MLB: What to watch on September 5, 2025

• 05 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Top-of-the-dial gNERD plus a rookie flamethrower vs. a seasoned bat-misser in a tight AL East race—this is the day’s must-watch. Toronto’s defense-and-depth machine meets New York’s barrel brigade with real stakes attached.

Cam Schlittler brings the novelty and the noise: he debuted touching 100 mph and has settled in with a 2.61 ERA through nine starts, allowing one run across his last three (18 2/3 IP), the kind of raw stuff and recent run that juice his pNERD. Kevin Gausman counters after seven sharp innings with eight strikeouts versus Milwaukee, a reminder that his splitter-and-command profile still suppresses damage even when the headlines drift elsewhere. The team contrast is clean: the Yankees remain elite at generating thump and free passes, while Toronto grades out as one of baseball’s best fielding clubs, so batted-ball theater is likely. As for storylines, Toronto has had the upper hand in the matchup—including a July sweep—and arrives with a narrow division lead New York is desperate to trim, which raises the pitch-by-pitch tension. With top-quartile tNERDs on both sides and today’s highest gNERD (15.79), this has both substance and sizzle: rookie velocity, veteran craft, power vs. gloves, and playoff-position implications packed into nine innings.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Seattle Mariners @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Ace-vs.-ace energy with actual stakes: Logan Gilbert (pNERD 10.38) meets a freshly reactivated Chris Sale (8.25), and Seattle’s postseason nerves do the rest. A gNERD of 12.93 sits well above today’s average and around the historic 75th percentile, so this projects as one of the day’s better watches on quality alone.

Gilbert’s run-prevention chops (xFIP- ~62) and whiffs are humming—he struck out 13 A’s, then followed with a quality start at Cleveland—while Sale just returned from a rib fracture and logged 6 efficient innings of one-run ball against Philadelphia, so both sides bring frontline stuff without the qualifier. Seattle needs it; the Mariners currently hold the AL’s third Wild Card slot with little breathing room, which adds welcome edge to every pitch. The matchup tilt underneath the hood favors Seattle’s run-scoring potential (third in MLB in homers), especially with Cal Raleigh chasing catcher home-run history, while Atlanta—63–77 and playing spoiler—leans on Sale to mask a thinner lineup minus Austin Riley. If you like strike-throwers, both qualify (Sale’s xFIP- ~76; Gilbert’s is better), and the tNERD split (SEA > ATL) mirrors the on-paper contrast. In short: premium pitching, playoff implications, and enough thump to punish any mistake.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Atlanta Braves

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Top-tier gNERD with an actual storyline: Milwaukee’s high-tNERD machine rolls in behind ex-Bucco Quinn Priester, while Pittsburgh counters with Johan Oviedo’s post–Tommy John reboot fresh off a feel‑good Dodgers sweep. Also, if streaks are your thing: the Brewers have somehow won 16 straight games in which Priester has appeared.

At 12.58, this gNERD sits well above today’s average, driven by Milwaukee’s 9.85 tNERD profile—plus baserunning, defense, and a trustworthy bullpen—against a Pirates lineup with a low tNERD but newly interesting vibes. Priester’s pNERD (6.31) clears today’s median; the xFIP- (94) says “solid,” his pace is brisk, and he’s coming off 6 scoreless frames with 0 walks against Toronto—exactly the kind of tidy, watchable outing this model rewards.

Oviedo is the wild card: the model has scant data, but in a limited return he’s punched out 20 in 15.2 innings and stretched to 79 pitches last time, which keeps the bullpen from an early cameo. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh just swept the Dodgers and has won 12 of 16—a real‑time hook, not a prediction.

If you want skill plus subplot, this is near the top of today’s slate; if you want offense, Milwaukee’s recent .279/.467 hit/slug binge helps, too.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

**A gNERD of 12.5 with the day’s top tNERD in tow makes this a Mets-leaning watch: a thunderous lineup stepping into one of baseball’s most homer-happy yards against a Reds offense that rarely keeps pace. **
**It’s Andrew Abbott’s shiny results versus David Peterson’s sturdier indicators, with Great American’s fences likely to cast the deciding vote. **

The Mets’ bats are the draw: over their last 10 they’ve slugged .534 with 40 extra-base hits, while Juan Soto has gone .371 with five homers—numbers that square with the model’s barrel love for New York. Abbott arrives with sub-3.00 run prevention and five efficient innings against St. Louis in his pocket, but his underlying indicators trend closer to average, whereas Peterson’s xFIP- points better than his surface after a messy Miami start. In a park built for lift, that profile gap plus New York’s offense raises the ceiling for both quick strikeouts and quicker scoreboards. The Reds can still swipe a moment—Great American turns lazy flies into souvenirs—but their season-long bat-to-ball has lagged, which nudges the channel toward the visitors when choosing among today’s above-average options.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds

