MLB: What to watch on August 9, 2025

• 09 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ Texas Rangers, 4:15p

Summary

This is a top-tier watch: the gNERD (15.44) sits above the historical 95th percentile, and you get two very high‑pNERD starters in a game that pairs swing‑and‑miss stuff with a legitimately dangerous Phillies lineup. Both Jacob deGrom and Jesús Luzardo profile as the kind of pitchers who create empty counts and strikeouts—deGrom’s underlying metrics (excellent xFIP-, elite swing‑and‑miss and premium velocity) and Luzardo’s uptick in velocity and changeup after returning to health suggest a lot of whiffs and inning‑lengthening stuff. DeGrom has had a hiccup or two with command recently, so there’s a real contest between his excellence and the Phillies’ power—meaning any lapse could produce big innings. The Phillies’ offense has been loud (multi‑homer nights and run support), so this won’t be a stodgy pitchers’ duel even if both starters bring elite peripherals. Put simply: with pNERDs of 9.04 and 9.67—well above the pitcher mean—and a 7.11 tNERD for Philly, expect a high‑leverage, high‑event game worth prioritizing for strikeouts, velocity, and out‑of‑nowhere offense.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Philadelphia Phillies

Texas Rangers

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros @ New York Yankees, 11:05a

Summary

This is one to pencil in: a legitimately above-average gNERD driven by a steady, high-quality Framber Valdez against a Yankees lineup that can hit you into next week — while Luis Gil’s comeback arc makes the outcome feel a bit volatile. The 12.37 gNERD sits well above today’s mean and just nudges past the historical 75th percentile, meaning this should be more entertaining than most games on the slate.

Valdez’s strong pNERD (7.48) is justified by an excellent xFIP- and strikeout profile, and even his recent one-off bad outing in Boston looks more like noise than a trend; that gives you the textbook “watch for pitcher excellence” story. New York’s high tNERD (7.60) reflects a heavy-barrel, run-producing offense that will test Valdez’s craft; conversely, the Yankees have been scuffling in recent at-bats, which adds drama to every plate appearance. Luis Gil’s pNERD is listed at 0 because we don’t have stable season metrics here, and he’s only just back from a months-long lat shutdown and an uneven first outing (five runs in 3.1 IP), which injects real uncertainty into the matchup.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Houston Astros

New York Yankees

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

This one’s worth a look: a modestly above-average gNERD (11.54) lines up a durable, craft-heavy Chris Bassitt against a high-ceiling Blake Snell who’s just back from the injured list — so you get innings stability mixed with true strikeout upside and a compelling storyline. The gNERD sits above the seasonal mean and today’s average, driven by two potent lineups (both teams’ tNERDs sit well above typical team scores) and Bassitt’s positive pitching components, especially his favorable xFIP- contribution; that combination nudges the game into “watchable” territory even if it’s not elite. Bassitt has been steady and tossed a quality start in his last outing, though he’s had trouble with this Dodgers lineup in the past. Snell’s return — his first extended action since the IL and a recent eight-strikeout outing — supplies real upside if his command holds, but his limited innings and a higher walk rate argue for an early hook and bullpen dependence. Finally, both bullpens and matchup history (Dodgers’ lefty power vs. Bassitt) make the middle innings unpredictable, so tune in for the first five-to-six frames and the Snell storyline rather than expecting a long, clean duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Toronto Blue Jays

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p

Summary

This is an offense-first game: two high-tNERD clubs make for likely action on the bases and at the plate, but the pitching matchup is more mild curiosity than must-see duel. The gNERD of 11.32 is comfortably above today’s mean and the historical median, so this is a better-than-average watch for viewers who like contact, barrels, and baserunning rather than a high-strikeout pitching clinic. Both teams’ tNERDs are lofty—Mets strength in barrels and baserunning, Brewers in baserunning and above-average defense—so expect hustle, small-ball elements, and run-creating plays. Milwaukee’s Tobias Myers (pNERD 1.45) is a modestly positive story but his peripherals (poor xFIP-related components and a low whiff rate) temper excitement; he was recalled to take a turn after a roster move. The Mets starter is listed as TBD, and the club’s rotation has been a talking point all month with prospect options looming—so the unknown could either sap or add intrigue. Bottom line: tune in for traffic on the bases and timely hitting; don’t expect a long, overpowering pitchers’ duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers

