MLB: What to watch on August 13, 2025

• 13 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds, 2:10p

Summary

Triple-digit heat meets elite run suppression in a homer pinball machine; this is today’s watchability headliner. Hunter Greene’s IL return to sling 99–100 against Cristopher Sánchez’s low-70s xFIP- is the contrast that makes you find the remote.

At 15.80, the gNERD tops today’s slate and sits above the 95th percentile historically, and the arms do the heavy lifting. Greene’s 11.79 pNERD rides not just velocity but a real command jump: more zone, more first-pitch strikes, and plenty of whiffs to weaponize that fastball, which has lived around 99–100 this year. Sánchez’s 9.26 pNERD leans on a 70 xFIP-, a mid-95 sinker, and one of the game’s most effective changeups; it’s power with feel, not smoke and mirrors.

Context helps: Philadelphia’s higher tNERD (6.75) is buoyed by plus baserunning and contact quality, while Cincinnati’s 3.81 reflects a lineup light on barrels. Great American Ball Park amplifies home runs—and even strikeouts—so mistakes fly and fastballs play, a delightful combination when Greene is airing it out and Sánchez is baiting hitters into dead fish.

If you like ceiling, ride Greene’s gas; if you prefer craft, savor Sánchez’s sequencing. Either way, this one earns the click.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Top-tier gNERD and two very different kinds of intrigue: a rookie on a scoreless heater versus a veteran splitter savant, with two athletic defenses and one volatile bullpen waiting to spice the late innings. This is one of today’s more watchable offerings, with gNERD 13.93 sitting well above today’s average and in the upper quartile historically.

The pitch-side draw is clear enough. Cade Horton brings quick tempo and mid‑90s heat (pNERD 6.33) and has stacked 23-plus consecutive scoreless innings, the longest by a Cubs rookie, even if his underlying run estimators aren’t screaming ace yet. Kevin Gausman counters with strike-throwing and whiffs (pNERD 5.34, xFIP- 94) and is fresh off 7 innings of one-run ball at altitude, a tidy reminder that the splitter is still open for business. On the team side, Chicago leads today’s tNERD board (8.98) with barrels, baserunning and gloves that keep innings lively, while Toronto pairs elite run creation and leather with a positive “luck” signal that hints their skills have outpaced results. The recent script fits: the Jays just dropped 45 runs in Denver, then authored a homer-fueled escape in L.A.—and also walked a small county doing it. If you like rookie composure versus a deep lineup and the possibility of bullpen-induced drama, clear a window.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Chicago Cubs

Toronto Blue Jays

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

This rates as a “tune in for the arms, stay to see if Baltimore can scratch anything across” game. Logan Gilbert’s frontline stuff versus a resurgent Trevor Rogers is a clean, high-variance watch.

At a gNERD of 12.92, it sits well above today’s average and above the historic 75th percentile, driven by a hefty pitching component: Gilbert’s pNERD is 10.6, Rogers’ a sturdy 7.1. Gilbert brings a sub-60 xFIP- profile with mid‑90s heat and a splitter that MLB has spotlighted as one of the sport’s bat-missers, a pitch he’s leaned into even more this year. Rogers, meanwhile, has rewritten his Baltimore chapter since returning in late May, running a 1.44 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over 56-plus innings with stingy walk totals, including recent gems against Atlanta, Miami, and Colorado.

Context tilts the entertainment edge toward Seattle: the Mariners just imported real thump in Josh Naylor and the very familiar Eugenio Suárez, boosting an already solid barrel/production profile. Baltimore’s lineup, conversely, has been ice‑cold, ranking last in MLB since the start of August, which heightens the duel’s “can Rogers hold serve?” tension.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Seattle Mariners

Baltimore Orioles

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

Precision vs. decibels: Drew Rasmussen’s tidy, mid‑90s efficiency meets an A’s lineup suddenly turned up to 11 by rookie thunder Nick Kurtz. With a gNERD of 12.76—well above today’s average and near the historic 75th percentile—this one deserves a spot high on your screen.

