MLB: What to watch on August 31, 2025

• 31 August 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

It’s Skubal Day, which is basically a watchability hack: a 14.19 pNERD rocket fueled by 97 mph and a 57 xFIP- makes this the top gNERD on the board. Kansas City answers with Michael Wacha back from the paternity list and a stingy bullpen, plus Bobby Witt Jr. swinging through an 18-game hit streak, so it’s not a foregone conclusion.

Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young, brings elite whiffs and strike-throwing that our model loves; Detroit’s bats add flair via barrels and speed, even if the bullpen taxes the vibe. The Royals’ case is defense-and-relief first and offense second; they catch the ball, shorten games, and lean on Witt while the rest of the order lags. Wacha’s profile is craft-over-gas—modest strikeouts and a league-average xFIP signal fewer fireworks, but his recent run prevention has been steady, which pairs neatly with Kansas City’s late-inning infrastructure.

With today’s gNERD spectrum running 5.92–15.29, this sits at the summit because it’s an ace at peak powers facing a playoff-chaser that turns contact into outs. If you’re ranking screens, pick the one where Skubal’s K/BB theatrics meet Witt’s streak and see whether Detroit’s high-torque lineup or KC’s gloves-and-bullpen tempo dictates the pace.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Go back to top of page

Milwaukee Brewers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:37a

Summary

Reinvented ace vs. aging legend is a pretty good hook: Brandon Woodruff’s crafty new look meets Max Scherzer’s guile, with enough bats on both sides to punish mistakes. At 14.54, this gNERD sits near the top of today’s slate and around the 95th percentile historically, so it merits your primary screen.

Woodruff’s pNERD (8.01) is earned: his xFIP- of 78 points to real run-prevention skill, and he’s rebuilt the arsenal post-surgery—less slider, more cutter, plus a 93 mph four-seamer that’s driving elite whiffs despite the velocity dip. Scherzer’s pNERD (3.42) trails; the xFIP- (107) says league-average-ish, and his season has been managed around a nagging thumb that’s trimmed pitch counts, though he still profiles tough on righties by track record.

The team side helps the watchability math: Milwaukee’s tNERD (9.86) is powered by real on-field action—plus baserunning, defense, and a bullpen that can shorten games—against a Toronto club with a productive core (Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Springer) and strong gloves (tNERD 7.80), but a relief corps thinned by injuries. Add the confirmed matchup—Woodruff vs. Scherzer—and you’ve got star power with contrasting methods: Woodruff’s model-friendly precision against Scherzer’s experience and edge-of-the-knife sequencing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Toronto Blue Jays

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

Texas Rangers @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

Top-shelf watchability here: a 14.11 gNERD puts this in today’s upper tier and near the historic 95th percentile, with Jacob deGrom meeting a lively A’s lineup in hitter-leaning West Sacramento. DeGrom already silenced the A’s for six scoreless back in April, and he’s doing it now with 97 mph fastballs and a consciously dialed‑back approach post–TJ rather than pure max effort.

The pNERD edge is real (deGrom 9.82 vs. Ginn 5.72): deGrom’s 97+ velocity and strong xFIP- (78) match the eye test, while J.T. Ginn is the volatile counter—messy surface results at home but a legitimately sharp underlying xFIP vs. righties in the mid‑2s that can bite Texas’ right-handed bats. The tNERD contrast fuels entertainment: Texas pairs plus baserunning with elite defense, whereas the A’s bring youth and power with error‑prone gloves—great for traffic, ties, and lead changes.

Context helps, too: Sutter Health Park has played more offense‑friendly than Oakland, and the A’s bats have been lively; if ROY hopeful Nick Kurtz is back after a clean oblique MRI, add more left‑handed thunder. With Corey Seager sidelined after an appendectomy, deGrom may need to carry a bit more of the load—fortunately, that’s sort of his thing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.)

Recommended broadcast: Texas Rangers (2.01 rating)

Texas Rangers

Athletics

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies, 4:10p

Summary

Two power arms and one must-see splitter push this into appointment viewing: a gNERD 14 lands near today’s upper tier, and both starters bring swing-and-miss with real stakes attached. With Zack Wheeler sidelined, Philadelphia hands the ball to Jesús Luzardo, fresh off a 12-K exclamation point and a string of quality starts; Atlanta counters with rookie Hurston Waldrep, whose cartoonish splitter has become the pitch you tell friends about.

The NERD split explains the watchability: Phillies’ robust tNERD (8.48) reflects an entertaining brand built on plus defense and aggressive baserunning—Trea Turner and Bryson Stott push the action while the lineup surrounding Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper supplies damage. Meanwhile, Luzardo’s recent form (velo up, whiffs back) and top-quartile pNERD make it a good test for a Braves offense that’s been more ordinary than its reputation this season.

