Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on September 7, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
15.9 10:40a New York Mets 12.2 Cincinnati Reds 2.6 Brandon Sproat No data Hunter Greene 11.9
14.8 10:35a Milwaukee Brewers 9.8 Pittsburgh Pirates 3.8 Jacob Misiorowski 11.1 Bubba Chandler No data
12.6 10:35a Toronto Blue Jays 8.6 New York Yankees 8.4 Max Scherzer 3.0 Max Fried 5.3
12.3 9:10a Cleveland Guardians 6.0 Tampa Bay Rays 6.8 Parker Messick No data Drew Rasmussen 6.8
11.3 1:10p Boston Red Sox 8.8 Arizona Diamondbacks 5.0 Brayan Bello 3.8 Ryne Nelson 5.0
11.1 11:35a Houston Astros 5.9 Texas Rangers 5.7 Framber Valdez 6.9 Patrick Corbin 3.8
10.7 11:20a Washington Nationals 1.2 Chicago Cubs 10.2 Andrew Alvarez No data Drew Pomeranz 5.1
10.6 11:15a San Francisco Giants 4.0 St. Louis Cardinals 5.0 Kai-Wei Teng No data Sonny Gray 7.1
10.5 10:40a Philadelphia Phillies 8.6 Miami Marlins 5.1 Taijuan Walker 2.3 TBD No data
9.0 9:05a Seattle Mariners 4.6 Atlanta Braves 2.7 Luis Castillo 5.0 Spencer Strider 5.8
8.9 10:40a Chicago White Sox 2.8 Detroit Tigers 7.5 Davis Martin 3.1 Charlie Morton 4.3
8.8 12:10p San Diego Padres 6.9 Colorado Rockies -0.4 Dylan Cease 7.7 Tanner Gordon 3.4
8.4 1:07p Athletics 7.1 Los Angeles Angels 1.5 Luis Severino 3.2 Mitch Farris No data
7.8 11:10a Minnesota Twins 4.4 Kansas City Royals 4.5 Bailey Ober 3.3 Michael Lorenzen 3.4
7.6 10:35a Los Angeles Dodgers 6.8 Baltimore Orioles 3.3 Clayton Kershaw 3.7 Tomoyuki Sugano 1.4

Notes:

Detail

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

A 100-mph debut versus a 100-mph ace in one of baseball’s loudest home-run launchpads is appointment television. With a top-of-the-day gNERD of 15.89, this pairs Hunter Greene’s pNERD rocket with the mystery box of Brandon Sproat’s first MLB start and a Mets lineup that barrels with intent.

Sproat arrives with triple‑digit heat and a late‑summer surge at Triple‑A (July IL Pitcher of the Month; 0.67 ERA), the capstone to a call-up the club says he’s earned; the subplot is whether a rookie can keep the ball in the bandbox at Great American. Greene, meanwhile, is back healthy and shoving, sitting around 99–100 mph with a nastier slider and improved strike‑throwing—exactly the profile that makes his 11.90 pNERD pop. The park amplifies all of it: Cincinnati is annually among the game’s friendliest HR venues, so contact in the air tends to become fireworks.

The watchability tilt comes from the split personality here: Mets tNERD is elite—hard contact and real run creation—against a Reds offense that’s scuffled and run up one of MLB’s higher K rates, an invitation for either punchouts or loud punishment. If you like volatility, this is your game: Greene’s electricity, Sproat’s debut unknowns, and a stadium that turns near‑misses into souvenirs.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 92.8 10.4% 6.9 1.4 44.2 $332.0M 29.7 32.0 3.32 — —
Z-score 1.52 1.56 1.02 0.08 0.77 2.14 1.00 1.46 1.82 — —
tNERD 1.52 1.56 1.02 0.08 0.77 0.00 0.00 1.46 1.82 4.00 12.24

Cincinnati Reds

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -44.8 7.0% 4.7 -7.3 18.4 $115.7M 28.7 -22.0 2.09 — —
Z-score -0.70 -1.22 0.67 -0.36 -0.55 -0.77 -0.02 -1.00 -0.59 — —
tNERD -0.70 -1.22 0.67 -0.36 -0.55 0.77 0.02 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.64

Brandon Sproat, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 82 15.2% 69.3% 99.5 mph 25 17.1s -21 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.15 2.23 2.34 2.57 -0.95 -1.14 — — — —
pNERD 2.29 1.12 1.17 2.00 0.95 0.57 0.00 0.00 3.80 11.90

