MLB: What to watch on August 29, 2025

• 29 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

A headliner by the numbers and the narrative: a top-of-the-slate gNERD gets the added jolt of a debuting strikeout artist facing an upper-90s prodigy with elite underlying metrics. If you’re sampling just one, this one blends novelty (Jonah Tong’s first start) with genuine quality (Eury Pérez’s stuff and the Mets’ thunderous bats).

This game owns today’s highest gNERD and even clears the historical 95th percentile, driven by a big tNERD edge for a Mets lineup that’s been hammering since late May (multiple regulars at 110+ wRC+ in that span). Pérez supplies the pNERD heft: his 2025 Statcast line features an xERA around 2.7, a 26–27% whiff rate, and premium velocity. Tong brings the intrigue—MLB debut, 179 K in 113.2 minor‑league innings with a riding four‑seamer and an upgraded changeup that’s drawn raves. The Mets just coughed up a sloppy opener, and their catching situation bears watching after Francisco Álvarez’s fractured pinkie, but the bats remain a show. On the other side, Miami’s offense has been below NL average, putting more weight on Pérez to shine.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

If you like your baseball with a capital-A Ace test, this is it: Paul Skenes (today’s top pNERD) walking into Fenway to face a top-5 offense, plus Boston’s late-inning buzzsaw. The only mystery is Boston’s starter—reports point to either Dustin May or a Payton Tolle debut—which actually adds a little novelty juice.

The gNERD sits at 14.50—near the top of today’s slate (5.84–14.85) and brushing the 95th percentile historically—because Skenes is a show and Boston tends to make shows watchable. Skenes brings upper-90s heat with real skill metrics behind it (xFIP around 3, K–BB% >20%, and even better away xFIP ~2.9), and he just spun seven scoreless in his last turn; if you want appointment viewing driven by stuff and execution, that’s your hook. Boston’s lineup, meanwhile, ranks top four in runs and can stress pitchers with contact, power, and baserunning, while the Pirates’ bats have lived near the bottom in runs and homers—great for a showcase ace-vs.-lineup contrast.

If Boston goes May, that’s a variance-heavy foil; if it’s Tolle, first-look intrigue applies. Either way, the Red Sox can hand it to a bullpen headlined by a resurgent Aroldis Chapman (gas, whiffs, and results) and newly reinforced by Justin Slaten.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Boston Red Sox

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Top-of-the-standings sizzle meets rehab intrigue: Brewers–Blue Jays sits near the top of today’s slate, pairing Freddy Peralta’s bat-missing track record with Shane Bieber’s second-start mystery. If you like elite clubs plus one ace in form and another testing a rebuilt elbow, this gNERD 13.76 is your shortlist pick.

Both teams bring big tNERDs (MIL 9.7, TOR 8.3), with Milwaukee’s speed/defense/bullpen blend and Toronto’s glove work lifting the baseline watchability. Peralta’s middling pNERD (4.53) undersells the goods: a 26.3% K rate, 3.69 FIP, and 12.6% swinging-strike rate, while the Brewers’ pen has ranked among the best lately, which helps tighten the finish. Bieber’s pNERD is 0 only because inputs are scarce, not because the stuff is: he punched out nine over six strong in his Blue Jays debut and now makes start No. 2 after a deadline trade and long Tommy John layoff. Add that these are MLB’s top two teams by record with Toronto owning the best home mark and Milwaukee the best overall, and the stakes feel October-adjacent without the pyrotechnics. For a final subplot, Peralta is chasing the franchise strikeout leaderboard, which could surface on any given whiff binge.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Toronto Blue Jays

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Whiffs, star power, and late-inning chaos make this one eminently watchable. With a gNERD of 11.42, it’s comfortably above today’s average and the historical median, boosted by the Dodgers’ bats and a sharp contrast between bullpens.

Blake Snell’s pNERD edges Gallen’s, and recent form backs it: after four months out, Snell returned flashing velocity and 19 swinging strikes in 5 IP on Aug. 2, then followed with 7 efficient innings last time out; he was just reinstated from the paternity list and lines up here. The Dodgers supply premium run support — top-two by season-long wRC+ and among the league leaders in power — even while missing pieces like Max Muncy. Arizona’s offense is solid and athletic (tNERD 5.68), but the bullpen’s been combustible, with a league‑high 40 blown leads recently underscoring the late-inning drama risk. Gallen brings a quick pace and league‑average underlying run prevention, and he’s coming off 6 IP, 1 R with 7 K — enough to keep L.A. honest but not immune to loud contact. Add an elite Dodgers relief unit (by performance and personnel, even with Alex Vesia now sidelined), and you’ve got a high-variance, high-entertainment watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

High-velo upstart vs. crafty newcomer alert: Zebby Matthews’ pNERD-soaring stuff meets a freshly acquired Nestor Cortes who just resurfaced with six one-hit, scoreless innings. Pair a thumpy Twins lineup (Byron Buxton left Toronto with two homers) with San Diego’s relief machine, and an 11.36 gNERD lands firmly in the “watch” bin.

