MLB: What to watch on July 27, 2025

27 July 2025
mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Score	Time (EDT)	Visitors	Score	Home	Score	Starter (V)	Score	Starter (H)	Score
15.3	1:35p	Philadelphia Phillies	6.4	New York Yankees	8.1	Zack Wheeler	10.4	Carlos Rodón	5.7
14.4	2:10p	Miami Marlins	6.4	Milwaukee Brewers	7.2	Eury Pérez	7.6	Brandon Woodruff	No data
14.0	2:10p	Chicago Cubs	9.4	Chicago White Sox	2.5	Ben Brown	8.1	Grant Taylor	No data
12.9	1:35p	Arizona Diamondbacks	7.6	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.0	Zac Gallen	4.1	Paul Skenes	11.2
12.2	1:40p	Toronto Blue Jays	6.9	Detroit Tigers	8.3	Max Scherzer	3.3	Jack Flaherty	5.9
11.9	2:10p	Athletics	7.8	Houston Astros	4.6	J.T. Ginn	5.9	Colton Gordon	5.4
11.1	2:10p	Cleveland Guardians	5.3	Kansas City Royals	2.8	Joey Cantillo	7.6	Noah Cameron	6.5
11.0	4:07p	Seattle Mariners	5.6	Los Angeles Angels	2.7	Logan Gilbert	11.8	Kyle Hendricks	2.0
9.8	2:35p	Atlanta Braves	6.0	Texas Rangers	5.7	Bryce Elder	4.9	Jack Leiter	3.0
9.5	1:40p	Tampa Bay Rays	6.2	Cincinnati Reds	4.0	Shane Baz	6.0	Brady Singer	3.0
8.9	1:35p	Los Angeles Dodgers	6.4	Boston Red Sox	6.6	Dustin May	2.6	Walker Buehler	2.2
8.5	7:10p	New York Mets	8.4	San Francisco Giants	1.9	Kodai Senga	3.3	Matt Gage	No data
7.1	2:15p	San Diego Padres	2.3	St. Louis Cardinals	4.6	Stephen Kolek	3.4	Michael McGreevy	3.9
6.1	2:10p	Washington Nationals	2.2	Minnesota Twins	3.5	Jake Irvin	1.9	Cole Sands	4.6
2.9	1:35p	Colorado Rockies	2.0	Baltimore Orioles	2.6	Austin Gomber	0.1	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.1

Notes:

Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees, 1:35p

Philadelphia Phillies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	30.0	8.9%	6.1	-1.6	$279.5M	29.5	10.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.63	0.24	1.10	-0.09	1.43	0.79	0.54	—	—
tNERD	0.63	0.24	1.10	-0.09	0.00	0.00	0.54	4.00	6.43

New York Yankees

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	86.7	11.4%	-5.0	4.7	$290.9M	29.1	14.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.79	2.21	-0.97	0.27	1.58	0.38	0.76	—	—
tNERD	1.79	2.21	-0.97	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.76	4.00	8.06

Visiting starter: Zack Wheeler

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	64	14.3%	64.9%	96.0 mph	35	18.5s	-7	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-2.23	1.91	0.38	1.04	1.66	-0.01	—	—	—	—
pNERD	4.46	0.96	0.19	1.04	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	3.80	10.44

Home starter: Carlos Rodón

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	89	12.6%	62.4%	94.0 mph	32	18.2s	-12	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.72	1.07	-0.69	0.12	0.87	-0.26	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.45	0.54	-0.35	0.12	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.00	3.80	5.69

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 2:10p

Miami Marlins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-13.3	8.0%	-2.4	0.2	$67.3M	26.8	4.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.25	-0.46	-0.48	0.01	-1.42	-1.96	0.21	—	—
tNERD	-0.25	-0.46	-0.48	0.01	1.42	1.96	0.21	4.00	6.41

