MLB: What to watch on August 25, 2025

• 25 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Detroit Tigers @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

It’s Skubal Day, and the gNERD agrees: this is the one you make time for. A slate-topping 17.59 comes from pairing an elite pNERD for Tarik Skubal with two above‑average tNERDs in a compact, sold‑out Sacramento setting.

Skubal has leveled up from his Cy season, leading qualified starters in Stuff+ and riding a four‑seam/change/sinker mix that misses bats and limits damage; his 2025 line features elite strikeout and walk rates to match. He just authored seven scoreless with 10 K and 25 whiffs against Houston, the kind of bully-ball that pNERD was built to flag. On the other side, J.T. Ginn’s sinker‑slider profile is fun in theory and streaky in practice: he’s punched out righties in bunches but has been far shakier versus lefties, especially at home, a split that tilts toward Detroit’s left‑handed thump. Statcast agrees on the shape of the risk: the slider gets whiffs but, when contacted, has played loud; the sinker invites contact that isn’t always soft.

Add Detroit’s above‑average barrels and aggressive baserunning to the Skubal show, and you’ve got watchable innings even when the bats cool. The Athletics’ big positive “luck” only sweetens the potential for noisy regression.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Athletics

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

This one earns a premium slot because it’s high-skill meets high-stakes: Cristopher Sánchez’s legitimately plus peripherals take on a thumping Mets lineup, while Kodai Senga brings name recognition but iffier indicators. With Zack Wheeler shelved for the year, the Phillies’ rotation depth is suddenly the story within the story.

gNERD 15.93 is propelled by strong tNERDs on both sides, and Sánchez’s pNERD (9.48) is the real headline: his 2025 FIP/xFIP have sat in the mid-2s with stout K-BB splits against both lefties and righties, and since June he’s led qualified starters in run prevention, which passes the smell test for watchability. Senga’s results have been good on the surface, but under the hood at Citi Field he’s pairing a walk rate north of 11% with an xFIP around 4.2, and lefties have drawn free passes at an even higher clip, giving Philadelphia’s left-handed thump real leverage. Add in a divisional race that just tightened because of Wheeler’s absence, and you’ve got quality plus consequence.

Translation: tune in for Sánchez’s sequencing and ground-ball craft against a lineup that punishes mistakes, then stick around to see whether Senga’s ghost fork can mask the control risk long enough to get through the Phillies’ lefties.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

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Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

A high‑octane ace versus a star‑powered lineup, plus a post‑TJ wild card, makes this a premium watch. With a gNERD of 14.75—well above today’s average and near the top historically—there’s real substance behind the sizzle.

Hunter Greene’s big pNERD tracks with the stuff: 99–100 mph heat, a souped‑up slider, and sharper strike‑throwing, all translating to underlying run prevention (3.42 FIP) rather than just a shiny line. He also returned from the IL two weeks ago with six scoreless, looking every bit the headliner again. The Dodgers supply the tNERD backbone: a top‑tier offense and deep pen, lately flexed by Shohei Ohtani’s 45th homer and Freddie Freeman’s multi‑HR game as they head home tied atop the NL West. Emmet Sheehan adds intrigue; 13 months off Tommy John, he’s back in a six‑man setup and has been serviceable with a solid K:BB since activation.

NERD says the watch here is Greene’s whiffs versus LA’s patience and damage; Cincinnati’s low tNERD offense means his margin is thin, and the Dodgers’ bullpen advantage can tilt late. If you like velocity, swing‑and‑miss, and a lineup capable of punishing any mistake, this one earns your screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Brandon Woodruff’s remodeled fastball (the four-seamer owns the best whiff rate among starters) meets a Diamondbacks lineup running a 111 wRC+, with Milwaukee’s baserunning chaos lurking on every pitch. A gNERD of 13.03 puts this in today’s upper tier and above the historic 75th percentile.

