MLB: What to watch on September 19, 2025

• 19 September 2025
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:35p

Summary

Top gNERD on the slate, and it earns it: ace-level Garrett Crochet (pNERD 12.26, xFIP- 62) squares off with a restored Drew Rasmussen at the Rays’ temporary outdoor digs, where Boston’s elite bullpen meets Tampa Bay’s track team. If you like whiffs plus stolen-base chaos with late-inning leverage, this one checks every box. By our model this game’s gNERD is 17.32, the day’s highest and well above the historical 95th percentile, and the matchup brings real storylines with it: Crochet, now locked up long-term in Boston, has paired upper-90s heat with strike- and swing-miss rates that scream ace; Rasmussen, back from his internal-brace comeback and under a two-year deal, has been efficient more than flashy. With Sox tNERD strength coming from defense and a top-shelf bullpen, the Rays’ counter is speed; they’ve been swiping bags in bunches and just rode Chandler Simpson (and steady Yandy Díaz) in a shutout of Toronto. The venue twist matters, too: Tampa Bay is hosting at George M. Steinbrenner Field this season, adding some outdoor variability to a club built on run prevention and legs.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

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Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15p

Summary

Triple-digits versus guile: Jacob Misiorowski, the rookie who no-hit St. Louis for five innings in his debut, squares off again with Sonny Gray, who just punched out eight Brewers last week.
Milwaukee’s sprint toward the division flag meets a shorthanded Cardinals lineup, with Willson Contreras done for the year.

At a gNERD of 15.80, this lands above the 95th percentile of historical games and near the top of today’s slate, and the ingredients check out: a high-octane pNERD duel (Misiorowski 10.21; Gray 6.97) plus a large tNERD edge for Milwaukee (9.72 to 4.69). Misiorowski’s appeal is obvious—he averages 99-plus with top-of-era perceived velocity (fastball 101.3 mph; a slider that looks like mid-90s), which plays beautifully against a St. Louis offense that’s been thinning and underperforming. Gray isn’t just “veteran savvy”; his underlying run estimators have outpaced the surface, and he just held Milwaukee to two runs over five in their latest meeting, giving this real counterpunch potential. Add Milwaukee’s elite baserunning and deep bullpen (both strong tNERD components) against a Cards club trying to manufacture runs, and the watchability case is strong: power stuff, contrasting styles, and stakes. If you like velocity art, Misiorowski alone is worth the click.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 5:10p

Summary

High gNERD and real stakes: two power righties with strong pNERDs square off to break an AL West tie. Bryan Woo arrives off a career-best 13-K start, while Hunter Brown has been dealing in September, making this a pitching-forward watch.

At 13.62, this game grades in the top decile of historic gNERD and well above today’s average, driven by both arms’ xFIP- (Woo 80, Brown 76) and upper-90s velocity that should keep whiffs and called strikes flowing even if pace isn’t brisk. The watchability hook is simple: elite run prevention deciding a division race that’s currently level, with Houston missing Yordan Alvarez (ankle), thinning the lineup against Woo’s splitter/sinker mix.

Brown’s recent form (6.2 IP, 2 ER vs. ATL; 1.42 September ERA) supports the pNERD, and Houston’s defense/bullpen combo has carried weight all year, so every baserunner matters. Seattle brings punch (13 HR in its last 10) and enough bullpen to shorten the game if Woo hands off cleanly.

Translation: a top-tier gNERD duel with playoff leverage, premium stuff on both sides, and contrasting support systems—Astros’ gloves and pen vs. Seattle’s power—tilting each pitch into event television.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

Rookie Parker Messick’s quick pace and bat-dulling run prevention (xFIP- 79) meets Pablo López’s post‑IL precision, so this grades as appointment pitching, not background noise. With a 13.21 gNERD—upper quartile by the historical distribution—plus Cleveland’s run‑prevention machine and a Twins lineup that’s been lifting the ball, it’s a high‑priority watch.

Messick vs. López is the listed matchup, and the rookie has kept damage to one earned run or fewer in four of his first five MLB starts, which backs his strong pNERD (8.54) and watchable tempo. López (pNERD 5.29) was activated Sept. 5 from a teres‑major strain and should bring command and a deep changeup/fastball mix; he’s handled Cleveland reasonably well across prior meetings.

Cleveland’s appeal isn’t offense; it’s how they catch it and finish games—recently ranking near the top by bullpen FIP and grading well defensively—so a tight, low‑mistake script is very much in play. Minnesota boosts the entertainment quotient with 17 homers over its last 10 games.

