Andrew's Musings

MLB: What to watch on September 20, 2025

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Score Time (PT) Visitors Score Home Score Starter (V) Score Starter (H) Score
14.2 4:05p Boston Red Sox 8.9 Tampa Bay Rays 7.1 Kyle Harrison 8.3 Adrian Houser 4.2
14.0 1:10p Washington Nationals 1.1 New York Mets 11.6 Cade Cavalli 5.8 Nolan McLean 9.6
13.4 4:10p Toronto Blue Jays 7.3 Kansas City Royals 4.3 Shane Bieber 9.5 Noah Cameron 5.8
12.6 4:10p Seattle Mariners 5.5 Houston Astros 5.3 George Kirby 8.0 Framber Valdez 6.4
11.5 11:10a Cleveland Guardians 7.4 Minnesota Twins 5.1 Slade Cecconi 4.7 Joe Ryan 6.0
11.1 3:40p Athletics 7.3 Pittsburgh Pirates 3.7 Luis Morales 6.3 TBD No data
11.0 5:10p Philadelphia Phillies 8.5 Arizona Diamondbacks 5.0 Aaron Nola 4.3 Zac Gallen 4.1
10.5 4:15p Milwaukee Brewers 9.7 St. Louis Cardinals 4.6 Chad Patrick 4.9 Miles Mikolas 1.8
10.4 6:10p San Francisco Giants 3.8 Los Angeles Dodgers 7.4 Kai-Wei Teng 4.4 Tyler Glasnow 5.2
9.6 4:10p Cleveland Guardians 7.4 Minnesota Twins 5.1 Logan Allen 2.9 Bailey Ober 3.9
9.4 3:40p Chicago Cubs 10.4 Cincinnati Reds 3.0 Javier Assad 1.3 Zack Littell 4.3
9.1 4:05p Miami Marlins 5.3 Texas Rangers 5.6 Adam Mazur 3.5 Jack Leiter 3.8
8.7 4:05p New York Yankees 8.1 Baltimore Orioles 3.0 Carlos Rodón 4.8 Tomoyuki Sugano 1.5
8.3 10:10a Atlanta Braves 2.5 Detroit Tigers 7.1 Joey Wentz 2.5 Keider Montero 4.5
7.3 4:10p San Diego Padres 7.4 Chicago White Sox 2.8 Yu Darvish 3.6 Yoendrys Gómez 0.9
1.6 5:10p Los Angeles Angels 1.4 Colorado Rockies -0.9 Kyle Hendricks 1.9 Germán Márquez 0.9

Notes:

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4:05p

Summary

Today’s gNERD headliner (14.25) offers contrasting thrills: Boston’s quick-strike, bullpen-backed outfit vs. Tampa Bay’s run-happy chaos. With Kyle Harrison’s youthful heat and pace against Adrian Houser’s contact-management act, there’s motion baked into nearly every inning.

Harrison’s pNERD 8.35 tracks with the ingredients you want to watch—mid‑90s velocity and a brisk 16.1s tempo that keeps the camera cutting; Houser’s 4.16 and league‑average underlying run prevention (xFIP around 3.9) hint at more balls in play than whiffs. Boston’s tNERD 8.93 is powered by an elite bullpen (+1.62) and real defensive value (+1.11), the sort of leverage-and-run-prevention cocktail that tightens late frames. Tampa Bay’s tNERD 7.06 is TV‑friendly in a different way: top‑tier baserunning (+1.92) paired with shaky gloves (‑1.24) and a solid pen (+0.74) means traffic, gambles and mistakes—i.e., entertainment. Storyline spice: Boston just took the opener and has beaten Tampa Bay seven straight, while the Rays hand the ball to Houser after an uneven acclimation.

Among today’s slate (1.63–14.25), this sits on the summit; historically, it’s near the 95th‑percentile tier—worthy of your first screen.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 20.1 9.3% 6.2 24.8 65.3 $191.8M 28.7 -5.0 2.47 2.64 — —
Z-score 0.31 0.64 0.86 1.11 1.62 0.25 -0.02 -0.24 0.16 0.54 — —
tNERD 0.31 0.64 0.86 1.11 1.62 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.08 0.27 4.00 8.93

Tampa Bay Rays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -12.0 7.7% 13.2 -28.4 46.6 $89.9M 27.4 -10.0 2.27 2.10 — —
Z-score -0.15 -0.67 1.92 -1.24 0.74 -1.12 -1.35 -0.46 -0.23 -0.61 — —
tNERD -0.15 -0.67 1.92 -1.24 0.74 1.12 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.06

Kyle Harrison, Boston Red Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 98 12.8% 66.8% 95.1 mph 23 16.1s 0 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.19 1.03 1.30 0.55 -1.46 -1.96 — — — —
pNERD 0.38 0.52 0.65 0.55 1.46 0.98 0.00 0.00 3.80 8.35

Adrian Houser, Tampa Bay Rays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 101 8.6% 65.6% 94.6 mph 32 18.2s -26 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.01 -0.98 0.75 0.32 0.90 -0.27 — — — —
pNERD 0.02 -0.49 0.38 0.32 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.16

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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, 1:10p

Summary

A must-see rookie vs. a post-surgery power arm, with a win-now Mets lineup looming — this one has juice. At gNERD 14.02, it sits near the top of today’s slate and around the historic 95th percentile, so the watchability signal is loud.

