MLB: What to watch on August 4, 2025

• 04 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.

Detail

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

This Cubs-Reds matchup presents a compelling viewing opportunity with the highest gNERD score among games today, driven primarily by Chicago's impressive team metrics and the debut of newly acquired pitcher Michael Soroka. The game's 11.88 gNERD score sits above the historical median and represents solid watchability.

The Cubs enter with a 9.47 tNERD score that ranks near the 95th percentile historically, showcasing excellence across multiple areas. Soroka (3-8, 4.87 ERA) was acquired from the Washington Nationals on Wednesday for the No. 13 and 14 prospects in the Chicago farm system in shortstop Ronny Cruz and outfielder Christian Franklin. Soroka described the trade as "new life" and "kind of like a new start to the season for me," adding that "joining a team like this, it's a new breath of adrenaline and life." His 4.51 pNERD score reflects moderate potential despite his underwhelming ERA.

Cincinnati counters with Nick Lodolo, whose 6.01 pNERD score makes him the more intriguing pitcher statistically. He is coming off a solid July in which he went 3-1 in five starts with a 1.89 ERA, most recently holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to two runs and six hits over 5 1/3 innings while striking out a season-high 11 batters. The Reds' 3.78 tNERD score reflects their struggles, particularly with a poor barrel rate and negative batting runs.

The teams meet for the seventh time this season with the Cubs leading the season series 4-2. Chicago's home field advantage at Wrigley Field, combined with Soroka's debut storyline and Lodolo's recent strong form, creates an engaging dynamic for this NL Central clash.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Michael Soroka, Chicago Cubs

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Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This game offers a solid but unspectacular viewing experience, highlighted by Sean Manaea's return from injury against a Cleveland team that's struggled offensively on the road. The gNERD score of 11.70 sits comfortably in the 62nd percentile historically and ranks as the fourth-highest among today's games.

Manaea has been dominant in his limited action this season, posting a 2.08 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings, and hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any of his four starts. However, his pNERD score of 0.00 reflects missing statistical data rather than poor performance. The Mets desperately need length from their starters after injuries decimated their rotation, with Manaea working back from his own long-term injury on strict pitch counts.

Cecconi brings a more predictable 5-4 record and 3.77 ERA to the mound, coming off seven innings against Colorado where he allowed three earned runs. His pNERD of 4.94 sits right at the historical median, suggesting average entertainment value from the Cleveland starter.

The Mets' superior tNERD score of 8.38 (81st percentile) reflects their offensive firepower, particularly their barrel rate component that ranks in the 92nd percentile. New York ranks fifth in the NL with a .408 slugging percentage and features Juan Soto's 25 home runs. Cleveland's offensive struggles become more pronounced on the road, where they're just 27-28 this season and average only 3.93 runs per game, ranking in the bottom third of MLB.

The teams meet for the first time this season, adding mild intrigue to what should be a pitcher-friendly affair at Citi Field. While not a must-watch game, the combination of Manaea's effectiveness and the Mets' playoff positioning makes this a respectable option for baseball viewing.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Cleveland Guardians

New York Mets

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

This matchup pits two pitchers coming off rough outings, with Sonny Gray's recent struggles potentially outweighing Tyler Glasnow's control issues against a potent Dodgers offense that ranks second in OPS.

With a gNERD score of 11.55, this game sits comfortably above both the historical median (10.10) and today's average (9.55), ranking in the 70th percentile of all games. The entertainment value stems primarily from strong individual performances rather than team dynamics. Gray has given up a combined 17 earned runs over his last three starts, with 30 hits allowed over his last 13 1/3 innings, contributing to his solid 7.51 pNERD score that reflects his underlying skills despite recent results. His xFIP- of 73 indicates elite performance when his peripherals align properly.

Glasnow struggled with control in his last outing, allowing four runs and five walks in four innings against Cincinnati, yet his 4.99 pNERD score remains respectable thanks to his 96 mph velocity and strikeout ability. The Dodgers' offensive firepower creates an intriguing contrast - they're 47-9 when they out-hit opponents and rank second in OPS and third in runs scored.

