MLB: What to watch on July 26, 2025

26 July 2025
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Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Score	Time (EDT)	Visitors	Score	Home	Score	Starter (V)	Score	Starter (H)	Score
17.3	6:10p	Toronto Blue Jays	6.8	Detroit Tigers	8.4	Kevin Gausman	4.8	Tarik Skubal	14.6
14.1	7:15p	Los Angeles Dodgers	6.5	Boston Red Sox	6.5	Clayton Kershaw	3.3	Garrett Crochet	11.8
12.8	7:10p	Athletics	7.8	Houston Astros	4.7	Jacob Lopez	4.0	Hunter Brown	9.1
11.6	7:05p	Atlanta Braves	5.9	Texas Rangers	5.8	Grant Holmes	5.3	Kumar Rocker	6.2
11.0	6:40p	Tampa Bay Rays	6.3	Cincinnati Reds	3.9	Ryan Pepiot	6.4	Andrew Abbott	5.4
10.5	1:05p	Philadelphia Phillies	6.1	New York Yankees	8.1	Ranger Suárez	5.5	Marcus Stroman	1.3
10.4	9:05p	New York Mets	8.4	San Francisco Giants	1.9	David Peterson	5.6	Robbie Ray	4.8
9.8	7:15p	Cleveland Guardians	5.3	Kansas City Royals	2.8	Tanner Bibee	4.3	Kris Bubic	7.3
9.6	7:10p	Miami Marlins	6.3	Milwaukee Brewers	7.4	Janson Junk	5.6	Jose Quintana	-0.1
9.3	6:40p	Arizona Diamondbacks	7.8	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.0	Merrill Kelly	5.5	Andrew Heaney	2.4
8.8	9:38p	Seattle Mariners	5.6	Los Angeles Angels	2.7	George Kirby	8.1	Tyler Anderson	1.3
8.6	7:10p	Chicago Cubs	9.5	Chicago White Sox	2.7	Cade Horton	5.9	Aaron Civale	-0.9
8.4	2:40p	Cleveland Guardians	5.3	Kansas City Royals	2.8	Gavin Williams	5.2	Michael Wacha	3.5
6.8	7:10p	Washington Nationals	2.1	Minnesota Twins	3.4	Mitchell Parker	1.4	Joe Ryan	6.6
5.7	7:05p	Colorado Rockies	2.2	Baltimore Orioles	2.3	Antonio Senzatela	0.6	Trevor Rogers	6.4
5.2	7:15p	San Diego Padres	2.4	St. Louis Cardinals	4.6	Randy Vásquez	-2.3	Matthew Liberatore	5.6

Notes:

Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, 6:10p

Toronto Blue Jays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	37.5	8.2%	-1.1	33.8	$248.4M	29.6	11.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.79	-0.29	-0.24	1.93	1.01	0.89	0.60	—	—
tNERD	0.79	-0.29	-0.24	1.93	0.00	0.00	0.60	4.00	6.78

Detroit Tigers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	24.3	9.8%	6.1	6.8	$148.2M	27.6	-13.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.52	0.95	1.09	0.39	-0.33	-1.14	-0.72	—	—
tNERD	0.52	0.95	1.09	0.39	0.33	1.14	0.00	4.00	8.42

Visiting starter: Kevin Gausman

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	98	12.4%	66.7%	94.5 mph	34	20.4s	1	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.18	0.97	1.13	0.35	1.40	1.53	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.37	0.48	0.57	0.35	0.00	-0.76	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.85

Home starter: Tarik Skubal

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	55	17.2%	70.5%	97.4 mph	28	17.6s	-1	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-2.77	3.31	2.75	1.68	-0.17	-0.74	—	—	—	—
pNERD	5.54	1.66	1.38	1.68	0.17	0.37	0.00	0.00	3.80	14.59

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox, 7:15p

Los Angeles Dodgers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	72.9	10.1%	1.0	-6.0	$341.0M	29.6	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.52	1.18	0.15	-0.34	2.26	0.89	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	1.52	1.18	0.15	-0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	6.51

