MLB: What to watch on July 25, 2025

25 July 2025
mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Score	Time (EDT)	Visitors	Score	Home	Score	Starter (V)	Score	Starter (H)	Score
12.4	8:10p	Washington Nationals	2.2	Minnesota Twins	3.5	MacKenzie Gore	8.1	Zebby Matthews	11.0
12.0	9:38p	Seattle Mariners	5.7	Los Angeles Angels	2.7	Bryan Woo	7.8	José Soriano	7.9
11.6	10:15p	New York Mets	8.4	San Francisco Giants	2.0	Clay Holmes	3.2	Logan Webb	9.6
11.3	7:05p	Philadelphia Phillies	6.0	New York Yankees	8.2	Taijuan Walker	3.0	Will Warren	5.5
10.9	7:10p	Toronto Blue Jays	6.8	Detroit Tigers	8.5	José Berríos	2.5	Keider Montero	4.0
10.8	8:05p	Atlanta Braves	5.8	Texas Rangers	5.7	Joey Wentz	1.0	Nathan Eovaldi	9.0
10.6	6:40p	Arizona Diamondbacks	8.1	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.1	Ryne Nelson	4.1	Mike Burrows	5.9
10.1	7:10p	Los Angeles Dodgers	6.7	Boston Red Sox	6.5	Emmet Sheehan	No data	Brayan Bello	3.5
10.0	4:10p	Miami Marlins	6.1	Milwaukee Brewers	7.3	Cal Quantrill	2.3	Freddy Peralta	4.3
9.7	7:40p	Chicago Cubs	9.5	Chicago White Sox	2.6	Shota Imanaga	2.6	Adrian Houser	4.7
9.1	8:10p	Athletics	7.6	Houston Astros	4.8	Jeffrey Springs	2.0	Ryan Gusto	3.9
8.6	7:10p	Tampa Bay Rays	6.3	Cincinnati Reds	3.6	Zack Littell	4.6	Nick Martinez	2.7
8.4	8:10p	Cleveland Guardians	5.2	Kansas City Royals	2.9	Gavin Williams	5.2	Michael Wacha	3.5
7.8	7:15p	San Diego Padres	2.1	St. Louis Cardinals	4.8	Nick Pivetta	6.1	Miles Mikolas	2.5
6.0	7:05p	Colorado Rockies	2.2	Baltimore Orioles	2.1	Kyle Freeland	4.3	Dean Kremer	3.5

Notes:

Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins, 8:10p

Washington Nationals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-17.5	7.6%	-5.5	-29.1	$115.9M	27.5	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.34	-0.75	-1.06	-1.68	-0.77	-1.25	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	-0.34	-0.75	-1.06	-1.68	0.77	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.19

Minnesota Twins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-2.7	8.9%	-5.8	-7.8	$145.1M	28.8	8.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.03	0.25	-1.11	-0.45	-0.37	0.08	0.43	—	—
tNERD	-0.03	0.25	-1.11	-0.45	0.37	0.00	0.43	4.00	3.47

Visiting starter: MacKenzie Gore

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	81	14.0%	63.0%	95.4 mph	26	19.2s	6	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.20	1.75	-0.42	0.76	-0.70	0.56	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.40	0.87	-0.21	0.76	0.70	-0.28	0.05	0.00	3.80	8.09

Home starter: Zebby Matthews

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	77	13.8%	66.2%	96.6 mph	25	16.7s	77	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.44	1.65	0.94	1.31	-0.96	-1.46	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.88	0.82	0.47	1.31	0.96	0.73	0.05	0.00	3.80	11.03

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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38p

Seattle Mariners

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	58.4	9.1%	-4.6	-14.1	$152.8M	28.2	18.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.22	0.41	-0.89	-0.81	-0.27	-0.53	0.98	—	—
tNERD	1.22	0.41	-0.89	-0.81	0.27	0.53	0.98	4.00	5.71

Los Angeles Angels

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-10.3	10.9%	-3.9	-38.0	$203.8M	29.2	-3.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.19	1.80	-0.76	-2.19	0.41	0.49	-0.17	—	—
tNERD	-0.19	1.80	-0.76	-2.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.66

Visiting starter: Bryan Woo

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	86	12.0%	67.4%	95.5 mph	25	20.3s	-9	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.90	0.77	1.44	0.81	-0.96	1.45	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.80	0.39	0.72	0.81	0.96	-0.73	0.00	0.00	3.80	7.75

Home starter: José Soriano

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	86	11.4%	61.5%	97.2 mph	26	17.9s	7	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.90	0.48	-1.06	1.59	-0.70	-0.49	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.80	0.24	-0.53	1.59	0.70	0.25	0.05	0.00	3.80	7.89

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New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants, 10:15p

