MLB: What to watch on September 12, 2025

• 12 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Texas Rangers @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Jacob deGrom returning to Queens to face the franchise he defined is reason enough; the model agrees, tagging this as today’s top watch with a gNERD that sits above the 95th percentile of historical games. Across from him is rookie volatility in Jonah Tong, a strikeout prodigy still being introduced to major-league bats. DeGrom’s first start against the Mets at Citi Field adds real narrative juice, and he’s looked plenty ace-like in 2025, even earning an All-Star nod; our pNERD loves his power/command profile (xFIP- 77, upper-90s velo). Tong, meanwhile, is the Mets’ No. 4 prospect and MiLB’s K leader this year, now making his third career start after punching out 12 in his first 11 big-league innings—an ideal “unknown upside” companion to deGrom’s known excellence. The Mets arrive on a six-game skid, which doesn’t predict outcomes but does heighten stakes, while their tNERD-leading offense ensures any mistake gets punished. Add in a lineup featuring Soto with Alonso and Lindor to test the kid, plus Texas’ clean baserunning/defense, and you’ve got elite stuff versus fresh chaos—excellent television.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Texas Rangers

New York Mets

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Detroit Tigers @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

Ace-on-ace with a twist: Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young-caliber buzzsaw meets Sandy Alcantara’s post–Tommy John revival. Detroit’s magic number is eight, so one dugout has stakes while the other has a former Cy winner trending up enough to play spoiler.

At a gNERD of 15.91, this lands near today’s ceiling and above the 95th percentile of historical games, and the reasons line up: Skubal’s massive pNERD (13.56) reflects elite underlying run prevention (xFIP- 61) and upper-90s heat, and he’s held foes to one earned run or fewer in four straight. Alcantara’s pNERD trails, but he’s stacked quality starts in four of his last five and the velocity is back in the upper 90s, hinting at a real rebound. Detroit’s higher tNERD (7.71) signals a watchable mix of barrels and baserunning, while Miami’s lighter bats (lower tNERD) make this more about whether Alcantara can match zeroes with Skubal. Bullpens on both sides grade as soft spots, nudging the drama either toward a crisp duel early or frayed nerves late if the starters exit. And if you like narrative juice, Skubal’s encore season has looked even sharper than his 2024 Cy run, putting him squarely in repeat territory.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Miami Marlins

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

High gNERD, real juice: Matthew Boyd has been a Wrigley cheat code, while Tampa counters with 97-mph Shane Baz and a bullpen that keeps games tight. Two top-tier tNERD teams—Cubs for defense/baserunning, Rays for speed—make this a watchable, run-precarious tilt.

gNERD 14.35 sits near the top both historically and for today, driven by Chicago’s big tNERD (elite barrels, fielding, and legs) versus a Rays club that runs well and leans on a deep pen. Baz’s pNERD edge (6.76 to 4.92) reflects the stuff: upper-90s heat and a curve that’s been a featured weapon; he also comes in off 5 innings/2 runs last time out. Boyd narrows that gap with command and an NL‑top‑10 FIP profile, and he’s been nearly untouchable at home this year. Recent color favors the Cubs: the bullpen is humming even with closer Daniel Palencia on the IL, and they’re fresh off locking down the Braves twice. Tampa’s offense is volatile but dangerous on the bases—rookie Chandler Simpson already hit 40 steals—so any Boyd mistake can turn into instant chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Chicago Cubs

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 5:10p

Summary

Speed, gloves, and a hot hand: Milwaukee’s track-meet Brewers plus Quinn Priester’s recent heater make this a high-upside watch, and the 12.31 gNERD says it’s one of today’s better bets. St. Louis counters with elite leather and Andre Pallante’s ground-ball tilt, so expect action on contact rather than a strikeout clinic.

Priester owns the stronger pNERD (6.29) and lately the outcomes to match — seven sturdy innings in his last start and an 11-decision win streak amid a 17-game Brewers run when he pitches — after arriving in April to bolster an injury-thinned staff, and he works quickly (pace helps the watchability). Milwaukee’s league-leading tNERD (9.82) reflects run-and-catch baseball that’s been a 2025 calling card, even with bullpen dings like Nick Mears; Abner Uribe has helped cover late. The Cardinals’ middling tNERD (4.82) is propped up by best-in-class defense, and they just got Alec Burleson back to fortify a light offense. Pallante’s pNERD (3.70) fits the profile — playable xFIP, sinker-heavy grounders, few whiffs — though he did spin seven scoreless recently, which keeps the floor watchable. If you like balls in play, aggressive running, and a starter on a roll, this checks the boxes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers

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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

A genuine watchability cocktail: Trevor Rogers’ strike-flooding breakout (roughly a 2.4–2.6 FIP with 56% zone rate and 66% first-pitch strikes) runs headlong into a first-place club and a playoff-loud Rogers Centre. Toronto answers with Chris Bassitt’s kitchen-sink and elite team defense, but Baltimore has lately been the pebble in contenders’ shoes.

