MLB: What to watch on August 28, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.8 | 10:05a | Boston Red Sox | 9.1 | Baltimore Orioles | 3.1 | Garrett Crochet | 11.9 | Cade Povich | 5.6 |
| 13.6 | 12:45p | Chicago Cubs | 10.0 | San Francisco Giants | 4.0 | Shota Imanaga | 3.9 | Logan Webb | 9.3 |
| 12.7 | 4:10p | Miami Marlins | 5.8 | New York Mets | 11.7 | TBD | No data | Clay Holmes | 2.9 |
| 10.2 | 11:10a | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.6 | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.6 | Nabil Crismatt | No data | Jose Quintana | 0.1 |
| 9.9 | 11:15a | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3.9 | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.1 | Braxton Ashcraft | 8.9 | Miles Mikolas | 1.9 |
| 9.9 | 4:40p | New York Yankees | 8.7 | Chicago White Sox | 2.9 | Will Warren | 5.0 | Davis Martin | 3.3 |
| 9.0 | 3:45p | Atlanta Braves | 3.3 | Philadelphia Phillies | 8.1 | Cal Quantrill | 1.5 | Aaron Nola | 5.1 |
| 5.2 | 11:10a | Colorado Rockies | -0.8 | Houston Astros | 4.9 | Kyle Freeland | 3.5 | Jason Alexander | 2.9 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:05a
Summary
Your gNERD leader is a real one: 14.84 puts BOS–BAL at the top of today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically, and it rides Garrett Crochet’s ace-level pNERD (11.92) into must-watch territory. Layer in the subplot—Orioles without Adley Rutschman and rookie Samuel Basallo catching Cade Povich—and you’ve got stakes plus experimentation.
Crochet’s case is skill-forward, not box-score fluff: his xFIP- of 63 and mid‑90s velocity from the model scream bat-misser, and he’s punched out 8+ in four of his last five starts, fueling a very live Cy push. Boston’s tNERD (9.06) adds juice via barrels, baserunning, defense and a plus bullpen—all ingredients that keep innings crisp and leverage high. On the other side, Baltimore’s tNERD (3.07) is dragged down by gloves and relief work, and with Rutschman sidelined, Basallo’s rapid on-the-job education becomes part of the watch.
Povich’s profile (pNERD 5.62; xFIP- 92) is more craft than thunder—five pitches, some recent strikeouts, but command wiggle and a rough last turn—so Boston’s hitters should test his sequencing. If you like elite vs. developing, ace vs. adjuster, and a team that just locked its top arm long-term taking center stage, this is your appointment.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 17.2 | 9.7% | 6.6 | 22.2 | 54.4 | $191.8M | 28.7 | -11.0 | 2.47 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.32 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 1.46 | 0.25 | -0.02 | -0.53 | 0.16 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.32 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 4.00 | 9.06 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -21.8 | 9.1% | -3.3 | -14.4 | 16.3 | $167.6M | 29.2 | -13.0 | 2.82 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.35 | 0.45 | -0.63 | -0.73 | -0.59 | -0.07 | 0.49 | -0.63 | 0.85 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.35 | 0.45 | -0.63 | -0.73 | -0.59 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 4.00 | 3.07 |
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 63 | 13.5% | 67.0% | 96.2 mph | 26 | 17.3s | -7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.25 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.06 | -0.68 | -1.00 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.51 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 1.06 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 11.92 |
Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92 | 10.2% | 62.6% | 92.2 mph | 25 | 18.2s | 34 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.53 | -0.16 | -0.58 | -0.75 | -0.94 | -0.28 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.07 | -0.08 | -0.29 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.62 |
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p
Summary
Logan Webb’s bulldozer peripherals meet the Cubs’ high-octane, defense-and-baserunning machine — a near top-of-the-slate gNERD that promises a tidy, high-leverage watch. If you like workhorse ground-ball artists chasing milestones, Webb’s 200 IP/200 K bid is the hook; if you prefer chaos, Chicago’s bats and gloves supply it.
