Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on September 4, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

Detail

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

If you’re only watching one game, make it this duel: NL Cy Young front-runner Paul Skenes and his 98 mph four-seamer take on the Dodgers’ star-laden lineup, with the day’s highest gNERD. Pittsburgh is eyeing a sweep, and Skenes already blanked L.A. once this year—so yes, there’s real bite behind the buzz.

The gNERD (14.33) sits atop today’s slate and near the historical 95th percentile, and it’s the pitching that makes it pop: Skenes (pNERD 11.34) pairs elite velocity with run prevention metrics that have him leading the NL in FIP and ERA+ entering this start, while Snell (pNERD 6.15) brings a better-than-average xFIP- but his strike rate hints at occasional traffic. Skenes’ earlier 6.1 scoreless with nine Ks versus L.A. raises the stakes, especially with the Pirates’ run-prevention backbone (plus fielding and a solid pen) backing him.

On the other side, the Dodgers’ superior tNERD (7.04), barrels, and bullpen depth keep this from feeling lopsided, though Will Smith’s hand contusion and day-to-day status could matter behind the plate. Add that Ohtani skipped his mound turn due to illness but stayed in the lineup while Pittsburgh logged its MLB-leading 17th shutout, and you’ve got high-octane stuff meeting a lineup that usually hits—emphasis on “usually.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 77.9 9.9% -1.4 -5.5 49.1 $341.0M 29.6 -4.0 2.45
Z-score 1.30 1.15 -0.32 -0.27 1.06 2.26 0.89 -0.19 0.12
tNERD 1.30 1.15 -0.32 -0.27 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 4.00 7.04

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -103.0 7.9% -4.6 14.1 38.0 $88.9M 28.4 10.0 2.01
Z-score -1.65 -0.49 -0.84 0.71 0.48 -1.13 -0.33 0.46 -0.74
tNERD -1.65 -0.49 -0.84 0.71 0.48 1.13 0.33 0.46 0.00 4.00 4.12

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 90 14.4% 61.1% 95.3 mph 32 18.5s -33 0.0%
Z-score -0.67 1.90 -1.24 0.66 0.87 -0.02
pNERD 1.35 0.95 -0.62 0.66 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.15

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 75 13.7% 65.0% 98.1 mph 23 18.6s -28 0.0%
Z-score -1.58 1.55 0.45 1.94 -1.47 0.06
pNERD 3.16 0.78 0.23 1.94 1.47 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 11.34

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 1:10p

Summary

Two first-place clubs with opposite thrills: Milwaukee turns every single into a track meet, while Philadelphia brings thunder and a feisty bullpen. With a gNERD of 14.31—tops today and near the historic 95th percentile—this is DVR-proof.

Ranger Suárez (pNERD 5.65) is the command-and-soft-contact side of the matchup, carrying an 89 xFIP- and recent K/BB bliss, while Freddy Peralta (pNERD 4.70) supplies the whiffs and mid‑90s heat (strong SwStr% but shakier strike%); expect feel vs. fire more than a stuff-off. Milwaukee’s watchability juice comes from elite baserunning—second in MLB in steals and capable of total larceny, as a nine‑swipe game reminded us—backed by plus defense. Philadelphia counters with a top‑tier lineup headlined by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper and runs well themselves. Late-inning intrigue is real: the Brewers are without All‑Star closer Trevor Megill, and the Phillies are patching post‑Wheeler while even kicking the tires on Walker Buehler after placing Jordan Romano on the IL. Probables are confirmed Peralta vs. Suárez; the stakes feel like a postcard from October.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 44.1 8.8% 8.0 4.7 28.7 $279.5M 29.5 18.0 2.92
Z-score 0.74 0.25 1.21 0.24 -0.01 1.43 0.79 0.82 1.03
tNERD 0.74 0.25 1.21 0.24 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.82 1.03 4.00 8.29

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 50.9 6.5% 14.0 22.9 46.5 $112.2M 27.6 -36.0 2.66
Z-score 0.86 -1.64 2.19 1.15 0.93 -0.82 -1.14 -1.66 0.53
tNERD 0.86 -1.64 2.19 1.15 0.93 0.82 1.14 0.00 0.53 4.00 9.97

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 89 9.7% 65.7% 90.6 mph 29 18.0s -19 0.0%
Z-score -0.73 -0.41 0.77 -1.48 0.09 -0.42
pNERD 1.47 -0.20 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.65

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 97 12.6% 61.0% 94.9 mph 29 18.4s -36 0.0%
Z-score -0.25 1.01 -1.27 0.48 0.09 -0.10
pNERD 0.50 0.51 -0.63 0.48 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.70

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New York Yankees @ Houston Astros, 4:40p

Summary

Carlos Rodón’s shape vs. contact (3.83 FIP/3.93 xFIP) meets Cristian Javier’s newly reanimated “invisi-fastball,” fresh off six no-hit innings in just his fourth start back from Tommy John. With a gNERD of 12.19—upper tier today and roughly top-quartile historically—this is a strong watch.