Rasmussen shows up with staff‑ace indicators: he owns the Rays’ best 2025 FIP and is fresh off a scoreless outing, plus he made his first All‑Star team this summer, which fits his above‑average pNERD (xFIP- 83 and premium velocity). The A’s counter with J.T. Ginn, a sinker/slider righty whose underlying run‑prevention looks better than the surface; he just struck out nine over five in his last start, though our model dings his pace and strike rate. The setting adds novelty: Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park is the A’s temporary home, and it’s made for TV if only for the backdrop. The entertainment kicker is the lineup: Kurtz recently authored a four‑homer, 19‑total‑base night and remains appointment viewing, with Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers providing credible co‑stars. Our numbers say Rays baserunning vs. A’s defense could create delightful messes, and Oakland’s big positive luck flag suggests they’ve played worse than they are—just enough uncertainty to make every pitch matter.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Tampa Bay Rays

Athletics

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Go back to top of page

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

Brandon Woodruff’s comeback tour meets Mitch Keller’s stubborn competence, and the Brewers’ elite run prevention plus go-go baserunning give this one a credible “make time for it” vibe. With a gNERD of 11.78, it sits above today’s average (10.60) and brushes the historic 75th-percentile line (12.00), which tracks with the ingredients on hand.

Woodruff has looked like Woodruff again: five quality starts in six, opponents batting .139, seven frames and eight punchouts in his last turn, and a tweaked mix (hello, cutter) underpinning the whiffs even with modest velo, the very stuff pNERD loves. Keller won’t light up a Stuff+ leaderboard, but he’s been a volume-and-value arm, running up quality starts and midseason fWAR that had him surfacing in trade chatter for a reason. The team contrast is the hook: Milwaukee pairs plus defense with “press the gas” baserunning and has been piling wins, while Pittsburgh’s bats lag and their bullpen thinned after shipping out David Bednar. If you want an extra subplot, rookie sparkplug Isaac Collins has been a late-summer jolt for the Brewers.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

Power‑fastball showcase alert: Eury Pérez’s post‑TJ sizzle meets Gavin Williams’ restored heat, with Cleveland’s buzzsaw bullpen lurking if this stays tight. The 11.54 gNERD sits above today’s average and brushes the historic 75th percentile, so you’re here for arms and leverage more than pileups.

Pérez returned midseason pumping upper‑90s and missing bats, and in limited 2025 work he’s carried a FIP around the mid‑3s, the kind of profile that pairs nicely with his age/velo‑driven pNERD bump. Williams also brings mid‑to‑upper‑90s thunder and recent punchouts (eight Ks on August 1), giving this matchup two young righties who can end at‑bats without help. The team side tilts slightly toward Miami by tNERD thanks to youth, while both lineups suppress barrels, so scoring may come in short, expensive bursts rather than big innings. The Guardians’ watchability kicker is late: they pair top‑tier defense and baserunning with one of baseball’s best bullpens, which turns any one‑run lead into a heavy lift. Cleveland’s offense remains light relative to the league by wRC+, so Ramírez‑and‑friends will need to cash the few premium swings they get.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Miami Marlins

Cleveland Guardians

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Reunion-start vibes headline this one: newly minted Ranger Merrill Kelly faces his old club while Zac Gallen brings a just‑above‑average bat-missing profile to a park that rewards contact management. With a gNERD of 11.26—above today’s average and comfortably north of the historical median—this sets up as quietly watchable for the execution more than the noise.

Arizona’s strong tNERD (7.79) leans on real run creation and plus baserunning/defense, while Texas’s middling tNERD (5.06) hides good gloves and legs under negative Batting Runs—so expect clean innings punctuated by D-backs pressure. On the mound, Kelly’s better pNERD (5.26) is mostly xFIP- (90) doing the heavy lifting, and the Rangers have been a top-tier run-prevention outfit since adding him at the deadline, a move that bolstered an already league-best rotation ERA at the time. Gallen’s pNERD (4.42) is steadier than splashy—average xFIP- (98), quick pace—and he’s fresh off six sharp innings with six strikeouts in his last turn. Kelly’s first week in Texas brought a solid debut followed by a wobble against Philadelphia, so the variance knob is still on medium. If you like tight sequencing, smart baserunning, and the “ex-teammate” chess match, this is worth a window.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Texas Rangers

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

Go back to top of page

Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros, 4:10p

Summary

This one rates as a solidly watchable tilt because Hunter Brown’s All-Star-level stuff (pNERD 8.64, upper-90s heat and a sparkling xFIP-) meets a volatile Walker Buehler whose pNERD is lagging, meaning both whiffs and traffic are firmly in play. With Houston down closer Josh Hader, any late lead could wobble, nudging this toward the pleasantly chaotic.

At 11.18, the gNERD sits above today’s average and nearer the historic upper half, driven by a sharp contrast on the mound and a Boston lineup that brings barrels, speed, and gloves (tNERD 7.35) against an Astros club whose tNERD trails but whose “Luck” suggests results should tick up. Brown’s the headliner: first All-Star nod, a June coronation, and the heavy sinker/slider combo to miss bats and manage damage, matching his strong pNERD inputs. Buehler brings name value and pace, but his underlying miss and xFIP trends explain the modest pNERD; his Boston chapter began on a one-year deal and already included a May IL detour.