Waldrep’s pNERD rides that splitter—low spin, big fade, and whiff rates that turn at-bats into events—plus a firmer mix that’s helped him throw more strikes since his recall. If he lands the supporting pitches, hitters must honor multiple planes and the split becomes unfair. Philadelphia’s bullpen volatility has been sanded down by the trade for Jhoan Durán, so leads late are more likely to stick; Atlanta’s relief corps has shuffled pieces lately.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s precision (pNERD 8.21, elite xFIP- 77) meets a D‑backs club that runs well and has quietly handled him before—this is the kind of taut matchup that rewards patience. With a gNERD of 12.63—well above today’s average and near the historic 75th percentile—the late innings should matter, especially with L.A.’s deep, injury-tested bullpen.

Yamamoto did stumble once against Arizona, then answered with seven scoreless in the rematch; his strikeouts, velocity, and command underpin the high pNERD and give L.A. the on-paper edge. Brandon Pfaadt’s profile is more mortal (pNERD 4.43, xFIP- 99 with a light swinging-strike rate), yet he’s 2-0 against the Dodgers this year, so the first trip through the order is sneakily pivotal.

Team-wise, the Dodgers bring the louder watchability inputs (tNERD 7.28 with top-tier barrels and a bullpen that’s carried weight even as Alex Vesia hits the IL), while Arizona offers speed, defense, and contact—but a volatile relief corps that can turn tense into messy.

Arizona just took the last meeting behind timely pop, setting up a tidy rubber match vibe; if Pfaadt navigates Ohtani/Betts/Freeman twice, this one earns its slot on your screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Go back to top of page

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

Mets thunder versus Alcantara’s resurgent heat is a fair trade for your eyeballs. With a gNERD of 12.48, this sits above today’s average and just past the historic 75th percentile—watchable by design, not accident.

The Mets just spent two games bludgeoning the Marlins—19 runs in one, then 11 in another—and even set franchise marks with that 19-spot and a month stuffed with homers, so the “will-they-punch-a-hole-in-the-scorebug?” factor is very real. Pete Alonso recently became the club’s all-time home run leader, and this lineup hasn’t exactly cooled since. The team-side tilt in tNERD (NYM 12.01 vs MIA 5.57) owes to New York’s barrels, baserunning, and even broadcast vibes, making any Mets game feel bigger. On the mound, Sandy Alcantara’s pNERD is the stronger of the two and the story’s good: post‑TJ, the velo’s back and he’s coming off sturdy work (7 IP, 2 ER vs ATL; a recent quality start). Kodai Senga remains box-office for the ghost fork, but command and pace have dragged—walks and short outings have cropped up since his return. In short: star power plus a roaring Mets offense outweigh middling pNERDs, making this one worth a priority click.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

Two 26-year-old power arms and a lineup makeover make this a sneaky high-watch game: Hunter Brown’s August heater meets José Soriano’s turbo sinker. With Yordan Álvarez activated and Carlos Correa back in Houston, the Astros’ order suddenly plays like October, which is bad news for an Angels defense that grades near the bottom.

gNERD sits at 11.88, comfortably above both today’s average and the historical median, and it’s doing most of that work through the mound: both starters carry top-quartile pNERDs (~8.4) with strong xFIP- marks (Brown 73; Soriano 81) and mid‑90s velocity that misses bats without dawdling between pitches. Brown’s been rolling, capped by a 1.71 August and another turn in this spot, while Soriano’s heavy sinker/curve mix returns after a brief paternity-list detour.

Team-wise, Houston’s tNERD edge comes from gloves and a plus bullpen, and the Correa/Álvarez bump raises their contact quality ceiling; LA’s profile is more “occasional thunder” (barrels) amid weak fielding and relief work. Narrative juice helps, too: Brown formally gets the ball here, not a fill‑in, against a lineup just reloaded by Álvarez’s return and Correa’s deadline reunion. If you’re allocating screens, prioritize the pitching duel and the chance to see Houston’s retooled core stress‑test Soriano’s command.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Go back to top of page

San Diego Padres @ Minnesota Twins, 10:05a

Summary

Padres–Twins rates solidly watchable because San Diego brings a super-bullpen to back an opener while Joe Ryan’s bat-missing ways try to stop a lineup that just hung a dozen. gNERD 11.70 sits above today’s average, and the appeal tilts toward how these staffs are built to decide things late.

