MLB: What to watch on August 21, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1 | 11:20a | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.9 | Chicago Cubs | 9.9 | Quinn Priester | 6.5 | Shota Imanaga | 3.8 |
| 13.0 | 1:05p | New York Mets | 10.9 | Washington Nationals | 0.5 | Sean Manaea | 7.2 | MacKenzie Gore | 7.3 |
| 12.6 | 4:15p | Boston Red Sox | 8.8 | New York Yankees | 8.3 | Lucas Giolito | 3.1 | Luis Gil | No data |
| 11.5 | 4:35p | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | Tampa Bay Rays | 6.0 | Sonny Gray | 7.4 | Joe Boyle | 3.8 |
| 10.8 | 1:10p | San Francisco Giants | 3.4 | San Diego Padres | 7.7 | Justin Verlander | 2.9 | Dylan Cease | 7.6 |
| 9.3 | 10:10a | Athletics | 7.4 | Minnesota Twins | 4.2 | Jack Perkins | No data | José Ureña | 2.0 |
| 8.1 | 11:10a | Texas Rangers | 5.0 | Kansas City Royals | 4.6 | Patrick Corbin | 3.6 | Michael Lorenzen | 3.1 |
| 7.5 | 12:10p | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.5 | Colorado Rockies | -0.3 | Clayton Kershaw | 3.5 | Chase Dollander | 4.2 |
| 7.4 | 4:15p | Houston Astros | 4.6 | Baltimore Orioles | 3.0 | Jason Alexander | 3.0 | Brandon Young | 4.2 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a
Summary
Today’s top-rated gNERD meets near–95th-percentile historic territory, and it earns it. Two athletic clubs that run and glove well square off in a division race that actually matters, with a lively pitcher contrast to match.
Milwaukee’s and Chicago’s tNERDs are both near 10, driven by plus baserunning and defense, so expect action on balls in play rather than a walk-fest. Our model likes Quinn Priester more than you might expect (pNERD 6.5, above the historic 75th percentile), thanks to an above‑average xFIP (xFIP‑ 92) and a brisk pace that keeps the game moving. Shota Imanaga’s pNERD trails, but he’s trending well: three straight quality starts, including seven innings of one‑run ball his last time out, and since returning from a hamstring strain in late June he’s run a sparkling 51:5 K:BB, i.e., premium strike‑throwing without freebies.
There’s also real stakes: Chicago has won five of six to trim the gap, while Milwaukee cooled after a 14‑game heater, which only sharpens the edges here.
Net: elite team watchability plus contrasting arms—command artist vs. efficient, above‑average bat-muter—make this the game to prioritize.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 43.6 | 6.4% | 14.6 | 24.8 | 37.4 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -44.0 | 2.66 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.81 | -1.71 | 2.38 | 1.27 | 0.66 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -2.07 | 0.53 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.81 | -1.71 | 2.38 | 1.27 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 4.00 | 9.91 |
Chicago Cubs
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 53.7 | 9.9% | 9.2 | 28.1 | 19.2 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -19.0 | 3.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.48 | 1.44 | -0.38 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.90 | 1.22 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.48 | 1.44 | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 9.87 |
Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92 | 10.0% | 63.2% | 93.9 mph | 24 | 16.7s | -8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.53 | -0.26 | -0.34 | 0.03 | -1.21 | -1.48 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.06 | -0.13 | -0.17 | 0.03 | 1.21 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.54 |
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 109 | 11.8% | 68.2% | 90.8 mph | 31 | 19.0s | -34 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.48 | 0.62 | 1.77 | -1.38 | 0.58 | 0.38 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.97 | 0.31 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.84 |
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p
Summary
Strikeout theater vs. barrel brigade: MacKenzie Gore’s whiffs against a Mets lineup that lives on loud contact makes this 12.95 gNERD one to prioritize. If you like a little chaos, Washington’s bullpen tends to supply it, and Sean Manaea’s recent wobble adds combustible late-inning potential.
