MLB: What to watch on August 23, 2025

• 23 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 10:05a

Summary

If you’re picking one game, pick this one: today’s highest gNERD (17.03) meets Yankees–Red Sox stakes and contrast—an ace lefty who misses bats versus a lineup built to dent scoreboards. It’s also a rubberneck special: Boston has seven straight over New York, owns the tiebreak, and just won 1-0 behind more crisp run prevention than pathos.

Boston’s top-10 tNERD rides barrels, gloves, and a plus bullpen, and the headliner is Garrett Crochet (pNERD 11.82), whose 96 mph heat and a 64 xFIP- say “good luck” to a power-first opponent; he held the Yankees to one run over 8.1 IP in June and has allowed two earned or fewer in 10 of his past 13 starts. New York’s watchability comes from thunder—this group just became the first team ever to hit nine homers in a game twice in one season—yet that same power has masked sloppier edges Boston’s defense and ‘pen can exploit. Will Warren (pNERD 5.24) is the wild card: his cartoonish sweeper now leads MLB in horizontal break and has recently steadied him (two ER or fewer in seven of eight), a pitch-design subplot worthy of your remote. Net it out: top-of-day gNERD, elite K stuff versus record-setting pop, and real playoff leverage—well above the 95th percentile of historic gNERDs—make this appointment viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Will Warren, New York Yankees

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San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p

Summary

Come for the Webb–Peralta rematch; stay to see if Milwaukee’s turbo-charged defense and baserunning can dent an ace-level xFIP. With a gNERD of 13.81—well above today’s average—this profiles as one of the day’s cleaner watches.

Logan Webb’s pNERD (9.72) matches the underlying skill: his away xFIP sits in the mid‑2s with elite K‑BB rates versus righties, the exact profile that turns contact into quiet outs. Freddy Peralta’s pNERD is middling by comparison, but he’s been a different animal at home, pairing a tiny walk rate with a 22%+ K‑BB% and a mid‑3s xFIP in Milwaukee. The subplot: Webb outdueled Peralta in April, a 4‑2 Giants win, so there’s recent chess-match familiarity here.

Team watchability tilts Brewers: their tNERD pops thanks to elite run prevention and go-go baserunning that’s been a real value add in 2025, while San Francisco’s tNERD lags with subpar barrels and a below‑average 94 wRC+ plus negative BsR. Health notes nudge lineups: Milwaukee is navigating absences for Rhys Hoskins and recently hobbled Jackson Chourio; the Giants list Matt Chapman day‑to‑day.

If you like precision pitching framed by athletic team play, this should reward your screen time more than most.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Milwaukee Brewers

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

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Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

George Kirby’s precision meets two lineups that actually hit now—clean strikes versus clean swings is a fine way to spend nine innings. With a gNERD of 11.44 and Kirby carrying the higher pNERD, this lands comfortably above today’s average for watchability.

Kirby is the aesthetic draw: 2025 features a 25% K rate, 5.9% walks and mid‑90s heat, with a home xFIP around 3.36 and a ruthless split vs righties (2.53 FIP/2.97 xFIP). Oakland’s righty power—Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker—has to thread that needle, though the A’s offense overall has been legit (105 wRC+, with Nicholas Kurtz and Langeliers both 25+ HR). Seattle counters with a deeper, improved lineup (team 109 wRC+) that can stress mistakes. That’s notable because Jeffrey Springs’ 2025 peripherals are merely fine: 4.72 FIP/4.63 xFIP with modest strikeouts, a profile that asks his changeup to do a lot of lifting. The probables are indeed Springs vs. Kirby, so the headline matchup is intact. Net: Kirby’s strike‑throwing plus two above‑average offenses gives you multiple paths to entertainment—either a tidy duel if Springs has feel, or the bats take over if he doesn’t.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Athletics

Seattle Mariners

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Prospect watch meets chaos: if Cade Horton’s blister cooperates, his mid-90s fastball and debut-season buzz run into an Angels club that can thump yet regularly hands runs back with the glove. At a gNERD 11.36 — above today’s slate average — this has real upside if Horton actually takes the ball.