Milwaukee Brewers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	1.3	6.0%	11.4	19.8	$112.2M	27.6	-41.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.05	-2.04	2.09	1.13	-0.82	-1.14	-2.24	—	—
tNERD	0.05	-2.04	2.09	1.13	0.82	1.14	0.00	4.00	7.19

Visiting starter: Eury Pérez

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	99	12.1%	64.3%	98.0 mph	22	20.1s	-22	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.12	0.83	0.12	1.95	-1.74	1.28	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.25	0.41	0.06	1.95	1.74	-0.64	0.00	0.00	3.80	7.58

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, 2:10p

Chicago Cubs

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	75.6	10.1%	7.9	21.6	$197.7M	30.6	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.56	1.19	1.44	1.23	0.33	1.91	-0.88	—	—
tNERD	1.56	1.19	1.44	1.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	9.41

Chicago White Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-73.2	7.8%	-2.5	-24.5	$79.0M	27.5	-14.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.47	-0.62	-0.50	-1.39	-1.26	-1.25	-0.77	—	—
tNERD	-1.47	-0.62	-0.50	-1.39	1.26	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.53

Visiting starter: Ben Brown

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	91	12.4%	65.9%	95.8 mph	25	18.0s	70	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.60	0.98	0.80	0.94	-0.96	-0.42	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.21	0.49	0.40	0.94	0.96	0.21	0.05	0.00	3.80	8.06

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 1:35p

Arizona Diamondbacks

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	56.2	9.2%	5.3	9.6	$189.5M	29.5	8.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.17	0.48	0.95	0.55	0.22	0.79	0.43	—	—
tNERD	1.17	0.48	0.95	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.43	4.00	7.57

Pittsburgh Pirates

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-101.5	8.2%	-6.0	12.6	$88.9M	28.4	6.0	—	—
Z-Score	-2.05	-0.31	-1.15	0.72	-1.13	-0.33	0.32	—	—
tNERD	-2.05	-0.31	-1.15	0.72	1.13	0.33	0.32	4.00	2.99

Visiting starter: Zac Gallen

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	101	9.9%	62.8%	93.4 mph	29	17.0s	33	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.00	-0.26	-0.51	-0.16	0.09	-1.23	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.01	-0.13	-0.26	0.00	0.00	0.61	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.08

Home starter: Paul Skenes

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	76	13.8%	64.7%	98.1 mph	23	18.6s	-31	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.51	1.67	0.29	2.00	-1.48	0.07	—	—	—	—
pNERD	3.01	0.83	0.14	2.00	1.48	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3.80	11.24

Go back to top of page

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, 1:40p

Toronto Blue Jays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	40.8	8.3%	-1.3	32.8	$248.4M	29.6	13.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.85	-0.23	-0.28	1.87	1.01	0.89	0.70	—	—
tNERD	0.85	-0.23	-0.28	1.87	0.00	0.00	0.70	4.00	6.92

Detroit Tigers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	18.6	9.8%	6.0	6.7	$148.2M	27.6	-16.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.40	0.95	1.08	0.38	-0.33	-1.14	-0.88	—	—
tNERD	0.40	0.95	1.08	0.38	0.33	1.14	0.00	4.00	8.29

Visiting starter: Max Scherzer

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	103	9.9%	64.7%	93.6 mph	40	19.3s	24	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.12	-0.26	0.27	-0.06	2.97	0.63	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.23	-0.13	0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.32	0.05	0.00	3.80	3.31

Home starter: Jack Flaherty

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	88	12.0%	63.7%	92.8 mph	29	18.2s	30	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.78	0.78	-0.14	-0.43	0.09	-0.26	—	—	—	—
pNERD	1.57	0.39	-0.07	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.86

Go back to top of page

Athletics @ Houston Astros, 2:10p

Athletics

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	11.1	8.5%	1.7	-19.3	$77.1M	27.6	38.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.25	-0.07	0.28	-1.10	-1.29	-1.14	2.06	—	—
tNERD	0.25	-0.07	0.28	-1.10	1.29	1.14	2.00	4.00	7.80