Both starters carry strong pNERDs (~7.2). Gore’s been the headliner: mid‑90s heat, a nastier breaker mix, and a season built on K power after a 13‑strikeout, no‑walk Opening Day that set a Nationals record and foreshadowed elite swing‑and‑miss rates. The Mets bring today’s top tNERD, driven by a team barrel rate around 10.4% (league ~8.6%), so every mistake can leave a dent. Manaea’s profile still grades fine under the hood (xFIP‑ 89, quick pace), but his recent August turns were short and choppy, which matters because New York’s starters haven’t been buying many innings lately. On the other side, Washington’s weakest link has been its relief corps, which owns the league’s worst ERA, so even a Gore gem can unravel once the gate opens. Net effect: high watchability via a premium K artist facing premium contact, with real chances for late swings—statistical and literal—thanks to the contrasting tNERDs and the bullpens behind them.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)
Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)
New York Mets
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 49.4 | 10.3% | 5.8 | 3.5 | 36.7 | $332.0M | 29.7 | 22.0 | 3.32 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.92 | 1.44 | 0.92 | 0.18 | 0.62 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 1.03 | 1.82 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.92 | 1.44 | 0.92 | 0.18 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 1.82 | 4.00 | 10.93 |
Washington Nationals
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -33.9 | 7.7% | -2.2 | -37.5 | -7.0 | $115.9M | 27.5 | -21.0 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.60 | -0.66 | -0.42 | -1.91 | -1.89 | -0.77 | -1.25 | -0.99 | -0.75 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.60 | -0.66 | -0.42 | -1.91 | -1.89 | 0.77 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.54 |
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 89 | 10.9% | 68.9% | 91.6 mph | 33 | 16.6s | 29 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.71 | 0.18 | 2.09 | -1.01 | 1.10 | -1.56 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.41 | 0.09 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.17 |
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 86 | 13.6% | 63.1% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 19.2s | 10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.88 | 1.50 | -0.41 | 0.67 | -0.70 | 0.54 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.77 | 0.75 | -0.20 | 0.67 | 0.70 | -0.27 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.26 |
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:15p
Summary
A rivalry game with numbers to match: a gNERD 12.56 and two top-tier tNERDs say this one’s driven by bats and bullpens more than by headline aces. It’s the Yankees’ power in a short-porch park versus Lucas Giolito’s comeback, while recently returned Luis Gil tries to land strikes more often than souvenirs. The watchability case is strong: 12.56 sits above today’s slate average and around the historic 75th percentile, with both teams’ tNERDs buoyed by hard contact (NYY) and Boston’s fielding/baserunning-and-deep-pen profile. New York’s run differential and Statcast quality of contact trends support the “bring-your-bleachers” vibe, even if their bullpen wobbles, a tension that keeps late innings lively. On the mound, Giolito’s pNERD is modest, but he’s fresh off 6.1 innings of one-run ball and, post–internal brace surgery, has looked more steady than splashy; the short porch will test any homer propensity. Gil’s pNERD is zero only because of small sample: since rejoining the rotation he’s logged 14 IP with 14 K but 8 BB—encouraging stuff, inconsistent command—plus a solid win last time out. If this tilts bullpen-heavy, Boston’s group (projected top-10) and recent roster shuffles add intrigue against a Yankees relief corps that’s been more volatile.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)
Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 18.6 | 9.7% | 6.0 | 22.8 | 46.6 | $191.8M | 28.7 | -16.0 | 2.47 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.36 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 0.25 | -0.02 | -0.76 | 0.16 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.36 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 4.00 | 8.80 |
New York Yankees
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 100.9 | 11.6% | -1.9 | 4.5 | 17.1 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 12.0 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.85 | 2.49 | -0.37 | 0.23 | -0.50 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.56 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.85 | 2.49 | -0.37 | 0.23 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.26 |
Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 105 | 10.0% | 64.5% | 93.5 mph | 30 | 19.1s | -20 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.25 | -0.26 | 0.22 | -0.15 | 0.33 | 0.46 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.49 | -0.13 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.06 |
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
No detailed stats available
St. Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p
Summary
Craft vs. chaos is the hook: Sonny Gray’s surgical profile meets Joe Boyle’s 100-mph volatility, with St. Louis’s gloves and Tampa Bay’s legs deciding the margins. At a gNERD of 11.46—solidly above today’s average—this is a worthy channel surf stop for fans of contrasts rather than slugfests.
