MLB: What to watch on August 30, 2025

• 30 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

High-octane bats collide with high-octane stuff, and the chaos factor is non‑trivial. The Mets’ thunder (and occasional late-inning heartburn) versus Edward Cabrera’s video‑game changeup makes this the day’s watchability pick. Cabrera’s pNERD (8.18) tracks with the skills: an 86 xFIP- and upper‑90s heat, plus the party trick 96.5 mph changeup; he just punched out 10 over seven scoreless in his last start, so the stuff is very live. Peterson’s pNERD is a notch lower (5.91) but supported by run‑prevention indicators (FIP- in the low‑80s, xFIP- around mid‑80s) and a demonstrated ceiling — he spun a complete‑game shutout in June. The Mets’ tNERD (11.60) does the heavy lifting for gNERD 15.64, and you saw why: they just hung 19 in a record-setting bludgeoning of these Marlins, with Soto, Nimmo, Alonso and friends all leaving dents. Miami’s tNERD (5.60) is middling, but Cabrera’s whiffs keep the floor high while their iffy bullpen keeps the drama higher. Meanwhile, the Mets’ revamped pen can still veer from elite to volatile, which is watchable in its own way. Relative to today’s slate and even historic distributions, this sits near the top — premium stuff, star bats, and real chances for weirdness.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

David Peterson, New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

Speed, gloves, and two contrasting aces-by-approach make this a worthy watch. With a gNERD of 14.69—near the top of today’s slate and around the historic 95th percentile—expect action between pitches, not just walks and wall scrapers. Milwaukee’s baserunning and defense-driven tNERD collide with Toronto’s slick run prevention while Bo Bichette (13-game hit streak) and Brice Turang (12) keep the contact meter running. Priester’s profile is quietly sturdy (xFIP- 94) and fast-paced (16.8s), and the Brewers have ridden his starts to 15 straight team wins; a minor midweek wrist scare cleared for him to take the ball. On the other side, Gausman’s underlying signals remain strong (xFIP- 93 with plus strike and whiff rates), even if August results tilted uneven; the splitter still misses bats. Bullpen volatility adds spice: closer Trevor Megill is on the IL, likely pushing Abner Uribe into the ninth, while Milwaukee also expects Jackson Chourio back, injecting top-end speed and defense.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Toronto Blue Jays

Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:15p

Summary

Gilbert’s splitter vs. Cleveland’s gloves-and-bullpen act — this is top-tier watchability today. A gNERD of 13.22 plus one true frontline arm is a fine reason to park here.

Logan Gilbert’s pNERD is the day’s headliner, and the model agrees with the eyes: a 59 xFIP- with power strikes, fresh off a career-best 13 K gem that showcased the splitter he’s leaned into this year. Gavin Williams brings upper-90s heat and the wild-card factor — he flirted with a no-hitter on August 6, then walked four in 3.1 innings his last time out; the pitch quality is real, the strike-throwing less so. Seattle’s side of the watchability ledger is offense-forward (top-10 by wRC+), light on the leather, which pairs neatly with Cleveland’s profile: run prevention via defense and a still-formidable bullpen even without its usual closer. The mismatch comes at the plate, where the Guardians have lived near the bottom of MLB by wRC+ and barrel rate, so Williams likely needs to keep it in the zone to match Gilbert’s efficiency. Expect a strikeout-forward game that tightens late, where Cleveland’s relief depth and Seattle’s shaky fielding could nudge the outcome after the starters exit.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Cleveland Guardians

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

Cristopher Sánchez’s top-shelf indicators meet a Chris Sale comeback, giving this one real appointment-TV vibes. Between an NL East leader humming along and a Cy-worthy lefty reappearing, this gNERD 12.72 tilt has both quality and plot. Philadelphia’s side carries the watchability: a robust 8.37 tNERD fueled by plus baserunning and a deep order that just toggled from a seven-homer bludgeoning to a 2-1 squeeze, with Kyle Schwarber coming off a four-homer game for extra sizzle. Sánchez brings a 9.07 pNERD that matches the model—he’s living in the mid-2s by xFIP with elite K-BB splits, particularly at home, so there’s real swing-and-miss with strike-throwing to boot. Atlanta’s tNERD (2.99) drags thanks to shaky baserunning and bullpen metrics, so the Braves’ contribution to watchability likely hinges on Sale’s return off the IL; novelty points matter, and his pre-injury run still looked like a front-line arm. Relative to today’s slate (avg gNERD 10.91; range 4.92–15.64) and historically (top quartile kicks in around 12.00), this sits comfortably in the “prioritize” bucket—Sánchez’s skills plus a marquee activation beat a merely average matchup almost every time.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Two rookies with very different calling cards make this worth a look: the Yankees’ 100-mph upstart Cam Schlittler versus the White Sox’s Rule 5 changeup craftsman Shane Smith. Add a Bronx lineup currently pulverizing baseballs and a shorthanded Chicago outfield, and you get high ceiling with medium chaos.

