MLB: What to watch on August 12, 2025

• 12 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago Cubs @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

This is today’s slate-topper: a gNERD 13.56 game that sits at the very top of today’s range and near the historical 95th percentile, driven by two high-tNERD clubs and one notably watchable arm. If you’re triaging screens, this one deserves a primary window.

Chicago hands the ball to Ben Brown, whose above-average velocity and strong underlying line (xFIP- 88, plus crisp pace) fuel a robust pNERD 8.36—translation: bat-missing stuff with the kind of strike-throwing that keeps innings moving. Toronto counters with José Berríos, whose pNERD lags (2.58) on middling bat-miss and a slower tempo; the entertainment tilt favors Brown on the mound. Off the ball, the Cubs’ elite tNERD (9.10) is a cocktail of real offense, barrels, baserunning, and gloves, while the Jays’ tNERD (7.07) leans on run creation and slick defense but dinged baserunning—and they may still be without George Springer after a concussion-IL stint. Toronto’s bats have been thunderous of late, which doesn’t guarantee anything but does raise the ceiling for fireworks. Add it up, and you get an analytically loud watch: Brown’s whiffs vs. a hot lineup, quality team defense on both sides, and enough star power to justify the hype.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Chicago Cubs

Toronto Blue Jays

Ben Brown, Chicago Cubs

José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Bold If you like elite stuff vs. elite vibes, this one checks both boxes: Paul Skenes’ Cy-worthy thunderbolt (league-best run prevention, NL-best FIP) meets a first-place Brewers club that runs, catches, and generally makes chaos look organized. Bold With a gNERD of 13.28—near the top of today’s slate—this is a clear “find the remote” game, even if the Pirates’ bats aren’t much help.

Skenes brings the card-carrying ace act: MLB-best 1.94 run prevention lately, a 2.41 FIP pacing the NL, and a 98.2 mph four-seamer that lives in the danger zone; he just punched out eight in six scoreless his last time out. Freddy Peralta isn’t Skenes-level in the models, but the K’s and underlying run estimators are solidly mid-3s territory this year, and he’s been especially tidy at home. Milwaukee’s tNERD heft comes from style points: top-tier steals and plus defense, even while key regulars Rhys Hoskins and Jackson Chourio sit. That contrasts nicely with Pittsburgh’s bottom-tier offense but clean glove work, making this more about whether Skenes can solo a heavyweight on the road and how far the post–Bednar bullpen can stretch.

Add in Peralta vs. Skenes officially on the card and Milwaukee riding a double-digit win streak, and the watchability writes itself, even if the scoreboard doesn’t.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

Power Baz versus plucky A’s bats is a clean watchability hook; add a reunion subplot with ex-Ray Jacob Lopez, and you’ve got a sneaky-fun, high-variance matchup. At a gNERD of 12.16—top-tier for today and near the historic 75th percentile—you’re getting whiffs, weirdness, and a real chance of late fireworks.

Baz’s above-average pNERD (6.44) rides premium heat and a nasty four-seam/curve pairing; the fastball ticked up into the mid-90s this year and plays off the bender, with underlying run prevention better than the surface stats suggest (xERA around the mid-3s). Across the diamond, Lopez brings significantly less velo but real bat-missing ability—especially vs lefties—along with fly-ball/home-run risk, which keeps every inning live; he faces his old club after a winter swap between these teams. Oakland’s watchability leans on its lineup: rookie masher Nick Kurtz plus thump from Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom, even after the club dealt pitching at the deadline. Tampa Bay offsets a light barrel rate with plus baserunning in our model, and tonight comes with extra stakes after news that Shane McClanahan is done for the season. Add in the A’s sizable “Luck” tailwind in tNERD, and this profiles as whiffs-meet-wallballs theater rather than a tidy pitcher’s duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Tampa Bay Rays

Athletics

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Bold-strikeouts meet bold-experiment: Spencer Strider’s bat-missing pedigree squares off with Clay Holmes’ starter makeover, and the gNERD puts this one near today’s top tier. If you like swing-and-miss vs. ground-ball alchemy with some lineup star wattage, this checks a lot of boxes.

