MLB: What to watch on August 6, 2025

• 06 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.

This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.

Detail

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets, 10:10a

Summary

The Guardians and Mets serve up a potentially electric matchup with a game NERD score that puts it squarely in the top quartile of MLB entertainment value. With starting pitchers Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.33 ERA) and David Peterson (7-4, 2.84 ERA) both bringing solid season performances, this game promises strategic pitching and competitive play. The NERD score of 11.84 places it well above the historical median of 10.10, suggesting a game packed with statistical intrigue and potential excitement.

The Mets come in with a strong home record of 38-20, sitting at 63-51 overall, while the Guardians are 58-55. The pitching matchup is particularly compelling: Williams has 117 strikeouts compared to Peterson's 105, setting the stage for a potential pitcher's duel. The Mets boast the fifth-ranked team slugging percentage in the NL, which could create some interesting offensive moments against Williams.

The game's watchability is further enhanced by the nuanced team statistics. Both teams enter with identical 5-5 records in their last 10 games, suggesting an evenly matched contest. The Guardians recently beat the Mets 3-2, with Steven Kwan singling home the tiebreaking run in the seventh inning, adding a layer of recent competitive history to this matchup.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Cleveland Guardians

New York Mets

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

David Peterson, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

The Reds-Cubs matchup promises a pitching duel between two rising stars, with Andrew Abbott and Cade Horton set to showcase their impressive recent performances. Abbott continues his breakthrough season with an 8-1 record and is particularly effective against the Cubs, boasting a career ERA of 2.30 over five starts. Meanwhile, Cubs rookie Cade Horton has been "downright stingy," allowing just eight hits and striking out 10 batters in 17 shutout innings over his past three starts—a remarkable feat for the 23-year-old Oklahoma native who recently adjusted to major league play.

The game carries additional intrigue with both teams jockeying for position in the NL Central. The Cubs have fallen four games back of the division-leading Brewers, while the Reds have won eight of their last 12 contests to sit a season-high six games over .500. Chicago's offense, featuring power hitters like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, has cooled off recently, scoring only three runs in their last two games. Abbott could prove particularly challenging, as he's adept at limiting hard contact, allows just 11 home runs all season, and holds righties to a .215 average—which could spell trouble for the Cubs' predominantly right-handed lineup. With a gNERD score of 11.64, this game promises to be a compelling battle between two talented young pitchers and competitive teams.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

Go back to top of page

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the Tigers in a game that promises more intrigue than its modest NERD score suggests, with a pitching performance that could swing the entire contest. Flaherty's recent history with the Tigers has been rocky, posting a 5-10 record with a 4.77 ERA after a promising 7-5, 2.95 ERA performance last season. However, he's shown recent improvement, with his manager praising his fastball location and ability to mix pitches, noting he was "in complete control of the game" in a recent start. Historically, he's performed decently against Minnesota, with a 3.00 ERA in three career starts. The game's watchability hinges on several fascinating elements: The Tigers are dominating at home with a 37-22 record, while the Twins struggle on the road. This is the ninth meeting between the teams this season, with Detroit holding a 5-3 advantage. Adding spice to the matchup, Byron Buxton is having a stellar season, hitting .282 with 23 home runs and 17 stolen bases, and he presents a significant challenge to Flaherty, who has shown vulnerability to power hitters. The game's NERD score of 11.46 suggests more entertainment value than the teams' recent performances might indicate, with Detroit ranking ninth in team OPS and scoring 4.82 runs per game, while Minnesota struggles with plate discipline and hitting. Despite the Tigers' recent struggles, this game could be a pivotal moment in their season.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Go back to top of page

Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies, 9:35a

Summary

This game promises to be a pitching duel that could leave fans on the edge of their seats. We're in for a really good pitching matchup, with both Rogers and Suárez having done a great job in their innings, and expected to continue dominating. Trevor Rogers has been particularly impressive, recently dominating a potent Cubs lineup over eight innings, allowing just one run on four hits and zero walks - though unfortunately taking a loss due to his team's offensive struggles.

The Phillies come into this game with significant momentum. They're having a strong season with a 65-48 record and have been especially formidable at home, boasting a 37-20 record at Citizens Bank Park. They're already 2-0 in the season series against the Orioles, having outscored Baltimore 18-3 in their previous two meetings.