Boston Red Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	14.1	10.0%	1.6	13.4	$191.8M	28.7	-5.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.31	1.10	0.26	0.77	0.25	-0.02	-0.28	—	—
tNERD	0.31	1.10	0.26	0.77	0.00	0.02	0.00	4.00	6.46

Visiting starter: Clayton Kershaw

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	105	10.1%	62.3%	89.1 mph	37	17.4s	-25	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.24	-0.16	-0.73	-2.13	2.18	-0.90	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.48	-0.08	-0.37	0.00	0.00	0.45	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.33

Home starter: Garrett Crochet

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	65	13.5%	67.1%	96.1 mph	26	17.2s	-13	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-2.17	1.50	1.29	1.08	-0.70	-1.06	—	—	—	—
pNERD	4.34	0.75	0.64	1.08	0.70	0.53	0.00	0.00	3.80	11.84

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Athletics @ Houston Astros, 7:10p

Athletics

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	12.8	8.4%	1.8	-19.7	$77.1M	27.6	39.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.28	-0.14	0.29	-1.12	-1.29	-1.14	2.14	—	—
tNERD	0.28	-0.14	0.29	-1.12	1.29	1.14	2.00	4.00	7.75

Houston Astros

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	20.5	7.6%	-2.1	5.5	$221.9M	29.0	21.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.44	-0.76	-0.43	0.32	0.66	0.28	1.15	—	—
tNERD	0.44	-0.76	-0.43	0.32	0.00	0.00	1.15	4.00	4.72

Visiting starter: Jacob Lopez

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	103	12.1%	61.7%	90.7 mph	27	18.4s	7	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.12	0.82	-1.00	-1.39	-0.44	-0.09	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.24	0.41	-0.50	0.00	0.44	0.05	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.01

Home starter: Hunter Brown

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	70	12.0%	62.2%	96.6 mph	26	19.6s	-6	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.87	0.77	-0.77	1.31	-0.70	0.88	—	—	—	—
pNERD	3.74	0.39	-0.39	1.31	0.70	-0.44	0.00	0.00	3.80	9.10

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Atlanta Braves @ Texas Rangers, 7:05p

Atlanta Braves

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-11.0	9.2%	-3.3	19.3	$216.2M	29.4	21.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.20	0.48	-0.65	1.10	0.58	0.69	1.15	—	—
tNERD	-0.20	0.48	-0.65	1.10	0.00	0.00	1.15	4.00	5.88

Texas Rangers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-49.5	8.7%	10.8	13.8	$219.7M	30.4	-28.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.00	0.09	1.96	0.79	0.63	1.71	-1.55	—	—
tNERD	-1.00	0.09	1.96	0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	5.84

Visiting starter: Grant Holmes

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	96	13.2%	62.9%	94.5 mph	29	18.3s	-4	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.30	1.36	-0.48	0.35	0.09	-0.17	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.61	0.68	-0.24	0.35	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.28

Home starter: Kumar Rocker

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	98	11.4%	65.2%	95.8 mph	25	19.5s	43	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.18	0.48	0.48	0.94	-0.96	0.80	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.37	0.24	0.24	0.94	0.96	-0.40	0.05	0.00	3.80	6.20

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Cincinnati Reds, 6:40p

Tampa Bay Rays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	11.8	7.7%	7.7	-20.1	$89.9M	27.4	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.26	-0.68	1.38	-1.14	-1.12	-1.35	-0.94	—	—
tNERD	0.26	-0.68	1.38	-1.14	1.12	1.35	0.00	4.00	6.29

Cincinnati Reds

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-16.4	7.2%	4.5	-5.6	$115.7M	28.7	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.32	-1.07	0.79	-0.32	-0.77	-0.02	-0.94	—	—
tNERD	-0.32	-1.07	0.79	-0.32	0.77	0.02	0.00	4.00	3.88

Visiting starter: Ryan Pepiot

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	94	11.8%	65.3%	95.1 mph	27	18.3s	-6	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.42	0.67	0.53	0.62	-0.44	-0.17	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.85	0.34	0.26	0.62	0.44	0.09	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.39

