MLB: What to watch on August 27, 2025

• 27 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 5:40p

Summary

Shohei Ohtani on the mound is the draw, and pNERD agrees: he’s today’s top arm, even as the Dodgers are still waiting for his first five-inning start. Nick Lodolo returns from the IL—and he just punched out 11 Dodgers last month—so there’s real upset spice if his finger holds up.

With a gNERD of 13.94, this sits atop today’s slate and near the high end historically; the pitching drives it, with Ohtani’s 11.65 pNERD (velocity and whiffs galore) versus Lodolo’s solid 5.99. The tNERD split tracks the eye test: Dodgers’ offense/bullpen grade out well, while Cincinnati’s bats lag, a trend reinforced by a recent 7–0 blanking and a rough August at the plate. If Ohtani’s recent thigh contusion is truly just a bruise, he’s a full go, but his build-up means the Dodger bullpen could still matter.

Storylines sweeten the watch: Dave Roberts has openly targeted simply getting Ohtani through five, and Lodolo’s specific matchup success included fanning Ohtani three times in that July meeting. If you want top-tier stuff versus a lefty who already proved he can miss these particular bats, this is your channel-flipper stopper—even if the Reds’ low tNERD warns the lineup might not keep pace.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Go back to top of page

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

A spin‑rate prodigy versus a cutter reboot: come for the Mets’ new toy, stay to see if the Phillies’ veteran tweak holds up. With a gNERD of 13.82—near the top of today’s slate—this one rates highly because two top-tier tNERDs collide and one pitcher might actually be a storyline by himself.

Rookie Nolan McLean has been electric out of the gate, debuting with 5.1 scoreless and eight strikeouts, then backing it up with seven sturdy frames; the breaker set is obscene, with a curve averaging roughly 3,300 rpm and a sweeper near 3,000, which explains the early whiff binge. The matchup juice is real because the Mets hit the ball hard as a group (team barrel rate around 10.4% vs. 8.6% MLB average), so contact against McLean should still be loud when it happens. On the other side, Taijuan Walker—ex‑Met—has trimmed walks and leaned into the cutter, but his underlying indicators (e.g., FIP north of five) say the pretty surface line is living a little dangerously. Layer on Philadelphia’s athletic baserunning and a post‑deadline, steadier bullpen, plus New York’s entertainment-forward broadcast, and you’ve got a high‑watchability clash with contrasting pitching aesthetics and plenty of star bats orbiting it.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

A top-shelf gNERD plus a built‑in chaos factor makes this one worth your eyeballs. The Brewers’ speed/defense/bullpen blend meets Arizona’s lively bats and leaky late innings—recipe for swingy, watchable baseball.

gNERD 13.25 sits near the top of today’s slate and above the 75th percentile historically, and the ingredients check out: Milwaukee’s high tNERD is driven by elite baserunning and gloves with a real bullpen backbone, while Arizona brings punch at the plate but a relief corps that too often hands back leads. That’s not just theory—after a walk‑off the previous game, these teams have already demonstrated volatility in neon lights. Quinn Priester is the cleaner-on-paper starter here: quicker tempo, better xFIP- than his counterpart, and he hasn’t taken a loss since May 13 while chasing a club record for consecutive winning decisions. Ryne Nelson brings more velocity than whiffs, and even when he exits ahead, Arizona hasn’t consistently banked those leads—exactly the kind of dynamic that inflates watchability. If you like pace contrasts, aggressive running, and late‑inning leverage, this game profiles as the day’s most reliable chaos engine.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Detroit Tigers @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

A near-top-of-the-slate gNERD (13.00) meets a clean narrative: Detroit’s barrel-and-baserunning machine against a rookie with loud stuff and the mystery box label. If you like discovery on one side and a legit contender on the other, this is your channel-flip deterrent.

Detroit’s tNERD edge tracks with what we’ve seen: a top-10-scoring offense this year plus real thump, with baserunning value to pressure a shaky A’s defense. Casey Mize brings an above-average pNERD (5.37) built on a solid xFIP- (97) and mid-90s velocity, and he’s shown recent bat-missing teeth, fanning 10 his last time out while pushing a double-digit win total. The counter is the fun unknown: 22-year-old Luis Morales, a top A’s arm whose 94–99 fastball and sweeping slider headline a four-pitch mix; he’s been taking his first MLB turns this month and flashing both strikeouts and walks. Layer in the backdrop of the A’s transient era at Sutter Health Park, which adds a curiosity factor without guaranteeing quality defense behind the kid, and you’ve got watchability baked in even before first pitch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Athletics