If you want a tidy pitching duel, root for Brown; if you prefer a little mess, Buehler plus a Hader-less Houston bullpen can oblige. Bonus storyline: Jeremy Peña’s breakout season that earned him his first All-Star nod adds some athletic flair to Houston’s side.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Boston Red Sox

Houston Astros

Walker Buehler, Boston Red Sox

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Go back to top of page

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Polish vs. potential is the draw: Joe Ryan’s command/whiff mix meets a rookie fireballer trying to hang on against a barrel-happy lineup. With a gNERD of 11.02 (above today’s average), this is a solid watch that could swing from tight duel to loud contact in a hurry.

Joe Ryan’s pNERD (6.29) and plus xFIP- (86) fit the eye test of a top-of-rotation arm; recent notes have him running a roughly low‑3s FIP, which matches the “efficient strike-thrower” label that feeds watchability. On the other side, Cam Schlittler’s pNERD is 0 only because the sample is thin; the stuff is not—he debuted hitting 100 mph and striking out seven, and early analysis shows big velo with wobbly command and a FIP near 6.0. The tNERD split amplifies the contrast: the Yankees’ elite barrel rate and positive batting runs make them appointment viewing, while the Twins’ bats lag. That’s not theory—Judge, Stanton and friends just thumped Minnesota 9–1. If you like narrative seasoning, New York’s two‑decade dominance of this matchup remains hilariously lopsided, though history won’t help Schlittler find a third pitch or Ryan miss bats tonight.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This one leans “watchable” because the Mets bring bats and baserunning while David Peterson supplies the stabler arm, leaving Atlanta to counter with gloves—and a Carlos Carrasco reunion tour at Citi Field. It’s an offense-vs.-defense contrast boosted more by tNERD than pNERD, which still plays on screen.

Peterson’s respectable pNERD (5.46) is driven by an 89 xFIP- and a brisk pace, the kind of profile that keeps innings moving and whiffs available, while Carrasco’s 1.49 pNERD (116 xFIP-, thin whiff/strike rates) makes the Mets’ lineup the better side of contact. The Mets’ 8.16 tNERD rides a thumpy barrel rate (0.102) and plus running, whereas Atlanta’s 5.89 tNERD leans on run-saving leather (15.2 fielding runs) and a not-small luck bump that hints at some regression upside. Narrative juice helps: Carrasco, traded to Atlanta on July 28 and a Met from 2021–23, draws his first career start against New York, while Peterson has been a six-inning machine since early May. The gNERD (10.50) sits a tick above both today’s average (10.60) and the historic median (10.10), a solid mid-card pick if you like contact quality deciding things more than ace-level stuff.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Carlos Carrasco, Atlanta Braves

David Peterson, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Detroit’s barrel-and-baserun machine runs into the White Sox’s Rule 5 curiosity, Shane Smith—a solidly watchable game where the action skews toward Detroit’s bats and legs.
Expect more traffic than tranquility: if the Tigers put balls in play, Chicago’s gloves could turn routine into chaos.

Detroit’s strong gNERD (10.21) rides a big tNERD edge (Tigers 8.25 vs. Sox 2.51), built on barrels (9.6%), plus baserunning (+5.1 BsR), and competent defense, versus Chicago’s bottom-tier contact quality and fielding. The Tigers starter is TBD, which tempers the pitching half (pNERD 0.00) but raises the variance. Smith (pNERD 4.66) brings a mid‑90s heater and Rule 5 backstory; his underlying line (xFIP- 106) says “serviceable,” not stopper, though his early-season debut run hinted at upside. Detroit’s identity adds spice: A.J. Hinch’s club pushes extra bases and manufactures runs without leaning on steals, a profile that pairs nicely with Chicago’s defensive leaks. For the matchup-curious, multiple outlets list Smith as the likely starter with Detroit yet to announce, so plan for White Sox contact suppression to be more about swings-and-misses in the stands than on the mound.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Shohei Ohtani’s ongoing return-to-the-mound experiment meets Kyle Hendricks’ changeup craft, making this Freeway Series game more “curious” than “classic.” The gNERD is a modest 8.19, but star-power novelty plus chaos potential keeps it worthy of a look.

