MLB: What to watch on August 3, 2025

• 03 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I might also show 'no data' when I'm not correctly linking the schedule information with a pitcher's stats, like if the names don't match (I have an open issue to improve this).

Detail

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:05a

Summary

This game presents a compelling pitching showcase that was derailed by weather but promises to deliver when it resumes. Chase Burns, a 22-year-old who grew up in Tennessee as well and played college baseball for the Tennessee Volunteers, produced a 1-2-3 inning to start the game before rain suspended play.

The gNERD score of 14.22 ranks near the 95th percentile historically (14.76) and sits at the top of today's slate, driven entirely by Burns' exceptional pNERD of 14.22. The No. 2 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, Burns (0-3, 6.26 ERA) will get a big stage to show his electric stuff in his home state. The 22-year-old, who has a 100 mph-plus fastball and an elite slider, has already faced premiere lineups from the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Dodgers among his six big league starts. His statistical profile shows dominant stuff with a 62 xFIP- and elite swinging strike rate, though his 6.26 ERA suggests he's due for positive regression.

Left-handed reliever Austin Cox, who had previously started only three games in his brief MLB career, got the nod for the Braves instead after Spencer Strider was scratched due to rain delays. Cox's 0.00 pNERD reflects the lack of available data rather than poor performance. The Braves' slightly higher tNERD (5.44 vs 3.78) stems from strong fielding and positive luck factors, while the Reds struggle with poor barrel rates but show solid baserunning. This matchup at Bristol Motor Speedway adds novelty to what should be a pitcher-dominated affair once weather permits.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds

Austin Cox, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 4:10p

Summary

This series finale pits a struggling veteran against a breakout star, with the Tigers' Charlie Morton looking to avoid his ninth loss while facing Cristopher Sánchez, who's having a stellar season for Philadelphia. The matchup features a dramatic contrast in performance and age that should provide compelling viewing.

Morton, newly acquired by Detroit, brings a disappointing 5.42 ERA and 7-8 record from his time with Baltimore, reflected in his underwhelming pNERD score of 3.47 that ranks well below the historical mean. At 41 years old, he's struggling with command and effectiveness, making him vulnerable against a Phillies lineup that's been productive at home. Meanwhile, Sánchez has been exceptional with a 2.55 ERA leading Philadelphia's starters and a 9-3 record with 139 strikeouts. His outstanding pNERD of 9.55 places him in the 95th percentile historically, driven by excellent underlying metrics including a dominant 69 xFIP-.

The game's 14.04 gNERD score ranks above the 95th percentile of all games, making it among the most watchable contests available. Detroit just defeated Philadelphia 7-5 behind Tarik Skubal's dominant performance, giving them momentum to take the series. The Tigers' strong tNERD of 8.81 reflects their AL Central-leading position and balanced offensive attack, while Philadelphia's lower 6.26 tNERD suggests some underlying concerns despite their solid record. This rubber match features two teams heading in opposite directions, with Morton's struggles creating an opportunity for the Phillies to salvage the series behind their ace lefty.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Yankees @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

This Yankees-Marlins matchup offers a compelling storyline with Luis Gil making his season debut after winning AL Rookie of the Year, but the gNERD score of 13.27 sits comfortably above average without reaching must-watch territory.

With a gNERD of 13.27, this game ranks at the 77th percentile historically and above today's average of 10.85, making it a solid viewing choice. Luis Gil will make his long-awaited season debut against the Miami Marlins after suffering a high-grade lat strain in spring training. Gil went 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA in 151 2/3 innings last season, becoming the first Yankee since Aaron Judge (2017) to win AL Rookie of the Year, though his pNERD of 0.00 indicates we lack current statistical data for evaluation.

The real intrigue comes from Edward Cabrera, whose pNERD of 7.19 ranks in the 84th percentile historically. The 27-year-old pitcher has looked great in 18 outings this season, coming into this game at 4-5, owning a 3.35 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Over the past two months, Cabrera has blossomed into one of the National League's more reliable pitchers, addressing his previous control issues with only 19 walks in his past 13 starts, his fewest free passes in any 13-game span in his career.

