MLB: What to watch on August 22, 2025

• 22 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Top of today’s watchability board: Red Sox–Yankees gets the gNERD crown, and the stakes match the noise. Max Fried tries to steady a recent skid while Brayan Bello reprises the June duel he won.

Even with only average pNERDs, the teams do the heavy lifting: New York’s thunder (best-in-class barrel rate and run creation in our inputs) meets Boston’s tNERD cocktail of elite defense, smart baserunning, and a deep bullpen—an entertaining contrast that should keep traffic on the bases and leverage high late. Bello’s profile—95 mph with grounders—plays in any park, but the FIP/whiff mix leaves little cushion in the short porch, particularly versus lefties; note he spun seven scoreless against the Yankees in June, even if his indicators sit nearer league-average.

Fried still kills lift with a heavy ground-ball game and generally strong peripherals, yet a July blister and a run of bumpy outings have made him more storyline than sure thing of late.

Layer in a tight wild-card race and a rivalry the city would love to feel again, and this grades as the day’s best bet for drama, with bats and bullpens likely deciding it more than the marquee arms.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

Max Fried, New York Yankees

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

If you’re tuning in for one thing, make it Shane Bieber’s return to a big‑league mound in a new shade of blue. Toronto’s deadline swing for the 2020 Cy Young turns into a debut, and his rehab line — 37 strikeouts in 29 innings — hints there’s still whiff in the weaponry.

This gNERD sits near the top of today’s slate, and the model agrees with your eyes: Toronto’s high tNERD is powered by real strengths — plus batting runs, elite defense, and a top‑tier on‑base and slug profile — which raises the ceiling even if Bieber’s workload is capped. The Jays’ lineup ranks near the top in AVG/OBP/SLG, so there’s support if Bieber needs a soft landing. Miami, meanwhile, hasn’t confirmed a starter after rotation churn; Cal Quantrill had been listed, but reports indicate he was just claimed by Atlanta, so this could tilt bullpen‑heavy. Injuries haven’t helped the Marlins — Max Meyer and Ryan Weathers are shelved, and Kyle Stowers is out — lowering their tNERD and thinning run‑prevention options. As a bonus subplot, former Toronto signee Otto Lopez lines up against his old organization.

Net: a watchable test of a marquee comeback backed by a strong supporting cast against a short‑staffed opponent, with gNERD saying you could do much worse today.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Miami Marlins

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Nathan Eovaldi is the draw here: a top-tier pNERD (7.92) backed by a month-long tear and an eight-inning, one-hit blanking of the Yankees on August 5 that showcased why he was Pitcher of the Month in July. Cleveland’s counter, Slade Cecconi, brings strike-throwing and a tweaked sinker/cutter mix—but also volatility, as Atlanta just tagged him for eight runs on August 17.

With a gNERD of 11.69, this sits near the top of today’s slate and comfortably above the historical median—mostly on Eovaldi’s side of the ledger and Cleveland’s sturdy run-prevention profile. Eovaldi’s recent line points to true skill (xFIP- 72 in the model; plus whiffs and strikes), and Texas’ elite run prevention keeps games taut even while their bats sag. Cleveland’s offense is punchless but their defense and bullpen are watchable strengths, though they’re navigating life without Emmanuel Clase through August 31. Texas is also shorthanded with Adolis García on the IL, tamping down the long-ball threat around Corey Seager.

Bottom line: if you enjoy precision pitching and late-inning chess, Eovaldi vs. the Guardians’ gloves-and-‘pen is your flavor. If you crave crooked numbers, Cecconi’s variability is the path—but Eovaldi gives this matchup real watchability juice.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Texas Rangers

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers, 4:10p

Summary

Top-shelf watchability alert: Detroit’s bats-and-baserunning machine meets a Royals import who’s run-prevented like a frontliner but projects more like a mortal. With a gNERD of 11.39—well above today’s average and near the top of today’s range—this one has real stickiness.

Casey Mize carries the higher pNERD (5.77) and the better indicators (xFIP- 95, firm velocity, strike-throwing), and he’s arriving warm: an All-Star seeking a fourth straight August win after tying his career high with 10 Ks against Minnesota, backed by 23 runs of support across his last three starts. Ryan Bergert is the wild card: results-forward so far (2.75 ERA, 51 K in 52.1 IP; opponents .189) but with peripherals that look more ordinary (pNERD 3.65, xFIP- 108), a classic “is this real?” watch. He’s a mid-2025 pickup from San Diego who’s impressed early, adding novelty points.