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

Bring caffeine for the radar gun: Jacob Misiorowski’s lightning bolts meet a Pirates staff that’s still to-be-announced, with a real chance of a Bubba Chandler cameo. With a gNERD of 14.82 sitting near the top of today’s slate and toward the high end historically, this is a worthy watch. Misiorowski’s pNERD (11.08) does the heavy lifting, and the résumé backs it up: he averaged 99.5 mph and touched 102.4 in June’s duel with Paul Skenes, and opened his career with five no-hit innings before exiting with cramps. The Pirates haven’t formally named a starter (ESPN lists “undecided”), and recent reports suggest an opener like Carmen Mlodzinski with Chandler in a bulk role; if Chandler appears, expect triple digits and prospect-theater.

Milwaukee’s big tNERD (9.82) is fueled by a relentless running game, which has produced record-setting theft binges and keeps every single on edge, while their defense and bullpen depth cover seams even amid injuries. Pittsburgh’s modest tNERD (3.75) reflects a lineup that too often needs Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz to do the heavy lifting. In short: elite stuff plus chaos on the bases make this highly watchable; just don’t tune in expecting a contact clinic from the home side.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 49.0 6.4% 14.0 20.9 48.7 $112.2M 27.6 -34.0 2.66 — —
Z-score 0.81 -1.71 2.17 1.05 1.00 -0.82 -1.14 -1.55 0.53 — —
tNERD 0.81 -1.71 2.17 1.05 1.00 0.82 1.14 0.00 0.53 4.00 9.82

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -109.0 7.9% -4.7 10.9 37.5 $88.9M 28.4 8.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -1.73 -0.48 -0.84 0.55 0.43 -1.13 -0.33 0.37 -0.74 — —
tNERD -1.73 -0.48 -0.84 0.55 0.43 1.13 0.33 0.37 0.00 4.00 3.75

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 76 13.8% 66.2% 99.3 mph 23 19.9s 31 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.51 1.56 1.01 2.48 -1.47 1.08 — — — —
pNERD 3.01 0.78 0.51 2.00 1.47 -0.54 0.05 0.00 3.80 11.08

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

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Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, 10:35a

Summary

Two Maxes, one barometer: Max Fried’s groove meets Max Scherzer’s “extra day for the back,” so the lineups and context carry a lot of the watchability here. With a gNERD of 12.61 sitting well above today’s average, this is a top-tier pick even if the mound duel is more uneven than marquee.

Toronto pushed Scherzer to this start after leaving his last outing with upper‑back tightness; he’s expected to go, but his pNERD lags and the profile (xFIP- 110) hints at traffic rather than whiffs. Meanwhile Fried’s the steadier draw: he’s back to sequencing five pitches, owns a sub‑3 FIP in 2025 with a mid‑3s xFIP, and has stacked three strong turns entering this one. The bats raise the floor: the Yankees lead the pack in barrel rate (and have been among the AL’s top homer groups), while the Jays pair thump with elite Statcast‑measured defense. Aaron Judge’s recent return to right field adds a little theater on every ball in play.

Net: strong tNERDs on both sides make this a “watch the contact quality” game—Fried’s command vs. Toronto’s bats and gloves, and whether Scherzer can navigate New York’s barrels without premium bat‑missing.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 94.7 8.3% -4.6 29.2 27.5 $248.4M 29.6 27.0 3.10 — —
Z-score 1.55 -0.16 -0.83 1.47 -0.08 1.01 0.89 1.23 1.40 — —
tNERD 1.55 -0.16 -0.83 1.47 -0.08 0.00 0.00 1.23 1.40 4.00 8.59

New York Yankees

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 110.6 11.6% -1.4 0.1 27.8 $290.9M 29.1 9.0 2.08 — —
Z-score 1.81 2.54 -0.31 0.01 -0.07 1.58 0.38 0.41 -0.61 — —
tNERD 1.81 2.54 -0.31 0.01 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.00 4.00 8.39

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 110 10.4% 66.4% 93.6 mph 40 19.2s -10 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.53 -0.07 1.08 -0.12 2.97 0.53 — — — —
pNERD -1.06 -0.04 0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.98

Max Fried, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 83 10.9% 63.3% 94.2 mph 31 20.6s -10 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.09 0.17 -0.28 0.16 0.62 1.64 — — — —
pNERD 2.17 0.08 -0.14 0.16 0.00 -0.82 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.25

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Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 9:10a