The Yankees enter having dropped the opening two games to the Marlins this series and are missing Aaron Judge (elbow), who is still on the 10-day IL. The team dynamics favor Miami slightly with their 1.96 age bonus reflecting a younger roster, while the Yankees' superior barrel rate (2.14 component) suggests offensive upside when healthy.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

New York Yankees

Miami Marlins

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Tampa Bay Rays, 9:10a

Summary

This series decider features a compelling pitching matchup between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Joe Boyle, with the game's gNERD score of 13.16 ranking well above average but not quite reaching the upper echelon of today's slate.

The Dodgers and Rays split the first two games of their series, setting up a rubber match between teams heading in different directions. Los Angeles enters at 64-46 while Tampa Bay sits at 54-57, though the Rays are playing their final home game before embarking on a lengthy road trip. The gNERD score of 13.16 places this game at the 79th percentile historically and slightly above today's average of 10.85, driven primarily by strong pitcher metrics.

Yamamoto anchors the watchability with a pNERD of 8.38, well above the 95th percentile threshold of 10.23 but still compelling. The 26-year-old right-hander brings a 2.48 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 116⅓ innings, with his excellent xFIP- of 76 suggesting continued effectiveness. He's struck out at least seven in three straight outings, including nine against Minnesota. His age component adds value, as younger pitchers tend to generate more excitement.

Joe Boyle presents an intriguing contrast with his 6.31 pNERD. Making just his third start of the season, the right-hander struggled in his last outing against the Yankees, allowing four earned runs in 3⅓ innings. However, his 98.5 mph average velocity (contributing 2.00 to his pNERD) and strong swinging strike rate make him dangerous when locating strikes, though his poor strike rate hurts his overall profile.

The team components provide modest entertainment value, with the Dodgers' 6.06 tNERD boosted by their excellent batting runs and barrel rate, while Tampa Bay's 5.58 tNERD benefits from strong baserunning and their young roster. Shohei Ohtani's 38 home runs and Junior Caminero's 27 dingers add power potential to both lineups, though neither team's offensive metrics reach elite territory in the NERD framework.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Tampa Bay Rays

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals, 10:35a

Summary

This game presents a solid matchup between an ascendant Brewers team looking to complete a season sweep and a struggling Nationals squad trying to avoid their worst stretch of the year. The gNERD score of 13.01 sits comfortably above the historical average and ranks in the 75th percentile, making it a worthwhile watch among today's slate.

Milwaukee enters with the majors' best record at 66-44 and sits 22 games over .500 for the first time this season, while Washington has fallen to a season-high 22 games below .500. The Brewers' strong tNERD of 8.12 reflects their excellent baserunning (2.28 component) and solid fielding (1.23), while the Nationals' poor 2.14 tNERD stems from below-average performance across most categories, particularly their fielding (-1.78).

The pitching matchup features two young arms with contrasting trajectories. Jacob Misiorowski is a rookie who has looked impressive enough to be named an All-Star after just five starts, sporting a 4-1 record with a 2.70 ERA. His pNERD of 8.85 ranks in the 95th percentile historically, driven by excellent xFIP performance. Brad Lord was pulled from the bullpen as an emergency replacement and typically works as a reliever, unlikely to go more than five innings. His 6.91 pNERD still rates above average, though he's struggled with a 2-5 record and 3.27 ERA.

The Brewers are looking to sweep the season series, which would mark just their sixth season sweep in franchise history but their second this season. The combination of Milwaukee's offensive firepower against Washington's shaky pitching staff should provide plenty of action.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Washington Nationals

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

This matchup offers a compelling contrast between Jacob deGrom's elite stuff and Logan Evans' inconsistent rookie season, with the veteran ace's 10.09 pNERD score driving a solid 12.17 gNERD rating that sits comfortably above the historical median. The game features the series finale between two AL West teams separated by just one game in the standings, with Seattle holding a 2-1 series advantage and a dominant 9-3 season record against Texas.

deGrom brings a 10-3 record and 2.55 ERA to the mound, showcasing his return to form after missing most of two seasons following Tommy John surgery. His elite pNERD score of 10.09 ranks in the 95th percentile historically, driven by outstanding velocity (97.4 mph) and a stellar 77 xFIP-. He earned his first victory since April 2023 in his most recent outing, hurling six shutout innings, demonstrating his continued dominance when healthy.

On the other side, Evans holds a 4-4 record with a 4.22 ERA and has struggled with his consistency this year. His 3.44 pNERD reflects below-average strikeout rates and command issues, though his youth (24) provides some upside component. The 23-year-old Evans was recently named Seattle's minor league pitcher of the month before his call-up.

