MLB: What to watch on August 18, 2025

• 18 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Top of the slate alert: this gNERD 14.55 rivalry tilt is driven by two high-tNERD clubs that catch it, run it, and should keep the ball in play just enough to stay tense throughout. Add a lively rookie (Cade Horton) versus a bat-missing metronome (Freddy Peralta), and you’ve got appointment TV, not background noise.

Peralta’s watchability comes from skills, not smoke: he’s running a 25.5% K rate with a 3.66 FIP and tidy 1.08 WHIP profile, and the four-seamer/secondary tweaks undergirding that (flatter approach angle, firmer velo around 95 mph with xERA near the mid‑3s) remain very real. Horton’s pNERD edge (6.51) reflects the novelty: mid‑90s heat, a slider scouts loved, and he’s arriving off a career‑best 8‑K start; as a 2025 call‑up, there’s discovery value every inning.

The tNERD heft is the sell: both defenses grade among the league’s best, and Chicago in particular has been hyper‑efficient on the bases, a trait Milwaukee also leverages. That dovetails with Peralta’s bat-missing profile and Horton’s quick tempo to keep pace crisp. Context helps: Milwaukee rolls in with a top record and a sizable division cushion, while the Cubs’ lineup has enough thump to test mistakes.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

Two top-10 tNERD clubs with very different thrills—Milwaukee’s speed/defense vs. Chicago’s barrels—make this one of the slate’s best watches. And if the probables hold (Freddy Peralta vs. Cade Horton), it’s NL wins leader vs. a rookie on a post-break heater, which is exactly the kind of contrast NERD was built to find.

With a 14.01 gNERD, this sits near the top of today’s range and around the 90th percentile historically. Milwaukee’s tNERD is the day’s max, powered by elite baserunning (+2.45) and gloves (+1.32); Chicago counters with hard contact (barrel z +1.12), speed (+1.46), and slick defense (+1.32), though the Cubs’ bullpen trails the Brewers’ by the components. The likely Peralta–Horton matchup sweetens it: Peralta brings K rate and run prevention, but his away FIP sits higher (4.79) than at home (2.77); Horton’s home FIP is a sturdy 3.49 and his August FIP is 2.26.

Storylines help: Milwaukee’s franchise-record 14-game streak just snapped, yet the Brewers still lead the division; the Cubs arrive with Horton rolling (career-high 8 K in his last start). Expect pace, defense, and a few loud swings to decide it, with the bullpen gap nudging late-inning edge to Milwaukee.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

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Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

High-end gNERD, higher-end foil: Logan Gilbert’s ace-level 62 xFIP- and top-5 pNERD meet a Phillies lineup that just slogged through a light week and a rotation suddenly thinner without Zack Wheeler. Ranger Suárez is the swing piece—contact-first and coming off a six-run stumble—so this could hinge on how many barrels Seattle finds early.

With a 13.65 gNERD, this sits near the top of today’s slate and above the historical 75th percentile, and the reason is mostly Gilbert: premium velo, strikes, and bat-missing (big positive components in pNERD) against a park and opponent that punish mistakes. Suárez’s profile is more median—an xFIP- around 93 with below-average whiffs—so Philadelphia’s watchability leans on its strong baserunning and clean defense to create action while limiting the homer damage Seattle’s barrel rate threatens. The Mariners’ bats grade well by Batting Runs, but their fielding and bullpen components pull back the shine, so the best viewing comes if Gilbert works deep and the Phillies force him into the stretch. Probables are set: Gilbert vs. Suárez to open the series, with Suárez’s last outing a reminder that his command has to be fine.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Seattle Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Paul Skenes’ turbo heater versus a deep, AL‑East‑leading lineup is the kind of collision that makes a high‑gNERD (13.12) feel deserved. If you want “must-watch” distilled: Skenes’ pNERD 11.16 star power vs. Kevin Gausman’s steadiness and Toronto’s superior tNERD.