Ranger Suárez has been a standout for the Phillies, with an 8-4 record, a 2.68 ERA, 95 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings, and allowing just a .225 batting average to opponents. The Phillies' lineup adds extra firepower, with Kyle Schwarber leading the team with 40 home runs and 94 RBIs, ranking second in homers and first in RBIs across MLB.

The Orioles, meanwhile, are struggling. They sit at 51-63, ranked 5th in the AL East, and have lost their last three games. Their pitching staff ranks 27th in ERA (4.90) and has the fourth-highest WHIP (1.412) in the majors. Despite this, Trevor Rogers has been a bright spot, boasting a 1.44 ERA, 2.60 FIP, and an impressive 0.746 WHIP.

With a game NERD score of 11.00 - well above the daily average of 9.79 - this matchup offers plenty of analytical intrigue and potential for exciting baseball. The Phillies are favored at -154, with the run line also in their favor, setting the stage for what could be a compelling contest between two contrasting teams.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Baltimore Orioles

Philadelphia Phillies

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

Go back to top of page

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

The Yankees-Rangers matchup promises an intriguing battle with a high-octane NERD score of 10.89, positioning it as one of the most watchable games of the day. Carlos Rodón brings consistent performance with over a strikeout per inning, while Jack Leiter remains vulnerable to occasional big innings. The game gains extra spice with Aaron Judge's return from injury as designated hitter, though he struggled in his first game back, going 0 for 3 with two strikeouts. The Rangers are fighting for playoff positioning, currently sitting just two games back of the final AL Wild Card spot, which adds competitive urgency to the contest. With Rodón's impressive 156 strikeouts and the game's robust NERD score sitting well above the daily average of 9.79, baseball fans are in for a statistically rich and potentially dramatic showdown between two teams with something to prove.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

New York Yankees

Texas Rangers

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Go back to top of page

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins, 1:40p

Summary

The Astros and Marlins wrap up their series with a potentially intriguing pitching comeback story, as Spencer Arrighetti returns from a four-month injury layoff to face Janson Junk in a game that boasts a compelling 10.80 gNERD score.

Arrighetti is returning after a four-month absence due to a fractured thumb, coming in with a 1-1 record and 5.59 ERA in limited innings. The Astros are hoping he can quickly return to his full potential. Meanwhile, Janson Junk has been a consistent performer for the Marlins, sporting a solid 5-2 record with a 3.86 ERA. The game carries additional intrigue as the Astros are going for a series sweep after winning the first two games, having already clinched the season series against Miami.

The NERD score of 10.80 places this game well above the daily average of 9.79, suggesting high entertainment potential. The Astros have been particularly dangerous as underdogs, winning 60% of their 35 games in that role this season. However, there are concerns about Arrighetti's potential rust, and some analysts believe Junk could lead the Marlins to victory.

The game features some intriguing individual performances to watch, including Jose Altuve with 17 doubles and 18 home runs, Jeremy Pena batting .324, and Yainer Diaz hitting .255 with 15 home runs. With a gNERD score that suggests a potentially thrilling matchup, baseball fans should find plenty to enjoy in this series finale.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Houston Astros

Miami Marlins

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Go back to top of page

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

The Dodgers' explosive offense meets Matthew Liberatore's crafty left-handed pitching in a game that promises more fireworks than a predictable summer blockbuster. With Liberatore facing off against Shohei Ohtani, and the Dodgers boasting the third-best offense in baseball, this matchup has all the ingredients for an entertaining slugfest.

Liberatore brings a solid 3.52 ERA and an ability to keep hitters off-balance with a mix of fastballs and off-speed pitches. However, he faces a significant challenge against the Dodgers' potent lineup, with the expectation that Ohtani might only pitch a few innings - though the Dodgers should still maintain the upper hand.

The game's intrigue comes from multiple angles. While Ohtani boasts an impressive 164 wRC+, the Dodgers' offensive leader is actually catcher Will Smith, with a stunning 171 wRC+. The Dodgers are particularly dangerous at home, with a 36-22 home record and leading the NL in home runs, averaging 1.5 per game.

This is the sixth meeting between these teams this season, with the Cardinals holding a slim 3-2 advantage in the season series. Ohtani is batting .274 with 38 home runs, while Smith leads the team with a .321 batting average. With a game NERD score of 10.34, this matchup promises to be a statistical playground of baseball entertainment.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

St. Louis Cardinals

Los Angeles Dodgers

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Spencer Strider brings electricity to the mound with a high-octane pitching profile that stands in stark contrast to Jose Quintana's more subdued approach. Strider is making his 15th start of the season, sporting a 5-8 record with a 3.71 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings. The game's NERD score of 10.15 suggests a potentially captivating matchup, especially when you consider the underlying team dynamics. The Brewers boast an impressive 69-44 record and the second-ranked team on-base percentage in the NL at .329, while the Braves are looking to break a four-game home skid, sitting at a challenging 47-65 overall with a 26-28 home record.

