Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on September 16, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
18.8 7:10p Philadelphia Phillies 9.1 Los Angeles Dodgers 7.3 Cristopher Sánchez 9.3 Shohei Ohtani 12.0
15.9 3:40p Chicago Cubs 10.2 Pittsburgh Pirates 3.6 Cade Horton 6.7 Paul Skenes 11.4
15.3 4:40p New York Yankees 8.1 Minnesota Twins 4.9 Cam Schlittler 8.5 Zebby Matthews 9.2
13.1 3:40p Cleveland Guardians 6.4 Detroit Tigers 7.5 Joey Cantillo 6.7 Casey Mize 5.6
12.9 4:10p San Diego Padres 7.4 New York Mets 11.7 Michael King 4.0 Clay Holmes 2.8
11.9 4:35p Toronto Blue Jays 8.3 Tampa Bay Rays 6.9 José Berríos 2.6 Ryan Pepiot 6.0
11.8 3:45p Athletics 7.3 Boston Red Sox 8.7 Jeffrey Springs 2.5 Connelly Early No data
11.7 4:40p Seattle Mariners 5.3 Kansas City Royals 4.4 Logan Gilbert 9.9 Michael Wacha 3.7
10.9 5:10p Texas Rangers 5.9 Houston Astros 5.7 Merrill Kelly 5.3 AJ Blubaugh No data
10.6 4:40p Los Angeles Angels 1.8 Milwaukee Brewers 9.5 Caden Dana No data Freddy Peralta 4.8
9.1 3:45p Atlanta Braves 2.2 Washington Nationals 1.0 Chris Sale 8.5 MacKenzie Gore 6.7
8.1 4:45p Cincinnati Reds 2.9 St. Louis Cardinals 4.5 Andrew Abbott 4.9 Michael McGreevy 3.9
7.9 6:40p San Francisco Giants 3.6 Arizona Diamondbacks 4.7 TBD No data Eduardo Rodriguez 2.6
7.6 5:40p Miami Marlins 5.3 Colorado Rockies -0.8 Eury Pérez 6.8 Kyle Freeland 3.9
7.2 4:40p Baltimore Orioles 3.1 Chicago White Sox 2.7 Dean Kremer 4.0 Shane Smith 4.7
4.8 10:05a Atlanta Braves 2.2 Washington Nationals 1.0 TBD No data Jake Irvin 1.6

Notes:

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Top watchability on the slate, and not just by gNERD: this is Ohtani’s rare-start spectacle against a legit Cy-level Sánchez one day after Philly clinched. If you like premium stuff and playoff-caliber lineups, you won’t need the skip button.

Sánchez’s pNERD (9.33) rides an ace-ish xFIP- of 69 and above-average whiffs, with 95.4 mph playing to a compact, strike-heavy approach; that pairs neatly with a Phillies tNERD buoyed by elite baserunning and real offensive value. On the other side, Ohtani’s pNERD tops today (11.97) on a nuclear combo—xFIP- 62, 98 mph, and big swing-miss—and he’s reportedly taking this one on 10 days’ rest, his first pitching start ever vs. the Phils.

Narratively, it’s rich: Philadelphia just took an extras tilt to clinch, and now gets the Ohtani once-a-week treatment the Dodgers have curated since his midyear return to the mound.

If there’s a hinge, it’s contact quality and late innings: L.A.’s lineup has been thumping of late, while its bullpen has run well, which matters if Ohtani’s workload stays short. Meanwhile the Phillies bring more speed and a top-end starter who limits damage without the gimmicks. That’s why this gNERD (18.84) is today’s ceiling and well above the historical 95th percentile.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 68.4 9.0% 8.4 6.2 27.4 $279.5M 29.5 28.0 2.92 — —
Z-score 1.03 0.38 1.22 0.29 -0.12 1.43 0.79 1.25 1.03 — —
tNERD 1.03 0.38 1.22 0.29 -0.12 0.00 0.00 1.25 1.03 4.00 9.08

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 91.6 9.9% -0.7 -4.2 51.4 $341.0M 29.6 1.0 2.45 — —
Z-score 1.38 1.12 -0.19 -0.18 1.01 2.26 0.89 0.04 0.12 — —
tNERD 1.38 1.12 -0.19 -0.18 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.12 4.00 7.31

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 69 13.4% 66.3% 95.4 mph 28 19.4s -10 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.92 1.32 1.08 0.69 -0.15 0.70 — — — —
pNERD 3.85 0.66 0.54 0.69 0.15 -0.35 0.00 0.00 3.80 9.33

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 62 14.8% 65.7% 98.0 mph 30 18.1s 27 0.0% — —
Z-score -2.34 1.99 0.78 1.88 0.38 -0.35 — — — —
pNERD 4.69 0.99 0.39 1.88 0.00 0.17 0.05 0.00 3.80 11.97

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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

If you like premium velocity and rookie bravado, this is appointment viewing: Paul Skenes’ Cy-caliber strikeout machine meets Cade Horton’s Rookie-of-the-Year bid. A gNERD of 15.93 puts this comfortably among the day’s best and even above the historical 95th percentile, with star power to match.

