MLB: What to watch on September 2, 2025

• 02 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

This is the slate’s headliner: a rising buzzsaw rookie (pNERD 11.53) in Nolan McLean versus a first‑place Tigers club that’s gotten friskier late. Add Juan Soto on a tear and a comeback chapter for Sawyer Gipson‑Long, and you’ve got appointment viewing.

McLean’s watchability juice comes from results that match the model: a 66 xFIP‑ and brisk pace, plus back‑to‑back walk‑free outings capped by eight scoreless against Philadelphia; he’s a recent two‑way convert whose sweeper/curve combo has flashed silly spin and command lately. The Mets’ tNERD pops thanks to bat speed and barrels, and Soto just hung six RBIs on Detroit with a grand slam and a triple, so the visitors bring real thump.

For Detroit, Gipson‑Long is a good story and an intriguing look: big extension, a whiffy changeup/slider mix, but he’s still being monitored for endurance after elbow and hip surgeries and has been used sparingly. The Tigers’ bullpen, shaky early, has recently stabilized, including a 2.98 ERA in August after deadline reinforcements, which matters against a Mets lineup that punishes mistakes.

With gNERD 18.98 topping today’s range and cresting past the historical 95th percentile, this merits priority on your screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Detroit Tigers

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Sawyer Gipson-Long, Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

Garrett Crochet versus a light-hitting Cleveland lineup is the draw here: Boston’s ace-level bat-missing paired with a fortified back end makes this one easy on the eyes. With a gNERD of 15.62, it sits above the 95th percentile historically and near the top of today’s slate.

Crochet’s pNERD 11.96 is elite, backed by a 63 xFIP-, 96.2 mph heat, and strike-throwing that keeps the game moving; he’s the Red Sox’s centerpiece after an early-season six-year extension and has been working deep enough that even prop markets expect 19+ outs. Cleveland counters with Slade Cecconi (pNERD 4.63), whose 4.90 FIP and hard-contact/home-run profile add some volatility, though he’s mixed in recent quality starts. The team-level contrast tilts the watchability: Boston brings better barrels, defense, and a top-tier run-prevention unit that can hand late innings to a resurgent Aroldis Chapman, while Cleveland supplies gloves, baserunning, and a sturdy pen if Cecconi keeps the ball in the yard. Add that Boston’s offense has outpaced Cleveland this year by both results and underlying metrics, and you’ve got a showcase for an ace against a lineup that ranks toward the bottom of the league.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

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Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

High-velo duel, thin margins: Woo’s metronomic strikes meet Rasmussen’s August scalpel, the kind of watch where one mistake feels like two. Add Tampa Bay’s makeshift home at Steinbrenner Field and real wild-card stakes, and this one hums.

At 13.29, the gNERD sits well above today’s average (10.66) and comfortably past the historical 75th percentile, and the reason is on the mound: both starters carry sub‑85 xFIP‑ profiles and pNERDs north of 7. Woo’s run of 25 straight six‑plus‑inning starts just snapped, but the skill indicators (command, velo) remain strong; Rasmussen, meanwhile, spent August allowing only 20 hits with a 26:3 K:BB in 29.1 innings, i.e., precious little traffic.

Rasmussen’s résumé vs Seattle is also pesky: 20⅔ career innings with virtually nothing allowed, including six scoreless in their August meeting, and his midseason All‑Star nod capped an almost unheard‑of three‑surgery comeback.

Stylistically, it’s a tidy contrast: Seattle brings real thump (positive batting runs) and iffy gloves, while Tampa Bay pairs a deep, effective pen with hyperactive baserunning that leads the league in steals—exactly the stuff that turns routine singles into TV.

Context sweetener: the series already opened 10–2 Rays, tightening the postseason squeeze and raising the tactical temperature without invoking “momentum.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Yankees @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Power vs. contact suppression is the hook: the Yankees’ barrel-happy, fastball-shredding lineup meets Framber Valdez’s grounder machine and Houston’s deep relief corps, while Max Fried brings top-of-rotation polish. With a gNERD of 13.25—well above today’s slate average—this profiles as one of the night’s cleaner watches.

