MLB: What to watch on July 23, 2025

23 July 2025
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Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Score	Time (EDT)	Visitors	Score	Home	Score	Starter (V)	Score	Starter (H)	Score
13.1	3:40p	Houston Astros	4.9	Arizona Diamondbacks	7.9	Brandon Walter	8.9	Brandon Pfaadt	4.4
12.9	7:05p	Boston Red Sox	6.5	Philadelphia Phillies	5.8	Lucas Giolito	4.2	Jesús Luzardo	9.3
12.4	7:07p	New York Yankees	8.3	Toronto Blue Jays	6.5	Max Fried	5.3	Chris Bassitt	4.7
12.3	3:40p	Milwaukee Brewers	7.4	Seattle Mariners	5.5	Quinn Priester	6.7	Luis Castillo	5.1
10.5	12:10p	San Diego Padres	2.0	Miami Marlins	6.2	Dylan Cease	8.6	Sandy Alcantara	4.2
9.5	2:20p	Kansas City Royals	2.8	Chicago Cubs	9.6	Seth Lugo	4.2	Colin Rea	2.4
9.2	12:15p	San Francisco Giants	1.8	Atlanta Braves	5.7	Justin Verlander	2.6	Spencer Strider	8.2
9.1	8:05p	Athletics	7.7	Texas Rangers	5.8	JP Sears	0.7	Patrick Corbin	3.9
8.5	7:35p	Chicago White Sox	2.5	Tampa Bay Rays	6.2	Jonathan Cannon	2.5	Taj Bradley	5.8
8.2	6:40p	Baltimore Orioles	2.4	Cleveland Guardians	5.3	Zach Eflin	3.7	Slade Cecconi	5.0
8.2	4:10p	Minnesota Twins	3.4	Los Angeles Dodgers	6.6	Chris Paddack	2.0	Tyler Glasnow	4.4
8.1	3:10p	St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	Colorado Rockies	2.2	Andre Pallante	4.5	Tanner Gordon	No data
8.1	12:05p	Cincinnati Reds	3.7	Washington Nationals	2.3	Nick Lodolo	5.1	Michael Soroka	5.1
6.1	12:35p	Detroit Tigers	8.7	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.0	Troy Melton	No data	Bailey Falter	0.2
5.7	1:10p	Los Angeles Angels	3.0	New York Mets	8.3	Brock Burke	No data	Sean Manaea	No data

Notes:

Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 3:40p

Houston Astros

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	24.6	7.6%	-1.4	5.0	$221.9M	29.0	20.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.52	-0.69	-0.31	0.29	0.66	0.28	1.11	—	—
tNERD	0.52	-0.69	-0.31	0.29	0.00	0.00	1.11	4.00	4.92

Arizona Diamondbacks

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	65.6	9.2%	6.1	7.6	$189.5M	29.5	8.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.36	0.53	1.11	0.44	0.22	0.79	0.44	—	—
tNERD	1.36	0.53	1.11	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.44	4.00	7.88

Visiting starter: Brandon Walter

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	69	11.6%	67.4%	91.8 mph	28	18.3s	22	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.90	0.57	1.44	-0.89	-0.17	-0.17	—	—	—	—
pNERD	3.81	0.28	0.72	0.00	0.17	0.09	0.05	0.00	3.80	8.92

Home starter: Brandon Pfaadt

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	98	9.5%	64.3%	93.5 mph	26	19.3s	18	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.17	-0.44	0.14	-0.11	-0.69	0.63	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.35	-0.22	0.07	0.00	0.69	-0.32	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.42

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Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies, 7:05p

Boston Red Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	16.7	10.1%	1.5	11.4	$191.8M	28.7	-1.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.36	1.21	0.24	0.67	0.25	-0.02	-0.07	—	—
tNERD	0.36	1.21	0.24	0.67	0.00	0.02	0.00	4.00	6.51

Philadelphia Phillies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	17.6	8.6%	5.2	-3.1	$279.5M	29.5	11.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.38	0.07	0.94	-0.18	1.43	0.79	0.60	—	—
tNERD	0.38	0.07	0.94	-0.18	0.00	0.00	0.60	4.00	5.81

Visiting starter: Lucas Giolito

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	97	10.0%	65.2%	93.6 mph	30	19.1s	-12	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.23	-0.20	0.49	-0.06	0.35	0.47	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.47	-0.10	0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.24	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.18

Home starter: Jesús Luzardo

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	80	13.2%	64.0%	96.4 mph	27	16.9s	22	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.25	1.34	-0.02	1.22	-0.43	-1.30	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.50	0.67	-0.01	1.22	0.43	0.65	0.05	0.00	3.80	9.31