The Cardinals sit at 56-57 while the Dodgers lead the NL West at 65-47, adding playoff implications for Los Angeles. The pitching matchup between two proven starters experiencing recent volatility, combined with the Dodgers' explosive offense facing a struggling Gray, creates the type of uncertainty that makes games compelling to watch.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

St. Louis Cardinals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

This matchup offers solid mid-tier entertainment with contrasting pitching styles and a clear talent gap between teams. With a gNERD of 11.41, this game sits comfortably above the historical median (10.10) and ranks among the better options available today.

Cade Povich returns from the IL after missing time since mid-June with hip inflammation, adding uncertainty to his performance against a Phillies lineup that features Kyle Schwarber's team-leading 38 home runs and 88 RBIs. The young lefty's 4.92 pNERD reflects decent underlying metrics despite his 5.15 ERA, with his age component providing the biggest boost to his watchability score. His velocity sits below average, but his lone win this season came against Washington in April, suggesting flashes of competence.

Jesús Luzardo anchors the entertainment value with his impressive 8.80 pNERD, ranking among today's highest pitcher scores. His excellent xFIP and above-average velocity create strikeout potential against Baltimore's lineup that strikes out at a 24.7% clip against lefties. Luzardo blanked Chicago over seven innings in his last start and hasn't allowed an earned run in five of his victories, though he's struggled historically against Baltimore with a 5.59 ERA in limited exposure.

The team dynamics favor Philadelphia significantly, with their 6.32 tNERD driven by strong baserunning and solid batting metrics. The Phillies (63-48) lead the NL East while Baltimore (51-61) sits fifth in the AL East, creating a David-versus-Goliath storyline. Baltimore recently traded away Cedric Mullins and other key pieces at the deadline, potentially affecting their offensive cohesion. The Phillies' home advantage at Citizens Bank Park, where they've posted a strong 35-20 record, should amplify the entertainment factor in what projects as a competitive but likely lopsided affair.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Baltimore Orioles

Philadelphia Phillies

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

This matchup offers solid entertainment value with two teams fighting for playoff positioning, though it won't rank among the season's most compelling games. The Yankees arrive desperate to rebound from an embarrassing sweep by Miami, while the Rangers sit just two games out of a wild card spot.

The Yankees enter on a three-game losing streak, with oddsmakers installing them as -159 favorites against Texas, who remains very much in the playoff picture as the first team out of the AL, two games back of the Mariners for the third AL Wild Card. The gNERD score of 11.27 ranks in the 64th percentile historically and sits above today's average of 9.55, making this a moderately watchable contest.

Max Fried brings a strong 12-4 record with a 2.62 ERA and 125 strikeouts to the mound, though his July struggles with an ERA over five and blister issues knocked him from Cy Young contention to merely "very good" level. His pNERD of 5.29 sits at the 58th percentile, driven primarily by excellent run prevention metrics. Patrick Corbin has transformed from "the worst regular starter in baseball" during his Nationals years to merely below average this season, posting a solid 2.30 ERA and 2.99 FIP in July. His 4.20 pNERD reflects this modest improvement.

The Yankees' superior offensive firepower shows in their 8.00 tNERD, buoyed by exceptional barrel rate and batting runs components that rank in the 95th and 93rd percentiles respectively. Aaron Judge's potential return from a right elbow flexor strain would significantly boost a lineup that just endured an embarrassing sweep, though he took live at-bats Sunday and may be limited to DH duties. Texas counters with solid baserunning and fielding but struggles offensively with a -54.1 batting runs component.

Globe Life Field's hitter-friendly environment, ranking 8th in runs factor and 3rd in home run factor, should benefit both offenses and add to the entertainment value. The combination of playoff implications, contrasting team strengths, and a pitcher-friendly venue creates a respectable viewing option without reaching must-watch territory.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

New York Yankees

Texas Rangers

Max Fried, New York Yankees

Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers

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Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

This matchup features a Tigers team with playoff aspirations facing a Twins squad that has already waved the white flag on 2025, creating a stark contrast that makes for compelling viewing despite the modest gNERD score.