New York Mets

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	39.1	10.4%	3.6	6.1	$332.0M	29.7	21.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.82	1.42	0.63	0.35	2.14	1.00	1.15	—	—
tNERD	0.82	1.42	0.63	0.35	0.00	0.00	1.15	4.00	8.37

San Francisco Giants

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-19.1	7.6%	-6.4	6.4	$195.3M	29.3	-15.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.37	-0.75	-1.22	0.37	0.30	0.59	-0.83	—	—
tNERD	-0.37	-0.75	-1.22	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.02

Visiting starter: Clay Holmes

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	100	9.2%	63.3%	93.6 mph	32	19.2s	-12	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.06	-0.59	-0.31	-0.06	0.88	0.56	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.12	-0.30	-0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.28	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.19

Home starter: Logan Webb

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	67	10.9%	66.3%	92.7 mph	28	16.4s	10	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-2.04	0.24	0.97	-0.47	-0.17	-1.71	—	—	—	—
pNERD	4.08	0.12	0.49	0.00	0.17	0.85	0.05	0.00	3.80	9.55

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees, 7:05p

Philadelphia Phillies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	19.4	8.8%	5.3	-2.4	$279.5M	29.5	11.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.42	0.18	0.95	-0.14	1.43	0.79	0.60	—	—
tNERD	0.42	0.18	0.95	-0.14	0.00	0.00	0.60	4.00	6.00

New York Yankees

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	86.5	11.5%	-5.0	6.9	$290.9M	29.1	12.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.80	2.27	-0.96	0.40	1.58	0.38	0.65	—	—
tNERD	1.80	2.27	-0.96	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.65	4.00	8.15

Visiting starter: Taijuan Walker

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	107	7.6%	63.0%	92.4 mph	32	16.5s	-18	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.36	-1.37	-0.45	-0.61	0.88	-1.62	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.71	-0.69	-0.23	0.00	0.00	0.81	0.00	0.00	3.80	2.99

Home starter: Will Warren

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	86	9.9%	61.6%	93.2 mph	26	19.0s	36	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.90	-0.25	-1.04	-0.24	-0.70	0.40	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.80	-0.13	-0.52	0.00	0.70	-0.20	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.50

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, 7:10p

Toronto Blue Jays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	37.1	8.3%	-1.7	34.3	$248.4M	29.6	11.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.78	-0.21	-0.35	1.98	1.01	0.89	0.60	—	—
tNERD	0.78	-0.21	-0.35	1.98	0.00	0.00	0.60	4.00	6.80

Detroit Tigers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	27.3	9.8%	6.1	5.9	$148.2M	27.6	-13.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.58	0.95	1.10	0.34	-0.33	-1.14	-0.72	—	—
tNERD	0.58	0.95	1.10	0.34	0.33	1.14	0.00	4.00	8.45

Visiting starter: José Berríos

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	105	9.7%	63.7%	92.5 mph	31	19.9s	-10	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.56	0.62	1.13	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.47	-0.17	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.56	0.00	0.00	3.80	2.51

Home starter: Keider Montero

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	111	7.9%	67.3%	93.8 mph	24	18.5s	-5	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.60	-1.23	1.41	0.03	-1.22	-0.01	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.19	-0.61	0.70	0.03	1.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.95

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Atlanta Braves @ Texas Rangers, 8:05p

Atlanta Braves

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-11.2	9.1%	-2.9	19.2	$216.2M	29.4	20.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.21	0.41	-0.57	1.11	0.58	0.69	1.09	—	—
tNERD	-0.21	0.41	-0.57	1.11	0.00	0.00	1.09	4.00	5.83

Texas Rangers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-50.2	8.7%	10.4	13.2	$219.7M	30.4	-26.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.01	0.10	1.90	0.76	0.63	1.71	-1.44	—	—
tNERD	-1.01	0.10	1.90	0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	5.75

Visiting starter: Joey Wentz

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	121	11.1%	62.5%	94.1 mph	27	20.7s	17	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.20	0.33	-0.64	0.17	-0.43	1.78	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-2.39	0.17	-0.32	0.17	0.43	-0.89	0.05	0.00	3.80	1.02

Home starter: Nathan Eovaldi

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	66	13.2%	67.5%	94.1 mph	35	20.0s	-27	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-2.10	1.36	1.48	0.17	1.67	1.21	—	—	—	—
pNERD	4.20	0.68	0.74	0.17	0.00	-0.60	0.00	0.00	3.80	8.98

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40p

Arizona Diamondbacks

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	65.1	9.3%	6.5	7.4	$189.5M	29.5	10.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.36	0.56	1.17	0.43	0.22	0.79	0.54	—	—
tNERD	1.36	0.56	1.17	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.54	4.00	8.06

