MLB: What to watch on August 5, 2025

• 05 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

This Rangers-Yankees clash pits a struggling Bronx offense against Nathan Eovaldi, who's having the best season of his career and owns a history of shutting down his former team. With a gNERD score of 13.52 that ranks in the 91st percentile historically, this matchup promises solid entertainment value despite the Yankees' recent struggles.

Eovaldi enters with a dominant 1.49 ERA and has been particularly sharp lately, going 5-0 with a 0.59 ERA in July to earn AL Pitcher of the Month honors. His pNERD of 8.46 ranks well above average, driven by an excellent xFIP- component that suggests his performance is skill-based rather than luck-driven. The veteran right-hander has struck out 108 Yankees batters in his career, more than any other team, and his post-Yankees career has featured plenty of dominant outings against his former club.

The Yankees counter with rookie Will Warren, whose 5.43 pNERD reflects a pitcher who's been more solid than his 4.64 ERA suggests thanks to a respectable 3.63 FIP. Warren actually dominated this Rangers lineup earlier this season, striking out 10 over 5.2 scoreless innings in May, though the Yankees have dropped four straight games and desperately need offensive production.

The team NERD scores tell an interesting story: the Yankees' 8.15 tNERD reflects their offensive firepower, particularly their league-leading barrel rate, while Texas sits at a more modest 4.99 despite strong baserunning. The Rangers remain in playoff contention, sitting just two games back of the final AL Wild Card spot, adding stakes to this matchup. With Eovaldi's recent dominance and the Yankees' offensive struggles, this game offers the compelling narrative of a former Yankee looking to continue his mastery over his old team.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

New York Yankees

Texas Rangers

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

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Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

This matchup offers compelling drama as Chris Paddack faces his former team just days after being traded from Minnesota to Detroit, creating an intriguing storyline that elevates an otherwise moderate gNERD score of 13.15. The game sits comfortably above the 75th percentile of historical scores, making it a solid choice among today's offerings.

Paddack will make his second start as a Tiger against the Twins, having been dealt to Detroit just last week, and he's already dubbed his former teammates "the bad guys" in anticipation of this matchup. The veteran right-hander's pNERD score of 2.84 reflects his struggles this season, but he's coming off two quality starts, allowing just one run in six innings against both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. His opposing starter, Zebby Matthews, presents a stark contrast with an impressive pNERD of 11.22 that ranks in the 95th percentile historically. The young right-hander's excellent velocity (96.6 mph) and pace components drive his high score, though his last outing was rough, surrendering five runs to Boston.

The team dynamics favor Detroit significantly, with the Tigers posting an 8.79 tNERD that places them among today's top scores. Detroit enters at 66-48 and leads the AL Central, while Minnesota sits at 52-60 and has lost five of six. The Tigers' superior barrel rate and baserunning metrics, combined with their younger roster, create an entertaining contrast against a Twins team that appears to be in full rebuild mode after their trade deadline sell-off.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Chris Paddack, Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

This game features one of the season's most lopsided pitching matchups, with Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet facing rookie Ryan Bergert making his Kansas City debut. The gNERD score of 12.43 sits at the 75th percentile historically, driven almost entirely by Crochet's elite performance metrics.

Bergert is making his Royals debut after being acquired from San Diego at the deadline, which adds intrigue but also uncertainty. The 25-year-old rookie strikes people out (34 in 35.2 innings) but also gives up his fair share of walks (18). His pNERD of 1.92 reflects below-average underlying metrics, particularly his xFIP and command issues that translate to poor strike rate components.

Meanwhile, Crochet's pNERD of 11.97 ranks in the 95th percentile and represents one of today's highest pitcher scores. He's 1-1 with a 1.62 ERA in eight career appearances against Kansas City, including a dominant seven-inning, nine-strikeout performance at Kauffman Stadium in May. His velocity advantage (96.1 mph vs 93.6 mph) and superior command create a substantial mismatch.

Boston has won eight of nine games and is 14-2 in their last 16 home games, while the Red Sox tNERD of 7.63 significantly outpaces Kansas City's 3.33. The Royals' negative batting runs and below-average barrel rate contrast sharply with Boston's positive metrics across most offensive categories.