At 13.58, this gNERD sits near today’s peak and well above the historic median, and the why is straightforward: Webb’s pNERD (9.27) rides run estimators in the mid-2s with elite K–BB% at Oracle, the quick pace, and his sinker-slider bowling-ball act; that’s the spine of the watch. Shota Imanaga’s pNERD trails (3.91), but he’s a splitter-forward strike-thrower whose season line is buoyed by command more than contact suppression, with a FIP notably higher than his ERA — precisely the kind of tension NERD is built to flag. The matchup tilt is real: the Cubs have produced top-10-ish thump vs righties, while the Giants have run one of the league’s weakest wOBAs and a high K% vs lefties. If you need storylines, San Francisco just flexed with a Devers/Chapman power show, and Webb vs. Imanaga is indeed the ticketed pairing.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)
Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)
Chicago Cubs
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 52.8 | 9.9% | 9.7 | 31.9 | 19.2 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -18.0 | 3.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.92 | 1.10 | 1.55 | 1.63 | -0.43 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.87 | 1.22 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.92 | 1.10 | 1.55 | 1.63 | -0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 9.99 |
San Francisco Giants
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -25.3 | 7.5% | -6.8 | 9.0 | 34.8 | $195.3M | 29.3 | -5.0 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.41 | -0.84 | -1.22 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.59 | -0.24 | 1.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.41 | -0.84 | -1.22 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 4.00 | 3.99 |
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 108 | 11.6% | 67.9% | 90.9 mph | 31 | 19.0s | -34 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.42 | 0.52 | 1.72 | -1.34 | 0.61 | 0.37 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.83 | 0.26 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.91 |
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 68 | 10.6% | 66.1% | 92.6 mph | 28 | 16.4s | 9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.96 | 0.03 | 0.93 | -0.57 | -0.16 | -1.73 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.91 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.86 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.27 |
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 4:10p
Summary
A top-tier gNERD (12.69) with the Mets’ offense and SNY doing the heavy lifting meets a mound curiosity: ex-closer-turned-starter Clay Holmes versus a Marlins “TBD” after an injury scramble. Expect grounders, contact, and some chaos rather than a strikeout showcase.
This sits near the top of today’s slate and around the 75th percentile historically; New York’s hefty tNERD (11.74) drives it while Miami’s middling mark tempers it. Holmes’ profile is league-average by peripherals (xFIP ≈ 4.07, xFIP- ~100) but very ground-ball heavy (~56%), and he’s yielded just three runs across his last two starts—enough to make the sinker-watch worthwhile. Miami hasn’t named a starter after placing Janson Junk on the IL, so you could get opener/rookie volatility on that side. Meanwhile, the Mets’ bats have been cashing innings—Mark Vientos heating up and the middle rolling—which props up watchability even with modest pNERD. Add in a live series subplot with prized arm Jonah Tong called up, and there’s extra juice around Queens. If Miami leans on emerging pieces like Jakob Marsee (lively early road line), there’s counterpunch potential, but the show is Holmes navigating contact while the Mets’ order tries to barrel their way to entertainment.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)
Miami Marlins
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -29.1 | 8.0% | -1.6 | 5.4 | 10.7 | $67.3M | 26.8 | 5.0 | 1.79 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.47 | -0.44 | -0.35 | 0.28 | -0.89 | -1.42 | -1.96 | 0.24 | -1.17 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.47 | -0.44 | -0.35 | 0.28 | -0.89 | 1.42 | 1.96 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.76 |
New York Mets
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 72.9 | 10.4% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 38.6 | $332.0M | 29.7 | 28.0 | 3.32 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.26 | 1.50 | 0.90 | 0.29 | 0.61 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 1.35 | 1.82 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.26 | 1.50 | 0.90 | 0.29 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.35 | 1.82 | 4.00 | 11.74 |
Clay Holmes, New York Mets
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 101 | 8.9% | 62.6% | 93.7 mph | 32 | 19.1s | -12 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.00 | -0.80 | -0.57 | -0.07 | 0.87 | 0.45 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.00 | -0.40 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.89 |
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a
Summary
This is a team-driven watch, not a strikeout clinic: Milwaukee’s high-octane baserunning and defense meet Arizona’s above-average bats, while the starters profile as passengers more than pilots. If you like action on balls in play and late-inning bullpen leverage, this checks the box.