With a gNERD of 11.21, this game sits above the historical median of 10.10 and ranks well above today's average of 9.55, making it one of the more watchable contests on the slate. The Twins have essentially waved the white flag on 2025 after trading away Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, and eight other key players, while Detroit has been one of baseball's biggest surprises this season, building an 8-game lead in the AL Central. This disparity creates natural drama as Detroit looks to continue their push toward October baseball against a depleted Minnesota roster.

Casey Mize brings solid production to the mound with his 5.43 pNERD ranking in the 75th percentile historically. The 28-year-old has pitched in 18 games this season with an ERA of 3.43, a 3.23 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.325. His strong velocity component (94.7 mph) and improved strike rate suggest he's found his form after Tommy John surgery recovery struggles. The Tigers' 8.66 tNERD reflects their balanced attack and strong baserunning, ranking in the 95th percentile of team scores. Minnesota's 3.32 tNERD tells the story of a franchise in transition, with negative baserunning and fielding components dragging down their watchability despite decent barrel rates.

Casey Mize gives the Tigers a substantial pitching advantage over Twins rookie Travis Adams, who has struggled mightily in his limited big league exposure, setting up a potential mismatch that could lead to offensive fireworks from Detroit's potent lineup.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

This game offers solid entertainment value with a promising young pitcher facing a struggling veteran in a matchup between baseball's hottest offense and an injury-ravaged squad looking to salvage their season. The 10.09 gNERD score sits right at the historical median, making it a respectable watch among today's slate.

Quinn Priester continues to impress in his time with the Brewers, having pitched more innings with Milwaukee (107⅓) than the rest of his MLB career combined, and his 6.77 pNERD score reflects his breakout campaign with a 3.93 FIP. The 24-year-old's youth component boosts his watchability factor significantly. He's 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA in July and hasn't suffered a loss since May 13, though his modest strikeout rate keeps expectations measured.

On the other side, Erick Fedde's -0.42 pNERD tells the story of a pitcher struggling to find his form. After being designated for assignment by St. Louis, he allowed four runs in 4⅔ innings in his Braves debut, and his xFIP- of 128 suggests continued struggles ahead. In eight career appearances against Milwaukee, Fedde is 2-4 with a 5.77 ERA, adding historical context to this unfavorable matchup.

Milwaukee's offense provides the game's main entertainment draw. The Brewers set a franchise record with 56 hits over three games against Washington, and their superior baserunning (2.34 component) adds dynamic elements beyond simple hitting. Atlanta's injury-riddled season has left them 20 games under .500, though their decent barrel rate (0.53 component) suggests they can still generate offense when healthy.

The 8.18 Milwaukee tNERD versus 5.67 Atlanta tNERD differential, combined with the stark pitching contrast, points toward a game where the visiting team should control proceedings while still providing enough offensive fireworks to keep viewers engaged.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Atlanta Braves

Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers

Erick Fedde, Atlanta Braves

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Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

This matchup features two pitchers on comeback journeys, with Sandy Alcantara's recent dominance making this a more compelling watch than the modest gNERD score suggests. The game sits at 8.38 gNERD, below both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate average (9.55), but don't let that fool you.

Alcantara has been dominant over his last two starts, tossing 12 scoreless innings with only a single unearned run allowed, a stark turnaround for the former Cy Young winner who has struggled with a 6.36 ERA this season after missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery. His pNERD of 4.26 ranks in the 60th percentile historically and benefits from his fastball still averaging 97.5mph, reflected in his strong velocity component (1.63). The Marlins' higher tNERD (6.56) is boosted by their young roster and low payroll creating positive age and payroll components.

Jason Alexander is a 32-year-old journeyman who battled his way back to the majors after eight years in the minor leagues, and his struggles show in his poor pNERD (1.46). His xFIP- of 120 indicates below-average effectiveness, dragging down his score despite decent pace. The Astros' luck component (1.31) suggests they've been underperforming their talent level and could bounce back.