Tobias Myers, Milwaukee Brewers

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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, 10:15a

Summary

Not a must-watch pitching duel, but it's worth a glance: a newly acquired Marlins arm with swing-and-miss ability faces a hulking Braves prospect whose upside (and mystery) can spice up a low-ceiling matchup. The gNERD (10.7) sits just above typical games, driven more by team flavors than ace-level pitching—Miami’s tNERD is notably boosted by youth and bargain payroll, while Atlanta’s tNERD leans on excellent fielding and an unusually large positive luck component. Ryan Gusto’s pNERD is modest because his peripherals (4.92 ERA, 9.1 K/9 but middling xFIP-) and slow pace knock him down even though he brings strikeout stuff and a fresh storyline after joining Miami at the deadline. Hurston Waldrep carries essentially no pNERD here because there isn’t a stable MLB footprint to score—he’s a high-variance rookie with electric tools and command questions, which makes his starts unpredictable and fun to watch if you like volatility. Overall: watch if you enjoy watchability driven by storylines and variance rather than classic pitcher-versus-pitcher fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15p

Summary

This is a mildly compelling game — not must-watch theater, but enough underlying mismatch and storyline to make it worth tuning into if you like offense and roster drama. The gNERD (10.23) sits just above the median of other games, driven almost entirely by a very hitter-friendly Cubs roster (Cubs tNERD 9.24) facing a Cardinals club that grades much lower as a unit (tNERD 4.44), so expect a tilt toward offense and defensive plays rather than a pitchers’ duel. Colin Rea’s pNERD (2.37) and peripherals (rough mid-4.00s ERA, modest swing-and-miss) argue he’s the least watchable arm on the bump, while Andre Pallante (pNERD 4.41) is the better option of the two but not elite; both box scores suggest league-average strikeout ability and some contact that can turn into runs. Recent write-ups note the Cardinals’ roster tinkering at the deadline and the Cubs’ stronger form, which adds a subtle narrative overlay to otherwise ordinary pitching matchups. In short: pick this game if you want potential run scoring and lineup intrigue; skip it if you crave high-strikeout, textbook pitching battles.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Not a must-watch thriller, but a quietly appealing pitching duel: Joe Boyle’s high-end stuff versus a young Logan Evans in front of a homer-hungry Seattle lineup offers enough contrast to keep your attention. The gNERD sits right around league median, so expect a tidy, pitcher-forward game rather than fireworks.

Boyle’s pNERD is the more enticing number — his elite velocity and youth give him upside even if his peripherals (xFIP-) look middling, which explains the mixed signals in the profile you see in the components. Evans grades lower on pNERD, partially because his swing-and-miss and strike-zone numbers are less impressive, though he’s been notably better at home; he’s also a rookie whose recent starts have been uneven, adding a bit of narrative risk to his outing. Seattle’s lineup still packs power (Cal Raleigh leading the homer race), so one mistake could tilt a low-scoring game into a highlight reel. Park and matchup factors lean pitcher-friendly, so the ceiling here is a low-to-moderate scoring, watchable duel rather than an all-out slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle Mariners

Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays

Logan Evans, Seattle Mariners

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Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

A decent spot for fans who like watching young arms rather than guaranteed fireworks: the A’s present a high-upside lineup and roster profile while Baltimore offers volatility and hittable pitching, so expect a game that's watchable for process and prospects more than pure drama. The gNERD (9.75) sits just under the sample mean, so this isn’t a must-watch on the slate, but the tNERD split — Oakland 8.01 vs. Baltimore 2.44 — creates an asymmetric contest where the A’s profile (athletic, cheap, and unusually “lucky” by the team metrics) should generate action and scoring chances. Jack Perkins registers pNERD = 0 in the sheet (no underlying NERD inputs), but he’s a recent call-up with encouraging Triple-A track and a tidy small-sample MLB debut/early usage that makes him worth eyeballing for swings and strikeout upside. Brandon Young’s pNERD (4.04) paints him as a league-average-to-interesting arm with some swing-and-miss tools but mixed results in earlier MLB outings and a few notable flashes (including an immaculate inning), so he’s the kind of starter who can implode or keep things competitive. Overall: watch if you like young pitchers and batter-friendly leverage; skip if you want reliably high-strikeout pitching duels.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Athletics