Houston Astros

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	17.7	7.6%	-2.4	6.7	$221.9M	29.0	21.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.38	-0.78	-0.48	0.38	0.66	0.28	1.14	—	—
tNERD	0.38	-0.78	-0.48	0.38	0.00	0.00	1.14	4.00	4.64

Visiting starter: J.T. Ginn

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	74	9.9%	59.8%	93.8 mph	26	20.7s	33	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.63	-0.26	-1.82	0.03	-0.70	1.77	—	—	—	—
pNERD	3.25	-0.13	-0.91	0.03	0.70	-0.88	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.91

Home starter: Colton Gordon

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	98	8.2%	67.6%	91.4 mph	26	17.9s	14	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.18	-1.10	1.54	-1.07	-0.70	-0.50	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.37	-0.55	0.77	0.00	0.70	0.25	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.38

Go back to top of page

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 2:10p

Cleveland Guardians

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-53.7	6.8%	3.0	18.5	$102.3M	27.5	-15.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.07	-1.41	0.52	1.05	-0.95	-1.25	-0.82	—	—
tNERD	-1.07	-1.41	0.52	1.05	0.95	1.25	0.00	4.00	5.29

Kansas City Royals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-67.5	7.4%	-5.1	1.7	$130.0M	28.8	26.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.35	-0.94	-0.98	0.10	-0.58	0.08	1.41	—	—
tNERD	-1.35	-0.94	-0.98	0.10	0.58	0.00	1.41	4.00	2.81

Visiting starter: Joey Cantillo

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	79	12.2%	61.3%	91.8 mph	25	17.7s	19	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-1.33	0.88	-1.17	-0.89	-0.96	-0.66	—	—	—	—
pNERD	2.65	0.44	-0.58	0.00	0.96	0.33	0.05	0.00	3.80	7.65

Home starter: Noah Cameron

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	93	11.3%	62.9%	92.3 mph	25	16.5s	-31	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.48	0.43	-0.48	-0.66	-0.96	-1.63	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.97	0.22	-0.24	0.00	0.96	0.81	0.00	0.00	3.80	6.52

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:07p

Seattle Mariners

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	57.5	9.2%	-3.9	-18.7	$152.8M	28.2	17.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.19	0.48	-0.76	-1.06	-0.27	-0.53	0.92	—	—
tNERD	1.19	0.48	-0.76	-1.06	0.27	0.53	0.92	4.00	5.57

Los Angeles Angels

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-15.3	10.9%	-3.4	-37.7	$203.8M	29.2	-4.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.29	1.82	-0.67	-2.14	0.41	0.49	-0.23	—	—
tNERD	-0.29	1.82	-0.67	-2.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.72

Visiting starter: Logan Gilbert

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	54	16.7%	66.7%	95.4 mph	28	20.5s	27	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-2.83	3.10	1.13	0.76	-0.17	1.60	—	—	—	—
pNERD	5.66	1.55	0.57	0.76	0.17	-0.80	0.05	0.00	3.80	11.76

Home starter: Kyle Hendricks

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	117	7.5%	67.5%	86.4 mph	35	18.5s	3	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.96	-1.44	1.48	-3.37	1.66	-0.01	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.92	-0.72	0.74	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.00	3.80	1.96

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ Texas Rangers, 2:35p

Atlanta Braves

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-9.9	9.2%	-2.9	19.7	$216.2M	29.4	22.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.18	0.48	-0.57	1.12	0.58	0.69	1.19	—	—
tNERD	-0.18	0.48	-0.57	1.12	0.00	0.00	1.19	4.00	6.04

Texas Rangers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-50.7	8.6%	10.9	13.2	$219.7M	30.4	-31.0	—	—
Z-Score	-1.01	0.01	1.99	0.75	0.63	1.71	-1.70	—	—
tNERD	-1.01	0.01	1.99	0.75	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	5.74