The Marlins are on a five-game winning streak with an 8-2 record over their last ten games, while the Astros are arriving in South Florida licking their wounds after being swept over the weekend. Recent trade deadline discussions between these teams about Alcantara ultimately fell through when the Marlins kept their pitching staff intact, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this interleague series opener.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Houston Astros

Miami Marlins

Jason Alexander, Houston Astros

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

This game sits comfortably below the historical watchability threshold, with both teams fielding mediocre lineups and pitchers who won't dazzle anyone. The 8.31 gNERD score ranks in just the 25th percentile historically, making it one of the less compelling options on a day when games range up to 11.88.

The Rays acquired Houser from the White Sox at the trade deadline, and he'll make his Rays debut after posting a misleading 2.10 ERA that masks underlying concerns. His pNERD of 3.94 reflects poor strikeout ability - ranking in just the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers - and he managed only 2 strikeouts in his previous outing. The underlying metrics suggest regression is coming for someone with such pedestrian stuff.

Kikuchi offers marginally more intrigue with his 4.42 pNERD, boosted by 85th percentile strikeout ability and 97th percentile pitch count per start. However, his fastball velocity has declined 1.4 mph from last year and his spin rate ranks in just the 10th percentile. He's been solid at home with a 2.48 ERA in 12 starts at Angel Stadium, though he lost his last matchup against Tampa Bay in April.

The team dynamics don't elevate the contest much either. Tampa Bay's 5.52 tNERD benefits from strong baserunning and youth, but their fielding ranks among the worst in baseball. The Angels' 2.75 tNERD is dragged down by historically poor defense, though they do possess legitimate power with Taylor Ward leading the club with 26 homers and 82 RBIs. Both teams sit at 54-58, firmly in fourth place in their respective divisions, with little playoff urgency to add drama.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Angels

Adrian Houser, Tampa Bay Rays

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

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San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

This game sits well below the watchability threshold with a gNERD of 7.69, ranking in the bottom 25% of recent games and below today's average of 9.55. The pitching matchup between two struggling starters and Arizona's significantly underperforming offense make this a contest that casual fans might want to skip.

The game's modest watchability stems largely from Arizona's solid tNERD of 7.36, buoyed by their strong offensive metrics when they're clicking. The Diamondbacks are 41-9 in games when they out-hit their opponents, and their batting runs component shows genuine offensive talent. However, San Diego's anemic tNERD of 2.70 reflects their struggles, particularly their barrel rate that ranks among the worst in the sample.

The pitching matchup offers little excitement. JP Sears (7-9, 4.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 97 strikeouts) brings a below-average pNERD of 1.04, hampered by poor swing-and-miss rates and sluggish pace. The left-hander last pitched for the Athletics on Tuesday, when he threw 4 1/3 innings against the Seattle Mariners, allowing two earned runs while giving up five hits. Brandon Pfaadt's moderately better pNERD of 4.29 benefits from his youth and decent underlying metrics, though he gave up seven earned runs and allowed 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday.

The Diamondbacks hold a 4-3 advantage in the season series, but with both teams trending in different directions - the Padres at 62-50 versus Arizona's disappointing 53-59 record - this feels more like obligation viewing than appointment television.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

This matchup features a sizable pitching disparity that should create an entertaining offensive environment, though the 7.62 gNERD score sits well below both the historical average and most games being played today. Eric Lauer brings a solid 6-2 record and 2.68 ERA to the mound, but his history against Colorado is dreadful - he's 1-6 with a 7.58 ERA against them overall and 0-6 with a 12.73 ERA in seven starts at Coors Field. His pNERD of 4.59 ranks around the 50th percentile, making him a middle-tier starter despite his good season numbers.

The real story lies with Tanner Gordon, whose 1.99 pNERD reflects significant struggles with his xFIP- of 118 and poor swinging strike rate. Gordon is making just his third start since being recalled from Triple-A on July 23, and his inexperience shows in the advanced metrics. The Blue Jays' offense should feast against him, particularly Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been productive against right-handed pitching.

