MLB: What to watch on August 20, 2025

• 20 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 5:05p

Summary

Top gNERD on the board, and it earns it: a 23-year-old, triple-digit rookie comet meets a contact-minded veteran in a rivalry with real standings bite. If you like contrast—power vs. speed, whiffs vs. barrels, youth vs. guile—this has it.

Jacob Misiorowski brings 99–103 with a vicious breaker, fresh off a mid‑August return from a brief IL stint; the stuff has been loud enough to draw national ink, and the pNERD (11.35) says the bat-missing is real even if the command wanders. Colin Rea isn’t a whiff machine, but he’s tweaked his mix—more four-seamers, a gyro slider—and leans on soft contact to get through turns; pNERD (2.54) flags the lower sizzle, but the pitch-shape makeover is legit. The Brewers’ identity is speed and prevention—elite defense with a go‑go running game that set a theft record this spring—and that juice shows up in a top-shelf tNERD. The Cubs counter with barrels and thump across the order, a profile that plays if they square up the heater. Layer on divisional stakes—division-leading Brewers versus a Cubs club coming off a doubleheader sweep—and the watchability writes itself.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago Cubs

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

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Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:05a

Summary

Top-shelf watch: a gNERD of 13.39 puts this well above today’s average, marrying Philly’s basepath chaos with a whiff-forward lefty in Jesús Luzardo against Seattle’s thunder-and-miscues profile. Luzardo’s velocity pop and tinkering (new sweeper, four-seam–heavy looks) meet Luis Castillo’s good-but-volatile baseline—prime territory for both punchouts and dents in the outfield padding.

Luzardo carries the higher pNERD (8.79) on skill: an 83 xFIP-, ~96 mph, and recent arsenal tweaks that restored swing-and-miss after some turbulence. The sweeper/arm-slot and fastball-mix notes aren’t fluff; they’ve been a real lever in 2025. Castillo (pNERD 5.16) brings 95 and the cambio, but the underlying is closer to league average (xFIP- 99) and he’s fresh off a six-run clunker, the type he sprinkles between quality starts.

Team context nudges watchability further: the Phillies are pacing the NL East and can manufacture pressure on the bases, while Seattle’s barrel rate plays even as the leather gives some back. That’s why the tNERD split (PHI 7.65 vs SEA 5.17) tilts the stage, and why this ranks in the historic upper quartile for gNERD. Add the stakes—Philly chasing seeding, Seattle chasing the AL West—and you’ve got appointment viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

A high-gNERD tilt with real juice: Drew Rasmussen’s polished efficiency meets the Yankees’ top-barrel attack and a 100-mph wildcard in Cam Schlittler. If you want stuff and stakes, you get both.

At 13.12, this game sits comfortably above today’s average and near the top quartile of our historical distribution, and the ingredients explain why. Rasmussen brings a strong pNERD, mid‑90s velocity and an xFIP- of 82, plus recent stingy outings since his return to full-time starting; he even earned an All‑Star nod this summer. Opposite him is Schlittler, about whom we have little MLB data but one loud debut: 5.1 innings, seven strikeouts and triple‑digit heat, making him the literal upside play here. The Yankees’ watchability is buoyed by elite barrel rates and the subplot of Aaron Judge hitting while easing back from an elbow issue, which has kept him at DH for now. Tampa Bay’s appeal leans on a quality bullpen and plus baserunning, even as the defense lags. New York’s deadline makeover added two late‑inning monsters (David Bednar and Camilo Doval), raising the leverage theater if it’s close late.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Framber Valdez’s sinker-and-grounders machine meets Detroit’s take-the-extra-base ethos, with freshly acquired Charlie Morton facing his old club; the gNERD 12.0 sits above today’s average and right at the historic 75th percentile, so this deserves a real look.