David Peterson, New York Mets

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

Cristopher Sánchez is the draw: a by-results top-tier arm whose 2025 looks ace-ish, opposite Miami’s pitchability experiment Valente Bellozo, a unique profile now back in a starter’s chair after long-relief duty. With a gNERD of 11.68—comfortably above today’s average and the historic median—this leans “tune in for Sánchez,” with curiosity value in how Bellozo’s quirks play against a high-tNERD Phillies club.

Sánchez’s pNERD (9.49) is powered by strong process indicators (xFIP- 69) and the results have followed; even the mainstream box-score line (2.66 ERA over 169+ IP) backs up the watch. The lefty’s harder sinker/change foundation and improved stuff give him multiple bat-missing looks without sacrificing strikes, which is exactly what you want when the model already loves him. Bellozo, meanwhile, owns a near-opposite pNERD (0.19) with a low-velo four-seam/ride profile, vanishing ground balls, and a new-season tweak (a tick of velo and a “kick-change”) that adds variance if not whiffs. He’s been mostly a long man this year, which further tilts the stability edge to Philadelphia. Add in Miami’s recent run prevention woes and the Phillies’ stronger tNERD, and this grades as a quality watch fronted by Sánchez’s efficiency and Miami’s controlled-chaos counter.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Valente Bellozo, Miami Marlins

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Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

This one rates above the day’s average on gNERD because it mixes a live-armed Gavin Williams with two top-10 bullpens and plenty of on-base chaos. Even if Tampa Bay’s starter is fluid, the Rays’ speed-vs.-Guardians defense contrast promises activity every inning.

Williams’ pNERD (5.5) and 96.6 mph heat fit the watchability bill; his underlying xFIP- sits right around league average, but the stuff plays and Cleveland backs him with elite gloves and a deep ‘pen. Tampa Bay counters with the league’s best baserunning in this matchup and another strong bullpen, which keeps the game taut even if the bats lag. The Rays have surged back into the Wild Card picture and enter this series on a heater, raising the stakes without relying on “momentum” narratives. Listings vary on the Rays’ opener: several outlets tab lefty Ian Seymour rather than newly acquired Griffin Jax (who’s been leveraged late since the deadline), so plan for mixing and matching. Cleveland’s offense has scuffled overall, but their run prevention (gloves plus bullpen) keeps them in games—precisely the recipe for a high-gNERD, tension-first watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Tampa Bay Rays

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

No detailed stats available

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Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

If you like contrasts, this one’s clean: José Soriano’s bowling‑ball sinker versus the A’s big‑rookie bats—with a wild card in Mason Barnett’s second-ever start. gNERD pegs it above today’s average (11.08) because Soriano’s pNERD is doing the heavy lifting and Oakland’s lineup can make any ballpark sound loud.

Soriano arrives hot and hard: seven scoreless his last time out and consecutive shutout turns recently, built on an elite ground‑ball profile and stingy home‑run rate; it’s the righty at his best when the sinker/knuckle‑curve combo is landing for strikes. Barnett is the volatility variable—tagged for five in four in his debut—but he brings upper‑90s heat and a nasty slider from a midseason acquisition pedigree, so the outcome bandwidth is wide. Oakland’s tNERD edge (6.93 to 1.59) leans on watchable young thump: rookie Nick Kurtz already authored a four‑homer night this summer, and if he’s in there, swings get interesting fast. The Angels’ support system has been shaky defensively, and with Taylor Ward nursing a stitched‑up forehead, the lineup behind Soriano may be thinner than usual.

Translation: tune in for Soriano’s efficiency and grounders, stay for the possibility that the A’s mash or Barnett surprises—either path yields decent watchability.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Athletics

Los Angeles Angels

Mason Barnett, Athletics

No detailed stats available

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

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Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Houston-born Merrill Kelly, freshly imported at the deadline, takes the ball for Texas with MLB’s best run prevention behind him — that alone bumps this rivalry’s watchability. Houston’s starter is TBD after Spencer Arrighetti hit the IL, so expect some bullpen theater.