The teams' offensive profiles create additional intrigue, with Cal Raleigh leading the league with 42 home runs facing deGrom's elite stuff. Seattle's superior team metrics (5.68 vs 5.13 tNERD) reflect better overall batting performance, while both teams show relatively balanced underlying statistics that suggest competitive play.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Texas Rangers

Seattle Mariners

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Logan Evans, Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, 8:35a

Summary

This Sunday's Astros-Red Sox finale offers solid entertainment value with quality pitching from Framber Valdez facing a Red Sox team riding momentum. The matchup features contrasting styles and enough statistical intrigue to justify tuning in.

With a gNERD score of 11.91, this game sits comfortably above the historical average of 10.11 and ranks in the 68th percentile of recent contests. Boston has won four straight games while Houston's been beaten in seven of their last nine outings, setting up a compelling series finale where the Red Sox attempt a sweep. The game will be streaming exclusively on Roku, adding accessibility for cord-cutters.

Valdez brings legitimate ace credentials with his 7.72 pNERD score ranking well above the historical 75th percentile. His excellent 3.76 xFIP component reflects genuine skill, making him the clear pitching draw here. Giolito is 2-6 with a 5.94 ERA in 53 innings over nine career appearances against Houston, though his current 3.80 ERA suggests better recent form than his modest 3.81 pNERD indicates.

The Red Sox's 7.49 tNERD benefits from strong barrel rate (1.25 component) and solid all-around play, while Houston's 4.81 tNERD reflects their recent struggles despite underlying talent. The statistical contrast between these teams, combined with Valdez's quality and Boston's current hot streak, creates enough narrative tension to make this worth watching.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Houston Astros

Boston Red Sox

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

This matchup features rookie Jack Perkins making his first MLB start against struggling veteran Eduardo Rodriguez, but the Athletics' lack of offensive depth limits the entertainment value despite the intriguing pitching storyline.

Jack Perkins is making his MLB debut as a starter, giving this series finale a compelling narrative hook that elevates what would otherwise be a middling gNERD score of 11.81. The 25-year-old right-hander has been impressive in limited relief work, posting a 2.75 ERA and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings, while opponents are hitting .159 against him. His zero pNERD score simply reflects missing statistical data rather than poor performance. On the other side, Rodriguez brings veteran experience but concerning recent form, having given up five earned runs and allowed eight hits in six innings against the Detroit Tigers in his last outing, contributing to his 5.63 ERA. His modest 3.38 pNERD score reflects below-average peripherals, particularly in strike rate and velocity.

The Diamondbacks enter with renewed energy after scoring seven runs in Saturday's victory, with Ketel Marte, Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll each hitting solo homers as the Diamondbacks snapped a season-worst six-game skid. Both teams rank sixth in MLB with 152 home runs, suggesting offensive potential despite their sub-.500 records. The gNERD score sits comfortably above the historical median of 10.10, making it a reasonable watch for fans seeking moderately entertaining baseball with the added intrigue of a debut starter.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Athletics

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Jack Perkins, Athletics

No detailed stats available

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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

This series finale features two teams heading in opposite directions, with the Guardians riding a four-game winning streak against a rebuilding Twins squad that just traded away their best players. Cleveland's Joey Cantillo brings solid pNERD numbers while José Ureña's lack of statistical data reflects his minimal impact this season.

The gNERD score of 10.29 sits right at the historical median, making this a perfectly average game for entertainment value. While that might sound uninspiring, the Guardians are extending their winning streak to four with a 5-4 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Saturday, setting up a potential sweep scenario that adds drama to the finale.

Cantillo's 6.96 pNERD score stands out as the main attraction, driven by his strong xFIP- of 83 and decent swinging strike rate. Cantillo (2-1) takes the mound for the Guardians in his sixth start of the season. He's put together a 4.14 ERA in 50 2/3 innings pitched, with 63 strikeouts. His matchup history against Minnesota is encouraging, with a 0-1 record and 2.77 ERA in 13 innings with two starts and two relief appearances against the Twins.

The contrast couldn't be sharper with Ureña, whose 0.00 pNERD reflects his minimal sample size this season. The Twins will send Urena to the mound for his third start of the season, carrying a 5.40 ERA that suggests vulnerability.