Valdez’s 7.01 pNERD is driven by a strong xFIP- and his signature contact suppression; Statcast backs the shape (26.7% K, 3.60 xERA), so expect a steady stream of worms for Detroit’s infield to vacuum. Detroit’s bigger tNERD (8.13) comes from barrels, speed and defense, while Houston’s lower tNERD (4.73) hides a sturdy bullpen—i.e., the entertainment leans “clean baseball” over a homer derby. Morton’s the narrative hook: deadline pickup, curveball sage, and trying to beat Houston for the first time since 2019 after spinning six scoreless last time out. Recent context nudges this toward a taut watch rather than a shootout: Houston’s lineup has been in a bona fide funk, repeatedly blanked in this set. In short, it’s a high-floor game: Valdez’s ground-ball craftsmanship versus A.J. Hinch’s basepath pressure, with Morton’s post-deadline variance as the wildcard—less fireworks, more edge-of-seat sequencing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Houston Astros

Detroit Tigers

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Shohei Ohtani atop today’s pNERD board (11.91) meets baseball’s loftiest launchpad, making this a rare “must-peek” Coors outing. It’s also his first true start on that mound outside his 2021 All-Star cameo, so we finally get the full Ohtani-at-altitude experiment.

The gNERD of 11.09 sits above today’s average and nudges into the upper third of the historical range, and the ingredients check out: Ohtani’s elite xFIP-, big velocity, and whiff profile power his pNERD, with a 6.4 K/BB and 1.11 WHIP reinforcing the model’s optimism; opposite him is Tanner Gordon (2.92 pNERD), a low bat-miss, contact-heavy arm—dicey in Denver—even if his home split has looked better than his road one.

Team-wise, the Dodgers’ robust tNERD (7.62) dwarfs Colorado’s bottom-of-today slate mark (-0.28), a tidy shorthand for “dangerous L.A. bats plus a real bullpen versus a club that struggles in all the watchability places.” If you want a storyline garnish, Ohtani homered here last night in an 11–4 romp, not that you should expect “momentum,” just the usual Coors chaos with a superstar on the mound.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

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Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p

Summary

A rookie debut with a plus changeup versus a contact-prone righty and a bullpen on a tightrope? That’s watchable. With a gNERD of 10.66—basically today’s middle—the upside comes from the unknown of Parker Messick and the chaos potential in Arizona’s late innings.

Messick (pNERD 0.00) is a true mystery box, but he arrives with a AAA line that plays (98.2 IP, 119 K) and a low‑80s cambio that headlines every scouting blurb; he’s been on a roll and gets the ball here. Pfaadt (pNERD 4.26) throws strikes and gives up barrels; he’s allowed one of the NL’s highest hit totals, though his underlying run prevention at Chase is better than the ERA suggests (home FIP/xFIP: 2.75/3.51). Team-wise, the watchability split is clean: Cleveland’s tNERD (6.07) leans on defense, baserunning, and a top‑shelf bullpen, while Arizona’s tNERD (5.99) is offense‑forward with a leaky relief corps. Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo have recently raked atop the order, but the D‑backs’ relief injuries and blowups keep doors open late. If Messick’s changeup translates and Cleveland reaches that soft underbelly, this mid-tier gNERD plays up; if Pfaadt’s better home indicators hold, it stays a tight watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Arizona Diamondbacks

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

A tidy rematch for the connoisseurs: Andre Pallante recently one-hit the Marlins over seven, and Sandy Alcantara answered with five scoreless against these Cardinals, so both starters have fresh, relevant receipts. With a mid-pack gNERD 10.36, the appeal leans less on fireworks and more on execution, gloves, and whether Alcantara’s premium velocity or Pallante’s contact management blinks first.

Relative to today’s slate it’s middle-ish, but slightly above the historical median, and the ingredients are solid: St. Louis brings plus fielding and a good bullpen (tNERD components +1.41 and +0.80), while Miami is young and athletic but supported by a shakier pen. On the mound, the pNERDs are near average, yet contrasting: Pallante’s xFIP- is the better number (94) despite low whiffs and a slower pace, whereas Alcantara’s four-seam still hums at 97-plus even as his xFIP- lags (108). The recent head-to-head provides built-in narrative: Pallante carved Miami on July 28; Alcantara stifled St. Louis the next night. Miami being without All-Star Kyle Stowers trims some thump around the edges, nudging the watch toward run prevention and late-inning bullpen chess. If you like outfield routes, quick zeroes, and the occasional 99 up in the zone, this is your kind of middle-innings efficiency play rather than a launch-angle showcase.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

Toronto’s rolling lineup meets a comeback plot: Johan Oviedo is only two outings removed from Tommy John, while the Blue Jays arrive hitting like a traveling fireworks show. This grades as a mid-pack watch for today by gNERD, but the matchup of a hot offense against a rusty return makes it worth a channel check.

