Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on September 17, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
16.5 7:10p Philadelphia Phillies 8.8 Los Angeles Dodgers 7.1 Jesús Luzardo 9.4 Blake Snell 7.6
15.4 4:10p San Diego Padres 7.6 New York Mets 11.7 Nick Pivetta 5.5 David Peterson 6.0
14.7 4:05p Toronto Blue Jays 8.4 Tampa Bay Rays 7.0 Kevin Gausman 5.8 Ian Seymour 8.1
13.2 4:40p Los Angeles Angels 1.7 Milwaukee Brewers 9.5 José Soriano 8.0 Brandon Woodruff 7.2
12.6 3:40p Cleveland Guardians 6.4 Detroit Tigers 7.6 Gavin Williams 5.3 Jack Flaherty 5.9
11.9 4:40p Seattle Mariners 5.2 Kansas City Royals 4.2 Bryce Miller 3.2 Cole Ragans 11.3
11.9 3:45p Athletics 7.2 Boston Red Sox 8.7 Mason Barnett No data Lucas Giolito 2.9
10.8 9:35a Chicago Cubs 10.4 Pittsburgh Pirates 3.5 Matthew Boyd 4.7 Johan Oviedo 2.9
10.6 5:10p Texas Rangers 5.8 Houston Astros 5.6 Jacob deGrom 9.6 Cristian Javier 0.2
9.2 4:40p New York Yankees 8.0 Minnesota Twins 5.0 Luis Gil 0.0 Taj Bradley 5.5
8.6 5:40p Miami Marlins 5.1 Colorado Rockies -0.9 Ryan Weathers 7.9 McCade Brown No data
8.3 12:40p San Francisco Giants 3.6 Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 Justin Verlander 3.1 Brandon Pfaadt 4.8
7.9 1:05p Atlanta Braves 2.2 Washington Nationals 0.9 Hurston Waldrep 6.5 Brad Lord 6.2
7.6 10:15a Cincinnati Reds 3.0 St. Louis Cardinals 4.6 Brady Singer 4.2 Andre Pallante 3.4
5.8 11:10a Baltimore Orioles 3.1 Chicago White Sox 2.7 Tyler Wells No data Martín Pérez 0.7

Notes:

Detail

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Two premium lefties and a lot of star wattage make this the game to prioritize. With a gNERD of 16.47—the top mark on today’s slate—this one pairs strikeout stuff with lineups that punish mistakes. Luzardo arrives sizzling after retiring 22 straight in his last start (10 K, 0 BB), while Snell’s previous turn featured 11 strikeouts over six scoreless; that’s bona fide swing-and-miss fuel for both sides. The series has already had a neon sign over it—Shohei Ohtani threw five no-hit innings and clubbed his 50th homer—though the Dodgers’ bullpen then yielded nine runs, a reminder that late innings won’t be boring. On the numbers, both pNERDs (Luzardo 9.39, Snell 7.62) sit well above today’s pitching average, and the team mix is lively: Philly’s bats/baserunning pop, L.A.’s power and relief corps usually travel. Phillies are slightly dinged without Trea Turner (hamstring), and the Dodgers remain thin at catcher with Will Smith on the IL. Postseason positioning is very much in play, so expect urgency to match the stuff.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Philadelphia Phillies (2.92 rating)

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 70.5 9.0% 7.9 5.9 25.8 $279.5M 29.5 25.0 2.92 — —
Z-score 1.04 0.41 1.15 0.28 -0.21 1.43 0.79 1.12 1.03 — —
tNERD 1.04 0.41 1.15 0.28 -0.21 0.00 0.00 1.12 1.03 4.00 8.82

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 92.5 9.9% -0.6 -4.5 46.7 $341.0M 29.6 1.0 2.45 — —
Z-score 1.36 1.16 -0.17 -0.19 0.80 2.26 0.89 0.04 0.12 — —
tNERD 1.36 1.16 -0.17 -0.19 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.12 4.00 7.11

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 80 13.3% 64.8% 96.4 mph 27 17.0s 13 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.27 1.28 0.38 1.15 -0.41 -1.24 — — — —
pNERD 2.53 0.64 0.19 1.15 0.41 0.62 0.05 0.00 3.80 9.39

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 80 15.3% 61.8% 95.2 mph 32 18.4s -14 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.27 2.23 -0.96 0.60 0.90 -0.10 — — — —
pNERD 2.53 1.12 -0.48 0.60 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.62

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San Diego Padres @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Playoff stakes, barrel bats, and a pair of better-than-average run preventers push this gNERD 15.37 matchup near the top of the watchability board. New York just tightened the wild-card race with four homers in the opener, so tonight’s Pivetta–Peterson tilt should actually hinge on whose “contact management plan” holds up.