Home starter: Andrew Abbott

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	101	10.9%	66.4%	92.5 mph	26	17.9s	-52	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.00	0.23	1.01	-0.57	-0.70	-0.50	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.00	0.12	0.50	0.00	0.70	0.25	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.37

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees, 1:05p

Philadelphia Phillies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	25.2	8.8%	5.5	-1.2	$279.5M	29.5	9.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.54	0.17	0.98	-0.07	1.43	0.79	0.49	—	—
tNERD	0.54	0.17	0.98	-0.07	0.00	0.00	0.49	4.00	6.11

New York Yankees

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	87.0	11.5%	-4.8	5.0	$290.9M	29.1	13.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.81	2.26	-0.93	0.29	1.58	0.38	0.71	—	—
tNERD	1.81	2.26	-0.93	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.71	4.00	8.14

Visiting starter: Ranger Suárez

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	89	9.5%	65.5%	90.9 mph	29	18.0s	-26	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.72	-0.45	0.61	-1.30	0.09	-0.41	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.45	-0.23	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.54

Home starter: Marcus Stroman

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	115	7.7%	62.0%	89.7 mph	34	18.0s	25	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.84	-1.33	-0.87	-1.85	1.40	-0.41	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.68	-0.67	-0.44	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.05	0.00	3.80	1.27

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New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants, 9:05p

New York Mets

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	40.4	10.4%	4.1	6.4	$332.0M	29.7	19.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.85	1.41	0.72	0.37	2.14	1.00	1.04	—	—
tNERD	0.85	1.41	0.72	0.37	0.00	0.00	1.04	4.00	8.39

San Francisco Giants

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-19.7	7.5%	-6.4	6.8	$195.3M	29.3	-13.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.38	-0.84	-1.22	0.39	0.30	0.59	-0.72	—	—
tNERD	-0.38	-0.84	-1.22	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	1.95

Visiting starter: David Peterson

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	88	9.8%	64.5%	91.7 mph	29	17.7s	-15	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.78	-0.30	0.21	-0.94	0.09	-0.66	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.57	-0.15	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.65

Home starter: Robbie Ray

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	97	12.9%	64.1%	93.6 mph	33	18.7s	-24	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.24	1.21	0.03	-0.06	1.13	0.15	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.49	0.61	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.08	0.00	0.00	3.80	4.83

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Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 7:15p

Cleveland Guardians

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-54.1	6.7%	3.1	19.1	$102.3M	27.5	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.09	-1.46	0.53	1.09	-0.95	-1.25	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	-1.09	-1.46	0.53	1.09	0.95	1.25	0.00	4.00	5.27

Kansas City Royals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-67.1	7.4%	-5.2	1.0	$130.0M	28.8	27.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.36	-0.91	-1.00	0.06	-0.58	0.08	1.48	—	—
tNERD	-1.36	-0.91	-1.00	0.06	0.58	0.00	1.48	4.00	2.84

Visiting starter: Tanner Bibee

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	100	10.1%	63.7%	94.4 mph	26	19.9s	7	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.06	-0.16	-0.17	0.30	-0.70	1.12	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.12	-0.08	-0.08	0.30	0.70	-0.56	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.25

Home starter: Kris Bubic

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	82	13.8%	66.5%	92.2 mph	27	19.9s	-25	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.15	1.65	1.05	-0.71	-0.44	1.12	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.29	0.83	0.52	0.00	0.44	-0.56	0.00	0.00	3.80	7.32

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Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 7:10p

Miami Marlins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-16.6	7.9%	-2.2	0.2	$67.3M	26.8	3.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.32	-0.53	-0.44	0.01	-1.42	-1.96	0.16	—	—
tNERD	-0.32	-0.53	-0.44	0.01	1.42	1.96	0.16	4.00	6.26

Milwaukee Brewers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	0.4	6.0%	12.2	20.1	$112.2M	27.6	-42.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.03	-2.00	2.22	1.15	-0.82	-1.14	-2.32	—	—
tNERD	0.03	-2.00	2.22	1.15	0.82	1.14	0.00	4.00	7.35

Visiting starter: Janson Junk

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	93	9.1%	69.8%	93.8 mph	29	18.8s	-19	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.48	-0.65	2.46	0.03	0.09	0.23	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.97	-0.32	1.23	0.03	0.00	-0.12	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.58