The game's watchability stems primarily from Crochet's dominance rather than competitive balance - expect a showcase performance from one of baseball's best young arms against a rookie making his first start in a hostile environment.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Kansas City Royals

Boston Red Sox

Ryan Bergert, Kansas City Royals

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

This matchup delivers solid watchability with a gNERD score of 11.11 that sits comfortably above the historical average and matches today's slate well. The pitching duel between José Soriano and Ryan Pepiot offers legitimate intrigue, with Soriano's high-octane arsenal facing off against Pepiot's strikeout potential.

The game's 11.11 gNERD ranks in the 56th percentile historically and aligns with today's average of 10.19, making it a respectable mid-tier option among the day's offerings. Soriano brings his electric but sometimes erratic arsenal with an impressive 8.03 pNERD driven primarily by his 97.2 mph velocity and strong xFIP performance. His command issues (4.06 BB/9) create drama, while Pepiot counters with steadier control and 8.84 K/9 rate despite coming off a rough outing where he allowed seven runs to the Yankees. The Angels hold a slight edge with Pepiot posting a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against the Angels, though Soriano is 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA in six career appearances against Tampa Bay.

Team dynamics favor Tampa Bay slightly with their superior bullpen led by Pete Fairbanks, while the Angels counter with improved recent form including Taylor Ward hitting .364 with 5 RBIs across his last 5 games. The Rays enter needing to bounce back from dropping their first game of their longest road trip of the season, adding mild desperation to their approach. Both teams sit around .500, making this a meaningful late-season clash between clubs still fighting for relevance.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Angels

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

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San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

This rematch pits two pitchers who just faced each other six days ago in a compelling duel that saw the Pirates edge the Giants 2-1 in 10 innings, with both starters delivering quality performances. The game features above-average pitching talent from both sides, though neither team's offense has been particularly inspiring this season.

The game's 10.51 gNERD score sits right at the historical median, making it a solidly watchable contest without being exceptional. Logan Webb's 9.37 pNERD drives most of the appeal, ranking in the 85th percentile of pitcher scores this season. Webb struck out 11 while allowing one run on five hits and four walks over 5 2/3 innings in their previous meeting, marking his fifth double-digit strikeout game this season after needing a bounce-back performance following a rough July stretch. His excellent xFIP- of 68 suggests he's been pitching better than his 3.31 ERA indicates.

Mike Burrows, despite his modest 7.01 pNERD, has been quietly effective lately. The rookie continued a recent stretch of strong outings when he lasted six innings for the second consecutive start, allowing one run on three hits with seven strikeouts against the Giants. Burrows credits much of his success to a changeup he has thrown 24 percent of the time this season, calling it "a great pitch" and "the unsung hero".

The storylines add intrigue beyond the statistics. The Pirates are 4-0 against the Giants this season, and Pittsburgh enters on a three-game home winning streak. Both teams sit well below .500, but the pitching matchup should keep this competitive. Webb's ground ball tendencies should play well in PNC Park, while Burrows will look to continue his recent run of quality starts against a Giants offense that has struggled to generate consistent run production.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Francisco Giants

Pittsburgh Pirates

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Mike Burrows, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Athletics @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

This matchup between two struggling teams offers a surprisingly watchable affair, driven primarily by MacKenzie Gore's elite strikeout potential and an intriguing contrast in recent pitcher form. With a gNERD score of 10.23 sitting right at the historical median, this game delivers solid entertainment value despite neither team being in playoff contention.

The Athletics visit Washington in what's being called an intriguing pitching matchup between Luis Severino and MacKenzie Gore, though both hurlers have struggled with their win-loss records this season. Gore stands out with his pNERD of 7.25, ranking in the 72nd percentile historically, thanks largely to his excellent xFIP- of 86 and 148 strikeouts in 123 innings. His swing-and-miss stuff remains elite despite recent struggles, making him a compelling watch for strikeout enthusiasts.

Severino presents an interesting contrast with his modest pNERD of 3.12, but he's found his groove lately, allowing just five runs over his last 17 innings while recording 17 strikeouts. The Athletics' tNERD of 7.92 benefits significantly from their substantial luck component, suggesting they've been underperforming their underlying metrics and may be due for better results.

Washington enters on a five-game losing streak, which dampens their watchability despite Gore's talent. Both bullpens rank among the worst in baseball, potentially setting up late-game fireworks once the starters exit. The game features two teams with contrasting trajectories - Oakland showing recent signs of life while Washington continues to spiral - creating an interesting dynamic for what should be a competitive, if not spectacular, contest.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Athletics

Washington Nationals

Luis Severino, Athletics

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

This game sits precisely at the median for watchability, but features a compelling underdog story and a pitching mismatch that could create fireworks. The Brewers' playoff-bound lineup faces an overmatched but surprisingly effective waiver-wire pickup in a contest that could swing either way.

