MLB: What to watch on July 28, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.
This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).
Detail
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40p
Summary
The Cubs-Brewers matchup presents a fascinating contrast between veteran excellence and rookie brilliance that makes it exceptionally watchable. Boyd, 34, is having the best season of his career in his first year with the Cubs, as he has a 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and 108 strikeouts over 118 2⁄3 innings. He's just one strikeout away from 1,000 for his career. His pNERD of 5.59 undersells what's been a remarkable comeback campaign, especially considering he has a 0.67 ERA in four July starts. The Cubs' tNERD of 9.47 reflects their well-rounded excellence, with strong offensive metrics (batting runs z-score of 1.56) and solid fielding.
But the real story is Misiorowski, whose 12.28 pNERD is backed by genuinely jaw-dropping numbers. Misiorowski has been nothing short of great to begin his career, with just eight runs allowed (five of which came in a single outing) across 29 1⁄3 innings while striking out 40. The 23-year-old's meteoric rise culminated in being named to the National League All-Star team as a replacement for Chicago Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd, Major League Baseball announced in a Friday night shocker. Misiorowski, 23, is the fastest player ever to make an MLB All-Star Game by number of games played. His 99.4 mph velocity (z-score of 2.60) and elite swinging strike rate make him appointment viewing.
This NL Central showdown between tied teams features a career-year veteran chasing 1,000 strikeouts against a rookie phenom who just made All-Star history in his first month, creating must-see theater with legitimate division implications.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs - Brew Crew Ball
- Cubs vs. Brewers (Jul 28, 2025) Live Score - ESPN
- Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski Gets Surprise All-Star Nod After Cubs Pitcher Bows Out
- Jacob Misiorowski named 2025 All-Star
- Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Preview - 07/28/2025 - MLB Stories
- Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs July 28th 2025
- Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski secures All-Star spot
- Former Shuckers prospect, Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski added to 2025 MLB All-Star Game after 5 career starts
- Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction - 7/28/2025
Chicago Cubs
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 75.4 | 10.1% | 8.2 | 22.3 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -17.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 1.56 | 1.21 | 1.45 | 1.25 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.92 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.56 | 1.21 | 1.45 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 9.47 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 1.9 | 6.0% | 11.9 | 20.7 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -39.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.06 | -2.03 | 2.13 | 1.16 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -2.10 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.06 | -2.03 | 2.13 | 1.16 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.28 |
Visiting starter: Matthew Boyd
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 93 | 10.6% | 67.8% | 93.2 mph | 34 | 18.5s | -38 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.47 | 0.08 | 1.60 | -0.25 | 1.38 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.95 | 0.04 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.59 |
Home starter: Jacob Misiorowski
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 70 | 14.9% | 67.2% | 99.4 mph | 23 | 19.7s | -9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.85 | 2.21 | 1.33 | 2.60 | -1.48 | 0.96 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.71 | 1.10 | 0.66 | 2.00 | 1.48 | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.28 |
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, 7:10p
Summary
This Dodgers-Reds matchup features a compelling contrast between rookie Chase Burns, the second-overall pick in the 2024 draft making his sixth major league start, who has struck out 35 percent of his batters faced, including 10 strikeouts in each of his last two starts but allowed six runs in his last start and seven runs in another, and has a 6.65 ERA thus far. His pNERD of 12.39 reflects his elite swing-and-miss ability (98.2 mph velocity, excellent SwStr%) despite the early career volatility. On the other side, Yamamoto has put up a 2.55 ERA and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings across 20 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .197 to his opponents and enters this outing with 11 quality starts under his belt this year. The Dodgers' massive payroll advantage ($341M vs $115.7M) translates to superior offensive firepower, with their 6.23 tNERD driven by strong batting runs and barrel rate metrics. The Reds swept the Dodgers in Cincinnati last season and won the season series against Los Angeles, four games to three, adding historical intrigue to this opener. Burns' extreme inconsistency paired with his dominant strikeout potential creates the kind of high-variance entertainment that makes games unpredictable, while Yamamoto's steady excellence provides a fascinating contrast in approaches. This game offers the perfect recipe for watchability: a proven ace facing off against a wildly talented but erratic rookie phenom, with the potential for either a pitcher's duel or an offensive explosion depending on which version of Burns shows up.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Dodgers at Reds game info July 28, Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati - True Blue LA
- Dodgers vs. Reds (Jul 28, 2025) Pregame - ESPN
- Dodgers vs. Reds Probable Starting Pitchers - July 28 - Bleacher Nation
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto replaced on 2025 MLB All-Star Game roster
- Dodgers vs. Reds Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Pick - 7/28/2025
- Dodgers vs. Reds: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters – July 28 - Bleacher Nation
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Series July 28-30: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions - Bleacher Nation
- 2025 MLB All-Star Game: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Replaced By Reds’ Andrew Abbott | Yardbarker
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 75.4 | 10.1% | -0.7 | -6.6 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -10.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 1.56 | 1.21 | -0.17 | -0.37 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.56 | 1.21 | -0.17 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.23 |
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -19.2 | 7.1% | 5.6 | -5.8 | $115.7M | 28.7 | -20.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.37 | -1.16 | 0.98 | -0.33 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -1.08 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.37 | -1.16 | 0.98 | -0.33 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
Visiting starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 76 | 11.6% | 63.5% | 95.2 mph | 26 | 18.6s | -14 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.49 | 0.57 | -0.22 | 0.67 | -0.70 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.99 | 0.29 | -0.11 | 0.67 | 0.70 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.30 |
Home starter: Chase Burns