San Diego’s high tNERD is doing the obvious: the bullpen is the show, turbocharged by the deadline addition of Mason Miller to a unit that led MLB in FIP, WPA, and fWAR entering August; if Morgan opens clean, the relief parade is why you tune in. Rookie righty David Morgan has touched the high-90s and is being used as an opener here after working mostly in relief, a role the club has telegraphed in previews. Across the diamond, Ryan’s pNERD edge tracks with his underlying run prevention: a tidy xFIP around the mid-3s at home plus elite K-BB% against righties, even if his last two turns were clunky. Recent context helps: San Diego just bludgeoned Minnesota’s pen and Manny Machado crossed 1,000 hits with the Padres, while the Twins’ injury list (including Pablo López) dims their tNERD.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Minnesota Twins

David Morgan, San Diego Padres

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Washington Nationals, 10:35a

Summary

Rookie-vs-rookie with teeth: Ian Seymour arrives off a five-scoreless, eight‑K first start, while Brad Lord’s contact management and run prevention have been quietly solid. Add a Rays club that runs well and a Nationals team stretched thin by injuries, and this gNERD 11.08 sits just above today’s average for a reason.

Seymour’s debut was the real thing—five clean frames and eight strikeouts—and he now gets a softer lineup that’s been power‑starved and just dropped seven straight. Lord isn’t just a placeholder: his 2025 xFIP hovers mid‑3s, and he’s handled righties well (away vs RHB: .204 AVG, 0.90 WHIP; 2.57 FIP), offering a legit foil to Tampa Bay’s right‑leaning thump. Washington’s rotation/bullpen depth is wobbling after MacKenzie Gore hit the IL, which nudges late‑inning edge toward a Rays pen that’s been a team strength by our model. If you’re scouting stars, James Wood’s bat speed and top‑tier quality of contact are worth your time, even amid the team’s broader struggles, and Junior Caminero has been mashing for Tampa Bay all month. With above‑average pNERDs on both sides (Seymour 8.48; Lord 6.57) and a clean contrast—Rays’ speed/pen vs. Nats’ shaky defense/bullpen—this profiles as a tidy, watchable pitchers’ duel with bonus prospect wattage.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Washington Nationals

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

Go back to top of page

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a

Summary

gNERD says “middle of the pack,” but Boston’s high tNERD and a bullpen headlined by freshly-extended Aroldis Chapman tilt this toward watchable. If Lucas Giolito carries over his eight scoreless innings from Baltimore and Mitch Keller’s volatility surfaces, the late frames at Fenway should matter—and Boston owns those.

Giolito’s pNERD is modest, yet his underlying run estimators (FIP/xFIP around 4.28/4.05) and a recent run of deeper outings suggest competence rather than chaos, which pairs nicely with a relief corps that’s been one of MLB’s best and just got organizational buy‑in via Chapman’s extension. Keller’s pNERD edges Giolito’s and he’s coming off a season-high nine strikeouts with 16 quality starts, but the preceding hiccups keep the watchability rooted in “what shows up today?” territory.

As for the lineups, Boston’s tNERD pops thanks to barrels, baserunning, and improved glove work, while Pittsburgh’s offense has dragged near the bottom by wRC+, limiting their half of the entertainment value. Add in late-inning context: the Red Sox pen has been nails, whereas the Pirates moved David Bednar at the deadline, softening their endgame. If you’re triaging the slate, this is watchable for the matchup contrasts and the bullpen edge, not for ace-on-ace fireworks.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Boston Red Sox

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

Go back to top of page

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

This one’s a tug-of-war: Cleveland’s gloves-and-bullpen edge meets Seattle’s louder bats, and Bibee’s better-at-home version is the swing vote. The gNERD sits below today’s average because the pNERDs are modest, but the stakes and late-inning texture boost watchability.

Tanner Bibee hasn’t been dominant overall, yet his home indicators are real (roughly mid-3s FIP at Progressive with cleaner K-BB%), which pairs nicely with Cleveland’s defense-and-relief model. Bryce Miller is back from an elbow IL stint and still sharpening the edges; he surrendered four runs in five innings in his first start back and was homer-prone during rehab, the kind of profile Cleveland can stress with contact and speed. Offenses contrast: Seattle has played like a top-10 group by wRC+ lately, while Cleveland’s bats lag, leaning on run prevention and a bullpen that’s been among the league’s better units by FIP, with Cade Smith capably closing. Recent form nudges the needle: the Guardians have stacked tight wins while the Mariners have bled on the road, so late innings could matter more than the openers suggest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Cleveland Guardians

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

If you want action more than artistry, this leans watchable: the Cubs’ high-tNERD profile runs into Coors’ helium and a Rockies club that’s been historically rough. It’s not a duel, but it could be a showcase for Chicago’s defense and baserunning to turn contact into chaos.