Summary

A shapeshifting changeup meets a rebuilt elbow with Wild Card oxygen on the line. Rookie lefty Parker Messick, fresh off a record-tying start, faces All-Star Drew Rasmussen in a duel that looks better than most on the slate by gNERD.

gNERD says “watch,” and the web agrees. Messick’s pNERD is blank only because the sample’s new; the substance isn’t—his mid‑80s changeup has been his calling card from Triple‑A to the bigs, and he opened his career with consecutive low‑walk, 6+ K, 0–1 R outings, including seven scoreless vs. these Rays. On the other side, Rasmussen’s pNERD is buoyed by run‑prevention skills (xFIP-friendly profile and mid‑90s velocity) and a carefully managed, successful return to a full starter’s load after elbow surgery; he even earned an All‑Star nod. Team-wise, this rates as entertaining because Tampa Bay runs well but kicks the ball too often, while Cleveland brings elite bullpen value and sure hands behind a light bat—precisely the sort of contrasts that tighten close games. Meanwhile, both clubs are hovering around the AL Wild Card chase, adding real stakes without pretending “momentum” is destiny.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -97.2 6.6% 6.7 16.9 49.5 $102.3M 27.5 -40.0 2.16 — —
Z-score -1.54 -1.54 0.99 0.85 1.04 -0.95 -1.25 -1.82 -0.44 — —
tNERD -1.54 -1.54 0.99 0.85 1.04 0.95 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.99

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -18.1 7.6% 11.5 -24.7 43.8 $89.9M 27.4 -22.0 2.27 — —
Z-score -0.27 -0.73 1.76 -1.23 0.75 -1.12 -1.35 -1.00 -0.23 — —
tNERD -0.27 -0.73 1.76 -1.23 0.75 1.12 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.76

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 85 9.5% 66.3% 95.7 mph 29 18.6s -19 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.97 -0.51 1.04 0.84 0.10 0.05 — — — —
pNERD 1.93 -0.25 0.52 0.84 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.82

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Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

Contact-first starters, zippy baserunning, and a high‑wire bullpen contrast make this one easy to watch. At gNERD 11.28 (above today’s slate average), the appeal is team action more than ace-on-ace pyrotechnics.

Brayan Bello vs. Ryne Nelson is indeed the matchup, with Nelson arriving on three straight quality starts and Bello fresh off a five-inning, three-run win. The pNERDs (Bello 3.84; Nelson 4.98) reflect light whiff profiles despite mid‑90s velocity, and near‑average xFIP- (Bello 101; Nelson 97), so expect contact over punchout theater. Boston’s tNERD (8.77) is buoyed by barrels, plus baserunning and defense, and a sturdy pen, while Arizona’s tNERD (4.97) mixes pop and speed with a relief corps that’s been bottom‑third by advanced metrics for much of 2025—fuel for late‑inning volatility. Add a tidy storyline: Arizona’s recent upswing and chance to close the set adds stakes, even if it’s not predictive of what happens next.

Net: above-median watchability driven by contrasting team traits; if you like balls in play, opportunistic running, and ninth‑inning dice rolls, this is worth your screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 15.6 9.5% 5.8 25.0 56.2 $191.8M 28.7 -6.0 2.47 — —
Z-score 0.27 0.82 0.85 1.26 1.38 0.25 -0.02 -0.27 0.16 — —
tNERD 0.27 0.82 0.85 1.26 1.38 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.16 4.00 8.77

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 55.4 9.0% 4.2 10.0 -2.1 $189.5M 29.5 3.0 2.19 — —
Z-score 0.92 0.42 0.59 0.51 -1.60 0.22 0.79 0.14 -0.39 — —
tNERD 0.92 0.42 0.59 0.51 -1.60 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 4.00 4.97

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 101 8.7% 62.6% 95.2 mph 26 19.9s -30 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.01 -0.89 -0.58 0.61 -0.69 1.08 — — — —
pNERD 0.02 -0.45 -0.29 0.61 0.69 -0.54 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.84

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 97 9.4% 65.6% 95.6 mph 27 20.1s -14 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.25 -0.56 0.72 0.79 -0.43 1.24 — — — —
pNERD 0.50 -0.28 0.36 0.79 0.43 -0.62 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.98

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Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

A groundball artist versus a reclamation project makes for sneaky-good theater: Framber Valdez’s elite run prevention skills meet Patrick Corbin’s surprisingly competent, cutter-aided reboot. With the Rangers’ lineup light on star power and Houston leaning on superior run-prevention pieces, this grades out as an above-average watch (gNERD 11.13) rather than a drop-everything event.

