MLB: What to watch on August 01, 2025

• 01 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

This game features one of baseball's best pitchers against a makeshift rotation spot, creating a watchability mismatch despite a respectable gNERD score of 14.89. While that score ranks at the top of today's games, the entertainment value stems more from Hunter Brown's dominance than competitive balance.

Brown enters with a 2.54 ERA and 149 strikeouts, earning him a strong 8.97 pNERD that reflects his excellent velocity (96.6 mph) and strikeout ability. His xFIP- of 70 indicates he's been genuinely dominant, not just lucky. Cooper Criswell, meanwhile, was just called up from Triple-A to fill a rotation spot, bringing a 5.06 ERA and 1.78 WHIP from his limited MLB appearances this year. His 0.00 pNERD reflects the lack of statistical data, but what we do know isn't encouraging.

The Red Sox provide the game's entertainment value with a solid 7.39 tNERD, driven by strong barrel rate (1.24 component) and well-rounded offensive metrics. Boston's recent offensive surge helps offset their pitching disadvantage. Houston deals with key injuries to Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Pena, though Jose Altuve remains productive with 18 home runs and a .284 average.

The Astros' luck component (1.02) suggests they've been underperforming their talent level and could be due for positive regression. This creates an interesting dynamic where a talented but unlucky team sends their ace against a rebuilding opponent using emergency pitching.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Houston Astros

Boston Red Sox

Visiting starter: Hunter Brown

Home starter: Cooper Criswell

No detailed stats available

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Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

This matchup between the AL Central-leading Tigers and the playoff-contending Phillies offers solid watchability despite a modest gNERD score, with two teams that have made meaningful trade deadline upgrades facing off in a series that could shape their postseason positioning.

The 13.50 gNERD score places this game in the upper tier for the day, ranking third among today's slate and well above the historical average. Detroit enters riding a four-game winning streak after losing 12 of 13 games, while both teams made significant deadline moves, with Philadelphia acquiring closer Jhoan Duran from Minnesota to bolster their struggling bullpen. The Tigers' tNERD of 8.76 reflects their young, athletic roster that excels in baserunning and barrel rate, while their luck component suggests they've been underperforming their underlying metrics and could be due for positive regression.

The pitching matchup features contrasting styles and recent form. Ranger Suárez has been excellent with an 8-4 record and 2.59 ERA, while Jack Flaherty comes off a strong outing with seven strikeouts and no earned runs despite his 6-10 record and 4.51 ERA. Both pitchers' pNERD scores hover around 6, driven primarily by their strong xFIP metrics that suggest better underlying performance than their traditional stats indicate. Flaherty's strikeout upside against Philadelphia's aggressive lineup creates interesting betting angles, while Suárez's home dominance adds another layer to the matchup dynamics.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies

Visiting starter: Jack Flaherty

Home starter: Ranger Suárez

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New York Yankees @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

This Yankees-Marlins matchup features two pitchers who've found success through different paths but arrive at nearly identical watchability ratings. The game's 12.88 gNERD score sits comfortably above today's average of 9.62, making it a solid choice among the day's options.

Carlos Rodón brings an established track record with an 11-7 record and 3.18 ERA through 22 starts, though his July was rougher with a 4.24 ERA. His strong xFIP- of 88 suggests better underlying performance than recent results indicate. On the other side, Janson Junk has been impressive with a 2.79 ERA last month and a 3.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through seven starts. The Marlins called up Junk in May, making this a test of his limited but promising major league experience against a potent Yankees lineup.

The Yankees' offensive strength shows in their strong barrel rate (2.11 z-score) and batting runs (1.70 z-score), while the Marlins counter with youth (1.96 z-score) and value (1.42 z-score from their low payroll). The Yankees enter on a three-game winning streak, setting up a compelling contrast between New York's established power and Miami's scrappy upstart energy. Both pitchers' identical 5.87 pNERD scores suggest a more even contest than the team records might indicate.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

New York Yankees

Miami Marlins

Visiting starter: Carlos Rodón

Home starter: Janson Junk

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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

This game offers solid entertainment value thanks to Logan Gilbert's dominant form and the tight playoff race, though Jack Leiter's struggles in Seattle could limit the competitive balance. With a gNERD score of 12.59, this matchup ranks well above today's average and sits comfortably in the upper tier of watchable games.

