MLB: What to watch on August 15, 2025

• 15 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

This is the day’s gNERD headliner: deGrom’s top-tier pNERD meets Toronto’s improved bats and vacuum-cleaner defense, a high-ceiling test of stuff versus structure. If you can only watch one game, this blend of an elite arm, a sneaky-good counterpuncher, and crisp team play is the pick.

Jacob deGrom’s 9.75 pNERD does the heavy lifting here, backed by a strong xFIP- and recent evidence that he’s thriving while smartly dialing back max velocity to stay on the mound. Chris Bassitt’s pNERD is closer to average, but he’s been effective in 2025 by shaping contact and running a deep mix; early-season FIP leadership and a cutter/sinker tune-up hint at more than his whiff rates suggest. Toronto’s above-average tNERD is buoyed by a real offensive uptick — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been mashing since late June — and by a defense that rates among MLB’s best, which makes every ball in play a little less scary. Texas brings speed and gloves, but a bottom-tier run creation profile has dragged them into too many low-scoring nights, making deGrom’s margin thin. Add it up, and today’s highest gNERD makes sense: ace-caliber stuff, a crafty foil, and sharp team context on both sides.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

A top-tier gNERD tilt with pace and punch: two quick-working starters, a Mets lineup that barrels everything, and a freshly crowned franchise HR king trying to dent the apple again. If you’re picking one from today’s slate, this near-the-peak 13.15 gNERD is a worthy RSVP.

Seattle–New York rates so well because the bats and the arms both entertain. The Mets’ tNERD is juiced by elite contact quality (team barrel rate around 10%, among MLB’s best), and Pete Alonso arrives fresh off becoming the club’s all-time home-run leader, which tends to focus pitchers’ minds. On the other side, Seattle’s lineup got louder at the deadline with Josh Naylor and a reunion with Eugenio Suárez, giving Julio Rodríguez some actual lineup protection as he’s rediscovered his joy and thump. The pitching contrast is the hook: Sean Manaea’s pNERD leads today’s matchup (xFIP- 87, crisp tempo), but he’s coming off two bumpy turns totaling nine runs in 9.2 innings and a Mets rotation that rarely works deep, which keeps the bullpen on stage. Luis Castillo brings average run estimators but 95-ish heat and his own brisk rhythm; if he hits spots, Seattle’s upgraded bats make this feel very watchable. And yes, it’s near the top of today’s gNERD range.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Seattle Mariners

New York Mets

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

If you like a premium fastball set against a developing curve, this one’s your channel-flip stopper. With a gNERD in the upper tier of today’s slate and even the historic spread, it’s mostly about two arms and how long the underdog’s can hold.

Zack Wheeler’s pNERD tops the board for a reason: his 2025 profile is ruthlessly tidy—roughly one-third strikeouts, minimal walks, and both FIP and xFIP parked in the mid‑2s as a starter—so Washington’s young lineup will need contact quality, not hope. MacKenzie Gore brings legitimate bat-missing stuff and mid‑90s heat, but the tale of two halves is stark: after a sharp first half, his second-half indicators have sagged badly (xFIP ballooning north of 6 with command slippage), which tilts the matchup toward Philadelphia unless the curveball’s bite returns tonight. If it turns into a bullpen game, that’s watchable for different reasons: Washington’s gloves and relief corps have been near the basement, a combination that tends to invite late-inning entropy. As subplots go, Dylan Crews just returned and sparked a crisp win, adding some intrigue to an otherwise rebuilding offense. Factor in Philly’s penchant for squeezing extra bases, and you get a high-ceiling watch where Wheeler’s efficiency meets the Nationals’ volatility.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

Two rookies, one trustworthy bullpen, and a defense that vacuum‑seals contact—this one’s built for tightrope fun. With a gNERD of 11.46, it lands in the upper tier of today’s slate, riding pitching intrigue more than thunder bats.

