MLB: What to watch on August 24, 2025

• 24 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

Top of today’s watchability board and comfortably above the historical median, this Dodgers–Padres tilt blends an ace-level duel with late-inning theater. It’s Yamamoto’s refined whiffs and command against Pivetta’s Padres reinvention, with San Diego’s All-Star bullpen lurking to decide it.

The gNERD is inflated by strong pNERDs on both sides, headlined by Yoshinobu Yamamoto (xFIP- 77; plus velo), whose year-two surge has quieted last season’s shoulder concerns and earned him a 2025 All-Star nod; the results have matched the skills. Nick Pivetta isn’t just “steady”—he’s been a legitimate Petco problem, carrying top-10 run prevention and excellent home splits after an offseason move to San Diego and a blistering start that rewrote franchise debut records.

Team watchability holds up: the Dodgers bring barrels and runs even when shorthanded, with recent damage from Freeman and Pages while Shohei Ohtani briefly sat after a comebacker. The Padres’ tNERD is buoyed by a bullpen that’s both deep and decorated—three All-Star relievers (Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon) and consistent late-game run prevention make any tight score worth sticking around for.

If you like premium starting stuff giving way to matchup-heavy chess in the seventh and beyond, this is the game—high skill on the mound, competent bats, and real stakes without the slog.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

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Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

Ace-caliber Logan Gilbert (pNERD 10.1; xFIP- 63) tries to erase his brief Philly misadventure against a red‑hot Jacob Lopez in a game that grades near the top of today’s slate (gNERD 13.96). Seattle’s lineup has lived on solo shots in this series, while Oakland’s bats and a big positive “Luck” tailwind make the underdog genuinely watchable.

Gilbert opened the year as Seattle’s chosen No. 1 and still brings premium strike‑throwing and 95+ heat, even after a two‑inning stumble his last time out; the appeal here is seeing whether his elite indicators reassert against an A’s order that punishes mistakes. Lopez, meanwhile, has been carving: four straight August wins with 32 K, 3 BB, and just two earned over 25.2 innings, the profile of a mid‑90s xFIP- arm (91) that can hang with anyone for a while.

Seattle’s offense has been oddly all‑or‑nothing this set—three hits yesterday and all four of their runs across the first two games via solo homers—so any early leverage belongs to the starters. Add that the Mariners are chasing the Astros, and the stakes nudge up.

High pNERD vs. sturdy pNERD plus an above‑average A’s tNERD (and sizable Luck bump) is why this rates near the top for watchability.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Athletics

Seattle Mariners

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

Power vs. polish: Eury Pérez’s upper‑90s heat meets Kevin Gausman’s splitter in one of the day’s top watchability matchups. Toronto’s surging, glove-forward roster and a thinned Marlins lineup lift the floor, while shaky bullpens keep the late‑inning chaos potential high.

At gNERD 13.02, this sits near the top of today’s slate and above the historical 75th percentile, and the pitching carries real intrigue. Gausman has stabilized with a 2.61 ERA and 38:8 K:BB since the break, and his season indicators (1.06 WHIP; 3.67 FIP) back the “fewer freebies, less loud contact” vibe. Pérez, 22, is back to throwing 97–98 mph and running up whiffs; opponents have hit just .178 off him this year, and his run prevention has tracked with a low‑3s FIP. Toronto’s bats have been lively—Bo Bichette starred in the previous game—and that plays with the Jays’ strong fielding profile in NERD. Miami is down All‑Star Kyle Stowers (oblique), thinning an already young lineup. If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returns from day‑to‑day hamstring inflammation, that’s another lift; if not, the Jays have still scored in bunches lately. Add in recent bullpen hiccups on both sides, and you’ve got high‑end stuff with real volatility—prime gNERD viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Miami Marlins

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 4:10p

Summary

Rivalry heat with real teeth: a top‑tier gNERD 12.72 because Boston’s run‑prevention machine meets New York’s power and wobbly relief. Carlos Rodón’s sharpened 2025 peripherals square off with deadline pickup Dustin May, giving this one equal parts polish and volatility. Probables are Rodón vs. May, and the matchup fits: Rodón’s regained bite shows up in the numbers (roughly 3.9 FIP and 3.8 xFIP across 24 starts), which aligns with a sturdier‑than‑flash pNERD of 5.24. May’s 3.12 pNERD flags risk, but Boston didn’t trade for a mirage—he just punched out eight over six scoreless against Houston, and the mid‑90s life is intact when his delivery behaves. The watchability edge comes more from the teams than the starters: the Red Sox rate highly for barrels, baserunning, fielding, and a bullpen that tends to land the dismount, while the Yankees bring elite thump but relief‑inning heartburn—recently underscored by that lopsided loss with a calamitous ninth. With both clubs sporting strong tNERDs and actual stakes, this is one of today’s better bets for tension late; if it’s tight, keep an eye on the Yankees’ bullpen door.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Dustin May, Boston Red Sox

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 10:35a

Summary

A barrel-happy Mets lineup meets an injury-thinned Braves staff, with above-average David Peterson squaring off against a volatile, quick-working Bryce Elder—translation: plenty to watch, and probably plenty to hit. At a gNERD 12.64—near the top of today’s slate and above the historical 75th percentile—this leans bat-forward entertainment with a modest pitching edge to New York.

