MLB: What to watch on September 8, 2025

• 08 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Rookie vs. reputation is the hook: Nolan McLean’s high-octane start (11.04 pNERD, xFIP- 67) meets Aaron Nola’s name brand while he’s still searching for form post-IL. With the Mets already 7–2 against Philly and having just blanked them behind McLean, this sits atop today’s gNERD slate and comfortably in the historic high end.

McLean supplies pace and punch (mid‑90s velocity, quick tempo), and he literally just mowed down these Phillies for eight scoreless in a sweep, which heightens the novelty factor for a fourth straight look. The Mets’ bats back it with legitimately entertaining traits: plus barrel rate and run creation, and a bullpen that’s been a feature, not a bug, in their watchability profile. On the other side, Nola’s skill indicators are closer to average (xFIP- 93) and the recent results since returning haven’t soothed nerves—6 ER at Milwaukee on 9/3 and 4 ER vs. Atlanta on 8/28 after a rocky IL return on 8/17.

One more storyline tilts the camera: Trea Turner left the last game with a right hamstring strain and is headed for an MRI, so his status clouds Philly’s offense even if their baserunning remains a draw. If you like rising-stuff vs. established-craft with stakes, queue this one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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Boston Red Sox @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

Strikeout royalty versus electric rookie heat is a fine reason to tune in: gNERD 17.55 puts this near the top of today’s slate and well above the historic 95th percentile. Garrett Crochet’s ace-level indicators (xFIP- 64, premium velocity, strike-throwing) meet 22-year-old Luis Morales’ triple-digit-adjacent fastball and prospect shine, a contrast that rarely shares a mound. Boston’s side of the NERD ledger is loaded—elite baserunning, gloves, and a strong bullpen—while Sacramento’s kids-and-power offense comes with shakier defense and relief help. Crochet is not just stuff; as of last week he led MLB in both innings and strikeouts, even if a homer-happy hiccup vs. Cleveland briefly scuffed the line, and Boston just extended him like the ace he’s been. Morales brings upper-90s life and has impressed since his debut, including a career-high eight Ks in St. Louis; the watch is whether his command holds against a disciplined lineup now missing IL-bound rookie sparkplug Roman Anthony. Also: you’re watching the A’s in their temporary Sacramento home, which is its own curiosity.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

Athletics

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Luis Morales, Athletics

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Ace-vs-newcomer is the hook: Logan Webb’s grounder machine (and newfound whiffs) meets late-summer stretch-out Nabil Crismatt, a contrast that could be tidy and tense. With a gNERD of 11.87—comfortably above today’s average—and the Giants’ run prevention backing Webb, this is a worthy click. Webb’s 2025 looks like an upgrade: more strikeouts layered onto his sinker/sweeper, plus top-tier contact control, the profile our pNERD loves (xFIP- 67) and recent analysis backs. The Giants also stabilize late, even after losing All-Star Randy Rodríguez; Ryan Walker has slid back to the ninth, keeping the bullpen viable. Arizona counters with bats and baserunning (tNERD positives), and Corbin Carroll is cooking—30 homers with speed—though losing Lourdes Gurriel Jr. dings the depth. Crismatt is the curiosity: low velo, lots of strikes, working fast, and recently gave Arizona 6.1 solid frames; still, his pNERD is only middling versus Webb’s. Given the matchup, expect San Francisco’s elite starter plus sturdier pen to control the script, but Carroll-and-friends inject just enough chaos to keep it watchable, especially with both clubs hovering in the Wild Card scrum.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

Nabil Crismatt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

A command-artist vs. a pace merchant, with the Cubs’ glove-and-legs show doing most of the selling: that’s this rematch in a nutshell. Shota Imanaga brings a six-start quality-start streak into a meeting with Bryce Elder, whose recent “boom-or-bust” track makes the early innings feel coin-flippy rather than flamethrower-choreographed.

With a gNERD of 10.43 (near the middle of today’s slate), the draw skews team-side: the Cubs’ top-tier tNERD (10.16) is powered by barrels, elite baserunning (+1.52) and plus defense (+1.44), while Atlanta’s low tNERD (2.53) and shaky run-prevention out of the pen keep volatility on the table. Imanaga’s pNERD is modest (3.62) because the peripherals are closer to average (xFIP- 110), but he just beat Atlanta with 6 innings of 3-run ball; Elder counters with a better xFIP- (101) and quick tempo, and he’s fresh off 7 frames with one unearned run vs. these same Cubs.