Both teams entered this series tied for second place in the AL West and the third wild card spot, making every game crucial. Leiter has won his past three starts, including an impressive 8-1 victory over Atlanta where he went six innings allowing just one run on two hits with seven strikeouts. However, he's 0-2 with a 6.98 ERA in four career appearances against Seattle, including lasting just 4⅓ innings in a 13-1 loss at T-Mobile Park in May.

Gilbert's exceptional pNERD of 11.17 reflects his outstanding underlying metrics, particularly his xFIP- of 57 that translates to elite run prevention ability. His 2.92 z-score in swinging strike rate indicates he's generating whiffs at an elite level. Meanwhile, Leiter's modest 3.10 pNERD reveals concerning control issues, with his strike rate component contributing negatively to his score.

Seattle has dominated Texas at T-Mobile Park, going 8-1 in their last nine meetings, with the Rangers scoring just six total runs in their four games there this season. The Mariners recently added Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline, bolstering their lineup for this playoff push.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Texas Rangers

Seattle Mariners

Visiting starter: Jack Leiter

Home starter: Logan Gilbert

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Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

This game features two pitchers riding hot streaks, with the Cubs' offensive firepower likely to provide more entertainment than the Orioles' depleted roster after their trade deadline fire sale. The matchup showcases a compelling contrast between Cade Horton coming off a superb July with a 1.52 ERA in four starts and entering with a shutout streak of 12 2/3 innings against Trevor Rogers who went 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA in July and most recently allowed one hit over seven shutout innings in an 18-0 win against Colorado.

The gNERD score of 12.40 ranks among the higher end of today's games and sits comfortably above the historical average, driven primarily by Chicago's exceptional team metrics. The Cubs' tNERD of 9.49 represents the highest score among all teams today, powered by elite performance across all major categories - batting runs, barrel rate, baserunning, and fielding all contributing positively. Their offensive prowess shows in being 1st in runs scored with 570, 2nd in slugging percentage at .444, 3rd in batting average at .255.

Baltimore's situation adds intrigue as they arrive with a drastically different roster after trading away Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Ryan O'Hearn and Andrew Kittredge in what was described as "a true fire sale". Despite their poor record, they come into this series having won six of their last eight, though their road struggles (23-32) work against them.

Rogers brings solid underlying metrics with his 6.40 pNERD reflecting good control and effectiveness, while Horton's 5.90 pNERD shows promise despite some contact management issues. The rookie's youth component significantly boosts his score, and Cubs manager Craig Counsell praised Horton's ability to focus on the next pitch, calling him "excellent at it". The pitching matchup should provide quality innings from both sides, setting up the Cubs' superior offense to be the deciding factor in what projects as an entertaining contest.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Baltimore Orioles

Chicago Cubs

Visiting starter: Trevor Rogers

Home starter: Cade Horton

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

This matchup offers moderate entertainment value as Shane Baz's high-octane stuff faces off against Clayton Kershaw's veteran savvy, though neither pitcher is firing on all cylinders lately. The gNERD score of 10.43 sits slightly above today's average but well within the typical range for watchable games.

Baz went 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA across five starts in July, but his pNERD of 5.96 reflects his underlying skills - particularly his velocity advantage and ability to miss bats. The 26-year-old brings 96.8 mph heat that shows up strongly in his NERD components, making him the more compelling pitcher on paper despite recent struggles. This will be his first career start against the Dodgers, adding a layer of unpredictability.

Kershaw's much lower pNERD of 2.96 tells the story of a Hall of Fame pitcher showing his age at 37. He allowed four runs over 4⅔ innings against Boston in his last outing, and finished July with an 0-2 record and 4.71 ERA. His diminished velocity and strike-throwing ability drag down his watchability score significantly.