Skenes has crossed 200 strikeouts and sits atop the NL in Ks, pairing triple-digit heat with a FIP around the mid‑2s and a run of scoreless, shortened starts as the Pirates watch his workload; he’s also stacked a Modern Era franchise record for scoreless starts. Horton counters with mid‑90s gas and a tighter contact profile than your typical rookie; he’s a May call-up who blanked Pittsburgh in their last meeting and, while the ERA headline pops, the truer-season signal sits closer to a mid‑3s FIP. The watchability gap tilts further because Chicago brings barrels, speed, and defense (tNERD 10.24), while Pittsburgh’s bats have scraped bottom—especially versus righties—asking Skenes to do most of the lifting. If you need a recent snapshot, the Cubs just opened this series with a crisp 4–0, offering a bullpen that didn’t wobble. In short: ace-level stuff versus a lively offense, with a poised rookie trying to steal the spotlight from the league’s strikeout leader.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 62.6 9.8% 11.2 32.6 28.1 $197.7M 30.6 -7.0 3.01 — —
Z-score 0.95 1.04 1.65 1.48 -0.09 0.33 1.91 -0.32 1.22 — —
tNERD 0.95 1.04 1.65 1.48 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 4.00 10.24

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -123.7 7.8% -5.3 11.7 39.2 $88.9M 28.4 10.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -1.82 -0.61 -0.90 0.54 0.43 -1.13 -0.33 0.44 -0.74 — —
tNERD -1.82 -0.61 -0.90 0.54 0.43 1.13 0.33 0.44 0.00 4.00 3.55

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 104 11.1% 65.7% 95.7 mph 23 17.5s -39 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.18 0.23 0.80 0.83 -1.46 -0.84 — — — —
pNERD -0.35 0.11 0.40 0.83 1.46 0.42 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.66

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 74 13.7% 65.1% 98.1 mph 23 18.6s -30 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.62 1.47 0.55 1.92 -1.46 0.06 — — — —
pNERD 3.25 0.73 0.28 1.92 1.46 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 11.41

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New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Two hard-throwing rookies plus real stakes make this one easy to prioritize. The Yankees’ thunderous bats meet a Twins club fresh off a 7–0 blanking of New York, so there’s both stuff and subplot.

With a gNERD of 15.32, this grades well above today’s average and even above the 95th percentile of historical games. New York’s tNERD pops because of elite barrel rate and overall batting runs, while Minnesota’s tNERD leans on a sturdy bullpen even if the gloves and baserunning lag. On the mound, 24-year-old Cam Schlittler brings premium velocity (upper‑90s) and a better‑than‑average xFIP- (89); he’s been auditioning convincingly for a postseason role and has held opponents to one run or fewer in five of his past six.

Opposite him, Zebby Matthews pairs strike‑throwing pace with a similarly strong xFIP- (86) and has been sharper at home of late, though he’s coming off a rough turn against the Angels.

Add in Aaron Judge arriving on a Player of the Week heater, and you’ve got premium punch against two intriguing rookie profiles—watchability baked in.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

New York Yankees

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 109.7 11.7% -2.0 0.6 21.0 $290.9M 29.1 14.0 2.08 — —
Z-score 1.65 2.60 -0.39 0.04 -0.43 1.58 0.38 0.62 -0.61 — —
tNERD 1.65 2.60 -0.39 0.04 -0.43 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.00 4.00 8.10

Minnesota Twins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -11.8 8.8% -3.1 -12.8 44.4 $145.1M 28.8 20.0 2.30 — —
Z-score -0.16 0.21 -0.56 -0.57 0.68 -0.37 0.08 0.89 -0.17 — —
tNERD -0.16 0.21 -0.56 -0.57 0.68 0.37 0.00 0.89 0.00 4.00 4.88

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 89 11.7% 67.1% 97.9 mph 24 20.4s -14 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.72 0.51 1.41 1.83 -1.19 1.51 — — — —
pNERD 1.45 0.26 0.70 1.83 1.19 -0.76 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.48

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 86 12.6% 65.7% 96.3 mph 25 17.0s 37 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.90 0.94 0.81 1.10 -0.93 -1.24 — — — —
pNERD 1.81 0.47 0.40 1.10 0.93 0.62 0.05 0.00 3.80 9.18

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Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

