MLB: What to watch on July 29, 2025

• 29 July 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Detroit Tigers, 6:40p

Summary

This matchup sits right at the middle of the pack for watchability, with the game's 13.06 NERD score ranking as the highest available but still representing a fairly standard contest. The Tigers hold a commanding position atop the AL Central while the Diamondbacks continue to struggle as clear sellers at the trade deadline.

Detroit enters at 62-46 and first in their division, while Arizona sits at 51-56 and fourth in the NL West. The Tigers have struggled since the All-Star break at 3-8, though they've won two straight, while Arizona has dropped three straight and six of seven. The Diamondbacks' offense has fallen off a cliff in recent games, which explains their below-average team NERD despite decent underlying metrics.

Casey Mize's 5.80 pNERD ranks well above today's average of 3.97, driven by solid control metrics and better-than-average velocity. Mize has been very solid this season with a 3.40 ERA and 3.78 FIP, though he's allowed more than three earned runs in two of his last two outings. Brandon Pfaadt's 4.35 pNERD sits closer to the daily average, with his positive luck component suggesting potential for improvement from his current 4.67 ERA. Pfaadt has good control with a 5.2% walk rate but has been getting hit hard, allowing more than three earned runs seven times in 21 starts.

The Tigers' superior record and home field advantage make this a reasonably compelling watch, particularly with both teams featuring interesting luck-based regression candidates.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Detroit Tigers

Visiting starter: Brandon Pfaadt

Home starter: Casey Mize

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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40p

Summary

This Cubs-Brewers NL Central showdown carries extra emotional weight as Chicago tries to bounce back from the tragic loss of Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg while Colin Rea faces his former team in a pivotal division matchup. The game's 13.05 gNERD score ranks at the very top of today's slate (just 0.01 shy of the maximum), driven primarily by Chicago's potent offense and an intriguing pitching contrast.

Quinn Priester has won his last eight decisions and sports a strong 6.70 pNERD score that reflects his excellent 3.28 ERA and solid peripherals, making him one of today's most watchable starters. The 24-year-old has been particularly dominant at home and the Brewers have won each of the last 10 games he's appeared in. Meanwhile, Rea pitched the previous two seasons for Milwaukee, adding a revenge narrative to his modest 2.38 pNERD.

Chicago's 9.46 tNERD leads all teams today, fueled by their excellent offensive production and strong baserunning. Pete Crow-Armstrong is on the verge of a 30-30 season with 27 homers and 29 steals, while the Cubs rank second in runs scored and stolen bases. Milwaukee's 7.57 tNERD reflects solid fundamentals despite their unlucky -39.0 luck component suggesting they're due for positive regression. The division race context makes this matchup compelling, as Milwaukee (63-43) holds first place over Chicago (62-44) in the tight NL Central battle.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

Visiting starter: Colin Rea

Home starter: Quinn Priester

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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 7:05p

Summary

This matchup offers moderate intrigue with a Yankees team reeling from recent struggles facing an enigmatic Rays starter making just his second appearance of the season. With a gNERD score of 11.88 that sits above today's average of 9.20, this game provides solid watchability, though it doesn't reach the day's peak entertainment value.

Max Fried enters this start in the midst of his worst stretch in an otherwise solid first season with the Yankees, having allowed six runs in his last outing after recovering from a blister. Despite his recent struggles, Fried maintains an 11-4 record with a 2.62 ERA, and his pNERD score of 5.08 ranks slightly above today's pitcher average. His negative luck component suggests he's due for positive regression, making him a compelling watch despite the recent rough patch.

The Yankees' offensive firepower drives much of this game's appeal, with their tNERD of 7.71 ranking well above today's team average of 5.23. The Yankees absorbed their fourth loss in five games by managing just six hits in a 4-2 setback to Tampa Bay, and they're currently playing without Aaron Judge due to an elbow strain. Their barrel rate z-score of 2.05 and strong batting runs suggest explosive potential when they connect.