San Diego’s case is twofold: a bullpen that rates as one of the big watch-drivers in tNERD and Nick Pivetta’s rebrand into a bat-missing, xFIP-friendly adult; he’s held opponents to a sub-.200 average this season and could become just the fourth qualified Padre to do so, and he spun seven scoreless his last time out before the relievers blinked. That’s pNERD 5.46 with a tidy 91 xFIP- backed by a relief corps that usually shortens games.

On the other side, the Mets own today’s top tNERD thanks to a barrel-happy lineup that just went deep with Brett Baty, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Cedric Mullins, while David Peterson’s profile (pNERD 5.98, xFIP- 87) and strong Citi Field ledger give New York a viable run-prevention counter.

Net-net: elite team watchability (NYM 11.74; SD 7.56), average-plus starters, and real stakes make this one worth your primary screen—even if last night’s long balls don’t predict tonight’s outcomes.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)

San Diego Padres

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 13.0 7.3% 0.3 -6.6 70.2 $209.3M 30.0 14.0 3.47 — —
Z-score 0.21 -1.00 -0.03 -0.28 1.93 0.49 1.30 0.62 2.12 — —
tNERD 0.21 -1.00 -0.03 -0.28 1.93 0.00 0.00 0.62 2.12 4.00 7.56

New York Mets

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 86.2 10.5% 6.4 -1.8 44.9 $332.0M 29.7 32.0 3.32 — —
Z-score 1.26 1.66 0.91 -0.07 0.71 2.14 1.00 1.43 1.82 — —
tNERD 1.26 1.66 0.91 -0.07 0.71 0.00 0.00 1.43 1.82 4.00 11.74

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 91 10.6% 66.1% 93.8 mph 32 18.6s -24 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.60 -0.01 0.98 -0.05 0.90 0.06 — — — —
pNERD 1.21 -0.01 0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.46

David Peterson, New York Mets

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 87 10.7% 64.7% 91.7 mph 29 17.9s 5 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.85 0.04 0.33 -1.01 0.11 -0.51 — — — —
pNERD 1.69 0.02 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.98

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:05p

Summary

A top‑shelf gNERD (14.68) meets timely stakes: Gausman’s rebound form vs. rookie Seymour’s whiffs and fast tempo, with Toronto tightening its AL East grip while Tampa stirs trouble on the bases. After two taut, review‑spiced finishes in this series, this one has “stick around to the last pitch” written on it.

The model gives Seymour the edge (pNERD 8.15 to 5.82), and his run‑prevention inputs fit that: an 82 xFIP‑, solid swing‑and‑miss, and a brisk pace that keeps the camera cutting; he’s also handled lefties well, and flashed 8‑K, scoreless‑start upside since his call‑up. Gausman counters with above‑average contact suppression (xFIP‑ 90) and, lately, results to match—the two‑hit, 9‑K shutout last week was a “yep, still that guy” reminder. Even with Bo Bichette sidelined for the rest of the regular season, Toronto’s lineup has stayed lively and Springer’s been in the middle of it during a current roll.

Stylistically, this pairs the Jays’ elite defense with the Rays’ high‑octane running and solid late‑game pen, the kind of contrast that spikes watchability even before the splitters start diving. With confirmed probables Gausman vs. Seymour and a division leader trying to bank every edge, this sits near the top of today’s slate by both numbers and narrative.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 93.8 8.2% -5.2 39.0 29.8 $248.4M 29.6 22.0 3.10 — —
Z-score 1.37 -0.25 -0.88 1.76 -0.02 1.01 0.89 0.98 1.40 — —
tNERD 1.37 -0.25 -0.88 1.76 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.98 1.40 4.00 8.37

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -18.0 7.7% 12.6 -26.9 46.3 $89.9M 27.4 -14.0 2.27 — —
Z-score -0.24 -0.67 1.87 -1.19 0.78 -1.12 -1.35 -0.64 -0.23 — —
tNERD -0.24 -0.67 1.87 -1.19 0.78 1.12 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.02

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 90 12.4% 67.3% 94.5 mph 34 20.4s -6 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.66 0.85 1.51 0.28 1.43 1.51 — — — —
pNERD 1.33 0.42 0.75 0.28 0.00 -0.76 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.82

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 82 13.5% 65.2% 91.9 mph 26 17.5s -6 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.15 1.37 0.55 -0.92 -0.67 -0.83 — — — —
pNERD 2.29 0.69 0.28 0.00 0.67 0.42 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.15

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Los Angeles Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

Two high-pNERD arms and one very clear imbalance: Woodruff’s comeback form and Milwaukee’s elite run-prevention machine versus Soriano’s power sinker backed by one of baseball’s shakiest defenses. As a watch, this rates near the top of today’s slate (gNERD 13.17), with the Brewers’ playoff-chasing buzz turning a strong pitching matchup into must-sample viewing.