Gray’s stronger pNERD (7.36) is driven by a sub-80 xFIP- and plus strike-throwing, so the watch here is sequencing and whiffs over radar-gun theater. Boyle brings the latter in spades but a lighter pNERD (3.85); the Rays have retooled him with a lower arm slot and a new “splinker,” which pairs with triple-digit heat but still flirts with walk trouble, i.e., high-variance innings. St. Louis’s team-side appeal is defense and bullpen stability (tNERD 5.74 with standout fielding), a real on-screen feature that helps keep Gray’s contact manageable. The Rays counter with motion: they’ve been among MLB’s most larcenous on the bases, so every single can become television. Lineup-wise, note the Cards are thin without Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan, nudging this toward a run-prevention watch rather than a fireworks show. If you like precision vs. raw stuff plus baserunning chaos, this sits in the upper-middle of the day’s slate for watchability.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)
St. Louis Cardinals
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -7.8 | 7.9% | -2.5 | 27.9 | 39.4 | $135.7M | 28.6 | -12.0 | 2.17 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.12 | -0.50 | -0.47 | 1.43 | 0.78 | -0.50 | -0.13 | -0.57 | -0.43 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.12 | -0.50 | -0.47 | 1.43 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.74 |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -18.5 | 7.5% | 9.9 | -30.5 | 36.2 | $89.9M | 27.4 | -21.0 | 2.27 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.32 | -0.82 | 1.60 | -1.56 | 0.59 | -1.12 | -1.35 | -0.99 | -0.23 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.32 | -0.82 | 1.60 | -1.56 | 0.59 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.97 |
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 73 | 11.9% | 66.7% | 91.9 mph | 35 | 20.3s | 31 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.66 | 0.67 | 1.14 | -0.88 | 1.61 | 1.42 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.31 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.71 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.36 |
Joe Boyle, Tampa Bay Rays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 119 | 10.5% | 59.3% | 98.7 mph | 25 | 17.9s | -5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.08 | -0.02 | -2.00 | 2.21 | -0.96 | -0.51 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.15 | -0.01 | -1.00 | 2.00 | 0.96 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.85 |
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p
Summary
Cease’s whiffs vs. a below-average Giants lineup, with a supercharged Padres bullpen waiting, makes this a strikeout-and-high‑leverage special. Verlander’s name brings gravitas; Cease and San Diego’s back end bring the watchability.
With a gNERD of 10.81 (above today’s average), the appeal skews pitcher/bullpen: Cease’s pNERD leads here and the stuff backs it up—97 mph heat, a ~30% K rate, a career‑best swinging‑strike clip, and a FIP far sleeker than his ERA, the classic “the skills are fine” profile. Verlander’s pNERD lags, but there’s intrigue: he’s still mid‑90s and publicly tinkering to “find it,” and he’s coming off a crisp, zero‑run, eight‑K turn that hints at more than the surface shows. Team-wise, San Diego’s tNERD rides a bullpen that was already a strength and then added Mason Miller at the deadline—exactly the sort of move that shortens games and spikes late‑inning drama. The Giants’ tNERD is pulled down by a light offense (team wRC+ 94) and shaky contact quality, a tough fit against Cease’s bat‑missing. If Jackson Merrill’s recent ankle issue keeps him out, that nicks some Padres offense, but the arms still headline.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)
Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)
San Francisco Giants
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -33.9 | 7.4% | -7.9 | 9.5 | 29.4 | $195.3M | 29.3 | -6.0 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.60 | -0.90 | -1.37 | 0.49 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.59 | -0.29 | 1.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.60 | -0.90 | -1.37 | 0.49 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 4.00 | 3.41 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 7.8 | 7.0% | -1.2 | -1.9 | 64.2 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 17.0 | 3.47 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.16 | -1.22 | -0.25 | -0.09 | 2.20 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.79 | 2.12 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.16 | -1.22 | -0.25 | -0.09 | 2.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 2.12 | 4.00 | 7.70 |
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 111 | 11.0% | 65.2% | 94.2 mph | 42 | 19.1s | -7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.60 | 0.23 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 3.41 | 0.46 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.20 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 86 | 15.5% | 63.1% | 97.1 mph | 29 | 19.8s | 28 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.88 | 2.43 | -0.40 | 1.48 | 0.07 | 1.02 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.77 | 1.21 | -0.20 | 1.48 | 0.00 | -0.51 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 7.61 |
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins, 10:10a
Summary
**Rookie-versus-reclamation special: Jack Perkins gets his fourth big-league start while the Twins hand the ball to newly-added José Ureña, who just spun 5.2 scoreless in long relief. **
**The gNERD sits at 9.25—just below today’s average—so the hook is less ace-on-ace and more contrast: the A’s lively youth and recent thump against a retooling Twins staff and a chilly lineup. **
Oakland’s bats have been friskier than their payroll suggests, with 16 homers and a .463 slug over the last 10; meanwhile Minnesota is at .179 in that span, though Byron Buxton still leads the club in homers. Perkins’ novelty factor is real—called up in June and flashing 9.4 K/9 in a tiny sample—while Ureña brings mid‑90s velocity but a contact-leaning ~4.9 K/9, which nudges this toward balls in play and defensive variance rather than whiff-fests. The late innings offer intrigue, too: Minnesota’s bullpen picture shifted after trading Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, and Oakland just beat the Twins in extras on a Shea Langeliers 10th‑inning homer.