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 72 | 13.6% | 64.3% | 98.2 mph | 22 | 17.3s | 82 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.73 | 1.56 | 0.11 | 2.05 | -1.74 | -0.98 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.47 | 0.78 | 0.06 | 2.00 | 1.74 | 0.49 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.39 |
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 7:05p
Summary
The absence of Aaron Judge from the Yankees lineup adds intrigue to a matchup that features Drew Rasmussen's stellar 2.93 ERA against Cam Schlittler making just his third career start with a 4.35 ERA. Rasmussen brings legitimate quality to the mound with his 6.59 pNERD, supported by a 6-1 record with 2.60 ERA over his past 12 starts and a dominant 0.34 ERA in five career appearances against the Yankees. The Yankees' offensive firepower remains formidable even without Judge, as evidenced by their 8.11 tNERD driven by exceptional batting runs and barrel rate metrics that dwarf Tampa Bay's more modest offensive production. The Rays enter riding a seven-game road slide, though their solid baserunning component provides some entertainment value. Schlittler's outing could serve as an audition for a potential trade, adding another layer of significance to his performance against a pitcher who has historically dominated his team. This game offers the compelling narrative of a proven pitcher in Rasmussen facing a Yankees offense missing its biggest star, while the rookie Schlittler tries to prove his worth in what amounts to a high-stakes evaluation.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Drew Rasmussen - Tampa Bay Rays Starting Pitcher - ESPN
- Drew Rasmussen Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News | Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction - 7/28/2025
- Drew Rasmussen Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com
- Rays look to end 7-game road slide, play the Yankees - Yahoo Sports
- Yankees vs. Rays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Rays look to end 7-game road slide, play the Yankees - Yahoo Sports
- Drew Rasmussen against the Yankees | 07/28/2025 | Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cincinnati Reds Live Coverage, Stats, and Updates - July 27, 2025 Gametracker - CBSSports.com
- Ryan McMahon 'looks great' as Yankees open 4-game set vs. Rays - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 5.0 | 7.7% | 7.7 | -23.4 | $89.9M | 27.4 | -18.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.12 | -0.68 | 1.36 | -1.31 | -1.12 | -1.35 | -0.97 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.12 | -0.68 | 1.36 | -1.31 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.96 |
New York Yankees
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 87.4 | 11.3% | -4.6 | 5.1 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 14.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 1.80 | 2.16 | -0.88 | 0.29 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.75 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.80 | 2.16 | -0.88 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 4.00 | 8.11 |
Visiting starter: Drew Rasmussen
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 84 | 8.9% | 65.4% | 95.7 mph | 29 | 18.6s | -12 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.01 | -0.76 | 0.56 | 0.90 | 0.08 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.03 | -0.38 | 0.28 | 0.90 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.59 |
Home starter: Cam Schlittler
No detailed stats available
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres, 9:40p
Summary
The Mets-Padres matchup presents a fascinating study in contrasts that drives the solid 12.52 gNERD score. The Mets arrive riding a seven-game winning streak, playing some of the best baseball in the major leagues, while the Padres hold a 57-49 record and are four games back in the NL West. Dylan Cease's impressive 8.24 pNERD makes him the clear draw here - he's posted 144 strikeouts in 113.2 innings with a strong 29.6 percent strikeout rate, though he's not pitching all that well despite the gaudy K numbers, with home runs being a problem at 1.27 per nine. Frankie Montas, making just his sixth start since joining the Mets well into the season, has been better in his last two outings, allowing three earned runs over 10.2 innings, though his overall 5.42 pNERD reflects middling results.
The Mets' offensive firepower drives their stellar 8.87 tNERD, with their impressive barrel rate z-score of 1.45 translating to real production from Juan Soto's 25 home runs and Pete Alonso's 22 homers and power presence. Meanwhile, the Padres' anemic 2.52 tNERD reflects their -1.24 barrel rate z-score, though Manny Machado went 4-for-5 with 3 RBIs in their recent 9-2 win, while Fernando Tatis Jr. contributed 2 hits and 3 runs. Adding intrigue, Cease's name has come up in trade rumors involving the Mets, creating an awkward subplot. This game offers the compelling combination of a hot team with superior offensive metrics facing a quality strikeout pitcher whose trade value might be on display, making it a worthwhile watch despite the Padres' offensive struggles.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Red-hot Mets take their winning streak to southern California for series against Padres
- Mets vs. Padres (Jul 28, 2025) Live Score - ESPN
- New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction - 7/28/2025
- Mets at Padres: How to watch on SNY on July 28, 2025 - Yahoo Sports
- Padres vs. Mets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Mets at Padres prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends, and stats for July 28 - Yahoo Sports
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Padres Face Red-Hot Mets Amid Trade Rumors
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres - July 28, 2025 | FOX Sports
- July/August 2025 Home Games - San Diego Padres Schedule | Petco Park Insider
New York Mets
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 43.6 | 10.4% | 4.8 | 7.1 | $332.0M | 29.7 | 24.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.91 | 1.45 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 1.28 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.91 | 1.45 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 4.00 | 8.87 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -7.2 | 7.0% | -2.5 | -1.8 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 9.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.12 | -1.24 | -0.50 | -0.10 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.48 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.12 | -1.24 | -0.50 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 4.00 | 2.52 |
Visiting starter: Frankie Montas
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 94 | 12.4% | 65.8% | 95.5 mph | 32 | 20.8s | 23 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.41 | 0.97 | 0.74 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 1.85 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.83 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 0.81 | 0.00 | -0.92 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.42 |
Home starter: Dylan Cease
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 83 | 16.1% | 63.6% | 97.1 mph | 29 | 20.0s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.07 | 2.80 | -0.20 | 1.54 | 0.08 | 1.20 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.15 | 1.40 | -0.10 | 1.54 | 0.00 | -0.60 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.24 |
Atlanta Braves @ Kansas City Royals, 7:40p
Summary