The gNERD score of 10.11 lands exactly at the 50th percentile historically, making this an average watch among recent games. However, the individual components tell a more interesting story. Freddy Peralta leads the league with 12 wins and carries a 3.08 ERA, though his pNERD of 4.41 reflects modest effectiveness rather than dominance. He's coming off a rough outing against the Cubs, allowing five runs in four innings, creating potential for either a bounce-back performance or continued struggles.

The real intrigue centers on Joey Wentz, whose 2.19 pNERD understates his recent success. The journeyman lefty is on his third team this season after stints with Pittsburgh and Minnesota, but has posted a 1.50 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 innings since joining Atlanta. His slow pace (20.7 seconds between pitches) won't help the entertainment value, but his underdog status against Milwaukee's potent offense creates compelling tension.

Milwaukee's tNERD of 8.07 reflects strong baserunning and fielding, while their offense gets a boost from Andrew Vaughn's torrid stretch - he's 17-for-39 with four homers over his last 10 games. The Brewers have won 19 of their last 23 games, suggesting this could be a one-sided affair despite the balanced gNERD score.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Atlanta Braves

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

This Cubs-Reds matchup offers solid watchability with a gNERD score that sits right at the historical median, elevated by Chicago's offense and baserunning prowess. The Cubs are in a good position to bounce back after both teams dealt with early starter exits in the series opener.

The 10.09 gNERD score places this game precisely at the 50th percentile historically, making it an average watch among recent games but still worthwhile. Zack Littell makes his Cincinnati debut after being acquired from Tampa Bay last week, stepping into a rotation that desperately needs innings after back-to-back games where starters failed to complete two innings due to rain delays and Nick Lodolo's finger blister. The Cubs' 9.27 tNERD score ranks as the maximum in today's slate, driven by their elite offensive numbers - they rank third in MLB with 159 home runs and second with a .441 slugging percentage. Their baserunning (1.26 component) and fielding (1.32 component) also contribute significantly to their entertainment value.

Shota Imanaga brings an 8-4 record with a 3.25 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 83.2 innings, though he allowed three earned runs over five innings in his last start against Milwaukee. His 3.06 pNERD sits below average, hampered by his elevated xFIP. Littell's 4.10 pNERD is slightly better, though both pitchers throw strikes at high rates. Littell's last outing was strong - five scoreless innings against the Yankees while allowing just two hits. The Cubs enter with a 4-3 season series lead and are positioned atop the NL wild-card race, while Cincinnati sits seven games back at 59-54.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This is a below-average watch with tired bullpens and mediocre starting pitchers creating a recipe for sloppy baseball. The gNERD score of 9.96 falls just below the historical median of 10.10 and today's average of 10.19, making it the definition of middling entertainment value.

Both teams exhausted their bullpens in Monday's extra-inning thriller that saw Cleveland prevail 7-6, meaning managers will desperately need length from starters who rarely provide it. Holmes hasn't completed six innings since early June, while Allen averages just over five innings per start. Neither pitcher inspires confidence - Allen's 4.06 ERA and Holmes' recent struggles suggest we'll see plenty of middle relievers trying to navigate tired arms through crucial innings.

The Mets' tNERD of 8.35 ranks well above average thanks to strong offensive metrics, particularly their excellent barrel rate that sits in the 85th percentile historically. However, the Mets are mired in a 1-6 slide and showing vulnerability everywhere. Cleveland's mediocre 5.08 tNERD reflects their below-average offense, though they're navigating uncharted waters with All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase on administrative leave due to a gambling investigation.

The pitching matchup offers little intrigue - both starters hover around league-average with uninspiring pNERD scores near the 25th percentile. Allen's fast pace provides the lone bright spot in his profile, while Holmes brings nothing particularly compelling to the mound. With depleted bullpens and struggling starters, this shapes up as a game where execution matters more than entertainment.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Cleveland Guardians

New York Mets

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

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Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

This matchup showcases a stark disparity that could create compelling viewing: a talented young pitcher in Bryan Woo facing a historically bad White Sox offense, while Davis Martin tries to contain a Mariners team still fighting for playoff position. The game's 9.76 gNERD score sits slightly below the historical average but remains competitive for today's slate.