Colorado has been surprisingly frisky lately, going 8-7 since the All-Star break and averaging seven runs over their last nine home games. The Rockies' 2.13 tNERD reflects their woeful -102.1 batting runs, but Coors Field's offensive environment can mask many deficiencies. Toronto's superior 6.52 tNERD is bolstered by strong fielding and batting metrics, though their recent 4-6 record suggests some vulnerability.

The altitude and spacious outfield at Coors Field should neutralize some of Lauer's breaking ball effectiveness while amplifying offensive production from both sides, making this a game where runs should come easier than the NERD scores might suggest.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Toronto Blue Jays

Colorado Rockies

Eric Lauer, Toronto Blue Jays

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

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Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

This matchup presents a below-average entertainment prospect, with a gNERD score of 7.09 that sits well under the historical average and ranks in the bottom third of games. The pitching duel features two mediocre starters, with Boston's hot streak providing the main storyline worth following.

At 7.09, this game's gNERD score falls significantly below the historical mean of 10.11 and ranks in just the 30th percentile, making it one of the less compelling matchups available. The Red Sox have won five straight and seven of their last eight after sweeping the Astros over the weekend. With the sweep, Boston moves into second place in the AL East — just three games behind the Blue Jays — and into the first wild card spot. The Red Sox are 12-1 in their last 13 home contests, and they own a 37-21 record at Fenway Park this season, the third-highest home win total in the majors.

The pitching matchup offers little excitement, with both starters posting pNERD scores well below today's average of 4.12. Brayan Bello's 3.48 pNERD reflects decent but unspectacular performance, while Bailey Falter's 0.29 suggests minimal entertainment value. The southpaw will make his first appearance for Kansas City after being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline. Falter, who was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates before the Thursday trade deadline, is 1-1 with a 7.94 ERA in two games (one start) in his career against Boston.

The team dynamics create an interesting contrast, with Boston's 7.49 tNERD ranking above the 75th percentile while Kansas City's 2.92 sits near the bottom quartile. The Red Sox excel across multiple offensive categories, particularly their barrel rate and baserunning, while the Royals struggle offensively despite decent fielding.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Kansas City Royals

Boston Red Sox

Bailey Falter, Kansas City Royals

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

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San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

This game features two pitchers at opposite ends of their career arcs—Verlander trying to salvage a disastrous season and Oviedo making his emotional return from nearly two years away. The gNERD score of 5.97 ranks in the bottom 5th percentile historically, suggesting this won't be the day's most compelling matchup.

Johan Oviedo's return to the Pirates after nearly two years away from Tommy John surgery provides the most compelling storyline, as he faces Justin Verlander in the midst of his own remarkable resurgence after a disastrous first half. Oviedo last pitched in September 2023, going 9-14 with a 4.31 ERA before undergoing elbow surgery, and has posted a 3.12 ERA across five minor league rehab starts this season. His pNERD score of 0.00 simply reflects the lack of current major league data rather than poor performance.

Verlander endured a shocking first half, going winless in his first 15 starts with an 0-8 record, but has allowed just one run over his last two starts spanning 10 innings. His pNERD of 2.13 sits well below the historical median of 4.55, primarily due to his poor xFIP- of 117. The 42-year-old was subject to trade rumors before the deadline but has finally found his stride over his past two starts.

The team components tell a predictable story. Pittsburgh sits at 48-64 but has been playing better lately with a 7-3 record in their last ten games, while San Francisco has struggled recently, going 3-7 in their last ten. Both teams' tNERD scores fall below the historical median, with the Giants' 1.83 particularly weak due to poor baserunning and barrel rate metrics. The Pirates benefit from their low payroll component, which boosts their tNERD to 2.98 despite similarly poor offensive numbers.

The teams just completed a series where Pittsburgh swept San Francisco in three games last week, adding some recent context to this rematch at PNC Park.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Francisco Giants

Pittsburgh Pirates

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

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