MLB: What to watch on July 24, 2025

24 July 2025
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Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Score	Time (EDT)	Visitors	Score	Home	Score	Starter (V)	Score	Starter (H)	Score
13.0	6:40p	Toronto Blue Jays	6.6	Detroit Tigers	8.4	Eric Lauer	4.4	Reese Olson	6.6
10.9	7:45p	San Diego Padres	2.1	St. Louis Cardinals	4.8	Yu Darvish	No data	Sonny Gray	7.5
8.9	8:10p	Athletics	7.6	Houston Astros	4.9	Luis Severino	2.6	Jason Alexander	No data
8.3	9:38p	Seattle Mariners	5.6	Los Angeles Angels	2.8	Logan Evans	3.6	Yusei Kikuchi	4.7
7.3	1:10p	Baltimore Orioles	2.1	Cleveland Guardians	5.3	Charlie Morton	3.8	Logan Allen	3.5

Notes:

Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, 6:40p

Toronto Blue Jays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	31.7	8.1%	-1.6	34.0	$248.4M	29.6	12.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.67	-0.36	-0.33	1.96	1.01	0.89	0.65	—	—
tNERD	0.67	-0.36	-0.33	1.96	0.00	0.00	0.65	4.00	6.60

Detroit Tigers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	28.3	9.8%	6.1	5.6	$148.2M	27.6	-12.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.60	0.95	1.10	0.32	-0.33	-1.14	-0.67	—	—
tNERD	0.60	0.95	1.10	0.32	0.33	1.14	0.00	4.00	8.45

Visiting starter: Eric Lauer

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	93	9.3%	66.3%	91.8 mph	30	19.9s	-24	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.47	-0.54	0.96	-0.89	0.36	1.12	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.95	-0.27	0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.56	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.39

Home starter: Reese Olson

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	91	13.0%	61.3%	94.5 mph	25	17.8s	-23	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.59	1.25	-1.17	0.35	-0.96	-0.58	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.19	0.63	-0.59	0.35	0.96	0.29	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.62

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San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45p

San Diego Padres

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-14.0	7.1%	-3.0	-1.2	$209.3M	30.0	3.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.27	-1.13	-0.59	-0.07	0.49	1.30	0.16	—	—
tNERD	-0.27	-1.13	-0.59	-0.07	0.00	0.00	0.16	4.00	2.10

St. Louis Cardinals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	9.3	7.9%	-4.3	21.9	$135.7M	28.6	-6.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.21	-0.52	-0.83	1.26	-0.50	-0.13	-0.34	—	—
tNERD	0.21	-0.52	-0.83	1.26	0.50	0.13	0.00	4.00	4.76

Home starter: Sonny Gray

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	72	12.1%	66.7%	92.0 mph	35	20.5s	28	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.74	0.82	1.15	-0.80	1.67	1.61	—	—	—	—
pNERD	3.47	0.41	0.58	0.00	0.00	-0.81	0.05	0.00	3.80	7.50

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Athletics @ Houston Astros, 8:10p

Athletics

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	0.2	8.3%	2.6	-18.2	$77.1M	27.6	37.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.03	-0.21	0.45	-1.05	-1.29	-1.14	2.03	—	—
tNERD	0.03	-0.21	0.45	-1.05	1.29	1.14	2.00	4.00	7.65

Houston Astros

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	25.3	7.6%	-1.5	3.1	$221.9M	29.0	22.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.54	-0.75	-0.31	0.18	0.66	0.28	1.21	—	—
tNERD	0.54	-0.75	-0.31	0.18	0.00	0.00	1.21	4.00	4.87

Visiting starter: Luis Severino

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	114	6.7%	63.2%	95.9 mph	31	17.4s	7	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.79	-1.81	-0.36	0.99	0.62	-0.90	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.58	-0.90	-0.18	0.99	0.00	0.45	0.05	0.00	3.80	2.63

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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38p

Seattle Mariners

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	57.8	9.1%	-5.1	-14.2	$152.8M	28.2	17.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.21	0.41	-0.98	-0.82	-0.27	-0.53	0.93	—	—
tNERD	1.21	0.41	-0.98	-0.82	0.27	0.53	0.93	4.00	5.56

Los Angeles Angels

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-8.5	11.0%	-3.9	-38.1	$203.8M	29.2	-4.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.15	1.87	-0.76	-2.20	0.41	0.49	-0.23	—	—
tNERD	-0.15	1.87	-0.76	-2.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.76

Visiting starter: Logan Evans

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	111	7.8%	62.6%	92.8 mph	24	16.8s	-10	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.61	-1.27	-0.61	-0.43	-1.22	-1.39	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.22	-0.64	-0.30	0.00	1.22	0.69	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.55

Home starter: Yusei Kikuchi

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	98	11.0%	63.9%	94.8 mph	34	18.7s	-22	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.17	0.28	-0.07	0.49	1.41	0.15	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.35	0.14	-0.04	0.49	0.00	-0.08	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.66

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Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians, 1:10p

Baltimore Orioles

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-20.1	8.8%	-3.0	-20.1	$167.6M	29.2	-3.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.39	0.18	-0.59	-1.16	-0.07	0.49	-0.17	—	—
tNERD	-0.39	0.18	-0.59	-1.16	0.07	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.11

Cleveland Guardians

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-53.8	6.7%	3.0	19.0	$102.3M	27.5	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.08	-1.44	0.52	1.10	-0.95	-1.25	-0.95	—	—
tNERD	-1.08	-1.44	0.52	1.10	0.95	1.25	0.00	4.00	5.29

Visiting starter: Charlie Morton

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	103	11.0%	63.5%	94.1 mph	41	18.5s	37	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.13	0.28	-0.21	0.17	3.24	-0.01	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.25	0.14	-0.11	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	3.80	3.80

Home starter: Logan Allen

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	111	7.6%	61.4%	90.3 mph	26	15.0s	-9	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.61	-1.37	-1.13	-1.58	-0.69	-2.84	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.22	-0.68	-0.56	0.00	0.69	1.42	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.45

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