MLB: What to watch on August 11, 2025

• 11 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Bold prediction meets mystery box. Garrett Crochet’s top-of-the-slate pNERD and a gNERD flirting with the historical 95th percentile make this the game to queue up, while Cristian Javier’s first start post–Tommy John is the wild card that could swing it either way.

Crochet (pNERD 11.81) brings the full appointment-viewing kit: a 96 mph fastball, an xFIP- of 64, quick tempo, and strike-throwing that fuels strikeouts without the slog. Boston’s tNERD (7.56) is built on thump, speed, and leather—above-average barrels, plus baserunning, and real defensive value—so the environment should reward balls in play and swing-and-miss alike. Javier’s pNERD is 0 only because we lack current data; the story is his return after 14 months, likely on a tight pitch count after a 77-pitch rehab cap and a wobbly 15:15 K:BB in the minors, which could expose Houston’s bullpen early. Boston’s ace form is real; Javier’s status is newsy. Add subplot spice with Alex Bregman facing his old club and Carlos Correa’s homecoming boost to Houston’s lineup.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Boston Red Sox

Houston Astros

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Zebby Matthews’ 11 pNERD (above the 95th percentile historically) runs straight into the Yankees’ barrel factory, giving this game a clean stuff-versus-bats vibe — and a gNERD 13.6 that sits near the top of today’s slate. If you like either whiffs or loud contact, you’re covered.

Matthews brings mid/upper‑90s heat and a across‑the‑board velo bump with elite strike-throwing, though his finer command and lefty-neutralizing changeup remain the tells; that’s fascinating against a lineup that has spent the year turning fastballs into confetti with elite discipline and top-end bat speed. On the other side, rookie Will Warren has stabilized, stacking five scoreless starts and allowing two or fewer in five of six while leaning on a reintroduced curveball to pair with his sweeper; he’s also fared better in the Bronx than on the road. The NERD split tracks: Yankees’ tNERD is buoyed by barrels and real bat value, while Minnesota’s lags thanks to messy baserunning/fielding — so New York supplies the entertainment floor, Matthews the ceiling. Also, Aaron Judge is back (as DH for now), and Amed Rosario just hit the IL, trimming the bench.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Will Warren, New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

If your idea of a Freeway Series is splitters and sinkers weaving through traffic, this one’s the carpool lane. A top-tier gNERD plus two high-pNERD 26-year-olds makes this one of today’s better watches. Yamamoto brings real ace traits beyond the number: his road run estimators are elite (sub-3.00 FIP and xFIP), and his arsenal has ticked up — a livelier four-seamer and a nastier, harder splitter that’s carried over from late last year. Soriano counters with upper-90s turbo-sinkers and the league’s best ground-ball rate, a style that plays to contact and quick innings but can wobble when the walks creep in. The hitch: those grounders meet an Angels defense that’s graded poorly and has struggled to convert ground-ball outs, which nudges the watchability needle toward Dodgers contact quality. Add a Dodgers lineup with thump — including Ohtani returning to Anaheim fresh off his 40th homer — and the matchup becomes premium viewing even with a mediocre Angels tNERD. In short: high-end pitching shapes, a stark defense contrast, and star power make this a gNERD near the top of today’s slate.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Angels

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Ace vs. action: Eovaldi’s buzzsaw meets Arizona’s high-activity offense, and that contrast—plus a top-tier gNERD—earns this game your remote. It’s also a tidy rerun of 2023’s Fall Classic, only with Texas bringing far more run prevention than run scoring right now. Arizona’s strong tNERD (7.22) rides real bats and positive baserunning/defense, fresh off a 13–6 bludgeoning that included a franchise-record run of nine straight two‑out hits. Texas’ tNERD lags (4.93) mostly because the lineup has sputtered—five runs across a Phillies sweep—so the watch here is Nathan Eovaldi (pNERD 8.38) carving; his underlying line fits the part (xFIP‑ 69, plus strikes/whiffs) and he just spun eight shutout innings of one‑hit ball against the Yankees. Ryne Nelson (pNERD 4.70) brings mid‑90s heat and competence (xFIP‑ 97) with occasional flair—he retired the first 16 Royals last month—which keeps Arizona live if the D‑backs’ bats pressure early. One subplot: Arizona still awaits Gold Glover Gabriel Moreno’s return from a fractured finger, so the catching/DH mix remains patchwork.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

Jeffrey Springs faces his old club, but the gNERD leans Tampa because Ryan Pepiot brings the firmer stuff and better whiffs. The A’s high tNERD keeps this plenty watchable, especially in their Sacramento stopover.