Visiting starter: Bryce Elder

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	100	8.8%	62.0%	91.5 mph	26	16.0s	36	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.06	-0.80	-0.86	-1.03	-0.70	-2.03	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.13	-0.40	-0.43	0.00	0.70	1.02	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.86

Home starter: Jack Leiter

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	117	10.1%	62.4%	97.0 mph	25	20.8s	-11	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.96	-0.16	-0.71	1.49	-0.96	1.85	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.92	-0.08	-0.35	1.49	0.96	-0.92	0.00	0.00	3.80	2.98

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cincinnati Reds, 1:40p

Tampa Bay Rays

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	9.0	7.7%	7.9	-22.0	$89.9M	27.4	-17.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.20	-0.70	1.44	-1.25	-1.12	-1.35	-0.93	—	—
tNERD	0.20	-0.70	1.44	-1.25	1.12	1.35	0.00	4.00	6.16

Cincinnati Reds

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-16.4	7.2%	4.9	-5.5	$115.7M	28.7	-19.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.31	-1.09	0.88	-0.31	-0.77	-0.02	-1.04	—	—
tNERD	-0.31	-1.09	0.88	-0.31	0.77	0.02	0.00	4.00	3.95

Visiting starter: Shane Baz

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	95	10.9%	64.5%	96.8 mph	26	20.8s	19	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.36	0.24	0.20	1.40	-0.70	1.85	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.73	0.12	0.10	1.40	0.70	-0.92	0.05	0.00	3.80	5.97

Home starter: Brady Singer

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	110	8.9%	61.7%	92.1 mph	28	16.2s	2	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.54	-0.75	-1.01	-0.75	-0.17	-1.87	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.08	-0.38	-0.50	0.00	0.17	0.94	0.05	0.00	3.80	3.00

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox, 1:35p

Los Angeles Dodgers

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	73.8	10.1%	0.5	-5.8	$341.0M	29.6	-13.0	—	—
Z-Score	1.53	1.19	0.06	-0.33	2.26	0.89	-0.72	—	—
tNERD	1.53	1.19	0.06	-0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	6.44

Boston Red Sox

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	16.0	10.0%	2.1	14.1	$191.8M	28.7	-3.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.35	1.11	0.36	0.80	0.25	-0.02	-0.17	—	—
tNERD	0.35	1.11	0.36	0.80	0.00	0.02	0.00	4.00	6.64

Visiting starter: Dustin May

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	107	8.2%	62.3%	94.9 mph	27	20.0s	9	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.36	-1.10	-0.76	0.53	-0.44	1.20	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.72	-0.55	-0.38	0.53	0.44	-0.60	0.05	0.00	3.80	2.57

Home starter: Walker Buehler

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	112	7.8%	62.6%	94.1 mph	30	17.3s	23	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.66	-1.29	-0.60	0.16	0.35	-0.98	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.32	-0.65	-0.30	0.16	0.00	0.49	0.05	0.00	3.80	2.24

Go back to top of page

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants, 7:10p

New York Mets

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	39.8	10.3%	4.7	6.1	$332.0M	29.7	20.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.83	1.34	0.84	0.35	2.14	1.00	1.08	—	—
tNERD	0.83	1.34	0.84	0.35	0.00	0.00	1.08	4.00	8.45

San Francisco Giants

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-19.8	7.5%	-6.5	6.6	$195.3M	29.3	-11.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.38	-0.86	-1.24	0.38	0.30	0.59	-0.61	—	—
tNERD	-0.38	-0.86	-1.24	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	1.89

Visiting starter: Kodai Senga

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	99	12.5%	60.2%	93.8 mph	32	19.7s	-54	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.12	1.02	-1.63	0.03	0.87	0.96	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.25	0.51	-0.81	0.03	0.00	-0.48	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.29

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals, 2:15p

San Diego Padres

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-11.9	7.0%	-2.9	-1.3	$209.3M	30.0	8.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.22	-1.25	-0.57	-0.07	0.49	1.30	0.43	—	—
tNERD	-0.22	-1.25	-0.57	-0.07	0.00	0.00	0.43	4.00	2.31