Matthews (10.02 pNERD) is the headliner: the 25-year-old has added real juice — sitting upper-90s with elite strike-throwing — which backs the model’s strong xFIP-/whiff components and gives this matchup its ceiling. Cortes (0.92 pNERD) dings the average-pitcher score thanks to a rough xFIP- in the inputs, but context matters: the Padres traded for him at the deadline and he immediately dealt to the Dodgers, with San Diego’s pen (Jeremiah Estrada, Adrián Morejón et al.) slamming the door.

Team-wise, the Padres’ higher tNERD (7.41) leans on bullpen strength and watchable broadcast vibes, while Minnesota’s modest tNERD (4.38) is buoyed by power that still pops — see that 9–8 homer-fest in Toronto. Relative to today’s slate, this gNERD sits above average, lifted by the “see-what-the-kid-does” intrigue of Matthews versus a name-brand lefty reinventing on the fly, and the likelihood of leverage innings where San Diego’s bullpen can flex.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Minnesota Twins

Nestor Cortes, San Diego Padres

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Ranger Suárez’s watchability travels well: a sub-3.00 FIP and mid‑3s xFIP as a starter, plus one run allowed across 13 innings vs. Atlanta this year, make this matchup lean Phillies. Bryce Elder’s quick tempo and improved road xFIP add some intrigue, but his home‑run/BB profile against Philly keeps the edge thin and brittle.

With a gNERD of 10.86 — above today’s average and near the historical median — this is a solid viewing slot driven by pNERD favoring Suárez (5.85 to 4.58) and a sharp tNERD contrast: Philly’s high‑functioning baserunning and decent leather versus Atlanta’s clunky baserunning and a wobbly bullpen. Suárez’s underlying line (as a starter: FIP ~2.96, xFIP ~3.56, low HR/9) pairs nicely with a lineup carrying the season series and a very public 50‑homer chase from Kyle Schwarber. Elder’s road split helps (xFIP ~3.09), but his away HR/9 near 1.75 and 11 walks in 12⅔ career innings vs. Philly are red flags the Phils have already exploited while taking six of ten. Injuries tilt the vibe too: the Braves are without Austin Riley and Chris Sale, while the Phillies are contending even without Zack Wheeler.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

Precision vs. prevention: George Kirby’s strike-flooding meets Cleveland’s gloves-and-bullpen ethos, a tidy watchability recipe with built‑in tension. And with closer Emmanuel Clase on paid leave, the Guardians’ usual endgame certainty is wobblier than usual.

At 10.61, this gNERD sits a shade above today’s average and near the historic median, and the split explains why: a clear pNERD edge for Kirby (7.79) over Logan Allen (3.02). Kirby’s recent run has tracked like a metronome—six innings, one earned his last time out—and his profile screams watchable: plus velo and elite strike-throwing that trims the fat from innings. Allen’s the contrast piece—a quick worker by pace who’s coming off a nine‑run bruise and has worn some traffic lately, making first‑inning leverage feel real. Seattle now drags genuine star power thanks to Cal Raleigh’s 50‑homer season, giving Kirby rare cushion; Cleveland’s offense, meanwhile, has graded near the bottom all year and typically leans on defense, baserunning, and that top‑tier bullpen…which is thinner without Clase. Factor in Seattle’s rotation-bullpen handoffs being shakier than advertised, and you’ve got a tidy narrative arc: early Mariners advantage, then a Guardians scramble to shorten the game without their hammer.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Cleveland Guardians

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

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Texas Rangers @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

If you like a contrast, this is your fix: Oakland’s suddenly thunderous lineup gets a crack at a big-velocity prospect fresh off his best start, while a crafty lefty tries to navigate a depleted Texas order. It’s mid-tier by gNERD, but the bats and backstories add juice.