Joe Boyle makes his second start for Tampa Bay and first since allowing two unearned runs on no hits in five innings against Atlanta on April 13. His 0.00 pNERD reflects our lack of statistical data, but he's sporting a 1.42 ERA in just 19 innings this season while allowing opponents to hit just .095 against him. This inexperience creates volatility that could swing either direction, adding unpredictability to the contest.

The Rays' modest tNERD of 5.88 stems from strong baserunning but poor fielding, while their positive luck component suggests they've been underperforming their underlying metrics. This sets up a classic power-versus-finesse dynamic that should produce entertaining baseball, even if it doesn't quite reach elite watchability status.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Visiting starter: Joe Boyle

No detailed stats available

Home starter: Max Fried

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Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45p

Summary

This game offers solid watchability with a compelling narrative of redemption versus consistency, featuring two pitchers heading in opposite directions. Sandy Alcantara is coming off a dominant seven-inning, one-unearned-run performance against San Diego that looked "more like the pitcher who won the 2022 National League Cy Young Award," providing hope that the former ace is finally returning to form after Tommy John surgery struggles. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray is trying to rebound from his worst two-game sequence of the season, allowing 16 runs on 22 hits in just 8⅓ innings - though his 7.59 pNERD score ranks well above today's average of 3.97, suggesting underlying skills remain strong.

The game's 11.41 gNERD score sits comfortably above today's 9.20 average, driven primarily by Gray's strong pitcher metrics despite recent struggles. Alcantara enters at 5-9 with a 6.66 ERA while Gray stands at 10-4 with a 4.33 ERA, creating an interesting contrast between a struggling former Cy Young winner and a veteran having a solid season marred by recent rough outings. The Cardinals' superior fielding runs (18.6) should help Gray, while both teams' negative luck scores suggest potential for better offensive performance than recent results indicate. With Alcantara among the top starters potentially available before Thursday's trade deadline, this could be one of his final starts in a Marlins uniform, adding extra intrigue to his redemption story.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Miami Marlins

St. Louis Cardinals

Visiting starter: Sandy Alcantara

Home starter: Sonny Gray

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, 7:10p

Summary

This matchup sits comfortably in the middle of today's entertainment spectrum, with a gNERD score of 10.84 that falls between the day's range of 3.38 to 13.06. While it won't be the most compelling game available, the combination of Tyler Glasnow's return from injury and Nick Lodolo's recent dominance provides enough intrigue to warrant attention.

Glasnow is making just his third start since returning from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for May and June, and he's shown encouraging signs with his most recent outing being his best of the season - seven innings, one run, three hits, and 12 strikeouts against Minnesota. His pNERD score of 6.26 reflects both his talent and the anticipation around his return to form, particularly with his 96 mph velocity still intact. On the other side, Lodolo enters with momentum after throwing his first career shutout against Washington, becoming the first Reds pitcher with multiple complete games since Trevor Bauer in 2020.

The team matchup presents a clear contrast between the Dodgers' offensive firepower (tNERD 6.15, powered by their league-leading 5.2 runs per game) and the Reds' more modest offensive profile (tNERD 3.86). Cincinnati remains in the thick of the National League wild-card race despite Monday's loss snapping their four-game winning streak. Both pitchers carry negative luck components, suggesting they've been performing better than their traditional stats indicate, which could lead to stronger outings than expected. While this won't be the day's marquee attraction, it offers solid pitching performances from two hurlers at different career junctures.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Cincinnati Reds

Visiting starter: Tyler Glasnow

Home starter: Nick Lodolo

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago White Sox, 7:40p

Summary

This game features a fascinating mismatch between Jesús Luzardo's elite pNERD score of 9.07 and Jonathan Cannon's pedestrian 2.94 rating, creating compelling viewing despite Chicago's historically poor season. While the gNERD score of 10.48 sits just above today's average, Luzardo's outstanding metrics make him the clear centerpiece attraction.