Hurston Waldrep arrives with the mystery box label (pNERD 0.00), but his recall has gone swimmingly: first MLB win in Bristol’s Speedway Classic and six strikeouts over six-plus in his 2025 starting debut against Miami, which makes his early looks must-see scouting TV. Joey Cantillo counters with the more established model: as a starter he owns a 3.20 xFIP and near-30% K rate, lights-out the first time through (36% K%, 2.28 xFIP) before command/leakage shows up later, the kind of volatility that pushes managers to the ‘pen quickly. That dovetails with Cleveland’s calling card—an annually elite bullpen that’s still closing doors, with Cade Smith bagging saves this week. Atlanta’s watchability leans on the gloves more than the bats; the Braves rate among 2025’s best team defenses, which pairs neatly with a rookie starter who will invite contact when behind. If you like early swing-and-miss followed by chess-match bullpen maneuvering, clear a window.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Atlanta Braves

Cleveland Guardians

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

Yankees thunder vs. Cardinals leather is the hook here: New York’s barrel-happy lineup runs straight into St. Louis’s elite gloves, with Gil’s comeback and Pallante’s pitch-to-contact act tipping the scale. This grades above today’s average watchability because the skills actually clash.

The gNERD rides a strong Yankees tNERD built on premium contact quality and power, while the Cardinals bring run prevention and a trustworthy pen; think homers meeting Out Above Average. New York’s bats have ranked among the game’s best in slugging and have torched fastballs, which matters if Pallante leans sinker/cutter at 94–95 with more contact than whiffs. Gil is the big variable: he’s fresh off a high‑grade lat strain but just strung together a steadier outing (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 91 pitches) after a shaky return, the exact kind of “is he back?” start that makes this worth a look. On the other side, Pallante’s style plays into that Cards defense, which has led MLB in OAA for chunks of the year and props up their run prevention late. If Gil’s command holds and the Yankees lift fastballs, this tilts loud; if Pallante keeps it on the ground, expect a tighter, knife‑edge game decided by leather and leverage.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

New York Yankees

St. Louis Cardinals

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Two comeback stories, one cozy bandbox: Alcantara’s velocity and sinker are back, Giolito’s changeup bite has reappeared, and Fenway will happily test both claims. It’s a solid above‑average watch—driven more by Boston’s lively lineup and bullpen than by ace-level starting—but with real upside if “Sandy Mode” shows up.

The gNERD sits at 10.94, comfortably above today’s slate average, and the tNERD split explains why: Boston rates well for barrels, baserunning, defense, and relief help, a cocktail that tends to make games breathe after the starters exit. Alcantara’s pNERD is middling, but his stuff is loud again—upper‑90s heat and a heavy ground‑ball profile since returning from Tommy John—while recent analysis notes the command trending the right way even when run prevention lagged. Giolito’s pNERD is lower, yet he’s mixed in genuine quality; the changeup has generated whiffs during his better outings post–internal‑brace return. For plot seasoning, Alcantara has handled Boston in limited looks, and MLB lists this exact matchup on the probables board.

Net: the Sox side boosts watchability; the starters inject volatility. If Alcantara’s command matches his velocity, the game elevates; if not, Boston’s depth keeps it entertaining anyway.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Miami Marlins

Boston Red Sox

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Dodgers stars vs. Padres bullpen is the real draw here; the brands carry the watchability more than the mound matchup. With Kershaw now more craft than KO and San Diego likely leaning on Randy Vásquez or a bulk plan, expect the edge to swing late.

At a gNERD of 10.63, this sits solidly above today’s average and just over the historical median, and the tNERD split explains why: the Dodgers’ bat-first profile meets a San Diego ‘pen built to smother. Los Angeles still rolls out a dangerous top of the order headlined by Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but a thinned supporting cast has trimmed the lineup’s margin for error. Kershaw’s pNERD is modest because the whiffs have ebbed (15–16% K rate), the contact quality has crept up (xFIP ~4.4), and he’s been more hittable at home (5.19 FIP), even if the tempo remains brisk.

San Diego’s entertainment value rides on leverage: a top-end bullpen now features newly acquired fire-breather Mason Miller to join Robert Suárez and friends, precisely the kind of late-game stuff that turns stars into spectators. With Michael King on the IL and Vásquez recalled to cover, the Padres’ best route is to shorten the game and let the relief corps decide it.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Go back to top of page

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

Detroit’s watchability edge comes from barrels and brazen baserunning meeting a thin Minnesota lineup and a post-deadline, kid-heavy roster. The wildcard is a true contrast: 41-year-old curveball professor Charlie Morton versus rookie Pierson Ohl, who brings command and a changeup but almost no MLB track record.