Soriano (pNERD 8.0) brings 96–97 with heavy sink and grounders, more whiffs than punchouts by design; that works better when the gloves behind him cooperate, which the Angels’ haven’t—Statcast pegs them at the bottom by OAA, a bad fit for a contact-heavy plan. Woodruff (pNERD 7.2) has looked like, well, Woodruff again after his July 6 return from shoulder surgery, missing bats and limiting damage while fueling the Brewers’ best-in-MLB surge.

The team split here is stark: Milwaukee’s top-tier bullpen and aggressive baserunning (double-digit BsR) tilt late innings their way, while the Angels’ bullpen/defense drag their tNERD down near the floor. And the backdrop matters: the Brewers already clinched and are jockeying for the top seed, and they just opened this series by thumping the Angels behind Freddy Peralta.

Net: a legitimate pitcher-forward watch—especially early—where Milwaukee’s run game and pen raise the entertainment ceiling if Woodruff and Soriano trade zeros.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)

Los Angeles Angels

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -52.0 10.6% 1.0 -51.8 -1.4 $203.8M 29.2 -17.0 2.59 — —
Z-score -0.73 1.74 0.08 -2.31 -1.52 0.41 0.49 -0.77 0.40 — —
tNERD -0.73 1.74 0.08 -2.31 -1.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 4.00 1.66

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 60.3 6.5% 13.4 15.8 52.1 $112.2M 27.6 -30.0 2.66 — —
Z-score 0.89 -1.66 2.00 0.72 1.06 -0.82 -1.14 -1.36 0.53 — —
tNERD 0.89 -1.66 2.00 0.72 1.06 0.82 1.14 0.00 0.53 4.00 9.50

José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 83 11.4% 61.4% 97.3 mph 26 18.2s 16 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.09 0.37 -1.11 1.56 -0.67 -0.27 — — — —
pNERD 2.17 0.18 -0.56 1.56 0.67 0.13 0.05 0.00 3.80 8.02

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 82 11.6% 68.4% 93.1 mph 32 18.9s -3 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.15 0.47 1.99 -0.37 0.90 0.30 — — — —
pNERD 2.29 0.23 0.99 0.00 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.17

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Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Division heat plus a clean contrast in strengths makes this one screen-worthy. Gavin Williams’ power-and-ride meets Jack Flaherty’s better-than-average run estimators, while Detroit’s harder contact tries to dent Cleveland’s leather-and-bullpen edge.
Also, the Guardians just nicked an extra-innings win in Detroit and sit within touching distance of the Tigers in the AL Central, so the subtext is loud even if no one says “must-win.”

On the watchability math, a gNERD of 12.57 sits above today’s average and slightly above the 75th percentile historically, and it earns it: both clubs carry above-average tNERDs, but in different ways. Detroit’s bats and barrels skew positive, while Cleveland brings superior defense and one of the day’s better bullpens against a shakier Tigers relief corps. Williams’ pNERD (5.27) is buoyed by big velocity (96.5) even if the xFIP- (101) says “near league average,” and there’s recent, tangible matchup juice—he blanked Detroit for six in their last meeting. Flaherty counters with the better pNERD (5.86) and a strong xFIP- (87), plus five scoreless in his most recent turn.

If you like tidy pitcher-versus-lineup puzzles with real stakes, this is your midweek keeper.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)

Cleveland Guardians

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -92.8 6.6% 5.2 23.7 57.4 $102.3M 27.5 -35.0 2.16 — —
Z-score -1.32 -1.58 0.73 1.07 1.31 -0.95 -1.25 -1.58 -0.44 — —
tNERD -1.32 -1.58 0.73 1.07 1.31 0.95 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 6.41

Detroit Tigers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 27.9 9.5% 6.2 8.3 7.2 $148.2M 27.6 -28.0 2.74 — —
Z-score 0.42 0.83 0.88 0.38 -1.10 -0.33 -1.14 -1.27 0.69 — —
tNERD 0.42 0.83 0.88 0.38 -1.10 0.33 1.14 0.00 0.69 4.00 7.58

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 101 11.5% 61.2% 96.5 mph 25 19.2s -23 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.00 0.42 -1.19 1.19 -0.93 0.54 — — — —
pNERD 0.00 0.21 -0.59 1.19 0.93 -0.27 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.27

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 87 11.5% 63.8% 92.8 mph 29 18.2s 27 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.85 0.42 -0.04 -0.50 0.11 -0.27 — — — —
pNERD 1.69 0.21 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.86

