MLB: What to watch on September 18, 2025
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.7 | 10:10a | Cleveland Guardians | 6.5 | Detroit Tigers | 7.3 | Tanner Bibee | 4.1 | Tarik Skubal | 13.5 |
| 15.1 | 4:15p | Chicago Cubs | 10.5 | Cincinnati Reds | 3.0 | TBD | No data | Hunter Greene | 11.8 |
| 14.5 | 7:10p | San Francisco Giants | 3.5 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 7.2 | Logan Webb | 9.3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 9.1 |
| 13.0 | 10:10a | Toronto Blue Jays | 8.1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 7.0 | Chris Bassitt | 4.2 | Shane Baz | 6.7 |
| 12.6 | 10:35a | Athletics | 7.3 | Boston Red Sox | 8.7 | J.T. Ginn | 5.7 | Brayan Bello | 3.4 |
| 11.9 | 10:10a | San Diego Padres | 7.5 | New York Mets | 11.8 | Randy Vásquez | -0.5 | Jonah Tong | No data |
| 11.1 | 4:15p | New York Yankees | 8.1 | Baltimore Orioles | 3.4 | Max Fried | 5.2 | Cade Povich | 5.5 |
| 10.7 | 4:40p | Los Angeles Angels | 1.6 | Milwaukee Brewers | 9.6 | Yusei Kikuchi | 3.9 | Quinn Priester | 6.3 |
| 9.0 | 11:10a | Seattle Mariners | 5.2 | Kansas City Royals | 4.2 | Luis Castillo | 5.3 | Stephen Kolek | 3.4 |
| 7.1 | 12:10p | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | Colorado Rockies | -1.0 | Sandy Alcantara | 5.6 | Tanner Gordon | 4.4 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a
Summary
Tarik Skubal is appointment viewing, and the gNERD agrees: this is today’s headliner. An ace chasing hardware meets a gloves-and-bullpen outfit that can turn a 2–1 game into television, not background noise.
At 15.74, the gNERD sits atop today’s slate and above the 95th percentile of historical games, and the “why” starts on the mound: Skubal’s pNERD (13.48) towers over Tanner Bibee’s (4.12), backed by elite whiffs, strikes, velocity, and an xFIP- in the 60s. MLB’s latest poll has him as the AL Cy Young favorite, with league-best run-prevention indicators like FIP and a mountain of strikeouts. Detroit’s bats add watchability via barrels and above-average offense, while Cleveland’s profile leans the other way: light pop but plus defense and a bullpen that rates far better than Detroit’s, a recipe for late-inning leverage. The standings raise the stakes, too: Detroit leads the AL Central while Cleveland lurks a few games back and in the Wild Card chase. If Skubal shoves as expected and Bibee keeps enough traffic off base to hand it to that Cleveland pen, you get crisp pace, ace-level stuff, and meaningful innings—exactly what a top-tier gNERD promises.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcast: Detroit Tigers (2.74 rating)
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -93.0 | 6.6% | 5.5 | 25.4 | 58.0 | $102.3M | 27.5 | -35.0 | 2.16 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.32 | -1.58 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 1.32 | -0.95 | -1.25 | -1.53 | -0.44 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.32 | -1.58 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 1.32 | 0.95 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 6.54 |
Detroit Tigers
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 25.4 | 9.6% | 5.0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | $148.2M | 27.6 | -28.0 | 2.74 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.39 | 0.87 | 0.70 | 0.32 | -1.12 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -1.23 | 0.69 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.39 | 0.87 | 0.70 | 0.32 | -1.12 | 0.33 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 4.00 | 7.33 |
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 101 | 10.1% | 64.3% | 94.3 mph | 26 | 19.9s | 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.00 | -0.25 | 0.18 | 0.18 | -0.67 | 1.11 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.00 | -0.12 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.67 | -0.55 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.12 |
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 62 | 16.5% | 70.3% | 97.4 mph | 28 | 17.6s | -7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.36 | 2.82 | 2.85 | 1.60 | -0.15 | -0.75 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.72 | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.60 | 0.15 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 13.48 |
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 4:15p
Summary
Hunter Greene’s triple-digit fastball and bat-missing slider against a freshly clinched Cubs lineup is the attraction; a 15.12 gNERD rides his ace-level pNERD and Chicago’s high-tNERD offense to near-top-tier watchability. Chicago just locked a postseason spot, but Greene’s stuff is the sharper variable. Greene has lived 99–100 mph with elite miss; in 2025 his four-seamer and wipeout slider have produced hefty whiff rates and run-value gains that back the model’s love for him, not just the radar gun. Opposite him, the Cubs are lined up to start Colin Rea, a contact-leaning righty; the underlying reads (mid‑4s FIP/xFIP, sub‑20% K%) suggest fewer fireworks from the visiting mound, which only sharpens the Greene-versus-bats contrast. The team split matches the numbers: Chicago’s top-end tNERD reflects barrels, fielding, and on-the-bases action that keep innings lively, while Cincinnati’s lower tNERD tempers the chaos. With this game near the top of today’s slate and above the 95th percentile historically, the watch is Greene trying to blow past a lineup that punishes mistakes—and whether the Cubs’ depth, likely rotating pieces after clinching, can crack him before the bullpen arrives.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcast: Chicago Cubs (3.01 rating)