With a gNERD of 12.46, this sits well above today’s average (10.91) and above the historical 75th percentile; that’s mostly the Yankees’ elite tNERD (8.88), driven by top-tier barrel rate and a power binge that’s produced MLB’s leading home-run total. The Sox counter with a bottom-quartile tNERD (2.62), and they’re missing Luis Robert Jr. after a hamstring IL stint.

Schlittler’s pNERD (8.64) aligns with the eye test: a 97–100 mph fastball, an xFIP- of 88, and a debut that featured seven strikeouts and the seven fastest Yankees pitches this season. Smith’s pNERD (4.78) understates some intrigue: the former No. 1 Rule 5 pick now leans on a low-90s changeup he throws over 20% with strong whiffs, and he’s recently logged five scoreless vs. Detroit and eight Ks in Seattle.

If you want loud contact and a live-wire rookie arm, this rates as one of today’s better watches—even if the matchup tilts pinstriped.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Yankees (2.08 rating)

New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

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Texas Rangers @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

Rookie mystery vs. veteran certainty: the A’s hand a debut to Mason Barnett, and the Rangers counter with trade-deadline addition Merrill Kelly, fresh off seven scoreless. With a gNERD of 11.32 (above today’s average), this tilts watchable on stuff and storylines rather than star power alone. Barnett arrives with a power fastball/slider mix and prospect buzz but uneven Triple-A results, the sort of volatility that can swing a game (and a viewing experience) fast; it’s his first MLB look, so pNERD is a blank slate. Kelly is the stabilizer: a league-average-ish pNERD (5.23) backed by a tidy xFIP- (91) and, most recently, seven shutout frames versus Cleveland after joining Texas at the deadline. Team-wise, Oakland’s higher tNERD (7.14) leans on real bats and a lot of positive “luck” to unwind, but porous defense and a shaky pen can turn tight innings into circus acts, especially if Barnett’s command wobbles. Texas’ tNERD (5.26) rides crisp defense and sneaky baserunning, and the lineup’s been lively despite losing Corey Seager (appendectomy), Marcus Semien (foot), Nathan Eovaldi (rotator cuff) and Evan Carter. If Barnett throws strikes, stay late; if not, Kelly may keep it brisk and tidy.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Texas Rangers (2.01 rating)

Texas Rangers

Athletics

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

Mason Barnett, Athletics

No detailed stats available

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San Diego Padres @ Minnesota Twins, 4:10p

Summary

A sneaky-above-average gNERD meets real-world intrigue: Nick Pivetta’s strike-throwing and San Diego’s starry bullpen square off against newly acquired Taj Bradley, still finding his Twins footing. If you like pitching with contrast—command vs. electricity—this is your mid-tier watch with enough plot to keep you parked.

At 10.96, the gNERD sits a tick above today’s average (10.91) and near the historical median, which tracks with Pivetta’s underlying strength and San Diego’s bullpen heft. Pivetta’s 2025 FIP as a starter sits around 3.20 with a healthy 20.6% K-BB%, and he’s particularly crisp the first time through (2.30 FIP), a good omen for early-innings pace. Bradley brings premium velocity but far shakier indicators at Target Field; his home FIP is 4.74 and it balloons versus lefties at home (6.03), a pressure point the Padres’ left-handed bats can probe. The matchup is framed by context: Minnesota flipped Griffin Jax to Tampa Bay to land Bradley at the deadline, and his last turn saw the White Sox tag him for seven in five.

San Diego’s watchability lift is the bullpen—multiple All-Stars, top-of-the-league run prevention for long stretches—which pairs nicely with Pivetta’s efficiency if they’re handed a lead. That, plus a live road test against a scuffling Twins club, makes this a solid click.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Minnesota Twins

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 4:15p

Summary

This one’s a volatility special: Jack Flaherty’s above‑average peripherals (xFIP‑ 87) meet the same Royals who just cuffed him, while Detroit’s lineup brings barrels and baserunning heat. Kansas City counters with newly recalled Stephen Kolek, so expect early‑game feel‑out and late‑game bullpen heft to decide it.