Valdez carries the pitching-side intrigue: his pNERD is well above today’s average, and the underlying stuff backs it up, with a xFIP around 3.0 and strong K-BB splits, especially versus lefties; recent noise from that catcher cross-up notwithstanding, he’s still the best bet on the mound. Corbin, once adrift, has become a home-park craftsman; his 2025 xFIP is sub-4 at Globe Life, buoyed by a steadier mix (more cutter/change) that’s limited damage enough to earn him this turn.

Team-wise, both clubs sit near the middle by tNERD, but Houston’s defense and bullpen support nudge the watchability up, while Texas’ tidy fielding and plus baserunning keep it competitive. The story wrinkle: Texas is still without Corey Seager and just lost Adolis García again, trimming the punch behind Corbin’s start; Houston confirms Valdez opposite him.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

Houston Astros

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 4.6 7.8% -5.6 14.8 50.0 $221.9M 29.0 33.0 2.17 — —
Z-score 0.10 -0.56 -0.99 0.75 1.07 0.66 0.28 1.51 -0.42 — —
tNERD 0.10 -0.56 -0.99 0.75 1.07 0.00 0.00 1.51 0.00 4.00 5.87

Texas Rangers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -44.5 8.6% 6.9 21.1 32.6 $219.7M 30.4 -26.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.69 0.09 1.02 1.06 0.18 0.63 1.71 -1.18 -0.74 — —
tNERD -0.69 0.09 1.02 1.06 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.66

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 76 11.5% 64.4% 94.3 mph 31 19.8s 7 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.51 0.45 0.21 0.20 0.62 1.01 — — — —
pNERD 3.01 0.23 0.10 0.20 0.00 -0.50 0.05 0.00 3.80 6.89

Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 100 10.9% 62.5% 91.5 mph 35 18.4s 10 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.07 0.17 -0.59 -1.07 1.66 -0.11 — — — —
pNERD 0.14 0.08 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.83

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Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

A rookie mystery box versus an opener’s sleight of hand makes this a quietly watchable tilt. Andrew Alvarez followed five scoreless, one-hit debut innings with a second-start assignment, while the Cubs are poised to use Drew Pomeranz as an opener again.

With a gNERD of 10.74, this sits a tick above both today’s average and the historic median, and that nudge comes almost entirely from the team side: Chicago’s robust tNERD (10.24) signals contact quality, baserunning, and gloves worth your screen time, while Washington’s meager 1.16 drags. Alvarez’s pNERD is 0 only because the sample is new; his debut featured four strikeouts and poise that belied the résumé, so the novelty factor is real. Pomeranz is roughly league-average by pNERD, has been used flexibly as an opener, and despite a shaky midweek cameo, he’s run solid run-prevention numbers this year. If Pete Crow-Armstrong’s day-to-day knee contusion keeps him out, the Cubs lose some highlight-reel defense, slightly dimming the sparkle.

Add in that Chicago has dominated the recent head-to-head (11 of 14), and you get a watch with real upside if Alvarez’s deception translates and the Cubs’ athleticism plays. Just don’t expect the Nats’ bats or bullpen to carry the entertainment load.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Washington Nationals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -45.0 7.7% -0.8 -33.7 -2.6 $115.9M 27.5 -23.0 2.00 — —
Z-score -0.70 -0.65 -0.21 -1.68 -1.62 -0.77 -1.25 -1.05 -0.75 — —
tNERD -0.70 -0.65 -0.21 -1.68 -1.62 0.77 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 1.16

Chicago Cubs

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 57.9 10.0% 9.9 29.1 26.5 $197.7M 30.6 -17.0 3.01 — —
Z-score 0.96 1.23 1.51 1.46 -0.13 0.33 1.91 -0.77 1.22 — —
tNERD 0.96 1.23 1.51 1.46 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 4.00 10.24

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Drew Pomeranz, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 97 10.3% 66.3% 92.7 mph 36 17.7s -39 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.25 -0.12 1.03 -0.52 1.92 -0.66 — — — —
pNERD 0.50 -0.06 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.08

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San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

Sonny Gray’s guile versus a newly re‑summoned Kai‑Wei Teng is the hook: a veteran run‑preventer against a wildcard with fresh strikeout life. The Cardinals just flipped the script late last game; the Giants’ arms now try to steady a suddenly wobbly back end.