The team dynamics add intrigue: the Dodgers arrive with the NL's second-highest slugging percentage at .442 led by Shohei Ohtani's 38 home runs, while the Rays have struggled lately, going 2-8 in their last 10 games and sitting four games out of a Wild Card spot. Tampa Bay is also monitoring injuries to three players from Thursday's game, potentially weakening their lineup further.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tampa Bay Rays

Visiting starter: Clayton Kershaw

Home starter: Shane Baz

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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

This AL Central matchup offers solid middle-tier watchability with two competent starters facing struggling offenses, though neither team has much to play for at this point in the season. The gNERD score of 10.22 sits right around today's average and comfortably in the middle of the typical range.

Joe Ryan brings the stronger pitching credentials with his 10-5 record and 2.82 ERA, backed by excellent underlying metrics that drive his 6.70 pNERD score. His standout xFIP- of 84 and strong swinging strike rate make him particularly compelling to watch. Gavin Williams counters with a 6-4 record and 3.51 ERA, though his 5.01 pNERD reflects some underlying concerns, particularly his poor strike-throwing ability that shows up in the negative component.

The pitching matchup carries the game's entertainment value since both offenses are genuinely terrible. Cleveland ranks dead last in MLB with a .228 team average, while Minnesota sits 22nd at .241. The Guardians' fielding excellence (1.07 component) should help Williams, while their young roster provides some intrigue despite the low offensive output.

Cleveland recently dealt Shane Bieber at the deadline and sits at exactly .500, while Minnesota's bullpen was "decimated" by trade deadline moves, signaling both teams are looking toward next year. The teams have split their six previous meetings this season 4-2 in Cleveland's favor, suggesting competitive balance despite the underwhelming records. This shapes up as a low-scoring affair where Ryan's superior stuff could be the difference, making it watchable primarily for pitching performance rather than offensive fireworks.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians

Visiting starter: Joe Ryan

Home starter: Gavin Williams

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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This matchup features the Mets' Peterson, who earned his first All-Star nod by replacing Ray, facing off against the veteran whose spot he inherited—and Peterson already got the better of Ray in their recent head-to-head battle. With a gNERD score of 10.13 that sits comfortably above today's average of 9.62, this game offers solid entertainment value driven primarily by the Mets' high-powered offense.

Peterson replaced Ray on the NL All-Star roster when Ray was scheduled to start before the break, making him ineligible for the showcase. The irony played out beautifully when Peterson's Mets beat Ray's Giants 2-1 in their recent Saturday matchup, with Ray carrying a shutout into the sixth before walking two batters and allowing the game-winning double.

The Mets bring considerable offensive firepower with a tNERD of 8.51, ranking among today's top team scores. Their barrel rate component of 1.47 and batting runs component of 0.74 reflect genuine offensive skill, while their baserunning (0.96) adds another dimension. The Giants counter with a disappointing 1.62 tNERD, weighed down by poor baserunning (-1.34) and below-average barrel production (-0.91).

Peterson's 5.61 pNERD benefits from excellent underlying metrics, particularly his xFIP- of 88 that translates to a strong 1.56 component. He's struck out 93 batters in 109 innings with a 3.37 FIP. Ray's 4.52 pNERD reflects solid but unspectacular performance, though he struggled coming out of the All-Star break, allowing five runs in 4⅓ innings to Toronto.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Francisco Giants

New York Mets

Visiting starter: Robbie Ray

Home starter: David Peterson

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St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

This gNERD score of 9.40 sits right at the daily average but below the historic norm, making it a decent watch elevated by Nick Pivetta's strong season and the Cardinals' trade deadline drama. The pitching matchup offers the most intrigue, with Pivetta enjoying a career year while the Cardinals continue their seller's approach after shipping out key pieces.

Pivetta is pitching at an All-Star level while Liberatore has been merely adequate, creating a significant disparity that drives much of this game's watchability. Pivetta's career year includes a 3.38 ERA in seven career starts against the Cardinals, though Liberatore recently faced San Diego, allowing two runs in 4⅓ innings. The pNERD scores reflect this gap, with Pivetta's 6.02 well above today's average of 4.70, driven primarily by his strong xFIP performance, while Liberatore's 5.20 benefits mainly from his youth factor.