Skenes brings big-velo theater (sits ~98 mph) with top-tier underlying run prevention and a fresh NL Pitcher of the Month plaque, though he’s looking to rebound after allowing four in four last time out. Gausman, the splitter sommelier with a solid pNERD (5.09), is coming off seven sturdy frames against the Cubs in which the only damage was a pair of solo shots. The team contrast is stark and watchable: Toronto’s offense and standings position outclass Pittsburgh’s; the Jays sit atop the AL East while the Pirates’ bats lag in average and power. Layer in a thinned Bucs bullpen after dealing All‑Star closer David Bednar, and the “can Skenes carry it deep?” tension sharpens.

In NERD terms, the spike comes from Skenes’ elite xFIP/FIP profile paired with Toronto’s stronger tNERD components; the downside risk is Pittsburgh’s weak offense dragging the middle innings. If you’re triaging your screen time, this is a stuff-vs.-lineup litmus test worth prioritizing.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Toronto Blue Jays

Pittsburgh Pirates

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Come for Eury Pérez’s post‑TJ gas and new sweeper; stay to see whether the Cardinals’ vacuum‑cleaner defense hoovers up the rest. With a gNERD of 11.55—comfortably above today’s average—this is a solid watch if you like premium velocity versus premium gloves. Pérez returned in June sitting upper‑90s and flashing a tweaked breaking ball; the stuff is back even if command (and a deliberate pace) are still settling.

Matthew Liberatore’s pNERD trails, but he’s been a viable mix‑and‑match lefty in 2025, with indicators pointing to “solid, not flashy”: think mid‑3s FIP, a plus changeup doing the heavy lifting, and a cutter that’s still a hazard.

Team context tilts watchability. Miami’s lineup has run a bit below league average by wRC+ and just lost middle‑of‑the‑order bat Kyle Stowers to the IL, though rookie Jakob Marsee has been an instant jolt. St. Louis counters with best‑in‑class run prevention—leading MLB in Outs Above Average earlier this year—which pairs nicely with Liberatore’s contact profile and a steadier bullpen than Miami’s unsettled late‑inning mix.

In short: Pérez’s electricity (pNERD 6.83) versus the Cards’ elite mitt work (tNERD lift) is the hook; if Liberatore (pNERD 4.39) keeps it in the yard, the late innings should be tense enough to justify the click.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

A top-third gNERD (11.52) meets real stakes: first-place Detroit and its upgraded bullpen test a just-returned Spencer Arrighetti while Houston figures out the ninth without Josh Hader. If you like contrast—Jack Flaherty’s solid underlying line vs. a volatile, rusty counterpart—this one plays.

The NERD math likes the watchability here because Detroit’s bats (strong barrel rate, plus baserunning) and a lively tNERD (7.08) meet an Astros club with bullpen strength on paper but no Hader, who’s shelved with a shoulder capsule strain and shut down from throwing for three weeks; that likely pushes high‑leverage work to Bryan Abreu and friends. Detroit also fortified late innings at the deadline—Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero among the adds—and they’ve actually paid off lately (Finnegan/Vest combining for 6 saves since 7/31). Flaherty’s pNERD is above today’s average, backed by an xFIP- of 88, though his most recent turn was bumpy (5 ER in 4.1 IP vs. CHW); the stuff and whiffs remain, but the long ball has crept in. Arrighetti is the novelty: second start back from a fractured thumb, one hit allowed in five innings but five walks—intrigue via command rather than velocity. Bonus subplot: Detroit’s atop the Central, so every late inning matters; Houston’s star Yordan Álvarez is only just starting a rehab stint.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Velocity meets volatility in the desert: Gavin Williams’ heat and whiffs face an Arizona lineup that can punish mistakes, while the D-backs counter with the 2025 version of Zac Gallen that’s been more name than nuisance. Cleveland’s usual late-inning advantage is thinner without Emmanuel Clase, and Arizona’s battered bullpen invites chaos—good news for watchability, less so for ulcers.