At a gNERD 10.56, this lands a tick above the historical average and about mid‑pack for today; the shape comes from a strong pNERD for Gray (7.10) against middling team NERDs. Gray’s underlying run prevention remains stout (xFIP‑ 76 in the inputs) and he’s throwing strikes, but the recent game log screams variance: 7 ER vs. Oakland on Sept. 1, sandwiched around 7 strong vs. Pittsburgh. Teng carries a 0.00 pNERD only because of limited data; his return start brought a career‑high eight Ks and a win, and he doubled as the first Taiwanese starter to earn an MLB victory since 2018.

Team‑wise, St. Louis’ gloves (plus a solid pen) buoy tNERD, though they’re shorthanded without Nolan Arenado. San Francisco drags in baserunning but owns real relief talent—one that just coughed up a ninth‑inning lead the Giants could ill‑afford while chasing the final Wild Card.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -4.4 7.5% -8.5 5.9 37.6 $195.3M 29.3 -5.0 3.20 — —
Z-score -0.05 -0.81 -1.45 0.30 0.43 0.30 0.59 -0.23 1.59 — —
tNERD -0.05 -0.81 -1.45 0.30 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 4.00 4.02

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -24.1 7.9% -3.6 23.6 42.8 $135.7M 28.6 -22.0 2.17 — —
Z-score -0.37 -0.48 -0.66 1.19 0.70 -0.50 -0.13 -1.00 -0.43 — —
tNERD -0.37 -0.48 -0.66 1.19 0.70 0.50 0.13 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.00

Kai-Wei Teng, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 76 11.9% 66.7% 92.0 mph 35 20.3s 31 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.51 0.65 1.23 -0.84 1.66 1.40 — — — —
pNERD 3.01 0.32 0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.70 0.05 0.00 3.80 7.10

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

The bats are the hook: a first‑place Phillies club with a top‑tier tNERD meets a Marlins team still listing its starter as “undecided,” which usually means action on the bases and in the gaps. If you came for pitching wizardry, pNERD says temper expectations—Taijuan Walker’s watchability is more about a revamped cutter/slider mix than whiffs.

At 10.53, the gNERD sits around today’s average, but it rides Philadelphia’s 95th‑percentile-ish team component: real offense, plus baserunning and credible defense that translate to constant pressure and good TV; Miami’s side is closer to middle‑tier. Walker has stabilized by throwing the cutter nearly a third of the time and shelving the splitter that betrayed him in 2024—enough to be serviceable, not a strikeout show. The entertainment bump comes from the lineup: Kyle Schwarber parked at 49 homers, Trea Turner setting the table, and a division leader trying to lock down seeding, while Miami (65–76) may be without bright spot Kyle Stowers for one more day (oblique). Call it a solid second‑screen pick whose ceiling rises if the Marlins turn that TBD into an intriguing rookie or a creative bullpen game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 48.5 8.8% 8.1 4.4 30.4 $279.5M 29.5 22.0 2.92 — —
Z-score 0.80 0.25 1.22 0.23 0.06 1.43 0.79 1.01 1.03 — —
tNERD 0.80 0.25 1.22 0.23 0.06 0.00 0.00 1.01 1.03 4.00 8.60

Miami Marlins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -36.5 7.8% -1.5 6.4 7.2 $67.3M 26.8 -3.0 1.79 — —
Z-score -0.57 -0.56 -0.33 0.33 -1.12 -1.42 -1.96 -0.14 -1.17 — —
tNERD -0.57 -0.56 -0.33 0.33 -1.12 1.42 1.96 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.13

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 111 7.2% 62.7% 92.1 mph 32 16.6s -20 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.59 -1.61 -0.53 -0.80 0.88 -1.54 — — — —
pNERD -1.18 -0.81 -0.26 0.00 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.32

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Seattle Mariners @ Atlanta Braves, 9:05a

Summary

Spencer Strider’s reboot meets Seattle’s barrel-happy bats; if his four-seamer holds, it’s worth your eyeballs—if it leaks over the plate, the Mariners can make it loud. On the other side, Luis Castillo’s steadier FIP/xFIP baseline gives Seattle the firmer floor against a Braves lineup still missing Austin Riley (season-ending core surgery) even after adding Ha‑Seong Kim.

The gNERD (9.04) sits a notch below today’s average, but the pitcher storylines nudge this into “keep a tab open” territory. Strider’s four-seam has run value of −6 with just a 15% whiff rate at ~95.6 mph—great when missed, punishable when contacted—while Seattle brings above-average barrels and real power. Seattle’s lineup power is no mirage (200 HR to date), and the tNERD inputs back the bats more than the legs or gloves. Strider has been tinkering post-surgery, folding in more curve/change to complement the heater-slider mix; that variability is part of the draw.

