Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on September 10, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
16.7 3:45p New York Mets 12.2 Philadelphia Phillies 8.8 Clay Holmes 2.9 Cristopher Sánchez 9.5
14.4 4:40p Tampa Bay Rays 6.8 Chicago White Sox 2.9 Griffin Jax 14.0 TBD No data
13.3 4:05p Detroit Tigers 7.6 New York Yankees 8.4 Jack Flaherty 5.9 Carlos Rodón 4.7
13.0 4:15p Chicago Cubs 10.1 Atlanta Braves 2.5 TBD No data Chris Sale 8.4
12.8 12:35p Boston Red Sox 8.8 Athletics 6.9 Payton Tolle No data Mason Barnett No data
12.7 11:35a Milwaukee Brewers 9.7 Texas Rangers 5.8 Freddy Peralta 4.8 Merrill Kelly 5.2
11.7 6:40p St. Louis Cardinals 4.8 Seattle Mariners 4.8 Michael McGreevy 3.6 Logan Gilbert 10.2
11.7 3:35p Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7 Baltimore Orioles 3.4 Paul Skenes 11.3 Tyler Wells No data
10.2 4:07p Houston Astros 5.7 Toronto Blue Jays 8.5 Jason Alexander 3.6 José Berríos 2.6
9.9 5:40p Cincinnati Reds 2.6 San Diego Padres 7.1 Andrew Abbott 4.8 Nick Pivetta 5.3
9.8 1:07p Minnesota Twins 4.5 Los Angeles Angels 1.5 Taj Bradley 5.5 José Soriano 8.2
9.3 3:40p Kansas City Royals 4.6 Cleveland Guardians 6.0 Jonathan Bowlan No data Logan Allen 3.0
8.5 7:10p Colorado Rockies -0.7 Los Angeles Dodgers 6.9 Kyle Freeland 4.1 Blake Snell 6.6
7.6 12:45p Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8 San Francisco Giants 4.1 Eduardo Rodriguez 2.5 Carson Seymour 3.9
7.0 3:40p Washington Nationals 1.1 Miami Marlins 5.1 Jake Irvin 1.5 Eury Pérez 6.3

Notes:

Detail

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Top watchability alert: a gNERD 16.66 pits the Mets’ bat-mashing, high-tNERD offense against Cristopher Sánchez’s ace-level craft, while New York’s great experiment—Clay Holmes, starter—tries to hold serve. If you enjoy elite contact quality squaring off with an elite out pitch, clear a screen.

Sánchez brings a pNERD 9.47 with a sub-70 xFIP- and one of baseball’s nastiest changeups, a pitch that’s drawn Cy talk and routinely shreds bats; he’s been rolling of late, too. Holmes vs. Sánchez is indeed the matchup, and it’s a study in contrasts: the Phillies lefty yields few barrels, while Holmes’ conversion from Yankees closer to Mets starter—he was even tabbed as Opening Day starter—has settled into “adequate,” but with recent red flags (walks/homers up, ~5.2 FIP over a six-start slice).

The team-side engine drives the gNERD: Mets tNERD 12.23 (barrels, offense, bullpen depth) versus Phillies 8.76 (plus baserunning), and Philly’s lineup is humming—Kyle Schwarber just reached 50 homers. Add in Mets rotation attrition (e.g., Frankie Montas headed for Tommy John), and there’s plenty of intrigue without invoking “momentum.”

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 87.5 10.5% 6.4 1.8 47.0 $332.0M 29.7 33.0 3.32 — —
Z-score 1.43 1.60 0.95 0.09 0.84 2.14 1.00 1.50 1.82 — —
tNERD 1.43 1.60 0.95 0.09 0.84 0.00 0.00 1.50 1.82 4.00 12.23

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 48.7 8.8% 8.1 6.4 30.0 $279.5M 29.5 25.0 2.92 — —
Z-score 0.81 0.23 1.22 0.32 0.03 1.43 0.79 1.13 1.03 — —
tNERD 0.81 0.23 1.22 0.32 0.03 0.00 0.00 1.13 1.03 4.00 8.76

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 101 8.8% 62.5% 93.7 mph 32 19.1s -13 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.01 -0.86 -0.61 -0.07 0.89 0.46 — — — —
pNERD 0.02 -0.43 -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.86

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 69 13.5% 66.4% 95.4 mph 28 19.3s -9 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.93 1.41 1.10 0.70 -0.16 0.62 — — — —
pNERD 3.86 0.71 0.55 0.70 0.16 -0.31 0.00 0.00 3.80 9.47

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

A top-tier gNERD and Tampa Bay’s playoff urgency make this one highly watchable: an elite pNERD arm in Griffin Jax meets an injury-thinned White Sox lineup, with the Rays’ speed and bullpen poised to matter late. Tampa Bay is hovering four games back in the AL wild-card chase, adding real stakes to every lever Kevin Cash can pull.