St. Louis sits 5½ games behind San Diego for the NL's last wild-card spot but pivoted to a seller's role, creating an interesting dynamic against the Padres' five-game winning streak and positioning just three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Cardinals' fielding advantage (1.19 component) provides their strongest entertainment factor, while the Padres benefit from having better overall talent despite both teams showing below-average barrel rates. San Diego's bullpen advantage with Robert Suarez and Mason Miller provides elite late-game options that could make this competitive longer than expected.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

Visiting starter: Matthew Liberatore

Home starter: Nick Pivetta

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Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds, 9:40a

Summary

This matchup pairs two struggling pitchers in what could be a slugfest, especially after their wild series opener that saw both teams score eight runs in the same inning. The gNERD score of 8.59 sits below today's average but above the historical midpoint, suggesting moderate watchability driven more by offensive potential than pitching excellence.

Bryce Elder has been "one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB this season," ranking among the bottom three in ERA, FIP, and xERA among qualified starters, while posting a 10.50 ERA over his past seven starts. His recent outing was particularly brutal, allowing eight runs in just 2⅔ innings against Texas. The NERD components reflect this struggle with negative strike rate and swinging strike metrics, though his fast pace (16.0 seconds) adds some watchability points.

Brady Singer brings his own issues to the mound with an 0-3 record and 7.41 ERA in three career starts against Atlanta. His 9.1% walk rate ranks in the bottom 34% of MLB, with below-average groundball and strikeout rates, making him vulnerable to the Braves' offense despite their season-long struggles.

The teams enter this contest following a chaotic opener where both scored eight runs in the eighth inning, marking just the third time in MLB history teams achieved this feat in the same inning. While both teams rank similarly in recent offensive production, Cincinnati's pitching has been significantly better over the past month (3.64 ERA vs Atlanta's 5.61), though that advantage disappears with Singer on the mound. With Atlanta's entire opening rotation on the injured list and both starters carrying significant question marks, this game could easily turn into another high-scoring affair.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds

Visiting starter: Bryce Elder

Home starter: Brady Singer

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Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

This game sits comfortably in the middle of today's watchability spectrum with an 8.54 gNERD, but the pitching matchup between steady veterans Michael Wacha and Kevin Gausman could produce a tighter contest than the numbers suggest. The Blue Jays' strong offensive metrics (tNERD of 6.76) are buoyed by their excellent fielding and positive luck component, while the Royals' weaker 3.06 tNERD reflects poor offensive production despite some positive luck of their own.

Toronto sends Kevin Gausman (7-7, 3.82 ERA) to face Kansas City's Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.53 ERA), creating a matchup between two experienced starters with similar skill levels. Gausman dominated his last outing with 10 strikeouts and zero earned runs, while Bo Bichette has historically tormented Wacha, going 5-for-13 with a 1.053 slugging percentage against him. The offensive disparity is stark - Toronto leads MLB with a .265 batting average and averages 4.7 runs per game, while Kansas City ranks 28th in scoring at just 3.6 runs per game. This marks the first meeting between these teams this season, adding some intrigue to what should be a competent but unremarkable contest between a playoff contender and a fringe team.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Kansas City Royals

Toronto Blue Jays

Visiting starter: Michael Wacha

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

With both starting pitchers still listed as TBD, this matchup lacks the clear storylines that make for compelling viewing, despite a decent 7.56 gNERD score that sits below today's average. The game's watchability hinges entirely on team dynamics rather than pitching intrigue.

The Diamondbacks recently traded third baseman Eugenio Suárez to Seattle, creating roster uncertainty that could affect their lineup construction. Arizona's tNERD of 7.18 reflects solid fundamentals across the board, with their 1.01 batting runs component being their strongest asset. Their fielding (0.45) and baserunning (0.74) provide steady contributions, while a modest luck component (0.53) suggests they're performing roughly in line with their underlying skills.

The Athletics present a more volatile profile with their 7.94 tNERD driven largely by circumstance rather than skill. Their massive luck component of 2.00 indicates they've been significantly underperforming their talent level, while their low payroll ($77.1M) and young roster (27.6 average age) each contribute positively to their NERD score. However, their poor fielding (-0.96) and below-average barrel rate (-0.11) reveal fundamental weaknesses that could lead to messy baseball.

