MLB: What to watch on September 13, 2025

• 13 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 5:15p

Summary

Today’s top gNERD pits Jacob Misiorowski’s searing stuff against Sonny Gray’s craft, with Milwaukee’s chaos-on-the-bases and airtight bullpen tilting the stage. If you’re choosing one game, it’s the power rookie versus the savvy run-suppressor, with real stakes attached.

Misiorowski (pNERD 10.91) is appointment viewing: the 6-foot-7 righty pairs elite extension with triple-digit life, producing Statcast-leading perceived velocities of roughly 101 mph on the fastball and 97 on the slider—and he opened his career by no-hitting St. Louis for five before a precautionary exit. Gray (pNERD 6.92) remains a worthy foil, carrying an xFIP- around 77—comfortably better than league—while living in the zone enough to let the Cardinals’ plus defense and bullpen share the work. Milwaukee’s hefty tNERD (9.85) comes from run-prevention theater: high-end baserunning, gloves, and a deep pen that manufactures pressure even without gaudy barrels. Context helps: this game’s 16.24 gNERD leads today’s slate and sits above the 95th percentile historically, so the watchability ceiling is real. And the storyline juice is fresh—Milwaukee just became MLB’s first to 90 wins and keeps pressing, while St. Louis, now without defensive keystone Masyn Winn, needs Gray to thread a narrow path.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

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Texas Rangers @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

Rookie vs. wily vet is the hook: Brandon Sproat’s big-velocity, five-pitch audition meets Patrick Corbin’s guile-and-contact routine. With a gNERD of 13.32—well above today’s average—and the Mets’ tNERD leading the slate, this grades as one of the more watchable options.

Sproat just debuted with six innings, seven strikeouts, and a no-hit bid into the sixth; the arsenal is upper-90s heat plus a firm change and sweeper, though command can wander, which is exactly the sort of volatility that makes for good TV. Corbin arrives with an average-ish run estimator (xFIP- ~99 by our inputs) and little swing-and-miss, a veteran innings plug the Rangers signed to steady a rotation thinned by injuries. The entertainment balance tilts toward the Mets’ bats and broadcast—top-of-the-day tNERD built on barrels and run creation—while Texas contributes crisp defense and live legs. Meanwhile, New York’s rotation churn (Senga rehabbing, Jonah Tong’s spot in question) keeps the Sproat subplot spicy. If you needed a narrative nudge, even deGrom’s homecoming opener set the stage for this series.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Texas Rangers

New York Mets

Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers

Brandon Sproat, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

This checks a lot of watchability boxes: a gNERD of 12.93 (top-quartile historically and above today’s average) plus two of MLB’s most larcenous clubs on the bases and a crisp Rasmussen-versus-contact matchup. Add a Rizzo celebration at Wrigley and Nico Hoerner riding a hit streak, and you’ve got narrative garnish to the numbers.

Drew Rasmussen’s pNERD (6.39) is buoyed by an 87 xFIP- and mid‑90s heat, and the results have followed: five scoreless in his last outing and a season line with a sub‑1.00 WHIP; he’s also been stingy on barrels for weeks, which matters more than ERA here. Colin Rea’s lower pNERD (2.33) reflects fewer whiffs (K ~18% and 98 K in 136 IP), but he can lean on one of 2025’s better team defenses to turn balls in play into outs. The entertainment engine, though, is the team side: Cubs tNERD is robust (10.35) thanks to plus bats and gloves, while Tampa Bay’s 6.79 is goosed by elite speed. Expect action—Rays lead MLB in steals and the Cubs aren’t far behind, by both steals and baserunning value. With Chicago’s closer Daniel Palencia on the IL and saves lately shared, the late innings could get weird—in a good way for neutral viewers.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Chicago Cubs

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Colin Rea, Chicago Cubs

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New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 1:10p

Summary

Max Fried’s stronger underlying run prevention (xFIP- 84) meets Brayan Bello, the Yankee-tamer who’s already strung 14 scoreless innings against them this year; the mound duel is the hook. Pair New York’s elite barrels with Boston’s gloves-and-bullpen edge, and you get watchability by design, not accident.

This game’s gNERD is 12.87—well above today’s 10.89 average—because both teams rate highly (tNERD: NYY 8.01, BOS 8.87) while the starters land around average (pNERD: Fried 5.08, Bello 3.77). The appeal is contrast: the Yankees crush the ball (barrel-rate component +2.52; batting runs +1.74), while Boston brings slick defense and a sturdy relief corps (fielding +1.25, bullpen +1.44). Fried arrives on a heater and even blanked Boston for six on Aug. 22, but Bello has already outdueled him twice.

