MLB: What to watch on August 14, 2025

• 14 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

If you’re channel-surfing for one appointment watch, this is it: a top-of-slate gNERD built on Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young-grade cruelty and Detroit’s barrel-happy lineup. Minnesota’s post-deadline, patchwork roster brings Bailey Ober and a reworked bullpen to play human shield, but the real show is Skubal versus Byron Buxton.

Skubal’s pNERD is a maxed-out 14.2, with an xFIP- of 56, high-90s velocity, and a brisk pace; he just punched out 13 Twins in seven one-hit innings the last time he saw them, and he’s carrying one of MLB’s heaviest strikeout totals. Detroit’s tNERD (7.13) is powered by a top-tier barrel rate and plus baserunning; the lone buzzkill is a bullpen that’s slipped from last year’s heights despite reinforcements. Ober’s pNERD (3.1) and a 117 xFIP-, plus a very real homer habit, make this a hazardous draw against those barrels, even if Minnesota can shorten things when the ‘pen door opens. Post-deadline, the Twins shipped out Carlos Correa and multiple leverage arms, thinning both punch and closing options, though Buxton’s return from the IL restores a bit of star wattage. With the highest gNERD on the slate and a near-95th-percentile historical mark, this profiles as a Skubal showcase with upset spice only if Detroit’s bullpen invites late drama.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

If you like clean baseball with some spice, this is your plate: elite team fun meets grizzled-ace theater. A top-quartile gNERD (12.40) and two high-tNERD clubs suggest above-average watchability, even if the pNERD duel tilts modestly toward Matthew Boyd over Max Scherzer.

Chicago’s case is straightforward: strong contact quality and one of MLB’s most aggressive, efficient baserunning profiles make them pop on screen; they’ve piled real baserunning value, and they pressure you from first pitch to last. Toronto answers with the sport’s gold-standard defense, the kind that turns 105 mph sinkers into highlight outs and erases singles at the margins, a real boost to any pitcher-day viewing. On the mound, Boyd’s pNERD edge is backed by a sturdy xFIP- and steady strike throwing that translate to fewer free passes and more pace; he’s also been going deep and missing enough bats to keep traffic light. Scherzer remains compelling television—velocity’s fine, command’s improving—and he enters on a run of quality work, but his pNERD trails Boyd’s and his pace can drift. The matchup contrast—Cubs’ run game vs. Jays’ catch-and-throw machine—plus name-brand starter gravity pushes this comfortably above today’s average watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Chicago Cubs

Toronto Blue Jays

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

Cabrera’s strikeout ceiling versus Cleveland’s gloves-and-bullpen machine is the hook; expect runs to be rationed, not poured. With a gNERD of 12.22—well above the day’s average and brushing the historic 75th percentile—this rates as a priority watch. Cabrera’s strong pNERD (7.96) is backed by an 86 xFIP- and premium velocity, and he’s arriving hot off an 8-inning, 11-K gem while leaning into a recalibrated mix (more sinkers/slider, less four-seam) that’s helped him find the zone and miss barrels. Cleveland counters with Bibee, whose pNERD (4.30) is modest but who plays to setting: a 3.21 FIP at home and a defense-plus-’pen infrastructure that shortens games even with Emmanuel Clase on paid leave. Team-wise, the Guardians’ offense has lived in the bottom quarter by wRC+ this year, while Miami’s is merely mediocre—so the entertainment leans toward whiffs, sequencing, and late leverage. If you like chess matches more than slugfests, Cabrera’s electricity versus Cleveland’s run-prevention chops is your flavor.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Miami Marlins

Cleveland Guardians

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Come for the arms. Jesús Luzardo’s high-octane, revamped repertoire (pNERD 8.82) meets Brad Lord’s late-blooming reliability (pNERD 7.03) in a pitcher-forward matchup. The duel is the draw; beyond it, Philadelphia’s stronger tNERD (6.43) and baserunning edge make this more watchable than the typical Nats tilt.

