MLB: What to watch on August 7, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better.
This is inspired by Carson Cistulli's NERD scores at FanGraphs. (I'll write a bit about the details of my implementation on GitHub soon, and then link to that from this intro.)
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0 | 1:10p | Chicago White Sox | 2.7 | Seattle Mariners | 6.0 | Shane Smith | 4.1 | Logan Gilbert | 11.1 |
| 10.9 | 3:40p | Cincinnati Reds | 3.8 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2.8 | Brady Singer | 4.0 | Paul Skenes | 11.2 |
| 10.8 | 4:15p | Miami Marlins | 6.7 | Atlanta Braves | 5.7 | Eury Pérez | 7.0 | Carlos Carrasco | 2.1 |
| 7.5 | 9:05a | Athletics | 8.0 | Washington Nationals | 2.0 | Jacob Lopez | 3.3 | Mitchell Parker | 1.6 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
Detail
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p
Summary
Logan Gilbert is set to dominate in a pitching clinic against the struggling White Sox, making this game a must-watch for fans craving a masterclass in precision and power. Gilbert has been pitching like a true ace with elite strikeout numbers, averaging 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and has previously torched the White Sox with 10 strikeouts in just 6 innings.
The game promises to be a stark mismatch, with the White Sox (42-72) facing off against the surging Mariners (62-53), sending Shane Smith to the mound in hopes of salvaging a game after dropping the first two in the series. Gilbert presents a massive pitching advantage, showing exceptional command and the ability to limit baserunners with a 0.98 WHIP against a White Sox team that ranks 27th in MLB in on-base percentage.
The statistical disparity is glaring. The Mariners rank fourth in MLB with 162 home runs, averaging 1.4 per game, while the White Sox have hit just 107 homers this season. Seattle boasts the 12th-ranked offense, scoring 4.6 runs per game, compared to Chicago's 27th-ranked output of just 3.8 runs per game. The Mariners' bullpen further compounds Chicago's challenges, ranking 5th in MLB with a 3.38 ERA and featuring dominant closer Andres Munoz, while the White Sox bullpen languishes with a 4.82 ERA and has been further weakened by recent trades.
For those seeking a statistical beatdown, this game delivers. The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 games when Gilbert starts at home, and the White Sox have lost 12 of their last 16 games against right-handed starters. Baseball purists and analytics enthusiasts will find plenty to appreciate in what promises to be a clinic of pitching superiority.
(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Chicago White Sox
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -70.7 | 8.1% | -3.5 | -25.5 | $79.0M | 27.5 | -11.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.40 | -0.40 | -0.67 | -1.36 | -1.26 | -1.25 | -0.56 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.40 | -0.40 | -0.67 | -1.36 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.68 |
Seattle Mariners
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 51.9 | 9.3% | -0.3 | -17.9 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 13.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.05 | 0.59 | -0.11 | -0.96 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.63 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.05 | 0.59 | -0.11 | -0.96 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 4.00 | 6.02 |
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 109 | 11.3% | 63.0% | 95.3 mph | 25 | 19.3s | -5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.49 | 0.39 | -0.49 | 0.69 | -0.96 | 0.63 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.98 | 0.19 | -0.24 | 0.69 | 0.96 | -0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.11 |
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 57 | 16.0% | 66.6% | 95.5 mph | 28 | 20.6s | 34 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.63 | 2.68 | 1.05 | 0.78 | -0.20 | 1.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 5.26 | 1.34 | 0.52 | 0.78 | 0.20 | -0.84 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 11.11 |
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p
Summary
Paul Skenes brings electrifying potential to a pivotal NL Central showdown, transforming what could be a mundane midweek game into a must-watch pitching spectacle. This series opener features one of baseball's most electric young arms against a Reds team fighting for playoff relevance. Skenes is actively building his case for the National League Cy Young Award, and he's doing so with remarkable consistency. In 23 starts spanning 138 innings, he boasts a 2.02 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an impressive 10.0 K/9, with 14 quality starts in his 23 outings. He's particularly dominant at home, sporting a 1.83 ERA at PNC Park, with a combination of velocity, command, and poise that makes him one of the game's most unhittable pitchers. Brady Singer, meanwhile, is trying to help the Reds bounce back from a loss and keep their wild-card hopes alive. The Reds are resilient in close games (17-12 in one-run contests) and have been playing to the under in recent starts, which could set the stage for a tightly contested pitcher's duel that baseball purists will savor.