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

Luis Morales, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

High gNERD, higher contrast: the model loves Dietrich Enns’s run prevention and whiffs, but almost everything else tilts toward Boston’s watchability edge. After the Red Sox blanked Baltimore 5–0 in the opener, this profiles as a test of Enns’s recent strike-throwing against a deep, competent Boston machine. Boston’s big tNERD lead is fueled by barrels, defense, and a bullpen that rarely needs rescuing on nights like the last one, while Baltimore’s tNERD drags with poor fielding and baserunning. Enns is the curiosity: a 34-year-old lefty recently working late innings for his first MLB save since 2021, now listed for a rare start; if his strike% and whiff gains hold, his high pNERD makes sense and keeps this watchable. Bello, meanwhile, isn’t flashy by pNERD but has been steady and just spun seven scoreless in the Bronx; pair his grounder-heavy approach with Boston’s gloves and it can look efficient on TV. Layer in context: a gNERD of 12.85 sits well above today’s average and in the historical top quartile, plus the Orioles are injury-riddled and searching for answers.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Boston Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

Dietrich Enns, Baltimore Orioles

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:10a

Summary

Ace-level steadiness meets bullpen-and-gloves theater: Drew Rasmussen’s bat-muting profile against Cleveland’s defense/relief combo makes this a quietly high-skill watch. Cleveland just snapped a six-game skid behind rookie Parker Messick, but turning to Slade Cecconi adds some volatility that bumps the intrigue.

At 11.90, this gNERD sits in the upper tier of today’s slate, and the split comes through the components: Rasmussen’s strong pNERD (7.12) rides an 82 xFIP- with mid‑90s velocity, the kind of strike‑throwing that keeps traffic light; Cecconi’s pNERD (4.40) is more ordinary, with league‑average xFIP, and public models flag contact quality issues (xERA north of his runs allowed, via Savant). Tampa Bay’s tNERD leans on speed and a robust bullpen, while Cleveland’s watchability rests on elite defense and late‑inning run prevention, so a close game tilts toward the Guardians’ relief corps — Cade Smith just slammed the door in their shutout win. DraysBay’s preview also has this exact matchup on tap, confirming the Rasmussen vs. Cecconi billing.

Bottom line: if you like clean innings and narrow edges, Rasmussen’s pNERD advantage versus a below‑barrel Cleveland offense is the hook; if it’s tight late, Cleveland’s glove-and-bullpen aesthetic gives this one a neat second act.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Cleveland Guardians

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

Bryan Woo’s pNERD 8.13 meets the Padres’ bullpen buzzsaw, which is why this Vedder Cup tilt lands a healthy 11.51 gNERD. Seattle brings thunder and six‑plus‑inning stability; San Diego brings late‑inning teeth and just enough chaos to make it fun.

That 11.51 sits above today’s average and just shy of the historic 75th percentile, driven by Woo’s strike‑pumping, velo‑backed profile and his run of 6+ IP in each of his first 25 starts, a club record. The Padres counter with Yu Darvish, whose pNERD lags, but he recently shelved the Dodgers for 6 scoreless innings and 1 hit, hinting there’s still something in the tank. Offense tilts toward spectacle: Cal Raleigh just set the single‑season homer mark for a primary catcher and sits at 49, while San Diego’s lineup added spice via Ramon Laureano, who immediately grand‑slammed in this series. If it’s close late, edge Padres: Robert Suarez is stacking league‑leading saves for a relief corps that’s been a strength, while Seattle’s pen has sprung leaks. And yes, there’s hardware: the Vedder Cup is officially a thing now.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Seattle Mariners

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Go back to top of page

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

gNERD 11.27 puts this in the upper tier of today’s slate, and the hook is clear: Sonny Gray’s precision against a light-hitting Pirates lineup should make for crisp, pitcher-forward viewing. Pittsburgh’s twist is the newly reinstalled Carmen Mlodzinski, whose live 96 and starter‑for‑a‑day volatility add some suspense.

Gray’s 7.31 pNERD is driven by a strong xFIP- of 74, and his recent line includes seven innings with eight strikeouts at Dodger Stadium plus a five-inning, six‑K win over Tampa Bay—exactly the “miss bats, limit damage” template that pairs nicely with St. Louis’s gloves and bullpen. Pittsburgh’s 3.87 tNERD drags thanks to deeply negative batting runs and a below‑average barrel rate, so the Cards don’t need fireworks to make this watchable. On the other side, Mlodzinski brings a 92 xFIP‑ and mid‑90s heat; the Pirates confirmed he’s taking this turn, and his last opening assignment was four innings of one‑run (unearned) ball with three strikeouts and 14 whiffs. With an average pitcher NERD across today at 4.96, this duel sits well above the pack and, relative to the historical distribution, comfortably above median—more likely to showcase sequencing and swing‑and‑miss than a slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals

Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh Pirates

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

Go back to top of page

Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees, 10:05a

Summary

A classic “stuff vs thump” watch: Max Fried’s command-and-contact management tries to stabilize while Cade Cavalli brings post–TJ thunder to the Bronx. If you want barrels with a side of breakout potential, this gNERD 10.56 matchup fits.