This matchup offers a fascinating study in contrasts between a high-octane young ace trying to recapture his dominance and a crafty veteran defying Father Time. Spencer Strider (4-8, 3.72 ERA) brings an impressive 89 strikeouts in 72.2 innings and a monstrous 7.83 pNERD score that reflects his elite swing-and-miss stuff, particularly his 95.6 mph fastball velocity and otherworldly swinging strike rate. However, Strider has allowed three runs in three of his last four starts, including giving up two home runs while yielding three other hits and three walks against San Francisco, and he's openly frustrated with his inconsistency after missing most of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The intrigue deepens with 45-year-old Rich Hill making just his second start since signing with Kansas City, his 14th MLB team. Hill has never suffered a losing decision against Atlanta, though his 0.00 pNERD reflects minimal recent data. The Braves enter on a five-game skid with all five members of their Opening Day rotation on the injured list, while Kansas City ranks 29th in runs scored but boasts the second-best team ERA in baseball. The Braves' superior fielding and luck metrics suggest they're better than their 44-60 record indicates, but their offensive struggles (-66.8 batting runs for Kansas City, -12.7 for Atlanta) could make this a pitcher's duel. This game's 12.24 gNERD score is driven almost entirely by Strider's elite strikeout potential, making it a must-watch for fans who appreciate dominant pitching performances, even if the offensive fireworks may be limited.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Braves vs. Royals (Jul 28, 2025) Live Score - ESPN
- Braves aim to break slide in matchup with the Royals -newspressnow.com
- MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks - July 28th - Sports Gambling Podcast
- Royals LHP Rich Hill, 45, beating Father Time with Braves up next - CBSSports.com
- Royals LHP Rich Hill, 45, beating Father Time with Braves up next | Yardbarker
- Spencer Strider - Wikipedia
- Spencer Strider - Atlanta Braves Starting Pitcher - ESPN
- Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals Pick - 7/28/2025
- Braves vs. Royals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Spencer Strider Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com
Atlanta Braves
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -12.7 | 9.2% | -3.3 | 19.6 | $216.2M | 29.4 | 22.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.24 | 0.50 | -0.64 | 1.10 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 1.18 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.24 | 0.50 | -0.64 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.18 | 4.00 | 5.90 |
Kansas City Royals
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -66.8 | 7.4% | -4.6 | 1.7 | $130.0M | 28.8 | 26.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.34 | -0.92 | -0.88 | 0.09 | -0.58 | 0.08 | 1.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.34 | -0.92 | -0.88 | 0.09 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 4.00 | 2.92 |
Visiting starter: Spencer Strider
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 87 | 15.3% | 61.4% | 95.6 mph | 26 | 18.2s | 3 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.83 | 2.41 | -1.15 | 0.86 | -0.70 | -0.25 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.67 | 1.20 | -0.57 | 0.86 | 0.70 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.83 |
Home starter: Rich Hill
No detailed stats available
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45p
Summary
With a decent gNERD score of 11.46, this Marlins-Cardinals matchup offers moderate entertainment value despite both teams being more or less out of contention. Edward Cabrera emerges as the clear draw with his impressive 7.33 pNERD, fueled by electric 96.7 mph velocity and solid xFIP metrics, while being the subject of much speculation as the trade deadline nears. The right-hander has been dealing lately, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his past four starts in July and striking out six and walking none in his most recent victory over San Diego. Meanwhile, Andre Pallante's struggles create an intriguing contrast - his 4.63 pNERD reflects recent woes as he's allowed 18 runs (17 earned) on 25 hits and five walks in 15 2/3 innings over his last three starts. The Cardinals desperately need a turnaround after losing seven of their last 10 games while losing ground in the National League wild-card race, while Miami enters riding momentum with a 6-3 record since the All-Star break. This game presents a classic pitcher-versus-pitcher narrative with Cabrera's rising stock against Pallante's recent struggles, making it a compelling watch for those who appreciate pitching duels with potential trade deadline implications.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Cardinals play the Marlins in first of 3-game series - Yahoo Sports
- Cardinals play the Marlins in first of 3-game series - Yahoo Sports
- Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction - 7/28/2025
- Cards look to jumpstart playoff push against Marlins | Fieldlevel | jacksonprogress-argus.com
- Cardinals vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Cards look to jumpstart playoff push against Marlins
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Cards look to jumpstart playoff push against Marlins
- Cards look to jumpstart playoff push against Marlins - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM
- Marlins unable to complete sweep despite Eury Pérez's historic month - Marlins - Fish On First
Miami Marlins
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -13.6 | 7.9% | -2.9 | 0.3 | $67.3M | 26.8 | 6.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.25 | -0.53 | -0.57 | 0.02 | -1.42 | -1.96 | 0.32 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.25 | -0.53 | -0.57 | 0.02 | 1.42 | 1.96 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 6.36 |
St. Louis Cardinals
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 8.2 | 7.9% | -4.5 | 21.0 | $135.7M | 28.6 | -7.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.19 | -0.53 | -0.86 | 1.18 | -0.50 | -0.13 | -0.38 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.19 | -0.53 | -0.86 | 1.18 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.61 |
Visiting starter: Edward Cabrera
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 90 | 11.8% | 62.9% | 96.7 mph | 27 | 17.7s | -7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.65 | 0.67 | -0.49 | 1.36 | -0.44 | -0.66 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.31 | 0.34 | -0.24 | 1.36 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.33 |
Home starter: Andre Pallante
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 94 | 10.2% | 61.2% | 94.6 mph | 26 | 19.7s | 27 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.41 | -0.12 | -1.22 | 0.40 | -0.70 | 0.96 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.83 | -0.06 | -0.61 | 0.40 | 0.70 | -0.48 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.63 |
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Detroit Tigers, 6:40p
Summary
This game features a fascinating clash of extremes that should provide plenty of entertainment for the analytically inclined viewer. Detroit turns to rookie Troy Melton to start this game. Melton has only pitched five innings in MLB and has a 10.80 ERA. The right-hander's zero pNERD score reflects his complete lack of MLB track record, making him essentially a wild card who could either implode spectacularly or surprise everyone. His most recent appearance came on Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when the right-hander tossed five innings, surrendering six earned runs while allowing seven hits. In one appearance this season, he has a 10.80 ERA and 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings, while opponents are hitting .333 against him.