At a gNERD of 11.14, this sits above today’s average and between the historic median and 75th percentile, which fits the “intriguing but imperfect” brief. Williams’ profile is fun and fraught: mid‑90s velocity with above‑average whiff rate, undercut by a double‑digit walk rate; on the road his FIP jumps to 5.63 and righties have done the bulk of the damage—an awkward matchup against Ketel Marte/Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and friends. Arizona is expected to start Gallen, whose results have sagged; the strikeouts are fine, but a near‑5 FIP and elevated home HR/9 hint at more traffic than thunder.

Team-wise, it’s strength-on-strength: Cleveland’s glove-and-relief combo has graded among the league’s best by FIP even if the ninth is now by committee, while Arizona brings a top‑five offense by runs and top‑three home run tally—but a bullpen thinned by injuries to Kevin Ginkel and A.J. Puk.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Cleveland Guardians

Arizona Diamondbacks

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

A resurgent Trevor Rogers against a freshly relocated Dustin May at Fenway is the hook: one arm with run-suppressing signals vs. a high-velo reclamation who just shoved in Houston. With a gNERD of 10.71, it’s a solid mid-card choice elevated by storylines.

Rogers carries the pitching side of the watchability here (pNERD 7.4), with starter splits that sing: ~3.6 xFIP, 16–17% K-BB%, and a recent run of quality starts that’s turned his season from question mark to feature attraction. He even carved Boston earlier this year, a useful bit of context for this matchup. Meanwhile, May (pNERD 3.1) brings pure stuff and a fresh narrative; after a rocky Red Sox debut, he blew through the Astros for six scoreless with eight punchouts, hinting there’s still upside if the strike-throwing holds. Team-wise, Boston’s high tNERD (8.59) is fueled by plus defense, baserunning and a sturdy bullpen, with Alex Bregman’s bat adding watchability—and he’s already leaving marks in big spots. Baltimore’s low tNERD (2.25) reflects shakier fielding and relief depth, and they’re banged up (Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser on the IL), though Adley Rutschman is back in the mix. Probables align as listed: Rogers vs. May.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Dustin May, Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Ace-vs-chaos at altitude: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s bat-missing profile (xFIP- 76) meets Coors Field and Kyle Freeland, fresh off 7 1/3 scoreless, in a matchup where precision and park effects tug in opposite directions. The Dodgers just swept San Diego, and Shohei Ohtani’s silly .781 career slugging at Coors lurks as bonus entertainment.

The gNERD sits at 9.53—shy of today’s average (10.68) but right around the historic median (10.10)—because elite pitching interest is balanced by a lopsided team split. The Dodgers’ tNERD (7.49) rides plus bats (Barrel% +1.12 z) and a strong bullpen (+1.16), while the Rockies’ tNERD (-0.36) is dragged down by weak offense, defense, and relief work. Yamamoto’s pNERD (8.26) is the headliner; even after a rare clunker vs. the Angels and some schedule shuffling for extra rest, he’s been the rotation constant. Freeland’s pNERD (3.67) leans on strikes more than misses (xFIP- 106), and Coors punishes that profile. Recent headlines say L.A. arrives hot and Colorado arrives buoyant, but the model prefers skill over vibes—which is why this grades as “watchable,” not can’t-miss.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Robbie Ray’s bounce‑back year meets San Diego’s souped‑up bullpen, turning a mid‑tier gNERD into a late‑inning watch. Nestor Cortes is fresh off the IL and a deadline trade, so volatility is on the menu—and the Padres now have Mason Miller and friends to smother it if needed.

At gNERD 8.42 (below today’s average 10.68), the appeal is pitcher‑ and bullpen‑driven, not bats. Ray has pitched like an All‑Star, with a recent 3.69 FIP and sustained whiffs; he was selected to the Midsummer Classic last month. Cortes, acquired July 31 after a flexor‑strain layoff, has offered more questions than answers so far, with shaky run‑independent numbers in a tiny sample; the leash figures to be short.

