MLB: What to watch on September 3, 2025

• 03 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Shohei Ohtani’s high‑octane return to starting pitching meets a Pirates lineup that’s been light on offense—catnip for pitch‑nerds and watchability models alike. With a gNERD of 16.04—best on the slate and above the 95th percentile historically—this is premium appointment viewing.

The pNERD heavy lifting comes from Ohtani (11.97), whose elite xFIP- (63) and revived four‑seamer—averaging roughly 98 mph with top‑five starter velocity—give you whiffs and power without the junk ERAs can hide; he even just reached 100 Dodgers homers as a hitter for added spectacle. Across the way, Braxton Ashcraft (9.19) brings real stuff and a tidy underlying line: mid‑90s heat with an xFIP trending around the low‑3s against righties and a walk rate that mostly stays out of his own way, with recent outings hinting at durability gains. Team NERDs tilt the aesthetics: the Dodgers’ bats are elite by run‑creation metrics, while Pittsburgh’s offense has hovered near the bottom of the league, a contrast that sharpens every Ohtani pitch and magnifies any Ashcraft zero. Sprinkle in Ohtani’s reworked windup/velo jump and you’ve got both novelty and quality, which is exactly what gNERD is rewarding here.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Mets @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

gNERD 13.78 puts Mets–Tigers near the top of today’s slate, and the real hook is the Mets’ thunder squaring up a contact-heavy starter and a shaky Detroit bullpen. It’s ex-closer-turned-starter Clay Holmes against former No. 1 pick Casey Mize—more intrigue than dominance, which usually means action.

With a beefy tNERD (12.03), the Mets bring barrels, baserunning, and a deep ‘pen to prop up the show, plus actual star heat: Juan Soto has been on a tear and Pete Alonso just left twice in the previous game, so the middle of the order is very live. Mize’s pNERD is merely above average (5.28) and the peripherals say “traffic”: a FIP around 4 and matching xFIP on the season, with recent starts featuring plenty of baserunners. Holmes’ pNERD is modest (2.72) and the role-change story is the draw—he’s stretched out enough to give five-ish innings, but efficiency wobbles keep the bullpen busy. That matters because Detroit’s relief corps, improved by results post-deadline yet still bottom-tier by underlying rates, can wobble once exposed, and key arms are banged up. Given today’s distribution, this gNERD sits well above the day’s average and between the historic 75th and 95th percentiles—high-tier watchability without needing ace-level pitching to get there.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Detroit Tigers

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

A rookie on a heater against a contact artist, plus one of the sport’s twitchiest defenses: this one grades out as appointment viewing for stuff-vs.-savvy contrast. With a gNERD of 11.94—upper tier for today and about top‑quartile historically—the matchup leans watchable even before the storylines kick in.

Cubs phenom Cade Horton brings mid‑90s power with above‑average swing/strike rates (pNERD 6.6), and he’s been stingy lately, allowing a 0.86 ERA over his past eight outings, which explains why Chicago media is already debating him for Game 1 in October on a club tracking as a near lock for the postseason. The team-side lift is real, too: a tNERD of 10.0 powered by elite fielding and plus baserunning means more highlight‑friendly plays behind Horton and extra pressure on Atlanta’s battery. On the other side, Bryce Elder’s pNERD (4.4) reflects the tightrope: minimal whiffs and homer trouble have dragged his run prevention (Battery Power pegged him with a 145 ERA‑ and MLB‑worst HR/FB among volume arms), yet he just logged seven innings of one‑run ball against Philadelphia. If you’re ranking options today, the crisp rookie fastball/slider, Cubs’ athleticism, and playoff‑tinged stakes nudge this toward the top of your queue.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

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Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

Boston’s likely bullpen-day chess match (Brennan Bernardino as an opener) against Joey Cantillo’s miss-heavy profile gives this one real watchability: good arms, great gloves, and a live tactical edge. Add the Roman Anthony oblique scare from the previous game and Boston may be juggling its lineup on the fly.