Luzardo’s profile checks out: an xFIP- of 82 and 96-ish velocity, plus a 2025 makeover that split his fastball/sweeper usage by handedness with improved zone and border command, which FanGraphs highlighted; he’s also fresh off 6 innings of one-run ball in his last start and, yes, he’s a Phillie after December’s trade. Lord, meanwhile, has gone from spring long-shot to Washington’s de facto ace, powered by a four-seamer that’s drawing real swing-and-miss and a keep-the-ball-in-the-park approach; the backstory (Home Depot to MLB) adds charm without inflating the peripherals. Team-wise, the gap is real: Washington’s low tNERD (0.76) mirrors soft contact, leaky defense, and a bullpen prone to unkind endings, while Philly’s athletic baserunning helps their otherwise steady profile play up. If you’re triaging the slate, this gNERD 11.52 sits comfortably above today’s average (10.20); prioritize the early innings before relief corps entropy and let the starters cook.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This one’s about the Mets’ entertainment engine versus two shaky pNERDs. With a gNERD of 10.13 driven by New York’s top-of-today tNERD, you’re tuning in for barrels, baserunning, and bullpen drama rather than a clinic from the starters.

Bryce Elder vs. Kodai Senga is confirmed, but the intrigue isn’t “ace-on-ace.” Senga missed time midseason with a hamstring and, since returning, has struggled to work deep; Carlos Mendoza even flagged that he’s “having a hard time feeling the strike zone,” which aligns with the pNERD ding for strike% and pace. Meanwhile, Elder’s modest bat-missing but brisk tempo boosts watchability, and he’s coming off a five-run, six-inning stumble last week. The Mets’ lineup (think Lindor/Alonso and friends) plus a high barrel rate and an above-average pen raise the ceiling for crooked numbers; the Braves counter with solid defense but a shakier bullpen, which can make late innings lively. Also: Atlanta just erased a six-run hole at Citi with a nine-run inning and a Harris grand slam, while the Mets have sagged lately—prime chaos fuel.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:05a

Summary

A contact-first curiosity more than a showcase: Seattle’s barrel-happy lineup meets Tomoyuki Sugano’s command-and-mix approach, while rookie Logan Evans tries to out-sequence a thin Orioles order. It sits on the low end of today’s watchability (gNERD 5.94), but there’s some puzzle-solving charm if you like pitchability over pure sizzle.

The gNERD sag comes from modest pNERDs (avg 2.46): Sugano’s MLB transition has meant strikes over whiffs — as a starter he’s running roughly a 9–10% K-BB% with FIP/xFIP around 5.0/4.7, the profile of a contact manager rather than a bat-misser. Seattle’s Evans is a 24-year-old sweeper merchant whose best path is sequencing, not overpowering; he debuted with five steady innings and a win and has leaned into slider-first tactics since.

Team-wise, Seattle’s tNERD (5.19) is buoyed by real offense (positive batting runs, above-average barrels), while Baltimore’s tNERD (1.77) is dragged by negative bats/defense and a battered staff; losing Félix Bautista and Zach Eflin for the season hasn’t helped the entertainment factor late. If you’re here for novelty, Sugano’s Stateside season is a draw in itself after his decorated NPB run and one-year Orioles deal; if you’re here for stuff, this probably isn’t your main screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Seattle Mariners

Baltimore Orioles

Logan Evans, Seattle Mariners

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Coors chaos meets a pitching matchup that inspires only modest confidence. It’s today’s floor gNERD, but Arizona’s bats versus Colorado’s thin roster can still be worth a channel stop.

The model says “meh” because both starters carry low pNERDs: Eduardo Rodríguez’s contact-heavy profile (xFIP- 108) just yielded five runs in 5.1 innings to these Rockies, while 24-year-old rookie Bradley Blalock (xFIP- 125) gave up five in 4.2 to these D-backs — literally this same matchup last time out. Arizona’s tNERD (6.33) is doing the heavy lifting here: above-average bats and baserunning facing a club that’s been one of the league’s roughest watches for much of the year, with defense and run prevention dragging. Coors Field’s run environment provides the usual volatility bonus — big outfield, thin air, and extra bases for balls in play — which helps offset the low pNERDs. If you’re hunting for storylines, Corbin Carroll has been running hot and just helped walk off Colorado, while Blalock’s still learning on the job. In short: low bar for pitching artistry, decent chance for noisy offense.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Bradley Blalock, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 13, 2025
• Next →
  MLB: What to watch on August 15, 2025