That aligns with the NERD components: San Diego’s bullpen is the show (big positive tNERD bullpen piece), now reinforced by 101‑mph All‑Star Mason Miller to pair with Robert Suárez/Jason Adam, and it’s graded among the game’s best in leverage spots. Meanwhile, the Giants’ tNERD drags thanks to light barrels and weak baserunning, making Ray’s run prevention the primary draw. If you’re choosing between fireworks and chess, this one leans chess—with the Padres’ late‑game cavalry deciding the endgame.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

Nestor Cortes, San Diego Padres

No detailed stats available

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Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A watchability snack, not a feast: gNERD 8.0 puts this below today’s average, but Wacha’s contact craft vs. Leiter’s premium velocity has just enough sizzle to keep you around for seconds. With Adolis García on the IL and two low-octane offenses, expect every run to be wrung out of the margins.

The profiles are tidy: Michael Wacha’s run prevention has portable backbone (3.74 FIP, low walks), and Kauffman’s big gaps fit his contact-management approach like a bespoke suit. Jack Leiter brings 97–98 and a revamped two-seamer/change, but his 4.40 FIP says the command-and-contact game is still a work in progress.

This tilts “pitching watch” because both lineups have been more beige than bold: Texas is hitting .232 and leans on run prevention; Kansas City’s staff is excellent while the bats lag (26th in OPS, power light). That dynamic, plus a solid Royals pen and a park that suppresses big flies, nudges entertainment toward tense, ball-in-play innings rather than fireworks.

NERD-wise, the modest pNERDs (Leiter 2.75, Wacha 3.69) match the eye test: one veteran winning with execution, one live arm still finding the edges. If you like sequencing, changeups and outfield routes, this lands in the “worthy background game” tier—with a small side of KC “luck” to monitor.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Texas Rangers

Kansas City Royals

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Brady Singer is the adult supervision here; the rest is watchable chaos. The Angels whiff a ton, field poorly and might run a bullpen day behind spot‑starter Victor Mederos, which is how a modest gNERD can still produce entertainment.

At 6.51, this sits near the lower end of today’s slate, dragged down by weak team components: the Angels’ defense grades near the bottom by multiple systems and their bullpen has bled runs, while the Reds’ bats have slumped since the deadline despite solid baserunning. Singer’s pNERD is middling, but he’s fresh off six scoreless with five Ks, and his quick pace helps the TV product. Opposite him, Mederos brings a thin big‑league track record and uncertain length, a recipe for traffic. The Angels counter with power and strikeouts—fun when contact is made, volatile when it isn’t—and Mike Trout has recently rejoined the lineup as a DH, adding name‑brand swing decisions if not guaranteed thump. If you’re tuning in, it’s for Singer’s efficiency, Elly and friends testing the run game, and the late‑inning potential for Angel chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Angels

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Victor Mederos, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

If you’re tuning in, you’re here for the Strider check-in: Atlanta’s ace is rebuilding post‑UCL surgery and trying to steady things after a career‑high‑tying 8‑run hiccup, now with Ronald Acuña Jr. freshly back to juice the lineup. Otherwise, this sits at the bottom of today’s gNERD range because Chicago brings a light bat and a volatile spot-starter profile.

The 6.08 gNERD reflects modest tNERDs (ATL 4.63, CHW 2.86) and a lopsided pNERD split: Strider’s 6.82 keeps this watchable, powered by a still‑good xFIP‑ (93) and velocity, even if his last outing went sideways; he also notched his 500th K earlier this year in his return. On the other side, Yoendrys Gómez’s −2.15 pNERD (xFIP‑ 142) drags the average, though he just earned another turn after a five‑inning, seven‑strikeout first MLB start against Detroit. Team‑wise, Atlanta’s decent barrels and defense contrast with Chicago’s bottom‑tier run creation and recent skid, which included a sweep in Kansas City.

Verdict: a “Strider and stars” curiosity. If his slider/fastball mix looks crisp early, stick around; if not, this profiles closer to a background game than an all‑evening commitment.

(A model from OpenAI generated this text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Chicago White Sox

Atlanta Braves

Yoendrys Gómez, Chicago White Sox

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

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