Recent context helps: New York just won 4–1 at Fenway behind six no-hit innings from Luis Gil and another Aaron Judge moonshot, nudging the Yankees ahead in a tight wild-card race; late leads now funnel to Devin Williams and David Bednar. Boston, meanwhile, has leaned on Bello’s power sinker/velo profile despite middling whiffs. Also note Anthony Volpe’s shoulder has him sitting, trimming New York’s infield offense.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Max Fried, New York Yankees

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

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Cincinnati Reds @ Athletics, 7:05p

Summary

It’s a Greene-light special: elite‑pNERD Hunter Greene versus a home‑split hazard in Luis Severino. With a Big Three Hall of Fame night in West Sacramento as backdrop and a gNERD of 12.79 (well above today’s average and near the historic upper quartile), this one earns your remote’s respect.

Greene’s 12.41 pNERD is the headliner, powered by upper‑90s gas and swing‑and‑miss, plus a tidy 3.20 FIP and a recent 12‑strikeout, one‑hit gem that reminded everyone why he’s appointment viewing; his K/BB has also sat in ace territory. Severino, meanwhile, brings a middling FIP (~4.05) and the league’s most conspicuous Jekyll/Hyde act: solid on the road but bruised at Sutter Health Park, where his run prevention has lagged badly. If his home woes persist, Greene’s whiffs plus Cincinnati’s modest bullpen edge tilt the “watch for pitching” meter toward the visitors.

Team-wise, the A’s carry the livelier tNERD (7.12) with contact/OBP that keeps innings noisy, and they opened the set with a win, so there’s spoiler spice even if their defense and pen wobble. The Reds’ bats are volatile (light on barrels), but Greene’s pNERD heft makes this a strong pick among today’s slate.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Cincinnati Reds (2.09 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Athletics

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Luis Severino, Athletics

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, 6:05p

Summary

Logan Webb’s grounders-plus-whiffs breakout meets Clayton Kershaw’s long-standing Oracle Park comfort in a rivalry game with real stakes. San Francisco rides in off a walk-off that tightened the wild-card race, while L.A.’s top-tier bats try to punch back, so the gNERD 12.35 feels earned.

Webb owns the night’s pitching intrigue: a high pNERD (9.49) backed by improved strike and whiff rates without sacrificing his elite ground-ball profile, and he just crossed the 200-strikeout milestone this week. That combination keeps contact tame and innings efficient. Kershaw’s pNERD (3.99) is lighter, but pace and command still play—and he’s historically thrived on this mound, leading visiting pitchers in wins at Oracle Park.

Team-wise, the Dodgers’ higher tNERD (7.10) tracks with a lineup that ranks near the top of MLB in runs, homers, and OBP, plus a sturdy bullpen; the Giants’ lower tNERD (4.10) masks a capable pen and a glove-first group that can squeeze extra outs. Add a fresh chapter—yesterday’s extra-inning gut punch courtesy of Patrick Bailey—and the atmosphere is playoff-adjacent without the breathlessness. Expect Webb’s run-prevention skills to define the pace, Kershaw’s guile to test the edges, and every baserunning decision to feel oversized. Also: reports have Kershaw lined up to oppose Webb here.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

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Detroit Tigers @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

A solid mid-card watch: Detroit’s bats and baserunning grade well by NERD, while both bullpens promise late-inning plot twists. With Tarik Skubal leaving the opener early and Javier Báez exiting after a foul ball to the face, the Tigers pivot to newly acquired Charlie Morton against Janson Junk, keeping the storyline warm even if the pNERDs are tepid. gNERD 10.66 lands just above the long-run median and about middle for today, and the tilt is mostly on Detroit’s side: a 7.69 tNERD built on a healthy 9.7% barrel rate and plus baserunning, while Miami’s bats lag by NERD. Morton’s profile is roughly league-average by xFIP- (103) with adequate velocity, and Junk’s in the same neighborhood (xFIP- 100 with strong strike throwing but few whiffs), so the entertainment leans toward contact, defense, and managerial choices more than strikeout artistry. Both pens grade poorly by NERD, which is watchability code for “don’t change the channel in the seventh.” The Marlins just popped three homers in the opener, and Riley Greene is up to 34 on the year if either starter wobbles—enough juice to make an average-pitching matchup feel lively.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Miami Marlins