Cubs-side watchability is driven by a top-tier tNERD: they run, square balls up, and flash leather — with Pete Crow-Armstrong grading as an elite center-field show all by himself — while Horton brings starter-quality velocity and age-fueled intrigue, even after exiting his last start with a blister that’s reportedly a go/no-go decision. The Angels counter with loud barrels and real homer power, but an early-season portrait of leaky run prevention — too many walks, too few strikeouts, and subpar team defense — still shadows them, which lines up with their bottom-tier tNERD here. Victor Mederos, a lightly used arm newly in the rotation, has been hittable and walk-prone in limited August work, making this a favorable entertainment script for Chicago’s bats if Horton gives them a lead to protect.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Los Angeles Angels

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

Victor Mederos, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

This one is a team-driven watch, not a pitcher’s duel: a mid-high gNERD 10.71 built on Toronto’s strong tNERD taking aim at a scrappy, callup-heavy Miami. After Shane Bieber’s sparkling Jays debut set the series tone and Miami’s kids (Javier Sanoja, Maximo Acosta) provided the counterpunch, there’s just enough plot to keep the remote holstered. Toronto’s tNERD (8.03) is buoyed by real production—plus batting runs and elite fielding—so even with a merely average-on-paper José Berríos (pNERD 2.37; xFIP- 106), the watchability tilt comes from the lineup and gloves more than swing-and-miss. On the other side, Janson Junk (pNERD 4.88; xFIP- 96) doesn’t wow radar guns but pounds the zone and has quietly given Miami competitive starts; the Marlins are 8-3 when he takes the ball, which helps paper over a thinner bullpen. If you’re ranking today’s slate, this sits a touch above the day’s average gNERD and around the historic median-plus: not appointment TV, but plenty to like if you enjoy contrast—Toronto’s efficient, defense-forward machine against Miami’s evolving core and Junk’s strike-throwing approach.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Miami Marlins

José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

NL West deadlock, power vs. puzzle: Glasnow’s whiffs meet a newly acquired, still-mysterious Nestor Cortes. If you like star bats and elite bullpens deciding things late, this one’s worth your remote.

The gNERD sits at 10.32—slightly above today’s average—and it’s built on strong team watchability (both tNERDs ~7.6) with a lopsided pNERD: Glasnow 6.28 vs. Cortes at -0.78. Glasnow’s recent form plays: he just punched out eight Padres over five frames and has three straight August starts of two runs or fewer, with 72 Ks in 57.2 IP since returning, i.e., strikeout TV. The Padres made it a first-place tie last game and showcased how they actually want this to go: Jason Adam to Mason Miller to Robert Suarez, who locked down his MLB-leading 34th save. Expect a quick hook if Cortes wobbles.

For offense-driven drama, the Dodgers bring top-tier barrel rate and batting runs, plus Shohei Ohtani’s 44-homer star power; San Diego counters with Manny Machado anchoring contact and timely thump. That’s plenty of action around the margins even if Cortes is more curiosity than stopper right now.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Nestor Cortes, San Diego Padres

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Lineup-watch, not ace-watch: the Mets’ bats (barrels and baserunning) headline against a Riley-less Braves club jury‑rigging its rotation. It’s also a science project—ex‑closer Clay Holmes’ starter makeover meets freshly claimed Cal Quantrill in an emergency debut.

With a gNERD of 9.94, this sits around the middle of today’s slate, and the shape is clear: offense and chaos, not whiffs. The Mets own a high tNERD (11.22) driven by a strong barrel rate, positive baserunning, and a capable bullpen, while Atlanta’s tNERD (3.97) lags with subpar baserunning and bullpen marks—fertile ground for late‑inning weirdness. Holmes’ pNERD (2.95) and xFIP‑ (101) say “near‑average run prevention with limited swing‑and‑miss,” which tracks for a sinker-heavy convert still settling into a starter’s workload.

Atlanta’s intrigue is mostly transactional. Quantrill was just waived in, projects as a back‑end arm (pNERD 1.74; xFIP‑ 112), and should slot in immediately with the rotation reshuffled; expectations are modest, but innings are the point. The Braves also lost Austin Riley for the season after core surgery, thinning a lineup already leaning on role players. Put simply: if you tune in, you’re betting on Mets contact quality versus a patched Braves staff—and on whether Holmes’ new role holds up longer than Quantrill’s audition.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

Cal Quantrill, Atlanta Braves

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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers, 3:10p

Summary

Detroit brings the fireworks, the starters bring the flint. First-place Tigers are rolling again, and Vinnie Pasquantino just homered in five straight, so the bats provide the plot while a low-pNERD duel keeps the suspense mortal.

