MLB: What to watch on August 19, 2025

• 19 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Two aces, little margin: Tarik Skubal (reigning AL Cy; ~30% K–BB, ~2.35 xFIP) faces Michigan-born Hunter Brown (top‑10 WHIP) in the day’s highest gNERD tilt.
Add Detroit’s thump and Houston’s Hader‑less bullpen, and any crack after the starters becomes theater.

Skubal’s pNERD 13.80 matches the eye test: elite strikeout and walk rates with sub‑0.90 WHIP and best‑in‑class run prevention by fielding‑independent metrics. Brown’s pNERD 8.33 is no slouch either, pairing ~2.9–3.1 xFIP with a ~22% K‑BB%, and he’s on a mini‑heater (four runs in his last 19 innings) while returning to his home state. The gNERD 17.60 sits atop today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically, thanks to two premium pNERDs plus a style contrast: Detroit’s higher‑octane tNERD (8.16) is buoyed by power‑barrel bats and competent defense, while Houston’s tNERD (4.89) leans more on a sturdy bullpen. Recent context nudges the intrigue—Tigers just administered a 10–0 drubbing as Houston’s offense hit a skid (three shutouts in four), and Yordan Álvarez is only just starting a rehab assignment. Meanwhile, the Astros’ late‑inning plan is thinner with Josh Hader on the IL. None of that guarantees outcomes, but it sharpens the edges of an already must‑watch matchup.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

Peak-woodruff versus IL-return Taillon, with two high-tNERD clubs that run, field, and generally make baseball look brisk—this gNERD 16.25 clash sits near the top of today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically. If you can spare one game for stakes and style, this is it.

Milwaukee’s watchability comes from speed and leather (elite baserunning and plus fielding in tNERD), backed by a steadier bullpen than Chicago’s, while the Cubs counter with barrels and defense of their own; that symmetry raises the floor on long, competitive at-bats. On the mound, pNERD tilts toward Brandon Woodruff (8.31), whose xFIP- is an excellent 74 and whose club has won all seven of his starts since returning, a tidy summary of miss rates and weak contact rather than empty ERA sheen. Jameson Taillon (4.44) returns from a calf strain for his first big-league start since late June; he looked sharp in rehab (5.1 scoreless at Triple-A) and works quickly, but his xFIP- (105) and contact profile are the risk against Milwaukee’s on-base-and-go approach. With the Brewers up big in the Central and the doubleheader reshuffle confirming Woodruff–Taillon in this pairing, the narrative juice matches the numbers.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Chaos vs. clockwork: Milwaukee’s pressure-cooker baserunning and defense crash into Matthew Boyd’s All-Star metronome. At a gNERD 14.89, this sits near the top of today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically, and it comes freshly remixed by a rain-created doubleheader reshuffle.

Milwaukee’s high tNERD is earned the old-fashioned way: they run, catch, and squeeze extra value from the margins, a formula that’s powered a league-leading record and a midseason tear built on elite defense and aggressiveness. Chicago answers with an upper-tier tNERD of its own, pairing solid run prevention with legitimate power (170 homers and a +110 run differential), which plays well with Boyd’s contact management.

On the mound, the pNERD average isn’t the hook; it’s the contrast. Boyd has pitched like a stabilizer—an All-Star with run estimators to match (FIP around the low-3s)—and he even logged his 1,000th career strikeout against these Brewers, a neat subplot for a divisional tilt. Opposite him, the Brewers tabbed Chad Patrick as their 27th man for the twinbill; his pNERD says “near league-average stuff,” but Milwaukee’s defense and baserunning can turn contact into outs and singles into stress.

If you like clean pitching shapes colliding with weaponized chaos, this is your window.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

If you like loud contact and louder fastballs, this rates high: a gNERD 12.85 lands in the day’s upper tier, marrying the Yankees’ barrel-happy lineup with Shane Baz’s electricity. It’s Rodón’s steady miss-making versus Baz’s big velo, while Tampa Bay’s legs and bullpen try to paper over some shaky gloves.

New York’s tNERD pops because of real thump (elite barrel rate and strong batting runs), and Rodón brings substance beneath the surface: mid-3s xFIP with a healthy K-BB% and excellent splits against righties, a good fit against a righty-leaning Rays order. Tampa Bay’s tNERD leans on speed and relief depth; they can manufacture chaos, with rookie burner Chandler Simpson already rewriting the club’s rookie steals marks and swiping them in bunches. Baz’s pNERD leads this matchup thanks to the stuff; his 2025 xFIP sits around 3.9 despite a rougher run-prevention line, though he’s far shakier the third time through, inviting a quick Kevin Cash hook. If you want extra juice, Junior Caminero’s middle-order thunder has been very real lately. One watchability caveat: Aaron Judge has been DH-only with an elbow issue, and Giancarlo Stanton’s lower-body soreness has been a day-to-day variable.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

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Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Cristopher Sánchez has gone from breakout to backbone, and with Zack Wheeler sidelined, his turn suddenly matters even more for Philly. Seattle counters with Bryce Miller’s first start since an elbow layoff, so this is metronome lefty versus mystery box.