gNERD sits mid-pack today at 8.23 because the starters are ordinary: Matthew Boyd’s pNERD (5.21) and league-near xFIP (96-) suggest competence, not dominance, while Tanner Gordon’s pNERD (2.18) and worse peripherals (117- xFIP-) flag risk. Boyd already muzzled Colorado once this year (6 IP, 8 K, 0 ER earned), and Gordon has recently pieced together back-to-back six-inning, one-run turns, so there’s at least a hint of intrigue on both sides. Chicago’s tNERD (9.96) does the heavy lifting here: elite run prevention plays—think Pete Crow-Armstrong and friends vacuuming the gaps—plus a lineup that barrels and runs. The broader storyline helps: the Cubs are firmly in the Wild Card mix with a soft remaining slate, while Colorado has already been bounced from contention amid a historically brutal year. Tune in for Cubs-on-rollerskates defense, opportunistic offense, and the chance that Coors turns even average contact into crooked numbers; skip if you’re hunting for a clinic in missing bats.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Colorado Rockies

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

Go back to top of page

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, 9:10a

Summary

HR-happy GABP plus a playoff-pressed Reds side and a recent upswing from Brady Singer nudges this medium-tier gNERD into “worth a flip” territory. If Andre Pallante’s sinker keeps it on the ground, St. Louis’ gloves and bullpen give this more tension than the matchup vibes imply.

At 8.11, the gNERD sits below today’s slate average and near the lower quartile historically, and the pNERDs are middling (Singer 4.30, Pallante 4.03). That said, Singer’s been sharp lately, including a one-hit, nine‑strikeout, six‑inning gem last week and just two runs allowed over his last 18 innings, while Cincinnati has leaned on his quick tempo (16.1s) to keep games moving. Pallante’s been wobbly, with losses piling up in August despite a slightly better xFIP‑ (96 vs Singer’s 102), which adds volatility in a park that cranks homers. The Reds’ offense has scuffled (around bottom‑five by wRC+), and their bullpen lags the Cards’, so late innings tilt toward St. Louis if it’s close. Injuries also sap Cardinals thump (Arenado, Donovan among those sidelined), raising the premium on defense and run prevention. In short: average pitching aesthetics, juicy home‑run context, real stakes for Cincinnati—watchable, if not appointment.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Go back to top of page

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

This one’s a lineup-led watch: the Yankees’ bats (tNERD 8.80, fueled by a 11.7% barrel rate) are the draw, while both starters carry low pNERDs that temper the hype. Storylines help: New York rides a seven-game streak and a nine-game road run, Luis Gil is back after a four‑month lat strain, and Martín Pérez just logged seven one‑hit, scoreless innings and has looked sharp since returning from the IL.

The gNERD sits at 7.38—below today’s slate average (11.05) and the historical median (10.10)—because the average pNERD is just 1.70: Gil’s profile is dragged by a rough xFIP- (124) and tepid swing/strike rates despite good velocity, while Pérez’s contact‑management act comes with limited whiffs and a middling xFIP- (105). The team contrast props up the watchability: New York’s offense grades well across skill metrics, and Chicago’s tNERD (2.55) suffers from negative batting, fielding, and baserunning, though a respectable bullpen hints at late‑inning resistance. If you want a clean pitching duel, look elsewhere; if you want to see whether Pérez’s soft‑contact wizardry can dull a barrel‑happy lineup—and whether Gil’s stuff can outpace his peripherals—this is your kind of coin flip, with the standings‑chasing subplot as a bonus.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Yankees (2.08 rating)

New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Martín Pérez, Chicago White Sox

Go back to top of page

Baltimore Orioles @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

A marquee name and a newcomer share the marquee, but the math says “background viewing.” This sits at the bottom of today’s gNERD range (5.92), with both pNERDs below today’s average, so you’re tuning in more for story than stuff.

Justin Verlander is fresh off becoming the 10th pitcher ever to reach 3,500 strikeouts, a lovely milestone tucked inside a choppier season, and that historical weight is the primary hook here; he still brings mid-90s velocity, though his xFIP- sits at 111, i.e., a tick worse than league average. Across the way, Tomoyuki Sugano’s MLB apprenticeship has been steady more than splashy; August results have been kind, but his underlying xFIP- at 112 and light whiff rates keep the pNERD muted. Baltimore’s offense just detonated at Oracle Park to snap San Francisco’s six-game streak, while the Giants’ recent power binge has leaned on Willy Adames—useful color, not prophecy. The team-side signals point modestly toward the home club’s defense and bullpen (better tNERD components) and away from Baltimore’s glovework and relief, which nudges watchability from “pitching duel” toward “who blinks first.” If nothing else, it’ll be well-produced; the Giants’ broadcast grades out nicely.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

San Francisco Giants

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on August 30, 2025
• Next →
  MLB: What to watch on September 1, 2025