On the other side, Rodriguez is a former Tiger who is struggling this year. Despite his modest 3.48 pNERD, Rodriguez brings veteran savvy and The left-hander's last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed 6 1/3 innings without allowing a run on six hits in a matchup with the Houston Astros. The team dynamics add intrigue too: The Detroit Tigers have been slumping hard since before the All-Star break and continued their losing ways against the Toronto Blue Jays at home this weekend, dropping the series three games to one. Meanwhile, 'Zona comes in having split its last 10 games, but has just one win in its last six matchups — a 1-0 road win at the Pittsburgh Pirates, dropping them to fourth in the National League West and 10 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This matchup offers the perfect storm of rookie volatility, veteran intrigue, and two teams desperately needing to break out of their respective funks, making it a compelling watch despite the modest overall gNERD score.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Detroit Tigers welcome Arizona Diamondbacks for 3-game weekday series - Bless You Boys
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers Prediction - 7/28/2025
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, 7/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds
- Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Probable Starting Pitchers - July 28 - Bleacher Nation
- Diamondbacks vs Tigers Prediction and Picks for July 28 2025
- Eduardo Rodriguez - Arizona Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher - ESPN
- Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Series Injured List - July 28-30 | Fox Sports 1350 AM
- Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Series Injured List - July 28-30 | FOX Sports 1450
- Diamondbacks vs Tigers Prediction, Picks & Odds — Monday, July 28
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 53.3 | 9.1% | 5.5 | 9.9 | $189.5M | 29.5 | 9.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 1.11 | 0.42 | 0.96 | 0.55 | 0.22 | 0.79 | 0.48 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.11 | 0.42 | 0.96 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 4.00 | 7.52 |
Detroit Tigers
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 19.6 | 9.7% | 6.2 | 8.4 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -22.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.42 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.47 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -1.19 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.42 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.35 |
Visiting starter: Eduardo Rodriguez
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 101 | 10.2% | 62.5% | 92.0 mph | 32 | 18.4s | 31 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.01 | -0.12 | -0.68 | -0.80 | 0.86 | -0.09 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.02 | -0.06 | -0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.48 |
Home starter: Troy Melton
No detailed stats available
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago White Sox, 7:40p
Summary
This matchup presents a delicious mismatch that should have baseball purists salivating. Cristopher Sánchez has been throwing darts with a 2.40 ERA and 134 strikeouts through 124 2/3 innings, sporting an elite xFIP- of 68 that makes him one of the most effective left-handers in baseball right now. In his last start, Sanchez pitched a complete game, giving up four hits and one run in nine innings, while striking out 12 batters, and he's 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in four July starts and has pitched at least six innings in nine straight starts. His pNERD of 9.59 reflects this dominance perfectly, with exceptional swinging strike rates and velocity that make him appointment viewing.
On the other side, you have Davis Martin and the historically awful White Sox, who are 38-68 and 22 games back in the AL Central. Martin's 3.34 pNERD tells the story of a pitcher struggling with below-average metrics across the board, while the White Sox have scored just 394 runs (3.8 per game) and have a team batting average of .226, ranking 27th and 29th respectively. The Phillies' superior offensive depth, led by Kyle Schwarber's 36 home runs, creates a stark contrast against Chicago's anemic attack. This game offers the rare pleasure of watching a genuinely elite pitcher dominate one of baseball's most overmatched lineups, making it essential viewing for anyone who appreciates pitching artistry against overwhelming odds.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- White Sox vs Phillies Betting Preview for July 28, 2025 | DownBeach
- White Sox vs Phillies Betting Preview for July 28, 2025 - On Pattison | THE Philly Sports Website
- Phillies and White Sox series preview, notes, and pitching matchups ~ Philadelphia Baseball Review - Phillies News, Rumors and Analysis
- Phillies vs. White Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Phillies visit the White Sox to start 3-game series - Yahoo Sports
- Phillies visit the White Sox to start 3-game series - Yahoo Sports
- Phillies vs White Sox Prediction and Picks for July 28 2025
- Cristopher Sánchez Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com
- Cristopher Sanchez - Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher - ESPN
- Phillies go for another series win vs. White Sox - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 28.5 | 8.9% | 6.8 | -1.5 | $279.5M | 29.5 | 10.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.60 | 0.26 | 1.20 | -0.08 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 0.53 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.60 | 0.26 | 1.20 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 4.00 | 6.51 |
Chicago White Sox