Sprinkle in a storyline—Atlanta’s new shortstop Ha-Seong Kim changing the infield calculus—and a question mark: Chicago’s ninth inning after Daniel Palencia’s shoulder scare. Net: watchable for execution, defense, and baserunning more than strikeout theater.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Atlanta Braves

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

A glove-and-bullpen special: Bergert’s tidy rookie run meets Cecconi’s Guardians makeover, with both lineups unlikely to bludgeon you off the couch. It’s a mid‑tier gNERD (9.77), but the watchability comes from slick defense, good relief corps, and a young‑arms lab test, not fireworks.

The matchup is set: Ryan Bergert for K.C. and Slade Cecconi for Cleveland. Bergert has looked the part since the trade—five straight 5+ IP, ≤2 ER outings—but the underlying run estimators say “very good, not unhittable” (as starter: FIP 4.13, xFIP 4.40; 12.9% K‑BB%). That pairs neatly with a Guardians offense that’s been light this year by advanced metrics, making run prevention the feature attraction. On the other side, Cleveland’s Cecconi is a strike‑thrower revamped with a sinker/cutter to escape the dead‑zone heater; progress has been real, but second‑time‑through penalties and long‑ball risk still lurk. The NERD components agree: average pitcher NERD, better team NERDs buoyed by gloves and bullpens (both clubs grade well there), and K.C.’s sizable positive “Luck” suggests they’ve under-shot their true talent. If you like crisp innings, rangy outfielders, and a likely bullpen chess match more than a slugfest, this is a worthy slot in the queue.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians

Ryan Bergert, Kansas City Royals

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Bryan Woo is the hook here: a high-strike, mid‑90s arm with a sub‑1.00 WHIP who’s been Seattle’s steadiest starter, even if his last two were shorter stints. Opposite him is contact‑first Miles Mikolas, lately surviving on guile and weak contact rather than whiffs.

On watchability, the gNERD (9.68) sits just below both the historical median (10.10) and today’s average (10.84), but Woo’s top‑tier pNERD (7.95) nudges this game up the queue. Seattle’s lineup brings real thump (200 HR, top‑three) that pairs cleanly with its above‑average barrel rate, a tricky matchup for Mikolas’ low‑whiff profile; meanwhile St. Louis counters with elite gloves and a sturdy bullpen if it stays close. Woo’s skill indicators match the model’s love: strong run prevention all year and recent efficiency, even with two straight five‑inning caps; if his strikes and fastball carry show up, he can tilt the whole thing early. Mikolas has stabilized results-wise (two straight 1‑ER turns), but his underlying xFIP‑ remains rough, which is why the pNERD is skeptical. Net: a mid‑card gNERD with one must‑see arm, Mariners power vs. Cardinals leather, and just enough contrast to reward a channel stop.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Seattle Mariners

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Milwaukee’s chaos offense meets a patched‑together Texas lineup, so the fun here is likely on the bases and in the gloves more than on the mound. Jacob Latz’s starter audition versus contact‑leaning José Quintana makes this a tactics-and-traffic kind of watch, not an ace-off.

The gNERD (9.52) sits a bit below today’s average because the pNERD side is soft, but the team components pull it up: Milwaukee’s high tNERD (9.88) reflects elite run creation via speed and defense. The Brewers’ identity is pressure—see April’s nine‑steal day—and that plays against a Ranger club thinned by injuries. Latz has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his five starts (rarely working past five), and Bochy’s been open about him forcing the rotation issue; at home, his estimators trend mid‑4s, so traffic is expected. Quintana’s surface run prevention has outpaced the estimators (roughly 4.8 FIP/xFIP), though he did handle Philly over 6.1 frames last time out.

Texas is likely without marquee bats (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García), leaving Langford/Jung/Burger to scrap against a first‑place Milwaukee that just rolled in. If William Contreras is back catching, cue even more Brewers run-game shenanigans.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Texas Rangers

Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers

Jacob Latz, Texas Rangers

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Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

A command performance from Nick Lodolo against MLB’s stingiest bullpen makes this one for viewers who like strike-throwing and late-inning leverage. The swing factor is Yu Darvish: if he gives San Diego more than a short bridge, this rises; if not, the relievers take over early and slam doors.