The pitching duel promises intrigue, with Strider's electric arm standing out. Historically, he's accumulated 587 strikeouts in 406 innings, maintains a career 3.52 ERA, and boasts an impressive 4.16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In contrast, Quintana brings a more measured approach with 1,786 career strikeouts, a 3.68 FIP, and a career 3.73 ERA. This is the sixth meeting between these teams this season, with the Brewers leading the season series 3-2, adding an extra layer of competitive tension to the game.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Atlanta Braves

Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Go back to top of page

Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

George Kirby's stellar pitching and the Mariners' offensive prowess make this a must-watch game, despite the White Sox's struggling season. Kirby is having a solid season, sporting a 6-5 record with a 4.12 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 72 2/3 innings. In his most recent start, he went six scoreless innings against the Texas Rangers, showcasing his ability to dominate on the mound. The game's high 9.75 gNERD score is primarily driven by Kirby's impressive 7.95 pNERD, which ranks well above the day's average of 4.48.

The pitching matchup is particularly intriguing, with Jonathan Cannon bringing a career FIP of 4.55 and a somewhat pedestrian track record of 9.3 hits per 9 innings. In contrast, Kirby boasts a career FIP of 3.5, a 3.52 ERA, and an impressive 6.80 K/BB ratio. The Mariners' offensive support further enhances the game's appeal, with 159 home runs, 490 RBIs, and a team batting average of .243.

The Mariners are also in an interesting spot, sitting just 3.0 games behind the Astros in the AL West, which adds some additional stakes to their performance. While the White Sox are struggling with a 42-70 record, the potential for an upset and Kirby's pitching make this game more watchable than the team's record might suggest.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Chicago White Sox

Seattle Mariners

Jonathan Cannon, Chicago White Sox

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Go back to top of page

Toronto Blue Jays @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

The Blue Jays bring a potent offense and statistical superiority to Coors Field, promising a lopsided but potentially high-scoring affair against the struggling Rockies. Toronto leads the majors with a .263 batting average and ranks eighth in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game, while Colorado languishes with the 24th-ranked team batting average and just 3.8 runs per game. Kevin Gausman takes the mound with a solid 5.17 pNERD, facing off against Kyle Freeland in what looks to be a mismatch. The Blue Jays are heavily favored at -235, with a 1.5-run advantage, and their impressive team metrics suggest they'll continue their offensive dominance. In the previous game, they went deep five times in a 10-4 victory, with standout performers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.288 with 16 home runs) and Bo Bichette (leading the team with 74 RBIs) ready to potentially add to the Rockies' misery. The game's high 11.5-run over/under hints at an offensive showcase, making this a potentially entertaining slugfest despite the expected Blue Jays blowout.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Toronto Blue Jays

Colorado Rockies

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

Athletics @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

The Athletics and Nationals square off in a game that promises more intrigue than its modest NERD score suggests, with Cade Cavalli making a long-awaited return to major league action. Cavalli will be starting for the Nationals, marking his first appearance on the mound in around three years. While the game's 8.99 gNERD score sits comfortably in the middle of today's range, the underlying narratives make it compelling. Cavalli is returning after Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons, and he's been posting impressive numbers in the minors with a 2.89 ERA and 9.88 K/9 across 37 1/3 innings. For the Athletics, Springs has been a reliable arm, and the team's young core is showing signs of progress, with the A's clearly making more strides than the Nationals this season. Springs has been solid recently, with three quality starts in his last four outings and a 4.13 ERA with a 95:39 K:BB ratio through 120 innings. The game offers a glimpse of potential future talent, particularly with rookie Nick Kurtz continuing to impress for the Athletics. While the team metrics suggest the Athletics have an edge, the real story is Cavalli's comeback and the opportunity to see a promising young pitcher take the mound after a challenging recovery.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Athletics

