MLB: What to watch on September 14, 2025

• 14 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Fenway offers a clean hook: Garrett Crochet’s whiff factory versus the Yankees’ barrel brigade, with today’s top gNERD saying this rivalry tilt deserves your screen. If you like elite stuff against elite contact, this is the watch.

Crochet’s pNERD-leading side of the matchup is backed by ace-level run prevention skill (FIP in the mid-2s earlier this summer) and a cutter-forward mix that’s played against everyone, including New York; he’s already shoved against the Yankees multiple times, striking out 11 in a recent romp. Boston’s tNERD juice also comes from a top bullpen and plus defense, which matters if Crochet hands it off after six or seven. New York’s counter is Will Warren, whose cartoonish sweeper gives him puncher’s-chance whiffs, and he’s arrived at this one on a tidy 30:10 K:BB heater with six strong frames his last time out. Recent series vibes: the Yankees just took the last meeting behind Max Fried while jockeying for playoff seeding, so the stakes and noise are real. With both teams carrying above-average tNERDs and Crochet sporting today’s premium pNERD, this rates as the day’s clearest “don’t overthink it” watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

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Texas Rangers @ New York Mets, 10:40a

Summary

A top-tier gNERD (15.85) meets a live-wire storyline: Mets rookie Nolan McLean’s high-octane, quick-tempo starts collide with Juan Soto fresh off a 40–HR/30–SB milestone and a bullpen that’s been springing leaks. If you like youth, velocity, and late-inning chaos, this rates near the top of today’s slate. McLean’s pNERD (10.30) is buoyed by a strong xFIP- (72), 95+ velo, and brisk pace; he’s allowed two earned or fewer in each MLB start and brings a five-pitch mix featuring a mid-80s sweeper. The Mets’ tNERD (11.61) comes from thunder (elite barrel rate) and watchable TV, and Soto just cranked No. 40 to complete the 40/30 flex. Texas isn’t flashy (tNERD 5.98) but runs well and fields well, and swingman Jacob Latz has recently delivered real innings, including 5.2 scoreless vs. Milwaukee. New York’s bullpen has been good by season quality but wobbly lately, coughing up a late lead to Texas amid an extended skid—catnip for watchability even if not predictive. Injuries matter: Marcus Semien remains on the shelf (pushing depth pieces forward), and Corey Seager has missed time following an appendectomy.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: New York Mets (3.32 rating)

Texas Rangers

New York Mets

Jacob Latz, Texas Rangers

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, 10:37a

Summary

Shane Bieber’s comeback tour meets a bullpen day — one ace-caliber ceiling against a whole lot of relief-roulette. Toronto’s playoff push plus last night’s walk-off spice makes this a worthy channel-stopper.

With a gNERD of 12.73, this lands in top-quartile watchability historically, and the ingredients check out. Bieber’s pNERD (8.96) rides an excellent xFIP- (65) and brisk pace, and he’s already flashed form since returning from Tommy John and a July trade — nine strikeouts, zero walks in his Blue Jays debut, followed by two more starts to stretch out. Toronto brings a strong tNERD (8.23) built on run prevention — elite fielding and enough bats — and, at 86-62, sits atop the AL East with No. 1 seed aspirations. Baltimore’s tNERD (3.27) drags, and today’s likely opener Albert Suárez is fresh off the IL and short stints, setting up a true bullpen game after Yennier Cano’s latest ninth-inning stumble. Add the immediate narrative heat — Toronto walked off the O’s last night — and you get a watch with both quality (Bieber) and chaos (Baltimore’s relief corps).

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

Albert Suárez, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Two solid-but-not-sensational starters, plenty of action elsewhere: this gNERD 12.48 lands in the upper third of today’s slate and around the historic 75th percentile because the teams themselves drive the watchability. Imanaga is chasing a run of consecutive quality starts while the Rays have quietly stacked wins behind Houser, which gives this matchup narrative juice beyond the middling pNERDs.

The pitching profiles say “balls in play”: Houser’s near-league-average xFIP- (100) with pace and average velo meets Imanaga’s command-forward line (high strike% but a 110 xFIP-), so whiffs may be scarce and gloves busy. The Cubs’ tNERD is doing the heavy lifting—above-average bats, plus baserunning and elite defense—while Tampa Bay counters with top-tier baserunning and a sturdier bullpen than glove work, which should keep late innings tense. Relative to today’s average gNERD (10.45), this is a clear cut above without reaching must-watch heights.