The model likes the game because Toronto’s tNERD (8.46) dwarfs Pittsburgh’s (3.10), and the bats back that up: over the last month the Jays have led MLB in most offensive categories, which is terrible timing for a Pirates staff easing Oviedo back in. Bassitt’s pNERD is modest, but his xFIP- sits better than league average (92) and his simplified sinker/cutter/curve approach has been an effective tweak; he’s also historically handled the Bucs. Oviedo, meanwhile, is making just his second MLB start since 2023 after an Aug. 4 one-inning, 43-pitch return that showed command rust and reduced velo — a storyline as compelling as it is fragile. If you prefer offense to a duel, Pittsburgh’s bottom-tier lineup (last in runs per game, HR, SLG, OPS entering the week) against Toronto’s defense and bullpen still offers clarity.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Brad Lord’s fastball-from-the-shirt act meets a barrel-happy Mets lineup; the other tension is whether New York can keep its bullpen off the stage. With the Mets leading MLB in relief “meltdowns” and Kodai Senga seldom working deep, the late innings are the sell.

At 10.22, the gNERD sits near the historical median, built mostly on the Mets’ lofty tNERD (10.94) and Lord’s above-average pNERD (6.78) offsetting a thin Nats tNERD. Lord’s profile checks the watchability boxes: xFIP- at 92, 95 mph heat, quick tempo, and the delightful backstory of a Home Depot winter turned rotation piece; since rejoining the rotation he’s run strong results, and Federal Baseball/WaPo have been banging the drum.

Senga’s pNERD (2.23) flags some rough edges (xFIP- 105, lower strike rate, slower pace), and he hasn’t cleared six since early June, which keeps New York’s volatile bullpen in play; the silver lining is a tidy career line vs. Washington.

Lineup-wise, Soto, Alonso and Lindor supply the Mets’ thump, while James Wood headlines Washington’s counterpunch. Francisco Álvarez’s thumb IL stint dings New York’s offense/catching—another nudge toward late drama.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

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Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A watchability wildcard: Kansas City’s rookie changeup artist Noah Cameron versus…Texas’s Mystery Box. The Royals just took their fifth straight and Bobby Witt Jr. hit career homer No. 100, so the home crowd arrives warmed up.

The gNERD sits a hair below today’s average, which fits a defense-forward matchup: both clubs prevent runs far better than they score them—Texas has been near the top in run prevention all year and K.C. close behind—while each offense grades light in our tNERD inputs. Cameron’s pNERD is buoyed by age and tempo, and the scouting reads match: ~92 mph with a five-pitch mix, a plus changeup, some reverse splits, and peripherals (FIP around the low-4s) that trail his shiny run prevention—translation: entertaining sequencing and quick innings, but not invincible. Texas hasn’t officially named a starter; listings vary from TBA to Kumar Rocker to even Jacob deGrom, though deGrom is reportedly sidelined until at least Aug. 25, so plan for uncertainty. With Royals “Luck” running hot in our model and Texas bringing plus defense and baserunning, this leans toward a tidy, low-scoring watch where Cameron’s pitchability and Witt’s star power give K.C. the style points.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Kansas City Royals (2.11 rating)

Texas Rangers

Kansas City Royals

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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Athletics @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Oakland’s swing-happy power meets Minnesota’s bullpen insurance policy—watch for loud A’s contact early and Duran waiting at the end. It’s a mid-tier gNERD, but the ingredients—Oakland’s homers, Ober’s command, and a stout Twins relief corps—make it playlist-worthy rather than background noise.