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New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07p

New York Yankees

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	87.4	11.4%	-5.1	9.5	$290.9M	29.1	14.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.81	2.21	-1.01	0.55	1.58	0.38	0.77	—	—
tNERD	1.81	2.21	-1.01	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.77	4.00	8.33

Toronto Blue Jays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	29.5	8.1%	-1.9	32.9	$248.4M	29.6	13.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.62	-0.31	-0.40	1.92	1.01	0.89	0.72	—	—
tNERD	0.62	-0.31	-0.40	1.92	0.00	0.00	0.72	4.00	6.55

Visiting starter: Max Fried

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	82	10.5%	63.5%	94.1 mph	31	20.5s	-21	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.13	0.04	-0.20	0.17	0.61	1.60	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.26	0.02	-0.10	0.17	0.00	-0.80	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.34

Home starter: Chris Bassitt

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	89	9.9%	65.3%	91.4 mph	36	20.4s	7	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.71	-0.25	0.54	-1.07	1.92	1.52	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.42	-0.13	0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.76	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.66

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Seattle Mariners, 3:40p

Milwaukee Brewers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-0.5	5.9%	11.9	20.0	$112.2M	27.6	-41.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.01	-1.99	2.21	1.17	-0.82	-1.14	-2.29	—	—
tNERD	0.01	-1.99	2.21	1.17	0.82	1.14	0.00	4.00	7.36

Seattle Mariners

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	59.1	9.1%	-5.2	-15.0	$152.8M	28.2	16.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.23	0.45	-1.02	-0.88	-0.27	-0.53	0.88	—	—
tNERD	1.23	0.45	-1.02	-0.88	0.27	0.53	0.88	4.00	5.47

Visiting starter: Quinn Priester

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	90	9.9%	63.1%	93.8 mph	24	16.8s	-8	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.65	-0.25	-0.37	0.03	-1.22	-1.38	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.30	-0.13	-0.19	0.03	1.22	0.69	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.73

Home starter: Luis Castillo

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	101	11.2%	64.8%	95.2 mph	32	17.9s	-16	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.00	0.38	0.33	0.67	0.88	-0.50	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.01	0.19	0.17	0.67	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.06

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San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins, 12:10p

San Diego Padres

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-11.3	6.9%	-3.3	-1.8	$209.3M	30.0	4.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.21	-1.23	-0.66	-0.11	0.49	1.30	0.21	—	—
tNERD	-0.21	-1.23	-0.66	-0.11	0.00	0.00	0.21	4.00	2.00

Miami Marlins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-17.1	7.9%	-2.6	0.1	$67.3M	26.8	2.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.33	-0.47	-0.53	0.01	-1.42	-1.96	0.10	—	—
tNERD	-0.33	-0.47	-0.53	0.01	1.42	1.96	0.10	4.00	6.16

Visiting starter: Dylan Cease

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	81	16.4%	63.8%	97.1 mph	29	20.0s	36	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.19	2.88	-0.09	1.54	0.09	1.20	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.38	1.44	-0.04	1.54	0.00	-0.60	0.05	0.00	3.80	8.56

Home starter: Sandy Alcantara

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	111	8.5%	64.0%	97.3 mph	29	17.6s	59	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.60	-0.93	0.01	1.63	0.09	-0.74	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.20	-0.46	0.01	1.63	0.00	0.37	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.19

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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20p

Kansas City Royals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-68.6	7.4%	-5.6	0.5	$130.0M	28.8	28.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.39	-0.85	-1.10	0.03	-0.58	0.08	1.55	—	—
tNERD	-1.39	-0.85	-1.10	0.03	0.58	0.00	1.55	4.00	2.83

Chicago Cubs

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	72.8	10.1%	8.6	22.8	$197.7M	30.6	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.51	1.21	1.58	1.33	0.33	1.91	-0.96	—	—
tNERD	1.51	1.21	1.58	1.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	9.64

Visiting starter: Seth Lugo

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	99	8.4%	63.8%	91.6 mph	35	16.8s	-29	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.12	-0.97	-0.07	-0.98	1.66	-1.38	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.23	-0.49	-0.04	0.00	0.00	0.69	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.20

Home starter: Colin Rea

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	110	8.6%	63.7%	93.7 mph	34	18.0s	-16	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.54	-0.88	-0.12	-0.02	1.40	-0.42	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.08	-0.44	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.00	0.00	3.80	2.43

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San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves, 12:15p