The number says watch: a 12.13 gNERD sits well above today’s average, driven by a high-variance pitching contrast and the Mets’ offense carrying a top tNERD. Strider’s pNERD (7.20) is the draw; his velocity and xFIP- (90) back up the idea that post-IL he’s been trending toward his old strikeout terror, with recent reports noting improvement after a midseason return. Holmes is the curiosity play: a former Yankees closer turned Mets rotation piece who was tabbed as an Opening Day starter and is being workload-managed, which often ushers in earlier bullpen decisions. Offensively, the Mets’ barrel rate and baserunning boost their tNERD (8.08), and the presence of Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso adds name-brand swing decisions to track, even amid a seven-game skid. Atlanta counters with strong gloves and enough pop to punish mistakes. Net: tune for Strider’s whiffs, stay for how far Holmes can stretch before the chess match starts.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Detroit supplies most of the watchability: a high-octane tNERD facing a Sox club that still hasn’t named a starter. With a gNERD of 10.78—above today’s slate average and the historical median—this is solid, if not appointment viewing.

Jack Flaherty’s mid-tier pNERD (5.78) plays up because the inputs are reassuring: an xFIP- of 88 hints at run prevention sturdier than the ERA column, and he’s still shown bat-missing bursts, like nine Ks over five innings earlier this summer. The pace is crisp enough, too. Chicago hasn’t announced a starter, and their last game was an opener special with Elvis Peguero before the bullpen parade, which dovetails with a tNERD dragged down by poor batting and fielding and a run of losses (seven of eight). That, plus Chase Meidroth’s recent IL stint, doesn’t help the aesthetic. Detroit, meanwhile, sits atop the AL Central and brings watchable traits—barrels, baserunning, and competent defense—even after losing Matt Vierling to an oblique strain. If this entertains, expect the Tigers to do most of the lifting.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

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Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

If you like a clear protagonist, this is Carlos Rodón’s show—and the Yankees’ bats just did a dress rehearsal with four homers. The gNERD is a tick above today’s average, and the known-quantity-on-one-side vs. TBD-on-the-other setup nudges this into “worth your screen” territory.

At 10.52, this game sits slightly above today’s slate (avg 10.11) and near the historical median, with most of the lift coming from New York’s side: a beefy 7.52 tNERD powered by an elite barrel rate, and Rodón’s solid 5.4 pNERD against a Twins starter we don’t yet have data for. The Yankees just thumped Minnesota with four solo shots, and they’ve handled the matchup for years, so expect mistakes to be punished again. Rodón is listed to go, carrying run-prevention backed by strikeouts (147 so far) rather than smoke and mirrors, exactly what a taxed bullpen needs from a starter right now. Minnesota’s watchability drags: weak baserunning and fielding knock their tNERD down, and a TBD arm hints at an opener or scramble day. If you’re choosing selectively, pick the side with the barrels and the lefty who misses bats.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

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Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

If you like strike-throwing clinics, circle this one. George Kirby’s precision meets a thinned‑out Orioles lineup, which is why this game clears the watchability bar even without fireworks.

At 10.18, the gNERD sits a notch above today’s slate average and right near the historical median, and the driver is Kirby’s 8.27 pNERD: a 79 xFIP- with 96 mph velocity and elite strike-throwing that’s earned him early‑career walk‑rate records. He hasn’t worked especially deep lately, so there’s a nonzero chance you’ll see both pens, which keeps the pace honest. Dean Kremer’s 3.68 pNERD is more mortal—roughly league‑average xFIP-—but he’s been giving 6+ innings in four of his last five, so this shouldn’t devolve into bullpen roulette unless command wavers. On the team side, Seattle’s higher tNERD (6.08) is fueled by positive batting runs and barrels, while Baltimore’s lower mark (2.33) reflects draggy baserunning and defense—and a roster currently patched by trades and IL shuffles. Probables are Kirby vs. Kremer, so you’re signing up for command versus contact with asymmetric offenses; if the O’s ambush a heater or two, we’ve got a game, otherwise it’s Kirby dictation.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Seattle Mariners

Baltimore Orioles

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

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Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

Bold: If you prefer contact over a 14‑strikeout duel, this one plays. Bold: Janson Junk’s strike‑throwing against a glove‑first Guardians club gives this a tidy, watchable vibe.