By NERD, it’s mid-pack today but above the historical median; the gap is team-driven, with the Yankees’ 8.48 tNERD dwarfing Washington’s 0.81, meaning New York supplies most of the entertainment. The Bronx bats have backed that up with record home‑run binges this season, so any mistake can leave in a hurry. Cavalli actually owns the higher pNERD here thanks to elite velocity and a hammer curve; he’s fresh off a long road back and already spun seven scoreless against Philadelphia, with multiple outlets noting his upper‑90s heat and plus breaking ball. Fried’s arc has been less linear — early results outpaced the peripherals (xFIP mid‑3s) and a recent skid invited hand‑wringing — but the underlying quality is still there if he lands strikes. Translation: either the Yankees’ power show plays to form, or Cavalli’s raw stuff makes this a sneaky‑rewarding watch for those scouting upside.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Yankees (2.08 rating)

Washington Nationals

New York Yankees

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

Max Fried, New York Yankees

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Watch for contrasts: the Cubs’ barrels-speed-glove trifecta meets a Giants club turning to rookie lefty Carson Whisenhunt and a bullpen that’s been patched on the fly. It’s a mid-pack gNERD today, but the ingredients for action—balls in play, base stealing, and a green arm—are all here.

Chicago’s big tNERD does the lifting: an aggressive baserunning identity and real thump, plus elite run prevention. Their defense grades top‑three by Defensive Runs Saved, a tidy match for Colin Rea’s contact-heavy profile; with a mid‑4s FIP and few whiffs, the leather should matter. On the other side, Whisenhunt brings an excellent changeup and prospect shine, but his early MLB line has been bumpy and homer‑susceptible by FIP—dicey against a lineup that punishes mistakes. San Francisco’s margin late is thinner after closer Randy Rodríguez hit the IL, nudging Ryan Walker back into ninth‑inning duty.

Bottom line: the pitching pNERDs won’t sell it, but Chicago’s high‑end team watchability (barrels, baserunning, defense) versus Whisenhunt’s volatility and a stressed Giants pen pushes this comfortably into the “worth your time” tier, especially if you enjoy speed, rangy plays, and the occasional ooof‑that‑hung changeup.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Chicago Cubs

San Francisco Giants

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

Carson Whisenhunt, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Elite run prevention meets rehab-and-return intrigue: Eric Lauer’s midseason revival for Toronto draws a just-activated Simeon Woods Richardson back from an IL stint caused by, yes, a parasite. The gNERD sits in the “solid but not essential” tier, but the Blue Jays’ best-in-class gloves and framing give this a cleaner, crisper watch than its pitcher NERDs imply.

At 8.90, this game rates below today’s slate average (10.61), largely because both starters carry modest pNERDs: Lauer’s around-average xFIP (xFIP- ~99) and strong strike-throwing make contact likely, while Woods Richardson’s poorer run estimators (xFIP- 121) and low whiff/strike rates cap the bat-missing drama. Toronto’s tNERD (8.08) is buoyed by plus-80 Batting Runs and elite fielding, the latter amplified by Kirk/Heineman’s strike-stealing; Minnesota lags with the glove but brings a top-shelf back-end bullpen that can tighten a close finish. Recent series flavor adds juice: George Springer just went deep twice as the Jays let one slip late, so there’s some emotional bite here. Lauer’s comeback (after a KBO detour) has been a genuine bright spot, and SWR’s return provides a curiosity hook. Net: not appointment TV, but tidy defense, a resurgent lefty, and a bullpen that can hum make it worth a channel check.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Toronto Blue Jays

Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins

Eric Lauer, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Framber Valdez’s turbo sinker against rookie volatility is the hook; Yordan Álvarez’s return gives the lineup a splash of drama. gNERD lands on the low side today, but there’s just enough pitcher intrigue and roster news to keep a thumb on the remote.

With a 7.48 gNERD, this leans “background TV” relative to today’s slate, dragged by a rock-bottom Rockies tNERD while Houston’s is propped up by run prevention. The watchable bits: Valdez’s pNERD 6.72 is supported by top-shelf indicators—around a 3.0 xFIP with his trademark 60%+ ground-ball rate—and he’s mostly been nails at run suppression even if his last start hiccupped. Meanwhile Álvarez was reinstated from the 60-day IL, a genuine lineup swing for a club that’s slumped since early July.