Detroit’s tNERD (8.41) is buoyed by barrels and aggressive baserunning, while K.C.’s lower tNERD (4.95) leans on defense and a sturdy bullpen. Add in the Tigers’ shakier relief corps for potential late chaos, and you’ve got a game that’s fun both for the matchup questions and the inevitable traffic on the bases.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Ryan Bergert, Kansas City Royals

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

A division tilt with star power and contrasting arsenals: Blake Snell’s back on the mound for LA against Yu Darvish, pitting the Dodgers’ thunder against San Diego’s elite, All-Star-studded bullpen. Snell just blanked these Padres over six in his last meeting, while Darvish’s year has been wobblier—even if his long-run line vs. LA remains tidy.

With a gNERD of 11.32—above today’s average and near the historic 75th percentile—this one rates because the teams, not the pitchers, carry the watchability. LA’s bats and barrels (top-tier power by HR and run scoring) meet a San Diego relief corps that’s been a genuine weapon, now even deeper after adding Mason Miller. Snell’s pNERD (4.94) tops today’s average thanks to the whiffs and velocity, though the strike rate is twitchy; Darvish’s pNERD (2.58) and slower tempo nudge him below-average, making an early hook into that bullpen very live. The standings subplot doesn’t hurt either—this head-to-head has been framed as a swing for the NL West. Keep an eye on Shohei Ohtani’s day-to-day status for lineup thump. In short: tune in for early LA thunder versus Darvish’s mix, then stay for late-inning leverage when San Diego’s back end takes over.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

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Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

A rookie with upper-90s life meets a metronome: Oakland’s Luis Morales brings the electricity, and Seattle’s Bryan Woo brings the drumbeat. Add post‑deadline thump from Josh Naylor, and this rates near the upper tier of today’s slate on stuff-plus, novelty, and narrative.

With a gNERD of 11.24, this projects above today’s average, driven by a lively A’s offense (tNERD 7.66) against a Mariners club that barrels well but still runs strikeout‑prone (nearly nine Ks per game) — a nice recipe for pitcher/whiff drama. Morales, freshly elevated after Oakland’s sell‑off, touches 97–99 with a nasty slider and just logged his first MLB win with 5 strikeouts over 5 one‑run innings; the “can he carry it over?” question is the intrigue hook. Opposite him, Woo has been Seattle’s steadiest starter — low WHIP, mid‑3s FIP/xFIP territory, and consistent six‑inning turns — the kind of floor that keeps games crisp even if the bats lag.

Seattle’s lineup got a watchability bump with Naylor (and even a Eugenio Suárez reunion), while Oakland’s defense and bullpen wobble add late‑inning variance. Translation: early‑inning stuff show, late‑inning coin‑flips.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Athletics

Seattle Mariners

Luis Morales, Athletics

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Rookie intrigue meets lineup heft: the Mets bring Nolan McLean’s encore after a debut of 5⅓ scoreless and eight strikeouts built on a sweeper/curveball mix, while Atlanta counters with resurgent lefty Joey Wentz.

With a gNERD of 10.93, this sits in the upper tier of today’s slate and above the historical median; most of that juice comes from a top-of-the-day Mets tNERD (10.96) powered by elite barrel rate and a deep Soto–Alonso core, against a Braves club with a middling tNERD and a bullpen that has leaked runs. McLean’s pNERD is 0 only because the model lacks data, which actually adds some volatility-based watchability; what we do know is he missed bats and handled traffic like a veteran in start No. 1. Wentz has steadied Atlanta since moving into the rotation, posting a 25:11 K:BB over 31.2 innings across his last six starts; if his cutter plays, he can blunt New York’s lift-off. Atlanta’s offense is short a thumper with Austin Riley done for the year, though Ronald Acuña Jr. was just activated, nudging the star power back up. If you want stakes plus a rookie test against a contact-leaning lefty, this is your watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Contrast watch: a top-tier gNERD matchup where the Cubs’ glove-and-gas ensemble meets an Angels lineup with Trout back to table-setting while a shaky bullpen lurks. Probables suggest whiffs vs. wiles—Ben Brown’s bat-missing arsenal against Tyler Anderson’s changeup-first craft.