The Mets’ hefty tNERD (11.76) is powered by elite barrel rate, plus baserunning, a sturdier bullpen than Atlanta’s, and a sizable positive “luck” signal that hints at upside. Peterson’s pNERD (5.67) is anchored by an 88 xFIP- and he’s fresh off eight innings with 10 strikeouts, though the Braves did cuff him for six in 3 1/3 earlier this month. Elder (pNERD 4.49; 102 xFIP-) works briskly but brings home-run risk and swing-to-swing instability; he held the Mets to three over seven, then yielded eight to Chicago in his last turn. Atlanta’s lineup is lighter without Austin Riley, who underwent season-ending core surgery this week. Meanwhile, New York just launched six homers at Truist, a tidy match with its barrel profile and Elder’s contact-heavy game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

David Peterson, New York Mets

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

If Milwaukee hands the ball to Brandon Woodruff, this turns into premium coffee: Robbie Ray’s revived four-seamer with big ride meets a Brewers outfit that wins on speed, gloves, and depth. Even if the Brewers stick with TBD, the gNERD sits well above today’s average, and Ray’s recent form alone gives this a sturdy baseline of watchability.

The model tilts upward because tNERD loves Milwaukee’s style — they run relentlessly (remember the nine-steal game, including six in one inning) and convert that pressure into action, while the defense grades as a recurring strength behind Brice Turang and friends; that’s catnip for neutrals. Ray brings an average-ish pNERD here but is trending nicely (24:5 K:BB over his last 25.2 innings), and his elevated heater with above-average carry is a fun watch against a lineup that forces contact and chaos. The open question is Milwaukee’s starter — unannounced as of the morning; if it is Woodruff, the pitching half gets a notable bump.

On the narrative front, the Giants just snapped a skid and got Matt Chapman back, while the Brewers are banged up (SS Joey Ortiz to the IL) but still atop the league pecking order. Net: strong gNERD, a watchable ace-ish lefty, elite team aesthetics — that’s appointment enough.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Milwaukee Brewers

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers, 10:40a

Summary

A quietly high-stakes watch: a first-place Tigers club riding five straight and Jack Flaherty fresh off 7 scoreless/9 K meets a Royals team trying to dodge the broom. Kansas City isn’t as bad as recent results look, and Seth Lugo’s command-and-shape approach can still turn this into appointment background noise.

At 11.15, this gNERD sits above today’s average, driven by a big tNERD edge for Detroit (barrels, baserunning, defense) versus KC’s softer contact but sturdy pen—and KC’s sizable positive Luck flag hints they’ve under-shot their skill. Detroit’s lineup is legitimately improved in 2025, and they pressure you with extra bases even without stealing; that combo helps the watchability pop. Flaherty owns the pNERD advantage (6.18), supported by a quality xFIP-type profile and that latest seven-inning gem; Lugo’s lower pNERD (3.07) reflects fewer whiffs but a brisk pace and enough kitchen-sink to keep bats honest. If you like micro-matchups, Spencer Torkelson has already taken Lugo deep at Comerica this year, while Bobby Witt Jr. just logged three hits and a homer to remind everyone where the star power lives. Detroit’s bullpen has wobbled overall, but Will Vest slammed the door last game—good news for late-inning tension, less so for KC’s comeback odds.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays, 9:10a

Summary

Outdoor Rays baseball at Steinbrenner Field plus Pepiot vs. Liberatore gives this above‑average gNERD tilt some extra juice. Add Carson Williams’ storybook debut homer and a speed‑happy Rays lineup versus the Cardinals’ elite gloves, and you’ve got a tidy style contrast worth a channel flip.