A playoff-tinged duel with real watchability: rookie lefty Joey Cantillo comes in off eight-plus scoreless, while former No. 1 pick Casey Mize arrives off a crisp, miss-baiting turn, and it’s first-place Detroit against a Cleveland club still chasing. At a gNERD of 13.12—well above today’s average and top-quartile historically—the ingredients line up: two solid pNERDs, contrasting offenses, and real late-inning bite. Cantillo’s skill signal (xFIP- 88) tracks with that career-best outing; Mize’s profile (xFIP- 95) fits his six-inning, eight-K tune-up against New York. Detroit supplies the run-scoring juice (4.9 R/G, 187 HR), while Cleveland’s attack lags (3.9 R/G, league-worst AVG), making the matchup a classic “run prevention vs thump” watch. Cleveland’s defense and deep pen elevate the viewing floor—and with Emmanuel Clase still on paid leave, Cade Smith has capably handled the ninth. If there’s chaos, it’s likely late: Detroit’s bullpen has sprung leaks of late, including an extra-innings stumble in Miami. Layer on the stakes—Tigers atop the AL Central, Guardians within wild-card range—and this merits a spot high on your dial.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -93.4 6.7% 5.1 23.4 58.6 $102.3M 27.5 -35.0 2.16 — —
Z-score -1.37 -1.52 0.71 1.07 1.35 -0.95 -1.25 -1.57 -0.44 — —
tNERD -1.37 -1.52 0.71 1.07 1.35 0.95 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.44

Detroit Tigers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 28.5 9.5% 6.3 7.9 4.5 $148.2M 27.6 -30.0 2.74 — —
Z-score 0.44 0.79 0.89 0.37 -1.21 -0.33 -1.14 -1.35 0.69 — —
tNERD 0.44 0.79 0.89 0.37 -1.21 0.33 1.14 0.00 0.69 4.00 7.45

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 88 12.3% 62.5% 91.6 mph 25 17.7s -5 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.78 0.80 -0.63 -1.05 -0.93 -0.67 — — — —
pNERD 1.57 0.40 -0.31 0.00 0.93 0.34 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.72

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 95 10.2% 65.7% 94.7 mph 28 17.8s -2 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.36 -0.20 0.79 0.37 -0.15 -0.59 — — — —
pNERD 0.73 -0.10 0.39 0.37 0.15 0.30 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.63

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San Diego Padres @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Big bats and big bullpens, thin starters: this one’s about everything after pitch 60. With a top‑quartile gNERD (12.93), Mets star power and San Diego’s souped‑up relief corps make this a high‑leverage watch even if the first innings are bumpy.

The pNERDs are modest (King 3.98, Holmes 2.75), but the storylines aren’t: Clay Holmes is the reliever‑turned‑starter the Mets will piggyback with Sean Manaea, a deliberate move to paper over short starts in a tight wild‑card race. Michael King just came off the IL and looked serviceable (5 IP, 2 ER vs. CIN), so his stuff-vs.-rust subplot adds early intrigue. The late innings should sing: San Diego’s pen has been a feature all year and now includes 101 mph All‑Star Mason Miller alongside Robert Suárez.

On the Mets side, the tNERD heft is real—barrels and baserunning—and the lineup offers scoreboard volatility: Pete Alonso just became the franchise home‑run king, and Juan Soto has surged into the 40‑HR/30‑SB stratosphere. Net it out: above‑average gNERD driven by two watchable offenses and elite pens, with starter variance (by design, in New York) keeping the remote glued.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 12.3 7.3% 0.3 -6.4 69.1 $209.3M 30.0 12.0 3.47 — —
Z-score 0.20 -1.03 -0.03 -0.28 1.85 0.49 1.30 0.53 2.12 — —
tNERD 0.20 -1.03 -0.03 -0.28 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.53 2.12 4.00 7.36

New York Mets

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 82.4 10.6% 6.5 -1.7 44.8 $332.0M 29.7 32.0 3.32 — —
Z-score 1.24 1.70 0.92 -0.06 0.70 2.14 1.00 1.43 1.82 — —
tNERD 1.24 1.70 0.92 -0.06 0.70 0.00 0.00 1.43 1.82 4.00 11.75

Michael King, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 95 10.4% 61.6% 93.1 mph 30 18.5s -25 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.36 -0.11 -1.00 -0.36 0.38 -0.03 — — — —
pNERD 0.73 -0.05 -0.50 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.98

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 102 8.9% 62.6% 93.7 mph 32 19.1s -11 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.06 -0.82 -0.58 -0.09 0.90 0.46 — — — —
pNERD -0.11 -0.41 -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.75

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

A top-tier gNERD plus a playoff-tilting subplot make this one clickworthy. Ryan Pepiot returns from a brief “fatigue” pause with better-than-average peripherals, while Toronto brings the league’s most impactful glove work and a division lead to guard.