At a gNERD 11.91, this sits comfortably above today’s average, and the “why” tracks: a high-pNERD arm (Rogers 8.36) versus a high-tNERD team (Jays 7.95). Rogers’ xFIP- of 81 and strike-throwing binge make him appointment viewing; Bassitt’s xFIP- of 91 is steadier, though his deliberate pace dings aesthetics. Toronto’s tNERD is buoyed by strong fielding and real bats, and the atmosphere just got a fresh jolt after Kevin Gausman’s two-hit shutout and a series win over Houston. Baltimore, meanwhile, arrives off a sweep and a staff that’s been stingy this month, with the season series in their favor (6–4) and the recent “spoiler” vibe fully engaged. Bassitt’s results against the O’s haven’t been great historically, tilting the pitching intrigue toward Rogers’ reinvented version. If you want one clean narrative: watch whether Rogers’ in-zone aggression and weak-contact profile can survive Toronto’s contact and gloves in a pennant-race building.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

One out from a no-hitter meets one rung up the strikeout ladder: Yamamoto’s peak form versus Verlander’s living‑legend craft in a rivalry with real October leverage. At a gNERD of 11.65—above today’s 10.71 average and brushing the historic 75th percentile—this deserves priority.

pNERD tilts toward Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8.66): a 75 xFIP- and mid‑90s velocity back bat‑missing stuff, fresh off that 8⅔‑inning near no‑no in Baltimore. Justin Verlander’s pNERD (3.38) and 107 xFIP- say “uneven,” yet he just fired six scoreless and moved past Gaylord Perry on the all‑time K list, which keeps the curiosity switch on. Team-wise, the Dodgers’ tNERD (7.19) leans on loud contact and a sturdy bullpen, and the lineup is humming—Mookie Betts just posted 13 RBIs in five games, with reinforcements returning. The Giants’ tNERD (4.07) lags thanks to light barrels and baserunning, but Rafael Devers and Willy Adames have been carrying real thump lately. Stakes help: seven head‑to‑heads remain, with LA up three in the West and San Francisco within striking distance of a wild card. In short, come for Yamamoto’s splitter against a warming Giants order, stay to see whether Verlander’s chess game can steal one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants

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New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Two heavy-hitting, high-tNERD clubs in a pennant race beat a low-pNERD matchup every time; this one’s about lineups, defense, and late innings more than the opening act. With the Yankees nudging ahead of Boston in a tight wild-card scrum and Aaron Judge teeing off again, the rivalry has real stakes and plenty of thump.

Luis Gil’s pNERD is light, and his profile still leans “live arm, uncertain command,” which tracks after a spring lat strain and last year’s walk issues; he’s back now but hasn’t built the same workload as his counterpart. Lucas Giolito, meanwhile, is the steadier watch: back from 2024 elbow surgery and handling a full season’s innings, with stretches this summer that looked like vintage changeup-forward Giolito.

The gNERD leans hard on the teams, and that checks out: New York’s barrel-happy offense headlined by Judge has been punishing, while Boston brings elite run-prevention vibes with a bullpen that’s graded well since spring and has remained a real asset.

Net: the starters won’t draw the aesthetes, but the rivalry, top-8-ish tNERDs (both above historic 75th percentile), postseason leverage, and the likelihood that the best action arrives once the pens open make this a worthwhile click.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

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Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Hurston Waldrep’s splitty breakout meets an Astros lineup that’s been chasing its tail — literally — since the deadline. With Houston’s starter still TBD and Atlanta’s relief corps reshuffling again, the surest thing on offer is Waldrep’s bat-missing and the possibility of a bullpen knife fight.

At 9.97, the gNERD lands just below today’s average, but Waldrep’s above-average pNERD (7.11) props it up: he’s opened 2025 at 4-0 with 33 Ks in 35.2 IP, and the underlying looks sturdy (roughly mid-3s xFIP, splitter driving whiffs). Houston’s stronger tNERD leans on fielding and a high-functioning pen, though that pen is dinged — Josh Hader and Kaleb Ort are among recent IL hits — so “strength” may be doing some heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s bullpen is in flux (Alexis Díaz claimed; John Brebbia DFA), and the lineup is still without Austin Riley for the year.