New York’s high tNERD is driven by elite thunder (barrel rate +2.61 z), a bad fit for sinkers when they leak; Valdez scuffled through August before a 7-scoreless course correction, and the Yankees touched him for four runs over 5.2 innings in their last meeting. Fried’s pNERD rides an xFIP- of 83, the profile of a steady strike-thrower who limits damage, and he draws an Astros lineup recently recharged by Yordan Álvarez’s return and power. Houston’s watchability leans bullpen-forward—fortified by Luis Garcia’s activation and a McCullers-to-the-pen pivot—while the Yankees counter a shakier pen with impact bats and a fresh multi-inning lefty in Ryan Yarbrough. If you like contrasts—premium bat speed vs worm-burners, ace money vs ace contact management—this one delivers without needing chaos to be fun.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

New York Yankees

Houston Astros

Max Fried, New York Yankees

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Guile vs gas: Clayton Kershaw’s soft-contact reboot runs headlong into a Pirates lineup that’s been punchless against lefties, while Carmen Mlodzinski’s 96 mph and opener-ish usage hint at early-innings intrigue before the pens take over.
It’s a slight “yes” from the model too: a gNERD of 10.76 sits above today’s average and the historical median, with most of the appeal coming from the Dodgers’ side.

The split is clear in the NERD bits: LAD’s tNERD 7.05 (thump plus bullpen) outweighs PIT’s 4.09 (run prevention good, run creation not), which tracks with season context—Dodgers sit top‑three in runs and second in homers, while the Pirates rank last in both runs and homers. Kershaw’s pNERD is only 4.09 thanks to modest whiffs and velo, but he’s been winning on contact management and command, rolling through an excellent August. Across the way, Mlodzinski’s above‑average pNERD (6.29) maps to a better xFIP and fastball, yet he’s recently been a short‑stint starter with piggyback help (see: three innings last time, Bubba Chandler for four in relief). If Pittsburgh keeps that quick hook, their bullpen—quietly sturdy of late—can keep this watchable even if the offense can’t.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

A mid-card gNERD (10.46) with high-variance vibes: Arizona turns to recently-stretched Nabil Crismatt while Texas hasn’t named a starter, which is code for “possible bullpen day” and late-inning roulette. With Corey Seager out and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. banged up, expect baserunning and gloves to matter as much as launch angle.

Crismatt has just three big-league outings this year and pushed to 83–85 pitches, including 5.2 IP in Milwaukee; in that longest turn his single-game FIP/xFIP sat roughly mid-5s—tiny-sample caution in neon. Texas hadn’t announced a starter, and local preview chatter points to Jacob Latz as an opener, which would tilt this toward a relay race. The tNERD split explains the watchability: Arizona brings top-5 run scoring and punch (.250/.324 team line with power), while Texas counters with plus defense and sneaky-good running; the D-backs’ bullpen grades as the shakier unit, an entertainment accelerant if the game stays tight. Seager’s appendectomy reshapes the Rangers’ lineup math, and Arizona may be without Gurriel after his awkward exit, trimming some thump at both ends. Historically this gNERD sits near the overall median and just a hair below today’s slate average, so file it under “solid appointment” rather than “cancel plans,” with the unknown Texas starter and an athletic, run-happy matchup supplying the juice.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Nabil Crismatt, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

A homer-happy ballpark, a hot Blue Jays lineup, and a returning strikeout lefty make this a sneaky watch even with a middle-of-the-pack gNERD. If Nick Lodolo’s finger holds and José Berríos keeps the ball off the seats, there’s real entertainment value here.

The model gives this matchup a 9.75 gNERD—below today’s average—so the draw is less vibes than variables: Lodolo’s above-average pNERD (6.09) versus a righty-heavy Toronto core that’s been cooking, led recently by a torrid Bo Bichette. Lodolo just came off the IL for a blister and is making his first career appearance against Toronto; he’s missed bats all year but has been more homer-prone in Cincinnati (1.82 HR/9 at home), a tricky fit for Great American.

Toronto’s watchability is buoyed by elite team defense (top five by DRS), which pairs well with Berríos’s contact-forward profile and so-so pNERD. Bichette’s August heater only adds juice.