With a gNERD of 9.90, this sits just below today’s average, yet Oakland’s higher tNERD does the heavy lifting: the A’s rank among MLB’s top home-run outfits, and Shea Langeliers has been one of the league’s post-break damage leaders. On the mound, J.T. Ginn’s pNERD (5.07) is buoyed by a strong xFIP- (82), hinting at better skill than surface stats; he’s also traveled well, per the league preview. Bailey Ober’s pNERD is lower (3.32): he fills the zone, but a weak xFIP- (116) suggests that strikes can find barrels if he misses spots—even if he once CG’d the A’s. Minnesota’s draw is that bullpen; Jhoan Duran and friends tilt close games and were projected (and have looked) elite again.

Translation: if the A’s bats ambush Ober, stay for the Twins’ late-inning counterpunch; if Ginn’s underlying stuff plays, this could age into a crisp, low-scoring watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Athletics

Minnesota Twins

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Padres bullpen might be the headliner, but a fast‑working Landen Roupp and his bendy curve give this one enough pitch‑to‑pitch texture to merit a look. JP Sears’ post‑deadline wobble makes the matchup volatile—in other words, potentially fun.

With a gNERD of 9.03, this sits a bit below today’s average, but the components split in interesting ways: Padres tNERD is strong (buoyed by that relief corps and a quality TV booth), while the Giants’ tNERD drags. Roupp owns the higher pNERD (5.92 to 1.11), works quickly (15.1s), and has the better skill signal by xFIP- (98 vs. Sears’ 114), so the pitchability edge leans San Francisco. Roupp’s last start was rough (5 ER in 3.0 IP), yet he blanked these Padres over 6.1 IP earlier this year, the sort of contrast that tends to keep you watching each inning.

Sears, acquired with All‑Star closer Mason Miller, was even optioned after his shaky Padres debut and now lines up to start again—an uncertainty boost that plays into watchability (for better or worse).

Context notes: the Padres just beat SF 5–1, Jackson Merrill is day‑to‑day (ankle), and the Giants are thin with Matt Chapman on the IL and Erik Miller shut down.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

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Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

This one’s about scouting Hurston Waldrep’s splitter—and catching Ronald Acuña Jr. back in the lineup—not about a marquee duel. Martín Pérez is making his first start since April 18 after a 60‑day IL stint, so the draw is curiosity more than clash.

With a gNERD of 6.48, it’s below today’s average (10.65) and under the historical median, thanks largely to a soft average pNERD (2.85). Pérez’s inputs here flag low swing‑and‑miss and strike rate; Waldrep’s pNERD is 0.00 only because the big‑league sample is new. That sample has been loud: 17 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings over three starts with just two earned runs, the product of a uniquely low‑spin, mid‑80s splitter that pairs with mid‑90s heat. If you like pitch‑design showcases, you’ll get one.

Team‑wise, the watchability tilt is modest: the White Sox tNERD (2.90) reflects weak bats and defense, while the Braves’ tNERD (4.35) is buoyed more by gloves than run creation—fine for a pitcher’s spotlight, less so for fireworks. Acuña’s activation last week adds a welcome bit of star wattage to the background. Tune in for Waldrep’s splitter and to see what Pérez looks like post‑IL; just calibrate expectations accordingly.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Atlanta Braves

Martín Pérez, Chicago White Sox

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

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Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Low gNERD, mild intrigue: run-happy Reds versus the Angels’ leaky defense and volatile bullpen, with Nick Martinez’s recent near no‑no opposite Yusei Kikuchi’s mid‑90s heat.

At 5.79, this is today’s lowest gNERD and near the historic basement; thin tNERD (2.26) and pNERD (3.52) say background TV, with Martinez vs. Kikuchi on tap. Martinez’s pNERD (2.71) reflects limited whiffs, yet he nearly no‑hit San Diego in late June; Kikuchi (4.33) counters with a 94.9 mph four‑seamer and stabilized peripherals. Cincinnati’s edge is style: 87 team steals to L.A.’s 60 — pressure that can stress an Angels club dinged by early‑season DRS and still uneven with the glove. The relief corps hasn’t helped; the Angels’ bullpen results have sat near the bottom, even if estimators hint they should be merely below average, a recipe for late‑inning weird. If you want star wattage, Mike Trout is back at DH, and the latest meeting pushed Cincinnati’s head‑to‑head run to 10 straight. Expect baserunning hijinks and leverage‑heavy endings more than a pitcher’s duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Angels

Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

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