Storyline-wise, the Astros brought back Carlos Correa to spark an offense that’s produced just 3.7 runs per game since the deadline and has led MLB in plate appearances ending outside the zone — catnip for Waldrep if his command holds. If Houston can resist the chase and reach Atlanta’s thin middle relief, the Astros’ edge in team quality shows; if not, Waldrep is the watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Houston Astros

Atlanta Braves

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

If you like your watchability built on crisp starting pitching and late-inning uncertainty, this one qualifies. gNERD 9.88 lands near the historic median and a bit below today’s average, but Pablo López’s return and Brandon Pfaadt’s rebound nudge it upward.

López owns the stronger pNERD (5.62) on the back of an xFIP- of 89 and mid‑94 velocity, and he just came off the 60‑day IL to spin six innings of two‑run ball; that’s fresh, bankable skill returning to the mound. Pfaadt (pNERD 4.82, xFIP- 96) is closer to average, yet his last start was six tidy frames with seven Ks and zero walks, a reminder that his peripherals often outpace the shinier stats. Team-wise, both offenses sit around average by tNERD, but the late game leans chaotic: Arizona’s bullpen has underdelivered all season, while Minnesota’s lost Jhoan Duran at the deadline, thinning its endgame options. Ketel Marte exited midweek with a foot contusion but was expected back, a welcome boost for the visitors, and Byron Buxton remains the Twins’ swing-at-one pitch headliner with hits in 11 of 12 and recent power. Also of note: starting catcher Ryan Jeffers is on the concussion IL, tweaking López’s battery.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Minnesota Twins

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Pablo López, Minnesota Twins

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Cincinnati Reds @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

A middling gNERD gets a storyline bump: Brady Singer’s contact-first efficiency meets an A’s lineup powered by ROY frontrunner Nick Kurtz, with rookie J.T. Ginn’s sinker-slider control as the wild card. If you like cat‑and‑mouse more than strikeout theater, this one’s worth a look.

The model pegs the game near the day’s middle, which tracks: Singer’s pNERD is average and his xFIP- sits around league norm, but he’s been in form with a string of quality starts, and he works quickly—good ingredients for watchability even without big whiff rates. The Reds’ low tNERD owes to a light barrel rate and so-so pen, yet a just-reinforced bullpen (Chase Burns and Graham Ashcraft activated) raises the late-inning floor. The A’s drive the entertainment here: their higher tNERD reflects real thump, headlined by Kurtz already to 30 homers, plus fellow rookie Jacob Wilson spraying liners. Ginn’s profile—strike‑throwing sinker/slider, grounders when it’s right—can keep tempo crisp, though misses over the plate have burned him at times. Factor in Oakland’s shaky defense, Cincinnati’s decent baserunning, and Singer’s recent run prevention, and you get a tidy tactical watch rather than a fireworks show.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Cincinnati Reds (2.09 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Athletics

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

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Kansas City Royals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:45p

Summary

Walker Buehler’s Phillies debut is the hook; the bats and baserunning around him give this a sneaky‑watchable vibe despite a modest gNERD 9.12. Michael Lorenzen returns to Citizens Bank Park, where he once no‑hit for Philly, so the narrative’s richer than the projected pNERD duel.

Philly’s tNERD 8.90 tracks with reality: a deep offense and aggressive running game, even as Trea Turner’s hamstring shuffle forces lineup tweaks—Harper briefly led off before others (hello, Bader) auditioned. For storyline value, Buehler arrives from a rough Boston line (5.45 in 23 G) after a Lehigh Valley tune‑up and slots into a six‑man to ease the stretch run while the Phillies, fresh off a Mets sweep, push for top‑seed positioning.

KC’s tNERD 4.45 is dragged by the bats, but Bobby Witt Jr. is back from back spasms and that helps the entertainment quotient; still, they’ve dropped four of five and are clinging to wild‑card hopes. With pNERDs soft (Lorenzen 3.66, Buehler 1.24), expect fewer whiff‑fests and more contact, defense, and bullpen leverage—an area where the Royals can keep it tidy and the Phillies can turn pressure into runs. If you’re ranking by today’s slate, this sits below the gNERD average, but the Buehler‑in‑red debut plus Witt’s return make it worth a channel check.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Philadelphia Phillies

Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals

Walker Buehler, Philadelphia Phillies

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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

Stakes plus a homecoming subplot: Luis Castillo’s above-average profile (pNERD 5.23) meets ex-Mariner Yusei Kikuchi in a game Seattle badly wants for the AL West race. Also, Mike Trout sits on 399 career homers, a tidy round number waiting for a mistake.