Pittsburgh Pirates

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-95.9	8.3%	-6.2	10.7	$88.9M	28.4	6.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.95	-0.21	-1.19	0.62	-1.13	-0.33	0.32	—	—
tNERD	-1.95	-0.21	-1.19	0.62	1.13	0.33	0.32	4.00	3.06

Visiting starter: Ryne Nelson

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	101	8.3%	64.9%	95.6 mph	27	20.1s	-17	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.00	-1.03	0.35	0.86	-0.43	1.29	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.00	-0.52	0.17	0.86	0.43	-0.65	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.11

Home starter: Mike Burrows

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	101	10.8%	62.6%	95.3 mph	25	17.1s	10	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.00	0.19	-0.62	0.72	-0.96	-1.14	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.00	0.09	-0.31	0.72	0.96	0.57	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.89

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox, 7:10p

Los Angeles Dodgers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	71.7	10.1%	2.0	-6.3	$341.0M	29.6	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.49	1.18	0.34	-0.36	2.26	0.89	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	1.49	1.18	0.34	-0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	6.65

Boston Red Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	17.4	10.1%	1.6	11.8	$191.8M	28.7	-4.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.38	1.18	0.26	0.68	0.25	-0.02	-0.23	—	—
tNERD	0.38	1.18	0.26	0.68	0.00	0.02	0.00	4.00	6.53

Home starter: Brayan Bello

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	102	8.3%	61.5%	95.2 mph	26	19.7s	-26	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.06	-1.03	-1.09	0.67	-0.70	0.97	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.12	-0.52	-0.55	0.67	0.70	-0.48	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.51

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Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p

Miami Marlins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-18.5	7.9%	-2.3	-0.4	$67.3M	26.8	2.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.36	-0.52	-0.46	-0.02	-1.42	-1.96	0.10	—	—
tNERD	-0.36	-0.52	-0.46	-0.02	1.42	1.96	0.10	4.00	6.12

Milwaukee Brewers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	2.1	6.0%	12.0	19.3	$112.2M	27.6	-42.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.07	-1.99	2.19	1.11	-0.82	-1.14	-2.31	—	—
tNERD	0.07	-1.99	2.19	1.11	0.82	1.14	0.00	4.00	7.34

Visiting starter: Cal Quantrill

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	106	8.7%	62.2%	93.5 mph	30	18.8s	19	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.30	-0.84	-0.78	-0.11	0.35	0.24	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.59	-0.42	-0.39	0.00	0.00	-0.12	0.05	0.00	3.80	2.33

Home starter: Freddy Peralta

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	99	12.2%	60.8%	95.0 mph	29	18.7s	-29	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.12	0.87	-1.38	0.58	0.09	0.16	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.24	0.43	-0.69	0.58	0.00	-0.08	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.29

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Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, 7:40p

Chicago Cubs

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	72.5	10.1%	8.5	22.6	$197.7M	30.6	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.51	1.18	1.54	1.30	0.33	1.91	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	1.51	1.18	1.54	1.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	9.54

Chicago White Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-77.0	7.8%	-1.6	-24.3	$79.0M	27.5	-14.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.56	-0.60	-0.33	-1.40	-1.26	-1.25	-0.78	—	—
tNERD	-1.56	-0.60	-0.33	-1.40	1.26	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.62

Visiting starter: Shota Imanaga

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	118	11.9%	66.8%	90.9 mph	31	18.7s	-59	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.02	0.72	1.20	-1.30	0.62	0.16	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-2.03	0.36	0.60	0.00	0.00	-0.08	0.00	0.00	3.80	2.65

Home starter: Adrian Houser

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	95	8.6%	64.7%	94.4 mph	32	18.2s	-49	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.36	-0.88	0.30	0.31	0.88	-0.25	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.72	-0.44	0.15	0.31	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.66

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Athletics @ Houston Astros, 8:10p

Athletics

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	1.2	8.2%	2.5	-18.3	$77.1M	27.6	39.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.05	-0.29	0.43	-1.05	-1.29	-1.14	2.13	—	—
tNERD	0.05	-0.29	0.43	-1.05	1.29	1.14	2.00	4.00	7.57

Houston Astros

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	22.6	7.6%	-1.3	3.5	$221.9M	29.0	21.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.49	-0.75	-0.28	0.20	0.66	0.28	1.15	—	—
tNERD	0.49	-0.75	-0.28	0.20	0.00	0.00	1.15	4.00	4.80

Visiting starter: Jeffrey Springs

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	114	10.7%	63.6%	90.5 mph	32	19.2s	-14	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.78	0.14	-0.16	-1.48	0.88	0.56	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.55	0.07	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.28	0.00	0.00	3.80	1.95