St. Louis Cardinals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	9.3	8.0%	-4.6	20.0	$135.7M	28.6	-8.0	—	—
Z-Score	0.21	-0.46	-0.89	1.14	-0.50	-0.13	-0.44	—	—
tNERD	0.21	-0.46	-0.89	1.14	0.50	0.13	0.00	4.00	4.62

Visiting starter: Stephen Kolek

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	104	7.7%	62.9%	93.9 mph	28	17.2s	4	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.18	-1.34	-0.48	0.07	-0.17	-1.06	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-0.35	-0.67	-0.24	0.07	0.17	0.53	0.05	0.00	3.80	3.36

Home starter: Michael McGreevy

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	100	8.0%	62.4%	92.4 mph	24	19.2s	-14	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.06	-1.20	-0.72	-0.61	-1.22	0.55	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.13	-0.60	-0.36	0.00	1.22	-0.28	0.00	0.00	3.80	3.91

Go back to top of page

Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins, 2:10p

Washington Nationals

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-19.5	7.7%	-5.4	-29.4	$115.9M	27.5	-19.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.38	-0.70	-1.04	-1.67	-0.77	-1.25	-1.04	—	—
tNERD	-0.38	-0.70	-1.04	-1.67	0.77	1.25	0.00	4.00	2.23

Minnesota Twins

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-3.6	8.9%	-6.1	-8.1	$145.1M	28.8	11.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.05	0.24	-1.17	-0.46	-0.37	0.08	0.59	—	—
tNERD	-0.05	0.24	-1.17	-0.46	0.37	0.00	0.59	4.00	3.53

Visiting starter: Jake Irvin

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	116	7.3%	64.8%	92.1 mph	28	17.9s	1	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.90	-1.54	0.32	-0.75	-0.17	-0.50	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.80	-0.77	0.16	0.00	0.17	0.25	0.05	0.00	3.80	1.86

Home starter: Cole Sands

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	100	9.4%	65.6%	94.6 mph	27	19.3s	5	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	-0.06	-0.50	0.67	0.39	-0.44	0.63	—	—	—	—
pNERD	0.13	-0.25	0.34	0.39	0.44	-0.32	0.05	0.00	3.80	4.57

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ Baltimore Orioles, 1:35p

Colorado Rockies

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-108.9	8.3%	-3.5	-22.1	$125.9M	27.9	17.0	—	—
Z-Score	-2.20	-0.23	-0.69	-1.26	-0.63	-0.84	0.92	—	—
tNERD	-2.20	-0.23	-0.69	-1.26	0.63	0.84	0.92	4.00	2.02

Baltimore Orioles

	Batting Runs	Barrel %	Baserunning	Fielding	Payroll	Age	Luck	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	-9.8	9.1%	-2.9	-19.2	$167.6M	29.2	-4.0	—	—
Z-Score	-0.18	0.40	-0.57	-1.09	-0.07	0.49	-0.23	—	—
tNERD	-0.18	0.40	-0.57	-1.09	0.07	0.00	0.00	4.00	2.63

Visiting starter: Austin Gomber

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	133	7.8%	67.1%	89.4 mph	31	18.1s	-3	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	1.92	-1.29	1.29	-1.99	0.61	-0.34	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-3.84	-0.65	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.00	3.80	0.13

Home starter: Tomoyuki Sugano

	xFIP-	SwStr%	Strike %	Velocity	Age	Pace	Luck	KN%	Constant	TOTAL
Raw Stat	115	7.6%	63.0%	92.5 mph	35	18.8s	-2	0.0%	—	—
Z-Score	0.84	-1.39	-0.46	-0.57	1.66	0.23	—	—	—	—
pNERD	-1.68	-0.70	-0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	0.00	3.80	1.08

Go back to top of page

← Previous
MLB: What to watch on July 26, 2025
Next →
MLB: What to watch on July 28, 2025