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:10p

Summary

Rookie Parker Messick (pNERD 8.66) is the draw: his strong xFIP- (79) and get-in-the-zone pace meet a Guardians team built on defense and run prevention (tNERD 6.11) against a White Sox club with weaker bats and gloves (tNERD 3.06). Cleveland’s push tightened after Tanner Bibee’s two-hit shutout and a nudge in the wild-card chase, so the stakes add a little extra charge.
The matchup tilts toward “watchable because of one side”: Messick’s early MLB run includes 7 scoreless in his home debut and 6 IP/1 R in his last start, and he’s looked like a command-first lefty who steals strikes and limits damage; Davis Martin’s pNERD (2.84) and xFIP- (111) suggest more contact and fewer whiffs. Chicago is also down Luis Robert Jr., trimming the star power in a lineup that already lags in barrels and fielding. The probables are set as Davis Martin vs. Parker Messick, and Cleveland’s rookie has been efficient from the jump after debuting in late August. With a gNERD of 10.33 (near today’s middle), this rates as a solid watch if you enjoy the “can the kid keep shoving?” subplot and the Guardians’ tidy run-prevention machine more than a back-and-forth slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

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Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Hunter Brown is the hook: a power-armed riser with ace-level run suppression against a Braves lineup missing key bats and backed by a shakier bullpen. Bryce Elder’s recent pitch-shape glow-up keeps this from feeling preordained.

Listed probables are Brown vs. Elder, with Houston atop its division while Atlanta tries to halt a home skid, which fits a gNERD squarely in today’s middle tier. Brown pairs model-friendly traits (96 mph heat and a 74 xFIP- in the inputs) with results that travel—his 2025 FIP sits around 2.9, and recent analysis has him performing like an ace over the past calendar year. Elder’s season indicators are rougher, but his last handful of outings show real improvement: better K/BB, homer control, and an xFIP in the mid-3s even as the ERA run kept dropping. Atlanta’s watchability takes a hit without Austin Riley (season-ending core surgery) and with Sean Murphy done for the year, thinning the run-creation spine behind Ronald Acuña Jr. Late-inning texture tilts Houston: recent comparisons have the Astros’ bullpen performing near top-10 by ERA while Atlanta lags in the 20s.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Houston Astros

Atlanta Braves

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Minnesota Twins, 4:10p

Summary

Joe Ryan’s riding fastball is the headliner, and a stacked Twins bullpen versus a leaky Arizona pen gives this mid-tier gNERD matchup real late‑inning juice. If Ketel Marte’s foot is fine and Byron Buxton’s knee bruise cooperates, there’s star power orbiting two starters with very different paths to outs.

Ryan (pNERD 6.11) brings an above‑average run‑prevention profile (xFIP‑ 87) and the first‑half’s top four‑seamer by run value, even if he’s fresh off a clunker against Kansas City; the strike/whiff skills still argue for a rebound. Ryne Nelson (pNERD 4.88) counterpunches with 95‑plus and a heavy four‑seam diet that’s played lately, though the repertoire beyond the heater remains a work in progress. The Twins’ lineup has been uneven, but Royce Lewis just flashed thump with a two‑homer night, while Buxton recently joined the 30‑HR/20‑SB club before a knee contusion; both are worth monitoring.

Team context nudges watchability: Minnesota’s bullpen projects as one of baseball’s best, an edge over Arizona’s relief group (reflected in the tNERD components), and Ryan’s quicker tempo helps. With a gNERD of 10.03, this sits near the historical median and a touch below today’s average, but Ryan’s fastball vs. Arizona’s contact/speed game (positive batting, baserunning, fielding components) keeps it firmly on the short‑list.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Minnesota Twins

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Bryan Woo’s 95–96 mph fastball and strike-throwing (pNERD 8.21) headline a Mariners club on a seven-game roll, their bullpen spotless for the streak and Andres Muñoz fresh off save No. 35. Across the aisle is novelty: rookie lefty Mitch Farris, who won his Sept. 2 debut with five composed innings and now gets a tougher exam in Seattle.

The gNERD 9.97 sits near the historic median and below today’s slate average, so the hook is quality pitching and real stakes more than chaos. Woo just punched out nine with zero walks his last time out and backs it with a bat-stifling four-seamer (.150 BA allowed) at 95.7; Farris is the wild card with a blank pNERD but a credible first impression. Team-wise, Seattle’s tNERD 5.03 fits the profile: positive batting runs and age tilt, plus that airtight late game; the Angels’ 1.70 is dragged down by shaky defense and bullpen, even if the lineup can barrel a mistake. The result is a watch that leans pitcher-forward—Woo’s stuff and command against an error-prone club with pop—amped by Seattle’s division race pressure. If you want stakes plus stuff, this is in the queue; if you want crisp glovework, keep your thumb near the remote.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Mitch Farris, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

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Kansas City Royals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

Come for the Phillies’ machine-like offense and pennant push, stay for the curiosity of a 25-year-old rookie trying to hold back a Citizens Bank Park tide. With both starters carrying low pNERDs, this one’s about the lineups and the stakes, not a duel.