The model likes the watchability more for the teams than the mound duel: Pepiot’s above-average pNERD (6.04) leans on a 96 xFIP-, 95 mph heat, and a brisk pace, whereas José Berríos’ pNERD (2.60) reflects a slightly worse-than-average xFIP- (104) and less whiff. That sets up an appealing test of Pepiot’s strike-throwing against a Jays lineup that just eked out an 11-inning win here and continues to play for seeding. Toronto’s tNERD is buoyed by elite defense—FanGraphs had the Jays as runaway leaders across multiple fielding systems midseason—which pairs nicely with their contact skills and turns borderline balls into outs.

Tampa Bay’s watchability hinges on Pepiot’s feel and Junior Caminero’s chase of the Rays’ single-season HR mark, but a “punchless” offense raises the degree of difficulty. Pepiot has split two prior starts vs. Toronto, so the margin likely swings on late-game execution and Jays gloves; Bo Bichette’s knee absence is a lineup caveat.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 93.3 8.2% -5.2 38.2 27.8 $248.4M 29.6 22.0 3.10 — —
Z-score 1.40 -0.28 -0.88 1.74 -0.10 1.01 0.89 0.98 1.40 — —
tNERD 1.40 -0.28 -0.88 1.74 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.98 1.40 4.00 8.25

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -16.9 7.8% 12.1 -27.6 46.1 $89.9M 27.4 -15.0 2.27 — —
Z-score -0.23 -0.61 1.79 -1.23 0.76 -1.12 -1.35 -0.68 -0.23 — —
tNERD -0.23 -0.61 1.79 -1.23 0.76 1.12 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.94

José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 104 9.3% 63.6% 92.5 mph 31 19.7s -6 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.18 -0.63 -0.11 -0.64 0.64 0.95 — — — —
pNERD -0.35 -0.32 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.47 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.60

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 96 11.7% 64.4% 95.2 mph 27 17.9s -9 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.30 0.51 0.24 0.60 -0.41 -0.51 — — — —
pNERD 0.61 0.26 0.12 0.60 0.41 0.26 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.04

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Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

Connelly Early just punched out 11 A’s in five scoreless frames in his debut and now sees the same lineup again, which is a pretty strong hook all by itself. With both clubs carrying above‑average tNERDs and a gNERD of 11.76 that sits a tick above this slate’s average and near the historic upper quartile, this one earns a real look.

Early was summoned when Dustin May hit the IL and promptly tied the Red Sox record for strikeouts in a debut; if the whiffs carry over, the model’s zero pNERD (no data) will age quickly. Across from him, Jeffrey Springs brings a modest pNERD (2.5) with a below‑average xFIP‑ (109) here, and he just yielded five runs to Boston and is winless against them in his career, which doesn’t help the watchability from the mound. The team ingredients, though, are fun: Boston pairs thump with elite baserunning/defense and one of the league’s best bullpens, while Oakland counterpunches with real power (rookie Nick Kurtz is launching tape‑measure shots) and a relief corps that’s been excellent since the deadline. Add Oakland’s big positive “luck” signal—suggesting underperformance to date—and you’ve got a watchable mix of a breakout‑watch rookie, a lefty looking for payback, and two tNERDs that justify your attention.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Athletics

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 48.5 8.4% -1.9 -21.3 21.6 $77.1M 27.6 49.0 1.27 — —
Z-score 0.74 -0.12 -0.37 -0.95 -0.40 -1.29 -1.14 2.19 -2.19 — —
tNERD 0.74 -0.12 -0.37 -0.95 -0.40 1.29 1.14 2.00 0.00 4.00 7.34

Boston Red Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 17.8 9.4% 6.0 27.2 60.1 $191.8M 28.7 -6.0 2.47 — —
Z-score 0.28 0.71 0.85 1.24 1.42 0.25 -0.02 -0.27 0.16 — —
tNERD 0.28 0.71 0.85 1.24 1.42 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.16 4.00 8.68

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 109 11.0% 63.0% 90.7 mph 32 19.1s -7 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.48 0.18 -0.40 -1.46 0.90 0.46 — — — —
pNERD -0.95 0.09 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.50

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

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Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A high-variance watch: elite-level Gilbert and a homer‑happy Seattle lineup against a Royals club welcoming Wacha back from the 7‑day concussion IL. If you like ace vs. contact manager with playoff stakes sprinkled in, this comfortably clears the “put it on” bar.

Seattle’s gNERD sits above today’s average largely because pNERD tilts hard toward Logan Gilbert (9.92): a 64 xFIP- and plus velo, with his 2025 splitter uptick giving him another bat-missing gear. That pairs nicely with Seattle’s power (second in the AL in home runs), which boosts the M’s otherwise middling tNERD.

On the other side, Michael Wacha profiles as a watchable puzzle: below-average bat-missing and a 107 xFIP-, but he returns to the mound after the minimum and tends to live in the zone, which can keep pace moving even if punchouts don’t spike.