Cincinnati’s offense has been scuffling overall, but the series opened with a walk-off—useful drama, not “momentum.” Expect the chess match to hinge on Lodolo vs. Toronto’s righties and whether Berríos can survive the bandbox without damage.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Cincinnati Reds

José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

If you’re here for a duel, temper expectations; the gNERD is mid-pack (9.22), but Chicago’s high-tNERD act can still make this hum. Think Imanaga’s command and the Cubs’ slick baserunning/defense against a banged‑up Braves lineup trying to MacGyver offense.

Shota Imanaga’s pNERD (3.79) is modest thanks to so‑so run estimators, yet he just stacked quality starts throughout August, the kind of “hit your spots, let the mitt do the talking” run that plays with a good defense behind him. Joey Wentz (1.92 pNERD) doesn’t promise whiffs, but he’s coming off 6.2 efficient innings of one‑run ball, which at least nudges this away from a slog. The watchability tilt comes from team styles: Cubs tNERD 9.95 is powered by barrels, speed, and gloves, and their lineup has been thumping lately, slugging .470 with 40 XBH over the last 10. Atlanta’s tNERD is dragged by baserunning and a wobbly bullpen, and they just moved Austin Riley to the 60‑day IL while claiming Ha‑Seong Kim to patch the infield. Add a fresh walk‑off win for Chicago as context—not inevitability—and this leans “watch for the Cubs’ tempo, not a strikeout clinic.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs

Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

This game asks one question: will Cade Cavalli’s power-and-curve version show up, or the one the Yankees walloped? If it’s the former, a modest 8.98 gNERD starts to look sneaky-watchable.

Cavalli’s comeback has featured upper-90s fastballs and a sharper breaking ball, highlighted by seven scoreless for his first MLB win and writeups noting both the velo bump and an arm-slot tweak; he’s also coming off a clunker vs. New York, so the volatility is real. Miami counters with rookie Adam Mazur, a recent Padres-to-Marlins acquisition making his first steps in the bigs; the sample is tiny, which is partly why his pNERD is a big fat zero here. On the model side, Cavalli’s pNERD (6.52) and xFIP- around league average keep the pitching half afloat, while the team half drags: both lineups grade light on barrels and runs, Washington’s defense and bullpen rate poorly, and Miami’s ‘pen doesn’t exactly lift things either. That profile says: if Cavalli’s stuff plays, enjoy the Ks; if not, two weak offenses plus shaky relief could turn late innings into entertaining messiness, just not high art.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Washington Nationals (2.00 rating)

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

Adam Mazur, Miami Marlins

No detailed stats available

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Tyler Wells returns from elbow surgery; Yu Darvish and a deep Padres bullpen—suddenly without All-Star Jason Adam—await. If you like comeback uncertainty, veteran craft and late‑inning pressure, this one delivers modestly. At 8.89, the gNERD is below today’s average, with thin pNERD (Wells 0.00; Darvish 2.64) making novelty and bullpens the draw. Wells’ rehab peaked at 49 pitches, so Baltimore may lean early on relief. Darvish has mixed a 7‑inning shutout vs. the Mets with shorter, shakier turns since returning, and his xFIP‑ near 105 fits “fine, not fearsome.” San Diego’s relief corps has set their tone this year, but Adam’s ruptured quad shifts leverage to Robert Suarez, Adrián Morejón and Jeremiah Estrada—still a formidable endgame. Layer in the ex‑Oriole subplot (Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano now Padres) and the O’s rookies who just carried a 4–3 win at Petco, and you’ve got a reasonable mid‑card watch that could turn on how quickly Baltimore must tap its bullpen—and how well San Diego’s patched‑up one holds.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

San Diego Padres

Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

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Athletics @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

If you like your watchability with bats doing the talking, this one fits: Luis Severino returns from the IL for Sacramento and the Cards counter with Miles Mikolas, a contact-forward righty—so expect action more than whiffs. With a gNERD of 8.59—below today’s average—the entertainment here tilts toward offense, bullpen chess, and the curiosity of Severino’s first start back.