Chicago Cubs
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 68.4 | 9.9% | 10.7 | 32.5 | 31.7 | $197.7M | 30.6 | -3.0 | 3.01 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.59 | 1.46 | 0.06 | 0.33 | 1.91 | -0.14 | 1.22 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.59 | 1.46 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 10.45 |
Cincinnati Reds
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -54.1 | 7.1% | 5.7 | -5.4 | 21.2 | $115.7M | 28.7 | -23.0 | 2.09 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.76 | -1.17 | 0.81 | -0.22 | -0.45 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -1.01 | -0.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.76 | -1.17 | 0.81 | -0.22 | -0.45 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.01 |
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 82 | 15.5% | 68.6% | 99.5 mph | 25 | 17.2s | -15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.15 | 2.34 | 2.07 | 2.57 | -0.93 | -1.08 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.30 | 1.17 | 1.04 | 2.00 | 0.93 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 11.78 |
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p
Summary
Aces, groundballs, and a lineup with a sledgehammer—this lands near the top of the watchability board. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was one out from a no-hitter on Sept. 6 and then shoved seven-plus innings with 10 K against these Giants days ago; Logan Webb gets another crack after L.A. tagged him for six.
With both pNERDs around 9—driven by elite xFIP- marks (Webb 68, Yamamoto 73)—you’re tuning in for sequencing, sinkers, and weak contact as much as whiffs. The gNERD of 14.54 sits near the top of today’s slate (and around the 95th percentile historically), but the tilt in team watchability matters: the Dodgers’ bat-first tNERD is buoyed by real thump, including Shohei Ohtani reaching 51 homers, while the Giants’ bats and baserunning trail.
There’s recent spice, too: Patrick Bailey’s walk-off slam beat Yamamoto last week, the Dodgers just steadied a wobbly bullpen after some high-profile late-game chaos, and San Francisco still has wild-card oxygen—enough stakes to keep every pitch tense.
If you prefer contrasts, it’s groundball artisans versus a top-barrel offense; if you prefer plot twists, it’s a late-inning stress test. Either way, this grades as appointment viewing.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcast: San Francisco Giants (3.20 rating)
San Francisco Giants
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -19.7 | 7.5% | -9.2 | 5.5 | 36.6 | $195.3M | 29.3 | -25.0 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.26 | -0.84 | -1.50 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.59 | -1.10 | 1.59 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.26 | -0.84 | -1.50 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 4.00 | 3.53 |
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 92.5 | 9.9% | -0.5 | -2.2 | 47.1 | $341.0M | 29.6 | 0.0 | 2.45 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.35 | 1.12 | -0.15 | -0.08 | 0.79 | 2.26 | 0.89 | -0.00 | 0.12 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.35 | 1.12 | -0.15 | -0.08 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 4.00 | 7.15 |
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 68 | 10.7% | 65.9% | 92.6 mph | 28 | 16.4s | 13 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.00 | 0.04 | 0.91 | -0.60 | -0.15 | -1.72 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.99 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.86 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.32 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 73 | 12.5% | 64.4% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 18.5s | -10 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.69 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.64 | -0.67 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.39 | 0.45 | 0.10 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 9.07 |
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:10a
Summary
Crafty vs. electricity: Bassitt’s kitchen-sink command meets Baz’s swing-and-miss stuff in a matchup whose appeal leans on two engaging teams more than pure ace sizzle. With the AL East–leading Blue Jays visiting the speed-and-bullpen Rays at their temporary Tampa digs, expect a tight, style-contrast watch.