Woodruff’s velocity is down to ~93, but the cutter/fastball tweak is still shredding bats, which tracks with his strong pNERD; he’s the draw on the mound. Eduardo Rodríguez brings the other side of the contrast: a modest pNERD (2.66) driven by a below-average xFIP- (107) and muted whiffs, so Arizona’s watchability leans more on the bats than the starter. The Brewers’ big tNERD (9.72) is built on havoc and prevention—138 steals, +13.6 BsR, and hefty team defense—befitting a club that just ripped a 14-game win streak; that style tends to keep every single in motion. Arizona’s tNERD (5.76) reflects real thump (Perdomo/Carroll/Marte) but a thinned bullpen—Kevin Ginkel on the 60-day IL and Ryan Thompson only now tracking back—can make late innings swingy. If you’re prioritizing pitching craft plus action on the bases, and a live chance of bullpen drama, Woodruff vs. Rodríguez is your play; probables are confirmed.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

If you like ace-versus-flamethrower with a side of narrative, this is your watch: Jacob deGrom’s fully operational Death Star meets José Soriano’s upper-90s sinker, and the gNERD knows it. Pitching drives the ticket here (average pNERD 9.11), pushing a gNERD of 12.36—well above today’s average and near the top quarter historically.

DeGrom is back to being DeGrom: an All-Star again in 2025 with a run of 14 straight starts of 5+ innings and ≤2 runs allowed, and he’s been especially stingy at Globe Life (6–3, 2.11 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 12 home starts). Soriano returns to the rotation after a brief paternity/restricted-list stint and just held Texas to one run with seven strikeouts in their late-July meeting, a tidy reminder of why his pNERD is comfortably above average.

The teams themselves won’t sell you—Angels’ defense/bullpen sag, Rangers’ bats have underwhelmed—but Texas brings plus baserunning/fielding to keep the ball in motion, and deGrom’s command/velo duel nicely with Soriano’s pace and heat. The bet is simple: watch for whiffs, weak contact, and a few high-leverage Rangers dashes rather than a slugfest. If you prioritize elite run prevention over fireworks, this one belongs high on your list.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Hard-throwing rookie vs. contact-management upstart: Cam Schlittler’s upper-90s fastball and breaker meet Brad Lord’s sinker/4-seamer cocktail that kills barrels and piles grounders. With a gNERD of 12.10—above today’s average and just into the historic upper quartile—this rates as a real watch.

Schlittler (pNERD 8.03) just carried a perfect game into the seventh and punched out eight over 6.2 scoreless, part of a month in which he’s run a 2.08 ERA while showing the Yankees’ hardest heaters of 2025; that’s precisely the power-stuff upside pNERD is flagging. On the other side, Lord (pNERD 6.86) has shifted from multi-inning weapon to sturdy starter: roughly 95 with extreme arm-side run, a near-50% ground-ball rate, FIP around 3.6, and a barrel rate well above average—fewer whiffs, more damage control, which suits Yankee Stadium tension nicely. The lineup contrast boosts watchability: New York just bludgeoned Boston behind two homers apiece from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham, and their post-break baserunning has spiked to complement top-tier power—while Aaron Judge remains limited to DH as his throwing ramps back up. If you enjoy the “can a contact suppressor thread the needle against a sledgehammer offense?” vibe, this is your game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Yankees (2.08 rating)

Washington Nationals

New York Yankees

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Two power arms, two different questions: can Edward Cabrera’s 96-mph changeup keep baffling bats while Spencer Strider halts a homer problem that’s spiked this month? With a gNERD of 11.75—slightly above today’s average—this one leans pitcher-forward.