Both starters sit in the low pNERD tier, and it tracks: Mikolas’ run-prevention estimators are pedestrian (4.62 FIP/4.69 xFIP), more about sequencing and gloves than strikeouts, while Severino’s appeal is less his bat-missing than mid‑90s heat and pace. The A’s have quietly hit like an above-average club this year (roughly 104 wRC+), and their lineup’s swing-happy first‑pitch approach meets a St. Louis staff that doesn’t miss many bats in the zone—fertile ground for balls in play. St. Louis’ relatively sturdy bullpen versus the A’s patchwork group (post–Mason Miller trade) nudges any late leverage toward the home side. Add in that Sacramento just bludgeoned the opener 11–3—and Severino had been rolling pre‑injury—and there’s enough intrigue to keep this mid-tier gNERD afloat, even without an ace on the mound.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

Athletics

St. Louis Cardinals

Luis Severino, Athletics

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

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San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Logan Webb’s ground-ball sorcery at altitude is the draw. He drags a below‑average gNERD (8.31) into watchable territory against MLB’s worst club, now run by interim manager Warren Schaeffer. Webb’s top‑tier pNERD (9.39) and elite xFIP‑ (68) fit Coors—he kills lift—and August backed it up with skill stats (32 K, 3 BB in 32.1 IP). He’s also bankable versus Colorado overall (9‑3 career, tougher but mortal at Coors). San Francisco’s offense has woken up—eight wins in nine and a franchise‑record 15‑game homer streak—so the entertainment may arrive via loud contact as much as Webb’s sinker ballet. On the other side, Kyle Freeland’s profile (pNERD 3.76; xFIP‑ ~105) is more about strikes than whiffs, and his two meetings with SF this year were identical: 6 IP, 3 R, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. His latest turn was a serviceable 6 innings, 3 ER vs. Houston. The watchability drag is Colorado’s bottom‑tier tNERD—weak bats, porous defense, and a thin bullpen—but Coors plus a hot Giants lineup keep this a solid watch, with Webb’s craft as the main reason to prioritize it.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A debuting lefty against one of baseball’s least strikeout‑prone lineups is a recipe for baseballs in play and gloves deciding things more than radar guns. Mitch Farris gets the call for the Angels opposite Michael Lorenzen, so novelty meets a contact-first Royals club and a pitch-to-contact veteran.

With a gNERD of 7.23, this sits below today’s average, and the why tracks: pNERD is light (Farris is an unknown; Lorenzen’s at 3.34), while the Royals’ above-average tNERD is built on run prevention more than thunder. Kansas City owns a top-three staff ERA and strikes out few hitters, but also whiffs the second least at the plate, meaning long rallies instead of punchout theater. Lorenzen’s profile backs the in-play forecast—roughly mid‑4s FIP/xFIP with better K/BB vs righties—more grinder than showstopper. For the “tune‑in now” crowd: Farris punched out 11 per nine in Double‑A, but his first test is a Royals lineup designed to make you earn it.

Entertainment hinges on stars with bat speed: Bobby Witt Jr., fresh off an 18‑game hit streak, and Zach Neto, who leads the AL with nine leadoff homers, can jump‑start watchability in a hurry; meanwhile the Angels’ fifth‑most home runs and league‑worst K rate hint at boom‑or‑bust innings.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Kansas City Royals

Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals

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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

This projects as a low‑key watch: the day’s floor gNERD and two light‑punch pNERDs (average 2.38) point to contact, not punch‑outs. If you tune in, it’s for the Twins’ bullpen competence and the “let’s‑see‑what-sticks” youth movement on both sides, not ace‑v‑ace theater.

The models don’t love the matchup because both starters carry below‑average underlying run prevention (xFIP‑ marks: Davis Martin 108, Simeon Woods Richardson 124), and neither brings bat‑missing sizzle. Chicago’s offense grades poorly across the board, while Minnesota is closer to average but leans on a solid relief corps, a rare tNERD bright spot here. Minnesota did ship off pieces at the deadline and has been skidding, which dials down the stakes, though Woods Richardson just returned to the rotation after an illness and could still be stretching back out. Chicago is without Luis Robert Jr. (hamstring IL), so you’re shopping for pop from kids and role players; at least the White Sox took the opener with homers from Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth, and Martin beat these Twins on Aug. 23.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Minnesota Twins

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins

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