A gNERD of 13.01 sits well above today’s average, and the ingredients check out: Toronto’s high tNERD is built on real run creation and slick defense, while Tampa Bay counters with elite baserunning and a sturdy relief corps, the recipe for late-inning friction. Bassitt hasn’t missed many bats this year but continues to limit damage (one earned over five in his last turn), the quintessential “how did they only score one?” outing. Baz brings near-a-K-an-inning and, while volatile of late, still flashes the frontline traits that once made him a headliner.
Add context: the Jays arrive atop the division while the Rays, sub-.500, are auditioning future pieces; and the setting itself—Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ 2025 stand-in—adds novelty. Toronto’s doing this without Bo Bichette, yet the lineup’s top-tier OBP keeps traffic moving; Tampa Bay’s Fairbanks-led pen can still slam a door. If you like contrasting paths to run prevention and a plausible bullpen coin flip, this deserves your screen.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcast: Toronto Blue Jays (3.10 rating)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 89.5 | 8.2% | -5.3 | 38.2 | 29.6 | $248.4M | 29.6 | 21.0 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.31 | -0.27 | -0.90 | 1.72 | -0.04 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 1.40 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.31 | -0.27 | -0.90 | 1.72 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.13 |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -15.7 | 7.7% | 12.7 | -28.5 | 47.0 | $89.9M | 27.4 | -12.0 | 2.27 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.21 | -0.68 | 1.90 | -1.25 | 0.79 | -1.12 | -1.35 | -0.53 | -0.23 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.21 | -0.68 | 1.90 | -1.25 | 0.79 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.02 |
Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 9.9% | 63.8% | 91.6 mph | 36 | 20.5s | 5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.67 | -0.34 | -0.04 | -1.05 | 1.95 | 1.59 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.33 | -0.17 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.80 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.19 |
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 91 | 11.6% | 65.0% | 97.0 mph | 26 | 20.9s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.61 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 1.42 | -0.67 | 1.92 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.21 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1.42 | 0.67 | -0.96 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.67 |
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, 10:35a
Summary
A top‑quartile gNERD with two above‑average tNERDs and real stakes: Boston’s gloves/bullpen vs. Oakland’s recent thunder is the hook here. And there’s pitcher intrigue, with J.T. Ginn returning after a calf cramp cut short a 6‑K, 4⅓‑inning scoreless turn and Brayan Bello trying to steady things after the Yankees finally nicked him.
At 12.58, this sits above today’s gNERD average (12.08) and around the 75th percentile historically, thanks to twin tNERDs (A’s 7.33; Sox 8.68) that promise action: Boston rates well for defense and a strong pen in our model, while Oakland brings unexpectedly lively bats and a hefty positive Luck flag, i.e., some underperformance to claw back. Ginn owns the pNERD edge (5.71 to 3.44) on the strength of a better xFIP profile, while Bello—velocity intact and still a ground‑baller—had a 14‑inning scoreless run vs. New York before yielding four in five; he’s given Boston at least five frames every start since June. Boston’s lineup is lighter without rookie spark Roman Anthony (oblique, 4–6 weeks), but they’re still in the Wild Card mix, which adds urgency; meanwhile, the A’s have been launching (20 HR over their last 10). Consider it a watch for bullpen leverage, Fenway chaos, and whether Ginn’s stuff carries deep enough before Boston’s bats test it.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)
Recommended broadcast: Boston Red Sox (2.47 rating)
Athletics
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 43.1 | 8.4% | -2.3 | -20.8 | 24.4 | $77.1M | 27.6 | 51.0 | 1.27 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.64 | -0.11 | -0.43 | -0.91 | -0.29 | -1.29 | -1.14 | 2.22 | -2.19 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.64 | -0.11 | -0.43 | -0.91 | -0.29 | 1.29 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.33 |
Boston Red Sox
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 16.3 | 9.3% | 5.6 | 26.5 | 64.3 | $191.8M | 28.7 | -3.0 | 2.47 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.25 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.62 | 0.25 | -0.02 | -0.14 | 0.16 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.25 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 4.00 | 8.68 |
J.T. Ginn, Athletics
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 78 | 11.7% | 59.3% | 93.6 mph | 26 | 20.6s | 33 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.39 | 0.52 | -2.03 | -0.14 | -0.67 | 1.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.78 | 0.26 | -1.01 | 0.00 | 0.67 | -0.84 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.71 |
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 103 | 8.7% | 62.2% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 20.0s | -27 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.12 | -0.92 | -0.76 | 0.64 | -0.67 | 1.19 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.24 | -0.46 | -0.38 | 0.64 | 0.67 | -0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.44 |
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets, 10:10a
Summary
Rookie volatility in a playoff chase is catnip; this one has it. Jonah Tong has already shown both five-inning poise (winning his debut) and a 0.2-inning faceplant, while San Diego counters with Randy Vásquez and a Miller/Suarez bullpen that shortens games.