Luzardo brings an 8-5 record with a 4.58 ERA but has been "hit-or-miss lately", though his underlying numbers tell a different story. His 9.07 pNERD score ranks at the very top of today's pitcher range, driven by excellent swinging strike rate and 96.4 mph velocity that places him among the hardest throwers. The positive luck component suggests his 4.58 ERA should improve as his xFIP- of 81 indicates above-average performance when defense-independent factors are considered.

The White Sox have surprisingly gone 7-3 since the All-Star break and need just two more wins to match their entire 2024 total of 41 after their historically awful 41-121 season. Colson Montgomery has four homers in his last six games, while Luis Robert Jr. is hitting .333 with 3 HR and 11 RBI over his last 13 games as the trade deadline approaches. The Phillies lost the series opener 6-2, snapping Cristopher Sánchez's seven-start unbeaten streak.

Cannon's 2.94 pNERD reflects below-average velocity and poor swinging strike numbers, making him vulnerable against Philadelphia's potent offense led by Kyle Schwarber's 36 homers. The Phillies' 6.43 tNERD significantly outclasses Chicago's 2.53, creating potential for offensive fireworks despite the White Sox's recent improved play.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago White Sox

Visiting starter: Jesús Luzardo

Home starter: Jonathan Cannon

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Seattle Mariners @ Athletics, 10:05p

Summary

This game sits squarely in the middle of the watchability pack for tonight, with a 9.70 gNERD score that's slightly above the daily average but hardly spectacular. While both starting pitchers carry underwhelming records and pedestrian skills, the Athletics' surprisingly high luck factor and the Mariners' recent acquisition of Josh Naylor add modest intrigue.

Logan Evans (4-3, 4.40 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle against Luis Severino (4-11, 4.95 ERA), two pitchers whose modest pNERD scores of 3.10 and 2.96 respectively reflect their below-average swinging strike rates and unremarkable velocity. Evans throws at 92.8 mph while Severino brings more heat at 95.9 mph, but neither generates much swing-and-miss. The Athletics' massive luck component (z-score of 1.98) suggests they've been underperforming their underlying metrics significantly, potentially setting up positive regression that could make them more competitive than their 46-62 record indicates.

The Mariners just acquired Josh Naylor from Arizona, who homered in his debut Monday night, while Cal Raleigh leads MLB with 41 home runs and has hit safely in eight straight games. Seattle holds a 5-3 season series advantage in what amounts to a workmanlike matchup between two teams with modest offensive capabilities and struggling starting pitching.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Seattle Mariners

Athletics

Visiting starter: Logan Evans

Home starter: Luis Severino

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 6:35p

Summary

This game sits comfortably in the middle of today's watchability spectrum, with a 9.46 gNERD score that's slightly above the 9.20 average, driven primarily by Toronto's strong team metrics rather than pitching intrigue. The Blue Jays bring a compelling 7.03 tNERD score that ranks well above today's 5.23 average, powered by excellent fielding runs (33.2, z-score 1.86) and solid batting production, while Baltimore's 2.85 tNERD falls well below average due to poor fielding (-18.4 runs).

Eric Lauer returns to MLB in 2025 with the Blue Jays after being selected from Triple-A Buffalo in April, and has been surprisingly effective with a 1.96 ERA since his recall, posting a 2.21 ERA across 40.2 innings with opponents hitting just .186 against him. His 91.9 mph fastball sits in the 15th percentile for velocity but ranks as the ninth most valuable four-seamer in baseball, making him an interesting study in execution over stuff. The Orioles haven't announced their starter, creating uncertainty that dampens the pitching matchup appeal.