Minnesota's recent fire sale adds a subplot worth watching. The team dealt away stars like Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, and outfielder Harrison Bader, forcing manager Rocco Baldelli to rely on untested arms, creating uncertainty that could benefit Cleveland's sweep chances.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians

José Ureña, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

This rubber match between the Cardinals and Padres offers solid watchability despite both teams treading water at mediocre levels. The Cardinals snapped a three-game losing streak Saturday while the Padres had their six-game winning streak snapped, setting up a decisive game in their seventh meeting of the season with the series tied 3-3.

The game's 10.01 gNERD score sits right at the historical median, making it perfectly average for entertainment value. Dylan Cease carries most of the watchability burden with his impressive 8.07 pNERD, driven by excellent strikeout ability and velocity. He's 3-10 with a 4.79 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 118⅓ innings this season, though he struggled in his most recent start, giving up five earned runs in 4⅔ innings against the Mets. His xFIP- of 84 suggests he's been better than his record indicates.

Andre Pallante presents a more modest 4.72 pNERD but brings intriguing recent form. He's coming off seven shutout innings against the Marlins after posting a 9.77 ERA over his previous three starts, and has a 2.70 ERA in 13⅓ career innings against the Padres. The Cardinals' superior fielding (1.20 component) could help him navigate the Padres' lineup.

The Cardinals sold at the trade deadline, moving closer Ryan Helsley and setup man Phil Maton, while the Padres made aggressive additions to their roster, creating an interesting dynamic between buyer and seller.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

St. Louis Cardinals

San Diego Padres

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

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San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

This matchup between a rookie making just his second MLB start against a veteran who has struggled to find his form makes for a below-average viewing experience despite the Mets' recent offensive explosion. The game's 9.51 gNERD score sits below both the historical median (10.10) and today's average (10.85), suggesting limited entertainment value.

Carson Whisenhunt made his major league debut last Monday, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh, and his 0.00 pNERD reflects the lack of statistical data available for evaluation. The 24-year-old left-hander posted a 4.42 ERA with 86 strikeouts in 96 innings at Triple-A Sacramento and is known for his elite changeup, but rookie debuts can be unpredictable affairs. Opposing him is Frankie Montas, whose 4.05 pNERD is dragged down by his slow pace between pitches, though he brings decent velocity at 95.5 mph. Montas has struggled recently and carries a 5.46 ERA despite a better 4.88 FIP.

The Mets' powerful lineup provides the main attraction here, with their 8.38 tNERD driven by strong barrel rates and baserunning. They just exploded for 12 runs and 13 hits in Saturday's victory, with Pete Alonso hitting his 250th career homer. The Giants counter with a dismal 1.59 tNERD, weighed down by poor batting and baserunning metrics. This disparity suggests the game could turn into a one-sided affair rather than a competitive thriller.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Francisco Giants

New York Mets

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Frankie Montas, New York Mets

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Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

This game offers a stark pitching mismatch that could produce offensive fireworks, though the Cubs' dominance suggests the entertainment may be one-sided. With Brandon Young's winless 6.63 ERA facing Chicago's solid Colin Rea at pitcher-friendly Wrigley, the watchability hinges more on whether the Cubs can capitalize than on competitive balance.

Young enters still seeking his first MLB victory after eight starts, posting a troublesome 6.63 ERA, though he delivered his first quality start last Tuesday against Toronto, holding the league's best hitting team to two runs over six innings. The 26-year-old rookie's pNERD of 4.08 sits near the historical median, but his underlying numbers suggest continued struggles. Rea counters with an 8-5 record and 4.25 ERA, plus career success against Baltimore with a 2.53 ERA in previous matchups.

The Cubs' exceptional tNERD of 9.48 ranks at the 95th percentile historically, driven by elite performance across batting (1.58), barrel rate (1.25), baserunning (1.39), and fielding (1.27). Baltimore's anemic 2.88 tNERD reflects significant weaknesses in fielding (-1.07) and baserunning (-0.70). The Orioles' bullpen was gutted at the trade deadline, losing key relievers and thrusting unknowns into high-leverage roles, while Chicago boasts one of baseball's deepest relief corps, ranking 5th with a 3.42 ERA.