Storyline sprinkles: Chicago’s offense has cooled lately, trimming the margin for error, even as Imanaga’s QS streak continues; Houser enters on a team five-start win run, a reminder that Tampa Bay often finds ways late. Expect crisp tempo, plenty of baserunning pressure, and a defense-versus-contact showcase with just enough pitcher intrigue to keep you parked.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Tampa Bay Rays

Chicago Cubs

Adrian Houser, Tampa Bay Rays

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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Kansas City Royals @ Philadelphia Phillies, 10:35a

Summary

Clinch watch in South Philly: with Trea Turner and Alec Bohm out, Aaron Nola follows a six‑scoreless tune‑up while rookie Noah Cameron brings a quietly sturdy year. A gNERD of 11.74 puts this in today’s upper tier and near the historical 75th percentile.

Cameron’s pNERD (5.53) leans on a brisk pace and league‑average run‑prevention (xFIP‑ ~100); he just punched eight over seven in Cleveland. Nola’s pNERD (4.28) is dinged by tempo, but the skills (xFIP‑ 92) still play; he blanked the Mets with seven Ks after a choppy, injury‑tagged season. The Phillies can clinch the NL East with a win or a little help, even as Turner and Bohm sit.

Quick plot points: Walker Buehler debuted for Philly in a rout of these Royals, Bryce Harper homered, and K.C.’s offense has been light; Bobby Witt Jr. returned from a brief back issue. Add Philly’s high‑end tNERD ingredients (baserunning, defense, solid bullpen), and you’re likely choosing between tidy, low‑scoring chess if Cameron lands early strikes—or a late‑tilting home win if the Phillies’ depth grinds him down.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Kansas City Royals

Philadelphia Phillies

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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Cincinnati Reds @ Athletics, 1:05p

Summary

Power vs. polish in a powder keg: 22-year-old Luis Morales is pumping 97–99 with early success, while Nick Lodolo’s command-and-curveball game travels—and both must survive Sacramento’s cozy confines. With a gNERD of 11.62 (above today’s average), you’re getting legit stuff plus a ballpark that turns small misses into souvenirs.

Lodolo’s pNERD (6.07) is buoyed by a strong xFIP- (90) and a recent scoreless start as he settles back in after an early-August blister IL stint; his efficiency and grounder tilt fit the assignment. Morales brings the higher pNERD (7.06), elite velocity, quicker pace, and the prospect sheen; he’s already logged multiple 5+ IP/1 ER turns at Sutter Health Park. Team-wise, this tilts entertaining because the A’s hit better than they catch, while Cincinnati’s bats lag in barrels—so crisp pitching duels can unravel on one mistake or one misplayed fly. The setting helps: Sutter Health Park has played far more hitter-friendly than expected, with gaudy fly-ball and homer factors and a short right-field porch.

Add in real stakes for a Reds club chasing the wild card, and this profiles as a watch where the pitchers’ skills drive the intrigue and the venue supplies the chaos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Cincinnati Reds (2.09 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Athletics

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Luis Morales, Athletics

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

Tyler Glasnow’s power meets Robbie Ray’s reinvention in a rivalry that leans pitcher-forward—until the Dodgers’ barrels and a lively ballpark say otherwise. Glasnow just spun seven hitless innings, and Los Angeles recently dropped 13 on San Francisco, so the floor is sturdy and the ceiling is noisy.

At 10.55 gNERD, this sits a hair above today’s slate average, and the why is clear: the Dodgers’ 7.24 tNERD is buoyed by elite barrel rate and a plus bullpen, while the Giants’ 3.96 tNERD is dragged by light thump and rough baserunning. On the mound, pNERD leans Glasnow (5.93) over Ray (3.98); his 96 mph and 86 xFIP- signal better underlying run prevention than Ray’s closer-to-average 102 xFIP-. That said, the Giants have banked wins in seven of Ray’s last eight starts and are 22–8 when he goes—useful context, not prophecy.

Add star wattage—Shohei Ohtani sits on 49 homers—and the Dodgers’ bullpen run value, and you get a watchable mix of whiffs, star power, and late-inning leverage. If you prioritize one game, this is a solid mid-high option: better-than-median gNERD historically, LAD’s offense and pen to raise the entertainment floor, and just enough Ray-ism to keep it tight.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

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Detroit Tigers @ Miami Marlins, 10:40a

Summary

Detroit’s bats-and-legs offense meets Miami’s rookie audition; a contrast game with solid watchability. With a gNERD of 10.19—just a tick below today’s average—the draw is less about aces and more about experiments and stakes. The Tigers still lead the AL Central and are jockeying for seeding while Miami just strung together four wins; that’s context, not prophecy. Detroit hasn’t named a starter, but Miami goes with Adam Mazur, whose low pNERD (2.45) and modest bat-missing make this more hitter-forward than pitcher-driven. Mazur did add a sweeper this spring, so you’re watching pitch design collide with a lineup carrying a 9.6% barrel rate and plus baserunning (both strong tNERD drivers). Detroit’s tNERD (7.51) pops on barrels, baserunning, and defense, but the bullpen component drags—and injuries to Kyle Finnegan and Reese Olson don’t help. Miami’s younger, lower-thump profile keeps its tNERD middling, which can still be entertaining if balls-in-play are your thing. Add it up and you get a steady mid-card: playoff-urgent Tigers trying to pressure a developing arm, with Mazur’s repertoire growth serving as the subplot while contact and baserunning carry the pace.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Detroit Tigers