Nolan McLean’s 9.64 pNERD is backed by real indicators: a tidy xFIP- (73) and brisk pace (16.8s), plus a month-old debut that’s become a 1.19 ERA run with record-setting company for a Mets rookie. Cade Cavalli (5.76 pNERD) brings 97 mph and the intrigue of a 2025 return from March 2023 Tommy John — the stuff is there, the consistency less so. The matchup itself appears set: McLean vs. Cavalli for the first time. Team-wise, the Mets’ hefty 11.59 tNERD rides thunder (barrels, batting runs) and a capable pen, while Washington’s 1.05 tNERD is dragged by defense and relief — and the Nats’ error-strewn opener didn’t help. Add stakes: New York’s in a tight wild-card race, which elevates every pitch.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Washington Nationals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -50.2 7.9% -0.6 -41.4 -6.7 $115.9M 27.5 -30.0 2.00 2.20 — —
Z-score -0.71 -0.51 -0.16 -1.81 -1.77 -0.77 -1.25 -1.38 -0.75 -0.40 — —
tNERD -0.71 -0.51 -0.16 -1.81 -1.77 0.77 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 1.05

New York Mets

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 91.0 10.6% 6.9 -1.6 44.5 $332.0M 29.7 30.0 3.32 3.05 — —
Z-score 1.35 1.71 0.97 -0.05 0.64 2.14 1.00 1.36 1.82 1.41 — —
tNERD 1.35 1.71 0.97 -0.05 0.64 0.00 0.00 1.36 0.91 0.70 4.00 11.59

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 102 11.9% 65.4% 97.1 mph 26 20.4s 10 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.05 0.60 0.65 1.47 -0.68 1.51 — — — —
pNERD -0.10 0.30 0.33 1.47 0.68 -0.76 0.05 0.00 3.80 5.76

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 73 10.1% 63.0% 95.2 mph 23 16.8s -44 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.70 -0.26 -0.40 0.60 -1.46 -1.40 — — — —
pNERD 3.41 -0.13 -0.20 0.60 1.46 0.70 0.00 0.00 3.80 9.64

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10p

Summary

Shane Bieber’s high-end pNERD (9.51) vs. a rookie revelation makes this a prime watch, especially with Toronto seeking order after Kansas City’s 27-hit, 20–1 deluge.
Noah Cameron works fast and throws strikes, and he draws a glove-forward Jays club that turns balls in play into outs.

At gNERD 13.45, this sits near the top of today’s slate and in the historical upper tier. Bieber’s profile is appointment viewing: a 65 xFIP- with a brisk pace, plus a solid track record against this opponent; he’s also the right antidote after Toronto’s bullpen absorbed the blowout while KC’s starter went 7⅔. Cameron’s rookie year has been legitimately good, and while his underlying run prevention is closer to average (xFIP- ~99), the tempo and age-driven upside keep the pNERD afloat. Toronto’s tNERD edge comes from real defense and capable bats, but they’re doing it without Bo Bichette; meanwhile, KC just lost plus-defender Kyle Isbel to the IL. Net: tune in for Bieber’s whiffs, pace from both sides, and the subplot of whether the Jays’ run prevention tidies up last night’s mess.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 84.4 8.2% -5.3 35.9 28.5 $248.4M 29.6 21.0 3.10 2.39 — —
Z-score 1.25 -0.26 -0.87 1.60 -0.11 1.01 0.89 0.95 1.40 0.01 — —
tNERD 1.25 -0.26 -0.87 1.60 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.70 0.00 4.00 7.27

Kansas City Royals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -53.9 7.6% -5.2 10.8 32.8 $130.0M 28.8 34.0 2.11 2.22 — —
Z-score -0.76 -0.76 -0.85 0.49 0.09 -0.58 0.08 1.55 -0.54 -0.36 — —
tNERD -0.76 -0.76 -0.85 0.49 0.09 0.58 0.00 1.55 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.33

Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 65 13.7% 63.2% 92.7 mph 30 16.8s 26 0.0% — —
Z-score -2.19 1.46 -0.29 -0.55 0.37 -1.40 — — — —
pNERD 4.38 0.73 -0.15 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.05 0.00 3.80 9.51

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 99 11.5% 63.0% 92.4 mph 25 16.6s -29 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.13 0.41 -0.41 -0.68 -0.94 -1.56 — — — —
pNERD 0.26 0.21 -0.21 0.00 0.94 0.78 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.78

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 4:10p

Summary

A high‑leverage AL West knife fight: a 12.6 gNERD plus Kirby’s precision vs. Valdez’s worm‑burning makes this one of today’s better watches (top‑quartile historically, above today’s average). With Yordan Álvarez on the IL and Seattle up a game after taking the opener, the edge tilts slightly M’s.

George Kirby’s 8.01 pNERD is fueled by a strong xFIP- (80) and mid‑90s velocity, and he just tied his career high with 14 K over 6.1 IP; if that command shows up again, it’s must‑see. Framber Valdez (6.42 pNERD; xFIP- 79) brings the counter: heavy grounders and, notably, excellent results against Seattle this year (13 K and a microscopic run allowance in two starts), even if his last turn was a clunker in Atlanta.

