MLB: What to watch on September 1, 2025

• 01 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

This is the slate’s top gNERD, and it earns it: Manaea’s run-suppressing skill set (xFIP- 79, brisk pace) squares off with Morton’s bend‑it‑till‑it‑breaks curveball act, a contrast that tends to keep eyes on the screen. Add two lineups with barrel potential and a likely bullpen cameo fest, and you’ve got nine innings worth sticking with.

Manaea’s profile looks better than his recent results; he just ran a 31 K, 4 BB month despite too many hits, and he now faces a Tigers club that tightened its division lead over the weekend. Morton, picked up at the deadline, has been roughly league‑average by the peripherals and drew a public nudge from A.J. Hinch to lean on the breaker more; when he does, outcomes stabilize, when he doesn’t, they don’t. NERD tilts the watchability edge to the Mets: elite barrels, plus baserunning, and a solid pen with some positive‑regression juice. Detroit brings speed and contact but a shakier bullpen, and September call‑ups could shuffle their late innings. One extra wrinkle: with the Mets’ rotation in flux around Kodai Senga, Carlos Mendoza may ride a quicker hook, upping the relief usage and the drama.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Detroit Tigers

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 1:10p

Summary

Triple‑digit rookie chaos meets savvy, speed‑happy lineups: Jacob Misiorowski’s 99–100 mph fastball and top‑tier pNERD (11.7) make this a high‑ceiling watch, while Taijuan Walker’s contact‑leaning profile injects just enough volatility to keep the remote holstered. At a gNERD of 16.37, this is among today’s very best, and it even sits above the 95th percentile historically—appointment baseball if you like whiffs, wheels, and tight late innings.

Misiorowski arrived in June with the Brewers’ top‑prospect billing and has since piled strikeouts, now making roughly his 11th MLB start with 65 K in 43.2 IP and opponents hitting .175; the stuff is real, the walk rate a live subplot. Walker lands on the other end of pNERD: a 108 xFIP‑ and near‑absent whiff/strike rates in our inputs point to balls in play—great news for two athletic clubs whose tNERDs are buoyed by baserunning and defense. Milwaukee’s late game gets trickier with closer Trevor Megill on the IL, likely pushing Abner Uribe forward. Philadelphia just struck out 13 times in a taut loss to Atlanta, and Misiorowski’s heat/slider combo will test that swing/decision mix immediately.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:10a

Summary

Hunter Greene’s 100 mph fastball meets Toronto’s glove-first, contact-smothering machine — a premium stuff-vs.-system watch. With a top-tier gNERD, this one rates near the front of today’s slate thanks mostly to Greene’s ace-level pNERD.

Greene has the headline tools: a 99.4 mph heater, ~30% K rate, and FIP/xFIP in the mid-2s/low-3s, plus the slider that’s played like a cheat code at times; he’s recently back from a groin strain and is coming off a bumpy outing vs. the Dodgers, but the underlying quality remains elite. On the other side, Chris Bassitt brings command and mix to keep barrels scarce; his recent two-start line (16 K, 11.1 IP, four runs) and season-long pitch-shape tweaks suggest the craft is intact even without big velocity. Great American Ball Park boosts airborne contact, so any Bassitt mistake or Greene miss could become instant theater. Toronto’s strong tNERD is buoyed by top-five defense, which matters against a Reds lineup that’s slumped and kicked the ball around lately. If you’re prioritizing: watch for Greene’s whiffs versus a patient Jays core and for Bassitt to turn GABP into a pop-up factory; either way, the pitching contrast drives the watchability here.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Cincinnati Reds

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

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Athletics @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

Prospect heat versus veteran craft is an easy sell: 22-year-old Luis Morales’ 97-ish fastball crashes Sonny Gray’s sweeper/cutter chessboard. Add a top‑quartile gNERD (12.70) and a real storyline — touted call‑up versus Opening Day ace — and this is one of today’s better watches.