Miami Marlins

Adam Mazur, Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, 8:35a

Summary

Two power-armed post‑TJ righties nudge a low‑gloss matchup into watchable: Mike Burrows vs. Cade Cavalli. If you’re tuning in, come for velocity and the kids, not fireworks.

gNERD 9.09 sits a notch below today’s average, mostly dragged by weak tNERDs, but the pitchers lift it: the average pNERD (6.81) is comfortably above today’s slate. Burrows’ inputs (xFIP- 94, mid‑90s velo, quick pace) fit a “efficient-but-short” profile, and his recent run—19 K, 5 BB in 18 IP—suggests the shape is good even if the volume isn’t. Cavalli brings upper‑90s heat and league‑average estimators (xFIP- 97) with an early-career quirk: lefties have been held in check compared with righties. Washington’s bullpen has leaked in this series, while its headliners are the rookies—Dylan Crews homered Friday and James Wood cut down the tying run at the plate—so there’s latent late‑inning volatility. Pittsburgh just snapped a seven‑game skid with an eighth‑inning rally, which at least restores basic watchability. With Keibert Ruiz sidelined (concussion), the receiving game behind Cavalli may matter at the margins. Net: pitcher‑forward, mid‑card viewing—worth a look if you like heat, whiffs, and prospect cameos.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01 rating)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Washington Nationals

Mike Burrows, Pittsburgh Pirates

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

A mid-tier gNERD with late-inning upside: think quick-working starters, a live baserunning game, and a Twins bullpen that turns every seventh inning into a decision point. Arizona’s still poking at the NL wild-card door, and this is a rubber match after a 10th-inning D‑backs win, so the leverage should arrive early.

At 8.91, the gNERD sits just below today’s average and a bit under the historical median, but the ingredients are watchable: Arizona’s positive baserunning and defense meet Minnesota’s elite relief corps, which remains a strength even after yesterday’s wobble. The Twins’ bullpen was projected No. 1 back in March and still features Duran and friends, though Cole Sands wore the extra‑innings loss in the last game. Crismatt vs. Ober is confirmed, and while neither starter screams strikeout binge, both throw strikes and work fast; Crismatt’s pace/strike profile props his pNERD, and Ober’s “bad luck” label is real, with zFIP suggesting he’s pitched better than his surface results. Arizona’s side adds intrigue: Crismatt has been an unconventional but effective rotation patch, and with the D‑backs still in chase mode, Torey Lovullo won’t hesitate to mash the bullpen button if contact piles up. Net: not top-shelf by NERD, but crisp tempo plus bullpen chess makes this a solid pick.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Minnesota Twins

Nabil Crismatt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, 10:35a

Summary

Ground balls, playoff stakes, and a bullpen edge make this a quietly worthwhile watch: Valdez’s above-average pNERD meets a Braves club searching for answers. If you like contact management over fireworks, Houston’s sinker/curve artisan versus Atlanta’s skidding lineup fits the bill.

The gNERD is 8.29—below today’s average—but the components point up: Valdez’s pNERD 6.71 is buoyed by a strong xFIP- of 77, and his grounder habit pairs nicely with Houston’s positive fielding component, while the Astros’ bullpen grades well and Atlanta’s does not. On the other side, Wentz’s pNERD (2.21) and xFIP- (110) suggest fewer missed bats and longer innings, a poor matchup against an Astros club whose tNERD outpaces Atlanta’s. Houston also enters on consecutive wins and an AL West dead heat, raising the stakes; Atlanta’s slide continues, and a sweep is on the table. Jose Altuve exited the previous game with a foot issue, so monitor his status, but Houston’s depth has been doing damage anyway. Overall: not premium-tier, yet smartly watchable for Valdez’s contact suppression and the late-inning lean toward Houston.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Houston Astros

Atlanta Braves

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 11:10a

Summary

A contact-first watch with playoff gloss: Milwaukee already has a ticket punched and has piled up late-inning drama all year, so even with modest starters this one can get lively once the pens open. If you prefer balls in play, defense, and base-stealing over whiffathons, this is your lane.