The team pieces explain the 12.6: Seattle’s bats grade out better (Batting Runs, barrel rate) while Houston’s defense and bullpen are positives; the Astros also carry a sizable “luck” bump, suggesting their results have lagged their skills. With Álvarez shelved and Isaac Paredes freshly activated, Houston’s run‑creation calculus has shifted.

Seattle leads the season series 6–5 and just blanked Houston 4–0 while Bryan Woo exited with pec tightness; recent Mariners thump (17 HR in last 10) adds some swing‑and‑miss theater to Valdez’s ground‑ball plan.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 82.9 9.3% -3.7 -24.1 29.7 $152.8M 28.2 9.0 2.35 2.52 — —
Z-score 1.23 0.64 -0.63 -1.05 -0.05 -0.27 -0.53 0.40 -0.07 0.28 — —
tNERD 1.23 0.64 -0.63 -1.05 -0.05 0.27 0.53 0.40 0.00 0.14 4.00 5.49

Houston Astros

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -3.4 7.9% -5.8 16.9 47.2 $221.9M 29.0 27.0 2.17 1.99 — —
Z-score -0.03 -0.51 -0.94 0.76 0.77 0.66 0.28 1.23 -0.42 -0.84 — —
tNERD -0.03 -0.51 -0.94 0.76 0.77 0.00 0.00 1.23 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.28

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 80 11.6% 65.2% 96.2 mph 27 19.5s 36 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.28 0.46 0.58 1.06 -0.41 0.78 — — — —
pNERD 2.56 0.23 0.29 1.06 0.41 -0.39 0.05 0.00 3.80 8.01

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 79 11.3% 64.2% 94.3 mph 31 19.8s 9 0.0% — —
Z-score -1.34 0.32 0.12 0.19 0.63 1.03 — — — —
pNERD 2.68 0.16 0.06 0.19 0.00 -0.51 0.05 0.00 3.80 6.42

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 11:10a

Summary

A high-wattage gNERD and a clean pitching contrast make this one screen-worthy: Joe Ryan’s precision vs. Slade Cecconi’s ceiling, with Cleveland’s elite gloves and bullpen ready to tip the late innings. Add a Guardians club riding an eight-game heater and chasing postseason oxygen, and you’ve got one of the day’s better watches (gNERD 11.54 sits above today’s average and near the historic top quartile).

Joe Ryan is the headliner here: a run-suppressor with bat-muting efficiency (0.97 WHIP, 174 K) and a track record this summer of throttling good lineups, which is reflected in his above-average pNERD and xFIP-related inputs. On the other side, Cecconi brings variance in the fun way: Cleveland has been tweaking his mix, and the recent evidence includes a no-hit bid into the eighth, a reminder that his stuff can carry a broadcast when it clicks. The team context nudges watchability higher: Cleveland’s defense and bullpen have graded among the league’s better units, while Minnesota’s relief/defense have lagged, a recipe for late-inning traffic. And for storyline seasoning, Cleveland arrives on an eight-game win streak after beating these Twins, which raises the stakes even if it doesn’t predict the outcome.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -90.8 6.6% 5.8 24.1 59.8 $102.3M 27.5 -33.0 2.16 3.14 — —
Z-score -1.30 -1.58 0.80 1.08 1.36 -0.95 -1.25 -1.51 -0.44 1.60 — —
tNERD -1.30 -1.58 0.80 1.08 1.36 0.95 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.80 4.00 7.36

Minnesota Twins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -13.6 8.7% -1.8 -10.3 46.8 $145.1M 28.8 17.0 2.30 2.06 — —
Z-score -0.18 0.15 -0.34 -0.44 0.75 -0.37 0.08 0.77 -0.17 -0.69 — —
tNERD -0.18 0.15 -0.34 -0.44 0.75 0.37 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.09

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 99 9.2% 64.6% 94.2 mph 26 18.7s 9 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.13 -0.69 0.31 0.14 -0.68 0.14 — — — —
pNERD 0.26 -0.34 0.15 0.14 0.68 -0.07 0.05 0.00 3.80 4.67

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 88 11.6% 65.6% 93.6 mph 29 18.6s -7 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.80 0.46 0.74 -0.13 0.11 0.06 — — — —
pNERD 1.59 0.23 0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.96

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Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Rookie heat vs. rookie volatility: Oakland’s 22-year-old Luis Morales brings 97-plus with a brisk pace; Pittsburgh is expected to counter with fellow rookie Bubba Chandler, equal parts promise and chaos. With a gNERD of 11.14—above today’s slate average and brushing the historical top quartile—this is sneaky-watchable even with the Pirates’ quiet bats.
Morales’ pNERD (6.31) sits above today’s pitcher mean; his xFIP- around 105 says “more average than shiny box-score lines,” but the fastball/age/pace combo is the hook, and he’s already shown 97–99 mph since arriving. Oakland’s card is thinner with Zack Gelof done for the year after a left-shoulder dislocation. For Pittsburgh, Chandler is the decider: rocked in his debut, then six strong with seven K the next time out, and regarded as a top-100 prospect—variance guaranteed. Given Oakland’s stronger tNERD (7.27) vs. Pittsburgh’s 3.71—and a positive bullpen component—the lean is toward Morales driving a crisp tempo; if Chandler’s better self shows, this can play like a tight, low-scoring watch rather than a slog.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Pittsburgh Pirates (2.01); radio, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.98)