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Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Cole Ragans’ return gives this one teeth: an ace-level pNERD (11.30) with elite indicators meets a Mariners lineup that just watched Cal Raleigh rewrite switch-hitter history. If you’re triaging the slate, a gNERD of 11.95—above today’s average and near the historic 75th percentile—plus a genuine comeback storyline makes this appointment viewing. Raleigh snapped Mickey Mantle’s record and Seattle pushed its win streak to 10 in the series opener, and they currently sit atop the AL West, so the stakes (and swings) are loud. Ragans is making his first big-league start since June 5 after a rotator-cuff strain; he carved in rehab and may be capped around 70–80 pitches, but his pNERD components (xFIP- 60, plus whiffs and mid‑90s heat) still scream watchability. On the other side, Bryce Miller’s pNERD (3.20) trails, yet he’s fresh off a career‑high 11 Ks, the kind of volatility that can spike a game’s fun even if his xFIP- sits on the wrong side of average. Add Seattle’s above‑average bats versus KC’s stronger glove-and-pen profile, and you’ve got a crisp contrast that should play.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)

Seattle Mariners

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 79.8 9.3% -3.5 -22.9 29.4 $152.8M 28.2 6.0 2.35 — —
Z-score 1.17 0.66 -0.62 -1.01 -0.03 -0.27 -0.53 0.26 -0.07 — —
tNERD 1.17 0.66 -0.62 -1.01 -0.03 0.27 0.53 0.26 0.00 4.00 5.24

Kansas City Royals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -69.5 7.6% -4.2 11.1 33.1 $130.0M 28.8 31.0 2.11 — —
Z-score -0.98 -0.75 -0.73 0.51 0.14 -0.58 0.08 1.39 -0.54 — —
tNERD -0.98 -0.75 -0.73 0.51 0.14 0.58 0.00 1.39 0.00 4.00 4.16

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 110 10.7% 64.1% 94.7 mph 26 20.2s 35 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.54 0.04 0.10 0.37 -0.67 1.35 — — — —
pNERD -1.08 0.02 0.05 0.37 0.67 -0.68 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.20

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 60 14.4% 65.4% 95.3 mph 27 18.0s 62 0.0% — —
Z-score -2.47 1.80 0.67 0.64 -0.41 -0.43 — — — —
pNERD 4.94 0.90 0.33 0.64 0.41 0.21 0.05 0.00 3.80 11.30

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Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

High gNERD, low-known-quantity: Boston’s strong tNERD carries the card while the mound matchup pits a recently-returned Lucas Giolito against Oakland rookie Mason Barnett’s volatility. If you like good defense, a real bullpen, and the possibility of a rookie popping, this is worth a click.

gNERD sits comfortably above today’s average, and that’s mostly the teams: Boston’s tNERD pops thanks to plus defense, baserunning, and a legit late-inning crew, while the pitching side lags with a below-average pNERD pairing. Giolito is back and looked workable last time out (5.2 IP, 6 K vs. the Yankees), which fits his “near-league-average peripherals, respectable whiffs” profile and should keep things tidy if he throws strikes. On the other side, Barnett’s pNERD is zero only because the sample is newborn; he flashed real bat-missing in his first win (8 K) after debuting late last month, the precise recipe for watchable chaos. Boston’s preview sheets even flagged this exact matchup, so the chessboard is set. If you need a bat-hook, Oakland’s Shea Langeliers has been thumping, recently touching 30 homers, which pairs nicely with Boston’s run-prevention strengths for a clean strength-on-strength watch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)

Athletics

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 43.5 8.4% -2.4 -21.7 22.8 $77.1M 27.6 50.0 1.27 — —
Z-score 0.65 -0.09 -0.45 -0.96 -0.35 -1.29 -1.14 2.25 -2.19 — —
tNERD 0.65 -0.09 -0.45 -0.96 -0.35 1.29 1.14 2.00 0.00 4.00 7.24

Boston Red Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 16.1 9.3% 5.8 27.9 61.7 $191.8M 28.7 -3.0 2.47 — —
Z-score 0.25 0.66 0.82 1.26 1.52 0.25 -0.02 -0.14 0.16 — —
tNERD 0.25 0.66 0.82 1.26 1.52 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.16 4.00 8.70

Mason Barnett, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 105 10.0% 63.7% 93.4 mph 30 19.1s -28 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.24 -0.30 -0.08 -0.23 0.38 0.46 — — — —
pNERD -0.48 -0.15 -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.90

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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

If you like a playoff-leaning lineup pressuring every inch of the field, this one’s for you: Chicago’s high-octane attack meets a Pirates club leaning on a rehabbing arm. Cubs are a win away from clinching after handing Paul Skenes a rare rough night and trimming their magic number to one, so there’s genuine stakes baked in.