The gNERD (10.69) sits above today’s average, and the model likes it mostly because Chicago’s tNERD is doing the heavy lifting: barrels and speed with plus defense (tNERD 9.79) make their innings feel full, even when the scoreboard isn’t. The Angels’ tNERD is near the floor thanks to poor defense and a taxed pen, though their barrel rate keeps at-bats loud enough to matter. Ben Brown’s line is messy, but the ingredients are there—~25% K rate and an xERA in the mid-4s hint he’s pitched better than the runs allowed; that plays against an Angels order that can punish mistakes but also whiffs. Anderson leans on the cambio and soft contact; when he lives off it, he can sand down Chicago’s barrel edge—but his underlying rates rarely wow. Meanwhile, Los Angeles just snapped a skid, Trout’s on-base streak is alive, and Kenley Jansen’s rib issue has others closing, all of which adds late-inning volatility.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Tune in for the Zebby Experiment. Minnesota’s rookie righty brings big velocity and strike-throwing to a matchup against a thin White Sox profile and a volatile new-in-town Aaron Civale.

At gNERD 9.50, this sits near the middle of today’s slate and a shade below the historical median, but the pitcher contrast does the selling: Zebby Matthews’ hefty pNERD (10.93) dwarfs Civale’s 1.19. Matthews has transformed from “command-first” to “power-and-command,” with reports of a 95–97 mph heater plus cutter/slider, and he spent the offseason working a changeup to handle lefties; the stuff-jump storyline is real and recent.

Civale is the subplot: traded to the Sox on June 13 in a Vaughn-for-Civale swap, he followed a brief run of scoreless starts with a nine-earned blast furnace on Aug. 9, the definition of watchable uncertainty.

The model says the Twins are the more entertaining team (tNERD 4.05 vs. 2.83), buoyed by a strong run-prevention backbone and a bullpen that should keep the channel-flipping demons at bay if Matthews exits early. If you’re prioritizing, watch to see whether Matthe­­ws’ new power-play translates against a lineup our numbers don’t love—and whether Civale steadies the ship or springs another leak.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Aaron Civale, Chicago White Sox

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San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers, 5:10p

Summary

Milwaukee’s run-prevention machine versus a rookie with a plus changeup is the draw here: the Brewers’ defense-and-baserunning identity meets Carson Whisenhunt’s uncertainty. gNERD leans watchable because Milwaukee’s high tNERD props up a meh pNERD matchup.

Whisenhunt has the novelty factor: a recent call-up stepping in after Landen Roupp hit the IL, and he debuted July 28 with that vaunted changeup—but with scant big-league track record to anchor expectations. Milwaukee supplies most of the watchability: they’ve spent the season turning contact and legs into runs and outs, with public analysis crediting elite defense and baserunning for a league-best record, and ball-in-play conversion rates that squeeze value from every pitch. José Quintana brings reliability more than electricity; the veteran signed in March and has run a mid-4s FIP with modest whiffs, the profile of a contact manager who benefits from the gloves behind him. That dovetails with the numbers under the hood here: Milwaukee’s tNERD (baserunning and fielding) far outshines San Francisco’s, while both pNERDs are light. If you’re prioritizing, this is less about strikeout theater and more about the Brewers—led by Yelich, Contreras, and Turang—stress-testing a rookie amid a club built to win the margins.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Milwaukee Brewers

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

If you like contrasts, this one’s got them: Arizona’s top-5 offense by wRC+ meets a Reds club that wins more with gloves and guile than barrels. Add a control artist who lives in the zone (Littell) versus a live arm with better raw stuff (Nelson), and you’ve got a watchability middle-weight with sneaky upset juice.

The gNERD sits at 8.93—below today’s slate average—but the pNERD duo is slightly above today’s norm, and the matchup texture helps. Zack Littell just arrived in Cincinnati and promptly carved in his debut, and while he’s a strike-thrower to an extreme with a shiny walk rate, the long ball is the tax, which is dicey against a D-backs lineup that’s been among MLB’s best by wRC+. Cincinnati’s offense lags (low tNERD via weak barrels), but the Reds quietly upgraded the run prevention machine with Ke’Bryan Hayes at third. Ryne Nelson brings mid-90s heat and a league-average-ish xFIP, though recent starts have been bumpier and Arizona’s bullpen has sprung leaks lately—see the late collapse versus Colorado. If Littell keeps the ball in and the Reds can shorten the game, this climbs from background watch to worthy click.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Arizona Diamondbacks

Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

If you like balls in play more than punchouts, this one’s your speed: low pNERD arms, two capable bullpens, and a stark defense split should keep it tight and watchable. It’s contact theater—Cardinals’ elite gloves versus the Rays’ run game—with late innings likely doing the deciding.