Kansas City’s offense has ridden defense and bullpen more than barrels (low tNERD batting components), but Bobby Witt Jr. is back from back spasms, and he and Salvador Perez have actually handled Gilbert well, adding a real counterpunch to the matchup.

Net: a solidly above-average gNERD (11.66) driven by a top-tier pNERD vs. a contact artist, plus meaningful standings context—worth your primary screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 72.8 9.4% -3.6 -22.4 31.7 $152.8M 28.2 6.0 2.35 — —
Z-score 1.10 0.71 -0.63 -1.00 0.08 -0.27 -0.53 0.26 -0.07 — —
tNERD 1.10 0.71 -0.63 -1.00 0.08 0.27 0.53 0.26 0.00 4.00 5.32

Kansas City Royals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -66.7 7.7% -4.1 11.5 36.0 $130.0M 28.8 31.0 2.11 — —
Z-score -0.97 -0.70 -0.71 0.53 0.28 -0.58 0.08 1.38 -0.54 — —
tNERD -0.97 -0.70 -0.71 0.53 0.28 0.58 0.00 1.38 0.00 4.00 4.40

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 64 15.8% 66.0% 95.4 mph 28 20.8s 28 0.0% — —
Z-score -2.22 2.47 0.94 0.69 -0.15 1.84 — — — —
pNERD 4.45 1.23 0.47 0.69 0.15 -0.92 0.05 0.00 3.80 9.92

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 107 10.1% 65.6% 93.2 mph 33 17.7s -25 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.36 -0.25 0.75 -0.32 1.16 -0.67 — — — —
pNERD -0.71 -0.13 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.67

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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Playoff stakes meet steady vs. mystery: Texas rolls out Merrill Kelly while Houston counters with rookie AJ Blubaugh—and the Astros might be patching the lineup if Yordan Álvarez’s sprained left ankle keeps him out. The gNERD 10.94 plants this around the middle of today’s slate, but the variance dial is high if the rookie holds up and Houston must win without its primary left-handed thump.

For watchability, Kelly brings skills over sizzle: a better-than-average xFIP- (91), lots of strikes, and few free passes (~2.5 BB/9), the kind of profile that travels in a hitter’s park; since Texas acquired him at the deadline, he’s kept them in games and just helped cap a sweep last week. Blubaugh is the wild card—limited major-league track record, bounced between Sugar Land and Houston, and now asked to navigate a contact-heavy lineup; the novelty factor is real, the data less so.

NERD tilts the subplots: Houston rates well for run prevention thanks to a sturdy bullpen and defense, while Texas brings plus baserunning and gloves. With the division and wild-card margins razor-thin after Houston’s series-opening win—and Álvarez headed for imaging—every pitch has leverage, and Blubaugh’s first trip through a deep order could decide whether this plays like a crisp Kelly showcase or a bullpen relay.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

Texas Rangers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -42.2 8.6% 7.8 22.9 35.5 $219.7M 30.4 -26.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.61 0.05 1.12 1.05 0.26 0.63 1.71 -1.17 -0.74 — —
tNERD -0.61 0.05 1.12 1.05 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.87

Houston Astros

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -0.1 7.9% -6.0 17.7 52.0 $221.9M 29.0 30.0 2.17 — —
Z-score 0.02 -0.53 -1.00 0.81 1.04 0.66 0.28 1.34 -0.42 — —
tNERD 0.02 -0.53 -1.00 0.81 1.04 0.00 0.00 1.34 0.00 4.00 5.67

Merrill Kelly, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 91 10.6% 65.4% 92.0 mph 36 18.5s -15 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.60 -0.01 0.65 -0.87 1.95 -0.03 — — — —
pNERD 1.21 -0.01 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.34

AJ Blubaugh, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Milwaukee offers the known joy: Freddy Peralta’s bat-missing paired with a fast, tidy club; the Angels counter with the unknown: 21-year-old Caden Dana, a top prospect with almost no big‑league track record. If you like whiffs and a track meet, lean Brewers; if you like volatility, Dana’s mystery box versus a contender is your hook.

The gNERD (10.56) sits a tick above the historic median and roughly middle of today’s slate, and the reason is mostly Milwaukee’s big tNERD (9.53): they run and defend, and even with a bruised pitching staff they’ve stayed elite. Peralta brings real swing‑and‑miss (176 K, ~10 K/9) with a run‑prevention profile supported by a mid‑3s FIP, while the Brewers have already banked a postseason berth despite injuries to José Quintana and closer Trevor Megill.

L.A.’s tNERD (1.75) drags: the offense hits .228 but does supply damage (near‑200 homers), and the defense and bullpen have leaked runs, an entertaining recipe if you enjoy chaos. They’re also shorthanded, with Logan O’Hoppe on the 7‑day concussion IL and Jorge Soler shifted to the 60‑day.