Toronto's positive luck factor (17.0) suggests they've been underperforming their talent level and could be due for better results, while their veteran roster (29.6 years average age) and substantial payroll ($248.4M) indicate a team built to compete. Baltimore's negative fielding runs create additional offensive opportunities for the Blue Jays in what should be a reasonably entertaining contest.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

Visiting starter: Eric Lauer

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Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40p

Summary

This Red Sox-Twins matchup offers above-average entertainment value with a gNERD score of 9.35 that sits comfortably above today's 9.20 average, driven primarily by Boston's solid offensive metrics and an intriguing pitcher comeback story. Lucas Giolito makes his return after missing nearly two full seasons due to elbow surgery and hamstring issues, adding narrative weight to what would otherwise be a middling game.

Giolito hasn't pitched in the majors since October 2023, missing all of 2024 with Tommy John-related surgery and the start of 2025 with a hamstring injury. His 4.10 pNERD score reflects league-average expectations, though he's been excellent in recent outings, posting a 0.70 ERA across 38.2 innings in his last five starts before the All-Star break. The Red Sox bring solid offensive credentials with a 6.86 tNERD that ranks well above today's team average of 5.23, supported by strong barrel rate and fielding metrics.

The Twins present a more concerning picture with their 3.63 tNERD falling below today's average, hampered by poor baserunning and fielding. Their "TBD" starter situation adds uncertainty but also potential for surprise, whether positive or negative. Minnesota's positive luck component suggests they've underperformed their talent level and could be due for better results. While this game won't top today's entertainment rankings, Giolito's comeback narrative and Boston's offensive potential make it worth watching over several lower-scoring alternatives.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Boston Red Sox

Minnesota Twins

Visiting starter: Lucas Giolito

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 12:35p

Summary

This matchup sits slightly below today's average gNERD scores but offers solid watchability thanks to Toronto's strong offensive metrics and Charlie Morton's recent resurgence. With the Blue Jays riding hot bats and Morton showing signs of life after an early-season struggle, this contest presents a compelling narrative of offense versus veteran guile.

The Blue Jays (63-44) enter as division leaders, 15.5 games ahead of the struggling Orioles (48-58), making this a classic David versus Goliath scenario. Toronto's 7.03 tNERD score reflects their impressive offensive prowess, particularly their 43.9 batting runs (0.93 z-score) and strong fielding metrics. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been scorching hot, hitting .486 with a 1.396 OPS over his last nine games, including four doubles and three home runs. Bo Bichette adds to the offensive fireworks, coming off back-to-back multi-hit games including a five-hit performance.

Morton's season has been a tale of two halves - he posted a ghastly 9.38 ERA through his first nine starts before settling into a 3.53 ERA over his last 13 outings. His 3.69 pNERD reflects this improvement, though his advanced metrics still show vulnerability. Easton Lucas gets the call for Toronto after Max Scherzer's injury, having already shown promise with five scoreless innings in a recent start. The Orioles' recent offensive surge, including Adley Rutschman's return from injury, provides additional intrigue. While the gNERD of 8.86 trails today's 9.20 average, the combination of Toronto's potent lineup facing a veteran pitcher finding his groove creates enough compelling elements to warrant attention.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

Visiting starter: Easton Lucas

Home starter: Charlie Morton

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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38p

Summary

This matchup falls well below the daily average for entertainment value, with a gNERD score of 8.75 sitting considerably under today's 9.20 average. While both veteran lefties offer competent but unspectacular pitching, the game's most compelling element may be the Angels' momentum after snapping Texas's six-game winning streak Monday night.

Kikuchi brings a solid 3.23 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 122 2/3 innings, while Corbin counters with a 3.78 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings. Corbin has been particularly effective lately, going 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in four July starts while allowing just five runs in 22 1/3 innings. The Rangers' superior tNERD score of 5.68 reflects their better overall team metrics, particularly strong baserunning and fielding, while the Angels' 2.91 tNERD is dragged down by poor fielding runs despite decent power numbers. Both pitchers show slightly negative luck factors, suggesting they've pitched better than their ERAs indicate. Texas holds a 5-3 season series advantage, but the Angels' home field advantage and AL-second-best 154 home runs could provide some offensive fireworks. The game ranks in the bottom third of today's watchability options, making it more suitable for completists than casual viewers seeking peak entertainment.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels

Visiting starter: Patrick Corbin

Home starter: Yusei Kikuchi

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New York Mets @ San Diego Padres, 9:40p

Summary

This game presents a stark mismatch between the Mets' potent offense and the Padres' pitching uncertainty, creating a watchable contest despite a below-average gNERD score of 8.12. With the Mets carrying significant positive momentum from a seven-game winning streak that ended just last night and the Padres scrambling with roster moves, the competitive dynamics should produce entertaining baseball.