The model loves Jax (pNERD 14.04), and for good reason: his pitch mix has produced top-10 strikeout and whiff rates among relievers, underpinned by an xFIP- around 49 and upper-90s heat; whether he opens or slams the door, that’s bat-missing you can plan evening around. Tampa Bay’s tNERD (6.79) leans on elite baserunning and a strong bullpen, exactly the ingredients that turn close games fun. Chicago’s tNERD (2.94) drags with poor defense and baserunning, and the lineup still lacks Luis Robert Jr. (hamstring, IL), though youngsters like Colson Montgomery have flashed. Tuesday’s tight 5-4 Rays win — decided by a late Tristan Gray homer — previewed the script: Sox can hang, but Tampa’s depth (and dingers) tilt the endgame. Historically, a 14.38 gNERD sits near the 95th percentile and is among today’s best, so if you’re choosing one, pick the one with the nasty sweeper and the track shoes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -17.5 7.7% 11.1 -24.2 44.2 $89.9M 27.4 -20.0 2.27 — —
Z-score -0.26 -0.66 1.71 -1.17 0.71 -1.12 -1.35 -0.91 -0.23 — —
tNERD -0.26 -0.66 1.71 -1.17 0.71 1.12 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.79

Chicago White Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -64.7 8.0% -6.1 -32.9 40.2 $79.0M 27.5 -9.0 1.82 — —
Z-score -1.02 -0.42 -1.06 -1.59 0.52 -1.26 -1.25 -0.41 -1.11 — —
tNERD -1.02 -0.42 -1.06 -1.59 0.52 1.26 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.94

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 49 18.3% 67.9% 96.8 mph 30 18.9s 67 0.0% — —
Z-score -3.13 3.73 1.74 1.34 0.36 0.30 — — — —
pNERD 6.25 1.87 0.87 1.34 0.00 -0.15 0.05 0.00 3.80 14.04

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Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Playoff-tinged power vs. pluck: the Yankees’ barrel-happy lineup meets Detroit’s young, speedy bunch, a day after the Tigers detonated a nine-run inning in the Bronx. With a gNERD of 13.29 that sits near the top of today’s slate, this grades as must-sample television even without a true ace-on-ace tilt.

Jack Flaherty’s mid-pack pNERD captures the experience: bat-missing stuff but volatility that shows up most against lefties; his 2025 splits feature a higher wOBA allowed to LHB than RHB, the type of profile New York can stress. Keep an eye on how quickly A.J. Hinch pulls him the third time through. Carlos Rodón, meanwhile, rolls in on a five-start win streak and has smothered bats at Yankee Stadium, including a sub-.240 wOBA allowed at home and to lefties. That’s the kind of underlying dominance that plays even when the K’s aren’t spiking.

Narrative fuel isn’t lacking: Aaron Judge returned from an elbow scare and promptly leapfrogged Yogi Berra on the franchise homer list, while ex-Yankee Gleyber Torres is now drawing ovations in road gray. Also, Detroit just widened its cushion atop the AL Central as New York jockeys for position.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 27.8 9.6% 5.7 5.2 7.8 $148.2M 27.6 -23.0 2.74 — —
Z-score 0.47 0.87 0.84 0.26 -1.03 -0.33 -1.14 -1.05 0.69 — —
tNERD 0.47 0.87 0.84 0.26 -1.03 0.33 1.14 0.00 0.69 4.00 7.57

New York Yankees

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 109.0 11.7% -1.2 1.0 27.8 $290.9M 29.1 8.0 2.08 — —
Z-score 1.78 2.57 -0.27 0.05 -0.08 1.58 0.38 0.36 -0.61 — —
tNERD 1.78 2.57 -0.27 0.05 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 4.00 8.41

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 88 11.7% 64.1% 92.8 mph 29 18.2s 30 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.79 0.54 0.07 -0.48 0.10 -0.26 — — — —
pNERD 1.58 0.27 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.87

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 94 12.3% 62.1% 93.9 mph 32 18.5s -17 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.43 0.83 -0.78 0.02 0.89 -0.02 — — — —
pNERD 0.86 0.42 -0.39 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.72

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Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Chris Sale’s return-from-IL whiff machine meets the Cubs’ brand of joyful disorder—speed, defense, and loud contact—which is a pretty good way to spend a game window. At gNERD 13.0, this sits above today’s average and around the historic upper quartile, driven by Sale’s strong pNERD (8.41) and a Cubs tNERD (10.14) that screams entertainment.