At gNERD 11.67, this sits comfortably above today’s average, driven by Sánchez’s big pNERD (9.14) built on run-independent goodness — a 71 xFIP- with firm velocity and strikes — plus a Phillies club that adds value on the bases and prevents runs (tNERD 7.48). Miller’s pNERD (1.34) flags risk: a 120 xFIP-, little swing-and-miss, and a slower pace against a deep lineup is a precarious recipe. Seattle’s bats do keep this watchable: they’ve been legitimately mashing, with Cal Raleigh barreling everything and the team profiling as top-five in run creation this year, which is exactly the kind of test that makes a Sánchez start hum.

Layer on the subplot that Sánchez has graded as a top-10 results arm — FanGraphs even floated “might be an ace” — while MLB notes he’s led the league in run suppression since June, and you get a tidy, high-floor showcase with real stakes for October.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

If you like velocity and volatility, this one delivers: Edward Cabrera’s power mix (upper-90s heater plus that headline-grabbing 96 mph change) against a contact-leaning rookie makes this a comfortably above-average watch for the slate. Both lineups are dinged—Miami is missing All-Star masher Kyle Stowers and St. Louis just shelved table‑setter Brendan Donovan—so the mound duel should drive the entertainment.

gNERD sits at 11.57, above today’s average, and the split explains it: Cabrera’s strong pNERD (7.89) and bat-missing arsenal are the hooks, while Michael McGreevy’s lower pNERD (3.52) profiles as pitch-to-contact with tidy walks but few whiffs. That contrast pairs neatly with team context: the Cardinals bring plus defense and a sturdy pen (their tNERD component strengths), while Miami’s relief corps has leaked runs lately (6.07 ERA over the last 10 games).

Storylines add texture. Cabrera’s season long arc—from spring blister to sustained stuff—is intact, and he’s slated opposite McGreevy per the probables. Meanwhile, with Stowers out, Miami leans on kids like Jakob Marsee; St. Louis is down both Donovan and Nolan Arenado (shoulder IL), nudging this toward a pitcher-forward watch with swing-and-miss on one side and gloves on the other.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

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Athletics @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Two hot hands and two retooled bullpens collide: Jacob Lopez brings 24 straight scoreless innings into a meeting with Joe Ryan, who has held opponents to two or fewer runs in eight of his last nine. Post‑deadline, the Twins shipped Jhoan Duran to Philly and the A’s dealt Mason Miller to San Diego, so any lead feels provisional.

With a gNERD of 11.42, this sits comfortably above both today’s average and the historic median, and the pitchers are the draw: Ryan’s tidy home xFIP (3.36) and elite K‑BB% against righties (29%) pair with Lopez’s recent mid‑3s to low‑4s xFIP run to promise crisp innings before the managers start dialing for new ninth‑inning answers. Minnesota’s offense has lagged this year by the skill‑based measures while Oakland’s bats grade closer to league average, a small edge that’s countered by the Twins’ generally stronger relief corps pre‑selloff; in practice, the late frames are the variable. Buxton’s return adds electricity (and speed) to a lineup that needed it.

If you like contrast, Lopez’s low‑velo, whiff‑heavy fly‑ball profile against Ryan’s attack‑the‑zone efficiency is clean, modern baseball theater; if you like chaos, the departed closers mean extra incentive to watch the last nine outs.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Athletics

Minnesota Twins

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Nick Pivetta’s strikeout-friendly profile plus San Diego’s late-inning sledgehammer makes this a “can the Giants dodge the bullpen?” viewing test. Kai‑Wei Teng is the variable: brief flashes, thin data, and a quick rematch after San Diego tagged him last week.