Washington Nationals

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

The Padres and Diamondbacks clash in a potentially entertaining slugfest, with Arizona's surprisingly potent offense looking to exploit San Diego's pitching vulnerabilities. The Diamondbacks' pitching has struggled recently, allowing 11 home runs over the last 10 games, while the Padres have been hitting well, slugging .431 with 2.9 extra-base hits per game and averaging 10.3 hits per game with a .292 batting average. The game's watchability stems from some intriguing offensive dynamics: Manny Machado leads San Diego with a .415 batting average, hitting one home run and driving in nine RBIs, while Luis Arraez is slashing .357/.400/.452. With breakout hitters like Ketel Marte and Manny Machado, this matchup promises intrigue and could influence playoff positioning as the regular season enters its home stretch. The game's NERD score of 8.93 suggests an above-average entertainment value, particularly given the Diamondbacks' recent performance of 10 home runs and .368 slugging over their last 10 games. Anthony DeSclafani brings some intrigue with his solid right-handed pitching for the Diamondbacks, who are currently fourth in the NL West, while the Padres look to continue their recent strong play.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Nestor Cortes, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Anthony DeSclafani, Arizona Diamondbacks

Go back to top of page

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

The gNERD score of 8.52 suggests a moderately entertaining game, but the real intrigue lies in the pitching matchup. Dustin May is making his Boston debut after five and a half seasons with the Dodgers, having battled injuries throughout his career and making a career-high 18 starts this year. However, he's struggled recently with a 5.95 ERA over his last seven starts, and lefties are hitting .253/.346/.472 against him this season. On the other hand, he throws a sweeper 41 percent of the time with a 28 percent whiff rate, and opponents are hitting just .111 against his 95 mph four-seamer.

Michael Wacha provides a counterpoint of stability, coming off an excellent start with just 1 run in 8 innings against the Blue Jays. The game also carries additional weight as the Red Sox are red hot, winning 20 of 27 games and boasting the best record in the American League since the end of June, with a impressive 37-21 home record. The Red Sox are looking to extend a seven-game home winning streak, which adds an extra layer of excitement to this matchup.

The team dynamics are equally compelling. The Royals average 3.67 runs scored per game (29th in MLB), while the Red Sox score 4.96 runs per game (5th in MLB). This offensive disparity, combined with the Red Sox's recent dominance, suggests a potentially lopsided but intriguing contest. The Red Sox are already up 4-1 in the season series, adding a narrative of potential series clinching to the game's watchability.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Kansas City Royals

Boston Red Sox

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Dustin May, Boston Red Sox

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels square off in a pitching duel that's more whimper than roar, featuring two struggling starters looking to break their respective losing streaks. Shane Baz, a right-hander with an 8-8 record and 4.79 ERA, is hoping to get back on track after a recent rough patch. He's lost five consecutive starts and hasn't picked up a win since late June. His counterpart, Tyler Anderson, is equally desperate, entering with a 2-7 record, 4.49 ERA, and 92 strikeouts in 118 1/3 innings. The game's intrigue lies not in stellar pitching, but in the potential for a breakthrough performance from either hurler.

The NERD score of 7.79 suggests more promise than the pitchers' recent form would indicate. The matchup does offer some offensive excitement, with the Rays' young slugger Junior Caminero providing power in the middle of their lineup, and Mike Trout remaining one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. The Angels are struggling offensively, with a .233 team batting average, leading the MLB in strikeouts, and scoring just 4.35 runs per game. The Rays aren't much better, having gone 2-8 in their last 10 games with a .206 team batting average. This game promises to be a battle of who can underperform less spectacularly.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Angels

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels

Go back to top of page

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

The rubber match between the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates promises a pitching duel with more statistical intrigue than excitement. Robbie Ray takes the mound for his league-leading 24th start, boasting an impressive 9-5 record with a 2.85 ERA and 140 strikeouts. However, Ray has cooled off after a strong first half and is winless in his last five starts. His opponent, Andrew Heaney, struggles with a 5-9 record and 4.89 ERA, having posted a brutal 9.00 ERA in his four July starts.

The game carries subtle drama, as the Pirates previously swept the Giants in San Francisco, effectively turning the Giants from potential trade deadline buyers to sellers. Pittsburgh has won 9 of 12 games and is strong at home (31-25), while the Giants are just 6-14 in their last 20 games. Keep an eye on Oneil Cruz's power (18 home runs) and the fact that four Giants hitters have previously homered against Heaney. While not a must-watch blockbuster, this game offers the subtle tension of a team fighting to avoid complete irrelevance.

(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

San Francisco Giants

Pittsburgh Pirates

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

Andrew Heaney, Pittsburgh Pirates

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 5, 2025
• Next →
  How to choose which baseball game to watch