With a gNERD of 11.91, this sits roughly mid-pack among today’s games but above the historic median; the juice comes less from the starters (low average pNERD) and more from two watchable lineups and top-end relief. The Mets’ bats have thumped all year (already at 200 homers), and they’ll test Vásquez even as he rides a career‑high 9‑K start. Tong’s over‑the‑top look and riding fastball make his first trip through the order a genuine “what’s he got today?” check, but his last turn showed how quickly command wobble can snowball.
San Diego’s offense brings its own leverage—Manny Machado just hit a grand slam in this series—and if the Padres lead late, Mason Miller’s triple‑digit fastball plus Robert Suarez’s experience can turn the final frames into a closing argument.
Net: above-average watchability, powered by big bats and late-inning firepower, with real variance from Tong boosting the “don’t-change-the-channel” factor.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)
Recommended broadcast: San Diego Padres (3.47 rating)
San Diego Padres
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 17.1 | 7.3% | -0.3 | -6.3 | 69.0 | $209.3M | 30.0 | 16.0 | 3.47 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.27 | -1.01 | -0.12 | -0.26 | 1.84 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 0.69 | 2.12 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.27 | -1.01 | -0.12 | -0.26 | 1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 2.12 | 4.00 | 7.53 |
New York Mets
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 88.1 | 10.6% | 6.1 | -0.8 | 44.0 | $332.0M | 29.7 | 35.0 | 3.32 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.29 | 1.69 | 0.87 | -0.02 | 0.65 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 1.52 | 1.82 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.29 | 1.69 | 0.87 | -0.02 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.52 | 1.82 | 4.00 | 11.83 |
Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 134 | 6.7% | 63.1% | 93.1 mph | 26 | 18.3s | -43 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.99 | -1.88 | -0.36 | -0.37 | -0.67 | -0.19 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -3.99 | -0.94 | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | -0.54 |
Jonah Tong, New York Mets
No detailed stats available
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:15p
Summary
Max Fried’s Bronx-aided glow-up (velo spikes, sharper shapes) runs headlong into Cade Povich’s lefty apprenticeship—mid-pack gNERD, ace-ish intrigue. If you’re into grounders vs. barrels and a rookie trying to dodge a thump-forward lineup, this is your window.
On the model side, the gNERD sits 11.13—middling for today but a tick above the historical median—because average pNERDs (Fried 5.23, Povich 5.52) are buoyed by a stark team split: Yankees tNERD 8.08 (elite barrel rate) vs. Orioles 3.42 (shaky gloves, light bats). Fried’s skill indicators fit the watch: xFIP- 83 and a grounder-leaning profile that mutes damage when contact happens, while Povich’s xFIP- 93 and quicker pace suggest “competent with volatility.” Recent storylines add texture: Fried is up to 17 wins with a recent heater touching 99 and four quality starts in his last five, and Baltimore’s kids keep things lively—Povich just held Pittsburgh to two earned over 5⅔, and Dylan Beavers has sparked a September uptick.