At 9.19, the game sits a tick below both today’s average and the historical median, mostly because the pNERD duo (2.89) is modest; the A’s stronger tNERD (7.27) nudges watchability upward thanks to a young, lively offense. Nick Kurtz just authored a four-homer night in July, Shea Langeliers keeps punishing mistakes, and Oakland has been one of the higher-scoring teams this month. Jack Leiter counters with upper-90s heat and, lately, better results—he spun seven scoreless with 10 strikeouts in his last outing—but his underlying estimators lag, which keeps his pNERD in the middle. Jeffrey Springs (A’s) is more changeup and command than gas; since arriving via the December trade and returning from TJ, he’s lived around mid-4s FIP/xFIP and is coming off 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball. Texas’ star power is thinned—Marcus Semien’s out, and Corey Seager just had an appendectomy—which subtly tilts the entertainment edge toward Oakland’s hitters.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Texas Rangers (2.01 rating)

Texas Rangers

Athletics

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 5:10p

Summary

If you like your watchability tilted toward bats and baserunning, this one’s your speed: Detroit’s strong tNERD (7.99) drags a modest gNERD (9.04) into “sure, flip it on” territory. The starters’ low pNERDs hint at contact and traffic, which is half the fun when one bullpen is shakier than the other.

The appeal here is lineup-forward baseball: the Tigers pair a healthy barrel rate and plus baserunning with a bullpen that likes to test blood pressure, while Kansas City counters with a steadier pen and gloves but a lighter bat profile. On the mound, Chris Paddack’s xFIP- sits at 111 with limited whiffs, yet the midseason pickup has kept the ball down just enough lately, including five innings of one-run ball against these Royals, and carries an 88:27 K:BB into the matchup. Across the diamond, Seth Lugo’s xFIP- of 107 and brisk pace meet the “reliable adult in the room” storyline after his fresh two-year extension and workhorse volume (99 K in 113 IP as of late July). If you’re here for stars, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino supply the oomph, but with Cole Ragans shelved the Royals lean even harder on Lugo and the ‘pen—exactly the ingredients for late-inning leverage.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Chris Paddack, Detroit Tigers

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

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Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

A rookie with a live fastball meets thin air and a rehabbing vet: Cade Horton takes his Coors Field exam while Germán Márquez returns from the IL. The gNERD is mid-pack, but Cubs-on-the-bases-plus-glove vs. Rockies-in-all-the-wrong-columns promises action, even if the matchup is lopsided.

At 8.93 gNERD, this sits below today’s average, yet Chicago’s top-tier tNERD (10.03) props it up: they barrel, run, and catch, which plays in a park that punishes hesitation. Horton’s above-average pNERD (6.68) is built on 95.7 velo, a brisk pace, and enough strike-throwing to let his stuff work; he hasn’t allowed a run in his most recent start and has been one of MLB’s stingiest run-preventers since July 1, which makes this altitude test the hook. On the other side, Márquez (pNERD 2.07) is activated from a biceps IL stint to start, adding uncertainty to a Rockies profile already dragged by poor contact quality and bullpen performance. The Cubs arrive licking wounds after a sweep, but their defense and baserunning can turn Coors singles into outs and extra bases into runs; if there’s drama, it likely comes late, where Chicago’s bullpen has been merely ordinary and Coors turns routine endings into coin flips.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Colorado Rockies

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Mid-pack gNERD, high-variance venue: average arms meet a homer-happy park and a slumping lineup, which is a recipe for weird. If you like launch‑angle roulette, Great American supplies the wheel and Zack Littell brings the chips. Cincinnati just traded for Littell, who’d been solid but homer‑prone (led MLB in HR allowed at the deadline), and he’s been a steady innings eater; that combo in this park nudges watchability even with modest pNERDs. Matthew Liberatore’s pNERD edges Littell’s and his season xFIP sits in the low‑4s, but he’s been giving shorter August outings, so the Cardinals’ sturdy defense and above‑average pen become part of the show. The team split—Cards tNERD 5.09 vs. Reds 2.88—tracks with the broader picture: St. Louis catches the ball and shortens games, while Cincinnati’s offense has been one of the league’s least potent of late. Still, GABP is a top‑two home‑run park, so even average contact can leave, especially against a fly‑ball‑friendly profile. If the Reds do anything electric, bet it’s on the bases—Elly De La Cruz supplies watchable chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds

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New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Come for the Yankees’ thunder and Carlos Rodón’s homecoming at the park where he threw a 2021 no-hitter; stay if you enjoy watching a top offense test a fledgling starter. Despite the nostalgia and power, the gNERD 8.0 trails today’s average because the pitching side (avg pNERD 2.14) isn’t built for a classic duel.