Home starter: Jose Quintana

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	116	6.7%	60.6%	90.3 mph	36	19.6s	-30	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.90	-1.82	-1.46	-1.58	1.92	0.88	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.80	-0.91	-0.73	0.00	0.00	-0.44	0.00	0.00	3.80	-0.08

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40p

Arizona Diamondbacks

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	60.8	9.2%	6.1	8.0	$189.5M	29.5	9.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.27	0.48	1.09	0.46	0.22	0.79	0.49	—	—
tNERD	1.27	0.48	1.09	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.49	4.00	7.79

Pittsburgh Pirates

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-100.6	8.3%	-6.0	11.3	$88.9M	28.4	6.0	—	—
Z-Score	-2.05	-0.22	-1.15	0.65	-1.13	-0.33	0.32	—	—
tNERD	-2.05	-0.22	-1.15	0.65	1.13	0.33	0.32	4.00	3.02

Visiting starter: Merrill Kelly

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	88	10.8%	64.2%	92.1 mph	36	18.5s	-8	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.78	0.18	0.06	-0.75	1.92	-0.01	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.57	0.09	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.50

Home starter: Andrew Heaney

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	114	8.6%	64.0%	89.9 mph	34	17.1s	5	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.78	-0.89	-0.04	-1.76	1.40	-1.14	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.56	-0.45	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.57	0.05	0.00	3.80	2.40

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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38p

Seattle Mariners

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	55.9	9.2%	-4.5	-17.8	$152.8M	28.2	18.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.17	0.48	-0.87	-1.01	-0.27	-0.53	0.98	—	—
tNERD	1.17	0.48	-0.87	-1.01	0.27	0.53	0.98	4.00	5.56

Los Angeles Angels

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-14.2	10.9%	-3.6	-37.8	$203.8M	29.2	-5.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.27	1.80	-0.70	-2.15	0.41	0.49	-0.28	—	—
tNERD	-0.27	1.80	-0.70	-2.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.68

Visiting starter: George Kirby

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	81	11.2%	67.6%	95.9 mph	27	19.9s	42	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.21	0.38	1.51	0.99	-0.44	1.12	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.41	0.19	0.75	0.99	0.44	-0.56	0.05	0.00	3.80	8.07

Home starter: Tyler Anderson

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	125	11.4%	63.8%	89.1 mph	35	18.1s	-17	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.44	0.48	-0.12	-2.13	1.66	-0.33	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-2.88	0.24	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	3.80	1.26

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Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, 7:10p

Chicago Cubs

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	74.2	10.1%	8.2	21.9	$197.7M	30.6	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.55	1.18	1.48	1.25	0.33	1.91	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	1.55	1.18	1.48	1.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	9.45

Chicago White Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-71.1	7.8%	-2.0	-24.7	$79.0M	27.5	-14.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.44	-0.60	-0.41	-1.40	-1.26	-1.25	-0.78	—	—
tNERD	-1.44	-0.60	-0.41	-1.40	1.26	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.65

Visiting starter: Cade Horton

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	110	12.4%	63.9%	95.7 mph	23	17.7s	-10	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.54	0.97	-0.05	0.90	-1.48	-0.66	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.08	0.48	-0.03	0.90	1.48	0.33	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.89

Home starter: Aaron Civale

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	130	7.4%	62.1%	92.1 mph	30	18.6s	-13	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.74	-1.48	-0.81	-0.75	0.35	0.07	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-3.49	-0.74	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.04	0.00	0.00	3.80	-0.86

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Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 2:40p

Cleveland Guardians

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-54.1	6.7%	3.1	19.1	$102.3M	27.5	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.09	-1.46	0.53	1.09	-0.95	-1.25	-0.89	—	—
tNERD	-1.09	-1.46	0.53	1.09	0.95	1.25	0.00	4.00	5.27

Kansas City Royals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-67.1	7.4%	-5.2	1.0	$130.0M	28.8	27.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.36	-0.91	-1.00	0.06	-0.58	0.08	1.48	—	—
tNERD	-1.36	-0.91	-1.00	0.06	0.58	0.00	1.48	4.00	2.84