With a gNERD of 7.87 this sits below today’s average, but Castillo’s velocity/strike-throwing bump and Seattle’s stronger tNERD (4.95) keep it viable, especially against an Angels side dragged down by poor defense and bullpen (tNERD 1.74). Castillo is coming off six efficient innings in Atlanta, while Kikuchi’s last turn was a two-inning, seven-run stumble—recent outcomes that explain the modest pNERD gap without pretending they predict tonight. Seattle just ran its win streak to six and pulled level with Houston, a storyline that boosts tension if not true talent; consecutive 12-inning marathons also mean you could see early bullpen activity and bench chess. On the bat side, Seattle’s banked +65.6 Batting Runs and steady barrels (0.094) contrast with the Angels’ louder barrels (0.107) but brutal gloves (-48.1 Fielding Runs), so cleaner baseball likely comes from the home side—with pockets of chaos if Kikuchi falls behind and Trout gets a cookie.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

This is a pitchers-and-chaos special: rookie Brad Lord’s slightly-ahead-of-the-curve profile meets Mitch Keller’s steady, contact-managed grind, with the lineups more likely to decorate the margins than steal the show. Low team NERDs on both sides drag the gNERD to 7.74, so the draw is on the mound, not in the batter’s box.

pNERD leans Lord (6.41) over Keller (4.31), and the ingredients check out: Lord’s better-than-average xFIP- (94), firm velo, and quick pace hint at watchability, and he just punched out seven Cubs over 5.2 IP while “attacking the zone,” a helpful September course-correction after a rough August. Keller’s profile is more workmanlike (xFIP- ~99, average velocity, decent strike-throwing), but he’s coming off 6.1 IP of two-run ball against Milwaukee, the kind of outing that plays when the gloves cooperate. The team side is shakier: Pittsburgh’s bats grade poorly by tNERD, while Washington pairs one of the day’s lowest tNERDs with sloppy defense and a thin bullpen; even CJ Abrams’s 30th steal and Daylen Lile’s recent hit streak came amid a shutout. Add that the Cairo-led Nationals may again be without Keibert Ruiz (concussion), and the pitching intrigue has to carry this one.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Washington Nationals

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

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Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Padres-in-a-playoff-push plus a top-tier bullpen versus a punchless Rockies lineup makes this more “background TV” than appointment viewing. If San Diego confirms Dylan Cease, the whiff upside nudges this into must-peek territory; if it’s JP Sears, expect competence, not fireworks. The gNERD sits at 7.45, below today’s average, and that tracks: Colorado’s tNERD is the floor for the day while San Diego’s solid 7.28 is doing the heavy lifting. Tanner Gordon’s pNERD (3.58) flags limited bat-missing and a so-so xFIP-, and his last meeting with the Padres ended with three homers and six runs in 3.2 innings, so the “uh-oh” meter is calibrated. If it’s Cease, his strikeout punch (and reputation) would lift the pitching component; if it’s Sears, the watchability stays more middle-lane. Either way, San Diego’s bullpen is a feature, and it just slammed the door in a 2-0 opener that pulled the Padres tighter into the race. Colorado has dropped six straight, hasn’t scored since Tuesday, and just lost promising rookie Chase Dollander to the IL, all of which drags the drama. Also: the Padres are 8-2 vs. the Rockies this year with five shutouts, four in San Diego—fun for locals, less so for neutral viewers.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians, 4:10p

Summary

It’s the lowest gNERD on today’s slate, but not a total skip: Cleveland’s playoff pulse and a run-prevention edge could manufacture some late-inning tension. Tanner Bibee opposes Martín Pérez as confirmed probables, with Bibee the more compelling arm and Cleveland sitting within three games of the final AL wild card.

At 6.67, this game lands well below both today’s average and the historical median, mostly because the pNERD blend (2.06) is light: Bibee’s 3.70 outpaces Pérez’s 0.42, and their underlying xFIP- marks (104 vs. 117) project more grind than sizzle. Chicago’s tNERD drags with weak bats and defense, while Cleveland’s higher tNERD leans on baserunning, gloves, and a bullpen that grades well here, so if you watch, you’re betting on tight sequencing more than whiff showcases. The narrative props help a bit: the Guardians just took a series and remain in the chase, while the White Sox—yes, those White Sox—have won nine of eleven behind kids like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery, even if star power is muted with Luis Robert Jr. out.

If you’re cherry-picking moments, peek at Bibee navigating Teel/Montgomery and at Kyle Manzardo, who’s hammered Chicago this year.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Martín Pérez, Chicago White Sox

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

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