This lands slightly above today’s average gNERD, and it’s mostly the Tigers side doing the lifting: a top-quartile team NERD fueled by loud contact and plus baserunning should pressure a Twins defense that’s graded out poorly here, while Minnesota’s best entertainment value is a bullpen that still profiles as a strength. ZiPS and local reporting pegged this group to be elite, and Jhoan Duran remains a late-inning attraction. Morton isn’t peak Cole-breaker, but his 2025 starter line (roughly 9.3 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, xFIP around 4.36) and 94-ish velo can still miss bats if the walks behave. Ohl offers the novelty: a fastball/changeup-heavy strike-thrower promoted for his microscopic walk rates and recent minor-league surge; expect efficiency over electricity and likely a shorter leash. As for recent plot: Detroit just added Morton at the deadline and keeps finding timely hits—Gleyber Torres delivered the latest winner.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

Pierson Ohl, Minnesota Twins

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Milwaukee’s baserunning-and-glove blender meets a Reds lineup short on thump, so the entertainment leans toward action on the bases and crisp defense more than a whiff-fest. If Jacob Misiorowski does get the nod in his mid‑August return, the ceiling climbs; if not, Nick Martinez’s contact‑friendly profile keeps things more grounded.

At a gNERD 10.28—slightly above today’s average and near the historic median—the watchability is driven by the Brewers’ tNERD 9.12: elite baserunning (2.48), plus defense (1.29), and a capable bullpen create constant traffic even without Jackson Chourio, who remains shelved with a hamstring strain. The club has also been hyper‑active on the bases (second in steals), which tends to keep the camera busy. Cincinnati’s 3.62 tNERD drags thanks to below‑average batting runs and barrels, and that matches the recent picture: since August 1 they’ve run a 67 wRC+ with a .271 wOBA and the fewest homers in MLB—storylines, not destiny, but relevant to the vibe. On the mound, Martinez brings roughly league‑average run prevention by FIP (~4.12) and not much bat‑missing, so balls in play should dominate. If it is Misiorowski, his 3.11 FIP and power look would add some sizzle the model can’t fully credit while he’s “TBD.”

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

This is a Cubs watch: elite baserunning and gloves trying to squeeze value out of a pitch‑to‑contact starter. Pittsburgh counters with rookie Braxton Ashcraft, so the suspense skews less “strikeout duel” and more “can Chicago create runs anyway?”

The gNERD (9.52) sits a tick below today’s average, largely because the pNERD side is light: Colin Rea’s profile leans contact over whiffs, and Ashcraft arrives with limited big‑league data. Rea throws the kitchen sink (sinker/cutter/splitter/sweeper), the sort of mix that plays better with a strong defense behind him—which the Cubs have showcased all year. Chicago’s entertainment value comes from everywhere else: they’ve treated the bases like a playground under Quintin Berry, and the baserunning edge is real by both eye and numbers.

Ashcraft is lined up to start and has mostly worked in short bursts so far; if he’s efficient for two trips, that keeps Pittsburgh in it, but the Cubs’ run‑creation via speed and contact pressure can tilt close games. A small bonus: top prospect Owen Caissie just arrived, adding some debut‑week curiosity to the lineup churn.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

Power is scarce at Oracle Park, so this one sells on stuff and speed: the Rays’ fast-and-loose baserunning and Joe Boyle’s 98 vs. Landen Roupp’s quick-working, league-average profile in a yard that strangles homers. It’s a mid-slate watch—high variance if Boyle’s command cooperates, steady if Roupp’s elbow return holds.

With a gNERD of 9.01, this sits a tick below today’s average, but the ingredients are there. Roupp’s above-average pNERD (5.74) is built on pace and competence (xFIP- ~99), and he’s expected to come off the IL for this turn, adding a small storyline bump. Boyle’s pNERD (4.18) is a cocktail of elite velocity and walk risk; the ceiling is real—he spun five no-hit innings with seven Ks earlier this year—so you’re tuning in partly for the dice roll. Team-wise, Tampa Bay’s tNERD edge (6.28 vs. 1.81) comes from speed and a capable pen, which plays in a park where big flies go to die; Oracle owns MLB’s worst HR factor. If you need a bat-driven hook, Junior Caminero’s been thumping since the break, though Oracle will test that.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Tampa Bay Rays