Castillo’s 2025 line reads better under the hood (FIP ~3.14, xFIP ~4.10), even if his last start was clunky, and his pace/velo remain watchable. Atlanta’s bullpen depth is dinged (Jiménez, López out; Bummer sidelined), which could add late-inning weirdness if Strider exits early. Probables: Castillo vs. Strider, confirmed.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 56.7 9.2% -4.1 -22.6 23.0 $152.8M 28.2 10.0 2.35 — —
Z-score 0.94 0.58 -0.74 -1.12 -0.31 -0.27 -0.53 0.46 -0.07 — —
tNERD 0.94 0.58 -0.74 -1.12 -0.31 0.27 0.53 0.46 0.00 4.00 4.60

Atlanta Braves

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -10.5 8.7% -6.7 9.2 6.2 $216.2M 29.4 11.0 2.36 — —
Z-score -0.15 0.17 -1.16 0.47 -1.17 0.58 0.69 0.50 -0.05 — —
tNERD -0.15 0.17 -1.16 0.47 -1.17 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 4.00 2.66

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 100 10.8% 64.9% 95.0 mph 32 17.9s 2 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.07 0.12 0.42 0.52 0.88 -0.51 — — — —
pNERD 0.14 0.06 0.21 0.52 0.00 0.25 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.03

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 99 13.6% 61.3% 95.6 mph 26 18.5s 18 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.13 1.46 -1.12 0.79 -0.69 -0.03 — — — —
pNERD 0.26 0.73 -0.56 0.79 0.69 0.01 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.78

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Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, 10:40a

Summary

If you like veteran tricks meeting youthful pragmatism, this is your lane: 41-year-old Charlie Morton tries to curveball the AL Central contenders forward while Davis Martin plays keep-away with contact. The gNERD sits mid-pack, buoyed by Detroit’s lively tNERD and the “can the bullpen hold it?” drama.

Morton’s pNERD is ordinary, but Detroit traded for him after he rediscovered his curve and stabilized midseason; since late May he’s mostly kept runs in check even with modest whiffs, and he’s now a rotation piece for a club sitting on an 81–61 type record. Martin’s profile matches his pNERD: more command than bite, with a below-average xFIP- (~107) and FIP- (~114) that warn about contact quality if he falls behind. Detroit’s lineup adds the real watchability: Riley Greene mashing in-zone, Gleyber Torres posting star-level discipline and damage, and even a Báez reboot giving depth. The Tigers run well and barrel the ball, while Chicago brings a surprisingly competent bullpen but wobbly fielding. Meanwhile, Detroit’s late innings are thinned by injuries (Finnegan to the IL; Sewald still shelved), keeping the door cracked for a White Sox steal.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -68.1 8.0% -6.0 -32.7 38.0 $79.0M 27.5 -12.0 1.82 — —
Z-score -1.07 -0.40 -1.05 -1.63 0.45 -1.26 -1.25 -0.55 -1.11 — —
tNERD -1.07 -0.40 -1.05 -1.63 0.45 1.26 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.81

Detroit Tigers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 30.3 9.5% 5.8 5.0 8.2 $148.2M 27.6 -22.0 2.74 — —
Z-score 0.51 0.82 0.85 0.26 -1.07 -0.33 -1.14 -1.00 0.69 — —
tNERD 0.51 0.82 0.85 0.26 -1.07 0.33 1.14 0.00 0.69 4.00 7.54

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 109 9.7% 63.1% 93.7 mph 28 17.3s -11 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.47 -0.41 -0.35 -0.07 -0.17 -0.98 — — — —
pNERD -0.94 -0.21 -0.17 0.00 0.17 0.49 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.14

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 101 11.7% 63.6% 94.2 mph 41 18.5s 34 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.01 0.55 -0.11 0.16 3.23 -0.03 — — — —
pNERD 0.02 0.27 -0.06 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.00 3.80 4.26

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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

Dylan Cease’s 97 and top-10 whiff rate drops into the thin air, which is reason enough to peek. If San Diego grabs a lead, an All‑Star‑stuffed bullpen usually bolts it down.

The gNERD sits at 8.77, a shade below both the historical median and today’s average, and that tracks: Padres tNERD is propped up by an elite run‑prevention group and a watchable broadcast, while the Rockies’ tNERD sinks under league-worst, park‑adjusted offense. Coors still injects volatility, so even a lopsided matchup can get loud.