Athletics

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 39.8 8.3% -1.8 -22.3 25.0 $77.1M 27.6 47.0 1.27 1.94 — —
Z-score 0.60 -0.18 -0.34 -0.97 -0.28 -1.29 -1.14 2.14 -2.19 -0.95 — —
tNERD 0.60 -0.18 -0.34 -0.97 -0.28 1.29 1.14 2.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 7.27

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -128.8 7.7% -5.5 14.2 41.3 $88.9M 28.4 12.0 2.01 1.98 — —
Z-score -1.86 -0.67 -0.90 0.64 0.49 -1.13 -0.33 0.54 -0.74 -0.86 — —
tNERD -1.86 -0.67 -0.90 0.64 0.49 1.13 0.33 0.54 0.00 0.00 4.00 3.71

Luis Morales, Athletics

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 105 9.8% 61.2% 97.2 mph 22 17.2s -32 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.23 -0.40 -1.20 1.51 -1.72 -1.08 — — — —
pNERD -0.46 -0.20 -0.60 1.51 1.72 0.54 0.00 0.00 3.80 6.31

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 5:10p

Summary

A 2023 NLCS rerun with a fresh subplot: Bryce Harper has owned Zac Gallen, and the Phillies’ offense is humming. Harper is 10-for-20 (.500) with 2 HR off Gallen, who just hit his 1,000th strikeout milestone, so there’s star-on-star tension baked in.

With a gNERD of 10.98 (above today’s average), the watchability edge leans Phillies-driven: their tNERD is high thanks to top-10 run scoring and power, and they’ve been surging since the deadline (31–15, best in MLB), plus Alec Bohm just returned and produced. Arizona’s staff owns a bottom-third ERA and a bullpen that’s been springy, including 45 losses after taking a lead. That combination sets up late-inning chaos.

On the mound, pNERD says “average-but-intriguing.” Nola’s xFIP- (93) is quietly better than his ugly season line, but his 2025 FIP around 5 and slower pace cap the aesthetic. Gallen’s been nearer league-average by xFIP-, works faster, and is fresh off a six-inning, one-run gem. If he can neutralize Harper early, Arizona’s bats (Perdomo/Marte/Carroll) keep it live; if not, Philly’s depth and baserunning tilt it.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 68.1 9.0% 7.5 4.9 27.1 $279.5M 29.5 25.0 2.92 2.69 — —
Z-score 1.01 0.39 1.06 0.23 -0.18 1.43 0.79 1.13 1.03 0.64 — —
tNERD 1.01 0.39 1.06 0.23 -0.18 0.00 0.00 1.13 0.52 0.32 4.00 8.50

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 57.0 9.0% 5.6 10.2 -3.9 $189.5M 29.5 4.0 2.19 1.92 — —
Z-score 0.85 0.39 0.77 0.47 -1.64 0.22 0.79 0.18 -0.39 -0.99 — —
tNERD 0.85 0.39 0.77 0.47 -1.64 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.02

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 93 11.3% 65.3% 91.4 mph 32 21.0s 56 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.49 0.32 0.61 -1.14 0.90 2.00 — — — —
pNERD 0.99 0.16 0.31 0.00 0.00 -1.00 0.05 0.00 3.80 4.30

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 99 9.4% 63.0% 93.6 mph 29 17.2s 11 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.13 -0.59 -0.42 -0.13 0.11 -1.08 — — — —
pNERD 0.26 -0.30 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.05 0.00 3.80 4.14

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Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15p

Summary

Slightly-above-average gNERD meets a stylistic clash: Milwaukee’s baserunning-and-bullpen machine versus St. Louis’ gloves and contact pitching. With Chad Patrick back in the rotation and Miles Mikolas on a modest run of run prevention, the question is whether the Brewers’ pressure game can crack the Cards’ leather.

At 10.50, this rates a tick above both today’s game average (10.18) and the historical median (10.10). Milwaukee’s 9.70 tNERD is built on elite baserunning (+2.08), a strong bullpen (+1.11), and solid defense (+0.77), while St. Louis’ 4.63 tNERD leans on fielding (+0.98) and relief work (+0.82) to cover for a light offense. Patrick’s pNERD 4.91 pairs near‑average run estimators (xFIP- 97) with mid‑90s velocity; he’s starting again after two relief turns. Mikolas (pNERD 1.76, xFIP- 117) won’t miss many bats, but he’s limited damage to six runs over his last 21 innings. Recent context adds some juice: St. Louis opened the series with a 7–1 thump, Willson Contreras is out for the season, and Milwaukee’s magic number is down to three despite José Quintana hitting the IL and closer Trevor Megill’s return looking uncertain. If you enjoy the chess of pressure baserunning versus pitch‑to‑contact, this is your card.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 60.2 6.6% 14.3 17.1 54.4 $112.2M 27.6 -30.0 2.66 2.56 — —
Z-score 0.90 -1.58 2.08 0.77 1.11 -0.82 -1.14 -1.38 0.53 0.37 — —
tNERD 0.90 -1.58 2.08 0.77 1.11 0.82 1.14 0.00 0.27 0.18 4.00 9.70