Baltimore Orioles

Jack Perkins, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers, 3:10p

Summary

Worth a look, but not must-see TV: the Tigers' high team NERD and Charlie Morton's veteran steadiness give this game bite, while Yusei Kikuchi's strikeout upside adds enough volatility to keep it interesting. The gNERD (9.69) sits just below the season mean and about even with today's slate, so expect a middling-but-watchable spectacle driven more by team context than an elite pitching duel. Detroit's tNERD is a big positive here (they pack offense, baserunning and competent defense), while the Angels' tNERD is dragged down largely by brutal fielding and weak run creation, so more action is likelier if Detroit gets to the longball. Kikuchi carries the higher pNERD and a clear K-ability that can shorten innings and make for punchy highlights, while Morton — a recent trade addition who pitched well in his Tigers debut after arriving at the deadline — lowers the overall ceiling but stabilizes things for Detroit. Market and previews lean Tigers, and there are no prominent injury flags, so pick this for steady offense and a veteran-versus-strikeout subplot rather than a classic pitching duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Los Angeles Angels

Detroit Tigers

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

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Boston Red Sox @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

Not must-see television, but quietly compelling: Boston’s lineup and recent form lift what is otherwise a middling gNERD, while Michael King’s return from a long IL stint supplies an unpredictable subplot. The 9.44 gNERD sits a touch below the season median, so this isn’t a top-tier “can’t miss” slate, but Boston’s 7.53 tNERD is real — the Sox bring above-average barreling, baserunning and defense that should produce action and lengthen innings. Lucas Giolito’s pNERD is modest, yet he’s been pitching like a different arm lately, stringing strong outings over his last stretch which makes him less of a soft landing for San Diego’s offense. Michael King grades out better on paper and his surface metrics (and higher pNERD) promise swing-and-miss upside, but this is his first start off the 60-day IL after a thoracic nerve issue and a rusty Triple-A tune-up that included six runs allowed — so expect volatility. In short: bettors and viewers who like competent pitching versus a lively lineup (and a comeback narrative) will find this worth tuning to; those chasing elite, high-NERD fireworks can sleep on it.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Boston Red Sox

San Diego Padres

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

This one is worth a glance if you like an up-and-coming lefty who misses bats, and not worth prioritizing if you want a classic pitchers’ duel. Cleveland’s Joey Cantillo brings the intrigue — his high pNERD is driven by a strong underlying profile (good xFIP- and strikeout rates) and recent bulk innings that suggest swing-and-miss upside. The White Sox starter, Sean Burke, is the opposite story: his profile skews hittable with command wrinkles that have shown up in recent game reports, which depresses his pNERD and the matchup’s drama. Team-wise, Cleveland’s tNERD outclasses Chicago’s—the Guardians bring solid defense and younger rosteristics while the White Sox carry negative batting and fielding marks—so the game tilts toward offense or a one-sided affair rather than a tense duel. Given a gNERD of 8.69, this contest sits below today’s average and under the historical median, so it’s middling watchability: likely entertaining if Cantillo’s swing-and-miss stuff shows up, but not a must-see on a busy slate.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Not must-watch, but not a total snoozer: this is the kind of low-key pitching matchup where a rookie arm with legitimate juice can make a quiet game worth your time while a veteran swingman keeps things steady. The NERD numbers put this near the lower half of typical games—gNERD 8.17 sits below both the historical median and today’s mean—so overall watchability is modest, driven more by pitching narrative than by explosive offenses. Probable starters are Nick Martinez for Cincinnati and rookie Braxton Ashcraft for Pittsburgh, a matchup that trades Martinez’s veteran steadiness for Ashcraft’s upside and velocity. Martinez has bounced between bullpen and rotation recently and remains capable of a surprisingly dominant outing (he flirted with a no-hitter in late June), which makes him a live arm despite a low pNERD. Ashcraft’s profile—limited MLB innings, strong fastball and a home-friendly track record—explains his higher pNERD and the main reason to tune in. If you want a game where pitching craft and a potential rookie breakout beat raw star power, this is worth a look; if you want fireworks, look elsewhere.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