At a gNERD of 10.95, this sits a tick above today’s average and near the historical median, which feels right: steady intrigue more than must-see. Kelly’s mid-rotation pNERD (5.19) is buoyed by a strong xFIP- (92), and he’s slated to go here, giving Texas a reliable strike-thrower who’s kept hits and walks in check since the trade. Houston’s angle is uncertainty plus quality relief; their bullpen grades well in the inputs and, with the rotation in flux post-Arrighetti, could be a feature rather than a bug.

The Rangers’ offense is thinned — Corey Seager (appendectomy) and Marcus Semien (foot) are out, and Nathan Eovaldi’s rotator cuff blow keeps pressure on Kelly — but Texas still pairs elite run prevention with good defense and baserunning. Houston leads the division despite a whiff-happy month, though Yordan Álvarez just looked very ready to punish mistakes. Net: if you like tidy pitching, defense, and a dash of Astros “positive regression” (their luck component pops), this is your kind of watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Rookie sizzle vs. veteran guile: Boston hands the ball to Payton Tolle—fresh off eight strikeouts and 98+ heat in his debut—against Arizona’s Eduardo Rodríguez, a contact-leaning lefty whose xERA looks kinder than his ERA.
With a mid-pack gNERD, the draw is team-side chaos (defense, baserunning, bullpens) more than star-level starter showdowns.

gNERD 10.80 is about average for today, propped up by Boston’s excellent tNERD (9.06) across barrels, baserunning, defense, and a strong bullpen, opposite Arizona’s 5.09 tNERD, sagging under relief work and injuries (closer Kevin Ginkel still sidelined). Tolle’s pNERD is 0 simply because the sample is newborn, but the stuff is very real; Rodríguez’s 2025 line under the hood is sturdier than it looks (4.29 xERA, 20.9 K%, ~92 mph), so expect more pitchability than punchouts. Arizona’s late-summer bounce after a trade-deadline sell-off adds a little extra narrative juice without overstating “momentum.” Expect balls in play early, Boston pressure on the bases, and the bullpens to decide it—unless Tolle’s swing-and-miss shows up again and tilts the night before the desert gets a say.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

Arizona Diamondbacks

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

A surging division leader with thump meets a rookie All‑Star with Rule‑5 backstory; if you like contrasts, this one’s your flavor. The gNERD is solidly watchable, powered more by Detroit’s side of the ledger than Chicago’s.

With gNERD 10.48, this sits near the middle of today’s slate but above the historical median; the split is stark: Tigers’ tNERD 7.53 vs. White Sox 2.65. Detroit’s watchability comes from a first‑place push and a lineup boosted by Riley Greene’s star turn and Gleyber Torres’ plate‑discipline spike, while Chicago arrives short‑handed without Luis Robert Jr. (Grade 2 hamstring). On the mound, pNERD tilts to Jack Flaherty (6.10; xFIP‑ 87), who just drew A.J. Hinch’s public kudos and has handled the Sox this year, against 25‑year‑old Shane Smith (4.68), a Rule‑5 pick who made the AL All‑Star team and is coming off back‑to‑back quality turns. Smith brings mid‑90s velocity and some mystery; Flaherty brings the cleaner peripherals and the better defense behind him. Expect a competent watch with Tigers’ bats and Flaherty’s efficiency carrying the aesthetic, while Smith’s breakout potential supplies the intrigue.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Glasnow’s power-and-whiffs profile against a Rutschman-less Orioles lineup—and Baltimore’s shaky relief corps—makes this a pitching-first watch lifted by LA’s barrels and bullpen. With Will Smith likely sidelined and Ohtani limited to DH while he kicks a chest cold, the Dodgers aren’t at full blast, so a gNERD of 10.03 lands this in the “solid, not must-stop-your-life” tier.

The pNERD tilt favors LA (Glasnow 5.61 vs. Kremer 4.00), and the inputs agree: Glasnow’s xFIP- of 89 with premium velo suggests bat-missing upside, while Kremer’s xFIP- at 99 reads league-average. LA’s tNERD (7.06) reflects top-end barrel rate and a strong pen; Baltimore’s (3.40) is weighed down by defense and bullpen. Narrative garnish: Kremer faces the organization that drafted him, and Glasnow returns to Camden, where he’s handled the park just fine. The Orioles did just sweep San Diego and Camden Yards will buzz around the 30th anniversary festivities for 2,131, but don’t overrate vibes; the real watch is whether Glasnow lands enough strikes to let the stuff play and whether LA’s star bats can dent a hittable starter.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baltimore Orioles

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

If Pablo López makes his IL return, this jumps a tier: a frontline arm fresh off a crisp rehab tune-up (5.2 scoreless, 7 K, 82 pitches) facing Michael Wacha and his still-nasty changeup. Kansas City just shelved Seth Lugo, so Wacha is the rotation’s ballast while Byron Buxton arrives hot, which nudges this from background noise to “keep an eye on it.”