gNERD sits at 10.80—slightly above both today’s average and the historical median—and it’s almost entirely team-driven: Chicago’s tNERD is a hefty 10.43 thanks to plus barrels, elite baserunning, and top-tier defense, while Pittsburgh’s 3.54 reflects a light bat and merely decent run prevention. The mound won’t sell this by itself. Matthew Boyd’s pNERD (4.70) and league-average xFIP- (100) say competence more than dominance, but his strike-throwing profile helps the pace. Johan Oviedo’s pNERD (2.93) is dragged by command (poor Strike%) despite real velocity; he’s still in the post–Tommy John, innings-managed phase, even if the surface line since returning looks shiny.

Context favors viewers who enjoy tactical baseball more than a strikeout duel: the Cubs have controlled the season series and arrive with a deep, effective bullpen, while the Pirates’ pen is solid but often asked to cover too much. If you’re sorting the slate, this is a watch for Chicago’s push and Oviedo’s ongoing comeback test.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)

Chicago Cubs

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 65.6 9.9% 10.8 32.7 30.5 $197.7M 30.6 -3.0 3.01 — —
Z-score 0.97 1.16 1.60 1.48 0.02 0.33 1.91 -0.14 1.22 — —
tNERD 0.97 1.16 1.60 1.48 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 4.00 10.43

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -127.7 7.7% -5.2 12.0 40.6 $88.9M 28.4 9.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -1.82 -0.67 -0.88 0.55 0.50 -1.13 -0.33 0.40 -0.74 — —
tNERD -1.82 -0.67 -0.88 0.55 0.50 1.13 0.33 0.40 0.00 4.00 3.54

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 100 10.6% 67.4% 93.2 mph 34 18.5s -27 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.06 -0.01 1.54 -0.32 1.43 -0.02 — — — —
pNERD 0.12 -0.01 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.70

Johan Oviedo, Pittsburgh Pirates

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 109 13.0% 59.5% 95.3 mph 27 19.9s -44 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.48 1.13 -1.95 0.64 -0.41 1.11 — — — —
pNERD -0.96 0.57 -0.97 0.64 0.41 -0.55 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.93

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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

Jacob deGrom is the reason to tune in; an Astros lineup missing Yordan Álvarez and leaning on Cristian Javier is the reason this feels more like an ace showcase than a duel. Houston just banked two tight wins in the series and is jostling near the top of the AL West race, but this matchup tilts toward “can they survive deGrom?”

On the numbers, a mid-pack gNERD 10.62 sits just below today’s average, lifted by deGrom’s hefty pNERD 9.63 and dragged by Javier’s 0.19. deGrom’s skill signals still sizzle (xFIP- 79, 97.5 mph) and he worked seven efficient innings his last time out; Javier brings a rough xFIP- 120 and one of the slower paces on the slate. Houston is listing Javier for this one after using an opener/bullpen mix earlier in the set, so expect fewer whiffs and more balls in play on his side. Texas adds watchability with plus defense and aggressive baserunning, while Houston’s pen has shouldered a lot of late innings—Bryan Abreu is closing with Josh Hader still shelved by a shoulder issue. In short: not the slate’s crown jewel, but if you like elite stuff versus a battered contender trying to cobble 27 outs, this scratches the itch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Houston Astros (2.17 rating)

Texas Rangers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -41.5 8.5% 7.4 23.6 35.9 $219.7M 30.4 -24.0 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.58 -0.00 1.07 1.07 0.28 0.63 1.71 -1.09 -0.74 — —
tNERD -0.58 -0.00 1.07 1.07 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.84

Houston Astros

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 0.0 7.9% -5.7 15.8 50.0 $221.9M 29.0 30.0 2.17 — —
Z-score 0.02 -0.50 -0.96 0.72 0.96 0.66 0.28 1.34 -0.42 — —
tNERD 0.02 -0.50 -0.96 0.72 0.96 0.00 0.00 1.34 0.00 4.00 5.58

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 79 14.2% 66.5% 97.5 mph 37 18.3s -10 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.33 1.71 1.17 1.65 2.21 -0.18 — — — —
pNERD 2.65 0.85 0.58 1.65 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 3.80 9.63

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 120 10.0% 62.1% 92.9 mph 28 20.8s -3 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.14 -0.30 -0.81 -0.46 -0.15 1.84 — — — —
pNERD -2.28 -0.15 -0.40 0.00 0.15 -0.92 0.00 0.00 3.80 0.19

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New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

Power bats and deadline subplots make this one playable even if the starters won’t win a beauty contest. The gNERD (9.24) trails both the historic median (10.10) and today’s slate average (11.00), but the Yankees’ thump versus a freshly minted Twin in Taj Bradley keeps the channel from changing.