The gNERD sits at 7.92—below today’s average—because the pNERD duo is underwhelming (Mikolas 1.71, Quintana -0.12), both carrying below-average xFIP- marks around 117–118 and tiny swinging-strike rates, which means contact and traffic rather than strikeouts. That dovetails with Milwaukee’s high-end tNERD (9.52), built on plus baserunning (+2.03), sturdy fielding (+0.78), and a deep bullpen (+0.99). St. Louis is more modest (tNERD 4.72) but brings good gloves (+1.08) and a capable pen (+0.66), making the late innings the likely hinge. With Jose Quintana lined up for the Brewers and Miles Mikolas for the Cards, expect the ball to be put in play—and the Brewers’ speed and relief corps to matter.

Context check: this isn’t a headline gNERD by historic standards, but Milwaukee’s already-clinched status and habit for walk-offs keep it sneaky-watchable; note also the Cardinals likely remain without Nolan Arenado (shoulder), trimming some thump.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

If you like precision, this is your stop: George Kirby’s command clinic meets the AL West race, which gives a middling gNERD a real-world jolt. Seattle’s playing for seeding while the Angels bring a contact-first craftsman in Kyle Hendricks—tilt expected, but tidy.

The model pegs this as below-average watchability (gNERD 7.82; today’s slate averages 10.45) because the Angels’ tNERD is sagging and Hendricks’ pNERD (1.76) lags well behind Kirby’s (7.27), but the stakes and styles help. Kirby’s profile—plus velocity, elite strike-throwing, and strong xFIP indicators—remains built for brisk innings, and he’s historically among MLB’s stingiest with walks, the exact sort of efficiency that compresses dead time without dulling quality. Seattle’s lineup has been timely enough during an active win streak, and the bullpen’s been close to spotless, which supports a watchable, low-chaos script if Kirby hands it over clean. On the other side, Hendricks’ sub-90 velo and rougher run estimators (xFIP- 118 in the input) dampen pNERD, but he did just spin seven scoreless to snap a personal drought—evidence the command/cambio act can still play for stretches. Net: watch for Kirby’s pace and the division context; if you’re craving back-and-forth fireworks, this likely isn’t that, but the craft is the feature.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Los Angeles Angels (2.59 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

Guardians-forward watch: crisp defense, a humming bullpen, and Slade Cecconi fresh off carrying a no-hitter into the eighth tilt this toward Cleveland’s run prevention. Chicago counters with recently recalled Yoendrys Gómez hoping the strikeouts arrive before contact finds leather.

With a gNERD of 7.38, this sits below today’s average, and the watchability gap comes mostly on the mound: Cecconi’s above-average pNERD (4.81) and near–league-average xFIP- (98) face Gómez’s low pNERD (0.72) and rough xFIP- (123). Cleveland’s tNERD edge is real: plus fielding and baserunning with a top-tier bullpen, while Chicago’s defense and running game drag, even if its bullpen is sneaky solid. Recent storylines help the Guardians’ case: they’re pressing a wild-card bid, Cecconi just flirted with history, and the bullpen has run a 1.62 ERA over its last 10 games.

If you’re here for bats, temper expectations: both lineups are light on barrels, and Chicago’s offense has been getting on without cashing in. Still, the novelty of Cecconi’s midyear emergence and Gómez’s extended look adds some scouting value, and Cleveland’s gloves plus late-inning machine give this a tidy, efficient watch rather than a slugfest.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Cleveland Guardians (2.16 rating)

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Yoendrys Gómez, Chicago White Sox

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

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Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

This grades out as today’s lowest gNERD — but a Padres playoff push plus Darvish’s late-season intrigue keep it from background-noise status. If you tune in, you’re mostly here for San Diego’s run-prevention machine rather than a strikeout duel.

With an average pNERD of 2.19 (Márquez 1.20, Darvish 3.17), this isn’t built for whiffs, which fits Márquez’s sagging SwStr% and strike rate in the inputs. The Padres’ tNERD rides a top-shelf bullpen and a strong telecast, while Colorado’s tNERD sinks under weak bats, defense, and relief work. Web-wise: the matchup is indeed Márquez vs. Darvish, and San Diego sits in solid wild-card position, adding real stakes. Darvish missed the first half with elbow trouble but has been serviceable since activation, including 5.2 innings, 3 ER, 7 K in his last turn; that plus his kitchen-sink mix is the main pitcher-side draw. Márquez was just activated after biceps issues and hasn’t exactly stabilized, which pairs poorly with a Padres lineup that just left scorch marks — and may or may not have Luis Arraez after a late freak warmup-ball exit. If you like micro-matchups: MLB notes Márquez is 11-4 lifetime vs. SD, but Manny Machado owns a .371 mark in 35 AB against him.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres

Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

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