MLB: What to watch on September 6, 2025

• 06 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, 4:15p

Summary

Aces, stakes, and speed: this is the slate’s must‑watch duel. With a gNERD of 14.89—best today and around the 95th‑percentile historically—you’re here for the arms and the leverage.

Hunter Brown’s pNERD (8.1) rides an elite xFIP‑ in the mid‑70s plus mid‑ to upper‑90s velocity; that’s the profile of a whiff machine that also keeps the ball in the yard. Jacob deGrom (pNERD 9.96) brings his own xFIP‑ in the high‑70s and still works with upper‑90s heat; he’s looked like himself again this year, and the strikeout totals for both starters back it up. Fresh off a walk‑off that trimmed the AL West gap, the Rangers add urgency—and some theater—to every pitch. Texas also rates well for watchability via defense and baserunning (tNERD components positive), a nice counter to Houston’s superior bullpen (also positive), so close games should feel earned rather than random. The subplot: Houston’s lineup has scuffled in big spots lately, which nudges the edge toward whichever ace blinks less. If you prefer underlying indicators, the Rangers’ run differential says they’ve been better than their record, which only tightens the vibe.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

Jesús Luzardo (now a Phillie) versus Sandy Alcantara is a clean, stuff-forward duel: a whiffs-and-pace lefty against a returning Cy Young with the heater back. With a gNERD of 14.13 near the top of the slate and well above typical historical games, expect punchouts early and, if the starters tire, some late-innings chaos.

Luzardo, acquired from Miami in December, brings bat-missing traits and one of the quicker tempos on the board. That plays against a Marlins lineup light on barrels and a bullpen prone to leakage, while Philadelphia’s tNERD is buoyed by real baserunning value and competent defense. Alcantara’s velocity has returned to 97–99 and, lately, he’s been working deeper with sharper K/BB, including three straight seven-inning turns, suggesting his post-surgery form is stabilizing. Philadelphia’s bats add watchability insurance—exhibit A: four homers in a 9–3 win in this series—so even if this opens as a chess match, it may finish as a sprint.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Two starters with top-shelf pNERDs (Yamamoto 8.7, Rogers 8.2) push this gNERD 13.67 matchup near the top of today’s slate. It’s Yamamoto’s split-powered precision versus Baltimore’s midseason revelation, Trevor Rogers—a clean strength-on-strength duel for a Dodgers club wobbling a bit.

Los Angeles arrives having been swept in Pittsburgh and then walked off in the opener at Camden Yards, after a late Glasnow scratch forced Ohtani to spot start and the Dodgers lost catcher Dalton Rushing to a leg injury. Yamamoto is the draw: on the road he’s running a 2.66 FIP/2.82 xFIP with elite K-BB% and improved splitter shape/velo, which has underpinned his Cy-caliber form. Rogers has been Baltimore’s bolt from the blue, carrying a sub-3 FIP profile (2.57) and even setting franchise pace with a microscopic early-season run. The tNERD split (LAD 7.06, BAL 3.40) hints at the backdrop: a barrel-happy Dodgers lineup and sturdy pen against an O’s club that’s lighter on defense and relief help, though Gunnar/Adley’s crew just showed late thunder. Add Ohtani and a re-heating Betts to the screen appeal, and you’ve got appointment pitching with real leverage for L.A. to steady itself.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baltimore Orioles

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, 3:10p

Summary

It’s Skubal Day, which means a high-gNERD game built around an ace at full buzzsaw strength against a short-handed lineup. If you’re sampling one game for pure pitching pleasure, this is the one. Detroit’s 13.14 gNERD sits near the top of today’s slate, and the why is obvious: Tarik Skubal’s towering 13.84 pNERD is backed by an elite xFIP- (60), high-octane velo, and whiffs/strikes galore, with MLB’s latest Cy Young polling putting him squarely in front and fresh dominance in his last turn. The matchup edge widens because Chicago is missing Luis Robert Jr., thinning an offense already dragged down by poor contact quality and shaky defense per our inputs. Detroit’s team watchability (tNERD 7.53) is buoyed by a real step forward at the plate and pressure-creating baserunning, both trends that have defined their rise. Opposite Skubal is Martín Pérez (pNERD 2.25), a soft-contact lefty with minimal swing-and-miss, which only amplifies the contrast in styles. Probables are confirmed as a lefty-lefty tilt: Pérez for the Sox, Skubal for the Tigers. Expect crisp tempo, a strikeout clinic, and Detroit’s bats and legs supplying enough action to keep the channel right here.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Martín Pérez, Chicago White Sox

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Brandon Woodruff 2.0 — fewer mph, more fastballs — versus a Pirates club fresh off three straight over the Dodgers gives this gNERD 12.49 matchup some “prove-it” juice. With Milwaukee’s glove-and-legs act and a retooled Woodruff against Pittsburgh’s light bats, the question is whether Mitch Keller can keep this close long enough to matter.