San Francisco Giants

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-22.0	7.3%	-5.5	4.6	$195.3M	29.3	-14.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.43	-0.92	-1.08	0.27	0.30	0.59	-0.79	—	—
tNERD	-0.43	-0.92	-1.08	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	1.83

Atlanta Braves

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-9.6	9.1%	-2.8	17.0	$216.2M	29.4	19.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.18	0.45	-0.57	0.99	0.58	0.69	1.05	—	—
tNERD	-0.18	0.45	-0.57	0.99	0.00	0.00	1.05	4.00	5.74

Visiting starter: Justin Verlander

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	115	11.4%	65.8%	94.0 mph	42	19.2s	9	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.84	0.47	0.75	0.12	3.49	0.55	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.68	0.24	0.37	0.12	0.00	-0.28	0.05	0.00	3.80	2.62

Home starter: Spencer Strider

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	86	15.9%	61.8%	95.6 mph	26	18.2s	1	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.89	2.64	-0.93	0.85	-0.69	-0.25	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.78	1.32	-0.47	0.85	0.69	0.13	0.05	0.00	3.80	8.16

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Athletics @ Texas Rangers, 8:05p

Athletics

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	4.6	8.2%	2.5	-17.7	$77.1M	27.6	37.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.11	-0.24	0.43	-1.03	-1.29	-1.14	2.05	—	—
tNERD	0.11	-0.24	0.43	-1.03	1.29	1.14	2.00	4.00	7.71

Texas Rangers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-49.0	8.6%	10.1	14.8	$219.7M	30.4	-26.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.98	0.07	1.87	0.86	0.63	1.71	-1.46	—	—
tNERD	-0.98	0.07	1.87	0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	5.82

Visiting starter: JP Sears

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	116	8.4%	63.7%	92.1 mph	29	20.4s	7	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.90	-0.97	-0.13	-0.75	0.09	1.52	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.80	-0.49	-0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.76	0.05	0.00	3.80	0.74

Home starter: Patrick Corbin

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	99	10.7%	62.8%	91.3 mph	35	18.3s	-1	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.12	0.13	-0.51	-1.12	1.66	-0.17	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.23	0.07	-0.26	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.93

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Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 7:35p

Chicago White Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-79.6	7.7%	-1.7	-24.5	$79.0M	27.5	-10.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.61	-0.62	-0.36	-1.43	-1.26	-1.25	-0.57	—	—
tNERD	-1.61	-0.62	-0.36	-1.43	1.26	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.49

Tampa Bay Rays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	10.9	7.7%	6.4	-18.7	$89.9M	27.4	-20.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.24	-0.62	1.17	-1.09	-1.12	-1.35	-1.12	—	—
tNERD	0.24	-0.62	1.17	-1.09	1.12	1.35	0.00	4.00	6.17

Visiting starter: Jonathan Cannon

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	116	8.2%	62.3%	93.1 mph	24	18.1s	-13	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.90	-1.07	-0.72	-0.29	-1.22	-0.33	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.80	-0.53	-0.36	0.00	1.22	0.17	0.00	0.00	3.80	2.49

Home starter: Taj Bradley

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	100	9.9%	62.8%	96.2 mph	24	18.9s	8	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.06	-0.25	-0.50	1.13	-1.22	0.31	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.11	-0.13	-0.25	1.13	1.22	-0.16	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.77

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Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians, 6:40p

Baltimore Orioles

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-19.1	8.8%	-1.7	-19.8	$167.6M	29.2	-4.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.37	0.22	-0.36	-1.16	-0.07	0.49	-0.23	—	—
tNERD	-0.37	0.22	-0.36	-1.16	0.07	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.40

Cleveland Guardians

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-51.5	6.7%	2.8	17.9	$102.3M	27.5	-15.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.03	-1.38	0.49	1.04	-0.95	-1.25	-0.85	—	—
tNERD	-1.03	-1.38	0.49	1.04	0.95	1.25	0.00	4.00	5.31

Visiting starter: Zach Eflin

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	104	9.1%	65.6%	91.8 mph	31	18.1s	45	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.18	-0.64	0.66	-0.89	0.61	-0.33	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.37	-0.32	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.05	0.00	3.80	3.66

Home starter: Slade Cecconi

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	98	9.9%	65.1%	94.1 mph	26	18.7s	-2	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.17	-0.25	0.48	0.17	-0.69	0.15	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.35	-0.13	0.24	0.17	0.69	-0.07	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.05

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Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:10p