If you want stakes with your stuff+, Cleveland’s surge has them within 4.5 of the AL Central lead and 2.5 of a Wild Card as of Sept. 18, while Minnesota leans on López’s return to stabilize the staff. That mix, plus contrasting pNERDs (Messick 8.54; López 5.29), justifies the lofty gNERD.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Minnesota Twins

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Pablo López, Minnesota Twins

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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Playoff math meets lefty craft: the clinched-but-still-hungry Cubs send Shota Imanaga into Great American while the Reds, two back in the wild-card chase, counter with Nick Lodolo’s sturdier underlying profile. After Hunter Greene’s one-hit opener, another tight, low-scoring tilt is very much on the table.

At 11.97, this game’s gNERD sits comfortably above today’s average, mostly because Chicago’s top-tier tNERD (barrels, clean defense, aggressive baserunning) promises action even when the ball isn’t clearing fences, while Cincinnati’s offense has been the less entertaining partner in this dance. Imanaga’s pNERD is modest: he fills the zone, but the xFIP- is a tick worse than league (106) and the long ball has been the tax—26 homers allowed and counting. Lodolo’s pNERD is stronger, with a better xFIP- (91), and he held the Cubs to one run over 6.1 the last time he saw them.

Context helps: the Cubs already punched their ticket, but the Reds are still leaning on their arms to stay in the bracket picture; that raises the pitch-by-pitch urgency, if not the raw fireworks. If you like taut lefty-versus-lefty chess with elite gloves and opportunistic baserunning, this is worth a primary screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

A strike-throwing lefty on a heater vs. MLB’s barrel kings: Trevor Rogers against the Yankees is a clean watchability hook. At gNERD 11.8—above today’s average and the historical median—this is one of the day’s better bets.

Rogers (pNERD 8.08) has leaned on a five-pitch mix and elite zone rates, with hitters flailing at his four-seam/change and a new sweeper during a months-long run. Baltimore’s lineup is lighter with Adley Rutschman on the IL, so rookie Samuel Basallo’s bat/catch combo matters more. New York’s big tNERD (7.98) is powered by top-tier barrels, and the Yankees are still chasing the division after a 7-0 opener. Will Warren (pNERD 4.47) is more volatile, but he doesn’t have to be perfect in a lineup built to punish mistakes. The Orioles’ lower tNERD (3.06) and iffy defense/pen leave a thin margin if Rogers blinks; if he shoves, we get a crisp duel. Probable: Warren vs. Rogers.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Mets-heavy watchability, rookie-flavored volatility. Brandon Sproat’s power intro (no-hit bid in his debut, six crisp in his Citi opener) meets Nationals call-up Andrew Alvarez, who debuted with five scoreless and followed with six more, so the unknowns are actually the draw.

With a gNERD of 11.38, the tilt rides New York’s top-of-today tNERD: the Mets bring barrels, baserunning and a broadcast that flat-out plays, while Washington’s tNERD lag—dragged by defense and a shaky pen—makes any deficit feel bigger. Sproat’s stuff (upper‑90s fastball with a sweeper/sinker mix) has looked like a major-league kit; tiny-sample indicators put him around a 3.5 xFIP, whereas Alvarez’s sterling run prevention so far comes with a ~4.5 xFIP flag, i.e., regression risk and ball-in-play intrigue. Add a small wrinkle: the Mets just shelved high-leverage arm Reed Garrett, nudging late-inning chaos probability upward.

Net: above the daily median and worth your time for two reasons—the Mets’ bat/pen/broadcast trifecta and the rookie-on-rookie texture. If you’re sorting the slate, this is a sensible priority: New York’s offense tests a lefty with thin MLB track record, while Sproat’s “is this real?” stuff-chase gets another data point.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Washington Nationals

New York Mets

Brandon Sproat, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Two potent lineups, one shaky bullpen, and a contact‑friendly mound matchup make this a bats‑first watch. If Philadelphia piggybacks Taijuan Walker with Walker Buehler as reported, the floor rises a touch, but Arizona’s wild‑card chase is the real hook.

With a gNERD of 10.27, this sits near the middle of today’s slate but above the historic median; the edge comes from offense and context, not aces. Philadelphia’s tNERD (8.61) reflects real punch, and the D‑backs have been a top‑five run‑scoring club with top‑five home‑run totals, so balls should fly at Chase. Arizona’s bullpen has been a sinkhole by ERA and WPA, an entertainment boon late if this stays close.