Woodruff’s above-average pNERD (6.94) matches the makeover: velocity down, cutter added, and a four-seamer producing the highest whiff rate among starters since his return — while he lives in the zone. That’s both novel and watchable. Milwaukee’s tNERD (9.85) is powered by elite baserunning and plus defense, so even routine contact can turn kinetic; the bullpen’s dinged (Nick Mears to the IL; Trevor Megill on the shelf), and Christian Yelich is day-to-day with back soreness, but the machine has kept humming.

Keller’s pNERD (4.21) reads league-average by xFIP, and his August wobble showed up again in Boston, yet he’s still capable of stacking quality starts — the classic volatility that can elevate a mid-tier watch. The Brewers already pocketed the opener 5-2, and this one sits comfortably above today’s average by gNERD and near the historic upper quartile — primarily on the strength of Woodruff’s reinvention and Milwaukee’s action-forward style.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Rookie righty Jonah Tong’s funk-meets-physics delivery and IVB-lifted heater get a stress test in Great American “Small” Park, where one mistake tends to leave quickly. Across the way, cutter-adopting Brady Singer and a Reds club clinging to Wild Card relevance make this a clean duel of upside stuff versus contact management.

The gNERD sits at 11.96, comfortably above today’s slate average, and it’s driven by a Mets tNERD (11.97) that blends top-tier barrels, competent baserunning, and a useful bullpen; the Reds’ low tNERD (2.57) suppresses the floor but, in this park, raises the ceiling on weird. Tong is the novelty: an over-the-top release, mid‑90s ride, big 12–6, and a Vulcan-change that the org just optimized; with a pNERD of 0.00, you’re scouting shapes more than track record, which is half the fun. Singer’s underlying line has hovered around league-average run prevention (think xFIP in the mid‑3s), and the cutter gives him another lane beyond sinker/slider—useful if he can keep the ball off the power alleys here.

Context helps: Cincinnati’s offense has bled punch since late June and, under Terry Francona, has even dialed back the running game despite Elly’s wheels, trimming chaos on the bases. That nudges watchability toward the Mets’ bats and Tong’s experiment.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions and the NERD scores.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 10:05a

Summary

AL East juice without the ace gloss: two top-10 tNERD lineups square off, with Aaron Judge back in right and Jazz Chisholm Jr. pushing through bruised knees, so the bats are the draw more than the mounds. It’s a watch-now matchup because both clubs rate highly on offense/defense, and the standings stakes are real.

At 11.70, the gNERD sits above today’s average and near the historical 75th percentile, driven by twin top-8.5 tNERDs rather than the modest pitcher slate. Toronto brings positive batting and fielding components, while New York’s power core (headlined by an MVP-caliber Judge) fuels elite barrel numbers in our model. Chris Bassitt’s pNERD is middling, but the underlying is better: a 90 xFIP- in our inputs and, earlier this year, MLB-best FIP built on mix-and-weak-contact rather than velo, a profile that plays against a three-true-outcome-heavy opponent. Luis Gil’s return from a lat strain brings stuff but also walk/strike% concerns and shorter outings; if command wavers, this becomes a bullpen game for New York. Add that Bo Bichette has been piling up hits again, and you get sustained ball-in-play pressure against the Yankees’ staff. If you’re ranking by pure entertainment, take the hitters and the stakes and live with the imperfect pNERDs.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:05p

Summary

Shane Baz’s upper-90s four-seamer/hammer-curve combo in a homer‑happy Steinbrenner Field against Cleveland’s A‑tier bullpen and a tinkering Tanner Bibee is a solid watch. With a gNERD of 11.51 — a tick above today’s slate — this leans entertaining for both stuff and stakes.