Bryan Woo brings the game's highest individual component with his 7.58 pNERD, sporting an impressive 2.98 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 133⅔ innings. His excellent xFIP- of 87 and strong strikeout ability make him the clear focal point, though his last start was concerning, allowing five earned runs and a career-high four home runs to Oakland. The 25-year-old's combination of youth, talent, and bounce-back potential creates intrigue.

Woo faces the White Sox for the first time, which adds novelty to a matchup where Chicago's offense ranks among baseball's worst. The White Sox have scored just 428 runs (3.8 per game) and own a .230 team batting average, both ranking 27th or worse in MLB. However, six White Sox hitters will have the handedness advantage against Woo, which could be problematic given his large platoon split.

Davis Martin's 3.73 pNERD reflects mediocrity across most metrics, though his fast pace provides some entertainment value. He's coming off a solid outing against Philadelphia and has limited Seattle to two runs in 7⅓ innings in their previous meeting. The Mariners' 5.78 tNERD benefits from solid offensive production, while Chicago's 2.42 tNERD reflects their organizational struggles across multiple areas.

Seattle has momentum from Julio Rodriguez's historic achievement, becoming the first player to open a career with four consecutive 20-20 seasons, adding a feel-good storyline to their playoff chase. The game presents a classic David-versus-Goliath dynamic that could either showcase Woo's dominance or produce unexpected drama if Chicago's bats wake up.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Chicago White Sox

Seattle Mariners

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions, with the Astros looking to rebound from their recent struggles against a Marlins squad that just swept the Yankees but faces a bullpen game challenge. The gNERD score of 9.15 sits below both the historical average and today's slate, suggesting moderate watchability despite some compelling storylines.

Houston enters having won the series opener 8-2 behind Jason Alexander's six scoreless innings, but they'll deploy a bullpen game strategy with Steven Okert opening instead of a traditional starter. The Astros are dealing with extensive injuries to their rotation, with multiple starters on the IL including Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Cristian Javier. Jeremy Peña continues his excellent season, hitting .371 over his last 10 games after the Carlos Correa trade deadline acquisition.

Miami comes off sweeping the Yankees but had their five-game winning streak snapped in Monday's loss. Cal Quantrill (4-8, 4.79 ERA) gets the start and is coming off a strong outing where he allowed zero earned runs through five innings against St. Louis. The Marlins' tNERD of 6.65 ranks well above average, boosted significantly by their young roster and low payroll factors, though their on-field performance metrics remain pedestrian.

Despite Miami's reputation for pitcher-friendly conditions, loanDepot park is actually playing as one of MLB's most hitter-friendly venues this year, with both teams averaging 4.3 runs per game offensively. The bullpen game approach might actually favor Houston against Miami's struggles with left-handed pitching, as the Astros can deploy fresh arms throughout the game. The pitching matchup lacks star power with Quantrill's modest 2.38 pNERD and Houston's opener strategy, contributing to the below-average overall game score.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Houston Astros

Miami Marlins

Cal Quantrill, Miami Marlins

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

This game sits firmly in the middle of the watchability pack with a 9.02 gNERD score that falls below both the historical and daily averages, though the pitching matchup offers some intrigue as Emmet Sheehan returns to the starting rotation after Tommy John surgery.

The gNERD score of 9.02 places this game at the 25th percentile historically, making it less compelling than most games. The Cardinals lead the season series 3-1 and are back to .500 in the 2025 season heading into Game 2 after Monday's upset victory. The Dodgers' offensive firepower drives their higher tNERD score of 5.99, powered by excellent batting runs (1.40) and barrel rate (1.00) components, while the Cardinals' 4.52 tNERD reflects their solid fielding (1.22) but struggles in other areas.

The pitching matchup presents the game's most interesting element. Emmet Sheehan, who has a 3.60 ERA in six appearances this season since completing his recovery from Tommy John surgery, brings a solid 5.00 pNERD score with strong velocity (95.8 mph) and swing-and-miss ability. His youth component (0.96) adds to his watchability as he continues his comeback. Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas has an ERA pushing 5.00 in 2025 and has posted a 5.81 ERA over his last 10 starts, reflected in his below-average 2.53 pNERD score, though his faster pace (0.41) helps the viewing experience.