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -72.7 | 7.8% | -2.4 | -25.0 | $79.0M | 27.5 | -14.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.46 | -0.61 | -0.48 | -1.40 | -1.26 | -1.25 | -0.76 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.46 | -0.61 | -0.48 | -1.40 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.56 |
Visiting starter: Cristopher Sánchez
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 68 | 13.4% | 65.7% | 95.4 mph | 28 | 19.0s | -11 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.97 | 1.47 | 0.72 | 0.76 | -0.18 | 0.39 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.95 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.76 | 0.18 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.59 |
Home starter: Davis Martin
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 106 | 9.0% | 62.7% | 93.4 mph | 28 | 17.0s | -11 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.31 | -0.71 | -0.56 | -0.16 | -0.18 | -1.22 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.62 | -0.36 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.34 |
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38p
Summary
The Angels-Rangers matchup presents a fascinating study in contrasts, anchored by Jacob deGrom's dominant 10-2 record and 2.28 ERA against Jack Kochanowicz making his first start of the season and first appearance in over a year. The 37-year-old deGrom continues his remarkable career resurgence with elite velocity and strikeout rates that earned him a stellar 10.19 pNERD, while the 24-year-old Kochanowicz represents a complete unknown quantity for the Angels. This David-versus-Goliath pitching matchup creates immediate intrigue, especially considering deGrom has allowed just 81 hits over 118.1 innings while maintaining his signature dominance. The Rangers' superior tNERD of 5.78 reflects their better baserunning and fielding despite offensive struggles, while the Angels' 2.72 tNERD is dragged down by historically poor fielding metrics. The massive gap in pitcher quality creates a compelling narrative of whether Kochanowicz can somehow neutralize the Rangers' momentum or if deGrom will simply overpower a middling Angels lineup. This game offers the rare combination of watching a future Hall of Famer potentially dominate against a complete wild card, making it essential viewing for those who appreciate elite pitching performances and unpredictable outcomes.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Rangers vs. Angels Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Pick - 7/28/2025
- Angels begin 3-game series against the Rangers - Yahoo Sports
- Angels begin 3-game series against the Rangers - Yahoo Sports
- Rangers vs. Angels: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters – July 28 - Bleacher Nation
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Angels vs. Rangers Series Injured List - July 28-30 | 1340 The Game
- Angels begin 3-game series against the Rangers - ABC7 Los Angeles
- Angels vs. Rangers Series Injured List - July 28-30 | AM 1300 THE ZONE
- How to Watch Rangers vs. Angels: TV Channel & Live Stream - July 28 | FOX Sports
Texas Rangers
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -47.9 | 8.6% | 11.1 | 13.0 | $219.7M | 30.4 | -33.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.95 | 0.03 | 1.98 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 1.71 | -1.78 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.95 | 0.03 | 1.98 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.78 |
Los Angeles Angels
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -15.3 | 10.8% | -3.3 | -37.6 | $203.8M | 29.2 | -5.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.29 | 1.76 | -0.64 | -2.11 | 0.41 | 0.49 | -0.27 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.29 | 1.76 | -0.64 | -2.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.72 |
Visiting starter: Jacob deGrom
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 77 | 14.6% | 67.1% | 97.4 mph | 37 | 18.1s | -20 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.43 | 2.06 | 1.29 | 1.68 | 2.16 | -0.33 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.87 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 1.68 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.19 |
Home starter: Jack Kochanowicz
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 117 | 9.2% | 62.1% | 95.7 mph | 24 | 18.7s | 30 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.97 | -0.61 | -0.84 | 0.90 | -1.22 | 0.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.94 | -0.31 | -0.42 | 0.90 | 1.22 | -0.08 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.24 |
Washington Nationals @ Houston Astros, 8:10p
Summary
This matchup offers solid watchability potential with a gNERD of 10.46, driven primarily by the pitching talent on display. Framber Valdez is the Astros' ace with an impressive 11-4 record with a 2.67 ERA and 129 strikeouts, and his pNERD of 7.15 reflects his excellence with a stellar xFIP- of 73 that places him well above average. The left-hander has quietly pieced together one of the most impressive runs in baseball, going 10-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 13 starts with Houston winning all 13 of those games. His opposing starter Brad Lord carries a respectable 6.63 pNERD despite his modest 2-5 record, suggesting better underlying metrics than his win-loss tally indicates.
The storylines add intrigue beyond the numbers. The Astros were embarrassed over the weekend, swept by the Athletics in a three-game series and were outscored 27-5, creating a bounce-back narrative for the home team. After being swept at home by the Oakland Athletics — their third home sweep of the season — Houston finds itself in unfamiliar territory, having lost nine of its last ten at home. Meanwhile, the Nationals took two of three against the Twins in Minneapolis outscoring Minnesota 16-6, suggesting they might not be the pushover their 43-62 record implies.