The gNERD sits at 10.00, basically today’s median, with the appeal coming more from style than star power. Junk (pNERD 5.06) is here on command: he’s run a recent four‑outing, 20‑inning stretch without a walk, and Miami has won six of his seven road outings, the sort of profile that keeps innings moving and mistakes rare. Logan Allen (pNERD 3.49) doesn’t miss many bats this year (~6.9 K/9), but he’s trimmed runs across his last 10 starts (3.53 ERA), which fits the contact-on-the-ground vibe and keeps this close. Cleveland’s bullpen advantage is a watchability kicker; this group entered the year as a top-tier unit and backed that up last season with elite run prevention, so any early lead could get shortened quickly. Miami’s higher tNERD leans on youth and decent defense, while Cleveland’s tNERD reflects light thump but strong fielding and baserunning—more balls in play, fewer three‑true‑outcome marathons.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Miami Marlins

Cleveland Guardians

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

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Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Bold If you’re here for artistry over ace-offs, this is your watch: strong lineups and tidy gloves carry a game where the arms are the question, not the answer. Bold Boston’s bats/defense versus a patched‑up Houston staff and a just‑returned Spencer Arrighetti is the kind of volatile coin flip that rewards the curious.

At 9.93, the gNERD sits a tick below today’s average, and it’s the team side doing the lifting: Boston brings a top‑tier barrel rate with plus fielding, while Houston’s run prevention has leaned more on sequencing than thunder or baserunning. Fangraphs’ midseason look even had the Sox grading as a positive club with the glove.

Dustin May, freshly acquired by Boston, is the intrigue: the stuff still hums, but the underlying line says “proceed with caution” (road FIP/xFIP: 5.47/4.97; road K‑BB%: 8%). If the Sox actually tweak his mix as reported, there’s latent swing‑and‑miss to unlock.

Arrighetti, meanwhile, just came back from a fractured thumb and once punched out 13 Red Sox in Fenway; his 2025 home indicators (tiny sample) beat the road splits, and Houston’s on a modest home roll. Translation: ceiling high, floor rickety — which is precisely why you watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Boston Red Sox

Houston Astros

Dustin May, Boston Red Sox

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Bold: A steady mid-card watch: Philadelphia’s machine-like lineup and go-go baserunning take on Brady Singer’s new-look Reds in a ballpark that turns modest flies into souvenirs. Bold: Both starters work quickly, so one misplaced pitch could be the whole plot.

At a gNERD 9.87, this sits a hair under today’s average, with the edge coming from Philly’s superior tNERD (6.97 vs. 3.84) and second-half thump; they’ve been slugging since the break, and Kyle Schwarber just parked No. 42 in a win over Cincinnati. Ranger Suárez owns the stronger pNERD (5.35) on the back of a solid xFIP- (90); he won’t wow the whiff column but mixes sinker/change/cutter to keep damage modest and the pace brisk. Singer (pNERD 3.59, xFIP- 107) brings elite tempo and a spring-added cutter that helped early, but Great American punishes elevated contact more than most parks. Cincinnati’s offense has leaned more on legs than barrels, while Philly’s baserunning is a feature, not a bug. With Nick Lodolo on the IL, Singer’s length matters even more. Verdict: crisp pace with real late-inning homer risk; lean Phillies if you’ve only got one screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Bold: The Freeway Series sells mostly on the Dodgers’ bats and Emmet Sheehan’s post‑TJ intrigue; the Angels supply boom‑or‑bust contact and the occasional defensive adventure. If the Halos roll Tyler Anderson instead of Victor Mederos, downgrade the novelty but not the odds of barrels.

A gNERD of 9.72 sits on the fun side of today’s slate thanks to a lopsided tNERD split: Dodgers 6.35 vs Angels 2.82, i.e., elite thump vs. pop with potholes. Sheehan’s back from elbow surgery with a lively heater/slider, and his underlying run estimator lives around the mid‑3s to low‑4s xFIP with a near quarter of batters fanned, the right profile against an Angels lineup that leans on homers and also leads the league in strikeouts. The subplot on contact quality is favorable too: Anaheim’s defense graded poorly earlier this year and hasn’t fully shaken it. If it’s actually Mederos, he’s a recent recall with scant MLB track record; if it’s Anderson, expect more pitch‑to‑contact and fewer unknowns. Net: watch for Dodgers’ star bats to punish mistakes and for Sheehan’s whiffs to carry the pace; the Angels’ power keeps it volatile, which helps the channel‑surf test.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Angels

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Victor Mederos, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Bold text: It’s a 2023 World Series redux with the volume turned down: Arizona’s bats-and-baserunning meet Texas’s run-prevention habit. The watchability lives in whether the D-backs can pry open traffic while Jack Leiter keeps the lid on.