The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .237 batting average, while the Cardinals are 4-6 with a .193 batting average, suggesting both teams are scuffling offensively. With both clubs ranking among the better over teams this season, the game could provide scoring despite recent offensive struggles.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

St. Louis Cardinals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

This matchup pits a struggling veteran against a surging breakout performer, creating a compelling contrast despite the game's modest gNERD score of 8.18. While the game falls below both the historical average (10.11) and today's slate (10.19), Arizona's strong offensive metrics and Nelson's recent dominance offer enough intrigue to warrant attention.

Yu Darvish enters with a concerning 6.46 ERA despite striking out seven over seven shutout innings in his most recent start against the Mets, marking just his fifth appearance since returning from injury. The 38-year-old's pNERD of 1.91 reflects his struggles this season, particularly his slow pace (20.7 seconds between pitches) that drags down the entertainment value. He previously allowed two runs in just 3⅔ innings against Arizona last month, suggesting continued difficulties.

In contrast, Ryne Nelson has been excellent with a 1.95 ERA over his last nine starts, leading Arizona to seven wins in that stretch. His 4.39 pNERD benefits from solid velocity (95.5 mph) and youth, though his strike rate and swinging strike percentages remain pedestrian. Nelson has established himself as a rotation mainstay since replacing the injured Corbin Burnes, going 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA in his last nine starts.

Arizona's offensive strength drives their 7.34 tNERD, ranking well above average with positive contributions across batting runs (1.12), barrel rate (0.36), and baserunning (0.60). The D-backs went through a rough July (9-16) that prompted a trade deadline sell-off, but they've won three straight after losing nine of ten. San Diego's 2.71 tNERD reflects offensive struggles, particularly their poor barrel rate (-1.26), though they've won seven of their last eight games and remain in wild-card contention.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

This matchup presents a stark talent disparity that makes it a one-sided affair rather than compelling theater. The Blue Jays' 6.68 tNERD significantly outclasses Colorado's 1.97, reflecting the Rockies' league-worst 5.76 team ERA and 30-82 record against Toronto's AL East-leading 66-48 mark.

The gNERD of 8.08 falls below both the historical average (10.11) and the 25th percentile (8.35), ranking it among the less entertaining games available. Toronto's offensive explosion in Monday's 15-1 rout, where they collected a season-high 25 hits and Ernie Clement had five hits, sets up an unbalanced sequel that lacks competitive tension. Anthony Molina makes his first start of the season for Colorado, bringing a 0.00 pNERD due to insufficient data, while José Berríos carries a 3.84 ERA with 111 strikeouts in 131⅓ innings, though he struggled in his last outing against Baltimore, allowing two earned runs in just 4⅓ innings. The Blue Jays' superior fielding (1.53 component) and batting (1.19) create a mismatch against Colorado's league-worst pitching staff. Berríos has dominated Colorado historically, winning both career starts over 14⅔ shutout innings, though this marks his Coors Field debut. With Toronto seeking to clinch the series and Colorado struggling with early deficits in recent games, this shapes up as another lopsided contest rather than must-see baseball.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Toronto Blue Jays

Colorado Rockies

José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays

Anthony Molina, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

This matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions offers modest entertainment value, with Philadelphia's home dominance facing off against Baltimore's post-deadline struggles. The gNERD score of 7.48 sits well below the historical average of 10.11 and ranks among the day's least compelling games.

The Orioles were not supposed to be this bad, coming off two consecutive playoff appearances, but now find themselves well out of the race with a team ERA of 4.83. Baltimore became sellers at the deadline, trading away key pieces including Seranthony Dominguez, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, and Ramon Laureano. Their 24-35 road record contrasts sharply with Philadelphia's 36-20 home mark.

The pitching matchup features Dean Kremer, whose 3.67 pNERD sits slightly below average, against Taijuan Walker's concerning 2.07 pNERD. Kremer has posted a 3.39 ERA over his last 16 starts after a brutal April, though he's hit a rough patch recently, allowing eight runs across his last 11 innings. Walker's underlying metrics are troubling, with his xFIP- of 113 suggesting regression is coming despite his 3.82 ERA.

Kyle Schwarber's torrid pace continues, having hit his 40th home run in just 112 games, which could spell trouble for Kremer in the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies' superior tNERD of 6.48 reflects their strong baserunning and offensive production, while Baltimore's anemic 2.74 tNERD stems from poor fielding and baserunning metrics.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Baltimore Orioles

Philadelphia Phillies

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

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