Net: the Yankees’ barrel machine vs. a learning lefty is the draw; Fried’s efficiency and improved Stuff+ make the floor high, and the Orioles’ recent speed and youth keep it from feeling scripted.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcast: Baltimore Orioles (2.82 rating)
New York Yankees
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 118.9 | 11.6% | -1.9 | 0.6 | 22.2 | $290.9M | 29.1 | 13.0 | 2.08 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.73 | 2.51 | -0.37 | 0.04 | -0.40 | 1.58 | 0.38 | 0.56 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.73 | 2.51 | -0.37 | 0.04 | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.08 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -18.4 | 9.1% | -0.8 | -20.8 | 17.7 | $167.6M | 29.2 | -4.0 | 2.82 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.24 | 0.47 | -0.20 | -0.91 | -0.61 | -0.07 | 0.49 | -0.18 | 0.85 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.24 | 0.47 | -0.20 | -0.91 | -0.61 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 4.00 | 3.42 |
Max Fried, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 83 | 10.8% | 63.5% | 94.2 mph | 31 | 20.6s | -9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.09 | 0.09 | -0.17 | 0.14 | 0.64 | 1.68 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.18 | 0.04 | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.00 | -0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.23 |
Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 93 | 10.1% | 62.8% | 92.2 mph | 25 | 18.2s | 31 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.48 | -0.25 | -0.48 | -0.78 | -0.93 | -0.27 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.97 | -0.12 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.52 |
Los Angeles Angels @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p
Summary
Milwaukee’s machine is chasing the NL’s top seed while deadline pickup Quinn Priester keeps stacking Ws, and he draws Angels All-Star Yusei Kikuchi in a clean righty-lefty contrast.
It’s a mid-pack gNERD elevated by the Brewers’ elite team profile against an Angels club that brings power but little polish.
At 10.65, the game sits near the historic median and a bit below today’s average, but Milwaukee’s 9.56 tNERD does the heavy lifting: they run well (team BsR +13.5) and typically back it with a quality bullpen, even while navigating injuries to José Quintana and closer Trevor Megill. Priester’s above‑average pNERD (6.30) tracks with results: a 93 xFIP‑ and a recent franchise‑record streak of 12 straight winning decisions suggest competency over cosmetics. Kikuchi’s pNERD (3.87) is lighter, but he brings 94–95 mph and an All‑Star season’s worth of bat-missing flashes—enough to punish mistakes if Milwaukee gets too comfy. The Angels’ watchability drags via ragged defense and a shaky ’pen, though a top-quartile barrel rate means there’s always a swing or two that can flip a script. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ broader stakes—already clinched and jockeying for NL’s best record—add a little extra juice to an otherwise balanced slate.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)
Recommended broadcast: Milwaukee Brewers (2.66 rating)
Los Angeles Angels
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -54.4 | 10.7% | 0.8 | -53.5 | -1.0 | $203.8M | 29.2 | -18.0 | 2.59 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.76 | 1.77 | 0.05 | -2.37 | -1.51 | 0.41 | 0.49 | -0.79 | 0.40 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.76 | 1.77 | 0.05 | -2.37 | -1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 4.00 | 1.58 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 60.0 | 6.5% | 13.8 | 16.6 | 51.7 | $112.2M | 27.6 | -35.0 | 2.66 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.88 | -1.66 | 2.07 | 0.76 | 1.01 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.53 | 0.53 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.88 | -1.66 | 2.07 | 0.76 | 1.01 | 0.82 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 4.00 | 9.56 |
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 10.6% | 63.8% | 94.8 mph | 34 | 19.0s | -4 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.06 | -0.01 | -0.06 | 0.41 | 1.43 | 0.38 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.12 | -0.00 | -0.03 | 0.41 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.87 |
Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 93 | 10.0% | 62.9% | 93.9 mph | 24 | 16.8s | -16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.48 | -0.30 | -0.44 | 0.00 | -1.20 | -1.40 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.97 | -0.15 | -0.22 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.30 |
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a
Summary
Playoff stakes with a side of mystery: Seattle leans on Luis Castillo’s steadier skill indicators while Kansas City rolls with late-bloomer Stephen Kolek. It profiles as mid-card on watchability, but the division race and a new-ish Royals arm nudge it upward.