The pNERD edge tilts to Cabrera, and there’s substance behind it: his mid- to upper‑90s velocity and that absurd changeup headline a season with a mid‑3s FIP, the byproduct of a more balanced mix and better feel for his non‑fastballs. Strider’s watchability is volatility; after a measured ramp back from elbow surgery—and stretches where the underlying numbers improved—his August has been about the long ball, with seven allowed in 11 2/3 innings. Team-wise, tNERD dings Atlanta more than Miami; the Braves arrive short a middle‑order bat with Austin Riley done for the year, and their bullpen just lost Aaron Bummer, nudging late‑inning intrigue in the wrong direction. Miami’s youth-and-stuff profile is the more entertaining side of the ledger, but both clubs’ less-than-sturdy relief groups add a dash of chaos. If you’re prioritizing, tune in for the whiffs early and stick around to see which pen blinks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

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Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

If you like skill-on-skill, this is your lane: Joe Ryan’s bat-missing four-seamer/sweeper meets Toronto’s contact-forward lineup and the league’s best gloves. Max Scherzer isn’t peak “Mad Max,” but his recent 6–7 inning efficiency plus those Jays mitts gives this one a high floor for watchability.

At a gNERD 10.85, this sits near the historical median and below today’s average, but Ryan (pNERD 6.40; strong xFIP- and strike% in the inputs) is a legit draw, with recent lines like 6.2 IP, 7 K, 1 R at New York and an 11-K gem in July—and he already held Toronto to two earned over five in their last meeting. Scherzer’s pNERD lags, yet he’s stabilized: 7 IP, 1 R vs. the Cubs, plus solid six-inning outings against the Dodgers and Royals. Toronto’s watchability boost comes from style and skill: MLB’s lowest K rate and league-best batting average, with Vlad, Bichette, and Varsho fueling recent scoring. Pair that with 2025’s No. 1 defense and you get run prevention theater. Minnesota’s tNERD is dragged by the bats and baserunning, but a strong bullpen means any Ryan lead could actually stick—so settle in for execution over chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Toronto Blue Jays

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

A rookie lefty mystery box meets a bullpen with a neon question mark. Cleveland’s Opening Day ace Tanner Bibee tries to steady a club navigating a closer-by-committee after Emmanuel Clase was placed on leave amid MLB’s gambling probe.

With a gNERD of 10.55, this sits a tick below today’s slate average but near the historical median—watchable because the components tug in opposite directions. Bibee (projected: 9-9, ~4.6 FIP-adjacent run prevention with a ~3:1 K:BB) is good-not-dominant, and he’s coming off a start where he yielded four to Arizona; that makes Cleveland’s late innings the real variable now that Cade Smith and friends are sharing save chances. Rookie Ian Seymour has a pNERD of 0 here only because the sample’s thin; the intrigue is real: the Rays’ lefty debuted in June, has been a swingman in the majors, and carried a 30%+ K rate at Triple-A behind a plus changeup.

Team-wise, both clubs’ midrange tNERDs hide quirks: Tampa Bay runs well and the pen is sturdy, while Cleveland’s run prevention leans on gloves and depth—but that unsettled ninth adds volatility, and therefore entertainment. If you like contrasts—methodical Bibee versus the unknown lefty and a high-leverage coin flip late—this deserves a look.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Cleveland Guardians

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

No detailed stats available

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Gloves over gas: St. Louis’ elite defense pairs with Michael McGreevy’s contact-first style, while Johan Oviedo returns to his old organization after a sharp tune-up.
The gNERD is 8.98—below today’s average and the historic median—but the matchup promises tight, fielding-forward baseball.

Cardinals watchability leans on leather: they’ve led MLB in Outs Above Average and runs prevented for large chunks of the season, perfect cover for McGreevy’s league‑average-ish underlying run prevention (xFIP- ~102) and command/ground‑ball approach rather than whiffs. Pittsburgh’s 3.84 tNERD lags because the lineup has been among the league’s lightest; as recently as last week, they were flirting with the dreaded “no league‑average hitters” mark by wRC+. Oviedo’s pNERD is blank only because the sample is new; his latest outing (5 IP, 6 K, 1 R) hinted at workable stuff post‑TJ, and the “former Cardinal faces St. Louis” angle adds just enough intrigue. St. Louis’ offense may not fully exploit the matchup, with Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan banged up, so expect defense, bullpen management, and mistake avoidance to decide it rather than a homer parade.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Pitcher novelty powers the watchability: Kansas City’s emerging lefty Noah Cameron squares off with Chicago’s Rule 5 pick turned rookie All‑Star Shane Smith. Tune in more for repertoire and shape than for fireworks.