On the hill, Walker’s low pNERD (2.03) matches the inputs: a below‑average xFIP‑ (113) and minimal whiffs; Nelson (pNERD 4.82) brings league‑average run prevention under the hood (xFIP‑ ~98) with firm velocity, and he’s been on a run of quality starts. The matchup details are fun: Bryce Harper is 4‑for‑9 with a homer off Nelson, and the Phillies’ clinch means lineup depth and late‑inning offense are squarely in play.

Net: expect action more than artistry—long flies, leveragey bullpen theater, and stakes that matter in September.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Arizona Diamondbacks

Taijuan Walker, Philadelphia Phillies

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Clayton Kershaw’s announced farewell season meets his biggest foil at his final regular‑season Dodger Stadium start, which by itself bumps a mid‑tier gNERD into appointment viewing. Layer on Shohei Ohtani’s 50‑plus‑homer chase and L.A.’s shrinking NL West magic number, and you’ve got plot to go with the pitches.

The model dings this game (gNERD 9.63, below today’s average) because the pNERDs are modest: Ray 3.94 and Kershaw 3.82, with xFIP- near league average for both, so this is more craft than overpower. Kershaw’s velocity has lived around 89 and his pace is brisk; the real draw is context and résumé, including a historically stingy line against San Francisco and a sterling track record in this park. Ray’s been a successful bounce‑back for the Giants even with some recent wobble; the line (11–7) says “results,” the whiffs say “variable.” The team split is clearer: Dodgers’ high‑octane offense and stout bullpen (tNERD 7.36) versus a Giants club that brings gloves and relief but few barrels (tNERD 4.14). If you come for the duel, stay for the rivalry, Ohtani’s nightly fireworks, and a divisional race that still matters; if a pitching clinic breaks out, consider it a bonus.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Not a headliner, but there’s plenty of watchability in the contrast: the A’s bring a better bat-to-ball profile against a Pirates club that leans on defense and a sturdy pen. With Mitch Keller confirmed opposite Luis Severino, this is more about team texture than star power.

The gNERD is mid-pack at 9.43 because pNERD is light (Severino 3.0; Pirates TBD now resolved to Keller), so the onus shifts to tNERD, where Oakland (7.18) outpaces Pittsburgh (3.68). Oakland’s positive batting runs meet a Pirates lineup graded well below average by batting runs, while Pittsburgh’s fielding and bullpen grades (both positive) counter an A’s defense and relief corps that come in below water; that tug-of-war is the hook. Severino’s watchability is more sizzle than strikeouts: premium velocity and a brisk pace, but a 111 xFIP- and muted whiffs keep his pNERD modest. Keller’s profile isn’t flashy either, but he does provide competent volume, and he’s the confirmed starter here. Layer on that Pittsburgh’s offense has scuffled lately, and you’re likely choosing between run prevention and the A’s chance to push across just enough. If bullpen maneuvering and close-game run expectancy speak to you, this merits a slot; if you want ace-level stuff, keep scanning.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Athletics

Pittsburgh Pirates

Luis Severino, Athletics

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Atlanta Braves @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

A wobbling division leader hands the ball to a 41-year-old with a hammer curve, while Atlanta counters with a contact-tilted innings sponge—less sizzle than stakes, but plenty of ways for weird to break out. The gNERD is a tick below today’s average, yet Detroit’s urgency and style points keep this squarely in “don’t ignore it” territory.

Detroit’s tNERD 7.22 (well above the historical 75th percentile) is the hook: younger, faster, barrel-happy; Atlanta’s 2.55 tNERD drags via baserunning and a wobbly pen. Elder’s 4.84 pNERD reads league-ish—xFIP- 100, thin whiffs, brisk tempo—while Morton’s 3.85 is a shade worse by skills but still features ~94 and the trademark bender after a deadline move; he’s listed to start. Context matters: Cleveland just swept Detroit to chop the AL Central lead to 3.5, part of a 6-of-7 slide that makes every baserunner feel consequential. Atlanta arrives with five straight wins, but just lost high-leverage lefty Aaron Bummer to the 60-day IL, a nudge toward late-inning entropy. Elder teased a rebound (2.72 FIP over four starts) before Houston stung him, so expect contact and sequencing to matter more than punchouts. Net: gNERD 9.23 sits under today’s mean (10.73), but Detroit’s high tNERD and real playoff pressure justify a spot on your flip-card.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Atlanta Braves

Detroit Tigers

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers

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Miami Marlins @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Mahle’s back; the gNERD says “maybe,” but the storylines say “peek in.” With Texas still chasing a wild-card, Adolis García is active again while Corey Seager remains out post-appendectomy, adding just enough juice to a modest-on-paper matchup.