gNERD lands at 10.17—roughly middle of today’s slate but a tick above the historical median—because the clubs boost the entertainment value even as pNERD lags. Milwaukee’s tNERD (9.63) is fueled by elite running (+2.19) and slick fielding (+1.02), and a supportive bullpen (+0.82), a fun contrast with Arizona’s better bats (+1.06 Batting Runs) and shakier relief (-1.85). Arizona turns to Nabil Crismatt (pNERD 0.00), who’s been effective in short stints; Milwaukee counters with lefty José Quintana (pNERD 0.07), so expect contact over punchouts rather than a whiff-fest.
Recent form adds juice: the D-backs just edged the Brewers 3–2 behind Blaze Alexander and Geraldo Perdomo homers, with Pavin Smith dinged (quad) but listed as likely to go; meanwhile, Brice Turang and William Contreras have carried Milwaukee’s recent pop.
Net: average starting intrigue, above-average on-field chaos—the kind of game where savvy defense, daring legs, and a bullpen decision or two decide it.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 61.1 | 9.2% | 6.1 | 7.9 | -7.2 | $189.5M | 29.5 | 11.0 | 2.19 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.06 | 0.53 | 0.95 | 0.41 | -1.85 | 0.22 | 0.79 | 0.53 | -0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.06 | 0.53 | 0.95 | 0.41 | -1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.63 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 48.3 | 6.4% | 13.5 | 19.9 | 42.4 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -38.0 | 2.66 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.84 | -1.73 | 2.19 | 1.02 | 0.82 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.84 | 0.53 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.84 | -1.73 | 2.19 | 1.02 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 4.00 | 9.63 |
Nabil Crismatt, Arizona Diamondbacks
No detailed stats available
Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 116 | 6.7% | 61.2% | 90.5 mph | 36 | 19.6s | -36 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.89 | -1.87 | -1.17 | -1.53 | 1.90 | 0.85 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.78 | -0.94 | -0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 0.07 |
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a
Summary
Braxton Ashcraft is the draw; the subplot is whether St. Louis can handle velocity they’ve openly struggled to hit. This grades as a mid-tier watch boosted by a high-pNERD rookie facing a thinned Cardinals lineup.
Ashcraft’s pNERD (8.93) and xFIP- (85) flag a lively, efficient look, and the stuff backs it: a 96.9 mph four-seamer with a hard slider and curve, plus just one run allowed over his last two outings as he eased through five scoreless before Bubba Chandler finished a combined three-hitter. Pittsburgh has been leaning into that power/strike-throwing template, and Oliver Marmol conceded his club hasn’t punished fastballs lately—precisely Ashcraft’s lane.
Miles Mikolas (pNERD 1.94; xFIP- 117) brings contact and scant whiffs, with run prevention further pressured by 23 homers allowed and a FIP north of five. If he lives over the plate, even Pittsburgh’s low tNERD bats have a path.