The NERD blend tilts toward New York because the Yankees’ bats carry elite thump (top-tier barrel rate) and overall batting value, while Houston’s tNERD leans more on gloves and a still-competent bullpen. That bullpen, however, is patchworked: Josh Hader is shelved, Craig Kimbrel was just added, and usage has been bumpy—so late innings could get weird. Rodón’s 2025 looks legitimately sustainable by peripherals, and his history against Houston has been tidy; meanwhile Javier has historically handled the Yankees and, after 85 pitches in that no-hit turn, no longer looks tightly capped. Houston’s lineup has been more ordinary than ominous this year, which plays into the Yankees’ power-first profile and helps explain why the model likes this more than most games on the slate. If you’re prioritizing: come for Rodón’s miss bats vs. an aggressive Astros order, stay to see whether Javier’s carry and deception can mute New York’s barrels again.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

New York Yankees

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 113.8 11.6% -0.8 2.6 25.5 $290.9M 29.1 12.0 2.08
Z-score 1.88 2.54 -0.22 0.13 -0.18 1.58 0.38 0.55 -0.61
tNERD 1.88 2.54 -0.22 0.13 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.00 4.00 8.71

Houston Astros

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 2.3 7.7% -4.6 14.8 47.7 $221.9M 29.0 33.0 2.17
Z-score 0.06 -0.66 -0.84 0.74 0.99 0.66 0.28 1.51 -0.42
tNERD 0.06 -0.66 -0.84 0.74 0.99 0.00 0.00 1.51 0.00 4.00 5.82

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 93 12.3% 62.1% 93.8 mph 32 18.4s -15 0.0%
Z-score -0.49 0.87 -0.80 -0.02 0.87 -0.10
pNERD 0.98 0.43 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.86

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

Two ships in Wild Card waters pass each other at short range; one has Ryan Pepiot on the bridge, the other hopes its bullpen can swim. gNERD says “worth your eyeballs,” and the web chatter agrees: these clubs are neck‑and‑neck with real stakes attached.

Pepiot owns the better pNERD (6.10) and the livelier arsenal, with mid‑90s heat and a Rays lab pitch mix that’s trimmed fastball usage while adding cutter/curve—results that tend to grade closer to his FIP than the shinier surface lines. He also spun five scoreless in his last start, which fits the model’s solid xFIP- (96). Cleveland counters with lefty Logan Allen, whose pNERD (2.80) reflects a rougher xFIP- (116) and too many non-competitive strikes; recent outings have wobbled.

If the bats matter, Tampa Bay’s are the better TV: Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz have been scorching of late, while Cleveland’s lineup has dragged with a .203 average and .335 slug in its last 10. The undercard is sneaky fun: both clubs run well and carry plus bullpens by our tNERD components, which helps the pace and keeps late innings crisp. Add it up and you get a slightly‑above‑historic‑median gNERD 10.69—middle of the pack for the day, but playoff‑flavored and Pepiot‑forward.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -94.7 6.6% 5.6 16.7 47.3 $102.3M 27.5 -39.0 2.16
Z-score -1.52 -1.56 0.82 0.84 0.97 -0.95 -1.25 -1.79 -0.44
tNERD -1.52 -1.56 0.82 0.84 0.97 0.95 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.75

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -17.2 7.7% 11.5 -28.6 44.6 $89.9M 27.4 -24.0 2.27
Z-score -0.25 -0.66 1.78 -1.43 0.83 -1.12 -1.35 -1.10 -0.23
tNERD -0.25 -0.66 1.78 -1.43 0.83 1.12 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.73

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 116 7.9% 61.3% 90.6 mph 26 15.2s -7 0.0%
Z-score 0.90 -1.29 -1.12 -1.48 -0.69 -2.65
pNERD -1.80 -0.65 -0.56 0.00 0.69 1.33 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.80

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 96 11.6% 64.5% 95.2 mph 27 17.9s -8 0.0%
Z-score -0.31 0.52 0.25 0.62 -0.43 -0.49
pNERD 0.62 0.26 0.12 0.62 0.43 0.25 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.10

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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

A curiosity watch: Taj Bradley’s post-deadline audition in Minnesota meets a White Sox opener in Fraser Ellard and two lineups that haven’t exactly been must-stream. gNERD 8.63 sits below today’s slate average, but volatility plus competent bullpens leaves real late‑inning intrigue.