Net: watch for Peralta carving while Milwaukee’s legs pressure a shaky Angels unit, with the side plot of Dana auditioning for 2026. That combination makes this solidly watchable even without ace‑vs‑ace sizzle.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -47.6 10.7% 1.1 -51.7 -1.9 $203.8M 29.2 -16.0 2.59 — —
Z-score -0.69 1.78 0.09 -2.32 -1.51 0.41 0.49 -0.72 0.40 — —
tNERD -0.69 1.78 0.09 -2.32 -1.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 4.00 1.75

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 56.3 6.6% 13.5 15.9 52.3 $112.2M 27.6 -30.0 2.66 — —
Z-score 0.86 -1.60 2.00 0.73 1.05 -0.82 -1.14 -1.35 0.53 — —
tNERD 0.86 -1.60 2.00 0.73 1.05 0.82 1.14 0.00 0.53 4.00 9.53

Caden Dana, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 95 12.5% 61.1% 94.9 mph 29 18.5s -31 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.36 0.89 -1.22 0.46 0.11 -0.03 — — — —
pNERD 0.73 0.45 -0.61 0.46 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.83

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Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

Two whiffy lefties carry this one: Chris Sale’s post‑IL strikeout machine vs. MacKenzie Gore’s high‑octane return, with a doubleheader’s thin bullpens lurking. It grades just below today’s average gNERD because the teams drag, but the pitchers push it into “worth a look” territory.

Sale (141 K in 107 IP) has looked like himself since returning on August 30—nine punchouts in his homecoming—exactly the kind of bat‑missing profile that props up this matchup. Gore’s 177 strikeouts in 152.1 IP underscore the stuff; he was just activated from a shoulder issue and has been hit harder since the break, but the bat‑missing tools remain. If you want bats, Matt Olson obliged in the opener with four hits and a three‑run shot, while rookie Daylen Lile is currently Washington’s loudest bat. Washington’s staff sits near the bottom by run prevention (29th in team ERA), and Atlanta’s post‑break bullpen has wobbled, so late innings could get weird—more so in a twin bill.

Both team tNERDs are light, but the mound talent—pNERD 8.48 for Sale and 6.66 for Gore—does the heavy lifting. Net: a gNERD 9.13—below today’s 11.11—made watchable by a lefty‑lefty strikeout duel and the chance of bullpen theatrics.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -13.4 8.7% -8.4 6.3 6.3 $216.2M 29.4 9.0 2.36 — —
Z-score -0.18 0.13 -1.37 0.30 -1.12 0.58 0.69 0.40 -0.05 — —
tNERD -0.18 0.13 -1.37 0.30 -1.12 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 4.00 2.15

Washington Nationals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -42.7 7.9% -1.6 -42.3 -5.7 $115.9M 27.5 -28.0 2.00 — —
Z-score -0.61 -0.53 -0.32 -1.90 -1.69 -0.77 -1.25 -1.26 -0.75 — —
tNERD -0.61 -0.53 -0.32 -1.90 -1.69 0.77 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.96

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 74 13.7% 67.1% 94.9 mph 36 19.7s -15 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.62 1.47 1.43 0.46 1.95 0.95 — — — —
pNERD 3.25 0.73 0.72 0.46 0.00 -0.47 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.48

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 90 13.4% 62.9% 95.3 mph 26 19.2s 7 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.66 1.32 -0.44 0.64 -0.67 0.54 — — — —
pNERD 1.33 0.66 -0.22 0.64 0.67 -0.27 0.05 0.00 3.80 6.66

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Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Playoff stakes meet contact ball: Cincinnati’s push collides with St. Louis’s glove-first identity in a park that turns big flies into warnings. With a gNERD of 8.08 (below today’s average), expect craftsmanship more than spectacle—and just enough tension to keep you off the remote.

Andrew Abbott’s mid-pack pNERD (4.85) is built on strike-throwing and pace rather than whiffs (xFIP- 105, quick 17.8s tempo), which pairs with a Reds lineup light on barrels but good on the bases. Michael McGreevy’s profile is youth-and-control over strikeouts (40 K, 69 IP; excellent walk rate), and Busch Stadium suppresses homers, so contact should rule. The Cardinals have graded out as one of the better defensive units this season, a nice complement to their pitch-to-contact tendencies, though losing Masyn Winn for the year dings the infield wizardry. Nolan Arenado is back in the lineup, while Willson Contreras left the opener with biceps tightness, and Cincinnati sits two games off the final NL wild-card spot—live implications without the guarantee of fireworks. Add it up and the watchability leans on defense, bullpen competence, and late-inning leverage more than raw stuff or slug.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -49.7 7.0% 5.5 -4.9 19.4 $115.7M 28.7 -23.0 2.09 — —
Z-score -0.72 -1.27 0.77 -0.21 -0.50 -0.77 -0.02 -1.03 -0.59 — —
tNERD -0.72 -1.27 0.77 -0.21 -0.50 0.77 0.02 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.86

