MLB: What to watch on September 11, 2025

• 11 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 4:15p

Summary

Two attacking lefties with whiffs and pace headline a top‑tier watchability matchup: Jesús Luzardo’s power mix against a Mets lineup that barrels everything. Philadelphia’s left side is patched together — Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are on the IL — so Bryce Harper is leading off, which adds both novelty and volatility.

The gNERD is sky‑high because both components pop: Mets tNERD is elite (10.6% barrel rate, strong batting runs), while the Phillies bring speed and gloves but a thinner offense without Turner/Bohm. Luzardo carries the higher pNERD, driven by plus velo and whiffs, and he just punched out eight over six in Miami; his sweeper/slider combo has looked back to form since arriving via the offseason trade. David Peterson’s pNERD trails but still signals competence (xFIP- in the high‑80s, quick tempo), giving this a legitimate “both‑sides” feel rather than ace-vs.-overmatch. The scheduled pairing is Peterson vs. Luzardo, with the division‑leading Phillies trying to protect a multiple‑game cushion on New York.

Net: watch for Luzardo’s velocity and whiffs against a high‑barrel Mets order, and whether Harper’s turn at the top can compensate for Philly’s missing infield anchors.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

David Peterson, New York Mets

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

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Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

A 100-mph rookie against an opener and two barrel-happy lineups is already fun; add Detroit thumping New York by a combined 23–3 the last two games, and the simmer is unmistakable. With a gNERD of 15.05—top ~5% in our historical sample—this profiles as one of the day’s better watches.

Cam Schlittler brings the novelty: his debut averaged 97.9 mph and touched 100, the fastest heater by a Yankees starter this season, and he’s held a rotation spot since, making him the “stuff” headliner here. Tyler Holton is the counter: Detroit has used him as an opener repeatedly, which usually means a quick look at a lefty before handing off to bulk innings—watchable strategy, even if it caps pNERD-style dominance.

The NERD bits back it up: both teams carry above-average tNERDs (DET 7.73, NYY 7.87) with plus barrel rates, while the pitchers’ xFIP components (Holton 87-, Schlittler 90-) hint at real strike-zone competence without turning this into a slog. And there’s fresh storyline juice: Detroit just routed New York in consecutive games, with late-inning homer barrages and the Yankees’ offense scuffling into double plays.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees

Tyler Holton, Detroit Tigers

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Two rookie-ish riddles on one mound: Rays lefty Ian Seymour’s bat-missing, quick-tempo profile meets the White Sox’s Rule 5 revelation Shane Smith, who burst onto the scene and even earned an All-Star nod. Add in Junior Caminero’s 40-homer thunder and Tampa Bay’s run-making chaos on the bases, and this one has sneaky morning-coffee appeal.

gNERD puts this solidly above today’s average, and the ingredients make sense: Seymour (pNERD 8.70) brings a strong run estimator (xFIP- 77), strikeout chops, and a brisk pace that keeps the camera busy; Smith (pNERD 4.77) offers mid‑90s velocity and a developing mix but a league-worse-ish xFIP- (106) that can turn contact into traffic. Tampa Bay’s tNERD edge (6.91 to 2.96) shows up in the how-they-score department: the Rays’ MLB‑leading steal count pressures a Sox defense that’s leaked runs all year, a contrast tailor‑made for watchability. If you like emerging‑arm matchups, Seymour’s first-start blueprint—five scoreless with eight Ks—suggests upside, while Smith’s early-season run from “Rule 5 curiosity” to rotation piece supplied real theater. And if you just want dingers, Caminero’s 42nd was a fresh reminder that any Rays plate appearance can flip an inning.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Tampa Bay Rays (2.27 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Chicago White Sox

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Two quality lefties on (likely) short leashes make this more pitcher-watchable than team-watchable. And after a messy, ejection-filled inning last game, there’s just enough spice to keep the remote parked here. With a gNERD of 9.88, this sits a touch below today’s average, but the arms lift it: pNERD average 6.73 beats today’s pitcher mean. MacKenzie Gore returns from the IL with above-average swing-and-miss and a tidy xFIP- (90 in the inputs), the sort of peripherals that have outpaced his surface line; Washington reportedly planned to activate him for the finale after a shoulder IL stint. Ryan Weathers, meanwhile, is being activated from the 60-day IL to start, likely with a workload cap; his spring jump to a 97-ish fastball added some intrigue before the lat detour. If you prefer clean baseball, beware: the Nationals’ defense rates poorly in our inputs and also imploded in that sixth-inning fiasco, while Miami’s bullpen grades shaky. The bats don’t help—both clubs carry below-average tNERDs—so the draw is Gore’s bat-missing and Weathers’ stuff/velocity versus light lineups. Miami did snap a five-game skid against Washington last game, but that’s color, not cause.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Washington Nationals (2.00 rating)

Washington Nationals

Miami Marlins

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins

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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:15p

Summary

Hard-throwing intrigue meets glove-first grind: Gavin Williams’ premium heat and Cleveland’s elite run prevention butt heads with two of MLB’s quieter lineups, so bring your appreciation for leather and late-inning leverage. Kansas City’s rotation shuffle puts more weight on a good bullpen, making this a tidy, tense watch rather than a slugfest.