With the pitching half muted (avg pNERD 3.55; Ohtani 0.00 only because our inputs lack pitcher data, Hendricks 2.10), watchability shifts to contrasts: the Dodgers’ bats (tNERD 6.28, barrels 9.8%) versus a soft-contact righty whose whiffs are scarce and underlying run prevention lags (SwStr down, xFIP- 116). The Angels’ tNERD 2.99 drags via defense (fielding -2.19), but a 10.7% barrel rate invites loud swings and odd bounces. Ohtani is still building innings after a June mound return, when he flashed triple-digit heat and a nastier sinker; the stuff looks real even if the leash stays short. The rivalry just coughed up a walk-off and even a triple play—noise, not signal, but it does nudge the weirdness quotient upward. Relative to today (average gNERD 10.60) and to historic medians, this sits mid-pack; the hook is Dodgers’ thump against Hendricks’ slim margin and a few Ohtani frames you won’t want to miss.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Angels

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

No detailed stats available

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p

Summary

Nick Pivetta is the reason to tune in; Kai-Wei Teng is the reason to stay curious. A steady whiff-maker against a freshly promoted wild card props up a middling gNERD, because the bats aren’t doing much heavy lifting.

Pivetta’s pNERD (5.45) sits a tick above today’s average, and his underlying line backs it up: a better-than-average xFIP- (92) with a K/BB profile that’s tightened the past two seasons, the very command gains San Diego paid for when they signed him over the winter. Teng, meanwhile, brings novelty points; the Giants just bumped him back, he took his first big-league win by firing five scoreless in bulk relief last week, and he’s now getting a longer look after an earlier trial balloon start.

The teams pull the gNERD down. San Diego’s low barrel rate and meh baserunning dampen fireworks, while San Francisco’s offense has scuffled even as the gloves grade out fine—fun for run prevention, less so for crooked numbers. If you’re prioritizing watches, think pitching intrigue over slugfest: Pivetta’s bat-missing vs. Oracle’s marine layer and Teng’s “is this real?” follow-up.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

Kai-Wei Teng, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Washington Nationals @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

This grades out as low‑volume art‑house baseball rather than a summer blockbuster. If you like contact, quick tempos, and the odd star turn, there’s just enough here to keep it on a second screen. With a gNERD of 5.79—well below the historical median (10.10) and today’s average (10.60)—the model isn’t smitten. Seth Lugo (pNERD 3.61) is the steadier draw, working fast and living on guile; earlier this summer he reeled off a six‑start run with a 2.95 FIP, and the Royals just doubled down with an extension to keep him around. Jake Irvin (pNERD 2.21) brings balls in play: 2025 FIP/xFIP 5.17/4.75 with an 8.2% swinging‑strike rate, a profile that stresses Washington’s already sagging defense. On the intrigue side: Bobby Witt Jr. is back after a brief back scare, and rookie James Wood’s move to the leadoff spot has perked up Washington’s at‑bats. Kansas City’s run prevention (top‑five team ERA) plus Lugo’s tempo point to a Royals‑leaning, contact‑heavy watch where Witt and Wood supply the highlights more than the box score does, with Lugo vs. Irvin confirmed as the probable matchup.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Washington Nationals

Kansas City Royals

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

This is the second‑screen special: the lowest gNERD on the slate, but there’s niche appeal if “contact management theater” is your thing. Think McGreevy’s pitch‑to‑glove approach against a winless, low‑whiff Gomber, with St. Louis’ leather doing the heavy lifting. The math explains the drag: a 4.39 gNERD sits below the 5th percentile historically, pulled down by a 1.62 average pNERD and Colorado’s rock‑bottom 1.05 tNERD. McGreevy’s profile (105 xFIP‑, soft whiff rates) asks his infield to work, and the Cardinals have actually been leading MLB in Outs Above Average—exactly the ecosystem he wants; he also just spun six scoreless against the Cubs. On the other side, Gomber’s 134 xFIP‑ and minimal bat‑missing back up that negative pNERD, and he’s supported by an offense that’s been bottom‑of‑the‑league by wRC+ with iffy defense—watchability kryptonite. One storyline to monitor: Willson Contreras exited the previous game with a right‑foot contusion after an HBP; X‑rays were clean, but his status bears watching. If you like the Cardinals’ gloves turning McGreevy’s grounders into outs—or rubbernecking whether St. Louis can rough up Gomber—peek in; otherwise, you can safely prioritize games with more bat‑to‑ball sizzle.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Colorado Rockies

St. Louis Cardinals

Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 12, 2025
• Next →
  MLB: What to watch on August 14, 2025