Sale just came back from a rib fracture and struck out nine over six crisp innings in his activation start, a reminder that his bat-missing slider/change mix still plays; Atlanta’s rotation attrition only sharpens the spotlight on him. Chicago’s listed starter was TBD, but indications had rookie Cade Horton lining up opposite Sale; Horton recently muzzled Atlanta for 6⅓ innings of one-run ball, adding intrigue to the rematch angle. The watchability tilt favors the Cubs’ style: elite defense and plus baserunning feed long, eventful innings, while Atlanta’s weaker baserunning and bullpen dampen their tNERD. Meanwhile, Chicago is missing All-Star Kyle Tucker (calf), a notable bat subtracted from the card. If Sale’s xFIP- (75 in the inputs) holds and Horton again suppresses hard contact, you get a high-strikeout, low-walk chess match spiced by Cubs chaos on the basepaths—enough substance to justify its top-tier gNERD.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 55.2 10.0% 10.4 29.9 24.5 $197.7M 30.6 -15.0 3.01 — —
Z-score 0.91 1.19 1.59 1.46 -0.23 0.33 1.91 -0.69 1.22 — —
tNERD 0.91 1.19 1.59 1.46 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 4.00 10.14

Atlanta Braves

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -12.6 8.8% -7.2 7.0 4.4 $216.2M 29.4 11.0 2.36 — —
Z-score -0.18 0.23 -1.24 0.35 -1.19 0.58 0.69 0.50 -0.05 — —
tNERD -0.18 0.23 -1.24 0.35 -1.19 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 4.00 2.45

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 75 13.7% 67.1% 94.9 mph 36 19.7s -19 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.57 1.51 1.43 0.48 1.93 0.94 — — — —
pNERD 3.14 0.76 0.71 0.48 0.00 -0.47 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.41

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Boston Red Sox @ Athletics, 12:35p

Summary

Rookie volatility alert: two power-armed unknowns could make this sneakily fun. Our model tags it as one of the day’s better watches (gNERD 12.82), with Boston’s run prevention giving it a sturdy floor.

Payton Tolle brings real bat-missing juice—he debuted with 8 Ks and mid-to-upper‑90s heat, touching 98+, and profiles as a fastball-first lefty still sharpening the secondaries. Across the field, Mason Barnett is a recent call-up who showed both whiffs and wildness: a rough debut, then his first win with 8 strikeouts but 5 walks, the kind of line that keeps the remote in your hand. Current listings point to Tolle vs. Barnett, which adds the prospect-theater vibe this score thrives on. Boston’s strong defense and bullpen (big drivers of its top‑tier tNERD) should steady the chaos, while Oakland’s youth-and-luck cocktail plus a shaky glove/bullpen mix can turn innings into adventures. Meanwhile, the A’s were blanked in the first two games—including an 11‑K debut from Connelly Early—so any early traffic for Barnett will feel magnified. If you’re into big fastballs, uncertain command, and contrasting team textures, this one deserves a window.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Boston Red Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 16.6 9.4% 6.3 26.0 58.3 $191.8M 28.7 -9.0 2.47 — —
Z-score 0.29 0.71 0.93 1.27 1.38 0.25 -0.02 -0.41 0.16 — —
tNERD 0.29 0.71 0.93 1.27 1.38 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.16 4.00 8.77

Athletics

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 33.1 8.3% 0.1 -23.4 17.7 $77.1M 27.6 40.0 1.27 — —
Z-score 0.56 -0.18 -0.06 -1.13 -0.56 -1.29 -1.14 1.81 -2.19 — —
tNERD 0.56 -0.18 -0.06 -1.13 -0.56 1.29 1.14 1.81 0.00 4.00 6.87

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

Mason Barnett, Athletics

No detailed stats available

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

A top-third gNERD (12.73) with playoff stakes and contrasting strengths: Milwaukee’s elite run prevention versus Texas’ patched‑together but pesky lineup. Peralta–Kelly isn’t a headline duel, yet both grade as better‑than‑average by xFIP (Peralta 96-, Kelly 92-), setting up a crisp, bullpen-tilting watch.