The NERD pieces back it up: Gray’s pNERD (7.35) leans on a strong xFIP- (74) and a shape-shifting mix that now features a sweeper and cutter alongside the sinker/curve, a repertoire tweak that still misses bats without big velocity, per Statcast. Morales brings novelty value (pNERD 6.17) and pace, with premium arm speed and legit upper‑90s fastball reports; he’s fresh off early MLB success and even blanked Detroit in his last start. That stuff/age combo is watchable even if his underlying xFIP- is closer to average.

Context tilts the late innings toward chaos: the A’s shipped out Mason Miller at the deadline, thinning their endgame options, while the Cardinals remain banged up (Arenado and Donovan among the IL names). With an above‑average tNERD on the A’s side and Gray’s efficiency on the other, expect a tight, aesthetically pleasing first half and a bullpen coin flip after that. Probables: Morales vs. Gray.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

Athletics

St. Louis Cardinals

Luis Morales, Athletics

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

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Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a

Summary

A rookie lefty on a two‑start heater meets a ground‑ball artisan and a top‑tier bullpen: this gNERD 11.85 matchup earns priority viewing. Boston’s strong tNERD (8.87) and a live Wild Card race raise the floor; Parker Messick’s changeup‑first emergence raises the ceiling.

gNERD sits comfortably above today’s average and near the historic top quartile, which fits the storylines: Messick opened his career with 6.2 IP/6 K in his debut and then seven scoreless, joining Joe Musgrove as the only pitchers to start with back‑to‑back outings of 6+ K, ≤1 R, ≤1 BB, and featuring the advertised changeup as his separator. On the other side, Brayan Bello has trended up; in August he posted a 2.34 FIP (3.89 xFIP) and just spun seven scoreless against the Yankees while leaning into a sinker/sweeper mix that tunnels well. Boston’s bullpen depth has looked postseason‑ready, and the club is firmly in the Wild Card fray, while Cleveland arrives light on thump but with gloves and relief arms that keep games tidy. If Messick’s feel holds and Bello keeps the ball on the ground, expect run prevention and pace; if Fenway’s angles punish Cleveland’s contact‑oriented bats, late‑inning drama awaits.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres, 3:40p

Summary

Cease’s bat-missing and Petco’s run-suppressing vibes meet Bradish’s intriguing return—an above‑average watch if you like pitching and deadline crossovers. Expect the bullpens (especially San Diego’s) to matter early and often.

Dylan Cease brings upper‑90s heat with a mid‑3s xFIP (~3.4), but his recent turns have been short; his last outing lasted 4.1 innings before a Miller/Estrada/Suarez relay slammed the door. Kyle Bradish just came back from Tommy John and punched out 10 with zero walks over six, finally giving Baltimore a real “miss bats” look again. San Diego’s elite late‑game options were supercharged at the deadline by adding Mason Miller, which is why this matchup tilts toward a low‑scoring, starter‑plus‑bullpen script if Cease’s pitch count climbs.

Lineup context nudges toward the under: Xander Bogaerts is on the IL with a fractured foot, and Jackson Merrill has been sidelined as well, while the Orioles are without Adley Rutschman and are riding rookie Samuel Basallo. The gNERD sits a hair above today’s average, largely on Cease’s strong pNERD and the Padres’ tNERD (that staff depth and watchable broadcast), plus a little theater with ex‑O’s Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano now wearing brown and gold.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

San Diego Padres

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

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Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

Power vs. legs: Seattle’s thunder (top-tier home run output) runs headlong into Tampa Bay’s MLB-leading track team, with Baz’s gas squaring off against Castillo’s polish. With a gNERD of 11.48—just above today’s average—this rates as a worthwhile watch for both style contrast and stakes.

Seattle’s lineup profiles as the power side of the ledger, while the Rays bring elite steal volume and a bullpen that grades well in tNERD—an appealing mix of three-true-outcome bangs versus controlled chaos on the bases. Baz adds intrigue: the stuff is there, but he’s still trying to snap a winless stretch since June 26 and is coming off 6 innings/3 earned in a 3-0 loss to Cleveland, the kind of outing that teases upside without payoff. Castillo enters with league-average underlying run prevention (xFIP- around 100) but also the recent red flag of a five-run first inning his last time out.