With a gNERD of 9.87, this sits a notch below today’s slate average (10.18), and the pitchers (avg pNERD 3.30) won’t carry the spectacle. Wacha has been quietly stingy of late—recent turns with one run allowed—and his 2025 run prevention (FIP ~3.75) outpaces the shakier xFIP (~4.40), i.e., more pitchability than whiffs. Detroit’s side is the variable: Paddack was imported to patch Reese Olson’s injury hole, owns a season FIP around 4.39, and oscillates between gems and blowups—see eight earned in his last start after a neat debut stretch.

The tNERD split tilts the watchability toward Detroit’s lineup: extra barrels, real baserunning, and Riley Greene thumping No. 30 last night, though the bullpen isn’t bulletproof. Kansas City’s offense lags, but a big positive “Luck” component and a solid pen hint at game-state chaos if it’s close late. If you’re choosing by flavor: this is less a clinic than a stress test—Tigers’ thump and Paddack’s volatility versus Wacha’s contact craft and Pasquantino’s heater.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Chris Paddack, Detroit Tigers

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Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 5:10p

Summary

A watchability two‑step: Andrew Abbott’s legit strikeout bump meets Nabil Crismatt’s changeup‑heavy cameo, with a potent D‑backs lineup and a shaky home bullpen guaranteeing action late. And after Arizona walked it off and welcomed Gabriel Moreno back with a homer, there’s fresh juice in the building.

On the numbers, a 9.32 gNERD is a tick below today’s slate average, but the ingredients are better than the composite. Abbott’s pNERD (4.95) is near the median, yet his year‑over‑year strikeout rate leap into the 30% range gives him real bat‑missing credibility even without big velocity, making his starts play up on TV. Crismatt’s pNERD is 0.00 only because the model lacks MLB sample; he’s a short‑leash starter built around a fading‑speed cambio, which likely hands this game to Arizona’s bullpen early. That’s fertile chaos: the D‑backs’ relief group has graded in the bottom quarter by FIP, while their lineup has been top‑five by wRC+, a split that invites late swings. Cincinnati’s light tNERD (2.90) reflects a thin bat/ball profile, but their baserunning and Abbott’s efficiency keep them sticky in close games. Arizona’s recent walk‑off, plus Moreno’s return, adds storyline lift to an otherwise “solid‑but‑not‑top” gNERD watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Arizona Diamondbacks

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Nabil Crismatt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

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Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers, 4:05p

Summary

Prospect sizzle vs. contact craft: Jack Leiter’s 97 and new sinker/change meet Logan Allen’s brisk, pitch-to-contact lefty pace — a style clash that could move quickly. With Texas down Evan Carter and Marcus Semien’s foot still a question, runs won’t come easy, which is part of the appeal. gNERD sits at 8.56 — below today’s average — because the pNERDs are light; neither starter screams dominance. Leiter’s stuff is loud, but the indicators are middling (roughly 4.40 FIP/4.62 xFIP), and his last turn was a short, three-runs-in-3.2-innings stumble; the intrigue is whether the revamped arsenal holds up against a contact-leaning lineup. Allen counters with more modest bat-missing but comparable estimators (about 4.34 FIP/4.41 xFIP) and a snappy tempo that keeps the ball in play and the game watchable. The team-side pull comes from Cleveland’s defense/baserunning and a bullpen that’s been top-tier by FIP, versus a Rangers offense that’s been below average lately — meaning late leverage could tilt toward the visitors. Also, yes, Leiter vs. José Ramírez and Corey Seager vs. Allen are worthwhile individual chess matches even if the overall watchability is mid-tier.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Texas Rangers

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Cristian Javier’s post–Tommy John reboot meets Dean Kremer, who just spun seven scoreless with seven strikeouts against this very lineup; intrigue beats pure stuff here. Baltimore is doing this without Adley Rutschman, now back on the IL, so rookie Samuel Basallo and a wobbly bullpen become the swing factors rather than star power.