Baz owns the better pNERD (6.69) and recent form; his last two outings posted FIP marks of 1.80 (at Cleveland) and 2.13 (vs. Seattle), with the velo bump and curveball taking center stage per recent breakdowns. Cleveland’s counter is the relief corps: still one of the sport’s best on talent and run prevention, which helps offset a below‑average offense (Guardians tNERD 5.80). Bibee’s pNERD (3.80) reflects a year of searching — his FIP sat around 4.7 this week as he works to rediscover his preferred release “honey hole.” Tampa Bay’s tNERD (6.73) leans on speed and pressure; that plays in this compact temporary home, which has been yielding plenty of fly balls that leave quickly. Both clubs hover around .500 and remain in the Wild Card scrum, so leverage is real even if aesthetics differ: Rays chaos on the bases versus Cleveland’s bullpen machine, with Baz’s swing‑and‑miss the swing factor.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Tampa Bay Rays

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

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Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

A comfortably above-average watch (gNERD 11.34) built on a big tNERD split—Cubs 9.88 vs. Nats 1.32—and a playoff-chasing Chicago team that turns baserunning into a feature, not a footnote. It’s also a tidy pitcher study: Matthew Boyd’s metronomic competence versus Brad Lord’s sink-and-run novelty.

With today’s slate averaging 11.07, this game clears the bar thanks mostly to the Cubs: top-10 run creation and a go-go identity under Craig Counsell, plus a postseason race that gives every extra 90 feet meaning. Boyd has stacked six-inning, ≤3 ER outings most of the year and has paired that reliability with solid miss-and-limit contact traits (think strong K/BB and FIP near his run prevention), while Chicago’s rotation churn makes his steadiness matter even more. Lord, meanwhile, brings upper-90s life, elite arm-side run, and a ground-ball tilt that can smother rallies if his strike-throwing holds. Matchup note: this is indeed Lord vs. Boyd. The Nationals’ injury tangle (Keibert Ruiz concussion rehab; MacKenzie Gore on the IL) and bottom-tier offense/defense keep their tNERD anchored, but Lord’s movement gives this a scouting-hook undercard while the Cubs’ baserunning and playoff stakes supply the main event.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Washington Nationals

Chicago Cubs

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

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Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 5:10p

Summary

Come for late‑inning drama, not a strikeout clinic: Boston’s high‑octane run prevention and top‑tier bullpen meet Arizona’s habit of letting the endgame get weird. Giolito vs. Pfaadt profiles as competent rather than electric, so the watchability comes from defense, baserunning, and whether the D‑backs’ relief corps can hold up.

With a gNERD of 10.91, this sits a tick above the historical median and right around today’s slate average, and that tracks: Boston’s tNERD is inflated by gloves, legs, and a relief unit that’s been one of MLB’s best, anchored by an in‑form Aroldis Chapman. Arizona’s middle‑of‑the‑pack tNERD is dragged down by a bullpen that’s graded poorly by both run‑prevention and leverage metrics, the very recipe for ninth‑inning TV you can’t turn off. The starters’ average pNERD (Giolito 3.13, Pfaadt 4.55) underscores that this isn’t about whiffs, though Pfaadt’s sweeper can still miss bats when he locates. Recent storyline bonus: Arizona just put up a 10‑spot with Corbin Carroll’s 30th, so Boston’s run‑prevention bona fides will be immediately stress‑tested. Giolito has steadied Boston’s rotation enough to hand leads to those late‑inning hammers, which is the real viewing hook here. Fox’s board also confirms Giolito vs. Pfaadt, so plan accordingly.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

Arizona Diamondbacks

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

A split‑screen kind of watch: the A’s bring the better tNERD against an Angels club that pairs a marquee arm with some messy defense. It’s Yusei Kikuchi’s All‑Star turn versus J.T. Ginn’s sneaky‑good run suppression, with Mike Trout newly back after a brief skin‑infection detour.

At 9.26 gNERD, this sits a notch below both today’s average (11.07) and the historical median (10.10), but the contrast carries it. Ginn’s pNERD (5.82) rides a strong xFIP- (78), though his 2024 MLB splits showed lefties doing more damage (.319 AVG), a wrinkle if the Angels lean left‑handed. Kikuchi, meanwhile, was imported on a three‑year deal, named the Angels’ Opening Day starter, and earned an All‑Star nod; if the mid‑90s fastball/slider mix shows up, he can keep contact quality in check. Trout’s status matters for watchability—he returned to DH on Sept. 4 after missing two games and was only day‑to‑day the night before.

Chaos factor alert: the Angels rank 28th in Defensive Runs Saved (‑44), so balls in play may turn into extra bases as often as outs. Translation: a solid, pitcher‑led watch with real BABIP theater—tune in to see whether the upstart righty can outfox an error‑prone defense while the Angels’ All‑Star hire steadies the other end.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Athletics

Los Angeles Angels

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, 4:15p

Summary

Joe Ryan’s bat-missing fastball meets a Royals lineup that rarely whiffs, which is a fun tug-of-war even if the rest of the card is mid-tier. The mystery is Stephen Kolek: fresh call-up, grounder-leaning repertoire, and a defense good enough to make contact work.