The gNERD of 11.71 sits comfortably above today’s average and just shy of the historical 75th percentile, powered by Boston’s superior tNERD (fielding and bullpen) and Cantillo’s pNERD edge. Cleveland’s starter brings a legit skill signal: xFIP- of 88 here, and across eight earlier starts he ran a 33.7% whiff rate—second only to Dylan Cease among 180 starters with 300+ swings—tempered by control volatility. Boston’s Bernardino is typically a one-inning lefty with a mid-3s FIP and zero starts this season, so expect an opener into a deep, effective relief corps—exactly the kind of sequencing that can keep the pace up and the run-prevention crisp. Cleveland’s bats lag on barrels and batting runs, but they defend and run well; Boston brings more pop plus top-tier run prevention. Net: a high-floor, medium-variance watch—Cantillo’s ability to live in the zone versus a bullpen carousel will decide whether this climbs from “solid” to “stick-around.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Brennan Bernardino, Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Above-average gNERD, Bronx barrels vs. a sinkerballing storyline: if you like contact vs. power, this one’s your catnip. Jason Alexander just blanked the Yankees in six innings last month and now draws them again, making his finesse-and-grounders act the night’s swing variable.

At 11.53, the game sits comfortably above today’s average watchability, driven by a top-tier Yankees tNERD (8.80) built on an elite barrel rate that tends to make pitchers with modest whiff profiles look mortal. Houston’s counter is Alexander’s get-it-on-the-ground approach, though his recent uptick — eight strikeouts his last time at home — adds a little “huh, interesting” to the matchup.

New York’s starter Will Warren grades out better than surface stats: a 91 xFIP- in the pNERD inputs and a scoreless, five-hit turn his last outing suggest steadier mid-rotation competence than highlight-reel dominance, which makes the Yankees’ bats the primary entertainment engine here.

Add in the confirmation that it’s Warren vs. Alexander, and you’ve got a watch that’s more about how quickly New York’s lineup can force Houston away from its pitch-to-contact plan — or whether Alexander reprises his August trick.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

New York Yankees

Houston Astros

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Jason Alexander, Houston Astros

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Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

George Kirby’s precision vs. Tampa Bay’s run-and-reliever machine is a clean stylistic clash, and the gNERD 11.41 puts it comfortably above today’s average. Add the Rays’ five-game surge fueled by Junior Caminero’s age-21 power binge and you’ve got real channel-priority stakes.

For the pitching: Kirby carries the higher pNERD (7.71) and the skills to match, with an away xFIP around 3.3 and a 22% K-BB% vs righties that should play even in the Rays’ temporary digs. Adrian Houser’s profile is more contact-and-grounders; since being acquired at the deadline, his starter xFIP sits in the mid-4s, though his home splits have been stingy.

Team-wise, the shapes are fun: Seattle brings top-third power (195 HR), while Tampa Bay brings MLB’s most larcenous legs (172 SB) and a reinforced late-game crew that just leaned on Griffin Jax and Garrett Cleavinger to close out the previous win. The Rays’ current push has also turned Caminero into appointment viewing, with 40 homers and a milestone night that tightened the wild-card chase.

Net: higher watchability driven by Kirby’s pNERD edge, Tampa Bay’s baserunning/bullpen tNERD strengths, and meaningful standings friction—less fireworks-only, more styles-make-fights.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

Adrian Houser, Tampa Bay Rays

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Two first-place clubs collide with very different thrills: Milwaukee’s run‑happy chaos meets Philadelphia’s star power and a Nola bounce‑back thesis. With both teams grading well by tNERD, this gNERD 11.15 game promises action over whiffs.

Milwaukee’s entertainment engine is speed and leather—think nine steals in a game and six in one inning earlier this year—so expect constant pressure on the Phillies’ battery. Aaron Nola’s pNERD (4.65) beats today’s pitcher average, and his xFIP- (90) says he’s better than the ERA line, plus he’s long owned the Brewers (7–2, 2.64 in 14 starts). Still, 2025 has been jagged (most recent: 6 IP, 4 ER vs. ATL), making “good Nola vs. bad Nola” a real subplot. Opposite him, José Quintana’s pNERD (-0.50) and xFIP- (119) hint at thin margins; he’s coming off a 3.2‑inning, 6‑run clunker and carries a FIP around 4.8 despite a shinier ERA. The team side does the heavy lifting: Brewers rate well by defense and run creation, Phillies bring baserunning and thump, and both sit atop their divisions, which raises the stakes without requiring a strikeout show. In short: balls in play, bags in motion, and just enough Nola‑centric intrigue to keep you from flipping channels.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Shane Bieber’s comeback tour meets a contact-happy Toronto lineup and a Reds staff that just emptied the bullpen—clean pitching narrative up top, possible late fireworks underneath. Zack Littell’s command-and-cutter act is the foil, and that contrast is the hook.