At a middle-of-the-slate gNERD 8.69, the appeal leans far more tNERD than pNERD: Miles Mikolas’ vanishing whiffs and contact-forward approach meet Adrian Houser’s sinker-first, pitch-to-contact template. Mikolas has managed just five strikeouts over 14.2 August innings, while Houser’s results have outpaced his skills with an August xFIP that’s crept north, a nudge toward regression if balls find grass. The context favors St. Louis on balls in play: the Cardinals have graded out as one of MLB’s best defensive units, whereas Tampa Bay’s gloves have lagged, a contrast that matters when neither starter is missing bats. Both pens are strengths, so run prevention after the fifth should be crisp. Lineup-wise, Nolan Arenado remains shelved for St. Louis, and Tampa Bay is monitoring Yandy Díaz’s hamstring, tweaks that subtly tilt run expectancy.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay Rays

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

Adrian Houser, Tampa Bay Rays

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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

A rookie with upper-90s life who just threw seven scoreless against this very lineup meets a veteran tinkerer whose results are outpacing his peripherals. If you want offense and baserunning theatre, the Phillies supply it; if you want intrigue, Cade Cavalli’s comeback does the rest.

The gNERD sits at 8.31—below today’s average—because the pitching side is light (avg pNERD 3.82) and Washington’s tNERD is near the floor, but Philadelphia’s robust 8.21 tNERD keeps this watchable. Cavalli is the swing factor: tiny sample, but he’s shown real stuff (roughly 97–98 mph, 13% swinging strikes) and a FIP around the low-3s, and he just blanked the Phillies over seven in his first MLB win. Taijuan Walker has stabilized by leaning harder on a cutter and trimming walks, yet indicators (e.g., FIP in the ~5s) and an average-ish xFIP- suggest less bite than the ERA implies.

As for aesthetics, Philly’s bats and baserunning (see the strong tNERD components) raise the entertainment ceiling, while Washington’s leaky defense and shaky bullpen threaten late-inning entropy. If Cavalli carries over the whiffs he’s teased—and if Trea Turner’s hot month keeps humming—the matchup plays above its gNERD; otherwise, this tilts toward a competent Phillies machine grinding through a thin opponent.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

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Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

A low-ish gNERD game with a clear hook: can rebounding lefty Cade Povich keep an Astros lineup that just snapped a 31-inning scoreless slog in check, while Lance McCullers Jr. tries to look like more than a nostalgia play? If you like “prove-it” outings against a tweaked ballpark backdrop, this one has just enough bite to sample.

At 6.71, the gNERD sits below today’s slate average, and the reason is on the mound: Povich’s above-average pNERD (5.73) faces McCullers’ near-zero, a tidy summary of “developing arm versus rust and command.” The model’s read lines up with the skills: Povich’s August shows bat-missing life (32% K, xFIP ~3.2; his season away split carries a mid‑3s xFIP), which plays against an offense that’s looked oddly mortal. Meanwhile, McCullers only just returned from a 915‑day layoff in May and is being asked to go again right off a blister IL stint—plenty of story but not much recent precision.

There’s also the setting: Camden’s moved-in left-field wall has nudged right-handed power back toward normal, subtly boosting watchability for Astros bats if they square one. If it tilts late, note the contrast our numbers suggest—Astros’ pen as a relative strength—with Houston scrambling after a Hader injury and bringing in Craig Kimbrel to stabilize the endgame.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles

Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

This is the floor gNERD on the slate, but Braxton Ashcraft’s upper-90s fastball and hard slider give it a pulse. If you’re watching, you’re tuning in for the Pirates’ rookie audition, not a fireworks show from either lineup.

The NERD split says it all: a lopsided pNERD (Ashcraft 8.0 vs. Senzatela 0.4) propping up two low tNERDs. Ashcraft brings legit stuff—four-seam averaging ~97 with a 91–92 slider and a usable curve—which fits his solid run prevention so far and the pNERD-friendly xFIP- of 90. Expect strikes and velocity rather than whiff-a-palooza. Meanwhile, Senzatela’s profile is contact-forward to a fault: minimal swing-and-miss, a 125 xFIP-, and a season full of loud contact, even if he did flash five scoreless in his IL return last week. Offenses won’t rescue the watchability—Pittsburgh ranks last in HR and slugging and remains short a top-end athlete with Oneil Cruz on the concussion IL—so the intrigue is mostly Ashcraft vs. Colorado’s bats and whether Senzatela can steal soft contact. If you need confirmation this is that game: it’s Senzatela vs. Ashcraft, Rockies at Pirates, per multiple previews.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01 rating)

Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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