If Baz lands strikes, Tampa Bay’s speed-and-bullpen formula can tilt this; if he doesn’t, Seattle’s power should punish mistakes. The watchability here comes less from a single ace and more from opposing identities: homers versus havoc, with just enough volatility on both mounds to keep you from touching the remote.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 1:05p

Summary

If you like contrast, this one’s your kind of watch: a whiff-forward Spencer Strider project still sharpening post‑surgery against a Cubs club that turns balls in play and basepaths into entertainment value. The gNERD sits at 10.58—slightly above the long-run median but a tick under today’s slate average—because Chicago’s high-tNERD electricity meets Atlanta’s lower-wattage team profile.

Strider’s pNERD (6.39) is the draw: velocity is back and the bat-missing flashes remain, and he’s tweaking usage after elbow surgery sidelined him in 2024, including a recent seven-inning, one-run tune-up that hinted at form returning. Opposite him, Colin Rea’s pNERD (2.06) reflects contact dependency and limited swing-and-miss, and he’s coming off a rough turn versus San Francisco. The Cubs’ big tNERD (9.88) fits their 2025 brand: high-end run prevention and a go-go baserunning ethos that shows up in stolen bases and pressure plays. Atlanta’s tNERD (2.84) trails thanks to thin baserunning and a bullpen that hasn’t buoyed them, while the lineup’s power-and-patience edge from recent years hasn’t consistently resurfaced. Net: tune in for Strider-versus-a-deep, fast Cubs offense; stay if Chicago’s defense and legs keep manufacturing action between the strikeouts.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 5:10p

Summary

A mid-tier watchability play with a hook: Patrick Corbin returns to the desert while Ryne Nelson brings the livelier arsenal. If you’re tuning for contrast—Rangers’ surging bats versus an Arizona pen held together by hope—this fits.

At 9.71 gNERD, this sits just below today’s average, and the draw isn’t ace-on-ace so much as shape-of-contact and late-inning chaos. The pNERD duo is modest (Nelson 4.91, Corbin 3.73), but Nelson’s velocity edge (95.6 mph) and better strike rate give him the cleaner path, while Corbin’s lower whiffs and strike% raise the ball-in-play quotient. Texas arrives slugging and scoring like it means it—20 HR and a .533 team SLG over the last 10, plus hot stretches from Joc Pederson and Josh Smith—enough to stress a D-backs bullpen missing key arms. Arizona’s offense and baserunning grade well by tNERD, and Corbin Carroll’s bat has been lively, so the home side can trade punches if Nelson hands it off with a lead. Counterweight: Texas is shorthanded (Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien out), which nudges this toward “interesting” rather than “appointment.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, 10:05a

Summary

Curiosity is the draw: Washington is expected to hand the ball to lefty Andrew Alvarez for his MLB debut, while Miami’s starter remains TBD—so this one leans more “what’s behind Door No. 1?” than marquee duel. If you enjoy scouting a first look and living with a little variance, you’ll get both.

With a gNERD of 8.15, this sits below today’s average, and the gap is mostly team-side: Miami’s tNERD is serviceable (5.56) while Washington’s is near the floor (0.75) thanks to rough defense and a leaky bullpen. The pitching component doesn’t help—both pNERDs are 0—so watchability hinges on Alvarez’s novelty. In Triple-A he missed bats at a modest clip (~8.3 K/9) with decent home-run suppression (0.95 HR/9), the profile of a strike-throwing debutant rather than a Stuff+ spectacle. Miami’s bats aren’t thunderous (subpar barrel rate) but put enough balls in play to test a rookie and Washington’s gloves. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ lineup has cooled, posting a 91 wRC+ in August with bottom-tier power—helpful context if Alvarez gets little run support cushion.