Translation to NERD: modest pNERDs limit pure pitching appeal, but the A’s higher tNERD (young roster, value vibes) and current power upsell the watch. If you like contact-heavy innings with the chance of a late sting, this plays.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)
Athletics
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 32.0 | 8.3% | 0.3 | -19.5 | 17.4 | $77.1M | 27.6 | 46.0 | 1.27 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.60 | -0.17 | -0.00 | -0.99 | -0.49 | -1.29 | -1.14 | 2.15 | -2.19 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.60 | -0.17 | -0.00 | -0.99 | -0.49 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.38 |
Minnesota Twins
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -19.9 | 8.7% | -8.5 | -11.4 | 51.4 | $145.1M | 28.8 | 12.0 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.34 | 0.15 | -1.47 | -0.58 | 1.47 | -0.37 | 0.08 | 0.56 | -0.17 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.34 | 0.15 | -1.47 | -0.58 | 1.47 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.16 |
Jack Perkins, Athletics
No detailed stats available
José Ureña, Minnesota Twins
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 125 | 7.7% | 63.8% | 96.4 mph | 33 | 17.0s | -25 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.43 | -1.39 | -0.09 | 1.17 | 1.10 | -1.24 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.87 | -0.69 | -0.05 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.97 |
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a
Summary
This is contact theater, not a strikeout clinic: both Patrick Corbin and Michael Lorenzen bring below-average whiff rates and roughly league-average xFIPs, so the ball should be in play. Add Vinnie Pasquantino running hot and a Royals club riding a strong homestand, and you’ve got a watchable, if unspectacular, chaos-by-contact setup.
gNERD 8.09 lands below today’s average and toward the lower end of the day’s range, and the main culprit is a modest average pNERD (3.33); team-wise, both tNERDs are middling, with Texas’ fun skewing toward defense and baserunning rather than bats. Corbin’s xFIP- (102) and Lorenzen’s (104) are near neutral while their SwStr% and strike rates lag, pointing to traffic and sequencing over punchouts. Recent storylines nudge watchability: Lorenzen just returned from an oblique issue with four scoreless frames, and Pasquantino has homered in three straight in this series and six times in his last 10 while KC is 7-2 on the homestand. Counterweight: Texas is patching things together, with Jake Burger back on the IL and the bullpen dinged by Cole Winn’s injury. Translation: if you like balls in play, a couple of fence-scrapers, and Bobby Witt Jr.’s legs causing mayhem, tune in; if you’re chasing ace-vs-ace, this isn’t it.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcast: Kansas City Royals (2.11 rating)
Texas Rangers
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -54.4 | 8.7% | 5.0 | 15.5 | 29.6 | $219.7M | 30.4 | -24.0 | 2.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.97 | 0.15 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.21 | 0.63 | 1.71 | -1.13 | -0.74 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.97 | 0.15 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.97 |
Kansas City Royals
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -57.2 | 7.6% | -3.0 | 10.2 | 31.4 | $130.0M | 28.8 | 31.0 | 2.11 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.02 | -0.74 | -0.55 | 0.52 | 0.32 | -0.58 | 0.08 | 1.45 | -0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.02 | -0.74 | -0.55 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.56 |
Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 10.9% | 62.6% | 91.5 mph | 35 | 18.4s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.07 | 0.18 | -0.62 | -1.06 | 1.61 | -0.11 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.13 | 0.09 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.55 |
Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 104 | 10.3% | 63.7% | 93.9 mph | 33 | 19.2s | 1 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.19 | -0.12 | -0.15 | 0.03 | 1.10 | 0.54 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.37 | -0.06 | -0.07 | 0.03 | 0.00 | -0.27 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p
Summary
Coors Field chaos meets a split‑screen special: gNERD 7.47 is near the floor of today’s slate, mostly because only one side brings the fun. Still, Kershaw‑at‑altitude against a 97‑mph rookie is worth a curious glance.