Pepiot’s pNERD (6.00) tops Springs’ (2.46) thanks to a livelier fastball and stronger underlying run prevention (xFIP- 96), and he’s handled this opponent before, including 9 Ks in a quality start the last time he saw them and a tidy career line against the A’s. Springs, a changeup artist with more modest velo, has logged a shiny ERA since May but with peripherals that run light, so the model’s caution tracks.

Team-wise, the A’s tNERD (8.09) outruns Tampa Bay’s (5.42): they’re young, low‑payroll, and—per the luck component—playing above their skis, which can be fun television. Brent Rooker supplies middle‑order thump, while the Rays counter with elite baserunning and Pepiot’s swing‑and‑miss to tilt the pitching matchup.

Net: a gNERD of 10.98 sits above today’s average, and the contrast is clean—Pepiot’s bat‑missing vs. a frisky A’s lineup in a new home, Springs’ “ex‑team” subplot, and enough volatility under Oakland’s hood to keep the channel‑surfing thumb at bay.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Tampa Bay Rays

Athletics

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Tigers fans, this is a “press play” mismatch: a high-tNERD offense with barrels, wheels, and gloves meets a Sox bullpen day fronted by Elvis Peguero’s first MLB start. If you enjoy watching a good team squeeze edges everywhere, this one’s for you.

The gNERD sits a tick below today’s average, but Detroit’s 8.34 tNERD—the top team mark on the slate—does the lifting, thanks to above-average barrel rate, baserunning, and fielding. On the mound, the pNERDs are modest: Chris Paddack’s 2.73 is more contact-manager than bat-misser, though his underlying track record (4.39 FIP with 83 K and 27 BB in 111 IP before the trade) suggests solid strike-throwing, which is why Detroit acquired him to patch the rotation after injuries. He did just get nicked by his ex-club, the Twins, in his last turn, so volatility is in play.

Chicago, thin and reshuffling, recently claimed Peguero and is using him to open what’s effectively a bullpen game, with everyday support further dented by IL moves like Chase Meidroth (thumb) and Miguel Vargas (oblique). Meanwhile, Detroit is still setting the AL Central pace, so there’s competitive juice even if the matchup skews one-way.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

Chris Paddack, Detroit Tigers

Elvis Peguero, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:10p

Summary

Bold text: Quick tempo in a tiny yard: Abbott’s breakout vs. Philly’s power/speed makes this a tidy watch — unless Walker floats one and Great American lives up to its “Small Park” nickname. Bold text: Middle-of-the-pack gNERD, but real stakes: Cincinnati leans on Abbott while the rotation heals, and the Phillies’ offense travels.

The NERD mix here tilts toward team entertainment (Phils tNERD 6.98 vs. Reds 3.63) more than arms, but Abbott lifts the pitcher side; his strikeout rate jump into the 30% range and improved run estimators have driven a legit step forward, though his home split (FIP/xFIP roughly 4.27/4.41) is less dominant than on the road. Philadelphia’s watchability comes from barrels and baserunning plus thump from Kyle Schwarber, exactly the profile that stresses a HR-friendly yard. Walker’s pNERD is light, but he works quickly and is fresh off six scoreless with zero walks; the splitter needs to live down because his FIP/xFIP vs. righties (4.75/3.90) and fly-ball tendencies can turn into souvenirs here. Great American boosts homers like few places, so any mistake may echo. With Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo on the shelf, Abbott as stopper versus a lively Phillies lineup is the hook.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Bold text: Logan Webb makes this worth your remote; Yu Darvish makes it a curiosity. If you tune in, do it for Webb’s ground-ball sorcery and cutter-aided strikeout bump while Darvish continues his careful ramp-up.