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -28.8 7.8% -4.1 21.1 44.4 $135.7M 28.6 -20.0 2.17 — —
Z-score -0.41 -0.61 -0.71 0.96 0.68 -0.50 -0.13 -0.90 -0.43 — —
tNERD -0.41 -0.61 -0.71 0.96 0.68 0.50 0.13 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.54

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 105 11.0% 66.0% 92.8 mph 26 17.8s -43 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.24 0.18 0.94 -0.50 -0.67 -0.59 — — — —
pNERD -0.47 0.09 0.47 0.00 0.67 0.30 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.85

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 101 7.9% 62.9% 92.5 mph 24 19.2s 6 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.00 -1.30 -0.44 -0.64 -1.19 0.54 — — — —
pNERD 0.01 -0.65 -0.22 0.00 1.19 -0.27 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.91

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San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

A real-stakes game with modest aesthetics: below-average gNERD, above-average consequences. Tune in for Eduardo Rodríguez’s rebound and Arizona’s wild-card push more than for stylistic fireworks.

At 7.93, this gNERD sits below today’s average (11.11) and under the historic median, dragged down by a low pitching component: Rodríguez’s pNERD is 2.56 and the Giants haven’t officially named a starter, though outlets list rookie Carson Seymour. Arizona just pummeled San Francisco 8-1 to jump ahead in the wild-card mix, while top Giants prospect Bryce Eldridge debuted, adding some novelty even if not yet production. Rodríguez supplies the watchability: he blanked the Giants for 6.1 innings last week and has flashed recent competence after a rocky season.

The team profiles fit the vibe. Arizona’s tNERD is buoyed by above-average bats and baserunning, while a shaky bullpen invites late volatility; San Francisco brings poor barrels and baserunning but a typically sturdy relief corps (despite a rough few days). Recent wobble isn’t destiny, but it can make for drama. If you prioritize stakes—and a lefty trying to steady a season—this nudges into your queue; otherwise, it’s a worthy second screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -13.8 7.4% -9.0 5.6 37.4 $195.3M 29.3 -18.0 3.20 — —
Z-score -0.18 -0.94 -1.47 0.26 0.35 0.30 0.59 -0.81 1.59 — —
tNERD -0.18 -0.94 -1.47 0.26 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 4.00 3.61

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 58.5 9.0% 5.1 9.5 -6.2 $189.5M 29.5 -1.0 2.19 — —
Z-score 0.89 0.38 0.71 0.44 -1.71 0.22 0.79 -0.05 -0.39 — —
tNERD 0.89 0.38 0.71 0.44 -1.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.70

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 107 9.5% 62.3% 92.0 mph 32 18.4s 9 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.36 -0.54 -0.72 -0.87 0.90 -0.11 — — — —
pNERD -0.71 -0.27 -0.36 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 3.80 2.56

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Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Eury Pérez’s upper‑90s fastball meets mile‑high air; if you like physics with your pitching, this is the stop. It’s a mid‑tier watch: one electric arm, one contact lefty, and Coors turning routine contact into not‑so‑routine outcomes. gNERD 7.6 trails today’s average, largely because Colorado’s tNERD is subterranean while Pérez (pNERD 6.76) holds a clear edge over Freeland (3.93). The hook is Pérez: 22, 97–99, back from surgery, and already flashed six scoreless with seven K in July; age and velocity carry the intrigue. Freeland lives on strikes more than whiffs and just allowed one earned in 5.2 IP to the Dodgers despite constant traffic. Coors inflates action—less break, more carry—so even a modest matchup gets louder. If you want offense, Hunter Goodman’s 30‑homer pop is the home draw, and Colorado’s league‑worst run prevention keeps the door ajar for crooked numbers. Prioritize if you’re curious how Pérez’s stuff plays at altitude; otherwise, it’s a quality second screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Miami Marlins (1.79 rating)

Miami Marlins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -31.7 7.8% -0.9 3.4 9.8 $67.3M 26.8 -5.0 1.79 — —
Z-score -0.45 -0.61 -0.22 0.17 -0.96 -1.42 -1.96 -0.23 -1.17 — —
tNERD -0.45 -0.61 -0.22 0.17 -0.96 1.42 1.96 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.31

Colorado Rockies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -160.1 7.9% -9.3 -21.6 -8.1 $125.9M 27.9 20.0 1.73 — —
Z-score -2.36 -0.53 -1.51 -0.96 -1.80 -0.63 -0.84 0.89 -1.29 — —
tNERD -2.36 -0.53 -1.51 -0.96 -1.80 0.63 0.84 0.89 0.00 4.00 -0.80