St. Louis Cardinals

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -27.5 7.8% -5.0 21.9 48.2 $135.7M 28.6 -17.0 2.17 2.15 — —
Z-score -0.38 -0.59 -0.82 0.98 0.82 -0.50 -0.13 -0.78 -0.43 -0.50 — —
tNERD -0.38 -0.59 -0.82 0.98 0.82 0.50 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 4.63

Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 97 10.2% 64.5% 94.1 mph 26 19.0s -11 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.25 -0.21 0.27 0.09 -0.68 0.38 — — — —
pNERD 0.50 -0.11 0.13 0.09 0.68 -0.19 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.91

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 117 7.1% 66.0% 92.7 mph 36 17.9s -2 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.96 -1.69 0.94 -0.55 1.94 -0.51 — — — —
pNERD -1.92 -0.85 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.76

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:10p

Summary

Dodgers’ thunder meets a rookie with just enough whiff to make you curious: Glasnow’s sharpened form plus L.A.’s already‑punched postseason ticket give this a sturdy floor, while Teng’s strikeout flashes offer the chaos potential. With a gNERD of 10.42—just above today’s average—this is worthy of a primary screen, if not a social‑plan canceller.

The watchability case starts with the imbalance: Dodgers tNERD is strong on bat quality and a deep bullpen, while the Giants lag in barrels and baserunning, so L.A. drives the entertainment and the scoreboard risk. Glasnow’s pNERD (5.22) pairs a healthy heater and a tidy xFIP- of 90, and he just held these Giants to one run over 6 2/3, part of a recent run of stingy contact. On the other side, Teng’s pNERD (4.36) and xFIP- (104) say “volatile mid,” but he’s flashed swing‑and‑miss with eight Ks at St. Louis and a one‑run outing at Arizona—walks being the caveat. Macro storyline bonus: the Dodgers have already clinched October, so the stars should play free and let the barrels sing, raising the aesthetic even if the suspense tilts one way.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -23.7 7.4% -9.7 7.2 37.5 $195.3M 29.3 -22.0 3.20 3.49 — —
Z-score -0.32 -0.92 -1.53 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.59 -1.01 1.59 2.34 — —
tNERD -0.32 -0.92 -1.53 0.33 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 1.17 4.00 3.84

Los Angeles Dodgers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 91.3 9.9% -0.7 -0.4 50.2 $341.0M 29.6 -2.0 2.45 2.51 — —
Z-score 1.35 1.14 -0.18 -0.00 0.91 2.26 0.89 -0.10 0.12 0.26 — —
tNERD 1.35 1.14 -0.18 -0.00 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.13 4.00 7.41

Kai-Wei Teng, San Francisco Giants

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 104 12.2% 63.5% 93.1 mph 26 18.8s 51 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.17 0.75 -0.17 -0.36 -0.68 0.22 — — — —
pNERD -0.34 0.37 -0.08 0.00 0.68 -0.11 0.05 0.00 3.80 4.36

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 90 10.9% 60.1% 95.9 mph 31 18.7s -17 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.68 0.12 -1.68 0.92 0.63 0.14 — — — —
pNERD 1.35 0.06 -0.84 0.92 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 3.80 5.22

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Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins, 4:10p

Summary

This one’s built for late innings: Cleveland brings elite gloves and a top-5 bullpen against a wobbly Twins relief corps. Add an eight-game Guardians surge and a twin bill that strains Minnesota’s ‘pen, and the advantage swings Cleveland once the starters hand it off. At 9.61, the gNERD is a tick below today’s average, powered more by team factors than the mound matchup. Cleveland’s defense and bullpen grade well, while Minnesota’s pitching has lagged. The pNERD average (3.38) says the starters are fine-not-fancy: Logan Allen (2.91; xFIP- 115, 2025 FIP 4.63) versus Bailey Ober (3.85; xFIP- 112, 2025 FIP 5.32, 2.1 HR/9). Ober did miss bats in his last turn (9 K) but still yielded four. The hook: Cleveland’s rolling and chasing spots, the Twins’ bullpen has been torched lately (10.22 ERA at home over its last 10), and Pablo López left the opener early, adding workload pressure. So: average starter sizzle, above-average chaos potential—stay for the bullpens.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -90.8 6.6% 5.8 24.1 59.8 $102.3M 27.5 -33.0 2.16 3.14 — —
Z-score -1.30 -1.58 0.80 1.08 1.36 -0.95 -1.25 -1.51 -0.44 1.60 — —
tNERD -1.30 -1.58 0.80 1.08 1.36 0.95 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.80 4.00 7.36

Minnesota Twins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -13.6 8.7% -1.8 -10.3 46.8 $145.1M 28.8 17.0 2.30 2.06 — —
Z-score -0.18 0.15 -0.34 -0.44 0.75 -0.37 0.08 0.77 -0.17 -0.69 — —
tNERD -0.18 0.15 -0.34 -0.44 0.75 0.37 0.00 0.77 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.09

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 115 7.8% 61.6% 90.6 mph 26 15.3s -7 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.84 -1.36 -1.04 -1.51 -0.68 -2.61 — — — —
pNERD -1.67 -0.68 -0.52 0.00 0.68 1.31 0.00 0.00 3.80 2.91

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 112 11.5% 67.0% 90.4 mph 29 17.5s 12 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.66 0.41 1.38 -1.60 0.11 -0.83 — — — —
pNERD -1.31 0.21 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.85

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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

gNERD says “solid,” the stakes and the stadium say “stick around.” Chicago’s high-tNERD chaos meets a homer-happy yard and a Reds lineup that just cracked five long balls while still clawing at the last NL ticket.