Cease remains the headliner: ~30% K rate, 16.7% SwStr, and 97.1 mph gas should play even at altitude, and his slider can rack up chases against a lineup that’s graded near the bottom by wRC+. If he’s around the zone, the strikeout ceiling is high.

Opposite him, Tanner Gordon is more contact-prone overall but just punched out nine over six in his last start, the kind of “could it happen again?” tease that nudges watchability at Coors.

Padres–Rockies with Cease vs. Gordon is confirmed, San Diego’s bullpen depth (Suárez, Morejón et al.) remains a strength even with injuries, and Colorado’s record underscores the mismatch. Tune for Ks, stay for the inevitable crooked inning.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 7.4 7.0% -1.0 -5.3 62.8 $209.3M 30.0 13.0 3.47 — —
Z-score 0.14 -1.22 -0.25 -0.26 1.72 0.49 1.30 0.59 2.12 — —
tNERD 0.14 -1.22 -0.25 -0.26 1.72 0.00 0.00 0.59 2.12 4.00 6.85

Colorado Rockies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -136.9 7.8% -8.8 -18.2 -7.0 $125.9M 27.9 24.0 1.73 — —
Z-score -2.18 -0.56 -1.50 -0.90 -1.85 -0.63 -0.84 1.10 -1.29 — —
tNERD -2.18 -0.56 -1.50 -0.90 -1.85 0.63 0.84 1.10 0.00 4.00 -0.43

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 86 15.8% 63.2% 97.0 mph 29 19.8s 32 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.91 2.52 -0.29 1.43 0.10 1.01 — — — —
pNERD 1.81 1.26 -0.15 1.43 0.00 -0.50 0.05 0.00 3.80 7.71

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 108 7.6% 67.4% 92.2 mph 27 18.8s 18 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.41 -1.42 1.51 -0.75 -0.43 0.21 — — — —
pNERD -0.82 -0.71 0.75 0.00 0.43 -0.11 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.40

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Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

A rookie mystery box vs. a familiar name with fewer bat-missing tricks: this one’s watchable mostly for novelty and contrast. Mitch Farris makes only his second MLB start after a tidy debut win, while Oakland’s appeal leans more to its lineup and youth than to a high‑punchout starter.

Farris earned that debut win with five one‑run innings and rides up from Double‑A, where the strikeouts were there even if the walks lurked; that unknown adds some live‑look value against an A’s offense that ranks top‑five in AVG/OBP/SLG and can pressure a shaky Angels defense and bullpen. If it’s Luis Severino for Oakland as listed here, his velocity still plays but the pNERD’s modest because the whiffs and xFIP trend ordinary—meaning fewer fireworks from him, more from the bats around him. Meanwhile, Jo Adell has punished the A’s this season, so Farris doesn’t get a soft landing.

Layer on two extra hooks: Jacob Wilson’s batting‑title chase gives every A’s plate appearance some consequence, and the Angels just shuffled pieces (including Farris) onto the roster. Net‑net, a mid‑pack gNERD fits: the A’s solid tNERD and big “Luck” bump suggest entertainment, while the Angels’ poor run prevention keeps volatility high even if the pitching matchup isn’t a pure strikeout show.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Athletics

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 39.5 8.2% 1.4 -24.9 18.8 $77.1M 27.6 41.0 1.27 — —
Z-score 0.66 -0.24 0.14 -1.24 -0.53 -1.29 -1.14 1.87 -2.19 — —
tNERD 0.66 -0.24 0.14 -1.24 -0.53 1.29 1.14 1.87 0.00 4.00 7.10

Los Angeles Angels

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -44.3 10.6% 0.0 -44.1 -3.6 $203.8M 29.2 -13.0 2.59 — —
Z-score -0.69 1.72 -0.09 -2.20 -1.67 0.41 0.49 -0.59 0.40 — —
tNERD -0.69 1.72 -0.09 -2.20 -1.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 4.00 1.47

Luis Severino, Athletics

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 109 7.0% 63.0% 95.9 mph 31 17.5s 1 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.47 -1.71 -0.38 0.93 0.62 -0.82 — — — —
pNERD -0.94 -0.85 -0.19 0.93 0.00 0.41 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.21

Mitch Farris, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

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Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

A modest gNERD masks a potentially tense watch: Kansas City’s playoff push and sturdy bullpen meet Minnesota’s late-inning strength, with tempo-friendly Bailey Ober trying to dodge a lineup that’s stung him before. Bobby Witt Jr.’s back spasms loom over the entertainment value; if he’s out, the Royals lose some sizzle.