At 9.09, this sits a shade below today’s average, mostly because both pNERDs are muted. Miami’s Janson Junk (pNERD 4.22) brings a high strike% and near‑average xFIP- (101), and he just turned in six steady innings after a bumpy IL return, the kind of pitch‑to‑contact outing that tends to keep things moving. Texas counters with Tyler Mahle (pNERD 3.16), whose xFIP- (107) hints at some give as he makes his first start since June 10 following shoulder fatigue; command and pitch count are the swing variables. The team components nudge watchability: tNERD likes the Rangers’ fielding and baserunning, while Miami’s bullpen grades as a minus, so late-inning leverage favors Texas if the game is tight. Layer on the Rangers’ active wild-card hunt and García’s return (with Seager still shelved), and you’ve got a reasonable “second-screen” play anchored by curiosity about Mahle’s form and whether Junk’s strike-throwing can survive Texas’s gloves and legs.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Miami Marlins

Texas Rangers

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Max Scherzer’s name is big on the marquee, but the watchability here leans on Toronto’s gloves and whether a thinned Royals roster can manufacture anything against a 41-year-old ace.
If you’re hunting a pristine pitchers’ duel, look elsewhere; if you’re into a Hall of Famer managing guile while Michael Lorenzen steadies a short-handed staff, this has a certain pull.

The gNERD sits at 8.99, a shade below today’s average, because the pNERD half is modest: Scherzer’s underlying effectiveness has been middling (xFIP- 110) while Lorenzen is nearer league average (101). Toronto carries the watchability edge via tNERD, especially elite fielding value that should pop behind a fly‑ball‑tilted Scherzer. Recent context adds texture: Scherzer’s latest turn was a five-inning, two‑run outing, and the club recently nudged his schedule after some back tightness earlier this month. Toronto’s bats, though, just faceplanted in a 4‑0 dud, so style points likely come from run prevention more than fireworks. Kansas City’s depth just took another hit with Kyle Isbel and Ryan Bergert landing on the IL, which won’t help an offense already dragging in our inputs. With both clubs showing positive “luck” signals, some quiet bounce-back is plausible, but the entertainment here is more about Scherzer’s craft, Lorenzen’s competence, and the Jays’ leather than about punch‑outs galore.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Kansas City Royals

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals

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San Diego Padres @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Dylan Cease’s Chicago homecoming supplies most of the juice here; tune in for the whiffs and the awkward old‑flame reunion. He just crossed 200 strikeouts for the fifth straight year and now faces a Sox lineup hitting .199 over its last 10.

With a gNERD of 6.69—well below both today’s average and the historical median—this leans fringe‑watch unless Cease shoves; his pNERD 7.66 is backed by plus velocity and an xFIP- of 86, the clear driver of watchability. Davis Martin’s pNERD 2.80 and xFIP- 111 point to a contact‑heavier look, though he’s been steadier at home this season. Cease also enters off six efficient innings (1 R, 6 K) and, yes, this is his first start against his former club since the trade, adding a tidy narrative edge.

Team vibes don’t help: Padres tNERD is 0.00 and the White Sox sit at 2.91, but San Diego has flashed a little recent thump (13 HR in 10 games). Xander Bogaerts’ foot issue potentially trims the Padres’ contact cushion. If you’re rationing screens, make this a Cease‑centric watch: strikeouts, a reunion subplot, and just enough Padres pop to keep the remote holstered—barely.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Angels @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

If you’re watching, it’s for two things: Mike Trout hunting No. 400 in the thin air and a rookie lefty taking his first real Coors Field test. Otherwise, this profiles as today’s lowest gNERD game, with bottom-tier bats and uncertain pitching.

The model is down on it for good reason: both clubs sit near the floor in team NERD, and the average pitcher NERD is 2.30. Angels rookie Mitch Farris is at least new; he debuted well (5 IP, 1 R) before Seattle tattooed him for five in four, so intrigue beats polish. Bradley Blalock’s results have been rough — a season line around an ERA in the high eights/nines and five runs in three innings last time out — and Colorado’s staff has yielded the most homers in MLB, which at Coors is… ambitious. Trout sits on 399 career homers, and this ballpark remains the league’s friendliest for scoring, so the milestone watch is real. With the Angels’ bullpen wobbling lately (6.17 ERA over the last 10), volatility — not virtuosity — is the entertainment path. If you like messy, altitude-aided baseball and 2026 auditions, there’s a certain charm; otherwise, you can skip guilt-free.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Colorado Rockies

Mitch Farris, Los Angeles Angels

No detailed stats available

Bradley Blalock, Colorado Rockies

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