The gNERD (8.79) sits below today’s average because the team components are meh—both lineups have run-light profiles and the baserunning isn’t exactly artful—but the bullpens grade out fine here, and López’s status means our pNERD input likely undershoots reality. If he goes, you’re getting a miss-happy starter who looked ready in rehab against a veteran who doesn’t chase strikeouts so much as weak contact with that elite cambio; Wacha has also fared well historically vs. Minnesota.

Context helps: the Royals are still in the mix and, without Lugo, badly need length from Wacha; the Twins counter with Buxton on a seven-game heater and a top starter potentially back, which is enough novelty to bump watchability above the raw score. Probables list López vs. Wacha, with the standings edge to KC.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Kansas City Royals

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

A sinkerball symposium: St. Louis’s Michael McGreevy lives on grounders while San Francisco’s Carson Seymour auditions with a high‑octane sinker/slider. If you enjoy infielders earning their keep and managers leaning on bullpens, this is your lane.

With a gNERD of 8.38, this sits below today’s average, and the pNERD pair (3.93 Seymour, 3.67 McGreevy) suggests craft over whiffs. The Cardinals’ tNERD edge comes from elite gloves and a sturdy pen, while both lineups lag in barrel rate, pointing to contact-heavy innings rather than fireworks. McGreevy’s recent form reinforces the blueprint: six innings of one-run ball in Cincinnati, zero strikeouts, 14 grounders, sinkers everywhere; he even handled the Giants well last season. Seymour brings novelty: a recent call-up with mid-to-high‑90s heat, a deep mix, and some walk risk—volatile enough to be fun if he’s in the zone. San Francisco’s Matt Chapman arrives swinging after a two‑homer night, a needed jolt for a below-average offense. Keep an eye on St. Louis’s lineup card; injuries for Nolan Arenado and Alec Burleson have been monitored this week.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals

Carson Seymour, San Francisco Giants

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Cubs aesthetics, Nats reality. Chicago brings barrels, baserunning and glove work; Washington brings… less of all three. If you’re here for whiffs, temper expectations: both pNERDs are below average, which nudges this gNERD to the low end of today’s range.

Chicago’s tNERD (9.88) does the heavy lifting — strong barrel rate, plus baserunning, and top-tier fielding — while Washington’s tNERD (1.32) is dragged down by weak bats, gloves, and a rough bullpen. Jake Irvin’s indicators (xFIP- 115, tiny SwStr%) point to contact over strikeouts, and the Nats are still shorthanded after placing MacKenzie Gore on the IL late last week. Javier Assad adds a small twist: he only recently returned from a long oblique layoff following rehab stints and a mid-August season debut, so efficiency more than electricity is the expectation. The broader stakes lean blue: Chicago sits firmly in the postseason mix and already took two of three from Washington earlier this year. Net: a watch for team quality (Cubs) and crisp fundamentals more than pitcher fireworks; if you prefer defense and opportunism to strikeout theater, this plays.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Washington Nationals

Chicago Cubs

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

This grades as a low-end watch on today’s slate, but it gets a late boost if San Diego indeed runs out Nick Pivetta against Kyle Freeland at Coors. Think “bullpen-backed favorite in a chaos park” more than duel: Padres’ solid tNERD meets the league’s messiest run environment and a Rockies club dragging a negative tNERD.

Our model shows a modest gNERD 7.45, bottom of today’s range and below the historical median, largely because the Padres starter was TBD; reports point to Pivetta, which raises the ceiling a bit. Pivetta’s skills travel: on the road he’s sat around a 4.09 FIP/4.19 xFIP with a strong K-BB profile, and he’s been the Padres’ steadiest rotation piece amid injuries to Joe Musgrove and Michael King. Freeland counters with contact and thin swing-miss; righties have run a .366 wOBA against him with a 4.64 FIP this year, and he’s fresh off a brief, heated outing versus the Giants. Coors still inflates offense, so even a Pivetta edge can turn into “bring a pen” scoring, especially against Colorado’s bottom-tier bullpen. Padres tNERD (7.12) is buoyed by elite relief and a strong broadcast, while the Rockies’ tNERD (-0.89) reflects weak bats, defense, and ‘pen—so prioritize this if you want Padres power vs. altitude more than a tight, tactical pitcher’s game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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