(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -30.6 | 7.0% | 6.5 | -4.1 | $115.7M | 28.7 | -24.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.59 | -1.31 | 1.09 | -0.22 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -1.20 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.59 | -1.31 | 1.09 | -0.22 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.76 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -95.7 | 8.2% | -6.6 | 12.9 | $88.9M | 28.4 | 3.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.89 | -0.32 | -1.22 | 0.68 | -1.13 | -0.33 | 0.14 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.89 | -0.32 | -1.22 | 0.68 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 4.00 | 2.85 |
Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 104 | 9.6% | 62.4% | 92.1 mph | 28 | 16.1s | -5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.19 | -0.44 | -0.74 | -0.76 | -0.20 | -1.95 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.38 | -0.22 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 76 | 14.1% | 64.5% | 98.2 mph | 23 | 18.6s | -29 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.49 | 1.75 | 0.16 | 2.01 | -1.48 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.98 | 0.88 | 0.08 | 2.00 | 1.48 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 11.18 |
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p
Summary
The high-octane pitching duel between Eury Pérez and Carlos Carrasco promises a compelling clash, with Pérez emerging as a must-watch young talent despite his historical struggles against the Braves. Pérez has been phenomenal in his last six starts, going 4-1 with a minuscule 1.06 ERA. During this remarkable stretch, the 22-year-old has allowed just four runs over 34 innings, striking out 37 while holding opponents to an anemic .132 batting average. He's even made MLB history as the first Marlins pitcher to allow 15 hits while maintaining a sub-1.50 ERA across six starts.
However, Pérez will be looking to exorcise some demons against the Braves, as his previous two starts against them have resulted in an ugly 0-2 record with a 16.20 ERA. In his last outing against Atlanta, they tagged him for three runs on four hits in just 4 2/3 innings.
The backdrop adds intrigue, with the Braves struggling mightily, having lost 11 of their last 14 games and sitting a season-worst 19 games below .500 - nine games behind the Marlins in the NL East. The game also features an exciting rookie catcher matchup between Miami's Agustin Ramirez (leading NL rookies in multiple categories) and Atlanta's Drake Baldwin. With a game NERD score of 10.76 and both pitchers bringing compelling storylines, this matchup offers more than just your average baseball game.
(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Miami Marlins
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -13.0 | 8.0% | -3.3 | 5.8 | $67.3M | 26.8 | 8.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.24 | -0.48 | -0.63 | 0.30 | -1.42 | -1.96 | 0.38 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.24 | -0.48 | -0.63 | 0.30 | 1.42 | 1.96 | 0.38 | 4.00 | 6.71 |
Atlanta Braves
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -10.6 | 9.2% | -3.5 | 14.1 | $216.2M | 29.4 | 26.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.19 | 0.50 | -0.67 | 0.74 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 1.27 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.19 | 0.50 | -0.67 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 4.00 | 5.66 |
Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 12.4% | 63.9% | 97.9 mph | 22 | 20.2s | -39 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.07 | 0.93 | -0.10 | 1.87 | -1.73 | 1.36 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.14 | 0.46 | -0.05 | 1.87 | 1.73 | -0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.00 |
Carlos Carrasco, Atlanta Braves
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 112 | 10.7% | 61.7% | 91.2 mph | 38 | 18.3s | 28 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.67 | 0.10 | -1.00 | -1.17 | 2.37 | -0.17 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.34 | 0.05 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.14 |
Athletics @ Washington Nationals, 9:05a
Summary
The gNERD score of 7.47 suggests a moderately entertaining game between two struggling teams looking to salvage some pride. The Athletics are playing without a true home, waiting to move to Las Vegas, and are in last place in the AL West. Jacob Lopez brings some intrigue to the mound with a solid 3.99 ERA, 84 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings, and a impressive 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Opposing hitters are batting just .238 against him, and he's logged four quality starts this season. His most recent outing saw him toss five scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks.
Mitchell Parker, on the other hand, is struggling with a 5.35 ERA, having allowed 130 hits in 117.2 innings, including 15 home runs. He's walked 43 and struck out 77 batters. Parker doesn't generate many strikeouts, which means more balls will be put in play - potentially exciting news for the Athletics' power-hitting lineup.
The Athletics boast the fifth-best team slugging percentage in the majors, with Brent Rooker leading the team with 52 extra-base hits. They've been particularly hot recently, going 7-3 in their last 10 games with a .310 batting average and impressive 3.20 ERA. They've already shown offensive firepower in this series, crushing a 16-7 win in the series opener. While not a marquee matchup, this game promises plenty of potential offensive fireworks from a pair of teams with nothing to lose.
(Claude generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Athletics
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 27.1 | 8.4% | 1.0 | -17.2 | $77.1M | 27.6 | 48.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.56 | -0.15 | 0.12 | -0.92 | -1.29 | -1.14 | 2.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.56 | -0.15 | 0.12 | -0.92 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 8.04 |
Washington Nationals
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -28.8 | 7.6% | -4.0 | -35.5 | $115.9M | 27.5 | -23.0 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.56 | -0.81 | -0.76 | -1.89 | -0.77 | -1.25 | -1.15 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.56 | -0.81 | -0.76 | -1.89 | 0.77 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 1.99 |
Jacob Lopez, Athletics
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 106 | 11.6% | 61.6% | 90.8 mph | 27 | 18.6s | -10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.31 | 0.54 | -1.06 | -1.36 | -0.45 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.62 | 0.27 | -0.53 | 0.00 | 0.45 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.34 |
Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 124 | 9.3% | 66.5% | 92.9 mph | 25 | 20.2s | 4 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.39 | -0.58 | 1.00 | -0.40 | -0.96 | 1.36 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.78 | -0.29 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.96 | -0.68 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.56 |