Without established starting pitchers to anchor the game's narrative, this becomes a battle between Arizona's steady competence and Oakland's unpredictable mix of youth and regression potential. The absence of pitcher data makes this a harder sell for viewers seeking marquee matchups.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Athletics

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

This matchup presents a clash between a playoff-bound Brewers team and a rebuilding Nationals squad, with neither starting pitcher offering much reason for optimism. The game's 5.60 gNERD score sits well below today's average of 9.62, making this one of the less compelling contests on the slate.

The Milwaukee Brewers bring the best record in the National League at 64-44, while the rebuilding Nationals, who are 20 games below .500, just completed another deadline sell-off. The Brewers' impressive 7.88 tNERD score reflects their strong baserunning (2.28 component) and fielding (1.25), though their barrel rate struggles (-1.78) suggest some offensive limitations. Washington's dismal 2.20 tNERD tells the story of a team that's poor defensively (-1.79) and struggles across most offensive categories.

The pitching matchup lacks intrigue, with both starters posting negative pNERD scores. Jose Quintana has gone 3-3 with a 4.46 ERA in seven starts since early June, and his advanced metrics suggest further regression ahead. Mitchell Parker has struggled mightily against the Brewers, posting a 9.53 ERA and 1.94 WHIP through three career meetings, with analytics ranking in the seventh percentile or lower across key metrics. There have been nine or more total runs scored in seven of the past eight meetings between these two teams, suggesting the poor pitching could at least produce offense.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Washington Nationals

Visiting starter: Jose Quintana

Home starter: Mitchell Parker

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

This matchup features two struggling starters in a game with historically low NERD scores, though the Pirates' hot streak adds some intrigue. With a gNERD of 3.89, this sits well below the day's average of 9.62 and near the bottom of historical ranges, making it one of the least watchable games available.

The Pirates enter riding a five-game winning streak and have won eight of their last ten games, though they remain 13 games out of a Wild Card spot. The Rockies are clearly the worst team in baseball with just 28 wins, sitting 12 games clear of their closest competitor for the worst record. Andrew Heaney's pNERD of 2.43 reflects some watchability despite his 4.79 ERA, particularly after throwing five scoreless innings in his last start against Arizona. However, Heaney has had success against Colorado with a 3.27 ERA in seven career appearances. Antonio Senzatela's pNERD of 0.50 tells the story of a pitcher whose 14 losses lead the majors and who gave up six earned runs in four innings against Baltimore in his last outing. Senzatela has particularly struggled against Pittsburgh, going 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA in four career games. The Pirates' recent trade deadline moves, including dealing closer David Bednar for prospects, suggest they're looking toward next season despite their current hot streak.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Colorado Rockies

Visiting starter: Andrew Heaney

Home starter: Antonio Senzatela

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Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

This matchup between two struggling teams produces a gNERD score that sits at the bottom of today's games, reflecting the limited entertainment value when neither offense nor pitching excels. The 3.68 gNERD ranks dead last among today's 15 games and falls well below the historical average, suggesting viewers might find better options elsewhere.

Tyler Anderson takes the mound for Los Angeles with a 2-6 record and 4.41 ERA in his 22nd start, though his modest 1.11 pNERD suggests he's been slightly better than his surface numbers indicate. The 35-year-old left-hander allowed two earned runs over 4⅔ innings in his last outing against Seattle, continuing a pattern of mediocrity that has defined his Angels tenure. His poor xFIP- of 126 indicates he's been lucky to maintain even his current ERA level.

The White Sox haven't named a starter, reflected in the 0.00 pNERD for their TBD pitcher. Chicago enters having won six of their last ten games with a .286 batting average and 3.94 ERA, though their season-long offensive struggles continue with just 416 runs scored and a .229 team batting average that ranks 29th in MLB. The White Sox have managed only 99 home runs this season while averaging just 3.8 runs per game.

The Angels' slightly higher team metrics are buoyed by their 155 home runs that rank fourth in MLB, though their barrel rate stands as their only above-average offensive component. Both teams feature poor fielding that drags down their watchability scores. With neither starter inspiring confidence and both offenses ranking among baseball's worst, this series opener appears destined for a forgettable slog between two clubs playing out disappointing seasons.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Chicago White Sox

Los Angeles Angels

Home starter: Tyler Anderson

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