At gNERD 10.90, it sits a touch above today’s average and near the historical middle—worth your screen without monopolizing it. Flaherty’s pNERD 6.09 signals upside, but the immediate rematch after KC tagged him last week adds swingy intrigue more than it kills the watch. Kolek’s pNERD 2.91 and xFIP‑ 106 read pitch‑to‑contact, and he’s up because Michael Wacha hit the paternity list, making this likely a short‑leash audition before a capable Royals pen. The NERD components lean Detroit: top‑quartile barrel rate and plus baserunning feed an 8.06 tNERD, while KC’s 4.74 leans on defense/bullpen and carries a big positive luck flag, meaning their results may be a bit ahead of their contact quality. Add in real stakes—a playoff race and a series to grab—and you’ve got a solid watch with contrast at every turn.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

If you like contrasts, this one has a clean split: the Dodgers bring a high-octane lineup and airtight pen, while Arizona counters with speed and vibes—and a starter coming off a mess. L.A.’s Tyler Glasnow owns the better pNERD (5.61) and run estimators (xFIP- 88) with upper-90s heat, but his last outing featured four walks and three runs in four innings, so the ride can jolt.

The gNERD sits at 10.47—slightly above the historical median but middle-of-the-pack for today—which tracks: team NERDs favor the Dodgers (7.34) thanks to elite barrels and a top-shelf bullpen, while Arizona’s average offense plus plus-baserunning (tNERD 5.37 with +0.88 baserunning) is offset by a shaky pen. Recent form backs it up: the Dodgers’ bullpen has run a 3.41 ERA over the last 10 games, and they’ll like the matchup against Eduardo Rodríguez, whose pNERD is low (2.61) and xFIP- is worse (107) after a 2.1-inning, five-run stumble in Milwaukee.

If you need a storyline hook, Arizona just blanked L.A. to open the series, so Glasnow’s miss-bats versus the D-backs’ run game is the watch. If Rodríguez finds enough strikes to reach the Dodgers’ deeper bullpen first, this tilts toward L.A.; if not, expect traffic and scoring swings.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

Two post-op righties square off at Fenway: Dustin May tries to steady Boston’s deadline-boosted rotation while Johan Oviedo, freshly back from Tommy John and a lat strain, looks to carry his brief strikeout pop beyond four innings. If you like late-inning theater, Boston’s Whitlock–Chapman finishing kick versus a post‑Bednar Pirates bullpen tilts the “watch” needle toward the home side.

The gNERD (10.37) sits near the historical median and roughly today’s average, and it’s mostly Boston’s tNERD doing the lifting: better baserunning, gloves, and a top-end bullpen make routine balls livelier and the seventh inning matter more. May’s last run-out was bumpy (five allowed vs. New York), but his Fenway indicators are kinder (home xFIP ~3.9 vs. ~5.0 away), so there’s bounce-back potential if he keeps the ball in the park. Oviedo just punched out five over four in St. Louis and has 14 Ks in 10.2 MLB innings since returning, but workload caps could surface.

Context nudges viewers Boston’s way: the Red Sox’s late-innings are humming (Whitlock ascendant, Chapman dominant, and Justin Slaten back), while Pittsburgh’s offense has sagged and its closer now wears pinstripes. In short, the pitch-to-contact bits might be middling, but the contrast between Boston’s crisp run prevention and Pittsburgh’s thin lineup makes this a solid, if not must‑clear-your-calendar, watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Boston Red Sox

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

Dustin May, Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles @ San Francisco Giants, 4:15p

Summary

Trevor Rogers is the hook here: a lefty on a heater whose underlying indicators (think xFIP- in the low 80s) match the eye test, set against a Giants lineup that’s been thumping everything in sight. Add Carson Seymour’s MLB debut to the mix, and this one carries genuine “let’s see what happens” energy.

Despite modest team tNERDs, the gNERD lands above the historical median because the pitching drives the watchability: Rogers’ recent run has been real, powered by firmer command and a rebuilt lower half after work at Driveline, and supported by run estimators (FIP) far kinder than the scoreboard alone. He’s coming off 7 IP, 1 R, 9 K, and he’s allowed one run or fewer in a string of starts, which is exactly what you want when facing an offense fresh off a 15-run outburst.

Seymour brings debut volatility: a mid-to-upper-90s fastball/slider profile with swing-and-miss AAA numbers, but zero big-league track record; that’s a feature, not a bug, for watchability. The Orioles are still shorthanded (yes, even Adley), so this tilts toward a classic “ace vs. hot bats vs. wild card” viewing experience—clean, tense innings from Rogers, and a first look at whether the Giants found something in Seymour.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

San Francisco Giants

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Carson Seymour, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

Coors plus a rookie’s second start is a fine recipe for chaos; the gNERD sits a tick below today’s slate average, but the setting and storylines push it up the queue. Chicago’s strong tNERD meets a Rockies club auditioning kids, which tends to produce action rather than crispness.