Net: a mid-tier watch. Tune in for the debut and to see whether Miami’s contact game pokes holes in it; otherwise, there are higher-gNERD options on the slate.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Washington Nationals (2.00 rating)

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

Luis Garcia’s first MLB start since Tommy John surgery meets a barrel-happy-but-messy Angels club and a league-average Kikuchi — more curiosity than classic, but worth a look for the returning-ace subplot. If you enjoy volatility, a post‑TJ debut against a contact‑cutting lefty and an elite Houston bullpen fits the brief. Garcia’s comeback is the watch-hook: nine rehab starts, capped by 6 IP/1 R/5 K on August 26, though his fastball has sat 91–93 and tends to fade, so pitch count and efficiency are real questions. Kikuchi’s pNERD is middling but the ingredients are fine — league‑average xFIP‑ and 94.8 mph — and he’s toggled between sturdy and shaky lately, including a 4‑inning, 3‑walk outing his last time. With a gNERD of 8.06, this sits below today’s average, and the team split explains why: the Angels’ tNERD drags (poor defense and bullpen), while Houston’s tNERD is buoyed by a strong pen and some “due” luck. The recent plot wrinkle: Taylor Ward was carted off after a wall collision but listed as probable; Anthony Rendon remains out, and Tyler Anderson just hit the IL, thinning LAA’s support.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Luis Garcia, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, 1:10p

Summary

Coors plus a rookie touching 98 is the hook; otherwise this leans “background TV” more than appointment viewing. A gNERD of 6.45 sits near the floor of today’s slate, weighed down by Colorado’s bleak tNERD and a mystery-box Giants starter.

San Francisco hands the ball to Kai-Wei Teng after Carson Whisenhunt hit the IL, with Teng recalled to fill the slot and paired opposite Rockies rookie Chase Dollander. Dollander’s appeal is raw stuff over results: the model loves the 97–98 velo but dings the command, leaving him with a middling pNERD (4.6) and an xFIP- of 117; still, he just logged 6 innings of one-run, seven‑strikeout ball versus Houston. Teng brings a pNERD of 0 only because we lack trustworthy inputs, which keeps the average pNERD here in the “maybe, maybe not” tier. The watchability calculus tilts toward chaos at altitude: Rockies fielding, baserunning, and bullpen all drag, while the Giants’ pen and gloves are sturdier, so crooked numbers are firmly in play. The Giants have won a bunch lately, but that’s context, not prophecy. If you’re chasing a prospect test and Coors volatility, sample it; if you want pure quality, there are better options today.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Kai-Wei Teng, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

If you like plot twists more than punchouts, this is your matinee: Aaron Civale was just claimed by the Cubs, so the White Sox are scrambling while Bailey Ober tries to end a long winless run. That uncertainty plus below‑average bat-to-ball fireworks makes this the day’s floor gNERD.

With gNERD 5.75 (lowest among today’s games), the ingredients are modest: team NERDs are thin, though Minnesota’s strong bullpen tilts the late innings their way. pNERD is light, too—Ober brings a quick pace and strike‑throwing but a negative run‑prevention profile (xFIP‑ 114), and Chicago’s original starter had an even rougher xFIP‑ 118 before the waiver plot twist; a Bryse Wilson spot fills the gap and won’t spike watchability.

Ober’s underlying line (FIP around 5.2 this season) and a drought featuring 22 homers in his last 80.1 innings explain the Twins’ roller‑coaster starts; he still works in-zone and efficiently, so you’ll at least get tempo. Chicago’s entertainment value leans on the kids: Colson Montgomery just homered in three straight vs. Minnesota, while the Sox are banged up (Luis Robert Jr. to the IL). Minnesota’s counter is sneaky activity—stolen bases are up, and Ober’s had past success vs. Chicago. Net: a low‑ceiling watch unless you’re here for prospect cameos or bullpen chess.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Minnesota Twins

Aaron Civale, Chicago White Sox

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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