Team-wise, modest tNERDs (PIT 3.89, STL 5.09) point to defense/bullpens carrying some of the entertainment—both grade well—while St. Louis’ lineup depth is dented by injuries (e.g., Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan). In today’s slate this gNERD (9.92) sits near the historical median, but Ashcraft’s rise plus the Cards’ fastball question nudges it onto your short list.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)
Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -101.2 | 7.9% | -5.0 | 13.1 | 35.7 | $88.9M | 28.4 | 9.0 | 2.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.69 | -0.52 | -0.92 | 0.67 | 0.46 | -1.13 | -0.33 | 0.43 | -0.74 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.69 | -0.52 | -0.92 | 0.67 | 0.46 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.89 |
St. Louis Cardinals
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -14.2 | 7.9% | -3.6 | 24.0 | 39.4 | $135.7M | 28.6 | -18.0 | 2.17 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.22 | -0.52 | -0.68 | 1.23 | 0.66 | -0.50 | -0.13 | -0.87 | -0.43 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.22 | -0.52 | -0.68 | 1.23 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.09 |
Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 85 | 11.4% | 67.1% | 96.9 mph | 25 | 18.5s | -22 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.95 | 0.42 | 1.37 | 1.38 | -0.94 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.90 | 0.21 | 0.68 | 1.38 | 0.94 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.93 |
Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 117 | 7.2% | 66.1% | 92.5 mph | 36 | 17.7s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.95 | -1.63 | 0.94 | -0.62 | 1.90 | -0.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.90 | -0.81 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.94 |
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p
Summary
Yankees thunder versus a thin Sox lineup and a pitch‑to‑contact starter is the hook; the fun subplot is whether Davis Martin’s grounders survive in front of MLB’s top‑slugging offense. On the other side, Will Warren’s cartoon‑wide sweeper gives this a pitcher‑watch wrinkle even if the overall gNERD sits mid‑pack.
At 9.91, the game leans on a big tNERD split: Yankees high (8.70) versus Sox low (2.91). New York leads the league in SLG and home runs, and Aaron Judge is active at DH after a right‑elbow flexor strain—he just left the Nationals series with homer No. 41—so the lineup punch is real even if his glove isn’t. Warren’s the more watchable arm (pNERD 4.95): his xFIP trend is better than the surface, and his sweeper owns elite horizontal break; he’s coming off a short, 5‑ER stumble but recently punched out seven in 6⅔. Martin (pNERD 3.26) brings command and grounders with a meager swinging‑strike rate and a tinkered “kick change,” making him more contact manager than bat‑misser—exactly the profile New York’s barrels feast on. Chicago’s watchability dips further without Luis Robert Jr., who just hit the IL with a hamstring strain.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)
Recommended broadcast: New York Yankees (2.08 rating)
New York Yankees
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 107.4 | 11.6% | -1.6 | 6.9 | 19.8 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 16.0 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.85 | 2.47 | -0.35 | 0.36 | -0.40 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.77 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.85 | 2.47 | -0.35 | 0.36 | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.70 |
Chicago White Sox
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -70.0 | 7.9% | -5.5 | -22.7 | 31.6 | $79.0M | 27.5 | -9.0 | 1.82 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.16 | -0.52 | -1.00 | -1.15 | 0.24 | -1.26 | -1.25 | -0.44 | -1.11 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.16 | -0.52 | -1.00 | -1.15 | 0.24 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 2.91 |
Will Warren, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 89 | 9.4% | 61.6% | 93.2 mph | 26 | 19.1s | 21 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.71 | -0.55 | -1.00 | -0.30 | -0.68 | 0.45 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.42 | -0.28 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.68 | -0.22 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.95 |
Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 107 | 9.4% | 63.0% | 93.6 mph | 28 | 17.3s | -12 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.36 | -0.55 | -0.42 | -0.12 | -0.16 | -1.00 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.71 | -0.28 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.26 |
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p
Summary
This is a Phillies‑tilted watch: Aaron Nola’s better underlying line meets a top‑tier, hyperactive offense, while Atlanta arrives with newly claimed Cal Quantrill and a lineup missing Austin Riley. With Zack Wheeler out and Nola just back from the IL, the question is whether his xFIP‑ edge (88) shows up before Kyle Schwarber or Trea Turner turn this into a track meet.
gNERD 9.0 lands a shade under today’s slate average, but the Phillies’ strong tNERD (8.13) props it up via plus baserunning, capable defense, and a broadcast that won’t make you mute the TV. On the mound, Nola’s pNERD (5.08), strike throwing, and xFIP‑ (88) beat Quantrill’s 1.48 and 114, so the model likes the home side if the skills hold. Nola’s return opener was a mess, then steadier over six innings last time; Quantrill was added last week and remains contact‑heavy, with 2025 splits that crush lefties but get torched by righties—less than ideal with Bohm/Castellanos/Realmuto around even before Harper and Schwarber enter the chat.