The game's 9.38 gNERD sits below both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate average (10.85), suggesting moderate entertainment value. The pitching disparity and Chicago's home-field advantage point toward a Cubs victory, but Young's recent improvement and Baltimore's recent resilience could provide enough resistance to keep things interesting through the middle innings.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Baltimore Orioles

Chicago Cubs

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

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Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:37a

Summary

This game falls well below the entertainment threshold, offering a middling matchup between two pitchers who've been steady but unspectacular this season. With a gNERD score of 9.34 that sits near the 25th percentile historically and below today's average, this series finale lacks the compelling elements that make for must-watch baseball.

Seth Lugo brings an 8-5 record and 3.03 ERA to the mound after allowing three earned runs over 5⅔ innings against Atlanta in his last start, while his pedestrian pNERD of 4.00 reflects below-average swinging strike rates and velocity that barely registers. Chris Bassitt counters with an 11-5 record but struggled mightily in his last outing, surrendering six runs in just 2⅓ innings against Baltimore, though he's been exceptional at home with an 8-0 record and 2.65 ERA at Rogers Centre. His superior pNERD of 4.89 stems from strong expected fielding independent pitching metrics, giving him a slight edge.

The team dynamics favor Toronto significantly, with their 6.61 tNERD driven by strong batting runs and exceptional fielding, while Kansas City's anemic 3.18 tNERD reflects poor offensive production. The Blue Jays enter 65-47 and leading the AL East, while the Royals sit at 55-56, with Kansas City potentially missing Jonathan India after he was hit on the wrist, though X-rays were negative. This rubber match determines the series winner, but neither pitcher nor team matchup suggests the fireworks needed to elevate this game above routine Sunday baseball.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Kansas City Royals

Toronto Blue Jays

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

This game sits well below average for entertainment value, with both teams struggling significantly and a rookie pitcher trying to rebuild his confidence after a disastrous early-season outing. The gNERD score of 5.76 ranks in just the 10th percentile historically, making it one of the least compelling matchups available.

Mitch Keller has pitched better than his 4-10 record suggests, posting a 3.02 ERA over his past nine starts, though his moderate pNERD of 4.00 reflects solid but unspectacular skills. His strike-throwing ability provides the game's main bright spot, but poor swinging-strike rates limit his upside. Bradley Blalock is coming off his first quality start of the season, throwing six shutout innings at Cleveland, but his 7.09 ERA and terrible underlying metrics (117 xFIP-) suggest this recent success is more luck than skill. After giving up 12 runs in a 21-0 loss to San Diego in May, he was demoted but has posted a 1.59 ERA in three starts since his July recall.

The team context makes this even less appealing. Pittsburgh's offense has been woeful, scoring more than two runs just once during Keller's 10-game losing streak earlier this season. Colorado's pitching staff owns the worst ERA in baseball at 5.75, while both teams rank poorly in most offensive categories. The Rockies are seeking their first home sweep of the year, but with both clubs well out of contention, the stakes feel minimal. This matchup represents two struggling organizations going through the motions rather than providing genuine entertainment value.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Colorado Rockies

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Bradley Blalock, Colorado Rockies

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Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

This game sits at the bottom of watchability with a gNERD of 4.86, ranking in the 5th percentile historically and lowest among today's slate. The pitching matchup between two struggling right-handers offers little intrigue, with both Burke and Kochanowicz sporting poor peripherals despite their modest pNERD scores.

The White Sox enter riding a three-game winning streak, having improved to 42-69 with 10 wins in 14 games since the All-Star break after finishing 41-121 last season. However, their underlying metrics remain dismal with negative contributions across batting, baserunning, and fielding components. The Angels fare slightly better but still struggle with poor fielding that drags down their tNERD despite solid barrel rate production.

Kochanowicz comes off a strong outing against Texas, allowing no earned runs over 4.2 innings, but his 5.75 ERA and poor strike-throwing ability (reflected in his negative Strike% component) suggest regression. Burke owns a more respectable 3.77 ERA and 3.71 FIP but similarly lacks swing-and-miss stuff. Both pitchers benefit from their youth in the NERD calculation, though their actual performance metrics paint a concerning picture.

The Angels' barrel rate excellence (1.74 z-score component) provides the game's lone bright spot, suggesting potential for offensive fireworks despite both teams' overall struggles. With both clubs far from playoff contention and featuring two pitchers with significant command issues, this matchup represents a clear pass for entertainment-seeking viewers.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Chicago White Sox

Los Angeles Angels

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

Jack Kochanowicz, Los Angeles Angels

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