At the plate, the Cubs bring barrels, speed, and elite defense (top-tier tNERD components) into MLB’s most run-amplifying yard, so even routine contact can turn loud. On the mound the uncertainty is the show: Javier Assad was just recalled and looked sharp in his latest outing (6 IP, 1 R with a heavy ground-ball mix), the kind of profile that can survive Coors if the ball stays down. Colorado counters with 6'6" rookie McCade Brown, whose debut featured a 94–96 mph sinker/slider look but also four runs in 3.2 innings; he’s scheduled for career start No. 2 here. If you want extra juice, Chicago’s bats just thumped Denver anyway, with Dansby Swanson homering twice and driving in six. Add in that the Cubs are still chasing real stakes in the standings, and this projects as watchable for runs, rookie volatility, and late-inning bullpen theater rather than a duel.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Colorado Rockies

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

No detailed stats available

McCade Brown, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

If you like contact that flirts with the seats, this one’s a coin flip with upside. Great American supercharges homers, and Andrew Abbott’s changeup-driven leap gives the watchability a helpful shove.
The model says gNERD 8.65 sits below today’s average, but the park plus two interesting young arms keep it viable. Abbott has shifted into more strike-throwing and a bigger changeup share with a real K% jump this year; if that feel holds, he can neutralize righties despite modest velo. Opposite him, Michael McGreevy is a command-and-grounders type whose big-league sample suggests innings and contact management over whiffs, so location is the whole plot.
Context helps: Cincinnati’s offense has sagged (bottom-tier wRC+), their bullpen has wobbled, and their playoff odds have been trending the wrong way, which subtly tilts the entertainment value toward “can Abbott carry them?” rather than “will the bats mash?”
Injuries strip some name value (Cardinals: Arenado, Donovan, Burleson; Reds: Stephenson), but the probable Abbott–McGreevy matchup is intact. If either misses up, the park turns mistakes into souvenirs; if they don’t, St. Louis’ cleaner defense/bullpen grades keep it watchable without chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Rays-leaning watch: Pepiot is the steadier arm, Tampa has the legs and the pen, and Washington arrives on a six-game skid with its catching group thinned. As mid-card options go, the mound mismatch—Pepiot trending fine while Irvin searches—nudges this above background noise.

gNERD 7.47 sits below today’s average, but Pepiot’s pNERD 6.02 with a near‑average xFIP‑ (96) gives his half real watchability against a lineup that too often strands traffic; Irvin’s 116 xFIP‑ and pNERD 1.69 drag the entertainment index the other way. Pepiot also just threw five scoreless on a light, workload‑managed outing; Irvin has been tagged and short‑leashed most of August. Tampa Bay’s stronger tNERD (6.51) is buoyed by elite baserunning and a trustworthy bullpen, and the speed has a headliner: Chandler Simpson owns MLB’s fastest home‑to‑first this year, a tidy reason to keep the remote holstered when he’s up. Washington’s thin tNERD (0.72) mirrors the recent results and injuries behind the plate, though there’s star‑watch appeal in James Wood and C.J. Abrams if they get something hittable.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Washington Nationals

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 4:10p

Summary

This is the day’s gNERD floor, but Houston’s late‑inning machine and Yordan’s fresh return keep a channel‑flip finger hovering. Tune more for bullpen theater and an Arrighetti health check than for a duel of out‑pitches.

Both pNERDs are south of today’s average, and the shapes match: Hendricks’ xFIP is poor and he’s especially vulnerable to right‑handed bats (2.35 HR/9, 5.68 FIP vs RHB), a lousy fit against Altuve/Correa should the ball stay off the ground. Arrighetti missed four months with a fractured thumb and is still chasing his first big‑league win since March; the intrigue is how deep he can go before ceding to the bullpen. That’s where Houston shines: the back end has been one of the league’s real strengths, giving this low‑pNERD game some late‑inning watchability. The lineup just re‑added Yordan Alvarez after a long hand‑fracture layoff, which upgrades the “outcome volatility” meter on any given swing. On the other side, the Angels’ barrel rate says occasional thunder, but their defense has bled runs all year, an accelerant for Astros contact. With Houston’s tNERD buoyed by a big Luck component, the regression gods nudge this toward a modestly watchable Astros‑tilted night rather than a full pass.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

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