New York brings the league’s top-end power profile — first in HR and slug — and a deep barrel brigade, which props up that 8.82 tNERD and makes fireworks likely against a White Sox club with bottom-tier offense and a 48–86 slog. Rodón’s underlying line (xFIP ~3.82, xFIP- 91) fits a solid-but-not-aces-high pNERD; he’s run a strong August even while the walks have wobbled, including 5 BB in 5.2 one-hit frames last time out. He also knows this mound — he no-hit Cleveland here in 2021 — which adds a little extra juice. On the other side, Yoendrys Gómez is a recent waiver find turned rotation tryout; he’s flashed competence (7 K vs. DET; 4.2 scoreless with 6 K vs. MIN) but is still proving durability. Net: watch for Yankees bats and Rodón’s old-home cameo; flip elsewhere if you require symmetry.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Yankees (2.08 rating)

New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

Yoendrys Gómez, Chicago White Sox

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Baltimore Orioles @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

Pitcher-forward watch: Robbie Ray’s two‑strike four‑seamer (a real put‑away plan) squares off with tinkerer Dean Kremer in the majors’ stingiest home‑run park.
If this tilts late, San Francisco’s steadier glove-and-bullpen combo nudges the edge.

The gNERD is 7.68—lower half among today’s games—because both pNERDs are modest (Kremer 4.17, Ray 4.06) and our model dings both lineups, especially the Giants for light barrels and baserunning. Peripherals are near league average (xFIP-: Ray 102, Kremer 98), so think strike‑throwing chess more than whiff circus. Ray’s season carries bona fides (an All‑Star nod and a revived fastball‑first blueprint), while Kremer’s watchability hinges on how much he trusts the splitter he’s added and adjusted. Baltimore’s bats are thinned by outfield injuries (Colton Cowser concussion protocol; Tyler O’Neill’s wrist), which further depresses the run‑scoring ceiling at Oracle. Probables are indeed Kremer vs. Ray, so expect a tight, low‑variance game where sequencing and defense matter more than the three‑run homer; prioritize if you enjoy pitching geometry, deprioritize if you need fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

San Francisco Giants

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

On paper this is a lower-end watch, but Houston’s late switch to Cristian Javier (with Lance McCullers Jr. bumped to the bullpen) gives it a real-time subplot worth sampling. If Javier’s command resurfaces after his illness-shortened Orioles outing, a patched bullpen and a lineup boosted by Yordan Álvarez’s return could nudge a modest game into keep-watching territory. Overall gNERD sits at 6.23—bottom quartile historically and toward the low end of today’s slate—because both pNERDs are light and the Angels’ tNERD is dragged down by run prevention. Tyler Anderson’s underlying line (2025 FIP/xFIP: 5.63/5.29; velo ~89) suggests contact and traffic rather than whiffs, a tough recipe against even a banged‑up Astros order now reinserted with Álvarez. Javier’s return-from-TJ stuff has been more control-forward than bat-missing so far, and his last turn unraveled early; if that repeats, Houston’s bullpen—minus Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa and newly supplemented by Craig Kimbrel—may be busy. The Angels do bring thump (barrels) but their recent staff line (6.17 ERA, 17 HR allowed over 10 games) and shaky defense keep the upset path narrow. In short: low baseline NERD, watch for the Javier checkpoint and late-inning volatility.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros

Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Watch this one for Tampa Bay’s legs and the curiosity of Mitchell Parker’s sky‑high arm slot, not for an ace duel. With a bottom‑of‑the‑slate gNERD, it’s a fringe pick unless you enjoy contrasts and chaos.

The NERD math says “meh” because the pitching component drags: Adrian Houser’s profile is contact‑heavy, but his run‑independent numbers are respectable (road FIP/xFIP 3.69/4.31) and he’s been tougher on righties (2.88 FIP), even if his first Rays turns came with louder contact after an August trade. Parker offers novelty—he releases the ball from the highest arm angle among starters—but his indicators are rough (as a starter: 4.47 FIP, 5.04 xFIP; K‑BB% 6.4%), with better run prevention at home than on the road. If there’s entertainment, it’s Rays style versus Nats slop: Tampa Bay’s baserunning and a sturdy bullpen can manufacture action and shorten games, while Washington’s bullpen and defense have bled value of late. Add a watchable subplot—Washington’s youth movement (James Wood, CJ Abrams) facing a Rays club trying to squeeze wins wherever possible—and you’ve got a modestly compelling, low‑ceiling watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Washington Nationals

Adrian Houser, Tampa Bay Rays

Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals

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