The gNERD is a touch above middling, but watchability rises because Pivetta has pitched like a mid-rotation metronome (FIP/xFIP roughly 3.16/3.57 with a 9.7 K/9), and he’s been especially stingy at Petco, including seven scoreless in his last home start. Teng brings uncertainty: he debuted as a starter earlier this month, then fired five scoreless in long relief before getting hit by these Padres; the pNERD zero mirrors that tiny sample. San Diego’s edge is the back end: Mason Miller setting up MLB saves leader Robert Suárez is exactly the kind of leverage parade that punishes thin lineups. That matters against a Giants offense light on barrels and baserunning (their tNERD inputs agree), while San Diego has largely controlled the season series and just felt the Dodgers’ squeeze—stakes you can feel. In short: if Teng surprises and the Giants reach the softer innings, this stays close; if not, Petco’s finishers will script the ending.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Kai-Wei Teng, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

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Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Arizona’s top-5 offense meets Cleveland’s bullpen buzzsaw; if the Guardians grab a mid-game lead, this tilts fast. With both starters carrying modest pNERDs, the watch here is bats vs. bullpens more than marquee mound work.

gNERD 9.38 sits a bit below today’s average, but the ingredients are decent: the D-backs’ lineup owns a top-tier wRC+ (111) behind Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, while Cleveland’s relief corps ranks near the top by FIP and can slam doors. Eduardo Rodríguez is volatility in cleats—he just spun seven strong frames against Colorado and has been better in August by FIP, but the season has included a May shoulder IL stint and plenty of traffic, so third-time-through risk looms. Tanner Bibee’s profile is closer to league-average by xFIP-, and his last turn was a competent five-plus with limited damage; Cleveland’s elite pen is his best friend. Arizona’s relief group, meanwhile, remains a soft spot, compounded by injuries elsewhere (Corbin Burnes, Kevin Ginkel, Gabriel Moreno among the absences), which raises late-inning entertainment value. If you like offense early and leverage late, this is a sneaky-solid watch even without ace-level pNERD shine.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Come for Toronto’s bats-and-gloves double feature; stay to see whether 40-year-old Max Scherzer can spin another tidy outing with more guile than gas. Mitch Keller is the home-park counterpunch, trying to thread strikes past a lineup that’s been leading MLB in average and OBP. This gNERD 9.37 sits around the middle of the day’s slate, buoyed by a strong Jays tNERD (8.34): elite team defense and crisp run prevention travel well, and Toronto grades among the season’s best with the leather. Offensively, adding George Springer back from the concussion IL turns a good order into a fuller one. The headliner names don’t carry headliner pNERDs, but Scherzer just banked 7 IP of one-run ball and his second-half peripherals (K% up, xFIP ~3.8) say there’s still bite when he’s in the zone. Keller’s profile (xFIP ~4.05, just 0.72 HR/9) is more contact management than whiffs, and he’s been serviceable at PNC. Pittsburgh’s offense, meanwhile, ranks dead last by runs and slugging, which caps the ceiling unless the bullpen drags it late. In short: moderate watchability, with the Jays’ top-tier defense and on-base machine pitted against Keller’s strikes-first approach and a lineup that rarely punishes mistakes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Pittsburgh Pirates

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Mets-heavy watch: a top-barrel offense meets one of MLB’s leakiest defenses, with David Peterson capable of keeping the throttle steady. This isn’t an ace duel so much as “can Washington catch it while Jake Irvin finds fixes?”

The gNERD (9.26) sits a bit below today’s average, but the split explains the draw: Mets tNERD is near the top of today’s board while the Nats’ is near the bottom, so entertainment tilts toward New York’s bats and chaos on Washington’s side of the ledger. Peterson’s pNERD is modestly above average and the underlying says competent (xFIP- ~90), plus he already authored his first career complete-game shutout against these Nationals in June, a useful reminder of the matchup fit. Irvin’s pNERD is low and his recent run has been rough (winless this month with a 9.45 ERA over his last three), which pairs poorly with the Nats’ error-prone infield. If Francisco Álvarez sits after a thumb scare (MRI pending), that dings some Mets oomph, but Francisco Lindor’s fresh NL Player of the Week nod keeps the lineup’s watchability high. In short: not a pitchers’ clinic, but plenty of hard contact, baserunners, and a fair chance the gloves become part of the story.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

David Peterson, New York Mets

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

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Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Hunter Greene’s 100 mph-and-splitter reboot is the draw; the Angels’ bottom-tier glove work and wobbly run prevention mean you’re likely to see both whiffs and fireworks. Kyle Hendricks counters with precision, but his contact profile at home—especially vs. righties—hands Cincinnati’s right-handed bats a real window.

This sits a tick below today’s average gNERD, but it leans watchable because the pNERD split is lopsided: Greene (11.93) over Hendricks (1.99). Greene’s stuff/command jump is real—roughly 11.0 K/9 against just 2.1 BB/9 with a ~3.4 FIP—and he returned throwing 11 pitches at 100+ while mixing a splitter that keeps lefties honest. Hendricks brings guile, yet his run estimators are closer to average (4.8 FIP overall) and at Angel Stadium he’s been vulnerable to righties (home vs RHB: .362 AVG, 5.95 FIP, 4.46 xFIP). The Angels do offer watchable thump—Taylor Ward pacing them in homers—plus Mike Trout is back as a DH, even if still managing a knee, but Los Angeles’ defense/bullpen have trended toward “adventure,” and they’ve allowed 18 homers over their last 10 games. Add Cincinnati’s plus baserunning and you get a clean narrative: Greene’s strikeouts and Reds pressure versus Angels contact and loud mistakes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Angels

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

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Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Two playoff-hopefuls with elite run prevention and scuffling bats square off behind command artist Merrill Kelly and pace merchant Seth Lugo. If you prefer crisp, low-scoring tension to laser shows, this one fits.