With a gNERD of 11.04 (above today’s average), the watchability starts on the mound: Ryan Pepiot’s pNERD 6.20 and mid‑90s velocity pair with estimators in the low‑4s (roughly 4.4 FIP), the classic “stuff > results” Rays starter profile. Matthew Liberatore’s pNERD 4.54 trails, but his 2025 shows legitimate gains under the hood (3.69 FIP, 4.24 xFIP) even if the fastball still needs shepherding. The team components back the premise: Tampa Bay’s tNERD leans on baserunning and a capable bullpen, exactly the kind of traits that play in this smaller spring facility, while St. Louis brings one of MLB’s top OAA groups and a sturdy pen that can keep a close game watchable late. Offensively, Williams’ promotion and instant impact injects some novelty for the Rays, while the Cardinals likely go without leadoff engine Brendan Donovan (groin IL), softening their on‑base floor. Net: a near‑top‑quartile gNERD by today’s standards, two starters with interesting—but different—indicator sets, and fresh Rays storylines in an unusual home park.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay Rays

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

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Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Pitching shapes the watchability here: Gavin Williams’ horsepower meets Merrill Kelly’s metronome, with Cleveland’s run-prevention machine poised to decide things if the bats stay quiet. Texas is down Marcus Semien and Kelly just left his prior start with hamstring cramps, so every extra baserunner looms large.

With a gNERD of 10.76, this sits a tick above today’s average, driven more by run prevention than fireworks. Williams’ pNERD edge (5.44) is about stuff—96.6 mph and decent whiffs—tempered by spotty strikes, while Kelly’s (5.05) leans on efficiency and a better xFIP- (92) than flash; he’s a deadline add making his first career start against Cleveland. Cleveland’s tNERD lead (6.05 vs 4.98) reflects why: elite bullpen/defense/baserunning (+1.05/+0.84/+0.90 components) can tilt a tight game late. Texas counters with sure-handed fielding (+0.80) but a lineup that’s been near the bottom of MLB by wRC+ and OBP—issues not helped by Semien’s IL stint.

Translation: expect a tidy, low-scoring watch where sequencing and late-inning choices matter. Kelly’s arrival raised the Rangers’ rotation floor, but Cleveland’s bullpen edge and Williams’ raw stuff give this a pleasing “run on the margins” vibe rather than a slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Texas Rangers

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

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Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:05a

Summary

Come for the Paul Skenes show against baseball’s least dangerous lineup; stay for the chaos of a debuting Rockie trying to survive PNC. Colorado is skipping Triple‑A and tossing McCade Brown straight into his first MLB start.

The gNERD sits at 9.61—mid‑pack today—because the teams drag it down (average tNERD 1.57), but Skenes’ pNERD 11.09 turns this into appointment viewing. His arsenal still hums at 98.2 mph with elite shape, and Pittsburgh has hinted at dialing back his workload down the stretch, so don’t expect a marathon. The matchup is friendly: the Pirates’ bats are bottom‑of‑the‑league by runs, power, and OPS, which is why even a merely competent start from Skenes often looks dominant in the box score.

Brown is legitimately intriguing—TJ in 2023, big strikeout rates in High‑A/Double‑A this year, but he hasn’t worked past 5⅔ and arrives because Colorado just cut Austin Gomber. Expect a quick hook into a rough bullpen. One late‑game wrinkle: the Pirates weakened their relief corps at the deadline by trading David Bednar and Caleb Ferguson, and results have sagged since. If Skenes exits early, the door cracks open.

Net: watch for Skenes’ precision and velocity; watch to see whether Brown’s raw stuff plays before attrition takes over.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01 rating)

Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

McCade Brown, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

Kyle Hendricks draws his old team with a pitch-to-contact blueprint that should shove every ball in play toward Chicago’s slick gloves — and Los Angeles’ not-so-slick ones. With Jameson Taillon back and throwing strikes, plus the Cubs’ lineup freshly detonated in Anaheim, this is more stress test than strikeout show.

At a gNERD of 8.93, this sits below today’s average largely because the pNERD pairing (Taillon 4.32, Hendricks 2.05) tilts modest; the watchability lift comes from a high-Cubs/low-Angels tNERD split. Taillon’s recent return delivered six efficient innings with his usual strike-throwing tempo, which plays well behind Chicago’s top-tier fielding and active baserunning. Cubs bats just torched the Angels — Kyle Tucker went double-dinger and Reese McGuire grand-slammed — a reminder that Chicago’s barrel rate travels.

Storyline bonus points: Hendricks faces the franchise he fronted for a decade, now tasked with navigating Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and friends while leaning on soft stuff and command. The Angels can still punish mistakes (hello, Jo Adell), but a leaky pen and a rough recent run of homers allowed make late innings feel longer than they should. Mike Trout is back in the mix, though his 22-game on-base streak was snapped last night, a tidy summary of LAA’s volatility.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Los Angeles Angels

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

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Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

This grades out as a mid-tier watch: a below‑average gNERD (8.38) buoyed by Arizona’s lively offense and the name‑brand intrigue of Zac Gallen vs. Brady Singer. If you like brisk innings with a chance of late bullpen chaos, clear a modest window.