With a gNERD of 9.26, this sits below both today’s average and the historical median, but Ryan’s pNERD 6.61 props things up; his low-3s FIP and strong K-BB profile travel, and his xFIP- (84) signals real skill independent of run prevention noise. The matchup intrigue is real: Kansas City is among MLB’s toughest teams to strike out, so Ryan’s elite fastball shape and whiff rates get a proper stress test.

Opposite him, Kolek was summoned after Seth Lugo hit the IL and may stick as a starter; he brings a sinker/four-seam/cutter look with a changeup, more contact than chases, and recent length (6 IP, 1 R in his KC debut). That profile plays up behind KC’s gloves.

Team-wise, twin 4.3-ish tNERDs reflect tepid bats; the Twins also sold off chunks of their bullpen at the deadline, trimming late-inning drama. Still: Ryan’s excellence vs. Royals’ contact makes for crisp baseball.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Kansas City Royals

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals

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Seattle Mariners @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Come for Hurston Waldrep’s splitter; stay to see if Seattle’s bats can solve it before their bullpen and gloves get in the way. With a gNERD of 8.97 (below today’s average), this is mostly a one-man pitching show against a lineup that can hit but also wobble late.

Waldrep owns the higher pNERD and real momentum from actual skills: in August he ran a 2.65 FIP over 35.2 big-league innings, powered by a cartoonish splitter that’s produced whiff rates north of 50%. Seattle’s side of the ledger leans offense (team 111 wRC+) with Cal Raleigh and friends supplying barrels, but the defense has been underwater and the bullpen has sprung leaks — issues that resurfaced in the series opener. Bryce Miller’s lower pNERD matches the peripherals: an xFIP hovering around 5.00 and shaky splits, particularly away, dampen the duel factor. Atlanta’s lineup remains streaky and down an impact bat with Austin Riley out for the year, though it did scratch out a late 4-1 win to start this set. If you’re prioritizing pure craft, watch Waldrep carve; if you prefer chaos equity, monitor innings seven through nine when Seattle’s gloves and relief corps join the plot.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Atlanta Braves

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

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San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15p

Summary

Prefer your baseball with balls in play and fielders doing cardio? Busch’s homer-suppressing air plus Andre Pallante’s grounder tilt versus a contact-forward Justin Verlander sets that table. Add the subplot: San Francisco’s lineup just got louder with Rafael Devers, while St. Louis is shorthanded (Nolan Arenado still out; Willson Contreras serving a suspension).

gNERD at 8.12 trails today’s average (11.07), and modest pNERDs (Verlander 3.17, Pallante 3.91) suggest fewer whiffs and more sequencing than sizzle. Verlander’s xFIP- is 109 with diminished bat-missing; Pallante’s 97 comes via sinkers and extreme ground balls, a style Busch rewards. The Cards’ elite defense (+24.8 fielding runs) fits that script, and both pens grade as strengths, so late innings should be tidy rather than chaotic. The name-brand draw is Verlander himself—on the mound per probables after an up-and-down 2024 and a midseason IL hiccup—versus a pitch-to-contact righty who trusts his gloves.

If you’re triaging screens, this rates as “background with upside”: sub-avg team watchability (tNERD 4.03 vs. 5.13) but current stakes keep it relevant, with both clubs still hovering around the race even as the Cardinals juggle absences.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

Coors usually promises chaos; this one grades out as the slate’s wallflower. gNERD’s cellar score is driven by two low pNERDs and a Rockies offense that tends to admire the view more than the zone.

Randy Vásquez brings a sub-10% K rate with FIP/xFIP around 5.9/6.0, the kind of contact profile that can get loud at altitude, and it’s why his pNERD drags this matchup down even before first pitch. McCade Brown adds mystery rather than magnetism: he debuted on August 24 and was tagged by Pittsburgh, and while his minors featured big strikeout numbers, he’s still an unproven, post–Tommy John call-up. The Rockies just blanked San Diego behind Kyle Freeland and a surging Hunter Goodman, but that says more about one great night than a trend for baseball’s least watchable lineup by tNERD. If you’re hunting upside, the Padres’ respectable tNERD rides a strong bullpen and a broadcast that won’t make you reach for the mute, but the pitching centerpiece isn’t exactly a museum piece. The pick here is background viewing unless you’re scouting Brown’s raw stuff or waiting to see if Goodman stays hot.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

McCade Brown, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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