At 9.44, this grades mid-pack versus today and close to the historic median, but the hook is contrast: the Cubs’ tNERD is powered by barrels, baserunning and defense, while the Reds’ tNERD lags yet can spike the entertainment meter if the ball starts flying in Great American Ball Park.

Starter-side sizzle is subdued: Zack Littell is command-first, among the lighter strikeout arms, and has been homer-prone; Cincinnati got him at the deadline for stability more than whiffs — a risky recipe in this park. Javier Assad, meanwhile, has bounced between rotation and bullpen after an oblique issue, with Chicago toggling his role this month; the low pNERD tracks the modest swing-and-miss.

Context sweetens the watch: the Cubs are already in, but Cincinnati sits two back of the Mets for the final Wild Card, and the Reds just reminded everyone how short the fences play here. Expect balls in play, baserunning noise, and leverage over a strikeout showcase.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 63.7 9.9% 10.5 33.2 28.7 $197.7M 30.6 -2.0 3.01 3.15 — —
Z-score 0.95 1.14 1.51 1.48 -0.10 0.33 1.91 -0.10 1.22 1.62 — —
tNERD 0.95 1.14 1.51 1.48 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.81 4.00 10.40

Cincinnati Reds

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -54.0 7.1% 5.2 -5.1 22.2 $115.7M 28.7 -23.0 2.09 2.11 — —
Z-score -0.77 -1.17 0.71 -0.21 -0.41 -0.77 -0.02 -1.06 -0.59 -0.59 — —
tNERD -0.77 -1.17 0.71 -0.21 -0.41 0.77 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.96

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 120 5.8% 62.8% 92.2 mph 27 16.7s -18 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.14 -2.31 -0.49 -0.78 -0.41 -1.48 — — — —
pNERD -2.28 -1.16 -0.25 0.00 0.41 0.74 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.27

Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 103 9.4% 67.1% 91.9 mph 29 17.9s -12 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.11 -0.59 1.44 -0.91 0.11 -0.51 — — — —
pNERD -0.22 -0.30 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.25

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Miami Marlins @ Texas Rangers, 4:05p

Summary

A “curious watch” more than a must-see: a 9.07 gNERD that leans on Texas’ run-prevention and the volatility of two still-forming starters. If prospect pedigree vs. fresh-callup mystery is your thing—Leiter’s heat and tweaks against Mazur’s first-year shuffle—there’s enough texture to justify a look.

Relative to today’s slate (avg gNERD 10.18) and historical medians, this sits a shade low because the average pNERD (3.61) is dragged by xFIP- marks that don’t scream dominance (Mazur 124, Leiter 111), though Leiter’s velocity pop helps. Texas props up the watchability with plus fielding and baserunning (tNERD components +1.06 and +0.95), while Miami brings youth and a shoestring roster that often means try-stuff-and-see baseball (+1.96 age, +1.42 payroll) and a shakier bullpen. Leiter’s story remains compelling: 97–98 with new two-seam/changeup additions, but recent command wobbles (and even a costly throwing error) underline the ride. Miami just nicked Texas in extras, a reminder the Rangers are wobbling in the race and that chaos is firmly on the menu. Mazur has bounced between starts and bulk duty since his June return to the majors—useful novelty, uneven outcomes. Expect more traffic than whiffs, a brisker Mazur tempo early versus Leiter’s slower pace, and plenty of balls in play to test Texas’ gloves.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Miami Marlins

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -24.5 7.8% -0.4 3.3 5.4 $67.3M 26.8 -5.0 1.79 1.66 — —
Z-score -0.34 -0.59 -0.13 0.16 -1.20 -1.42 -1.96 -0.24 -1.17 -1.54 — —
tNERD -0.34 -0.59 -0.13 0.16 -1.20 1.42 1.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.29

Texas Rangers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -47.0 8.5% 6.8 23.6 37.0 $219.7M 30.4 -28.0 2.01 2.08 — —
Z-score -0.66 -0.02 0.95 1.06 0.29 0.63 1.71 -1.29 -0.74 -0.65 — —
tNERD -0.66 -0.02 0.95 1.06 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.62

Adam Mazur, Miami Marlins

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 124 10.1% 66.7% 94.7 mph 24 17.6s -11 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.38 -0.26 1.23 0.37 -1.20 -0.75 — — — —
pNERD -2.76 -0.13 0.62 0.37 1.20 0.38 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.47

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 111 10.6% 62.4% 97.0 mph 25 20.7s -17 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.60 -0.02 -0.66 1.42 -0.94 1.75 — — — —
pNERD -1.19 -0.01 -0.33 1.42 0.94 -0.88 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.75

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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:05p

Summary

Carlos Rodón’s hot-hand vs. Tomoyuki Sugano’s feel-and-command experiment is the hook here: a sturdy ace-level run-independent profile meeting a crafty MLB newcomer. If you want star thump with lift, the Yankees’ barrel-happy lineup—and a 30–30 Jazz—gives this real watch juice.