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 107 12.7% 64.5% 97.9 mph 22 19.9s 1 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.36 0.99 0.28 1.83 -1.72 1.11 — — — —
pNERD -0.71 0.49 0.14 1.83 1.72 -0.55 0.05 0.00 3.80 6.76

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 104 9.8% 67.8% 91.6 mph 32 19.0s -1 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.18 -0.39 1.74 -1.05 0.90 0.38 — — — —
pNERD -0.35 -0.20 0.87 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.93

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Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

This one’s a modest watch, but it does offer a clean look at a rookie All‑Star on the rise against a veteran coming off a scare. If you’re here for pitchers, Shane Smith’s live heater versus Dean Kremer’s steadier, contact‑oriented profile is the hook.

The gNERD is 7.24, below both today’s average (11.11) and the historical median (10.10), which fits two bottom‑tier tNERDs: Baltimore’s defense and baserunning grade out poorly, and Chicago’s bats and gloves are worse, so run prevention may look more like necessity than art. Smith’s above‑average pNERD (4.74) leans on real juice (95.6 mph) and youth, and since returning from an ankle IL stint he’s quietly rolled (3‑0, stingy run prevention in eight starts) after becoming the first rookie pitcher in Sox history to make the All‑Star team. Kremer’s pNERD (3.97) and near‑league‑average xFIP- (99) suggest competence over sizzle, and he’s been cleared after leaving his last start with forearm discomfort. Baltimore has also handled Chicago lately, including a fresh win behind power and a spotless relief bridge, so the edge tilts orange even if the spectacle doesn’t.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -21.2 9.1% -2.2 -20.5 16.8 $167.6M 29.2 -7.0 2.82 — —
Z-score -0.29 0.46 -0.42 -0.91 -0.63 -0.07 0.49 -0.32 0.85 — —
tNERD -0.29 0.46 -0.42 -0.91 -0.63 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.85 4.00 3.13

Chicago White Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -78.9 7.9% -6.3 -32.4 36.8 $79.0M 27.5 -14.0 1.82 — —
Z-score -1.15 -0.53 -1.05 -1.45 0.32 -1.26 -1.25 -0.63 -1.11 — —
tNERD -1.15 -0.53 -1.05 -1.45 0.32 1.26 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.65

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 99 10.2% 65.7% 93.1 mph 29 19.6s 11 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.12 -0.20 0.82 -0.36 0.11 0.87 — — — —
pNERD 0.25 -0.10 0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.97

Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 106 11.9% 62.8% 95.6 mph 25 19.1s -14 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.30 0.61 -0.50 0.78 -0.93 0.46 — — — —
pNERD -0.59 0.30 -0.25 0.78 0.93 -0.23 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.74

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Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 10:05a

Summary

Today’s low-NERD special is a “background-audio” kind of game: thin pitching (TBD vs. Jake Irvin) and two low-tNERD clubs, saved mostly by a peek at Washington’s kids and whether Atlanta’s bats stay noisy. If you’re triaging screens, keep this one handy but not front and center.

At 4.83, this is the lowest gNERD on the slate, and the components explain why: both teams grade below average on watchability, with Washington dragged by poor fielding and bullpen marks and Atlanta dinged by baserunning. The pitching doesn’t rescue it—Irvin’s pNERD is 1.56, backed by a contact-forward profile (xFIP- 118, very low whiff rate), while the Braves’ TBD starter gives us no modelable upside. That combination hints at balls in play over strikeouts. Recent context offers two reasons to peek: Atlanta just thumped Washington, with Olson, Acuña Jr., and Baldwin all leaving dents, and this is part of a doubleheader that could tax both pens. If you’re scouting, Daylen Lile’s surge remains real enough to sample, even if the BABIP bell will toll eventually. Also note Atlanta’s lineup is thinner with Sean Murphy on the IL.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -13.4 8.7% -8.4 6.3 6.3 $216.2M 29.4 9.0 2.36 — —
Z-score -0.18 0.13 -1.37 0.30 -1.12 0.58 0.69 0.40 -0.05 — —
tNERD -0.18 0.13 -1.37 0.30 -1.12 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 4.00 2.15

Washington Nationals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -42.7 7.9% -1.6 -42.3 -5.7 $115.9M 27.5 -28.0 2.00 — —
Z-score -0.61 -0.53 -0.32 -1.90 -1.69 -0.77 -1.25 -1.26 -0.75 — —
tNERD -0.61 -0.53 -0.32 -1.90 -1.69 0.77 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.96

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 118 7.7% 64.4% 92.2 mph 28 18.1s 16 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.02 -1.40 0.23 -0.78 -0.15 -0.35 — — — —
pNERD -2.03 -0.70 0.12 0.00 0.15 0.17 0.05 0.00 3.80 1.56

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