San Francisco Giants

Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

Go back to top of page

Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

If you like contrast, this one delivers: Framber Valdez’s bowling-ball sinker and elite contact control meet a rookie still assembling the toolkit. It’s watchable on the mound more than in the lineups. Valdez enters with a strong pNERD and an xFIP- of 73, the profile of a run suppressor, and his sinker/curve mix continues to vacuum up grounders even as the league chases air; Houston’s starters still lean into worm-killing when he’s involved. Brandon Young’s pNERD is modest, backed by a 109 xFIP-, thin whiffs, and merely average velocity—plus the usual rookie volatility for a post–Tommy John call-up who debuted in April. The team context tilts Houston: their tNERD is carried by a quality defense and season-long bullpen value, though late innings just got dicier with Josh Hader on the IL and Bryan Abreu sliding into the ninth. With gNERD at 8.98—below today’s average—it’s not appointment viewing, but Valdez’s craft and the possibility that Baltimore reaches a shaky Astro bullpen keep the channel-flip thumb holstered a while longer.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

All-Star lefty Yusei Kikuchi in a hitter-forward Sacramento sandbox against a live-armed rookie with a sweeper—this is ‘stuff vs. stadium’ theater. It’s a mid-slate gNERD 8.95, but the A’s tNERD and ballpark juice the watchability.

Kikuchi’s pNERD is middle-ish, yet he’s been the Angels’ lone 2025 All-Star and carried a one-hit shutout into the 8th the last time he faced the A’s; his mid‑90s fastball and near‑league‑average xFIP‑ (97) fit the “competent lefty vs. launchpad” brief. The counter is Oakland rookie Jack Perkins, who brings 96 mph heat and a whiffy sweeper; he just logged six strong frames for his first MLB win. The venue matters: Sutter Health Park has played far more hitter-friendly than expected and the A’s are staging their interim stay here, which tends to turn contact into entertainment.

NERD-wise, the spread is stark: A’s tNERD (7.12) > Angels tNERD (1.17), buoyed by youth/payroll quirks and a sizable positive Luck component that hints they’ve underperformed skills—good TV, if not prophecy. Meanwhile, the Angels arrive with fresh city-bragging rights after a 6–0 season sweep of the Dodgers, a storyline without implying momentum.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Los Angeles Angels

Athletics

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Jack Perkins, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, 5:10p

Summary

This grades out as a fringe watch, but Noah Cameron’s quick tempo and rookie competence give it a pulse. If you’re surfing, drop in for Cameron vs. a contact-first White Sox lineup and see whether Aaron Civale’s recent uptick is real.

The gNERD sits at 6.76, near the low end of today’s slate and below the historical median, and that tracks: team bats and gloves are mostly below-average, so the draw is on the mound. Cameron’s the brighter side of the matchup with a 5.72 pNERD, near-league-average run estimators (xFIP- 98), a brisk 16.7s pace, and recent notes of a cutter that’s bailed him out of jams; he’s also been one of the better rookies by value, even if the awards noise hasn’t caught up. Civale’s pNERD is 1.08 for a reason (xFIP- 116, muted whiffs), but he just spun 6.1 one-hit innings in his last gem and has a long-ago track record of handling KC; Chicago acquired him in June to stabilize a thin rotation. The side story: Bobby Witt Jr. is back from a brief back scare, which nudges the Royals’ watchability up a tick.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Royals

Aaron Civale, Chicago White Sox

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

This is today’s floor gNERD, but it still offers a ceiling of chaos: think barrels at altitude more than a duel. Arizona’s above-average offense meets Colorado’s tNERD sinkhole and a hittable starter, which is a recipe for runs, not nuance.

gNERD 6.23 sits at the bottom of today’s slate largely because the Rockies grade poorly across hitting, defense, baserunning, and bullpen, while Arizona’s bats, speed, and glove work are solid but not enough to carry the whole show. Pfaadt’s middling pNERD hides some texture: as a 2025 starter he’s run a 4.31 FIP/3.97 xFIP, but on the road the damage jumps (6.03 FIP, 2.38 HR/9), a risky combo in Denver. On the other side, Gordon’s pNERD is low and the matchup is rough; the D-backs just hung 10 earned on him over 4.2 IP, and Arizona has homered in 12 straight and leads MLB in HR since Aug. 2. Gordon did flash competence with a six-inning shutout three weeks ago, so there’s variance, but the likeliest entertainment is Arizona’s lineup taking big swings while both bullpens wobble late.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 14, 2025
• Next →
  MLB: What to watch on August 16, 2025