New York’s offense is the watch here: a 11.6% barrel rate and +113 batting runs in the model meet Bradley, the former Ray acquired for Griffin Jax, who’s still settling in after a rocky Twins debut but brings mid‑90s heat. Meanwhile, this series already produced a 10–9 track meet that required David Bednar to slam the door, a reminder that late innings could be loud again. Pitching-wise, the model is skeptical: Luis Gil’s pNERD is near zero on shaky peripherals, but he just spun six no-hit innings last week, hinting there’s upside if the fastball/slider command shows up. Minnesota’s tNERD leans on a sturdy bullpen, so if Bradley exits early, the entertainment value may actually rise as matchups tighten. Probables remain Gil vs. Bradley, with Yankees’ stakes in a live playoff race nudging the watchability meter upward.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: Minnesota Twins (2.30 rating)

New York Yankees

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 112.8 11.6% -2.1 0.7 20.1 $290.9M 29.1 13.0 2.08 — —
Z-score 1.65 2.57 -0.40 0.04 -0.48 1.58 0.38 0.58 -0.61 — —
tNERD 1.65 2.57 -0.40 0.04 -0.48 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.00 4.00 7.96

Minnesota Twins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -11.9 8.7% -2.3 -11.7 45.9 $145.1M 28.8 18.0 2.30 — —
Z-score -0.15 0.16 -0.43 -0.51 0.76 -0.37 0.08 0.80 -0.17 — —
tNERD -0.15 0.16 -0.43 -0.51 0.76 0.37 0.00 0.80 0.00 4.00 5.01

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 133 9.1% 61.1% 95.5 mph 27 18.7s -63 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.93 -0.73 -1.25 0.73 -0.41 0.14 — — — —
pNERD -3.85 -0.36 -0.63 0.73 0.41 -0.07 0.00 0.00 3.80 0.03

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 103 10.2% 62.6% 96.3 mph 24 18.6s 15 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.12 -0.20 -0.57 1.10 -1.20 0.06 — — — —
pNERD -0.24 -0.10 -0.29 1.10 1.20 -0.03 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.49

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Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Come for Ryan Weathers, stay for Coors-induced entropy. gNERD 8.58 trails today’s average, but a healthy, hard-throwing Weathers versus a raw McCade Brown at altitude raises the entertainment ceiling.

Weathers just returned from the IL and spun five scoreless frames in his first start back, with the pNERD inputs here—plus-dial velocity and a solid xFIP-—suggesting real bat-missing potential against a lineup that’s been scuffling. Meanwhile Brown is in the tryout phase; his early big-league line features a bloated WHIP and sub-2.0 K/BB, though his most recent outing was his cleanest to date. Expect variability, which at Coors usually means runs.

Team-wise, the tNERD gap tracks with reality: Miami’s youth-and-bargain build is at least watchable, while Colorado’s defense and bullpen have been rough, and the club just dropped its 110th game despite a late rally. That combo keeps the floor low but the chaos high. If you want a narrative hook, it’s Weathers auditioning for 2026 innings while trying to dodge the Coors multiplier, plus Hunter Goodman’s power giving the Rockies a puncher’s chance. Not elite by today’s slate, but volatile enough to earn your second screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Miami Marlins (1.79 rating)

Miami Marlins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -31.7 7.8% -1.4 1.7 8.8 $67.3M 26.8 -6.0 1.79 — —
Z-score -0.44 -0.58 -0.29 0.09 -1.03 -1.42 -1.96 -0.28 -1.17 — —
tNERD -0.44 -0.58 -0.29 0.09 -1.03 1.42 1.96 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.13

Colorado Rockies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -162.4 7.8% -9.2 -20.9 -7.7 $125.9M 27.9 18.0 1.73 — —
Z-score -2.32 -0.58 -1.50 -0.92 -1.82 -0.63 -0.84 0.80 -1.29 — —
tNERD -2.32 -0.58 -1.50 -0.92 -1.82 0.63 0.84 0.80 0.00 4.00 -0.87

Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 95 13.1% 64.1% 97.0 mph 25 17.6s -32 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.36 1.18 0.10 1.42 -0.93 -0.75 — — — —
pNERD 0.73 0.59 0.05 1.42 0.93 0.38 0.00 0.00 3.80 7.90

McCade Brown, Colorado Rockies

No detailed stats available

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San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p

Summary

Mid-tier gNERD, high-stakes vibes: Arizona’s wild-card chase and Brandon Pfaadt’s quietly sturdier peripherals nudge this into “keep-on” territory, while Justin Verlander’s name value hints at a cameo of vintage. A fresh D-backs walk-off and four-game roll against a reeling Giants club adds actual leverage the models don’t quite capture.