Milwaukee’s tNERD (9.68) does the heavy lifting: plus baserunning and defense with a deep pen, the sort of mix that turns close games into chess matches rather than slugfests. Texas lags offensively by the model but defends well and runs enough to keep the heartbeat up. That matters for a Rangers club still chasing the division while missing star power: Corey Seager remains out after an Aug. 28 appendectomy, with Adolis García also sidelined, and other key arms banged up.

As for the vibes: recent games have leaned tight and tactical, and Texas has squeezed wins with timely hits and heavy bullpen involvement, which could nudge leverage higher again if reliever availability is stretched. Listed probables have been Peralta vs. Merrill Kelly, and that pairing fits the watchability math: mid-tier pNERDs, cleaner run‑prevention profiles, and late‑inning drama favored by Milwaukee’s bullpen edge.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 51.4 6.4% 13.4 19.9 50.2 $112.2M 27.6 -33.0 2.66 — —
Z-score 0.85 -1.71 2.08 0.97 0.99 -0.82 -1.14 -1.50 0.53 — —
tNERD 0.85 -1.71 2.08 0.97 0.99 0.82 1.14 0.00 0.53 4.00 9.68

Texas Rangers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -46.0 8.6% 7.2 23.9 33.7 $219.7M 30.4 -29.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.72 0.06 1.08 1.16 0.21 0.63 1.71 -1.32 -0.74 — —
tNERD -0.72 0.06 1.08 1.16 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.80

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 96 12.6% 61.0% 94.9 mph 29 18.5s -37 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.31 0.98 -1.25 0.48 0.10 -0.02 — — — —
pNERD 0.62 0.49 -0.62 0.48 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.77

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 92 10.7% 65.1% 92.0 mph 36 18.5s -17 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.55 0.06 0.54 -0.85 1.93 -0.02 — — — —
pNERD 1.10 0.03 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.21

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Logan Gilbert’s ace stuff plus a playoff-chasing, power-forward Seattle lineup make this the sort of watch that can swing on one splitter or one swing. With a gNERD of 11.73 sitting above today’s average and near the historic 75th percentile, the frontline arm lifts the room. Gilbert (pNERD 10.19) brings elite run prevention (xFIP- 63) and bat-missing, leaning on a revamped splitter that powered his 2024 leap and remains intact post–elbow IL stint. Seattle backs him with actual thump—Cal Raleigh past 50 homers and the club over 200 team HR—and they’ve stacked wins to stay tight in the AL West/WC picture, with Andrés Muñoz closing. Across the aisle, Michael McGreevy (pNERD 3.62) is more feel than fire—pitch-to-contact, grounders—which makes St. Louis’s plus gloves and sturdy pen central to the plot, and the lineup may still be missing Nolan Arenado. If Seattle scores early, Gilbert’s strike-throwing and depth can make this brisk; if McGreevy keeps the ball on the ground and the Cardinals catch it, you’re signing up for leverage over strikeout art.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -26.9 7.9% -4.4 23.8 45.2 $135.7M 28.6 -24.0 2.17 — —
Z-score -0.41 -0.50 -0.79 1.16 0.75 -0.50 -0.13 -1.10 -0.43 — —
tNERD -0.41 -0.50 -0.79 1.16 0.75 0.50 0.13 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.84

Seattle Mariners

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 67.1 9.3% -3.3 -24.0 23.8 $152.8M 28.2 7.0 2.35 — —
Z-score 1.10 0.63 -0.61 -1.16 -0.27 -0.27 -0.53 0.31 -0.07 — —
tNERD 1.10 0.63 -0.61 -1.16 -0.27 0.27 0.53 0.31 0.00 4.00 4.82

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 103 7.7% 62.9% 92.4 mph 24 19.3s 10 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.11 -1.39 -0.43 -0.66 -1.20 0.62 — — — —
pNERD -0.22 -0.69 -0.22 0.00 1.20 -0.31 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.62

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 63 15.8% 66.2% 95.5 mph 28 20.8s 31 0.0% — —
Z-score -2.29 2.52 1.00 0.75 -0.16 1.81 — — — —
pNERD 4.58 1.26 0.50 0.75 0.16 -0.91 0.05 0.00 3.80 10.19

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Come for Paul Skenes, stay to see whether Tyler Wells’ post‑surgery command and the Orioles’ late‑inning flair can make this more than a one‑man show. With a gNERD of 11.72—above today’s average—this rates as a pitching‑driven watch.

Skenes’ pNERD (11.31) shoulders most of the load, and the on‑field evidence backs it up: six scoreless with eight Ks in his last start and a league‑best run prevention profile, plus a near‑5:1 strikeout‑to‑walk ratio this season. The Pirates don’t always score for him, but he reliably supplies the electricity.