The team metrics tell a tale of contrasts: Houston's superior tNERD of 4.66 versus Washington's pedestrian 2.47 reflects the Astros' advantages in batting runs, fielding, and payroll, though both teams struggle with barrel rate. With Valdez's dominant recent form anchoring a solid pitching matchup and Houston desperately needing to end their home struggles against a surprisingly frisky Nationals squad, this game delivers enough compelling elements to justify its above-average watchability score.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Series July 28-30: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions - Bleacher Nation
- Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros Prediction - 7/28/2025
- Astros vs. Nationals: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch - Bleacher Nation
- Nationals vs. Astros (Jul 28, 2025) Pregame - ESPN
- Astros vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Astros vs. Nationals Series Injured List - July 28-30 | Ticket 760
- Astros vs. Nationals Series Injured List - July 28-30 | AM 1300 THE ZONE
- Nationals at Astros Prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends and stats for July 28 - NBC Sports
- Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Astros Aim to End Home Skid Against Nationals
Washington Nationals
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -17.5 | 7.7% | -4.4 | -30.0 | $115.9M | 27.5 | -19.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.33 | -0.68 | -0.84 | -1.68 | -0.77 | -1.25 | -1.03 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.33 | -0.68 | -0.84 | -1.68 | 0.77 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.47 |
Houston Astros
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 16.7 | 7.6% | -2.3 | 6.1 | $221.9M | 29.0 | 22.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.36 | -0.76 | -0.46 | 0.34 | 0.66 | 0.28 | 1.18 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.36 | -0.76 | -0.46 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.18 | 4.00 | 4.66 |
Visiting starter: Brad Lord
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 93 | 9.7% | 65.0% | 95.0 mph | 25 | 17.7s | -10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.47 | -0.37 | 0.40 | 0.58 | -0.96 | -0.66 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.95 | -0.18 | 0.20 | 0.58 | 0.96 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.63 |
Home starter: Framber Valdez
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 73 | 11.1% | 64.7% | 94.3 mph | 31 | 19.9s | -7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.67 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.60 | 1.12 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.35 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.00 | -0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.15 |
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics, 10:05p
Summary
This matchup presents an intriguing contrast in form and fortune between two AL West rivals. The Athletics completed a sweep of the Houston Astros Sunday with a 7-1 win, outscoring the Astros 27-5 over the three games, riding a four-game winning streak into this series opener. Meanwhile, Seattle lost Sunday, 4-1, to split their four-game series against the Angels despite Cal Raleigh smacking his 41st home run of the season.
The pitching matchup favors Seattle significantly, with Luis Castillo's solid 5.43 pNERD score anchored by his impressive velocity (95.2 mph) and veteran presence at age 32. Castillo brings a 7-6 record with a 3.30 ERA and 107 strikeouts, though he gave up three earned runs and allowed 10 hits in five innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. On the other side, JP Sears presents a stark contrast with his paltry 1.03 pNERD, hampered by poor swinging strike rates and slower velocity at 92.0 mph, despite a strong last outing against Texas with just 1 earned run allowed.
The Athletics' surprising 7.81 tNERD benefits heavily from exceptional luck metrics (z-score of 1.93), while Seattle's more modest 5.52 tNERD reflects their superior talent but recent struggles. Shea Langeliers has blasted homers in three straight games for Oakland, while Cal Raleigh has a two-game home run streak of his own for Seattle, setting up potential fireworks despite the pitching disparity.
This game offers solid watchability driven primarily by Castillo's strong pitching performance potential against an Athletics team riding momentum, though the significant talent gap suggests Seattle should control proceedings despite Oakland's recent hot streak.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Series July 28-30: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions - Bleacher Nation
- Mariners vs. Athletics: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters – July 28 - Bleacher Nation
- Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Athletics vs. Mariners Series Injured List - July 28-30 | Rip City Radio 620 Portland
- Athletics open 3-game series with the Mariners - Yahoo Sports
- How to Watch Mariners vs. Athletics: Streaming & TV on July 28 | Rip City Radio 620 Portland
- Athletics vs. Mariners Series Injured List - July 28-30 | FOX SPORTS 550 The ZONE
- Mariners at Athletics prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, THe trends, and stats for July 28 - Yahoo Sports
- Seattle Mariners Schedule | Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 2025 2nd Half MLB Schedule - ESPN
Seattle Mariners
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 54.1 | 9.2% | -3.4 | -18.7 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 15.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 1.13 | 0.50 | -0.66 | -1.05 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.80 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.13 | 0.50 | -0.66 | -1.05 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 5.52 |
Athletics
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 12.2 | 8.4% | 1.9 | -17.7 | $77.1M | 27.6 | 36.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.27 | -0.13 | 0.30 | -0.99 | -1.29 | -1.14 | 1.93 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.27 | -0.13 | 0.30 | -0.99 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 1.93 | 4.00 | 7.81 |
Visiting starter: Luis Castillo
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 98 | 11.2% | 64.9% | 95.2 mph | 32 | 17.9s | -11 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.17 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.67 | 0.86 | -0.50 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.43 |
Home starter: JP Sears
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 114 | 8.4% | 64.0% | 92.0 mph | 29 | 20.3s | 5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.79 | -1.01 | -0.04 | -0.80 | 0.08 | 1.45 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.58 | -0.50 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.72 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.03 |
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40p
Summary
The Red Sox-Twins matchup presents a fascinating study in contrasts, with Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA) facing Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA). Despite Fitts' modest 1-4 record and concerning 4.86 ERA, his pNERD score of 7.01 tells a different story, driven by an impressive 95.6 mph velocity and strong strike rate that suggests better days ahead. The 25-year-old has history with Minnesota too, having pitched five scoreless innings against the Twins last September, though he's coming off a rough outing where he gave up four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against Philadelphia. On the other side, Woods Richardson's pedestrian 1.98 pNERD reflects his struggles with command, particularly evident in his last start where he went just three innings, allowing three runs on two hits and five walks despite the Twins winning. The 24-year-old's xFIP- of 122 suggests his 4.14 ERA might actually be flattering his true performance. Boston's superior offense, ranking ninth-best in MLB with a .251 team average, should capitalize against a pitcher who's facing the Red Sox for the first time. This game's 9.64 gNERD score stems largely from the pitching mismatch favoring Boston and the Red Sox's well-rounded offensive attack, making it a compelling watch despite both starters' recent struggles.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Red Sox at Twins lineups and preview for July 28, 2025