Visiting starter: Gavin Williams

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	103	12.3%	60.8%	96.5 mph	25	19.3s	-15	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.12	0.92	-1.39	1.26	-0.96	0.64	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.24	0.46	-0.69	1.26	0.96	-0.32	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.23

Home starter: Michael Wacha

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	108	10.9%	65.0%	93.4 mph	33	17.9s	-22	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.42	0.23	0.40	-0.16	1.13	-0.50	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.84	0.12	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.52

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Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins, 7:10p

Washington Nationals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-21.9	7.6%	-5.1	-29.9	$115.9M	27.5	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.43	-0.76	-0.98	-1.70	-0.77	-1.25	-0.94	—	—
tNERD	-0.43	-0.76	-0.98	-1.70	0.77	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.15

Minnesota Twins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-4.5	8.9%	-6.1	-8.4	$145.1M	28.8	9.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.07	0.25	-1.17	-0.48	-0.37	0.08	0.49	—	—
tNERD	-0.07	0.25	-1.17	-0.48	0.37	0.00	0.49	4.00	3.40

Visiting starter: Mitchell Parker

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	125	9.5%	66.0%	92.9 mph	25	20.2s	-3	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.44	-0.45	0.83	-0.39	-0.96	1.36	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-2.88	-0.23	0.41	0.00	0.96	-0.68	0.00	0.00	3.80	1.38

Home starter: Joe Ryan

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	84	12.3%	65.8%	93.5 mph	29	18.6s	-19	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.03	0.92	0.73	-0.11	0.09	0.07	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.05	0.46	0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.04	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.64

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Colorado Rockies @ Baltimore Orioles, 7:05p

Colorado Rockies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-104.2	8.3%	-3.6	-22.2	$125.9M	27.9	18.0	—	—
Z-Score	-2.12	-0.22	-0.70	-1.26	-0.63	-0.84	0.98	—	—
tNERD	-2.12	-0.22	-0.70	-1.26	0.63	0.84	0.98	4.00	2.15

Baltimore Orioles

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-18.0	9.0%	-3.1	-19.3	$167.6M	29.2	0.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.35	0.33	-0.61	-1.10	-0.07	0.49	-0.01	—	—
tNERD	-0.35	0.33	-0.61	-1.10	0.07	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.34

Visiting starter: Antonio Senzatela

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	123	7.2%	61.0%	94.9 mph	30	17.8s	14	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.32	-1.58	-1.31	0.53	0.35	-0.58	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-2.64	-0.79	-0.65	0.53	0.00	0.29	0.05	0.00	3.80	0.58

Home starter: Trevor Rogers

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	90	11.5%	65.9%	93.3 mph	27	18.2s	-47	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.66	0.53	0.80	-0.20	-0.44	-0.25	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.33	0.26	0.40	0.00	0.44	0.13	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.35

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San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals, 7:15p

San Diego Padres

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-12.1	7.1%	-2.8	-1.0	$209.3M	30.0	7.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.23	-1.15	-0.56	-0.05	0.49	1.30	0.38	—	—
tNERD	-0.23	-1.15	-0.56	-0.05	0.00	0.00	0.38	4.00	2.39

St. Louis Cardinals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	12.4	7.9%	-4.6	19.9	$135.7M	28.6	-7.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.28	-0.53	-0.89	1.13	-0.50	-0.13	-0.39	—	—
tNERD	0.28	-0.53	-0.89	1.13	0.50	0.13	0.00	4.00	4.62

Visiting starter: Randy Vásquez

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	146	6.4%	62.0%	93.0 mph	26	18.4s	-52	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	2.71	-1.97	-0.88	-0.34	-0.70	-0.09	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-5.41	-0.98	-0.44	0.00	0.70	0.05	0.00	0.00	3.80	-2.29

Home starter: Matthew Liberatore

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	99	9.8%	65.5%	94.3 mph	25	18.2s	3	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.12	-0.30	0.62	0.26	-0.96	-0.25	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.24	-0.15	0.31	0.26	0.96	0.13	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.60

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