Atlanta’s low tNERD (3.31) reflects weak baserunning and a shaky pen, and Riley’s surgery thins the thump further. If you’re here for crisp pitching, temper expectations; if you like stars, power, and aggressive running, Philadelphia supplies the watchability even if this isn’t the day’s headliner.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)
Atlanta Braves
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 1.4 | 9.0% | -5.3 | 6.2 | 9.8 | $216.2M | 29.4 | 10.0 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.05 | 0.37 | -0.97 | 0.32 | -0.94 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.48 | -0.05 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.05 | 0.37 | -0.97 | 0.32 | -0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.31 |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 36.6 | 8.9% | 7.6 | 4.6 | 25.5 | $279.5M | 29.5 | 17.0 | 2.92 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.65 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 0.24 | -0.09 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 1.03 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.65 | 0.29 | 1.20 | 0.24 | -0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 1.03 | 4.00 | 8.13 |
Cal Quantrill, Atlanta Braves
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 114 | 8.7% | 62.5% | 93.7 mph | 30 | 18.7s | 15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.77 | -0.90 | -0.64 | -0.07 | 0.35 | 0.12 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.54 | -0.45 | -0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 1.48 |
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 88 | 11.8% | 65.6% | 91.1 mph | 32 | 21.0s | 64 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.77 | 0.62 | 0.73 | -1.25 | 0.87 | 1.98 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.54 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.99 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.08 |
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros, 11:10a
Summary
Today’s gNERD sits on the floor, but there’s a modest hook: Yordan Alvarez is back mashing and the Astros are leaning on Jason Alexander’s late-summer cameo to steady a wobbly rotation. If you’re peeking in, it’s to see whether Alvarez’s bat and a patched bullpen can protect a slim AL West lead against a Rockies club that grades out poorly across the board.
At 5.21, this is the lowest gNERD among today’s games and below the historic 5th percentile, thanks largely to a lopsided tNERD split: Houston’s decent 4.87 versus Colorado’s -0.85 driven by deep negatives in batting, baserunning, fielding, and relief. Expect balls in play more than whiffs; pNERD is soft on both sides (Freeland 3.51, Alexander 2.89), with xFIP- readings around league-worse-ish 106–107 and tepid SwStr%, so the outfielders may log the highlights. Probables are Freeland vs. Alexander.
There is story value: Alvarez homered in his second game back after a 100-game IL stint, and Houston’s bullpen theatre remains live with Josh Hader out and Craig Kimbrel newly aboard. Alexander’s sinker/change/slider profile has given the rotation just enough competence to buy time. Net: modest watchability unless you’re here for the Astros’ pennant math, Alvarez’s return, or the gentle art of contact management.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)
Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)
Colorado Rockies
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -137.5 | 8.0% | -8.5 | -24.5 | -2.3 | $125.9M | 27.9 | 16.0 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.31 | -0.44 | -1.51 | -1.24 | -1.59 | -0.63 | -0.84 | 0.77 | -1.29 | — | — |
| tNERD | -2.31 | -0.44 | -1.51 | -1.24 | -1.59 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 4.00 | -0.85 |
Houston Astros
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 3.4 | 7.7% | -5.4 | 4.8 | 44.0 | $221.9M | 29.0 | 27.0 | 2.17 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.08 | -0.68 | -0.99 | 0.25 | 0.90 | 0.66 | 0.28 | 1.30 | -0.42 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.08 | -0.68 | -0.99 | 0.25 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.87 |
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 106 | 9.4% | 67.3% | 91.6 mph | 32 | 19.0s | 5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.30 | -0.55 | 1.43 | -1.03 | 0.87 | 0.37 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.59 | -0.28 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.51 |
Jason Alexander, Houston Astros
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 107 | 9.1% | 61.7% | 91.3 mph | 32 | 17.1s | 4 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.36 | -0.70 | -0.96 | -1.16 | 0.87 | -1.16 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.71 | -0.35 | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.89 |