The team components are drabber—both tNERDs sit near today’s bottom third—which makes Baltimore’s storyline juice matter. Rookie Samuel Basallo just walked off Pittsburgh to open this series, and the Orioles have been living in one‑run, late‑night chaos lately; that volatility pairs nicely with a Cy‑Young‑caliber antagonist.

Wells (pNERD 0.00 due to thin MLB data) is the intrigue variable: he’s returning from UCL surgery with a rehab line built on strikes (19 K, 5 BB in his first five Triple‑A outings) and a season debut of 5 efficient innings with no walks. If that carries, this becomes a genuine duel; if not, it’s Skenes’ stage.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -111.0 7.9% -4.8 13.0 37.7 $88.9M 28.4 8.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -1.76 -0.50 -0.85 0.64 0.40 -1.13 -0.33 0.36 -0.74 — —
tNERD -1.76 -0.50 -0.85 0.64 0.40 1.13 0.33 0.36 0.00 4.00 3.73

Baltimore Orioles

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -14.8 9.1% -1.6 -15.3 14.6 $167.6M 29.2 -9.0 2.82 — —
Z-score -0.22 0.47 -0.34 -0.74 -0.71 -0.07 0.49 -0.41 0.85 — —
tNERD -0.22 0.47 -0.34 -0.74 -0.71 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.85 4.00 3.39

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 75 13.6% 65.1% 98.1 mph 23 18.6s -29 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.57 1.46 0.53 1.94 -1.47 0.06 — — — —
pNERD 3.14 0.73 0.26 1.94 1.47 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 11.31

Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

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Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Blue Jays minus Bo Bichette are still must-watch because their elite run prevention and playoff stakes can carry a low pNERD matchup. Houston’s banged‑up rotation and sturdy bullpen make this less about whiffs and more about gloves, game states, and late leverage. Toronto’s strong tNERD (8.48) squares with public metrics that put them near the top of MLB defenses, so even with Bichette shelved the Jays can win on the margins; that raises the floor on watchability. gNERD (10.21) sits around the historical median and the middle of today’s slate, so this isn’t a headliner, but it’s a clean, competitive watch. Houston’s average tNERD (5.69) leans on fielding and a bullpen that’s been asked to cover more while the rotation scrambles after Luis Garcia’s elbow scare. The pitchers won’t sell this by punchouts: both Jason Alexander and José Berríos bring middling xFIP (around league average) and below‑average swinging‑strike rates, though Alexander’s quicker pace helps the flow. Toronto’s division race context adds juice, and the Sportsnet booth rarely hurts; expect defense, situational hitting, and bullpen chess rather than a strikeout showcase.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Houston Astros

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 1.0 7.8% -5.4 15.8 49.5 $221.9M 29.0 32.0 2.17 — —
Z-score 0.04 -0.58 -0.95 0.77 0.96 0.66 0.28 1.45 -0.42 — —
tNERD 0.04 -0.58 -0.95 0.77 0.96 0.00 0.00 1.45 0.00 4.00 5.69

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 93.3 8.3% -5.3 29.9 28.2 $248.4M 29.6 28.0 3.10 — —
Z-score 1.52 -0.18 -0.93 1.46 -0.06 1.01 0.89 1.27 1.40 — —
tNERD 1.52 -0.18 -0.93 1.46 -0.06 0.00 0.00 1.27 1.40 4.00 8.48

Jason Alexander, Houston Astros

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 102 9.8% 61.5% 91.2 mph 32 17.1s 11 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.05 -0.37 -1.05 -1.21 0.89 -1.14 — — — —
pNERD -0.10 -0.19 -0.52 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.61

José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 104 9.3% 63.7% 92.4 mph 31 19.7s -6 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.17 -0.61 -0.10 -0.66 0.63 0.94 — — — —
pNERD -0.34 -0.31 -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.47 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.64

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Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

A quietly solid watch: two efficient starters, a bullpen-heavy home team, and playoff stakes without the hype machine. After San Diego’s late loss on a Robert Suarez homer allowed, the Padres hand the ball to a resurgent Nick Pivetta while Cincinnati leans on All-Star lefty Andrew Abbott to keep wildcard hopes warm.

The gNERD sits at 9.92—near the historical median and a tick below today’s slate—so the draw is pitcher-driven more than fireworks. Abbott’s profile backs it up: mid-3s FIP this year (around 3.6) with a strong K/BB, and he spent midsummer looking like a frontline arm per FanGraphs’ look under the hood. Pivetta brings the better pNERD and real run-prevention bones (FIP ~3.4, FIP- in the low 80s), plus the Petco fit that was forecast to soften his long-running homer issue.