With a mid-pack gNERD of 9.97, this leans watchable because the Blue Jays’ high tNERD (8.21) brings real on-field quality—elite contact rates and top-tier run scoring—against a Reds team whose bats lag by our model. Toronto puts the ball in play as well as anyone and strikes out less than any lineup, a tough assignment for Littell, who wins with strikes, not whiffs, and a stingy walk rate that’s carried him through heavy innings since the trade. Bieber’s pNERD is blank because the sample is tiny, not because the stuff is; his velocity has ticked back to pre-injury levels and his first two Toronto outings were crisp, which is the real intrigue here. Cincinnati should welcome Littell’s length after a bullpen scramble the previous game, but Toronto’s offense just bludgeoned that same group, so a high-contact lineup versus a contact-leaning starter keeps the run-outcome variance high.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Cincinnati Reds

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

No detailed stats available

Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds

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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p

Summary

Zac Gallen just put six zeroes on the Dodgers and now sees a Texas lineup missing Corey Seager; Jack Leiter counters with 98–99 and a reworked two-seamer/firm changeup. This gNERD (9.49) sits a hair below today’s slate average, but there’s more here than the number suggests.

Gallen’s mid-pack pNERD masks usable indicators (xFIP ~4.1) and that fresh reset against elite bats; if he lands the breaker early, his tidy tempo should keep this moving. Leiter’s pNERD trails, but the watchability bump is the stuff: the velocity jump and new shapes have steadied him, and he’s fresh off six strong in a win last week. Team-wise, Arizona brings a top-10 offense with real baserunning juice, while Texas pairs elite run prevention and fielding with a sturdier pen — a neat stylistic clash with Arizona’s more volatile relief corps. If you like contrasts, you’ll get them: Gallen’s more efficient, contact-prone profile versus Leiter’s power-and-youth fastball show, plus Texas’s gloves (and baserunning) trying to blunt Arizona’s barrels.

Arizona just snapped Texas’s six-game heater, so expect a playoff-chase tempo without the September slop — not the best on the slate by gNERD, but sneakily worth your attention.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19 rating)

Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Athletics @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Come for the contrast, stay for the late-inning dice roll. This gNERD sits a notch below today’s average, but the styles make it sneaky-watchable: a bat-forward Athletics club against a glove-and-bullpen Cardinals outfit, with two contact-leaning lefties setting the tone.

At 9.34, the game trails today’s mean, largely because the pitchers aren’t marquee: Jeffrey Springs’ stuff hasn’t fully bounced back—velocity is around 90–91 with a modest 18.9% K rate and xERA near 4.2—so he leans on sequencing and a still-credible changeup. Matthew Liberatore offers a broader mix (the change is his best pitch), but his swing-and-miss is similarly ordinary, reflected in an xERA around 4.7 and an 18% K rate. That nudges watchability away from strikeouts and toward batted-ball outcomes and defense, where St. Louis typically fares better. Meanwhile, the A’s traded All-Star closer Mason Miller, leaving a thinner pen behind their above-average bats—so any lead they carry will feel precarious. Springs vs. Liberatore won’t be a whiff-fest; it’s a fielding-and-bullpen referendum with Sacramento’s hitters testing the Cards’ leather late.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

Athletics

St. Louis Cardinals

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

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Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

If you like the “can the bullpen rescue the starter” genre, this is your matinee. San Diego’s staff has been one of MLB’s stingiest all season, but the more interesting starter here is Baltimore’s Cade Povich, who brings the better underlying run prevention to the matchup. The gNERD is a middle-of-today 8.11 (today’s average is 10.11), and that tracks: Povich’s above-average pNERD (xFIP- 91; 100 K in 91 IP) squares off with Nestor Cortes, whose pNERD is near the bottom and who’s been more variable than good since arriving via the deadline. Baltimore just took the previous game behind Tyler Wells’ return and Emmanuel Rivera’s four-RBI night, while San Diego has slipped in the NL West race, which adds stakes without promising outcomes. Cortes is a curiosity play: recent short start vs. Minnesota, one brilliant six one-hit innings vs. the Dodgers, and a trade that put him in this rotation in the first place. The Padres’ season-long run prevention (top-two ERA/WHIP) and deadline bullpen reinforcements keep this watchable even if the average pNERD is modest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

San Diego Padres

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

Nestor Cortes, San Diego Padres

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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

This is a Zebby Matthews watch: the Twins’ strike-throwing rookie with mid-90s life faces a Sox lineup missing Luis Robert Jr., pushing the appeal toward one compelling arm. Yoendrys Gómez is the wild card—he blanked these Twins for 4.2 innings last week—but his underlying indicators lag, so the gNERD sits mid-low.