- Twins host the Red Sox to begin 3-game series - Yahoo Sports
- Twins vs. Red Sox: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch - Bleacher Nation
- Simeon Woods Richardson Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News | Minnesota Twins
- Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Twins host the Red Sox to begin 3-game series - Yahoo Sports
- Simeon Woods Richardson News
- Simeon Woods Richardson - Minnesota Twins Starting Pitcher - ESPN
- Red Sox Look to Build Momentum Against Slumping Twins
- After beating Dodgers, Red Sox turn attention to Minnesota - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM
Boston Red Sox
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 16.1 | 10.0% | 2.7 | 15.6 | $191.8M | 28.7 | -4.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.35 | 1.13 | 0.45 | 0.87 | 0.25 | -0.02 | -0.22 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.35 | 1.13 | 0.45 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.83 |
Minnesota Twins
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -5.0 | 8.8% | -5.9 | -8.9 | $145.1M | 28.8 | 11.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.08 | 0.18 | -1.12 | -0.50 | -0.37 | 0.08 | 0.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.08 | 0.18 | -1.12 | -0.50 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 4.00 | 3.45 |
Visiting starter: Richard Fitts
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 98 | 12.0% | 67.7% | 95.6 mph | 25 | 18.9s | 17 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.17 | 0.77 | 1.54 | 0.86 | -0.96 | 0.31 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.77 | 0.86 | 0.96 | -0.16 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.01 |
Home starter: Simeon Woods Richardson
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 122 | 9.6% | 63.2% | 93.3 mph | 24 | 18.8s | -20 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | 1.27 | -0.42 | -0.37 | -0.20 | -1.22 | 0.23 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.54 | -0.21 | -0.18 | 0.00 | 1.22 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.98 |
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 6:35p
Summary
This Blue Jays-Orioles matchup presents a fascinating study in contrasts, with Toronto facing the team with the best record in the majors against Baltimore, who trail by 15 1/2 games in the American League East. The gNERD score of 9.18 reflects this disparity, driven primarily by Toronto's exceptional tNERD of 6.91 versus Baltimore's pedestrian 2.70. The Blue Jays' superior fielding runs (34.1, z-score 1.91) and batting runs (42.3, z-score 0.89) showcase a well-rounded team that's 8-2 since the All-Star break, while Baltimore's struggling defense (-18.9 fielding runs) has contributed to their 4-6 post-break record.
Chris Bassitt's solid pNERD of 4.88 reflects his excellent July form, going 4-0 across four starts this month with a 2.39 ERA. The 36-year-old veteran's age (z-score 1.90) and deliberate pace (20.4s, z-score 1.53) add character to his profile, though his below-average velocity (91.5 mph) suggests he relies on craft over power. Zach Eflin's return from nearly a month on the IL with low back discomfort, limiting Cleveland to two hits and two runs over five innings last week, provides intrigue despite his elevated 5.78 ERA and modest pNERD of 3.86.
The supporting cast adds depth to the entertainment value, with Bo Bichette coming off a five-hit game on Sunday and catcher Alejandro Kirk's concussion creating roster uncertainty for Toronto. With Toronto's offensive firepower meeting Baltimore's defensive struggles while both teams navigate trade deadline uncertainty, this game offers compelling theater between a contender and a disappointing underachiever, making it surprisingly watchable despite the talent gap.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles gametracker_new.mlb.expert-picks_description - July 28, 2025 Gametracker - CBSSports.com
- Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions, odds, line, start time: 2025 MLB picks, July 28 bets from proven model - CBSSports.com
- Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction and Picks for July 28 2025
- Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction and Picks for July 28 2025
- Orioles vs Blue Jays series preview: A tale of two seasons - Camden Chat
- Orioles-Blue Jays Opening Day starting pitchers: Eflin vs. Berríos
- Blue Jays play the Orioles after Bichette's 5-hit game - Yahoo Sports
- Blue Jays vs. Orioles: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch - Bleacher Nation
- After facing lowly Rockies, Orioles draw Jays for four | Fieldlevel | jacksonprogress-argus.com
- After facing lowly Rockies, Orioles draw Jays for four | Fieldlevel | news-daily.com
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 42.3 | 8.3% | -2.1 | 34.1 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 14.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.89 | -0.21 | -0.42 | 1.91 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.75 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.89 | -0.21 | -0.42 | 1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 4.00 | 6.91 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -9.3 | 9.2% | -3.3 | -18.9 | $167.6M | 29.2 | -6.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.17 | 0.50 | -0.64 | -1.06 | -0.07 | 0.49 | -0.33 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.17 | 0.50 | -0.64 | -1.06 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
Visiting starter: Chris Bassitt
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 87 | 9.8% | 65.4% | 91.5 mph | 36 | 20.4s | 9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.83 | -0.32 | 0.56 | -1.03 | 1.90 | 1.53 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.67 | -0.16 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.76 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.88 |
Home starter: Zach Eflin
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 102 | 9.4% | 65.4% | 91.9 mph | 31 | 18.2s | 42 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | 0.07 | -0.51 | 0.56 | -0.85 | 0.60 | -0.25 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.14 | -0.26 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.86 |
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants, 9:45p
Summary
This game presents a fascinating study in contrasts that makes it surprisingly watchable despite the modest 6.39 gNERD score. Carson Whisenhunt is making his MLB debut for the Giants, a 24-year-old left-hander who's been solid at Triple-A Sacramento with an 8-5 record and 4.42 ERA in 97 2/3 innings. His zero pNERD reflects the uncertainty inherent in any debut, creating immediate intrigue for viewers who love witnessing first-time big leaguers.
Meanwhile, Mitch Keller has been red-hot lately, going 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last seven starts after a dismal 1-9 start to the season. The 29-year-old has held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 21 starts, including eight consecutive such outings with a 2.59 ERA. His solid 4.20 pNERD reflects this consistency, though his 18.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career, explaining his underwhelming SwStr% in the data.