With a gNERD of 8.90, this sits below today’s average, but the contrast is appealing: Cameron’s command-first, five-pitch mix and quicker pace (xFIP- ~100; 16.7s) versus Smith’s firmer 95-ish fastball, big overhand curve, and All‑Star shine (xFIP- ~105). Cameron’s profile—fastball around 92 and a true kitchen‑sink arsenal—has fueled a recent run that included 5 2/3 scoreless innings at Minnesota, while Smith’s ascent from Rule 5 pick to midseason All‑Star adds genuine curiosity value.

Team-wise, Chicago’s bats and gloves have graded poorly (tNERD components drag from both batting and fielding), while Kansas City offers cleaner defense and a sturdier bullpen; the Royals also carry a sizable positive “Luck” signal, suggesting they’ve underperformed their underlying numbers. On recency notes, Cameron kept traffic light in that Twins outing, whereas Smith’s last turn was six innings and four earned against Atlanta—useful context, not prophecy. If you like scouting a rising lefty against a power/curve rookie, this is quietly worth a window.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Kansas City Royals (2.11 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

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Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Curiosity watch: can NPB command artist Tomoyuki Sugano keep Boston’s bats quiet again while Baltimore’s closer-by-committee holds its nerve? It’s a low-gNERD game buoyed by Boston’s high tNERD, with Sugano’s MLB acclimation and a Red Sox opener supplying the intrigue.

At 8.01, this gNERD sits near the low end of today’s slate, but Boston’s 9.12 tNERD props it up: barrels, baserunning, defense, and a bullpen our model likes. Baltimore lags (3.26), and its back end is thinner after Félix Bautista’s shoulder surgery forced a committee that lately has featured Keegan Akin grabbing five-out saves. Sugano is the baseball reason to sample: the ex-Yomiuri ace just held Boston to one unearned run and has steadied of late with results outpacing whiffs. Boston counters with lefty Brennan Bernardino as an opener one day after a short outing, likely handing bulk to Richard Fitts; early left-on-left damage may be muted before the chessboard flips to the pens. Roster subplot: the Red Sox just added Nathaniel Lowe to plug a Casas-sized hole at first, giving the lineup another competent left-handed bat against Sugano.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Boston Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles

Brennan Bernardino, Boston Red Sox

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

This one’s a bullpen-and-storylines watch, not an ace-off: with a low gNERD (7.38) and both starters carrying bottom-tier pNERDs, the entertainment here likely arrives after the fifth inning. Seattle just got its rotation “back,” but Bryce Miller is fresh off the elbow shelf and allowed four in five in his return, while San Diego recalled JP Sears after a demotion and he answered with a quality start — volatility on both sides is the feature.

The model says “meh” at first pitch — both xFIP- marks (Sears 114, Miller 118) and modest miss rates explain the low pNERDs — but there’s intrigue if it’s tight late. San Diego supercharged an already excellent relief corps by trading for Mason Miller, and MLB’s own write‑up noted that group had been best‑in‑class over the season’s first four months; the contrast with Seattle’s recently overtaxed staff is stark.

For bats, Cal Raleigh’s power and the reunion with Eugenio Suárez give Seattle thump, while San Diego’s higher tNERD (7.16) plus a top-tier bullpen and competent contact game can grind out runs and shorten games. If you’re triaging the slate, this sits toward the low end, but close-and-late leverage — Padres pen versus a Mariners group still finding its shape — could still be sticky viewing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Seattle Mariners

JP Sears, San Diego Padres

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

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