This gNERD 8.69 plays like a mid-card tilt lifted by New York’s robust tNERD (elite barrel rate, big batting runs) against Baltimore’s lower-zip team score. On the mound, Rodón’s effectiveness shows up where it should (3.83 FIP) and he’s on a streak of eight straight outings allowing two or fewer runs, a tidy pairing with his slider/fastball backbone. Sugano’s rookie baseline is shakier (4.89 FIP), though he’s been tweaking after potential pitch‑tipping chatter and has recently tightened the screws, which adds some genuine novelty value. He’s also the Orioles’ first 10‑win rookie starter since John Means in 2019, so the “what exactly is he?” factor is alive. Layer in Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s 30–30 arrival and the Yankees’ power profile, and this grades as Yankee‑leaning, mostly for Rodón and the bats rather than the pitching matchup’s pure NERD.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 119.3 11.7% -3.2 2.8 22.7 $290.9M 29.1 12.0 2.08 2.22 — —
Z-score 1.76 2.62 -0.55 0.14 -0.38 1.58 0.38 0.54 -0.61 -0.36 — —
tNERD 1.76 2.62 -0.55 0.14 -0.38 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00 4.00 8.12

Baltimore Orioles

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -21.8 9.1% -0.6 -20.3 17.1 $167.6M 29.2 -5.0 2.82 2.10 — —
Z-score -0.30 0.48 -0.16 -0.88 -0.65 -0.07 0.49 -0.24 0.85 -0.61 — —
tNERD -0.30 0.48 -0.16 -0.88 -0.65 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 4.00 2.99

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 93 12.1% 62.3% 93.8 mph 32 18.5s -16 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.49 0.70 -0.70 -0.04 0.90 -0.02 — — — —
pNERD 0.99 0.35 -0.35 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.80

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 112 7.9% 63.2% 92.8 mph 35 19.0s -4 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.66 -1.31 -0.33 -0.50 1.68 0.38 — — — —
pNERD -1.31 -0.65 -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.48

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Atlanta Braves @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Old-friend alert with standings spice: ex-Tiger Joey Wentz draws Detroit’s Keider Montero just as the Tigers’ division lead has shrunk and Atlanta arrives on a six-game run-scoring binge. It’s Wentz vs. his former club, Montero off five scoreless last time, and two shaky bullpens that could make the late frames lively.

At a gNERD of 8.31, this sits a bit below today’s slate average, but Detroit’s strong tNERD (7.10) nudges watchability up thanks to better barrels and actual on-base action, plus plus baserunning, even if their pen can wobble. Atlanta’s tNERD (2.50) drags, with poor baserunning and a below-par pen, though the defense is sturdy. On the mound, Montero (pNERD 4.54) profiles as the steadier watch: decent strike rate and youth-driven upside, and he’s fresh off a clean five-inning outing. Wentz (pNERD 2.48) brings fewer whiffs and a slower pace, but the revenge-visit angle has juice.

Context helps: the Braves just pounded Detroit and have been piling up runs, while the Tigers’ recent slide has tightened the AL Central race, adding stakes without guaranteeing outcomes. If you want plot with potential chaos, this plays; if you’re here for premium stuff, the arms are more mortal than must-see.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Atlanta Braves

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -5.2 8.7% -8.5 8.1 10.1 $216.2M 29.4 8.0 2.36 2.36 — —
Z-score -0.05 0.15 -1.35 0.37 -0.98 0.58 0.69 0.36 -0.05 -0.06 — —
tNERD -0.05 0.15 -1.35 0.37 -0.98 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 4.00 2.50

Detroit Tigers

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 22.1 9.6% 5.4 4.4 5.8 $148.2M 27.6 -26.0 2.74 2.64 — —
Z-score 0.34 0.89 0.74 0.21 -1.18 -0.33 -1.14 -1.20 0.69 0.54 — —
tNERD 0.34 0.89 0.74 0.21 -1.18 0.33 1.14 0.00 0.34 0.27 4.00 7.10

Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 108 10.4% 63.6% 93.5 mph 27 20.6s 23 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.41 -0.11 -0.13 -0.18 -0.41 1.67 — — — —
pNERD -0.83 -0.06 -0.07 0.00 0.41 -0.84 0.05 0.00 3.80 2.48

Keider Montero, Detroit Tigers

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 106 8.6% 67.0% 93.9 mph 24 18.7s -1 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.29 -0.98 1.37 0.00 -1.20 0.14 — — — —
pNERD -0.59 -0.49 0.68 0.00 1.20 -0.07 0.00 0.00 3.80 4.54

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San Diego Padres @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

A mid-tier gNERD with playoff stakes: Padres-on-a-mission versus Sox-in-evaluation mode. If Yu Darvish’s command shows up and Yoendrys Gómez avoids the barrel parade, there’s just enough intrigue to merit a click, if not a calendar alert.