Team-wise, the Reds’ bat-to-barrel problem drags their tNERD, though their speed helps the aesthetic; the Padres’ edge comes from a leveraged bullpen (even if Suarez just wore one) and a broadcast that flat-out adds to the experience. With Cincinnati within striking distance of a wildcard and San Diego still chasing the division, the stakes nudge this from “background game” to “keep-the-remote-close” territory.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -48.6 7.0% 5.0 -7.5 18.1 $115.7M 28.7 -24.0 2.09 — —
Z-score -0.76 -1.23 0.73 -0.36 -0.54 -0.77 -0.02 -1.10 -0.59 — —
tNERD -0.76 -1.23 0.73 -0.36 -0.54 0.77 0.02 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.63

San Diego Padres

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 12.6 7.1% -0.7 -8.3 65.9 $209.3M 30.0 16.0 3.47 — —
Z-score 0.23 -1.15 -0.19 -0.40 1.74 0.49 1.30 0.72 2.12 — —
tNERD 0.23 -1.15 -0.19 -0.40 1.74 0.00 0.00 0.72 2.12 4.00 7.07

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 105 10.8% 65.9% 92.8 mph 26 17.8s -40 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.23 0.11 0.90 -0.48 -0.68 -0.58 — — — —
pNERD -0.46 0.05 0.45 0.00 0.68 0.29 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.82

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 92 10.6% 65.9% 93.8 mph 32 18.6s -22 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.55 0.01 0.87 -0.03 0.89 0.06 — — — —
pNERD 1.10 0.01 0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.31

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Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

Power sinker vs. fresh-start fastball: José Soriano’s 97–100 mph two-pitch thunder meets new-Twin Taj Bradley’s mid‑90s heat, making this matchup more about arms than badges. It’s watchable because Soriano has real bat-missing/grounder upside, while Bradley brings volatility and velo—plus the series just produced a 12–2 game, so weirdness lurks.

The gNERD sits at 9.84—slightly below today’s slate average—but the average pNERD here (6.83) is comfortably above today’s norm, which props up two meh team profiles (avg tNERD 3.01). Soriano’s underlying looks strong (xFIP- ~82, big velocity), the precise blend that turns grounders into breezy innings when command shows. Bradley’s around league-average by xFIP- but adds watchability via youth and 96+ with a recent six‑K, one‑run Twins outing, even if his first start for Minnesota was bumpy.

Storyline spice: Bradley arrived in the Griffin Jax trade, so this is still an audition; Soriano already flashed top‑of‑rotation days this year (seven scoreless in his season debut, a 12‑K gem). Also, Royce Lewis just homered twice in this park to open the series before the Angels answered with a 12‑run outburst—evidence not of “momentum,” just of chaos potential, which pairs nicely with LAA’s big barrels and shoddy defense in the tNERD inputs.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Minnesota Twins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -17.4 8.7% -3.5 -12.9 47.7 $145.1M 28.8 14.0 2.30 — —
Z-score -0.26 0.15 -0.64 -0.62 0.87 -0.37 0.08 0.63 -0.17 — —
tNERD -0.26 0.15 -0.64 -0.62 0.87 0.37 0.00 0.63 0.00 4.00 4.51

Los Angeles Angels

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -44.5 10.7% 0.0 -47.1 -3.9 $203.8M 29.2 -10.0 2.59 — —
Z-score -0.69 1.76 -0.08 -2.28 -1.59 0.41 0.49 -0.46 0.40 — —
tNERD -0.69 1.76 -0.08 -2.28 -1.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 4.00 1.51

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 103 10.0% 62.8% 96.2 mph 24 18.7s 15 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.11 -0.28 -0.47 1.07 -1.20 0.14 — — — —
pNERD -0.22 -0.14 -0.23 1.07 1.20 -0.07 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.47

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 82 11.4% 61.3% 97.3 mph 26 18.1s 16 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.15 0.40 -1.14 1.57 -0.68 -0.34 — — — —
pNERD 2.30 0.20 -0.57 1.57 0.68 0.17 0.05 0.00 3.80 8.20

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

Watch for late-inning leverage and star cameos; the starters are more mystery than magnet. With Michael Wacha on the concussion IL, Kansas City turns to Jonathan Bowlan opposite Logan Allen, while Cleveland’s elite relief crew looms as the main attraction.