Singer’s pNERD is slightly above today’s pitching median and he works quickly, with league‑average peripherals (xFIP‑ 104) that fit a contact‑forward profile; he’s fresh off six strong in Anaheim, which tracks with the “competent, not dominant” label. Gallen’s pNERD is similarly ordinary (xFIP‑ 102), and a recent home‑run leak (career‑high 26 allowed) keeps the floor wobbly even when the stuff flashes. The NERD components point to the watchable side being Arizona’s lineup and athleticism (positive batting, baserunning, and fielding inputs), and that’s matched by the current storyline: the D‑backs just thumped Cincinnati 10–1 and have their regular catcher, Gabriel Moreno, back after two months, giving the order more depth. The counterweight is Arizona’s bullpen, which has been one of MLB’s shakiest this year, a recipe for volatility if this stays close late. Confirmed probables: Singer vs. Gallen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Arizona Diamondbacks

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:35a

Summary

Ranger Suárez’s contact-killing efficiency against a low-miss Jake Irvin makes this more matchup watch than duel. With Zack Wheeler shelved for the season, every Suárez turn doubles as a stress test for Philly’s October plans.

The gNERD sits at 8.13—below today’s average—but it’s buoyed by a beefy Phillies tNERD (8.52) and a pNERD edge for Suárez (5.27 vs. 1.64). Under the hood, Suárez’s profile plays: roughly a 3.0 FIP and 3.5 xFIP with a healthy K-BB rate, while Irvin arrives with road marks around 5.5 FIP/4.6 xFIP and limited whiffs—exactly the sort of contact this lineup punishes. Philadelphia’s baserunning chops (and general on-base churn) add entertainment value if they start stringing balls into the gaps, and the ninth now comes pre-shortened thanks to deadline import Jhoan Duran. For Washington, the hook is the kids: CJ Abrams, James Wood, Brady House, and Dylan Crews are here, bringing swing speed and curiosity even if the team-level tNERD (0.83) and defense won’t help Irvin much. They were all on the card in this series. Overall: not a top-tier watch, but a tidy check-in on a contender adjusting on the fly behind a clear favorite on the mound.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Trevor Rogers is the draw; Houston’s bats are the wildcard. This is a below-the-marquee watch driven by a crisp lefty versus a lineup that just spent a series turning mistakes into souvenirs.

At a gNERD of 7.88 (below today’s average), the tilt leans on Rogers’ strong pNERD (7.92) and skills profile—an xFIP- of 83 with above-average strike rate and brisk pace—against an Astros offense that’s been punishing anything elevated. Baltimore’s lefty comes in after an early-year knee scare but recent form and an 8-K outing on Aug. 1 suggest he’s very much intact. Houston, meanwhile, has thumped its way through the series—three first-inning homers and a late Walker dagger were the latest exhibits—so contact quality will decide how long Rogers’ efficiency holds. On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti’s pNERD (0.14) and rough xFIP- (134) hint at traffic; if he’s forced out early, Houston’s better bullpen (positive tNERD component) becomes the feature while Baltimore’s weaker pen and defense dim the undercard. A preview note that Rogers has logged one-run starts deep into games lately only sharpens the contrast. Verdict: not premium, but compelling for Rogers vs. a loud lineup with seventh-inning plot-twist potential.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

This is today’s gNERD floor special, but curiosity has a pulse: Taj Bradley’s Twins debut after the deadline swap for Griffin Jax meets Yoendrys Gómez’s “can he stick as a starter?” audition. If pitching-development experiments are your thing, keep a window open; otherwise, you won’t miss art. Bradley-vs.-Gómez is a lopsided pNERD (5.26 vs. -1.25) inside a low-average tNERD matchup, which is why this game’s 5.50 gNERD sits at the bottom of today’s slate. Bradley brings mid‑90s juice and age-based upside, with underlying results that are fine-but-not-elite (xFIP living in the low‑4s and notably better vs. righties), and the fresh‑uniform novelty helps. Gómez has a thin track record but was stretched out and popped in his first start (5 IP, 7 K vs. DET) and later beat ATL, so there’s at least variance-based intrigue. The Twins’ biggest entertainment feature is actually the bullpen (a strength by our inputs), while Chicago’s offense/defense lag. The series has already produced a Royce Lewis grand slam and Colson Montgomery’s first career grand slam, so a bat‑gets‑hot subplot is alive even if the overall watchability is not.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Yoendrys Gómez, Chicago White Sox

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