It’s Kershaw vs. Dollander, and the gap shows in tNERD (Dodgers 7.54, Rockies -0.31). Kershaw isn’t missing many bats (5.7 K/9), but he’s on a three‑start quality streak, just held San Diego to one run over six, and already logged six one‑run innings at Coors. Dollander brings 97.9 heat, but the line reads 5.53 FIP, a thin chase rate, and 15 HR in 78.1 innings—especially vulnerable to lefties. LA ranks 3rd in wOBA and 5th in ISO vs righties, while Colorado’s bullpen sits near the bottom by FIP, so expect Dodgers offense and a rookie stress test. Relative to today’s range (7.44–15.08) and historical distributions, this lands below‑average in watchability, but curiosity points accrue: a command artist coaxing soft contact at altitude and a live arm trying to harness it before the Dodgers’ deep lineup and superior pen put things out of reach.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)
Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 81.6 | 9.8% | 0.1 | -6.5 | 47.6 | $341.0M | 29.6 | -6.0 | 2.45 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.50 | 1.04 | -0.04 | -0.33 | 1.25 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.29 | 0.12 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.50 | 1.04 | -0.04 | -0.33 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 4.00 | 7.54 |
Colorado Rockies
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -116.4 | 8.1% | -7.6 | -26.9 | -1.0 | $125.9M | 27.9 | 19.0 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.09 | -0.34 | -1.32 | -1.37 | -1.54 | -0.63 | -0.84 | 0.89 | -1.29 | — | — |
| tNERD | -2.09 | -0.34 | -1.32 | -1.37 | -1.54 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 4.00 | -0.31 |
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 104 | 9.3% | 63.3% | 89.1 mph | 37 | 17.3s | -32 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.19 | -0.60 | -0.29 | -2.15 | 2.13 | -0.99 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.37 | -0.30 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.48 |
Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 119 | 9.8% | 61.1% | 97.7 mph | 23 | 18.3s | 16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.08 | -0.36 | -1.22 | 1.76 | -1.47 | -0.19 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -2.15 | -0.18 | -0.61 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.22 |
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:15p
Summary
Brandon Young just flirted with Orioles history against these Astros; now he gets them again, making this rematch more interesting than its modest gNERD suggests. On the other side, quick-working Jason Alexander has quietly stacked two crisp, scoreless six-inning starts, which pairs nicely with Houston’s sturdy bullpen.
At 7.44, today’s gNERD sits at the floor of the slate, and the components explain why: average-ish pNERDs (3.60) and middling team bats, with Baltimore’s tNERD dragged by shaky defense/bullpen while Houston’s is propped up by a strong ‘pen and a big positive Luck signal hinting at regression to better results. The hook, though, is real: six days ago Young carried a perfect game into the eighth vs. Houston before an infield single ended it, his first MLB win, and he’ll try to back it up at Camden Yards.
Alexander counters with a sinker/changeup profile, works fast (17.1s), and just blanked Miami then held the Yankees to one hit; if he keeps it on the ground, this could move briskly and hinge late—where Félix Bautista’s season-ending shoulder surgery and Josh Hader’s IL stint tilt the relief edge toward Houston’s depth. Wild card: Yordan Álvarez started a rehab assignment this week and could reappear in Baltimore, a watchability boost if activated.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)
Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)
Houston Astros
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -1.5 | 7.6% | -5.4 | 2.9 | 43.0 | $221.9M | 29.0 | 26.0 | 2.17 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.01 | -0.74 | -0.95 | 0.15 | 0.98 | 0.66 | 0.28 | 1.22 | -0.42 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.01 | -0.74 | -0.95 | 0.15 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.65 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -15.5 | 9.1% | -3.9 | -14.7 | 14.7 | $167.6M | 29.2 | -16.0 | 2.82 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.26 | 0.47 | -0.70 | -0.75 | -0.64 | -0.07 | 0.49 | -0.76 | 0.85 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.26 | 0.47 | -0.70 | -0.75 | -0.64 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 4.00 | 3.03 |
Jason Alexander, Houston Astros
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 106 | 9.6% | 61.2% | 91.4 mph | 32 | 17.1s | 9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.30 | -0.46 | -1.21 | -1.10 | 0.84 | -1.15 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.61 | -0.23 | -0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.99 |
Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 103 | 10.0% | 64.8% | 93.9 mph | 26 | 18.9s | 37 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.13 | -0.26 | 0.32 | 0.03 | -0.70 | 0.29 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.25 | -0.13 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.70 | -0.15 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.21 |