With a gNERD of 9.45, this sits a touch below today’s average, but the ingredients are solid: Williams’ pNERD (5.29) is buoyed by upper‑90s velocity that has brushed triple digits and recently carried him within two outs of ending the Guardians’ 44‑year no‑no drought, while Stephen Kolek’s lower pNERD (3.20) and modest whiff profile point to balls in play for Kansas City’s gloves to decide.

Team-wise, the model is honest: Cleveland’s higher tNERD (6.11) rides defense and bullpen value, while both clubs’ bats have lagged—Cleveland near the bottom in average and runs, Kansas City similarly run-starved—so the watchability here leans on crisp pace and prevention more than fireworks.

There’s real context, too: both clubs remain on the fringes of the Wild Card mix, and Kansas City has been patching the rotation after Michael Wacha’s concussion IL stint, raising the odds of early high‑leverage bullpen cameos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Guardians

Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

A deft defense-versus-uncertainty watch: Toronto’s glove work flanks Kevin Gausman, while Houston hands the ball to Cristian Javier still in the shallow end of a post–Tommy John return. The gNERD sits a bit below today’s average because the pitching half lags, but both clubs’ strong team profiles keep it viable TV.

Gausman’s pNERD edge (5.46) pairs with a better‑than‑average xFIP and strike throwing, and his contact management plays to what’s been an elite Blue Jays defense this season. Javier’s the swing factor: this is just his sixth start back from surgery, with one gem mixed among bouts of shaky command, including a stumble versus New York. If you’re tuning for tactics, watch how Toronto’s hitters—one of the second‑half’s better units—lay off elevated heaters to force Javier into the zone.

The model likes the teams (both tNERDs above today’s mean), especially Toronto’s run prevention and Houston’s bullpen on paper, but the Astros’ late‑inning picture is frayed: Josh Hader’s out, Bryan Abreu is carrying the ninth, and usage has been heavy. The series context helps, too—Houston is coming off a 3–2 win on a Yainer Díaz ninth‑inning homer—which adds just enough spice to an otherwise pitcher‑tilted afternoon.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

This one’s a “tune in for Soriano, stay to see if Seattle keeps mashing.” With a mid-tier gNERD (8.34), watchability leans on José Soriano’s high pNERD and the Mariners’ suddenly thumping lineup, while Bryce Miller is more subplot than sure thing.

Soriano’s profile (8.16 pNERD, plus velocity and a sharp sinker/curve mix) fits the eye test—he’s shown ace flashes this year—even if his last outing was a clunker (8 ER vs. OAK), the volatility that makes him compelling. Seattle supplies the counterweight: they just dropped 18 on Atlanta, with Cal Raleigh reaching 53 homers and new bat Josh Naylor joining the power parade, which squares with the M’s above-average tNERD batting and barrels. The Angels’ tNERD drag shows up in the glove and bullpen, but they still barrel the ball and Mike Trout is coming off a go-ahead night, so there’s at least some thump behind Soriano. Miller’s the wild card: multiple elbow-IL stints and a rehab marked by reduced effectiveness suggest diminished swing-and-miss, matching his low pNERD. Relative to today’s slate, this sits below average, but Soriano vs. a hot Seattle order is a clean, watchable clash of stuff versus thunder.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:05a

Summary

If you like late drama, Baltimore’s been mainlining it; four walk-offs in five games says the scriptwriters are busy again. Meanwhile, Johan Oviedo’s post–Tommy John return gives this undercard some sneaky narrative value.

With a gNERD of 7.82, this sits below today’s average, but there’s texture: Cade Povich carries the better pNERD (5.45) and a legitimately solid xFIP- (93), with a league-average-ish FIP (4.28) underpinning the profile; he just returned from a hip IL stint and is lined up here after a win that still featured a bumpy sixth. The Orioles’ recent habit of walk-offs and cameos from youngsters like Jackson Holliday and Dylan Beavers nudge watchability upward even if the offense has lagged overall. On the other side, Oviedo’s velo (95.3) and comeback tale are more compelling than his 107 xFIP-, but he did notch a five-inning, six-K, one-run win in his second start back. Pirates bats grade poorly by our numbers, though their defense and bullpen are serviceable; Baltimore’s pen has under-shot season-long metrics yet has delivered in these tight finishes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Baltimore Orioles

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

This is the low‑NERD special: a playoff‑chasing Padres club with a strong (if lately overworked) bullpen hosts a Rockies lineup arriving fresh off a 17‑K sweep. Expect watchability to hinge more on relief aces than the listed starters. With a gNERD of 4.95—the lowest on today’s slate—the drag is mostly on the pNERD side: McCade Brown is a true unknown (pNERD 0.00), a recent call‑up who debuted Aug. 24 after a 2023 Tommy John and works a 94–96 sinker/slider; Randy Vásquez (‑1.31) brings a deep cutter/4‑seam/sinker/sweeper/curve mix that hasn’t missed many bats consistently. Team watchability tilts Padres: their tNERD (7.09) is buoyed by a top bullpen—still effective overall but visibly taxed after coughing up a late lead to Cincinnati—while Colorado’s tNERD (‑0.88) reflects bottom‑tier bats, baserunning, defense, and a thin pen. If you’re here, it’s for two plausible hooks: Brown’s “what does the kid look like the second time?” curiosity and whether San Diego’s late‑inning machine resets after a rough series. Vásquez did beat Colorado earlier this season and recently rejoined the rotation after time away, but the NERD math says bullpen theater > starter brilliance tonight.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres

McCade Brown, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

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