With a gNERD of 7.91 (below today’s average) the draw is the pNERD split: Matthews’ strong mark (9.87) and quick tempo versus Gómez’s negative pNERD and scattershot strike profile. The matchup is on the board as Gómez vs. Matthews, and Matthews’ recent six-inning, two-run outing underscores why his start nudges this game above its modest team-NERD baseline.

Minnesota’s bullpen has been a season-long selling point on paper—even projected No. 1 in spring—though it just wore a messy loss to these Sox, a reminder that relief volatility can still add chaos points late.

Chicago’s offense and defense have dragged most of the year, and with Robert sidelined the supporting cast must string singles for Gómez to matter; the last head-to-head suggested he can keep them in it for a turn through the order. If you’re triaging screens, sample the early innings for Matthews’ strike efficiency; if Gómez lands enough sliders again, stay for the bullpen contrast.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Minnesota Twins

Yoendrys Gómez, Chicago White Sox

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

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Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, 10:05a

Summary

Eury Pérez’s 98 mph fastball and new-look arsenal are the hook; Washington’s growing-up-on-TV outfield is the subplot. It’s a modest gNERD 7.44—below today’s average—but the contrast on the mound gives it a pulse.

Pérez’s pNERD (6.70) and elite velocity make him the clear draw; since returning midseason he’s missed bats and even broke out a sweeper, though command has wobbled at times and his last outing was a brief clunker. Mitchell Parker’s pNERD (1.60) reflects contact trouble: a 2025 xERA north of five with nearly 50% hard-hit rate and a 9% barrel rate point to fireworks if he’s up in the zone. The team-side watchability leans Miami (tNERD 5.51 vs. 1.06); Washington’s defense has been a season-long tax with multiple regulars grading poorly by OAA, a drag on run prevention and aesthetics. If Pérez’s xFIP- (107) and pace trim the chaos, Miami’s advantage grows; if not, both bullpens have been adventure-prone this year, especially Washington’s, which dug itself a historically deep early-season hole before a mild rebound. As a bonus subplot, James Wood and Daylen Lile just dented Miami earlier this week—youthful punch worth a peek.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Washington Nationals (2.00 rating)

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals

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Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A middling gNERD (7.37) hides a tidy contrast: Kansas City’s glove-and-bullpen outfit versus an Angels club that hunts homers and might be missing Mike Trout. If you like prospect intrigue and small-sample tension, rookie Ryan Bergert vs. 21-year-old Caden Dana qualifies.

Bergert has been a pleasant deadline pickup, preventing runs since arriving (2-1, 2.67 in 64+ IP) despite modest bat-missing; our model pegs his underlying xFIP- around 110 with light whiffs, so the appeal is efficiency more than sizzle. Dana brings the mystery card: a top Angels prospect with minimal 2025 MLB track record and shaky early results in tiny samples, promoted to plug rotation holes. The team-side split tilts watchability toward Kansas City: Royals tNERD (4.63) is buoyed by plus defense and a sturdy pen, while the Angels’ tNERD (1.60) is dragged down by rough fielding and relief work. Offensively, K.C. puts balls in play but ranks near the bottom in scoring, whereas L.A. leans top-five power and swing-and-miss. With Trout day-to-day and Taylor Ward banged up, the Angels’ thump may be thinner than usual, nudging this toward watchable-if-close rather than must-see chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Kansas City Royals

Caden Dana, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Ryan Bergert, Kansas City Royals

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San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

This grades out as the day’s least watchable game by gNERD, but if you’ve got room for a Coors Field science experiment, Robbie Ray’s rebound fastball versus thin air and a testy series might be enough to peek. Also: tempers already flared in this set, so there’s at least some spice if the baseball lulls. Ray’s pNERD is merely middling (3.90), yet he’s quietly carried a sub-4 FIP lately and profiles as the clear pitching draw; his four-seamer’s above-average induced vertical break has powered the bounce-back, the kind of shape that can still play even without eye-popping velocity. Márquez’s pNERD is low (1.58) and he’s just off the IL for biceps tendinitis, with a rocky return that doesn’t scream “crisp feel” heading into altitude. Team-wise, tNERD says the Giants have a few watchable hooks (a strong run-prevention group and a solid broadcast), but Colorado’s tNERD drags things down; the Rockies’ offense has graded among the league’s weakest by park-adjusted metrics and their staff strikeout rate sits at the bottom, dulling pitcher-vs.-hitter tension. In short: low gNERD, one intriguing arm, and Coors chaos as the wild card.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies

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