At a gNERD of 9.33, this sits a bit below today’s average, which tracks: the average pNERD is modest (3.99), Allen’s profile is soft (pNERD 2.98 with an xFIP- of 115 and tiny SwStr%), and Bowlan’s pNERD is 0.00 because we’ve got scant big-league data. The tNERD inputs suggest runs won’t come easy: both lineups grade light (KC and CLE negative in Batting Runs), so watchability tilts toward defense and bullpens. That favors Cleveland, whose relief unit remains a strength headlined by Cade Smith and friends, again graded among the league’s best.

If you want a storyline hook, it’s the headliners trying to scratch out just enough: José Ramírez is rolling and just powered a 2-0 win here, while Bobby Witt Jr. has returned from back spasms to give KC’s offense a pulse. Expect a low-scoring chess match where the Guardians’ bullpen depth can steal the show.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -63.1 7.7% -4.8 9.9 41.6 $130.0M 28.8 33.0 2.11 — —
Z-score -0.99 -0.66 -0.85 0.49 0.58 -0.58 0.08 1.50 -0.54 — —
tNERD -0.99 -0.66 -0.85 0.49 0.58 0.58 0.00 1.50 0.00 4.00 4.63

Cleveland Guardians

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -93.0 6.6% 6.1 18.5 51.8 $102.3M 27.5 -36.0 2.16 — —
Z-score -1.48 -1.55 0.90 0.90 1.07 -0.95 -1.25 -1.64 -0.44 — —
tNERD -1.48 -1.55 0.90 0.90 1.07 0.95 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.05

Jonathan Bowlan, Kansas City Royals

No detailed stats available

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 115 7.9% 61.5% 90.6 mph 26 15.2s -6 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.83 -1.29 -1.05 -1.49 -0.68 -2.66 — — — —
pNERD -1.66 -0.65 -0.53 0.00 0.68 1.33 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.98

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Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Come for Blake Snell’s bat-missing stuff and a heavyweight Dodgers lineup; stay to see whether Kyle Freeland’s recent “ace cosplay” shows up again. It’s a mid-tier gNERD on the day, but Snell’s pNERD boost and a lopsided tNERD split nudge this toward watchable.

Snell’s pNERD (6.55) rides an 88 xFIP- and plus velocity, the classic “whiffs first, strikes later” profile, facing a Rockies offense that ranks bottom-tier in runs and power relative to L.A.’s top-3 attack. Freeland (pNERD 4.14) has been nearer league-average by xFIP- (103), but he just punched out 10 over eight scoreless in his last start, a reminder that his ceiling still exists even if it’s rented by the night. The team split is stark: Dodgers’ tNERD (6.90) leans on barrels and a top bullpen that just re-added high-leverage lefty Alex Vesia, while Colorado’s tNERD (-0.67) is dragged down by weak bats, defense, and relief work. Recent series notes don’t hurt: Will Smith returned to the lineup, and L.A. has been stacking wins while flashing power from Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and friends. Netting it out: with gNERD 8.46 below today’s average, you’re watching for Snell’s strikeouts, a deep Dodgers pen, and whether Hunter Goodman’s 30-homer pop can supply an upset thump.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45 rating)

Colorado Rockies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -144.4 7.8% -9.4 -19.2 -8.0 $125.9M 27.9 23.0 1.73 — —
Z-score -2.30 -0.58 -1.59 -0.93 -1.79 -0.63 -0.84 1.04 -1.29 — —
tNERD -2.30 -0.58 -1.59 -0.93 -1.79 0.63 0.84 1.04 0.00 4.00 -0.67

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 75.3 9.9% -1.2 -7.7 51.7 $341.0M 29.6 0.0 2.45 — —
Z-score 1.24 1.11 -0.27 -0.37 1.07 2.26 0.89 -0.00 0.12 — —
tNERD 1.24 1.11 -0.27 -0.37 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 4.00 6.90

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 103 9.9% 67.8% 91.6 mph 32 19.0s 3 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.11 -0.32 1.72 -1.03 0.89 0.38 — — — —
pNERD -0.22 -0.16 0.86 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.05 0.00 3.80 4.14

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 88 14.8% 61.9% 95.2 mph 32 18.6s -12 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.79 2.04 -0.86 0.61 0.89 0.06 — — — —
pNERD 1.58 1.02 -0.43 0.61 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.55

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p

Summary

If you’re here for ace-versus-ace, look elsewhere; if you’re here for playoff stakes and a rookie with a turbo sinker, this will do just fine. The gNERD sits at 7.61—below the average for today—but the Giants’ surge and the Seymour curiosity bump the watchability.