Bradley is the draw: acquired for Griffin Jax at the deadline, he brings upper‑90s heat and a cutter/curve/splitter mix, but he’s still calibrating after a rough Twins debut against these same Sox; his last turn showed league‑average underlying run prevention (game xFIP ~4.05) even if the box score didn’t flatter him. Chicago counters with Ellard, likely in opener/bullpen‑day duty; he’s logged only a handful of MLB innings this year and was used as an opener earlier this series, so pNERD is a data void and the viewing appeal is the uncertainty itself. The models align: average pNERD (Bradley 5.17, Ellard 0.00) and low team watchability (tNERD 2.72/4.37) hint at framing over fireworks, though both pens grade well and the gloves don’t, a combination that can manufacture drama. If you like trade‑era experiments and pitcher development subplots more than raw offense, this fits.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -72.2 7.9% -5.2 -31.4 35.7 $79.0M 27.5 -11.0 1.82
Z-score -1.15 -0.49 -0.93 -1.57 0.36 -1.26 -1.25 -0.51 -1.11
tNERD -1.15 -0.49 -0.93 -1.57 0.36 1.26 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.72

Minnesota Twins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -20.7 8.8% -4.9 -14.4 48.3 $145.1M 28.8 14.0 2.30
Z-score -0.31 0.25 -0.89 -0.72 1.02 -0.37 0.08 0.64 -0.17
tNERD -0.31 0.25 -0.89 -0.72 1.02 0.37 0.00 0.64 0.00 4.00 4.37

Fraser Ellard, Chicago White Sox

No detailed stats available

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 105 9.9% 62.7% 96.2 mph 24 18.7s 10 0.0%
Z-score 0.24 -0.31 -0.52 1.07 -1.21 0.14
pNERD -0.47 -0.16 -0.26 1.07 1.21 -0.07 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.17

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Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Today’s lowest gNERD comes with a hook: Kansas City turns back to rookie LHP Noah Cameron after a breather, opposite contact artisan Kyle Hendricks. If you like tempo and contrast, it’s Cameron’s quick pace and bat-killing changeup versus an Angels lineup with real thump up top, while the Royals still cling to the wild-card picture.

The model dings this one (gNERD 6.38, lowest on today’s slate) because the team and pitcher components are tepid: Angels tNERD is dragged down by shaky defense and bullpen, while Hendricks’ pNERD (1.67) reflects below-average whiffs and a modest xFIP profile; that said, he’s coming off 6 efficient innings of one-run ball. Cameron owns the higher pNERD (5.00) and the intrigue—he nearly no-hit Tampa in his debut and, under the hood, has run mid-3s FIP/xFIP with strike-throwing that plays.

Context tilts watchability toward Kansas City late: the Royals pair top-10 run prevention with tidy gloves, and Cameron’s return aims to stop a skid and avoid a sweep. Meanwhile, Jo Adell’s 30-plus-homer breakout gives the Angels some three-true-outcomes spice against a defense that converts balls in play. Slightly below-average watch, but there’s a viable “rookie steadies the ship” narrative here.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -41.4 10.6% 0.1 -43.7 0.4 $203.8M 29.2 -14.0 2.59
Z-score -0.65 1.72 -0.07 -2.18 -1.50 0.41 0.49 -0.65 0.40
tNERD -0.65 1.72 -0.07 -2.18 -1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 4.00 1.71

Kansas City Royals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -63.0 7.6% -5.3 11.4 37.3 $130.0M 28.8 32.0 2.11
Z-score -1.00 -0.74 -0.95 0.57 0.44 -0.58 0.08 1.47 -0.54
tNERD -1.00 -0.74 -0.95 0.57 0.44 0.58 0.00 1.47 0.00 4.00 4.37

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 118 7.7% 66.7% 86.4 mph 35 18.5s 0 0.0%
Z-score 1.02 -1.39 1.20 -3.39 1.65 -0.02
pNERD -2.04 -0.70 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.67

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 103 10.8% 62.5% 92.2 mph 25 16.7s -34 0.0%
Z-score 0.11 0.13 -0.61 -0.75 -0.95 -1.45
pNERD -0.23 0.07 -0.30 0.00 0.95 0.73 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.00

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