By the numbers, this sits below today’s average gNERD, and the modest pitcher/two middling team NERDs say “background TV”—unless you’re curious about Javier 2.0. He’s altered the mix (new sinker, less four-seam) and, in a tiny sample, is more control-first than bat-missing; the FIP/xFIP trail his headline line, and his last outing ended early with an illness and a small velo dip. Kremer’s pNERD reflects solid strikes more than whiffs, but the matchup context matters: he blanked Houston in that 12–0 game, while Javier exited after three. Our model likes Houston’s bullpen relative to Baltimore’s, and the series opener reinforced why: the Orioles’ relief leaked runs while Houston held on. Baltimore’s recent near-perfect-game buzz is on hold anyway—Brandon Young hit the IL—and Jordan Westburg joined him, thinning both upside and depth. If you watch, watch for contact, traffic, and whether Javier’s new shape holds against a lineup that’s recently made noise.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Prospect intrigue meets patience test: a middling gNERD gets a lift if, as multiple outlets indicate, Mick Abel takes the ball for Minnesota opposite a resurgent Davis Martin. The White Sox’s offense drags the watchability, but a likely rookie cameo and some recent fireworks nudge this above “skip.”

Chicago rolls with Martin, who just logged six scoreless with eight groundouts in Kansas City, the latest hint that his current form outpaces league-average peripherals flagged by pNERD. If he keeps living in the zone with the cutter/change, this could be tidy rather than noisy. Minnesota’s starter is the swing factor: signs point to Abel, newly acquired in the Jhoan Duran deal and fresh off strong Triple-A work after debuting earlier this year, which adds novelty even if pNERD can’t price him yet. The Twins’ bullpen has been the comparatively entertaining part of their roster and just slammed the door with Justin Topa getting the final five outs last game, a nice fit with the positive tNERD bullpen component.

As for the bats, Minnesota has been uneven but Royce Lewis’s grand slam reminded us there’s thump; the Sox remain a low-wRC+ bunch despite cameos from Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel, which explains the subpar tNERD. Expect competence more than chaos—unless the kid makes it weird.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

Philadelphia’s lineup-and-legs machine versus a contact-prone Mitchell Parker screams “runs,” while Aaron Nola’s second start back from a long IL stint determines whether this is watchable pitching or pure offense. Add the subplot of Zack Wheeler’s blood-clot absence, and Nola’s outing suddenly feels weight-bearing for an NL East leader.

With a gNERD of 7.61 (below today’s average), the watchability lift comes from the Phillies’ strong 8.43 tNERD—plus top-tier baserunning—against a Nationals club whose tNERD is 0.83 and whose fielding and bullpen grade poorly. On the mound, Nola’s pNERD (4.80) and xFIP- of 89 suggest he’s better than last week’s ragged return, when Washington reached him for six in 2.1 innings after his ankle/rib layoff; Saturday offers a clean read on whether his command normalizes. Opposite him, Parker’s 1.16 pNERD and 126 xFIP- fit the scouting-by-math: few whiffs and a slower pace that can snowball against an aggressive order. Their rematch comes days after both were chased early in the same game. Washington just nicked the opener 5-4 thanks to Dylan Crews and Daylen Lile heroics, so the kids have fresh credibility if this turns late and close.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Today’s gNERD floor comes with one hook: Mike Burrows’ rookie upside paired with the Pirates’ run‑prevention chops. Tune for his mid‑90s fastball and brisk pace against a Rockies lineup that grades poorly by batting runs, and to see whether Kyle Freeland’s FIP‑over‑ERA gap finally closes. Burrows (pNERD 6.7) has ridden the usual rookie turbulence, but he’s rebounded well and Pittsburgh is managing his workload after Tommy John. The Pirates just blanked Colorado 9‑0, with fellow kids Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler starring—Chandler even logged a scoreless four‑inning save in his debut—useful context for a staff that our inputs already like. With Oneil Cruz on the concussion IL, the Pirates’ offense is thinner, which keeps the ceiling modest. Freeland (pNERD 3.8) works quickly and fills the zone; his 2025 FIP has lived in the mid‑4s while the ERA sits north of five, hinting at better skill than results. Net: gNERD 6.57 says “background game,” but a live rookie arm and competent run prevention give it a mild upgrade.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01 rating)

Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Mike Burrows, Pittsburgh Pirates

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