Sean Manaea made his season debut this month after missing the first half due to multiple injuries, but has returned in top form with a 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through three appearances. The Mets' 8.88 tNERD score ranks among today's highest team scores, driven by strong offensive metrics including a 1.50 z-score in barrel rate and solid baserunning. Meanwhile, Ryan Bergert has been called up from Triple-A for an emergency start as the Padres give Yu Darvish extra rest given his poor performance since returning from injury. Bergert's analytics are far worse than his surface-level stats indicate, which explains his modest 2.33 pNERD score.

The pitching matchup heavily favors New York, with Manaea's zero pNERD reflecting missing data rather than poor performance, while Bergert hasn't been pitching deep into games, meaning the Mets should see plenty of the Padres' bullpen, which has the best ERA in MLB at 3.03. The Mets enter looking to bounce back after their seven-game winning streak was snapped, while the Padres have won three consecutive games. Though the 8.12 gNERD sits below today's 9.20 average, the significant team disparity and Manaea's compelling return story make this a solid viewing choice.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

New York Mets

San Diego Padres

Visiting starter: Sean Manaea

No detailed stats available

Home starter: Ryan Bergert

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Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians, 6:40p

Summary

This Rockies-Guardians matchup falls well below today's watchability threshold, ranking near the bottom of the 13-game slate with a gNERD of just 7.09 compared to the daily average of 9.20. Both pitchers bring pedestrian stuff to the table, with neither Gordon nor Allen offering compelling reasons to tune in despite modest ERAs that mask deeper performance concerns.

The Rockies enter riding momentum from Monday's wild 8-6 comeback victory that was delayed 2½ hours by rain, though their 28-78 record still represents baseball's worst mark. Cleveland faces uncertainty with closer Emmanuel Clase placed on non-disciplinary paid leave through August 31 as part of MLB's sports-betting investigation, forcing them to rely on an unstable bullpen hierarchy.

Gordon's 3.74 pNERD reflects a pitcher getting by more on luck than skill, with concerning peripherals including an anemic swinging strike rate that suggests hitters are making consistent contact. His most recent outing saw six scoreless innings against St. Louis, though that performance appears more aberration than trend. Allen's 3.55 pNERD tells a similar story of mediocrity, with Cleveland losing four of his last five starts and his 4.16 ERA reflecting persistent struggles with command and effectiveness.

The team matchup offers little intrigue, with Colorado's historically poor offense (1.98 tNERD) facing Cleveland's middle-of-the-pack lineup. The Guardians' 4.90 tNERD benefits primarily from solid defense rather than compelling offensive firepower, creating a recipe for a grinding, low-energy contest that ranks among today's least compelling viewing options.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Colorado Rockies

Cleveland Guardians

Visiting starter: Tanner Gordon

Home starter: Logan Allen

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Atlanta Braves @ Kansas City Royals, 7:40p

Summary

This game falls well below today's watchability threshold, ranking near the bottom of the day's contests with a gNERD score of just 6.21 compared to an average of 9.20. The pitching matchup creates a stark imbalance that may lead to a lopsided affair rather than compelling baseball.

Erick Fedde makes his Braves debut after being acquired from St. Louis, but his -0.66 pNERD score reflects recent struggles. Fedde has been awful lately, giving up 26 runs in 17 2⁄3 innings over his last five starts, though he does have historical success against Kansas City. His poor strike rate and swinging strike percentages suggest continued difficulty, making this debut more concerning than compelling.