With a gNERD of 9.55, this sits near today’s middle because the pitchers grade light on sizzle. Anthony DeSclafani’s pNERD (3.6) and worse-than-average xFIP flag pitch-to-contact vibes, though he just spun 4.1 scoreless against San Diego. Jack Leiter brings real octane and some new toys — a kick-change and two-seamer — but his below-average pNERD and strike rate hint at walks; last week he managed 3.1 innings with four free passes versus the Yankees. That volatility is catnip for Arizona’s watchability profile, which leans on above-average batting value and plus baserunning in the model, while Texas’s entertainment case is cleaner defense and run prevention; the Rangers have been winning with run suppression all year and own a low team ERA. Recent storyline note: Texas’ lineup has been sputtering, which adds swing-and-miss risk to their side of the viewing ledger, but also the chance for late-inning weirdness.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers

Anthony DeSclafani, Arizona Diamondbacks

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

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San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

If you like a lefty duel with asymmetric vibes, this one fits: Robbie Ray looks All-Star sharp, while Nestor Cortes is more “new-uniform smell” than known quantity. The gNERD sits below today’s average, but Ray’s strikeout craft and the Giants’ fragile offense keep it watchable.

Ray just punched out eight over six in his last start and, on the season, is pairing a mid-3s FIP with a sub-4 xFIP and a 15–17% K-BB% at Oracle, i.e., the skills you actually trust. Cortes, newly acquired and fresh off the IL, debuted for San Diego with 4.2 innings of two-run ball and visible rust (45 strikes on 76 pitches), so pNERD = 0 here really means “data incomplete.” The team side drags: San Francisco’s bats have cratered with runners in scoring position since mid-June, and their baserunning has been a recurring tax on run expectancy. San Diego’s lineup has contact but minimal thump (low barrels), so this likely leans toward a tighter, pitcher-forward watch rather than fireworks. If Ray carves and Cortes survives the third time through, you’ll get your value; if either wobbles, the entertainment shifts from surgical to slapstick in a hurry.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Nestor Cortes, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

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Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Bold defense meets soft contact: this one’s more about leather than launch angle. With a below‑average gNERD of 7.07 on a day that runs 5.55–13.56, expect watchable crispness, not fireworks.

Kyle Freeland vs. Matthew Liberatore features two lefties with near‑league‑average underlying run prevention (xFIP- 105 and 104) and modest whiff rates, which means balls in play—and that feeds the Cardinals’ elite run prevention. St. Louis has led MLB in Outs Above Average by a wide margin this year, a tidy safety net for pitch‑to‑contact nights. The matchup context tilts further when you note Colorado’s slide—eight straight losses coming in—though St. Louis isn’t at full strength with Nolan Arenado on the IL and Lars Nootbaar day‑to‑day after a knee contusion. If you’re hunting for a Rockies hook, Brenton Doyle has hammered southpaws (.930 OPS), giving Freeland a small amount of run‑support hope via platoon damage. On pure aesthetics, Liberatore’s improved pitch mix has played better against righties this season, and Freeland works quickly enough to keep the pace snappy; taken together, it’s a glove‑first watch with a plausible upset path if contact finds grass.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Colorado Rockies

St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

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Washington Nationals @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

If you’re power-ranking today’s slate, this is the broccoli: gNERD’s floor game, thanks to below-average bat thump and modest strikeout juice on both sides. Still, there’s just enough name-brand talent (Witt Jr., Wood) to justify a cautious peek. Mitchell Parker’s pNERD (1.62) reflects a rough 123 xFIP- and a sloggy 20.2s pace with scant whiffs, while Michael Wacha’s 107 xFIP- and tepid miss rate point to competence over sizzle. The lineups don’t bail it out: both teams run negative batting-value and barrel rates; Kansas City’s gloves help, but their sizable “Luck” (+1.29) suggests the run prevention has outkicked its peripherals. The local color: the Royals grabbed the opener on long balls from Salvador Perez and Kyle Isbel, and Wacha remains the steady adult for a rotation still waiting on Cole Ragans. For actual watchables, Bobby Witt Jr. is the headliner in KC’s contact-first attack, while CJ Abrams and rookie masher James Wood give Washington its bite. Manage expectations, keep the remote handy.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Washington Nationals

Kansas City Royals

Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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