The gNERD (7.31) sits below today’s average, and that tracks: pNERD is light (Darvish 3.56; Gómez 0.89), so the draw tilts toward San Diego’s superior team profile (tNERD 7.36) rather than a duel of aces. Darvish’s underlying run prevention is roughly league average by xFIP- (99) and he works at a deliberate pace; it’s the Padres’ deep relief corps that elevates watchability if he exits early. Gómez brings youth and volatility—an elevated xFIP- (122) and iffy strikes—but also the intrigue of a late-season audition as a converted starter. San Diego just dropped the opener 4–3, yet remains in a tight race, trailing the Dodgers in the West while holding a wild-card cushion; Chicago, meanwhile, is playing spoiler with Miguel Vargas back and contributing. That context supplies tension even if the pitch-model fireworks are muted.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat 10.8 7.3% -0.5 -5.8 68.9 $209.3M 30.0 15.0 3.47 3.37 — —
Z-score 0.18 -1.00 -0.15 -0.24 1.79 0.49 1.30 0.68 2.12 2.09 — —
tNERD 0.18 -1.00 -0.15 -0.24 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.68 1.06 1.04 4.00 7.36

Chicago White Sox

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -83.0 7.9% -6.7 -35.6 40.4 $79.0M 27.5 -19.0 1.82 2.57 — —
Z-score -1.19 -0.51 -1.08 -1.56 0.45 -1.26 -1.25 -0.88 -1.11 0.39 — —
tNERD -1.19 -0.51 -1.08 -1.56 0.45 1.26 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.19 4.00 2.82

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 99 10.2% 64.9% 93.7 mph 38 20.2s 39 0.0% — —
Z-score -0.13 -0.21 0.45 -0.09 2.47 1.35 — — — —
pNERD 0.26 -0.11 0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.67 0.05 0.00 3.80 3.56

Yoendrys Gómez, Chicago White Sox

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 122 10.7% 61.8% 93.7 mph 25 20.7s -3 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.26 0.03 -0.93 -0.09 -0.94 1.75 — — — —
pNERD -2.52 0.01 -0.46 0.00 0.94 -0.88 0.00 0.00 3.80 0.89

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Los Angeles Angels @ Colorado Rockies, 5:10p

Summary

This is the basement of watchability: the slate’s lowest gNERD collides with a Rockies team trying to sidestep the record books for all the wrong reasons. Still, Coors chaos plus two contact-heavy starters might accidentally make this weirdly entertaining.

gNERD 1.63 sits well below both today’s average and the historical median, with tNERDs that scream “proceed at your own risk” (Angels 1.40; Rockies -0.89). The arms don’t rescue it: pNERDs of 1.86 (Hendricks) and 0.89 (Márquez) track with below-average underlying skill, led by xFIP- marks of 117 and 126 and minimal whiff rates. Hendricks’ 86 mph profile and tiny SwStr% invite balls in play; Márquez is just back from a biceps issue and hasn’t missed many bats since returning. If you like contact and baserunning bedlam, Coors’ elevated BABIP environment (.332 since 2015) reliably inflates both.

If you need a storyline, Colorado just avoided matching the 2024 White Sox and still needs wins to dodge the 1962 Mets’ loss mark, while the Angels arrive on an eight-game slide. The Angels at least bring barrels (10.6%), but dreadful fielding and spotty bullpens on both sides point toward high-variance mess rather than crisp pitching. Hendricks did spin seven scoreless his last time out, but this venue punishes optimism.

(A model from OpenAI generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -53.8 10.6% 1.3 -54.9 -0.1 $203.8M 29.2 -18.0 2.59 2.01 — —
Z-score -0.76 1.71 0.13 -2.41 -1.46 0.41 0.49 -0.83 0.40 -0.80 — —
tNERD -0.76 1.71 0.13 -2.41 -1.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 4.00 1.40

Colorado Rockies

Batting runs Barrel % Baserunning runs Fielding runs Bullpen runs Payroll Age Luck TV Radio Constant Total
Raw stat -160.4 7.9% -9.8 -24.4 -7.1 $125.9M 27.9 19.0 1.73 1.80 — —
Z-score -2.32 -0.51 -1.55 -1.06 -1.79 -0.63 -0.84 0.86 -1.29 -1.25 — —
tNERD -2.32 -0.51 -1.55 -1.06 -1.79 0.63 0.84 0.86 0.00 0.00 4.00 -0.89

Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 117 7.7% 66.7% 86.4 mph 35 18.5s 4 0.0% — —
Z-score 0.96 -1.41 1.23 -3.43 1.68 -0.02 — — — —
pNERD -1.92 -0.70 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.00 3.80 1.86

Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies

xFIP- SwStr% Strike % Velocity Age Pace Luck KN% Constant Total
Raw stat 126 8.3% 62.2% 94.8 mph 30 17.1s 13 0.0% — —
Z-score 1.50 -1.12 -0.78 0.41 0.37 -1.16 — — — —
pNERD -3.01 -0.56 -0.39 0.41 0.00 0.58 0.05 0.00 3.80 0.89

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