With a gNERD of 8.38, this is a mid-card watch today, lifted almost entirely by Webb’s 9.66 pNERD: a 65 xFIP- profile, brisk pace, and a broadened mix (more sweeper/cutter, thriftier changeup) that’s boosted whiffs, particularly vs lefties. Darvish sits at 2.05 pNERD after missing months with elbow inflammation; he just rejoined the rotation and has been on short leashes, including 4 innings in his latest outing, so expect the Padres’ excellent bullpen to matter early. The team-side appeal is thinner: both lineups carry low tNERDs (SD 2.99, SF 2.06) thanks to weak barrel rates and clunky baserunning, though the Giants’ glove work helps Webb’s contact-oriented plan play. Manny Machado is the one star most likely to change the math; he’s punished San Francisco plenty in this uniform. If you like tidy pitching clinics with late-inning bullpen decisions, you’ll get your fix here.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

This profiles as background baseball: low gNERD, low whiff, lots of balls in play. If you enjoy the Cardinals’ slick gloves turning contact into outs against an anemic Rockies lineup, you’ll get your fix. With a below-today-average gNERD (6.77), the watchability drag comes from light pNERD: Miles Mikolas is a pitch-to-contact righty (2025 K-BB% ~11%, xFIP ~4.7; better at home with a 3.9-ish FIP), so expect tempo and strikes more than punchouts. Reports point to Anthony Molina for Colorado, and his recent call-up came with turbulence — he was tagged for nine in his 2025 debut — which doesn’t juice pNERD either. The team-side math isn’t kinder: Colorado’s tNERD is basement-level, backed by bottom-of-MLB run creation and shaky run prevention, while St. Louis brings plus defense to convert all that contact. Injuries also sap star wattage, with Nolan Arenado still on the IL, though the Cards have been finding enough offense from the supporting cast. If you’re hunting for novelty, rookie Kyle Karros just debuted for the Rockies, but this leans more “multiscreen companion” than appointment viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Colorado Rockies

St. Louis Cardinals

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

If you like baseball that’s won with legs and leather, Milwaukee has your ticket; just don’t come expecting a whiff-fest. A middling gNERD (6.68) is propped up by the Brewers’ elite tNERD while a low-pNERD duel of Andrew Heaney vs. José Quintana keeps the K-meter modest.

Milwaukee’s watchability comes from pressure and prevention: top-tier baserunning and plus defense in the model (big positive z-scores) lift an offense that isn’t overly barrel-happy, and they’ve recently looked the part while sitting atop the majors after a 6-0 road sweep. Heaney brings a new-Pirate subplot after signing a one-year deal, but his pNERD is dragged by contact-heavy indicators (weak SwStr% and a 117 xFIP-), so you’re here for pitch tempo more than punchouts. Quintana, added by Milwaukee in March, has been steady rather than electric and just logged his ninth win, the archetype of watchable competence backing a juggernaut. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s tNERD is weighed down by negative batting and baserunning runs, though good gloves keep it from cratering.

Translation: tune in to watch the Brewers manufacture runs and squeeze extra outs; flip elsewhere if you’re chasing strikeout art.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Andrew Heaney, Pittsburgh Pirates

Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

If you’re watching this, it’s for Cade Cavalli’s comeback and the chance that raw stuff briefly outruns the spreadsheets. Otherwise, this is today’s floor gNERD, a probable change-the-channel unless the kids flash.

The model’s low pNERD duo hides the one hook: Cavalli just returned from Tommy John and, in his first big-league outing since 2022, spun 4⅓ scoreless with six strikeouts—a live-armed volatility play that can rescue a low-score game. Across the diamond, recently acquired Bailey Falter was tagged for seven in four innings in his Royals debut, but he also owns a 5–0, 2.23 career line against Washington, which keeps the matchup from being a total shrug.

The gNERD is 5.22—lowest on today’s slate—with both tNERDs weighed down by below-average batting runs and barrel rates; if there’s entertainment, it’s more likely to come from “what does Cavalli look like in start No. 2?” than from either lineup’s thunder. Washington’s shaky defense versus Kansas City’s steadier gloves nudges any contact game toward the hosts, while Falter’s command-first profile leaves little margin if he’s in the zone too often. Tune in early for Cavalli; if the fastball and curve still jump, you might stick around.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Washington Nationals

Kansas City Royals

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Bailey Falter, Kansas City Royals

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