Chase Dollander (pNERD 4.24) brings prospect-y appeal—upper-90s heat and a plus slider—but the model dings him for a rough xFIP- and shaky strike/whiff rates, which is consistent with scouting looks. If his command wavers, Houston’s contact quality plus Minute Maid’s infield can turn balls into outs—and occasionally damage.

If this tilts late, the Astros’ bullpen depth still matters despite Josh Hader’s injury and the Kimbrel add. In short: tune for Valdez’s craft, peek at Dollander’s raw stuff, and see what Álvarez’s bat looks like.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

Colorado Rockies

Houston Astros

Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, 10:10a

Summary

Two low pNERD starters and two wobbly bullpens make this more curiosity than appointment TV—unless you enjoy late-inning chaos. The hook is Miami’s new arm Ryan Gusto, a deadline pickup who flashed real stuff and eight Ks in his Marlins debut vs. these Braves, while Atlanta navigates life without Austin Riley. Despite a gNERD of 7.37 that sits below today’s average and the historic median, there’s watchability in the contrasts: Joey Wentz (pNERD 1.7) brings mid-4s FIP/xFIP with righties faring well against him, whereas Gusto (pNERD 4.1) owns a more palatable underlying line at home (FIP/xFIP ~4.27/3.99) and a strong K-BB profile vs. RHB. Offenses lean middling by the model’s team inputs, with Atlanta dinged by baserunning and bullpen components and Miami buoyed by youth/low payroll. If you’re prospect-curious, the Gusto trade itself is a subplot worth sampling; if you’re theater-curious, note Atlanta just detonated a nine-run ninth against this bullpen. And if Ronald Acuña Jr. is in the lineup—as he was during that outburst—the quality of at-bats gets a tangible bump even if the overall NERD math stays lukewarm.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Not the headliner by gNERD, but Rangers bats versus an inexperienced Angel and a converted reliever could still light the board. Expect contact, baserunning, and a few loud mistakes rather than a whiff-fest.

At 6.64, this sits near the low end of today’s gNERD range (6.29–13.94), mostly because the Angels’ tNERD is weak (1.51), dragged down by poor defense and a leaky bullpen, while the average pNERD is middling. Jack Kochanowicz’s profile (xFIP- 120, minimal whiffs) invites traffic; Jacob Latz is closer to league-average run prevention (xFIP- 103) with a better bat-missing shape, but he’s been toggling between multi-inning relief and spot starts, so this likely plays like a bullpen-forward game. The watchable hook is Texas’s lineup: they’ve been barreling the ball of late, with a .470 slug and 17 homers over their last 10, and Corey Seager scorching at a .368/.442/.684 clip in that span. Even with Marcus Semien sidelined 4–6 weeks, the Rangers still run well and catch the ball, which helps the aesthetic. On the other side, the Angels’ bats have been light overall, but Jo Adell’s recent power binge offers a counterpunch if Kochanowicz doesn’t get buried early.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

Jack Kochanowicz, Los Angeles Angels

Jacob Latz, Texas Rangers

Go back to top of page

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

If you’re triaging screens, this one leans “second device”: a gNERD of 6.29 sits at the bottom of today’s slate, weighed down by a low average pNERD (2.43). There’s still a hook: Ryan Bergert’s mid-rotation audition versus Aaron Civale’s veteran recalibration. Bergert (pNERD 3.97) brings a carry fastball/firm slider look and works briskly; the model dings him for a slightly below‑average xFIP‑ (106), but the repertoire development is worth a peek. Civale (0.88) has the weaker peripherals here, with a worse xFIP‑ (118) and modest whiff profile after a June move to the South Side, which has produced peaks and valleys.

The team ingredients nudge “watchable-but-muted”: Kansas City fields and bullpens well but hits softly (negative batting runs), while Chicago’s bats and gloves both grade down, which explains the low tNERDs. Still, there’s context: the series is knotted and the Royals remain in the Wild Card chase, with Michael Massey just activated and immediately delivering late-inning damage, while Chicago counters with a youth bump—hello, Colson Montgomery’s home‑run binge. And yes, it is indeed Bergert vs. Civale on the probable card.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Kansas City Royals (2.11 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Chicago White Sox

Ryan Bergert, Kansas City Royals

Aaron Civale, Chicago White Sox

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 26, 2025
• Next →
  MLB: What to watch on August 28, 2025