With a gNERD of 7.81 near the low end of today’s slate, this leans “secondary screen,” but there’s intrigue in the contrasts. The pitchers’ pNERDs are below today’s average (Ober 3.33, Michael Lorenzen 3.36), and their skill indicators say “fine, not flashy” (xFIP-: Ober 116, Lorenzen 102), yet Ober’s brisk pace (17.5s) should keep things moving. Minnesota’s edge is the relief corps (reflected in positive bullpen components), while Kansas City brings plus gloves and another solid pen to shorten the game. Recent threads help: the Royals are within a game of a Wild Card and have taken a tight season series, and they’ve punished Ober in two earlier meetings (.486 BA in 6.1 IP), though he’s coming off a one-hit, six-inning gem. Lorenzen’s recent form is steady (6 IP, 2 ER last time out). If Witt plays, bump this up a notch; if not, expect a bullpen coin flip more than a strikeout showcase.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -22.8 8.7% -4.2 -13.6 47.9 $145.1M 28.8 15.0 2.30 — —
Z-score -0.34 0.17 -0.76 -0.67 0.96 -0.37 0.08 0.69 -0.17 — —
tNERD -0.34 0.17 -0.76 -0.67 0.96 0.37 0.00 0.69 0.00 4.00 4.41

Kansas City Royals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -59.8 7.6% -5.0 11.1 40.2 $130.0M 28.8 30.0 2.11 — —
Z-score -0.94 -0.73 -0.89 0.56 0.57 -0.58 0.08 1.37 -0.54 — —
tNERD -0.94 -0.73 -0.89 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.00 1.37 0.00 4.00 4.52

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 116 11.3% 67.0% 90.4 mph 29 17.5s 10 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.89 0.36 1.34 -1.57 0.10 -0.82 — — — —
pNERD -1.78 0.18 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.33

Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 102 10.1% 63.6% 93.7 mph 33 19.1s 5 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.05 -0.22 -0.12 -0.07 1.14 0.45 — — — —
pNERD -0.10 -0.11 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.36

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Legend vs. contact manager: Clayton Kershaw makes his first Camden Yards start, while Tomoyuki Sugano tries to thread needles against a Dodgers lineup that punishes anything square. It’s the lowest gNERD on today’s slate, but this series has gone weird enough—back‑to‑back Baltimore walk‑offs after a Yamamoto near no‑no—that curiosity is warranted.

The NERD split says watch the bats more than the arms: Dodgers carry the stronger tNERD (elite barrels, deep pen) against an Orioles club dragged down by defense and relief work. On the mound, pNERD is modest: Kershaw’s current line (93.1 IP, 61 K, 25 BB) suggests more craft than whiff, which fits his near‑average underlying indicators; it’s still Kershaw, so precision can play. Sugano brings volume (140+ IP) but limited bat‑missing (95 K) and peripherals that have flashed warning lights, a risky profile versus L.A.’s thump.

Context helps: the Dodgers are contending and arrive wobbling after late‑inning chaos, while Baltimore’s been in spoiler mode; Kershaw‑Sugano is the confirmed matchup. If you’re triaging screens, this isn’t top billing by gNERD, but it has sneaky appeal: a Hall‑bound lefty’s first crack at this park, a pitch‑to‑contact riddle against a barrel factory, and the possibility that the series’ ninth‑inning oddities aren’t done yet.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 73.5 9.9% -1.4 -7.2 48.9 $341.0M 29.6 -2.0 2.45 — —
Z-score 1.21 1.15 -0.31 -0.35 1.01 2.26 0.89 -0.09 0.12 — —
tNERD 1.21 1.15 -0.31 -0.35 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 4.00 6.83

Baltimore Orioles

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -13.0 9.1% -2.0 -16.0 14.7 $167.6M 29.2 -10.0 2.82 — —
Z-score -0.19 0.50 -0.41 -0.79 -0.74 -0.07 0.49 -0.45 0.85 — —
tNERD -0.19 0.50 -0.41 -0.79 -0.74 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.85 4.00 3.29

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 103 9.6% 63.1% 89.0 mph 37 17.3s -25 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.11 -0.46 -0.37 -2.21 2.19 -0.98 — — — —
pNERD -0.22 -0.23 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.66

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 112 7.9% 62.9% 92.8 mph 35 19.1s -4 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.65 -1.28 -0.41 -0.48 1.66 0.45 — — — —
pNERD -1.30 -0.64 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.43

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