The gNERD sits at 9.21—middling relative to today’s slate—but the parts are interesting: Lodolo’s above-average pNERD (6.08) fits a profile of real skill, with a ~3.7 xFIP, low walk rate (~1.7 BB/9), and bat-missing curves that have stabilized Cincinnati’s rotation. Darvish’s pNERD (2.67) mirrors his post-IL reality: a brilliant 7-inning shutout vs. the Mets followed by mostly 4–6 inning, labor-intensive starts, including 4 earned over 4 against Baltimore last time out.

Team-wise, the watchability tilt is Padres: a top-tier bullpen even after losing All-Star setup man Jason Adam, and a lineup missing Xander Bogaerts but still dangerous enough to create late drama. Cincinnati’s tNERD drags because the bats have gone quiet; since June 24 the Reds own the worst ISO in MLB, so runs may need to be manufactured around Lodolo’s start. In short: modest gNERD, appealing component parts—tune in for Lodolo’s precision and the Padres’ bullpen theater.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

San Diego Padres

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

This is a mid-card watch with an ace-upside wrinkle: Cade Cavalli’s live fastball and recent form give the game more juice than the records suggest. If it’s Janson Junk opposite him, expect pace and strikes more than whiffs, which usually means balls in play and decision points for managers. Cavalli’s 7.11 pNERD carries the pitching side, and he’s returned from the long TJ detour throwing upper-90s with five usable pitches and, notably, held these Marlins to two runs over five innings in his last turn; that’s the hook if you’re scouting stuff and growth rather than tidy ERAs. The matchup quality otherwise is modest: gNERD 9.05 sits below today’s slate average, dragged by Washington’s 1.09 tNERD (shaky defense, thin bullpen), while Miami’s 5.20 tNERD and younger roster nudge the entertainment back toward “watchable.” On the Miami side, Junk’s profile (near‑average run estimators, strike‑throwing) has produced competent outings—including 7.0 IP, 6 K at Boston—though he’s been on the IL and tentatively lines up to return. Layer in a Marlins staff stretched by injuries (Braxton Garrett out for the year, others sidelined), and late‑inning weirdness is firmly on the table.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Washington Nationals (2.00 rating)

Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

If Shohei Ohtani indeed takes the ball, this becomes a curiosity play: a two-way megastar likely returning to the mound opposite a high-octane but volatile rookie. If the Dodgers keep it “TBD,” gNERD 7.83 slots as a mid-tier watch buoyed more by L.A.’s bats and pen than by the matchup on the hill.

The NERD math says Dodgers tNERD 6.92 props up a game dragged down by Colorado’s -0.53 and an average pNERD of 4.64; it’s below today’s slate average (10.84), so this isn’t the headline act. For intrigue, it’s Chase Dollander: 97–99 with carry and a Warthen-ish slider when he feels it, but command wobbles have defined the year, which is why his underlying run prevention lags (xFIP-/walk issues). There are flashes—e.g., a recent six-inning, seven-K one-run turn—but the variance is real. If it is Ohtani, add the obvious: the Dodgers already slug like a contender (205 HR, .436 SLG), and that lineup against a staff carrying a 6.01 ERA tilts the entertainment toward blue early and often.

Net: watch for Dollander’s stuff-versus-zone tightrope and, potentially, Ohtani’s latest two-way chapter; otherwise, it’s a solid background game powered by Dodgers depth rather than pure pitcher theater.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

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Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

With the day’s lowest gNERD, this profiles as a background game—unless a prospect peek and some chaos‑ball appeal to you. Still, 21‑year‑old Caden Dana’s early audition and Jo Adell’s power give it a pulse. Dana has just 11 big‑league innings, flashing a slider‑first mix that prospect folks have long liked, but with control and fastball questions that can surface against MLB bats (10 K, 6 BB, 2 HR so far; plus-plus slider per reports). Simeon Woods Richardson counters with more certainty than sizzle—78 strikeouts and 40 walks in 89.1 innings—and he did hold these Angels to one run with seven punchouts in April before a brief IL stint for illness and a late‑August return. If offense shows, it likely comes from L.A.’s bat speed and barrels—Adell just drove in all four runs in a recent win and sits in the mid‑30s for homers—even as the Angels are down Nolan Schanuel and Jorge Soler. Both defenses grade near the league’s basement, especially the Angels, so expect extra outs to become extra bases. Given today’s NERD context (bottom‑quartile pNERD and tNERD), you’re watching for the novelty of Dana versus a contact‑skewed SWR and the possibility that leaky gloves turn routine into weird.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Los Angeles Angels

Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins

Caden Dana, Los Angeles Angels

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