gNERD 9.31 sits a tick below today’s average but near the historical median, and the split explains it: Philadelphia’s robust tNERD (8.94) boosts watchability while the pNERDs (Bergert 3.16, Walker 2.11) do not. The Phillies are nudging toward clinching the NL East, which adds genuine bite, and they’ve been ripping through opponents lately, so any mistake can snowball. Ryan Bergert is the variable worth a peek: he opened his K.C. tenure with competence and, per MLB’s preview, has frequently kept runs down, though his underlying xFIP- (113) says proceed with caution. Taijuan Walker remains more “can he navigate six?” than “can he miss bats?”, and his recent log reads volatile, which pairs nicely with Philly’s baserunning-and-barrel profile and poorly for pace of play purists. Probables are set (Bergert vs. Walker), so if you’re prioritizing, file this as a mid-tier watch elevated by Philly’s attack and the division-race backdrop.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Bergert, Kansas City Royals

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

Low pNERDs, high variance: this one rates as a mid-tier watch because Toronto’s crisp run prevention and thump can carry the card while Max Scherzer auditions for “still Max” status. Baltimore’s counter is opportunism—let Tomoyuki Sugano keep it on the rails, hope the bats nick a 40-year-old navigating thumb/back aftercare, and let a strong broadcast crew fill the dead air.

The gNERD sits at 7.65, below today’s average, mostly because both pNERDs are light: Scherzer 2.61 and Sugano 1.30, with xFIP- marks of 111–113 and muted whiff rates, so whiffs may be scarce and balls in play plentiful. Toronto’s tNERD (8.00) does the heavy lifting—plus bats and especially plus fielding—whereas Baltimore’s tNERD (3.39) is dragged by defense and baserunning, though the booth grades well. For storylines, Scherzer has been handled carefully after a season of thumb issues and a recent back scare, yet he’d run a 4-1, 3.36 line since August before the tweak; if his strike-throwing holds, the ceiling rises.

Toronto’s lineup form is real enough: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reached base five times in the opener of this series as the Jays won 6-1, reinforcing the watchability case if they get traffic again. Baltimore did activate Tyler O’Neill, offering a needed power add if he’s in; otherwise, it’s on contact quality and bullpen choreography.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Rookie-on-rookie roulette: Bubba Chandler vs. Andrew Alvarez, with Washington’s kid-core (Crews, Wood, House) providing most of the sizzle. With a gNERD of 7.38—near the floor of today’s slate—this leans “curiosity” over “can’t-miss.”

Chandler is the volatile draw: he followed a sparkling, four-inning save in his debut and another scoreless relief stint with a first-start thud (9 runs in 2.2 IP), the kind of swing that makes outcomes feel wide open. Alvarez, a 26-year-old lefty, has the cleaner line so far—five scoreless, one-hit innings in his debut—so Washington’s side of the rookie experiment starts with a little more floor. If you need some non-pitching juice, the Nationals’ recent win over Pittsburgh featured a Brady House homer, a Dylan Crews go-ahead shot, and James Wood doing star things on both sides of the ball, a tidy snapshot of why their rebuild is at least fun to sample. The NERD pieces say keep your enthusiasm holstered: both offenses grade light and Washington’s defense and bullpen have dragged, while Pittsburgh’s glove work and pen are the steadier entertainment value. If you tune in, do it to scout futures and embrace the possibility of a delightfully weird box score.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Washington Nationals

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

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Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

If you’re here for strikeouts and a milestone chase, Dylan Cease trying to clear 1,000 career innings with San Diego’s MLB‑best bullpen behind him is your draw; if you’re here for a duel, temper expectations. Colorado did just snap its Petco Park lull with Blaine Crim’s first MLB homer, and the Padres’ slim division/WC margin keeps this “should win” from feeling entirely preordained.

With a gNERD of 7.16—near the floor of today’s slate—the split is obvious: Padres’ solid tNERD (buoyed by a top‑tier ‘pen) versus a Rockies tNERD dragged down by light bats, sloppy baserunning, and a leaky bullpen. San Diego’s watchability rests on Cease’s pNERD (7.5) and bat‑missing stuff; the righty has continued to pile up punchouts and sits five outs from that round‑number innings mark. Colorado recalls Bradley Blalock to patch the rotation; projections peg a short leash and his earlier thrashing by these Padres (12 runs in 3.2 IP) hardly boosts the pregame intrigue. If the Padres get even a modest lead, their bullpen—best‑in‑class by ERA lately—can turn this into cruise control. The Rockies’ surprise win last game proves weirdness is possible, but the entertainment case here is mostly Cease, the chase, and whether San Diego stabilizes after a stumble while sitting 2.5 back in the West.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres

Bradley Blalock, Colorado Rockies

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

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