Minnesota Twins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-1.1	8.9%	-6.3	-8.5	$145.1M	28.8	8.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.00	0.30	-1.23	-0.50	-0.37	0.08	0.44	—	—
tNERD	-0.00	0.30	-1.23	-0.50	0.37	0.00	0.44	4.00	3.38

Los Angeles Dodgers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	71.9	10.0%	1.7	-4.8	$341.0M	29.6	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.49	1.14	0.28	-0.28	2.26	0.89	-0.96	—	—
tNERD	1.49	1.14	0.28	-0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	6.63

Visiting starter: Chris Paddack

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	115	9.2%	64.6%	93.8 mph	29	18.6s	12	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.84	-0.59	0.24	0.03	0.09	0.07	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.68	-0.29	0.12	0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.05	0.00	3.80	1.99

Home starter: Tyler Glasnow

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	93	9.8%	58.2%	95.9 mph	31	18.5s	-17	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.47	-0.30	-2.46	0.99	0.61	-0.01	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.95	-0.15	-1.23	0.99	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.36

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, 3:10p

St. Louis Cardinals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	12.3	7.8%	-3.6	22.7	$135.7M	28.6	-8.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.27	-0.54	-0.72	1.33	-0.50	-0.13	-0.46	—	—
tNERD	0.27	-0.54	-0.72	1.33	0.50	0.13	0.00	4.00	4.96

Colorado Rockies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-106.2	8.3%	-4.1	-20.5	$125.9M	27.9	19.0	—	—
Z-Score	-2.15	-0.16	-0.82	-1.20	-0.63	-0.84	1.05	—	—
tNERD	-2.15	-0.16	-0.82	-1.20	0.63	0.84	1.05	4.00	2.19

Visiting starter: Andre Pallante

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	94	9.9%	61.3%	94.5 mph	26	19.7s	22	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.41	-0.25	-1.13	0.35	-0.69	0.96	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.83	-0.13	-0.57	0.35	0.69	-0.48	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.55

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Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals, 12:05p

Cincinnati Reds

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-19.5	7.1%	4.2	-7.4	$115.7M	28.7	-19.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.38	-1.08	0.75	-0.43	-0.77	-0.02	-1.07	—	—
tNERD	-0.38	-1.08	0.75	-0.43	0.77	0.02	0.00	4.00	3.66

Washington Nationals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-12.4	7.6%	-5.1	-30.0	$115.9M	27.5	-15.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.23	-0.69	-1.01	-1.75	-0.77	-1.25	-0.85	—	—
tNERD	-0.23	-0.69	-1.01	-1.75	0.77	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.33

Visiting starter: Nick Lodolo

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	96	10.9%	65.2%	93.8 mph	27	18.9s	-19	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.29	0.23	0.50	0.03	-0.43	0.31	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.59	0.12	0.25	0.03	0.43	-0.16	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.06

Home starter: Michael Soroka

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	96	9.8%	64.2%	93.9 mph	27	17.9s	28	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.29	-0.30	0.08	0.07	-0.43	-0.50	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.59	-0.15	0.04	0.07	0.43	0.25	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.08

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Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 12:35p

Detroit Tigers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	32.1	9.8%	6.8	5.5	$148.2M	27.6	-11.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.68	0.98	1.24	0.32	-0.33	-1.14	-0.62	—	—
tNERD	0.68	0.98	1.24	0.32	0.33	1.14	0.00	4.00	8.70

Pittsburgh Pirates

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-95.8	8.1%	-6.1	10.3	$88.9M	28.4	8.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.94	-0.31	-1.19	0.60	-1.13	-0.33	0.44	—	—
tNERD	-1.94	-0.31	-1.19	0.60	1.13	0.33	0.44	4.00	3.05

Home starter: Bailey Falter

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	121	7.3%	63.6%	92.1 mph	28	19.7s	-27	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.20	-1.50	-0.19	-0.75	-0.17	0.96	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-2.39	-0.75	-0.10	0.00	0.17	-0.48	0.00	0.00	3.80	0.25

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Los Angeles Angels @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Los Angeles Angels

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-7.9	11.0%	-3.0	-36.1	$203.8M	29.2	-5.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.14	1.90	-0.61	-2.11	0.41	0.49	-0.29	—	—
tNERD	-0.14	1.90	-0.61	-2.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	3.04

New York Mets

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	37.6	10.3%	3.7	5.5	$332.0M	29.7	21.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.79	1.37	0.66	0.32	2.14	1.00	1.16	—	—
tNERD	0.79	1.37	0.66	0.32	0.00	0.00	1.16	4.00	8.30

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