At 8.26, this sits below today’s gNERD average, and the pNERD combo is modest (Pfaadt 4.81 > Verlander 3.09), but Pfaadt’s underlying run prevention is closer to league average (xFIP- 96; FIP ~4.3) and he’s been better at home (3.66 ERA), which plays against a Giants lineup with weak barrels and baserunning in the inputs. Verlander’s xFIP- (109) trails, though his recent card includes a seven-inning, one-run turn, so there’s still the chance of a clean, efficient outing if the slider/cutter command shows up. Team tilt favors Arizona on tNERD (better bat/baserunning) and, given last night’s Carroll-led late-inning chaos, the watchability uptick likely comes after the fifth. The wrinkle: season-long inputs like a strong Giants bullpen vs. a shakier D-backs pen could invert in practice—San Francisco’s relief corps just sprung leaks in the series, so late volatility is the selling point.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)

San Francisco Giants

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -14.7 7.4% -9.1 5.3 36.7 $195.3M 29.3 -20.0 3.20 — —
Z-score -0.19 -0.92 -1.48 0.25 0.32 0.30 0.59 -0.91 1.59 — —
tNERD -0.19 -0.92 -1.48 0.25 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 4.00 3.56

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat 62.6 9.0% 5.7 11.2 -4.9 $189.5M 29.5 2.0 2.19 — —
Z-score 0.92 0.41 0.81 0.51 -1.68 0.22 0.79 0.08 -0.39 — —
tNERD 0.92 0.41 0.81 0.51 -1.68 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 4.00 5.05

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 109 11.0% 65.6% 94.1 mph 42 19.3s -14 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.48 0.18 0.77 0.09 3.52 0.62 — — — —
pNERD -0.96 0.09 0.38 0.09 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.09

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 96 9.2% 65.1% 93.4 mph 26 19.1s 28 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.30 -0.68 0.51 -0.23 -0.67 0.46 — — — —
pNERD 0.61 -0.34 0.25 0.00 0.67 -0.23 0.05 0.00 3.80 4.81

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Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 1:05p

Summary

Pitcher-forward viewing: Waldrep’s splitter-fueled breakout meets Lord’s steady swingman act, with the lineups more cameo than co-star. At gNERD 7.94—below today’s average—this is one for fans of developing arms and a single scorching bat.

Both starters sit above today’s pNERD mean (Waldrep 6.54, Lord 6.24) with xFIP- near league-average or better (97, 94). Waldrep’s last outing blew up on contact, not stuff, and his season reads better under the hood: 2.66 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, and a splitter running roughly 46% whiff. Atlanta just swept a doubleheader in D.C.; Matt Olson homered his way through and then ripped a 10th‑inning, bases‑clearing triple. Lord has toggled roles and even drew Rookie of the Year consideration, pitching to league-average, FIP-ish outcomes while limiting damage enough to keep this close. The drag is the team side: low tNERDs, with Washington’s pitching/defense bottom‑tier by results and Atlanta’s baserunning and bullpen subtracting some gloss. If you like young stuff, tune in early; if you need fireworks, Olson’s your angle.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Atlanta Braves (2.36 rating)

Atlanta Braves

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -12.1 8.6% -8.6 7.2 8.0 $216.2M 29.4 9.0 2.36 — —
Z-score -0.15 0.08 -1.41 0.33 -1.06 0.58 0.69 0.40 -0.05 — —
tNERD -0.15 0.08 -1.41 0.33 -1.06 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 4.00 2.19

Washington Nationals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -50.2 7.9% -1.5 -42.3 -5.4 $115.9M 27.5 -30.0 2.00 — —
Z-score -0.70 -0.50 -0.31 -1.88 -1.71 -0.77 -1.25 -1.36 -0.75 — —
tNERD -0.70 -0.50 -0.31 -1.88 -1.71 0.77 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.91

Hurston Waldrep, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 97 11.0% 60.9% 95.9 mph 23 17.4s -32 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.24 0.18 -1.33 0.92 -1.46 -0.91 — — — —
pNERD 0.49 0.09 -0.67 0.92 1.46 0.46 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.54

Brad Lord, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 94 9.5% 64.3% 94.8 mph 25 17.6s 5 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.42 -0.54 0.17 0.41 -0.93 -0.75 — — — —
pNERD 0.85 -0.27 0.09 0.41 0.93 0.38 0.05 0.00 3.80 6.24

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Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals, 10:15a

Summary

A middling gNERD, elevated by stakes and style: the Reds’ playoff chase meets the Cardinals’ glove-and-bullpen machine, with Brady Singer’s brisk pace squaring off against Andre Pallante’s contact gamble. If you like tempo contrasts and defense mattering, this quietly works.