By the numbers, this is a light pitching watch: the average pNERD (3.16) is well under today’s slate, with Eduardo Rodríguez (xFIP- ~108 in our model) and Carson Seymour (~114) both projecting below-average run prevention. That said, the context helps. San Francisco’s lineup has been carrying a late push, with Willy Adames powering a bona fide homer uptick while the club trims its Wild Card gap; their pen (Walker/Peguero) has been sturdy in leverage, which keeps close games tense. Seymour’s novelty is real: a rookie righty who works quickly and leans on a 96 mph sinker/96.3 in clips, enough to miss barrels when he’s in the zone. On the other side, Arizona’s better baserunning/defense mix is offset by a shakier bullpen, so if Rodríguez can’t miss bats, late innings favor orange and black.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 52.1 9.0% 5.0 9.6 -4.9 $189.5M 29.5 -2.0 2.19 — —
Z-score 0.86 0.39 0.73 0.47 -1.64 0.22 0.79 -0.10 -0.39 — —
tNERD 0.86 0.39 0.73 0.47 -1.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.81

San Francisco Giants

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -1.2 7.4% -8.0 7.0 38.5 $195.3M 29.3 -7.0 3.20 — —
Z-score 0.00 -0.90 -1.37 0.35 0.43 0.30 0.59 -0.32 1.59 — —
tNERD 0.00 -0.90 -1.37 0.35 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 4.00 4.10

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 108 9.5% 62.2% 92.0 mph 32 18.4s 14 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.41 -0.52 -0.73 -0.85 0.89 -0.10 — — — —
pNERD -0.82 -0.26 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 3.80 2.46

Carson Seymour, San Francisco Giants

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 114 9.5% 61.3% 96.4 mph 26 17.1s -11 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.77 -0.52 -1.12 1.16 -0.68 -1.14 — — — —
pNERD -1.54 -0.26 -0.56 1.16 0.68 0.57 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.86

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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Today’s gNERD floor doesn’t scream “appointment viewing,” but Eury Pérez’s electricity against the same Nationals lineup that just stung him gives this one a flicker of intrigue. The watch is simple: can 98 and nasty life beat quick adjustments, while Jake Irvin tries to sneak by on contact?

From a NERD lens, Pérez (pNERD 6.26) outpaces Irvin (1.53): upper‑90s heat and whiffs vs. a below‑average xFIP/whiff profile that rarely thrills. Pérez’s last two turns were bruising—0.2 IP, 5 ER vs. the Mets, then 4 IP, 7 ER vs. these Nats—but the velocity is intact, so stuff isn’t the issue. Washington just took a 7–5 from Miami and has stacked seven wins in eight, with James Wood and CJ Abrams contributing and Josh Bell supplying the loud swings. Irvin, meanwhile, is fresh off a seven‑run clunker, which matches his pNERD: few whiffs, shaky underlying run prevention. Team-wise, Miami’s modest tNERD edge (5.12 to 1.12) owes to better defense and a younger roster, while Washington’s weak barrels, iffy gloves, and a shaky pen sap the fun. If Pérez finds strikes and keeps it off barrels, there’s upside; if not, you’re scouting whether Irvin can survive on contact.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Washington Nationals (2.00 rating)

Washington Nationals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -35.0 7.7% -1.8 -35.0 -4.7 $115.9M 27.5 -25.0 2.00 — —
Z-score -0.54 -0.66 -0.37 -1.69 -1.63 -0.77 -1.25 -1.14 -0.75 — —
tNERD -0.54 -0.66 -0.37 -1.69 -1.63 0.77 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 1.12

Miami Marlins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -31.9 7.9% -1.3 5.4 3.3 $67.3M 26.8 0.0 1.79 — —
Z-score -0.49 -0.50 -0.29 0.27 -1.25 -1.42 -1.96 -0.00 -1.17 — —
tNERD -0.49 -0.50 -0.29 0.27 -1.25 1.42 1.96 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.12

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 118 7.6% 64.3% 92.1 mph 28 18.1s 17 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.01 -1.44 0.16 -0.80 -0.16 -0.34 — — — —
pNERD -2.02 -0.72 0.08 0.00 0.16 0.17 0.05 0.00 3.80 1.53

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 110 12.5% 64.1% 97.8 mph 22 19.8s -2 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.53 0.93 0.07 1.80 -1.73 1.02 — — — —
pNERD -1.06 0.47 0.04 1.80 1.73 -0.51 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.26

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