The gNERD is 9.03—below today’s slate average—because the pitching edge is modest: Castillo’s pNERD leads (5.32 vs. 3.36) and his xFIP- sits a tick better than league average, while Kolek grades a hair worse by xFIP- but has been stretching out effectively of late. Seattle’s bats (plus barrels) lift their tNERD, whereas KC’s offense drags, countered by competent gloves and pen; notably, a big positive “Luck” signal suggests the Royals have under-shot their underlying run profile, which adds some variance to the viewing. Castillo just logged six strong frames with five Ks in his last turn, and the stakes are real after Seattle’s long streak ended here and the Astros inched ahead in the West. Kolek, acquired at the deadline and fresh from a solid debut month, remains the wild card.
Probables: Castillo vs. Kolek; KC promoted him after the trade, and he’s been serviceable since.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)
Recommended broadcast: Seattle Mariners (2.35 rating)
Seattle Mariners
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 82.3 | 9.4% | -3.4 | -24.8 | 27.0 | $152.8M | 28.2 | 7.0 | 2.35 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.20 | 0.71 | -0.60 | -1.09 | -0.17 | -0.27 | -0.53 | 0.30 | -0.07 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.20 | 0.71 | -0.60 | -1.09 | -0.17 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.16 |
Kansas City Royals
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -64.4 | 7.7% | -4.5 | 9.6 | 32.9 | $130.0M | 28.8 | 33.0 | 2.11 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.91 | -0.68 | -0.77 | 0.44 | 0.11 | -0.58 | 0.08 | 1.44 | -0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.91 | -0.68 | -0.77 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.22 |
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 98 | 11.4% | 64.9% | 95.0 mph | 32 | 17.9s | 0 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.18 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.90 | -0.51 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.37 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.32 |
Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 7.3% | 63.3% | 93.8 mph | 28 | 17.4s | -11 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.06 | -1.59 | -0.27 | -0.05 | -0.15 | -0.91 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.12 | -0.79 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.36 |
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p
Summary
Coors roulette with a side of redemption: Sandy Alcantara’s power arm returns to altitude against a Rockies club that can’t stop bleeding runs. It’s the lowest gNERD on today’s slate, but Alcantara-at-Coors plus Colorado’s chaos factor still offers a certain rubberneck appeal.
gNERD 7.09 sits at the floor of today’s range, and the culprit is a lopsided tNERD split (MIA 5.14 vs. COL -0.97) and merely middling pNERDs (Alcantara 5.60; Tanner Gordon 4.41). Alcantara’s stuff remains loud (97.4 mph) and his xFIP- sits near league average (102), and he’s fresh off 7 innings and 8 Ks against Detroit as he continues the first full season after Tommy John, a comeback that’s a storyline unto itself. Gordon’s profile is more contact-prone (xFIP- ~102), but he did just spin six innings of one-run ball in San Diego. Colorado’s watchability drag is real: bottom-of-MLB run prevention and a staff that issues free passes, a combination that fueled yet another loss and a 41-111 mark. If you tune in, you’re betting on Alcantara’s velocity playing up at altitude and on Coors’ run environment to keep the entertainment quotient respectable despite the numbers.
(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)
Recommended broadcast: Miami Marlins (1.79 rating)
Miami Marlins
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -27.9 | 7.7% | -0.9 | 1.5 | 8.6 | $67.3M | 26.8 | -5.0 | 1.79 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.38 | -0.68 | -0.21 | 0.08 | -1.05 | -1.42 | -1.96 | -0.22 | -1.17 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.38 | -0.68 | -0.21 | 0.08 | -1.05 | 1.42 | 1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.14 |
Colorado Rockies
| Batting runs | Barrel % | Baserunning runs | Fielding runs | Bullpen runs | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -162.7 | 7.8% | -9.3 | -21.8 | -8.8 | $125.9M | 27.9 | 19.0 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.32 | -0.60 | -1.52 | -0.95 | -1.88 | -0.63 | -0.84 | 0.83 | -1.29 | — | — |
| tNERD | -2.32 | -0.60 | -1.52 | -0.95 | -1.88 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 4.00 | -0.97 |
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 9.2% | 65.7% | 97.4 mph | 29 | 18.0s | 26 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.06 | -0.68 | 0.78 | 1.60 | 0.11 | -0.43 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.12 | -0.34 | 0.39 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.60 |
Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike % | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | Constant | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 102 | 8.0% | 67.5% | 92.3 mph | 27 | 18.3s | 25 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.06 | -1.25 | 1.61 | -0.73 | -0.41 | -0.19 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.12 | -0.63 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.41 |