At 7.64, the gNERD sits below both today’s average (11.00) and the historical median, so raw aesthetics aren’t carrying this; the intrigue comes from a wild‑card hunt that still has oxygen for both clubs. St. Louis’ recently reinforced lineup (Nolan Arenado back; Willson Contreras expected) helps the watchability floor, while Cincinnati’s kids keep adding juice. Singer’s pNERD (4.25) tracks: league‑ish xFIP- (102) but a zippy 16.1s pace and a season’s worth of success specifically vs. the Cards, including 19 K in 18 IP, which nudges the “pitcher cam” appeal. Pallante (pNERD 3.43) brings slightly better xFIP- (99) yet fewer strikes and whiffs, meaning St. Louis will need its strengths—top‑tier defense and a solid ‘pen—to show. With both offenses light on barrels per the tNERD inputs, this profiles as grounders, gloves, and baserunning margins, with Cincinnati’s speed a potential late‑inning decider.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcast: St. Louis Cardinals (2.17 rating)

Cincinnati Reds

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -54.2 7.1% 5.7 -5.7 20.2 $115.7M 28.7 -23.0 2.09 — —
Z-score -0.76 -1.16 0.81 -0.24 -0.48 -0.77 -0.02 -1.04 -0.59 — —
tNERD -0.76 -1.16 0.81 -0.24 -0.48 0.77 0.02 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.95

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -29.9 7.8% -4.0 21.5 45.4 $135.7M 28.6 -21.0 2.17 — —
Z-score -0.41 -0.58 -0.69 0.98 0.73 -0.50 -0.13 -0.95 -0.43 — —
tNERD -0.41 -0.58 -0.69 0.98 0.73 0.50 0.13 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.65

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 102 9.7% 62.3% 92.0 mph 28 16.1s -14 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.06 -0.44 -0.69 -0.87 -0.15 -1.96 — — — —
pNERD -0.12 -0.22 -0.35 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.25

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 99 9.4% 61.0% 94.6 mph 26 20.3s 29 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.12 -0.59 -1.29 0.32 -0.67 1.43 — — — —
pNERD 0.25 -0.29 -0.64 0.32 0.67 -0.72 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.43

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Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Today’s gNERD bottoms out at 5.75, but there’s just enough novelty and potential chaos to justify a strategic channel-flip. Tyler Wells’ third start back from elbow surgery squares off with Martín Pérez’s contact-first craft while Baltimore’s kids keep auditioning and Chicago tries to stop the bleeding.

Relative to today’s slate, this is a low-watchability matchup: weak average tNERD and pNERD point to modest stuff and lineups that don’t consistently punish mistakes. Still, Wells has been crisp in a tiny sample, allowing a .146 opponents’ average and a 0.60 WHIP across 11.2 innings, and the Orioles have won his first two starts back; that “comeback curiosity” is the main pNERD hook. Baltimore was officially eliminated from the postseason, but the youth movement remains a draw, and it just powered an 8-7 win featuring Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, Gunnar Henderson, and Coby Mayo. Chicago, meanwhile, is riding a five-game skid and hands the ball to Pérez, a pitch-to-contact lefty (7.2 K/9) who’s been steady if unspectacular. If you’re here, you’re likely watching Wells’ feel returning and Baltimore’s prospects taking big-league reps; if not, expect some slop—Chicago’s defense and baserunning haven’t helped—and possibly late-inning wobble after the O’s bullpen leaked last game.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)

Baltimore Orioles

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -17.8 9.1% -2.3 -21.9 16.9 $167.6M 29.2 -5.0 2.82 — —
Z-score -0.24 0.50 -0.43 -0.97 -0.64 -0.07 0.49 -0.23 0.85 — —
tNERD -0.24 0.50 -0.43 -0.97 -0.64 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.85 4.00 3.14

Chicago White Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Constant Total
Raw stat -80.4 7.9% -6.4 -33.0 36.7 $79.0M 27.5 -16.0 1.82 — —
Z-score -1.14 -0.50 -1.07 -1.47 0.32 -1.26 -1.25 -0.73 -1.11 — —
tNERD -1.14 -0.50 -1.07 -1.47 0.32 1.26 1.25 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.65

Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles

No detailed stats available

Martín Pérez, Chicago White Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 115 7.8% 60.9% 89.7 mph 34 18.7s -36 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.84 -1.35 -1.33 -1.92 1.43 0.14 — — — —
pNERD -1.68 -0.68 -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 3.80 0.71

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