This is a “worth-tuning-in-for-a-few-frames” game rather than appointment TV: Sandy Alcantara’s comeback arc supplies real narrative interest, but Erick Fedde’s bleak pNERD and recent form make the pitching matchup a bit of a drag. Alcantara’s return from Tommy John and flashes of high-velocity stuff add a storyline and some upside, though his 2025 results have been uneven. Fedde, a recent trade-deadline pickup, has struggled in Atlanta (an 0-2 start with the club and modest peripherals) and was even held without a strikeout in a recent outing, which helps explain his negative pNERD. The teams’ tNERDs tilt toward the Marlins (6.71) — younger, cheaper, a touch more fun on paper — while the Braves’ tNERD is middling (5.77), so offense could be serviceable but not explosive. With a gNERD of 8.04 this sits below the season’s median and today’s average, meaning it’s watchable mostly for Alcantara’s narrative and velocity rather than for a high-octane duel; expect innings from Alcantara and a low-ceiling outing from Fedde.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Erick Fedde, Atlanta Braves

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Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

Not a can't-miss showdown — the gNERD is below average and both teams’ tNERDs are painfully low — but there’s a modest pitching subplot that makes this worth a glance. The 7.92 gNERD sits well under the season mean and today's slate average, driven mostly by two bland team profiles (both teams' tNERD 1.94) that reflect weak offense and sloppy defense on Washington and only middling offensive upside for San Francisco. Washington’s negative batting and fielding components (especially a large negative fielding z) make for fewer exciting, high-leverage innings, while the Giants’ offense hasn’t been overpowering despite some recent wins. Brad Lord is the real reason to tune in: his pNERD (6.95) flags above-average stuff — solid velocity, a decent xFIP- and youth — meaning he can generate strikeouts and length, which boosts watchability. Carson Whisenhunt adds a rookie storyline; he’s a recent call-up with three early starts and promising command, which gives the home crowd something to watch. The park and matchup tilt toward pitching at Oracle Park, so expect a low-to-moderate run environment and a pitcher-focused viewing experience.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Washington Nationals

San Francisco Giants

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, 4:10p

Summary

Not a can't-miss slugfest, but a tidy little pitching duel to keep an eye on because Noah Cameron’s profile suggests he can make this tidy and quiet rather than sloppy and long. Cameron’s solid season (5–5, 2.68 ERA, 87.1 IP) and his high pNERD reflect a young, efficient starter who throws a relatively quick game and suppresses contact, which raises the chance of a low-drama, strikeout/light-contact outing.

Bailey Ober’s lower pNERD tracks his rougher underlying stuff and an IL stint earlier this summer, so he’s more likely to create uneven innings and a higher-scoring window if Kansas City squares him up.

Both teams’ tNERD numbers are underwhelming — Kansas City’s offense has been anemic while the Twins are middling — so the matchup’s entertainment relies on whether Cameron keeps it textbook or Ober stumbles early. The gNERD of 7.90 sits below today’s mean and the season median, so this is worth watching for pitching nerds or fans who prefer a tidy starter-versus-starter duel, but it’s not a top-tier highlight.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 5:10p

Summary

Not a high-priority watch: the gNERD is low and the matchup offers more mismatch than must-see theater — Arizona’s team upside and Eduardo Rodríguez’s steadier veteran presence keep it from being a total snooze. The 6.72 gNERD sits well below the season mean and today’s average, and that’s obvious in the components: Colorado’s tNERD is abysmal (1.50) thanks to brutal batting runs, poor fielding and baserunning, while Arizona’s 7.12 tNERD reflects a competent lineup and cleaner defense. Bradley Blalock’s pNERD (1.60) flags real concerns — his underlying stuff and chase/whiff profile have been unimpressive and he’s been hit hard in recent starts. Eduardo Rodríguez rates better (pNERD 3.22) and brings the sort of veteran track record and recent form that tends to suppress comebacks against weak offenses; Arizona’s home offense and matchup history give them the edge. In short: watch if you want to see a veteran try to shut down a flailing rookie and a thin road lineup, but don’t expect high strikeout fireworks or an evenly matched pitcher duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Bradley Blalock, Colorado Rockies

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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