At a gNERD of 8.89, it’s a mid-table watch by today’s standards (10.93 average), but the stakes and styles nudge it up. Texas gets the slight pNERD edge because Kelly’s underlying run prevention (xFIP- 91) outpaces Lugo’s (106), and the Rangers just traded for him precisely for outings like this. The entertainment here is less about thunder and more about texture: Lugo works quickly and leans on contact management, while both clubs suppress runs as well as almost anyone (team ERAs: TEX 3.44, KC 3.60). Offensively, the inputs say “modest”—both teams grade negatively in batting runs and barrels—so defense and bullpen leverage should carry the drama; note Kansas City’s sturdy relief group and a whiff of positive “luck,” which could wobble in tight spots. Texas is shorthanded with Adolis García on the IL, further tilting the game toward gloves and gap-to-gap singles, while the Royals’ rotation has been held together by Lugo amid injuries elsewhere.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Kansas City Royals (2.11 rating)

Texas Rangers

Kansas City Royals

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

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Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

A Rule 5 rookie All‑Star fresh off the IL versus a contact manager on a wobbly Braves staff makes this a “contrast watch,” not a marquee. The gNERD is mid‑tier, but Smith’s reset and Elder’s last start nudge it above background noise.

Shane Smith’s pNERD is a tick above today’s average and his profile fits: midpack run estimators (as SP: 4.20 FIP, 4.41 xFIP) with real arm speed and youth upside; he returned from a mid‑July ankle IL stint and spun five scoreless his last time out. The opposing act is Bryce Elder: similar pNERD, far quicker tempo, and coming off a sturdy 7 IP, 2 ER at the Mets; his peripherals have oddly played better on the road than at Truist this year, which is relevant here. The team side drags: Chicago’s tNERD is low on purpose—light bat, shaky fielding, decent pen—while Atlanta’s is modest, lifted by better contact quality and defense. If you want chaos potential, the series just opened 13–9, reminding us both lineups can stumble into loud innings even without elite underlying bats.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Atlanta Braves

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Come for Boston’s team-speed-and-glove show, stay to see whether two name-brand starters with modest pNERDs can thread enough strikes to let the game breathe. This rates below today’s slate by gNERD, but the Red Sox’s high-tNERD ingredients make it more watchable than the headline pitching would suggest.

With a 7.25 gNERD (well under today’s average), the matchup leans on Boston’s strengths: plus defense and lively baserunning that tends to manufacture action; they’ve been among the better fielding groups by midseason defensive composites, and they run often (108 SB on the team page), both reliable watchability additives. Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Walker Buehler is confirmed, but the pNERD pair (1.24 vs. 1.37) and xFIP- marks (113, 118) suggest contact over whiffs. Sugano’s storyline helps: he just logged his 10th MLB win and has stabilized after a bumpy midyear stretch. Buehler, on a one-year prove-it in Boston, has flashed better pace but was touched for four in six his last time out. Baltimore’s rebuild subplot adds novelty, too, with 21-year-old Samuel Basallo newly promoted and getting real run. If you want crisp team baseball more than ace-vs-ace theatrics, this fits the bill.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

Walker Buehler, Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Power-vs.-pitch-to-contact at altitude alert: the gNERD sits at the bottom of today’s slate because one side (Gomber/Rockies) suppresses watchability, but the Dodgers’ bats and bullpen keep this from a hard pass. There’s also a curiosity factor: Emmet Sheehan’s rehab-year return gives you a mid‑90s look with real bat-missing potential and just enough volatility to keep the remote nearby.

Sheehan is back in the rotation post–UCL surgery (activated June 18) and, while his last turn yielded five runs to the Angels, his underlying indicators are playable: season xFIP lives in the low-4s and improves with the bases empty (xFIP ~3.2), hinting that sequencing more than stuff has hurt him so far. The lineup behind him has clicked for 15 homers in the last 10 games, and the bullpen grades top‑five by FanGraphs’ preseason model, both watchability pluses. On the other side, Austin Gomber’s profile is the drag: soft whiffs and a .312 opponent average this year, the textbook “contact in play” starter, now facing Ohtani/Betts et al. Combine that with Colorado’s bottom-tier offense and beleaguered pen and you get our low gNERD: run-scoring interest, limited two-way quality.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies

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