The Pirates arrive riding momentum from consecutive wins, including a 6-0 shutout of Arizona, while the Giants are reeling from being swept by the Mets and going 0-for-23 with runners in scoring position in that series. This could be Keller's final start as a Pirate, adding trade deadline drama to an already compelling matchup.
A rookie debut against a resurgent pitcher on the trade block, with one team surging and another struggling offensively, creates more entertainment value than the modest NERD scores suggest.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Pirates vs. Giants prediction, odds, props, best bets: Free 2025 MLB picks for Monday, July 28 - CBSSports.com
- San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Giants vs. Pirates: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters – July 28 - Bleacher Nation
- Giants vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Pick - 7/28/2025
- Fresh off recent success, Pirates ready to face struggling Giants | Fieldlevel | jacksonprogress-argus.com
- Giants vs. Pirates Series Injured List - July 28-30 | FOX Sports AM 1280
- Fresh off recent success, Pirates ready to face struggling Giants - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM
- Pirates vs. Giants (Jul 28, 2025) Pregame - ESPN
- The Opener: Giants, Pirates, Lugo, Cubs, Brewers - MLB Trade Rumors
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -101.1 | 8.2% | -6.1 | 11.6 | $88.9M | 28.4 | 4.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -2.04 | -0.29 | -1.15 | 0.65 | -1.13 | -0.33 | 0.21 | — | — |
| tNERD | -2.04 | -0.29 | -1.15 | 0.65 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 4.00 | 2.84 |
San Francisco Giants
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -19.3 | 7.5% | -7.5 | 3.2 | $195.3M | 29.3 | -9.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.37 | -0.84 | -1.41 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 0.59 | -0.49 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.37 | -0.84 | -1.41 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.56 |
Visiting starter: Mitch Keller
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 100 | 8.4% | 67.0% | 93.7 mph | 29 | 18.1s | -16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.05 | -1.01 | 1.25 | -0.02 | 0.08 | -0.33 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.10 | -0.50 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
Home starter: Carson Whisenhunt
No detailed stats available
Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians, 6:40p
Summary
This matchup pits two teams heading in opposite directions, with the Guardians sitting at .500 (52-52) while the Rockies languish at a dismal 27-77. The gNERD score of 6.25 suggests moderate watchability, driven primarily by Cleveland's solid fundamentals rather than offensive fireworks. The Guardians' pitching staff ranks 13th in strikeouts per nine innings (8.5) with a respectable 3.93 ERA ranking 16th league-wide, while Colorado's pitching is historically awful, averaging just 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings (worst in MLB) with a ghastly 5.62 ERA ranking dead last. The real intrigue comes from the pitching matchup, where Slade Cecconi's impressive 4.85 pNERD reflects his solid 3.76 ERA and reliable strike-throwing ability, contrasting sharply with Bradley Blalock's concerning 0.57 pNERD driven by an alarming 131 xFIP- that suggests he's been getting extremely lucky. Colorado's offense provides little help, ranking 28th in runs scored (3.6 per game), 24th in batting average (.234), and striking out 9.7 times per game. The Guardians are massive -240 favorites, and with key Rockies players like German Marquez and Kris Bryant on the injured list, this shapes up as a potential blowout. While Cecconi's steady presence makes this moderately watchable, Blalock's inevitable regression combined with Colorado's offensive futility suggests you might want to find a more competitive game unless you enjoy watching batting practice.
(This summary is generated by AI.)
Sources:
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies - July 28, 2025 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report
- Guardians vs. Rockies Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 28 | FOX Sports
- Colorado Rockies Schedule | Colorado Rockies
- Cleveland Guardians Schedule | Cleveland Guardians
- Colorado Rockies 2025 2nd Half MLB Schedule - ESPN
- Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians - July 28, 2025 - Picks, Odds & Stats - MLB
- Guardians vs. Rockies Series Injured List - July 28-30 | Fox Sports 1350 AM
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies, at Progressive Field, July 28, 2025 Matchups, Preview | Baseball-Reference.com
- Guardians vs. Rockies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets - Monday, July 28, 2025 - Bleacher Nation
- Buy Tickets for Guardians vs. Rockies on July 28 | Fox Sports 1350 AM
Colorado Rockies
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -111.0 | 8.3% | -3.8 | -21.7 | $125.9M | 27.9 | 18.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -2.24 | -0.21 | -0.73 | -1.22 | -0.63 | -0.84 | 0.96 | — | — |
| tNERD | -2.24 | -0.21 | -0.73 | -1.22 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.96 | 4.00 | 2.03 |
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting Runs | Barrel % | Baserunning | Fielding | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | -54.7 | 6.8% | 2.0 | 18.3 | $102.3M | 27.5 | -14.0 | — | — |
| Z-Score | -1.09 | -1.39 | 0.32 | 1.03 | -0.95 | -1.25 | -0.76 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.09 | -1.39 | 0.32 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.06 |
Visiting starter: Bradley Blalock
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 131 | 6.4% | 63.1% | 94.7 mph | 24 | 18.8s | 55 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | 1.81 | -2.00 | -0.43 | 0.44 | -1.22 | 0.23 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -3.62 | -1.00 | -0.21 | 0.44 | 1.22 | -0.12 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 0.57 |
Home starter: Slade Cecconi
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Stat | 99 | 9.9% | 64.8% | 94.1 mph | 26 | 18.7s | -5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-Score | -0.11 | -0.27 | 0.32 | 0.17 | -0.70 | 0.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.22 | -0.13 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.70 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.85 |