Home starter: Ryan Gusto

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	105	10.7%	64.9%	94.1 mph	26	20.1s	6	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.24	0.14	0.39	0.17	-0.70	1.29	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.47	0.07	0.19	0.17	0.70	-0.65	0.05	0.00	3.80	3.86

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Cincinnati Reds, 7:10p

Tampa Bay Rays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	14.3	7.7%	7.0	-18.5	$89.9M	27.4	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.32	-0.68	1.27	-1.07	-1.12	-1.35	-0.94	—	—
tNERD	0.32	-0.68	1.27	-1.07	1.12	1.35	0.00	4.00	6.30

Cincinnati Reds

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-20.7	7.1%	4.4	-6.9	$115.7M	28.7	-19.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.40	-1.14	0.78	-0.40	-0.77	-0.02	-1.05	—	—
tNERD	-0.40	-1.14	0.78	-0.40	0.77	0.02	0.00	4.00	3.64

Visiting starter: Zack Littell

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	101	9.3%	68.0%	91.8 mph	29	17.9s	-14	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.00	-0.54	1.68	-0.88	0.09	-0.49	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.00	-0.27	0.84	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.62

Home starter: Nick Martinez

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	109	8.3%	64.7%	92.5 mph	34	17.9s	0	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.48	-1.03	0.30	-0.56	1.40	-0.49	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.95	-0.52	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.00	3.80	2.72

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Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 8:10p

Cleveland Guardians

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-53.5	6.7%	2.7	19.2	$102.3M	27.5	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.08	-1.45	0.47	1.11	-0.95	-1.25	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	-1.08	-1.45	0.47	1.11	0.95	1.25	0.00	4.00	5.25

Kansas City Royals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-66.6	7.4%	-5.2	1.1	$130.0M	28.8	27.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.34	-0.91	-1.00	0.06	-0.58	0.08	1.48	—	—
tNERD	-1.34	-0.91	-1.00	0.06	0.58	0.00	1.48	4.00	2.86

Visiting starter: Gavin Williams

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	103	12.3%	60.8%	96.5 mph	25	19.3s	-14	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.12	0.92	-1.38	1.27	-0.96	0.64	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.24	0.46	-0.69	1.27	0.96	-0.32	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.24

Home starter: Michael Wacha

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	108	10.9%	65.0%	93.4 mph	33	17.9s	-22	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.42	0.24	0.40	-0.15	1.14	-0.49	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.83	0.12	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.53

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San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals, 7:15p

San Diego Padres

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-11.9	7.1%	-3.1	-1.2	$209.3M	30.0	3.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.22	-1.14	-0.61	-0.07	0.49	1.30	0.16	—	—
tNERD	-0.22	-1.14	-0.61	-0.07	0.00	0.00	0.16	4.00	2.12

St. Louis Cardinals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	13.4	8.0%	-4.6	21.6	$135.7M	28.6	-5.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.30	-0.44	-0.89	1.25	-0.50	-0.13	-0.28	—	—
tNERD	0.30	-0.44	-0.89	1.25	0.50	0.13	0.00	4.00	4.84

Visiting starter: Nick Pivetta

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	87	11.1%	66.0%	93.8 mph	32	18.5s	-16	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.84	0.33	0.85	0.03	0.88	-0.01	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.68	0.17	0.43	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.11

Home starter: Miles Mikolas

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	114	7.5%	66.1%	92.1 mph	36	17.3s	14	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.78	-1.42	0.88	-0.75	1.93	-0.98	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.55	-0.71	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.49	0.05	0.00	3.80	2.52

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Colorado Rockies @ Baltimore Orioles, 7:05p

Colorado Rockies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-104.9	8.3%	-4.0	-22.0	$125.9M	27.9	20.0	—	—
Z-Score	-2.13	-0.21	-0.78	-1.27	-0.63	-0.84	1.09	—	—
tNERD	-2.13	-0.21	-0.78	-1.27	0.63	0.84	1.09	4.00	2.18

Baltimore Orioles

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-20.4	8.8%	-3.0	-20.1	$167.6M	29.2	-3.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.40	0.18	-0.59	-1.16	-0.07	0.49	-0.17	—	—
tNERD	-0.40	0.18	-0.59	-1.16	0.07	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.10

Visiting starter: Kyle Freeland

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	100	9.7%	67.5%	91.9 mph	32	19.0s	11	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.06	-0.35	1.46	-0.84	0.88	0.40	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.12	-0.17	0.73	0.00	0.00	-0.20	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.33

Home starter: Dean Kremer

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	102	9.4%	65.8%	93.2 mph	29	19.3s	-1	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.06	-0.49	0.75	-0.24	0.09	0.64	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.12	-0.25	0.38	0.00	0.00	-0.32	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.49

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