Seth Lugo provides the game's lone bright spot with a solid 4.14 pNERD score, ranking in the upper half of today's pitcher performances. The Royals recently signed Lugo to a two-year extension, and he comes in with an ERA under 3.00 on the season and a WHIP of just 1.09. His steady performance should provide quality innings, but the lack of offensive firepower from both teams dampens excitement.

The team matchup favors Atlanta significantly, with their 5.90 tNERD nearly doubling Kansas City's 3.05 mark. However, both teams rank poorly offensively - the Royals are the third-lowest scoring team in MLB averaging 3.5 runs per game, while the Braves have scored 427 runs (4.1 per game) this season, which ranks 24th in MLB. The Braves face the Royals with a 1-0 series lead after snapping their five-game losing streak Monday, but Salvador Perez is day-to-day with an elbow injury, further limiting Kansas City's already limited offensive potential.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Atlanta Braves

Kansas City Royals

Visiting starter: Erick Fedde

Home starter: Seth Lugo

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Washington Nationals @ Houston Astros, 8:10p

Summary

This game sits well below today's watchability threshold, with the second-lowest gNERD score on the slate and a particularly concerning pitching matchup. While Michael Soroka's solid recent form provides a modest bright spot, Jason Alexander's struggles as a spot starter make this more of a mismatch than an entertaining contest.

The game's 5.53 gNERD score ranks near the bottom of today's range (3.38-13.06), driven largely by the pitching disparity. Soroka enters with a 4.85 ERA but has been improving, while Alexander brings an 8.14 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in limited action. Alexander's last start saw him surrender five earned runs and 11 hits over six innings against Oakland, hardly inspiring confidence against a Nationals offense that has shown life recently. Soroka has allowed fewer than two runs in two of his last three starts, including a strong 5.2-inning performance allowing just one run on two hits.

The team dynamics add some intrigue but not enough to overcome the pitching concerns. Houston enters on a five-game losing streak, while Washington seeks their fourth consecutive win. The Astros' superior talent (4.44 tNERD vs 2.41) should eventually assert itself, but Alexander's role as a reliever pressed into starting duty creates uncertainty about Houston's ability to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Trade deadline implications loom large, with veterans like Soroka and MacKenzie Gore generating interest as Washington continues its rebuild. This context might provide some urgency, but with both teams' pitcher NERD scores well below today's average (2.10 vs 3.97), the on-field product is likely to disappoint compared to other options available.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Washington Nationals

Houston Astros

Visiting starter: Michael Soroka

Home starter: Jason Alexander

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants, 9:45p

Summary

This game sits dead last among today's offerings with a gNERD score of just 3.38, far below the daily average of 9.20, making it one of the least compelling matchups available. The contrast between a hot Pirates team and a struggling Giants squad provides some narrative interest, but the underlying metrics suggest viewers would be better served elsewhere.

Pittsburgh enters riding a three-game winning streak while San Francisco has dropped four straight, creating a momentum mismatch that could lead to a lopsided affair. Justin Verlander finally broke his season-long winless streak last week against Atlanta, allowing just one hit through five shutout innings for his first victory in 17 starts, though his 1.71 pNERD remains well below today's average of 3.97. The 42-year-old's age-adjusted metrics show he's still functioning above replacement level despite the poor record.

Bailey Falter presents an even less compelling viewing proposition with a meager 0.61 pNERD, hampered by poor swinging strike rates and pedestrian velocity. He's seeking to tie his career high of eight wins and comes off a strong outing against Detroit, allowing one run over seven innings. Both teams rank poorly in offensive production, with the Pirates' -100.2 batting runs reflecting their league-worst offense, while the Giants' struggles have them sitting just one game above .500. The combination of underwhelming pitching matchups and offensively challenged lineups creates a recipe for a forgettable contest that lacks the entertainment value found in today's other games.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Pittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants

Visiting starter: Bailey Falter

Home starter: Justin Verlander

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